Addressing Deep Uncertainty Using Adaptive Policies: Introduction to Section 2. Walker, W. E., Marchau, V. A. W. J., & Swanson, D. 77(6):917–923.
Addressing Deep Uncertainty Using Adaptive Policies: Introduction to Section 2 [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
[Excerpt] In a broad sense, uncertainty can be simply defined as missing knowledge; i.e., the absence of information. With respect to policymaking, uncertainty refers to the gap between available knowledge and the knowledge policymakers would need in order to make the best policy choice. This uncertainty clearly involves subjectivity, since it is related to satisfaction with existing knowledge, which is colored by the underlying values and perspectives of the policymaker (and the various actors involved in the policymaking process). Uncertainty can be associated with all aspects of a policy problem (e.g., the system of interest, the world outside the system, the outcomes from the system, the weights stakeholders place on the various outcomes, etc.). [...] Ignoring uncertainty could lead to large adverse consequences for people, countries, and the earth's ecosystems, and policymakers have an interest in minimizing the possibility that these would happen. So, policy analysts and policymakers must accept, understand, and manage uncertainty, since: [::] crystal balls do not exist, so uncertainties about the future cannot be eliminated; [::] ignoring uncertainty can result in poor policies, missed chances and opportunities, and lead to inefficient use of resources; and [::] ignoring uncertainty could mean that we limit our ability to take corrective action in the future and end up in situations that could have been avoided. [] [...] Finally, some cross-cutting challenges for future research on adaptive policies can be identified from a review of the papers contained in this section. These are summarized below: [::] Tools and methods for developing adaptive policies: Adaptive policymaking is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late. While the need for adaptation is increasingly acknowledged, it is still a developing concept, and requires the further development of specific tools and methods for its operationalization. [::] Costs and benefits of adaptive policies vs. traditional static policies: A key issue in adaptive policies is how to cope with the risk of under-investing and over-investing (or wrongly investing) in future policies. Also, the initial costs of an adaptive policy are often higher than those of a static policy. An in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of adaptive policies (as compared to traditional static policies) is required. [::] The efficacy of adaptive policies vs. traditional static policies: There are few examples of the actual implementation of adaptive policies. One important reason for this lack of application is that their efficacy has not yet been established [21]. Evidence on the efficacy of adaptive policies compared to traditional static policies can help to convince policymakers and stakeholders to adopt adaptive policies. [::] Institutional implications of adaptive policymaking: The development and execution of adaptive polices is influenced by the institutional framework. An important question is whether institutions have the capability to cope with deep uncertainty.
@article{walkerAddressingDeepUncertainty2010,
  title = {Addressing Deep Uncertainty Using Adaptive Policies: Introduction to Section 2},
  author = {Walker, Warren E. and Marchau, Vincent A. W. J. and Swanson, Darren},
  date = {2010-07},
  journaltitle = {Technological Forecasting and Social Change},
  volume = {77},
  pages = {917--923},
  issn = {0040-1625},
  doi = {10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.004},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.04.004},
  abstract = {[Excerpt] In a broad sense, uncertainty can be simply defined as missing knowledge; i.e., the absence of information. With respect to policymaking, uncertainty refers to the gap between available knowledge and the knowledge policymakers would need in order to make the best policy choice. This uncertainty clearly involves subjectivity, since it is related to satisfaction with existing knowledge, which is colored by the underlying values and perspectives of the policymaker (and the various actors involved in the policymaking process). Uncertainty can be associated with all aspects of a policy problem (e.g., the system of interest, the world outside the system, the outcomes from the system, the weights stakeholders place on the various outcomes, etc.). [...] Ignoring uncertainty could lead to large adverse consequences for people, countries, and the earth's ecosystems, and policymakers have an interest in minimizing the possibility that these would happen. So, policy analysts and policymakers must accept, understand, and manage uncertainty, since:

[::] crystal balls do not exist, so uncertainties about the future cannot be eliminated; [::] ignoring uncertainty can result in poor policies, missed chances and opportunities, and lead to inefficient use of resources; and [::] ignoring uncertainty could mean that we limit our ability to take corrective action in the future and end up in situations that could have been avoided.

[] [...] Finally, some cross-cutting challenges for future research on adaptive policies can be identified from a review of the papers contained in this section. These are summarized below:

[::] Tools and methods for developing adaptive policies: Adaptive policymaking is a way of dealing with deep uncertainty that falls between too much precaution and acting too late. While the need for adaptation is increasingly acknowledged, it is still a developing concept, and requires the further development of specific tools and methods for its operationalization.

[::] Costs and benefits of adaptive policies vs. traditional static policies: A key issue in adaptive policies is how to cope with the risk of under-investing and over-investing (or wrongly investing) in future policies. Also, the initial costs of an adaptive policy are often higher than those of a static policy. An in-depth analysis of the costs and benefits of adaptive policies (as compared to traditional static policies) is required.

[::] The efficacy of adaptive policies vs. traditional static policies: There are few examples of the actual implementation of adaptive policies. One important reason for this lack of application is that their efficacy has not yet been established [21]. Evidence on the efficacy of adaptive policies compared to traditional static policies can help to convince policymakers and stakeholders to adopt adaptive policies.

[::] Institutional implications of adaptive policymaking: The development and execution of adaptive polices is influenced by the institutional framework. An important question is whether institutions have the capability to cope with deep uncertainty.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7148583,adaptive-control,control-problem,deep-uncertainty,multi-criteria-decision-analysis,multi-objective-planning,multi-stakeholder-decision-making,multiplicity,resilience,robust-modelling,science-policy-interface,uncertainty},
  number = {6}
}
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