Keyword: uncertainty
2024 (2)
Robust and Adaptive Rough Terrain Navigation Through Training in Varied Simulated Dynamics. Wang, S. J., Teng, S. H., & Johnson, A. M. In ICRA Workshop on Resilient Off-road Autonomy, 2024.
![Robust and Adaptive Rough Terrain Navigation Through Training in Varied Simulated Dynamics [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Info Pdf Video bibtex 10 downloads
Info Pdf Video bibtex 10 downloads @inproceedings{abs:wang-robust-2024,
title = {Robust and Adaptive Rough Terrain Navigation Through Training in Varied Simulated Dynamics},
author = {Sean J. Wang and Si Heng Teng and Aaron M. Johnson},
booktitle = {ICRA Workshop on Resilient Off-road Autonomy},
year = {2024},
type = {workshop poster},
keywords = {Learning, Modeling, Uncertainty},
url_Info = {https://theairlab.org/icra2024_offroad_workshop/},
url_PDF = {https://openreview.net/pdf?id=CAbuIrSY5m},
url_Video = {https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_vnObbZKEo}
}Reinforcement learning and meta-decision-making. Verbeke, Pieter & Verguts, T. CURRENT OPINION IN BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, 57:6, 2024.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex A key aspect of cognitive flexibility is to efficiently make use of earlier experience to attain one's goals. This requires learning, but also a modular, and more specifically hierarchical, structure. We hold that both are required, but combining them leads to several computational challenges that brains and artificial agents (learn to) deal with. In a hierarchical structure, metadecisions must be made, of which two types can be distinguished. First, a (meta-)decision may involve choosing which (lower-level) modules to select (module choice). Second, it may consist of choosing appropriate parameter settings within a module (parameter tuning). Furthermore, prediction error monitoring may allow determining the right meta-decision (module choice or parameter tuning). We discuss computational challenges and empirical evidence relative to how these two meta-decisions may be implemented to support learning for cognitive flexibility.
@article{01HQ7VEBHM96KX3FE8GBECHJRT,
abstract = {{A key aspect of cognitive flexibility is to efficiently make use of earlier experience to attain one's goals. This requires learning, but also a modular, and more specifically hierarchical, structure. We hold that both are required, but combining them leads to several computational challenges that brains and artificial agents (learn to) deal with. In a hierarchical structure, metadecisions must be made, of which two types can be distinguished. First, a (meta-)decision may involve choosing which (lower-level) modules to select (module choice). Second, it may consist of choosing appropriate parameter settings within a module (parameter tuning). Furthermore, prediction error monitoring may allow determining the right meta-decision (module choice or parameter tuning). We discuss computational challenges and empirical evidence relative to how these two meta-decisions may be implemented to support learning for cognitive flexibility.}},
articleno = {{101374}},
author = {{Verbeke, Pieter and Verguts, Tom}},
issn = {{2352-1546}},
journal = {{CURRENT OPINION IN BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES}},
keywords = {{ANTERIOR CINGULATE CORTEX,INTEGRATIVE THEORY,UNCERTAINTY,COGNITION,RHYTHMS,MODEL}},
language = {{eng}},
pages = {{6}},
title = {{Reinforcement learning and meta-decision-making}},
url = {{http://doi.org/10.1016/j.cobeha.2024.101374}},
volume = {{57}},
year = {{2024}},
}2022 (1)
Don’t let Ricci v. DeStefano Hold You Back: A Bias-Aware Legal Solution to the Hiring Paradox. Salem, J., Desai, D., & Gupta, S. In Proceedings of the 2022 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency, of FAccT '22, pages 651–666, New York, NY, USA, 2022. Association for Computing Machinery.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Companies that try to address inequality in employment face a hiring paradox. Failing to address workforce imbalance can result in legal sanctions and scrutiny, but proactive measures to address these issues might result in the same legal conflict. Recent run-ins of Microsoft and Wells Fargo with the Labor Department’s Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP) are not isolated and are likely to persist. To add to the confusion, existing scholarship on Ricci v. DeStefano often deems solutions to this paradox impossible. Circumventive practices such as the 4/5ths rule further illustrate tensions between too little action and too much action. In this work, we give a powerful way to solve this hiring paradox that tracks both legal and algorithmic challenges. We unpack the nuances of Ricci v. DeStefano and extend the legal literature arguing that certain algorithmic approaches to employment are allowed by introducing the legal practice of banding to evaluate candidates. We thus show that a bias-aware technique can be used to diagnose and mitigate “built-in” headwinds in the employment pipeline. We use the machinery of partially ordered sets to handle the presence of uncertainty in evaluations data. This approach allows us to move away from treating “people as numbers” to treating people as individuals—a property that is sought after by Title VII in the context of employment.
@inproceedings{10.1145/3531146.3533129,
author = {Salem, Jad and Desai, Deven and Gupta, Swati},
title = {Don’t let Ricci v. DeStefano Hold You Back: A Bias-Aware Legal Solution to the Hiring Paradox},
year = {2022},
isbn = {9781450393522},
publisher = {Association for Computing Machinery},
address = {New York, NY, USA},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1145/3531146.3533129},
doi = {10.1145/3531146.3533129},
abstract = {Companies that try to address inequality in employment face a hiring paradox. Failing to address workforce imbalance can result in legal sanctions and scrutiny, but proactive measures to address these issues might result in the same legal conflict. Recent run-ins of Microsoft and Wells Fargo with the Labor Department’s Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs (OFCCP) are not isolated and are likely to persist. To add to the confusion, existing scholarship on Ricci v. DeStefano often deems solutions to this paradox impossible. Circumventive practices such as the 4/5ths rule further illustrate tensions between too little action and too much action. In this work, we give a powerful way to solve this hiring paradox that tracks both legal and algorithmic challenges. We unpack the nuances of Ricci v. DeStefano and extend the legal literature arguing that certain algorithmic approaches to employment are allowed by introducing the legal practice of banding to evaluate candidates. We thus show that a bias-aware technique can be used to diagnose and mitigate “built-in” headwinds in the employment pipeline. We use the machinery of partially ordered sets to handle the presence of uncertainty in evaluations data. This approach allows us to move away from treating “people as numbers” to treating people as individuals—a property that is sought after by Title VII in the context of employment.},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2022 ACM Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency},
pages = {651–666},
numpages = {16},
keywords = {anti-discrimination laws, bias, hiring, resume screening, uncertainty},
location = {<conf-loc>, <city>Seoul</city>, <country>Republic of Korea</country>, </conf-loc>},
series = {FAccT '22}
}2021 (1)
On the Development of a Tether-based Drone Localization System. Lima, R. R. & Pereira, G. A. S. In 2021 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS), pages 195–201, June, 2021. ISSN: 2575-7296
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
This paper proposes an approach for localization of tethered drones using information from the shape of the tether and the vehicles' inertial data. Our approach relies on the fact that, in static or quasi-static conditions, a flexible tether will assume a catenary shape, thus allowing the use of known equations to formulate the localization algorithm. These equations are based on tether variables such as tether length, tension, and azimuth and elevation angles on both endpoints. To deal with uncertainties and to improve localization performance, a sensor fusion algorithm based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is applied. In this preliminary validation, we tested our method through experiments with a static real-world tether, and simulations with a drone in slow flight. In both cases, the proposed method successfully estimated positions in the presence of noisy measurements.
