Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: the case of botulinum toxin in milk. Wein, L. M. & Liu, Y. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102(28):9984–9989, 2005. 00275
Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: the case of botulinum toxin in milk [link]Paper  abstract   bibtex   
We developed a mathematical model of a cows-to-consumers supply chain associated with a single milk-processing facility that is the victim of a deliberate release of botulinum toxin. Because centralized storage and processing lead to substantial dilution of the toxin, a minimum amount of toxin is required for the release to do damage. Irreducible uncertainties regarding the dose–response curve prevent us from quantifying the minimum effective release. However, if terrorists can obtain enough toxin, and this may well be possible, then rapid distribution and consumption result in several hundred thousand poisoned individuals if detection from early symptomatics is not timely. Timely and specific in-process testing has the potential to eliminate the threat of this scenario at a cost of \textless1 cent per gallon and should be pursued aggressively. Investigation of improving the toxin inactivation rate of heat pasteurization without sacrificing taste or nutrition is warranted.
@article{wein_analyzing_2005,
	title = {Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: the case of botulinum toxin in milk},
	volume = {102},
	shorttitle = {Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/102/28/9984.short},
	abstract = {We developed a mathematical model of a cows-to-consumers supply chain associated with a single milk-processing facility that is the victim of a deliberate release of botulinum toxin. Because centralized storage and processing lead to substantial dilution of the toxin, a minimum amount of toxin is required for the release to do damage. Irreducible uncertainties regarding the dose–response curve prevent us from quantifying the minimum effective release. However, if terrorists can obtain enough toxin, and this may well be possible, then rapid distribution and consumption result in several hundred thousand poisoned individuals if detection from early symptomatics is not timely. Timely and specific in-process testing has the potential to eliminate the threat of this scenario at a cost of {\textless}1 cent per gallon and should be pursued aggressively. Investigation of improving the toxin inactivation rate of heat pasteurization without sacrificing taste or nutrition is warranted.},
	number = {28},
	urldate = {2014-11-28},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
	author = {Wein, Lawrence M. and Liu, Yifan},
	year = {2005},
	note = {00275},
	keywords = {collapse, agriculture-food-famine, systemic-risks},
	pages = {9984--9989},
	file = {Wein and Liu - 2005 - Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply t.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\CK7MJ7W5\\Wein and Liu - 2005 - Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply t.pdf:application/pdf}
}

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