Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates. Zhao, C., Liu, B., Piao, S., Wang, X., Lobell, D. B., Huang, Y., Huang, M., Yao, Y., Bassu, S., Ciais, P., Durand, J., Elliott, J., Ewert, F., Janssens, I. A., Li, T., Lin, E., Liu, Q., Martre, P., Müller, C., Peng, S., Peñuelas, J., Ruane, A. C., Wallach, D., Wang, T., Wu, D., Liu, Z., Zhu, Y., Zhu, Z., & Asseng, S. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August, 2017.
Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates [link]Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   
Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.
@article{zhao_temperature_2017,
	title = {Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/08/10/1701762114.abstract},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.1701762114},
	abstract = {Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0\%, rice by 3.2\%, maize by 7.4\%, and soybean by 3.1\%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Zhao, Chuang and Liu, Bing and Piao, Shilong and Wang, Xuhui and Lobell, David B. and Huang, Yao and Huang, Mengtian and Yao, Yitong and Bassu, Simona and Ciais, Philippe and Durand, Jean-Louis and Elliott, Joshua and Ewert, Frank and Janssens, Ivan A. and Li, Tao and Lin, Erda and Liu, Qiang and Martre, Pierre and Müller, Christoph and Peng, Shushi and Peñuelas, Josep and Ruane, Alex C. and Wallach, Daniel and Wang, Tao and Wu, Donghai and Liu, Zhuo and Zhu, Yan and Zhu, Zaichun and Asseng, Senthold},
	month = aug,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {GA, Untagged},
}
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