The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis. Zhang, D. D., Lee, H. F., Wang, C., Li, B., Pei, Q., Zhang, J., & An, Y. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(42):17296–17301, October, 2011. ![The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.
@article{zhang_causality_2011,
title = {The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis},
volume = {108},
copyright = {© . Freely available online through the PNAS open access option.},
issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/108/42/17296},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1104268108},
abstract = {Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560–1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined “golden” and “dark” ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.},
language = {en},
number = {42},
urldate = {2018-10-07},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
author = {Zhang, David D. and Lee, Harry F. and Wang, Cong and Li, Baosheng and Pei, Qing and Zhang, Jane and An, Yulun},
month = oct,
year = {2011},
pmid = {21969578},
keywords = {Granger Causality Analysis, climate-driven economy, grain price},
pages = {17296--17301},
}
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