@inproceedings{lima_development_2021,
title = {On the {Development} of a {Tether}-based {Drone} {Localization} {System}},
doi = {10.1109/ICUAS51884.2021.9476778},
abstract = {This paper proposes an approach for localization of tethered drones using information from the shape of the tether and the vehicles' inertial data. Our approach relies on the fact that, in static or quasi-static conditions, a flexible tether will assume a catenary shape, thus allowing the use of known equations to formulate the localization algorithm. These equations are based on tether variables such as tether length, tension, and azimuth and elevation angles on both endpoints. To deal with uncertainties and to improve localization performance, a sensor fusion algorithm based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is applied. In this preliminary validation, we tested our method through experiments with a static real-world tether, and simulations with a drone in slow flight. In both cases, the proposed method successfully estimated positions in the presence of noisy measurements.},
booktitle = {2021 {International} {Conference} on {Unmanned} {Aircraft} {Systems} ({ICUAS})},
author = {Lima, Rogerio R. and Pereira, Guilherme A. S.},
month = jun,
year = {2021},
note = {ISSN: 2575-7296},
keywords = {Azimuth, Location awareness, Mathematical model, Position measurement, Sensor fusion, Shape, Uncertainty},
pages = {195--201},
}2019 (1)
Investigation of maximum cooling loss in a piping network using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Huang, P., Augenbroe, G., Huang, G., & Sun, Y. Journal of Building Performance Simulation, 12(2):117–132, March, 2019.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Cooling loss during transmission from cooling sources (chillers) to cooling end-users (conditioned zones) is prevalent in HVAC systems. At the HVAC design stage, incomplete understanding of the cooling loss may lead to improper sizing of HVAC systems, which in turn may result in additional energy consumption and economic cost (if oversized) or lead to inadequate thermal comfort (if under-sized). For HVAC system sizing or retrofit, there is a lack of study of uncertainties associated with the maximum cooling loss of HVAC systems although uncertainties in predicting building maximum cooling load have been studied by many researchers. This paper, therefore, proposes a study to investigate the uncertainties associated with the major parameters in predicting the maximum cooling loss in HVAC piping networks using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Prior information of those uncertainties combined with available in-situ data, is implemented to produce more informative posterior descriptions of the uncertainties. To facilitate the application, uncertain parameters are categorized into specific and generic types. The posterior information gathered for the specific parameters can be used in retrofit analysis, whereas that acquired for the generic parameters can be referred to in new HVAC system design. Details of the proposed methodology are illustrated by applying it to a real HVAC system.
@article{huang_investigation_2019,
title = {Investigation of maximum cooling loss in a piping network using {Bayesian} {Markov} {Chain} {Monte} {Carlo} method},
volume = {12},
issn = {1940-1493},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/19401493.2018.1487998},
doi = {10.1080/19401493.2018.1487998},
abstract = {Cooling loss during transmission from cooling sources (chillers) to cooling end-users (conditioned zones) is prevalent in HVAC systems. At the HVAC design stage, incomplete understanding of the cooling loss may lead to improper sizing of HVAC systems, which in turn may result in additional energy consumption and economic cost (if oversized) or lead to inadequate thermal comfort (if under-sized). For HVAC system sizing or retrofit, there is a lack of study of uncertainties associated with the maximum cooling loss of HVAC systems although uncertainties in predicting building maximum cooling load have been studied by many researchers. This paper, therefore, proposes a study to investigate the uncertainties associated with the major parameters in predicting the maximum cooling loss in HVAC piping networks using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Prior information of those uncertainties combined with available in-situ data, is implemented to produce more informative posterior descriptions of the uncertainties. To facilitate the application, uncertain parameters are categorized into specific and generic types. The posterior information gathered for the specific parameters can be used in retrofit analysis, whereas that acquired for the generic parameters can be referred to in new HVAC system design. Details of the proposed methodology are illustrated by applying it to a real HVAC system.},
number = {2},
urldate = {2019-01-06},
journal = {Journal of Building Performance Simulation},
author = {Huang, Pei and Augenbroe, Godfried and Huang, Gongsheng and Sun, Yongjun},
month = mar,
year = {2019},
keywords = {Bayesian inference, HVAC, Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling, capacity loss, uncertainty},
pages = {117--132},
}2018 (4)
Numerical Methods for the Estimation of the Impact of Geometric Uncertainties on the Performance of Electromagnetic Devices. Bontinck, Z. Ph.D. Thesis, Technische Universität Darmstadt, Darmstadt, November, 2018.
bibtex
bibtex
@PhDThesis{ Bontinck_2018af,
address = {Darmstadt},
author = {Bontinck, Zeger},
day = {2},
eprint = {urn:nbn:de:tuda-tuprints-83302},
eprinttype = {urn},
file = {Bontinck_2018af.pdf},
keywords = {machine,pmsm,iga,optimization,uncertainty},
langid = {english},
month = nov,
school = {Technische Universität Darmstadt},
title = {Numerical Methods for the Estimation of the Impact of Geometric Uncertainties on the Performance of Electromagnetic Devices},
type = {Dissertation},
year = {2018}
}Towards a Framework for Realizable Safety Critical Control through Active Set Invariance. Gurriet, T., Singletary, A., Reher, J., Ciarletta, L., Feron, E., & Ames, A. In 2018 ACM/IEEE 9th International Conference on Cyber-Physical Systems (ICCPS), pages 98–106, April, 2018.
doi abstract bibtex 3 downloads
doi abstract bibtex 3 downloads
This paper presents initial results towards a realizable framework for the safety critical controlled invariance of cyber-physical systems. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a control barrier function based methodology which can be used to enforce set invariance on systems in the presence of non-linear disturbances and uncertainty. The first part of this work is a review of the current methods available for finding viable sets and how they are linked to practical choices regarding safety. Their limitations and directions towards improvements when it comes to handling model uncertainty are also highlighted. The second part of this work is the formulation of a condition which can guarantee set invariance in the presence of generic uncertain in the dynamics. An associated optimization problem to enforce that condition is proposed and a method to convexify the problem and make it solvable in real-time is formally presented. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated experimentally on a two-wheeled inverted pendulum.
