Risk factors for COVID-19 death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Western Cape Department of Health in collaboration with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases Clinical Infectious Diseases, 73(7):e2005–e2015, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2021.
Risk factors for COVID-19 death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Background Risk factors for COVID-19 death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of HIV and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. Methods We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox-proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, location and comorbidities to examine the association between HIV, tuberculosis and COVID-19 death from 1 March-9 June 2020 among (i) public sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020), (ii) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases and (iii) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19 comparing HIV positive vs. negative adults using modelled population estimates. Results Among 3,460,932 patients (16% HIV positive), 22,308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID-19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral load and immunosuppression. Current and previous tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR [95%CI] 2.70 [1.81-4.04] and 1.51 [1.18-1.93] respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95%CI 1.96-2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5% (95%CI 6.1-11.1). Conclusion While our findings may over-estimate HIV- and tuberculosis-associated COVID-19 mortality risks due to residual confounding, both HIV and current tuberculosis were independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality. The associations between age, sex and other comorbidities and COVID-19 mortality were similar to other settings.
@article{Boulle2020,
abstract = {Background Risk factors for COVID-19 death in sub-Saharan Africa and the effects of HIV and tuberculosis on COVID-19 outcomes are unknown. Methods We conducted a population cohort study using linked data from adults attending public sector health facilities in the Western Cape, South Africa. We used Cox-proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, location and comorbidities to examine the association between HIV, tuberculosis and COVID-19 death from 1 March-9 June 2020 among (i) public sector “active patients” (≥1 visit in the 3 years before March 2020), (ii) laboratory-diagnosed COVID-19 cases and (iii) hospitalized COVID-19 cases. We calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) for COVID-19 comparing HIV positive vs. negative adults using modelled population estimates. Results Among 3,460,932 patients (16{\%} HIV positive), 22,308 were diagnosed with COVID-19, of whom 625 died. COVID-19 death was associated with male sex, increasing age, diabetes, hypertension and chronic kidney disease. HIV was associated with COVID-19 mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.14; 95{\%} confidence interval [CI] 1.70-2.70), with similar risks across strata of viral load and immunosuppression. Current and previous tuberculosis were associated with COVID-19 death (aHR [95{\%}CI] 2.70 [1.81-4.04] and 1.51 [1.18-1.93] respectively). The SMR for COVID-19 death associated with HIV was 2.39 (95{\%}CI 1.96-2.86); population attributable fraction 8.5{\%} (95{\%}CI 6.1-11.1). Conclusion While our findings may over-estimate HIV- and tuberculosis-associated COVID-19 mortality risks due to residual confounding, both HIV and current tuberculosis were independently associated with increased COVID-19 mortality. The associations between age, sex and other comorbidities and COVID-19 mortality were similar to other settings.},
author = {{Western Cape Department of Health in collaboration with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases}},
doi = {10.1093/cid/ciaa1198},
file = {:C$\backslash$:/Users/01462563/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Western Cape Department of Health in collaboration with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases - 2021 - Risk factors for COVID.pdf:pdf;:C$\backslash$:/Users/01462563/AppData/Local/Mendeley Ltd./Mendeley Desktop/Downloaded/Western Cape Department of Health in collaboration with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases - 2021 - Risk factors for CO(2).pdf:pdf},
issn = {1058-4838},
journal = {Clinical Infectious Diseases},
keywords = {OA,africa south of the sahara,covid-19,fund{\_}ack,original,south africa,tuberculosis and hiv},
mendeley-tags = {OA,fund{\_}ack,original},
number = {7},
pages = {e2005--e2015},
pmid = {32860699},
publisher = {Oxford University Press (OUP)},
title = {{Risk factors for COVID-19 death in a population cohort study from the Western Cape Province, South Africa}},
url = {https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1198/5899044},
volume = {73},
year = {2021}
}

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