Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees. Yang, Z. & Zhu, T. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, National Acad Sciences, 2018.
bibtex   
@Article{yang18bayesian,
  author    = {Yang, Ziheng and Zhu, Tianqi},
  title     = {Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  year      = {2018},
  pages     = {201712673},
  publisher = {National Acad Sciences},
}
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