@inproceedings{gurriet_towards_2018,
title = {Towards a {Framework} for {Realizable} {Safety} {Critical} {Control} through {Active} {Set} {Invariance}},
copyright = {6.5/10},
doi = {10.1109/ICCPS.2018.00018},
abstract = {This paper presents initial results towards a realizable framework for the safety critical controlled invariance of cyber-physical systems. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a control barrier function based methodology which can be used to enforce set invariance on systems in the presence of non-linear disturbances and uncertainty. The first part of this work is a review of the current methods available for finding viable sets and how they are linked to practical choices regarding safety. Their limitations and directions towards improvements when it comes to handling model uncertainty are also highlighted. The second part of this work is the formulation of a condition which can guarantee set invariance in the presence of generic uncertain in the dynamics. An associated optimization problem to enforce that condition is proposed and a method to convexify the problem and make it solvable in real-time is formally presented. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is illustrated experimentally on a two-wheeled inverted pendulum.},
booktitle = {2018 {ACM}/{IEEE} 9th {International} {Conference} on {Cyber}-{Physical} {Systems} ({ICCPS})},
author = {Gurriet, Thomas and Singletary, Andrew and Reher, Jacob and Ciarletta, Laurent and Feron, Eric and Ames, Aaron},
month = apr,
year = {2018},
keywords = {Barrier functions, Control systems, Cyber-physical systems, Kernel, Lyapunov methods, Non linear control, Optimization, Real time optimization, Safety, Set invariance, Uncertainty, active set invariance, control barrier function based methodology, control system synthesis, cyber-physical systems, model uncertainty, nonlinear control systems, nonlinear disturbances, optimisation, optimization problem, pendulums, realizable framework, realizable safety critical control, safety, safety critical controlled invariance, two-wheeled inverted pendulum, uncertain systems, wheels},
pages = {98--106},
}Robust Optimal ECO-driving Control with Uncertain Traffic Signal Timing. Sun, C., Shen, X., & Moura, S. In 2018 Annual American Control Conference (ACC), pages 5548–5553, June, 2018. 24 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2022-07-07] ISSN: 2378-5861
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
This paper proposes a robust optimal eco-driving control strategy considering multiple signalized intersections with uncertain traffic signal timing. A spatial vehicle velocity profile optimization formulation is developed to minimize the global fuel consumption, with driving time as one state variable. We introduce the concept of `effective red-light duration' (ERD), formulated as a random variable, to describe the feasible passing time through signalized intersections. A chance constraint is appended to the optimal control problem to incorporate robustness with respect to uncertain signal timing. The optimal eco-driving control problem is solved via dynamic programming (DP). Simulation results demonstrate that the optimal eco-driving can save fuel consumption by 50-57 % while maintaining arrival time at the same level, compared with a modified intelligent driver model as the benchmark. The robust formulation significantly reduces traffic intersection violations, in the face of uncertain signal timing, with small sacrifice on fuel economy compared to a non-robust approach.
@inproceedings{sun_robust_2018,
title = {Robust {Optimal} {ECO}-driving {Control} with {Uncertain} {Traffic} {Signal} {Timing}},
doi = {10.23919/acc.2018.8430781},
abstract = {This paper proposes a robust optimal eco-driving control strategy considering multiple signalized intersections with uncertain traffic signal timing. A spatial vehicle velocity profile optimization formulation is developed to minimize the global fuel consumption, with driving time as one state variable. We introduce the concept of `effective red-light duration' (ERD), formulated as a random variable, to describe the feasible passing time through signalized intersections. A chance constraint is appended to the optimal control problem to incorporate robustness with respect to uncertain signal timing. The optimal eco-driving control problem is solved via dynamic programming (DP). Simulation results demonstrate that the optimal eco-driving can save fuel consumption by 50-57 \% while maintaining arrival time at the same level, compared with a modified intelligent driver model as the benchmark. The robust formulation significantly reduces traffic intersection violations, in the face of uncertain signal timing, with small sacrifice on fuel economy compared to a non-robust approach.},
booktitle = {2018 {Annual} {American} {Control} {Conference} ({ACC})},
author = {Sun, Chao and Shen, Xinwei and Moura, Scott},
month = jun,
year = {2018},
note = {24 citations (Semantic Scholar/DOI) [2022-07-07]
ISSN: 2378-5861},
keywords = {/unread, Clocks, Fuels, Optimization, Robustness, Timing, Uncertainty, Vehicles},
pages = {5548--5553},
}Robustness enhancement for chiller sequencing control under uncertainty. Liao, Y., Huang, G., Ding, Y., Wu, H., & Feng, Z. Applied Thermal Engineering, 141:811–818, August, 2018.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Chiller sequencing control is an important technique for achieving energy efficiency of multi-chiller plants while not sacrificing indoor thermal comfort. Available typical controls, such as bypass flow-based control and direct power-based (P-based) control, uses individual indicator to switch chillers on or off. However, these controls suffer from various uncertainties in operation and may lead to insufficient cooling supply, unstable operation, or energy waste. A simple but practical way to enhance the robustness of chiller sequencing control is to explore and make use of the complementarity of different load indicators. Hence, this paper presents three methods to enhance the robustness of chiller sequencing control by hybridizing the use of different load indicators. Numerical studies are used to analyze the robustness of the enhanced controls under different levels of uncertainty.
