Alpine Glaciers to Disappear within Decades?. Zemp, M., Haeberli, W., Hoelzle, M., & Paul, F. Geophysical Research Letters, 2006. doi abstract bibtex Past, present and potential future glacier cover in the entire European Alps has been assessed from an integrated approach, combining in-situ measurements, remote sensing techniques and numerical modeling for equilibrium line altitudes. Alpine glaciers lost 35\,% of their total area from 1850 until the 1970s, and almost 50\,% by 2000. Total glacier volume around 1850 is estimated at some 200 km3 and is now close to one-third of this value. From the model experiment, we show that a 3°C warming of summer air temperature would reduce the currently existing Alpine glacier cover by some 80\,%, or up to 10\,% of the glacier extent of 1850. In the event of a 5°C temperature increase, the Alps would become almost completely ice-free. Annual precipitation changes of $\pm$20\,% would modify such estimated percentages of remaining ice by a factor of less than two.
@article{zempAlpineGlaciersDisappear2006,
title = {Alpine Glaciers to Disappear within Decades?},
author = {Zemp, Michael and Haeberli, Wilfried and Hoelzle, Martin and Paul, Frank},
year = {2006},
volume = {33},
issn = {0094-8276},
doi = {10.1029/2006gl026319},
abstract = {Past, present and potential future glacier cover in the entire European Alps has been assessed from an integrated approach, combining in-situ measurements, remote sensing techniques and numerical modeling for equilibrium line altitudes. Alpine glaciers lost 35\,\% of their total area from 1850 until the 1970s, and almost 50\,\% by 2000. Total glacier volume around 1850 is estimated at some 200 km3 and is now close to one-third of this value. From the model experiment, we show that a 3\textdegree C warming of summer air temperature would reduce the currently existing Alpine glacier cover by some 80\,\%, or up to 10\,\% of the glacier extent of 1850. In the event of a 5\textdegree C temperature increase, the Alps would become almost completely ice-free. Annual precipitation changes of {$\pm$}20\,\% would modify such estimated percentages of remaining ice by a factor of less than two.},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13113559,alpine-region,climate-change,glaciers,global-warming},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13113559},
number = {13}
}
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