@article{liao_robustness_2018,
title = {Robustness enhancement for chiller sequencing control under uncertainty},
volume = {141},
issn = {1359-4311},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1359431118316600},
doi = {10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2018.06.031},
abstract = {Chiller sequencing control is an important technique for achieving energy efficiency of multi-chiller plants while not sacrificing indoor thermal comfort. Available typical controls, such as bypass flow-based control and direct power-based (P-based) control, uses individual indicator to switch chillers on or off. However, these controls suffer from various uncertainties in operation and may lead to insufficient cooling supply, unstable operation, or energy waste. A simple but practical way to enhance the robustness of chiller sequencing control is to explore and make use of the complementarity of different load indicators. Hence, this paper presents three methods to enhance the robustness of chiller sequencing control by hybridizing the use of different load indicators. Numerical studies are used to analyze the robustness of the enhanced controls under different levels of uncertainty.},
urldate = {2019-01-06},
journal = {Applied Thermal Engineering},
author = {Liao, Yundan and Huang, Gongsheng and Ding, Yunfei and Wu, Huijun and Feng, Zhuangbo},
month = aug,
year = {2018},
keywords = {Chiller plant, Chiller sequencing control, Energy efficiency, Robustness, Uncertainty},
pages = {811--818},
}2017 (3)
An Impressionistic Cartographic Solution for Base Map Land Cover with Coarse Pixel Data. Raposo, P., Brewer, C., A., & Sparks, K. Cartographic Perspectives; No 83 (2016), 2017.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex Several everyday cartography applications do not require sharply precise base maps, and in fact benefit from their generalization or deliberate obscuration, such as tourist or transit maps. Additionally, raster data fine enough for a given map scale are not always available. We present a method of creating an impressionistic land cover base map for topographic mapping in which the above two conditions are true, using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of the US Geological Survey (USGS). The method is based on reclassification, upsampling, constrained randomization at class boundary edges, and deliberate use of colors with very similar lightness values. The method spans both scientific geospatial data treatment and artistic cartographic design, and both generalizes and enhances the data. The processing, automated in ArcGIS\texttrademark, is detailed, and examples of the product are provided. ~
@article{
title = {An Impressionistic Cartographic Solution for Base Map Land Cover with Coarse Pixel Data},
type = {article},
year = {2017},
keywords = {enhancement,generalization,land cover,raster upsampling,topographic mapping,uncertainty},
websites = {http://cartographicperspectives.org/index.php/journal/article/view/1351/1486},
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abstract = {Several everyday cartography applications do not require sharply precise base maps, and in fact benefit from their generalization or deliberate obscuration, such as tourist or transit maps. Additionally, raster data fine enough for a given map scale are not always available. We present a method of creating an impressionistic land cover base map for topographic mapping in which the above two conditions are true, using the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) of the US Geological Survey (USGS). The method is based on reclassification, upsampling, constrained randomization at class boundary edges, and deliberate use of colors with very similar lightness values. The method spans both scientific geospatial data treatment and artistic cartographic design, and both generalizes and enhances the data. The processing, automated in ArcGIS\texttrademark, is detailed, and examples of the product are provided. ~},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Raposo, Paulo and Brewer, Cynthia A and Sparks, Kevin},
journal = {Cartographic Perspectives; No 83 (2016)}
}Quantitative Performance Evaluation of Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid AADL Designs Using Statistical Model Checking. Bao, Y., Chen, M., Zhu, Q., Wei, T., Mallet, F., & Zhou, T. IEEE Transactions on Computer-Aided Design of Integrated Circuits and Systems, 36(12):1989–2002, December, 2017. Conference Name: IEEE Transactions on Computer-Aided Design of Integrated Circuits and Systems
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
The hybrid architecture analysis and design language (AADL) has been proposed to model the interactions between embedded control systems and continuous physical environment. However, the worst-case performance analysis of hybrid AADL designs often leads to overly pessimistic estimations, and is not suitable for accurate reasoning about overall system performance, in particular when the system closely interacts with an uncertain external environment. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a statistical model checking-based framework that can perform quantitative evaluation of uncertainty-aware hybrid AADL designs against various performance queries. Our approach extends hybrid AADL to support the modeling of environment uncertainties. Furthermore, we propose a set of transformation rules that can automatically translate AADL designs together with designers' requirements into networks of priced timed automata and performance queries, respectively. Comprehensive experimental results on the movement authority scenario of Chinese train control system level 3 demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.
@article{bao_quantitative_2017,
title = {Quantitative {Performance} {Evaluation} of {Uncertainty}-{Aware} {Hybrid} {AADL} {Designs} {Using} {Statistical} {Model} {Checking}},
volume = {36},
issn = {1937-4151},
doi = {10.1109/TCAD.2017.2681076},
abstract = {The hybrid architecture analysis and design language (AADL) has been proposed to model the interactions between embedded control systems and continuous physical environment. However, the worst-case performance analysis of hybrid AADL designs often leads to overly pessimistic estimations, and is not suitable for accurate reasoning about overall system performance, in particular when the system closely interacts with an uncertain external environment. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a statistical model checking-based framework that can perform quantitative evaluation of uncertainty-aware hybrid AADL designs against various performance queries. Our approach extends hybrid AADL to support the modeling of environment uncertainties. Furthermore, we propose a set of transformation rules that can automatically translate AADL designs together with designers' requirements into networks of priced timed automata and performance queries, respectively. Comprehensive experimental results on the movement authority scenario of Chinese train control system level 3 demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.},
number = {12},
journal = {IEEE Transactions on Computer-Aided Design of Integrated Circuits and Systems},
author = {Bao, Yongxiang and Chen, Mingsong and Zhu, Qi and Wei, Tongquan and Mallet, Frederic and Zhou, Tingliang},
month = dec,
year = {2017},
note = {Conference Name: IEEE Transactions on Computer-Aided Design of Integrated Circuits and Systems},
keywords = {Analytical models, Computational modeling, Computer architecture, Hybrid architecture analysis and design language (AADL), Model checking, Ports (Computers), Statistical analysis, Uncertainty, quantitative performance evaluation, statistical model checking (SMC), uncertainty},
pages = {1989--2002},
}Sensitivity analysis of the physical dynamics of the Fly River plume in Torres Strait. Li, Y., Martins, F., & Wolanski, E. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 194:84 - 91, 2017.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex The intrusion in the Torres Strait of the Fly River plume polluted by mine tailings is an international water issue. To investigate the physical mechanisms involved in the intrusion process, numerical simulations were conducted to assess the relative influence of the bathymetry and the external forcing, namely the tides, the mean sea level slope across the strait, river runoff and wind forcing. The wind data from Horn Island, the only long-term wind station in the Torres Strait, is shown to be unreliable due to orographic effects. Mean sea level data from altimetry compare well with those from tide gauges in these shallow, reef-studded waters. The wind has a dominant effect on the mean sea level at seasonal and inter-annual periods. The resulting mean sea level difference across the strait fluctuated seasonally and strongly influenced the intrusion of the Fly River plume in the Torres Strait. The 3D finite-volume MOHID model reproduced the observation that the river plume starts by being stratified in the Gulf of Papua where it originates, and it mixes vertically when it enters the Torres Strait. The MOHID and the SLIM models were applied with different resolution to the Torres Strait and responded similarly to the external forcings. The predicted and observed Fly River plume intrusion in the eastern Torres Strait agreed well with each other, including the formation of patches due to flow reversals. However, the two models predicted a widely different Fly River plume in its far field in the western Torres Strait, the differences were attributed to the different bathymetry in the Australian and British-US bathymetry data for these poorly charted waters, which demonstrated the importance of the details of the bathymetry in controlling the extent of plume intrusion.
@article{
title = {Sensitivity analysis of the physical dynamics of the Fly River plume in Torres Strait},
type = {article},
year = {2017},
identifiers = {[object Object]},
keywords = {Altimetry,Modelling,River plume,Uncertainty,Wind},
pages = {84 - 91},
volume = {194},
websites = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272771416307296},
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folder_uuids = {936b7a49-1c3a-454c-91fb-8138fa4fd8f7},
private_publication = {false},
abstract = {The intrusion in the Torres Strait of the Fly River plume polluted by mine tailings is an international water issue. To investigate the physical mechanisms involved in the intrusion process, numerical simulations were conducted to assess the relative influence of the bathymetry and the external forcing, namely the tides, the mean sea level slope across the strait, river runoff and wind forcing. The wind data from Horn Island, the only long-term wind station in the Torres Strait, is shown to be unreliable due to orographic effects. Mean sea level data from altimetry compare well with those from tide gauges in these shallow, reef-studded waters. The wind has a dominant effect on the mean sea level at seasonal and inter-annual periods. The resulting mean sea level difference across the strait fluctuated seasonally and strongly influenced the intrusion of the Fly River plume in the Torres Strait. The 3D finite-volume MOHID model reproduced the observation that the river plume starts by being stratified in the Gulf of Papua where it originates, and it mixes vertically when it enters the Torres Strait. The MOHID and the SLIM models were applied with different resolution to the Torres Strait and responded similarly to the external forcings. The predicted and observed Fly River plume intrusion in the eastern Torres Strait agreed well with each other, including the formation of patches due to flow reversals. However, the two models predicted a widely different Fly River plume in its far field in the western Torres Strait, the differences were attributed to the different bathymetry in the Australian and British-US bathymetry data for these poorly charted waters, which demonstrated the importance of the details of the bathymetry in controlling the extent of plume intrusion.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Li, Yanfang and Martins, Flavio and Wolanski, Eric},
journal = {Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science}
}2016 (4)
The Ethics of Ambiguity: Rethinking the Role and Importance of Uncertainty in Medical Education and Practice. Domen, R. E. Academic Pathology, 3:237428951665471, August, 2016.
Paper doi abstract bibtex 1 download
Paper doi abstract bibtex 1 download Understanding and embracing uncertainty are critical for effective teacher–learner relationships as well as for shared decisionmaking in the physician–patient relationship. However, ambiguity has not been given serious consideration in either the undergraduate or graduate medical curricula or in the role it plays in patient-centered care. In this article, the author examines the ethics of ambiguity and argues for a pedagogy that includes education in the importance of, and tolerance of, ambiguity that is inherent in medical education and practice. Common threads running through the ethics of ambiguity are the virtue of respect, and the development of a culture of respect is required for the successful understanding and implementation of a pedagogy of ambiguity.
@article{domen_ethics_2016,
title = {The {Ethics} of {Ambiguity}: {Rethinking} the {Role} and {Importance} of {Uncertainty} in {Medical} {Education} and {Practice}},
volume = {3},
issn = {2374-2895, 2374-2895},
shorttitle = {The {Ethics} of {Ambiguity}},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2374289516654712},
doi = {10.1177/2374289516654712},
abstract = {Understanding and embracing uncertainty are critical for effective teacher–learner relationships as well as for shared decisionmaking in the physician–patient relationship. However, ambiguity has not been given serious consideration in either the undergraduate or graduate medical curricula or in the role it plays in patient-centered care. In this article, the author examines the ethics of ambiguity and argues for a pedagogy that includes education in the importance of, and tolerance of, ambiguity that is inherent in medical education and practice. Common threads running through the ethics of ambiguity are the virtue of respect, and the development of a culture of respect is required for the successful understanding and implementation of a pedagogy of ambiguity.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2020-03-12},
journal = {Academic Pathology},
author = {Domen, Ronald E.},
month = aug,
year = {2016},
keywords = {ambiguity, ethics, medical education, patient-centered care,, professionalism, respect, uncertainty},
pages = {237428951665471},
}Adaptable Precomputation for Random Walker Image Segmentation and Registration. Andrews, S. & Hamarneh, G. Technical Report arxiv:1607.04174, 7, 2016.
bibtex
bibtex
@TECHREPORT{arxiv:1607.04174,
OPTADDRESS = {},
AUTHOR = {Shawn Andrews and Ghassan Hamarneh},
INSTITUTION = {},
MONTH = {7},
OPTNOTE = {},
NUMBER = {arxiv:1607.04174},
PAGES = {1-9},
TITLE = {Adaptable Precomputation for Random Walker Image
Segmentation and Registration},
OPTTYPE = {},
YEAR = {2016},
OPTABSTRACT = {},
OPTDOI = {},
OPTISBN = {},
OPTISSN = {},
KEYWORDS = {Segmentation, Registration and Matching, Optimization,
Uncertainty},
OPTURL = {},
OPTURL-PUBLISHER = {},
PDF = {http://www.cs.sfu.ca/~hamarneh/ecopy/arxiv_1607_04174.pdf}
}On the Evaluation of Failure Probabilities for Nanoelectronic Applications. Römer, U. & Schöps, S. March 2016.
bibtex
bibtex
@Poster{ Romer_2016ac,
author = {Römer, Ulrich and Schöps, Sebastian},
booktitle = {87th Annual Meeting of the International Association of Applied Mathematics and Mechanics ({GAMM} 2016)},
citable = {0},
day = {7},
file = {Romer_2016ac.pdf},
group = {simurom,nanocops,gsce,schoeps,roemer},
internal = {0},
keywords = {uncertainty,gpc,adjoint,field-circuit,rare-events},
langid = {english},
month = mar,
title = {On the Evaluation of Failure Probabilities for Nanoelectronic Applications},
year = {2016}
}Rethinking risk assessment for emerging technology first-in-human trials. Genske, A. & Engel-Glatter, S. Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy, 19(1):125–139, 2016. 1
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Recent progress in synthetic biology (SynBio) has enabled the development of novel therapeutic opportunities for the treatment of human disease. In the near future, first-in-human trials (FIH) will be indicated. FIH trials mark a key milestone in the translation of medical SynBio applications into clinical practice. Fostered by uncertainty of possible adverse events for trial participants, a variety of ethical concerns emerge with regards to SynBio FIH trials, including ‘risk’ minimization. These concerns are associated with any FIH trial, however, due to the novelty of the approach, they become more pronounced for medical applications of emerging technologies (emTech) like SynBio. To minimize potential harm for trial participants, scholars, guidelines, regulations and policy makers alike suggest using ‘risk assessment’ as evaluation tool for such trials. Conversely, in the context of emTech FIH trials, we believe it to be at least questionable to contextualize uncertainty of potential adverse events as ‘risk’ and apply traditional risk assessment methods. Hence, this issue needs to be discussed to enable alterations of the evaluation process before the translational phase of SynBio applications begins. In this paper, we will take the opportunity to start the debate and highlight how a misunderstanding of the concept of risk, and the possibilities and limitations of risk assessment, respectively, might impair decision-making by the relevant regulatory authorities and research ethics committees, and discuss possible solutions to tackle the issue. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
@article{genske_rethinking_2016,
title = {Rethinking risk assessment for emerging technology first-in-human trials},
volume = {19},
issn = {13867423},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84939218906&doi=10.1007%2fs11019-015-9660-7&partnerID=40&md5=0c69b756c4bfbb6e11e76d2fd079ed7f},
doi = {10.1007/s11019-015-9660-7},
abstract = {Recent progress in synthetic biology (SynBio) has enabled the development of novel therapeutic opportunities for the treatment of human disease. In the near future, first-in-human trials (FIH) will be indicated. FIH trials mark a key milestone in the translation of medical SynBio applications into clinical practice. Fostered by uncertainty of possible adverse events for trial participants, a variety of ethical concerns emerge with regards to SynBio FIH trials, including ‘risk’ minimization. These concerns are associated with any FIH trial, however, due to the novelty of the approach, they become more pronounced for medical applications of emerging technologies (emTech) like SynBio. To minimize potential harm for trial participants, scholars, guidelines, regulations and policy makers alike suggest using ‘risk assessment’ as evaluation tool for such trials. Conversely, in the context of emTech FIH trials, we believe it to be at least questionable to contextualize uncertainty of potential adverse events as ‘risk’ and apply traditional risk assessment methods. Hence, this issue needs to be discussed to enable alterations of the evaluation process before the translational phase of SynBio applications begins. In this paper, we will take the opportunity to start the debate and highlight how a misunderstanding of the concept of risk, and the possibilities and limitations of risk assessment, respectively, might impair decision-making by the relevant regulatory authorities and research ethics committees, and discuss possible solutions to tackle the issue. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.},
language = {eng},
number = {1},
journal = {Medicine, Health Care and Philosophy},
author = {Genske, Anna and Engel-Glatter, Sabrina},
year = {2016},
note = {1},
keywords = {10 Ignorance, uncertainty and risk, Clinical Trials as Topic, Humans, Ignorance, incertitude et risque, PRINTED (Fonds papier), Uncertainty, clinical trial (topic), ethics, human, organization and management, risk assessment, synthetic biology},
pages = {125--139},
}2015 (2)
Probabilistic event calculus for event recognition. Skarlatidis, A., Paliouras, G., Artikis, A., & Vouros, G. A. ACM Trans. Comput. Logic, 16(2):11:1--11:37, ACM, New York, NY, USA, feb, 2015.
Paper doi bibtex
Paper doi bibtex @Article{Skarlatidis_2015_17615,
author = {Skarlatidis, Anastasios and Paliouras, Georgios and Artikis, Alexander and Vouros, George A.},
address = {New York, NY, USA},
journal = {ACM Trans. Comput. Logic},
month = {feb},
number = {2},
pages = {11:1--11:37},
publisher = {ACM},
title = {Probabilistic event calculus for event recognition},
volume = {16},
year = {2015},
issn = {1529-3785},
keywords = {Events, machine learning, probabilistic inference, uncertainty},
url = {http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/2699916},
doi = {10.1145/2699916},
title_with_no_special_chars = {Probabilistic Event Calculus for Event Recognition}
}Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment by embedding evolutionary resilience, participatory modelling and adaptive management. Bond, A., Morrison-Saunders, A., Gunn, J. A. E., Pope, J., & Retief, F. Journal of Environmental Management, 151:97--104, March, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex In the context of continuing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment (IA) prediction, the case is made that existing IA processes are based on false ‘normal’ assumptions that science can solve problems and transfer knowledge into policy. Instead, a ‘post-normal science’ approach is needed that acknowledges the limits of current levels of scientific understanding. We argue that this can be achieved through embedding evolutionary resilience into IA; using participatory workshops; and emphasising adaptive management. The goal is an IA process capable of informing policy choices in the face of uncertain influences acting on socio-ecological systems. We propose a specific set of process steps to operationalise this post-normal science approach which draws on work undertaken by the Resilience Alliance. This process differs significantly from current models of IA, as it has a far greater focus on avoidance of, or adaptation to (through incorporating adaptive management subsequent to decisions), unwanted future scenarios rather than a focus on the identification of the implications of a single preferred vision. Implementing such a process would represent a culture change in IA practice as a lack of knowledge is assumed and explicit, and forms the basis of future planning activity, rather than being ignored.
@article{bond_managing_2015,
title = {Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment by embedding evolutionary resilience, participatory modelling and adaptive management},
volume = {151},
issn = {0301-4797},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479714006094},
doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.12.030},
abstract = {In the context of continuing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in impact assessment (IA) prediction, the case is made that existing IA processes are based on false ‘normal’ assumptions that science can solve problems and transfer knowledge into policy. Instead, a ‘post-normal science’ approach is needed that acknowledges the limits of current levels of scientific understanding. We argue that this can be achieved through embedding evolutionary resilience into IA; using participatory workshops; and emphasising adaptive management. The goal is an IA process capable of informing policy choices in the face of uncertain influences acting on socio-ecological systems. We propose a specific set of process steps to operationalise this post-normal science approach which draws on work undertaken by the Resilience Alliance. This process differs significantly from current models of IA, as it has a far greater focus on avoidance of, or adaptation to (through incorporating adaptive management subsequent to decisions), unwanted future scenarios rather than a focus on the identification of the implications of a single preferred vision. Implementing such a process would represent a culture change in IA practice as a lack of knowledge is assumed and explicit, and forms the basis of future planning activity, rather than being ignored.},
urldate = {2015-01-02},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Management},
author = {Bond, Alan and Morrison-Saunders, Angus and Gunn, Jill A. E. and Pope, Jenny and Retief, Francois},
month = mar,
year = {2015},
keywords = {Adaptive management, Ambiguity, Evolutionary resilience, Ignorance, Post-normal science, uncertainty},
pages = {97--104},
file = {ScienceDirect Full Text PDF:files/50467/Bond et al. - 2015 - Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in i.pdf:application/pdf;ScienceDirect Full Text PDF:files/50470/Bond et al. - 2015 - Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in i.pdf:application/pdf;ScienceDirect Snapshot:files/50466/Bond et al. - 2015 - Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in i.html:text/html;ScienceDirect Snapshot:files/50469/Bond et al. - 2015 - Managing uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance in i.html:text/html}
}2014 (7)
Isogeometric Simulation of Lorentz Detuning in Superconducting Linear Accelerator Cavities. Corno, J. & de Falco, C. September 2014.
Paper bibtex
Paper bibtex @Abstract{ Corno_2014aj,
address = {Rietzlern, Austria},
author = {Corno, Jacopo and de Falco, Carlo},
booktitle = {Workshop on Advances in Electromagnetic Research -- {KWT} 2014},
citable = {0},
day = {15},
file = {Corno_2014aj.pdf},
group = {kwt,schoeps,corno,gsce},
internal = {1},
keywords = {isogeometric,uncertainty,cavities,tesla},
langid = {english},
month = sep,
publisher = {Maxwell in Motion},
title = {Isogeometric Simulation of {Lorentz} Detuning in Superconducting Linear Accelerator Cavities},
url = {http://maxwell-in-motion.org},
year = {2014}
}Developing GIOVANNI-based online prototypes to intercompare TRMM-related global gridded-precipitation products. Liu, Z., Ostrenga, D., Teng, W., Kempler, S., & Milich, L. Computers & Geosciences, 66:168–181, May, 2014.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex New online prototypes have been developed to extend and enhance the previous effort by facilitating investigation of product characteristics and intercomparison of precipitation products in different algorithms as well as in different versions at different spatial scales ranging from local to global without downloading data and software. Several popular Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products and the TRMM Composite Climatology are included. In addition, users can download customized data in several popular formats for further analysis. Examples show product quality problems and differences in several monthly precipitation products. It is seen that differences in daily and monthly precipitation products are distributed unevenly in space and it is necessary to have tools such as those presented here for customized and detailed investigations. A simple time series and two area maps allow the discovery of abnormal values of 3A25 in one of the months. An example shows a V-shaped valley issue in the Version 6 3B43 time series and another example shows a sudden drop in 3A25 monthly rain rate, all of which provide important information when the products are used for long-term trend studies. Future plans include adding more products and statistical functionality in the prototypes.
@article{liu_developing_2014,
title = {Developing {GIOVANNI}-based online prototypes to intercompare {TRMM}-related global gridded-precipitation products},
volume = {66},
issn = {0098-3004},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S009830041300318X},
doi = {10.1016/j.cageo.2013.12.012},
abstract = {New online prototypes have been developed to extend and enhance the previous effort by facilitating investigation of product characteristics and intercomparison of precipitation products in different algorithms as well as in different versions at different spatial scales ranging from local to global without downloading data and software. Several popular Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products and the TRMM Composite Climatology are included. In addition, users can download customized data in several popular formats for further analysis. Examples show product quality problems and differences in several monthly precipitation products. It is seen that differences in daily and monthly precipitation products are distributed unevenly in space and it is necessary to have tools such as those presented here for customized and detailed investigations. A simple time series and two area maps allow the discovery of abnormal values of 3A25 in one of the months. An example shows a V-shaped valley issue in the Version 6 3B43 time series and another example shows a sudden drop in 3A25 monthly rain rate, all of which provide important information when the products are used for long-term trend studies. Future plans include adding more products and statistical functionality in the prototypes.},
urldate = {2019-01-23},
journal = {Computers \& Geosciences},
author = {Liu, Zhong and Ostrenga, Dana and Teng, William and Kempler, Steven and Milich, Lenard},
month = may,
year = {2014},
keywords = {Intercomparison, Online tools, Precipitation, Satellite remote sensing, TRMM, Uncertainty},
pages = {168--181},
file = {ScienceDirect Full Text PDF:/Volumes/mini-disk1/Google Drive/_lib/zotero/storage/4ITHXAA5/Liu et al. - 2014 - Developing GIOVANNI-based online prototypes to int.pdf:application/pdf;ScienceDirect Snapshot:/Volumes/mini-disk1/Google Drive/_lib/zotero/storage/NPCK3CEV/S009830041300318X.html:text/html}
}Trick of the Light. Nature Nature, 506(7486):6, February, 2014.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
The Amazon doesn't absorb extra carbon in the dry season after all. It can become a carbon source.
@article{natureTrickLight2014,
title = {Trick of the Light},
author = {{Nature}},
year = {2014},
month = feb,
volume = {506},
pages = {6},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/506006b},
abstract = {The Amazon doesn't absorb extra carbon in the dry season after all. It can become a carbon source.},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12972834,amazonia,carbon-cycle,forest-resources,modelling,modelling-uncertainty,organic-carbon,precipitation,remote-sensing,solar-radiation,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12972834},
number = {7486}
}. Schieche, B. & Lang, J. Volume 97, Garcke, J. & Pflüger, D., editors. Adjoint Error Estimation for Stochastic Collocation Methods Bettina Schieche and Jens Lang, pages 271–294. Springer, München, 2014.
bibtex
bibtex
@InBook{ Schieche_2014ab,
address = {München},
author = {Schieche, Bettina and Lang, Jens},
booktitle = {Sparse Grids and Applications},
editor = {Garcke, J. and Pflüger, D.},
file = {Schieche_2014ab.pdf},
keywords = {uncertainty,uq,quadrature,sparse,grid},
langid = {english},
pages = {271--294},
publisher = {Springer},
series = {Lecture Notes on Computational Science and Engineering},
title = {Adjoint Error Estimation for Stochastic Collocation Methods Bettina Schieche and Jens Lang},
volume = {97},
year = {2014}
}Modelling soil erosion at European scale: towards harmonization and reproducibility. Bosco, C., de Rigo, D., Dewitte, O., Poesen, J., & Panagos, P. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 2(4):2639--2680, April, 2014.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Soil erosion by water is one of the most widespread forms of soil degradation. The loss of soil as a result of erosion can lead to decline in organic matter and nutrient contents, breakdown of soil structure and reduction of the water holding capacity. Measuring soil loss across the whole landscape is impractical and thus research is needed to improve methods of estimating soil erosion with computational modelling, upon which integrated assessment and mitigation strategies may be based. Despite the efforts, the prediction value of existing models is still limited, especially at regional and continental scale. A new approach for modelling soil erosion at large spatial scale is here proposed. It is based on the joint use of low data demanding models and innovative techniques for better estimating model inputs. The proposed modelling architecture has at its basis the semantic array programming paradigm and a strong effort towards computational reproducibility. An extended version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) has been implemented merging different empirical rainfall-erosivity equations within a climatic ensemble model and adding a new factor for a better consideration of soil stoniness within the model. Pan-European soil erosion rates by water have been estimated through the use of publicly available datasets and locally reliable empirical relationships. The accuracy of the results is corroborated by a visual plausibility check (63% of a random sample of grid cells are accurate, 83% at least moderately accurate, bootstrap p ≤ 0.05). A comparison with country level statistics of pre-existing European maps of soil erosion by water is also provided.
@article{ citeulike:13133263,
abstract = {Soil erosion by water is one of the most widespread forms of soil degradation. The loss of soil as a result of erosion can lead to decline in organic matter and nutrient contents, breakdown of soil structure and reduction of the water holding capacity. Measuring soil loss across the whole landscape is impractical and thus research is needed to improve methods of estimating soil erosion with computational modelling, upon which integrated assessment and mitigation strategies may be based. Despite the efforts, the prediction value of existing models is still limited, especially at regional and continental scale. A new approach for modelling soil erosion at large spatial scale is here proposed. It is based on the joint use of low data demanding models and innovative techniques for better estimating model inputs. The proposed modelling architecture has at its basis the semantic array programming paradigm and a strong effort towards computational reproducibility. An extended version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation ({RUSLE}) has been implemented merging different empirical rainfall-erosivity equations within a climatic ensemble model and adding a new factor for a better consideration of soil stoniness within the model. {Pan-European} soil erosion rates by water have been estimated through the use of publicly available datasets and locally reliable empirical relationships. The accuracy of the results is corroborated by a visual plausibility check (63% of a random sample of grid cells are accurate, 83% at least moderately accurate, bootstrap p ≤ 0.05). A comparison with country level statistics of pre-existing European maps of soil erosion by water is also provided.},
author = {Bosco, Claudio and de Rigo, Daniele and Dewitte, Olivier and Poesen, Jean and Panagos, Panos},
citeulike-article-id = {13133263},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2639-2014},
citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=15027909135920483528},
citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2639-2014},
day = {11},
doi = {10.5194/nhessd-2-2639-2014},
issn = {2195-9269},
journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions},
keywords = {bias-toward-primacy-of-theory-over-reality, computational-science, continental-scale, data-integration, empirical-equation, ensemble, environmental-modelling, erosivity, europe, geospatial-semantic-array-programming, gis, integrated-modelling, knowledge-integration, mastrave-modelling-library, modelling, relative-distance-similarity, reproducibility, reproducible-research, rusle, semantic-array-programming, soil-erosion, soil-resources, stoniness, uncertainty, visual-assessment},
month = {April},
number = {4},
pages = {2639--2680},
posted-at = {2014-04-11 08:54:44},
priority = {2},
title = {Modelling soil erosion at {E}uropean scale: towards harmonization and reproducibility},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-2639-2014},
volume = {2},
year = {2014}
}Stochastic chiller sequencing control. Li, Z., Huang, G., & Sun, Y. Energy and Buildings, 84:203–213, December, 2014.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Chiller sequencing control is essentially to determine proper thresholds for switching on and off chillers so as to guarantee that the operating chillers can provide sufficient cooling capacity while not waste energy for a given load condition. Total cooling load-based chiller sequencing control determines the thresholds according to building instantaneous cooling load and chiller maximum cooling capacity, which is in principle the best approach for chiller sequence control. However, one challenge for practical applications is that the measure of the cooling load and the estimate of the chiller maximum cooling capacity are associated with uncertainties. To deal with the uncertainties, a stochastic chiller sequencing control is proposed in this paper, which shows that the uncertainties associated with the cooling load measurement can be well described using Normal distribution and the uncertainties associated with the chiller maximum capacity estimation can be described using Uniform distribution. The switch-on/off thresholds are therefore determined in the framework of statistics. An algorithm to realize the stochastic control is developed. Case studies compare the stochastic control with the conventional deterministic method, and the results show that the proposed method can improve the robustness and flexibility of chiller sequencing operation.
@article{li_stochastic_2014,
title = {Stochastic chiller sequencing control},
volume = {84},
issn = {0378-7788},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778814006215},
doi = {10.1016/j.enbuild.2014.07.072},
abstract = {Chiller sequencing control is essentially to determine proper thresholds for switching on and off chillers so as to guarantee that the operating chillers can provide sufficient cooling capacity while not waste energy for a given load condition. Total cooling load-based chiller sequencing control determines the thresholds according to building instantaneous cooling load and chiller maximum cooling capacity, which is in principle the best approach for chiller sequence control. However, one challenge for practical applications is that the measure of the cooling load and the estimate of the chiller maximum cooling capacity are associated with uncertainties. To deal with the uncertainties, a stochastic chiller sequencing control is proposed in this paper, which shows that the uncertainties associated with the cooling load measurement can be well described using Normal distribution and the uncertainties associated with the chiller maximum capacity estimation can be described using Uniform distribution. The switch-on/off thresholds are therefore determined in the framework of statistics. An algorithm to realize the stochastic control is developed. Case studies compare the stochastic control with the conventional deterministic method, and the results show that the proposed method can improve the robustness and flexibility of chiller sequencing operation.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2020-03-23},
journal = {Energy and Buildings},
author = {Li, Zhengwei and Huang, Gongsheng and Sun, Yongjun},
month = dec,
year = {2014},
keywords = {Chiller sequencing, Cooling load measurement, Multiple-chiller plant, Stochastic control, Uncertainty},
pages = {203--213},
}Subgroup analyses in cost-effectiveness analyses to support health technology assessments. Fletcher, C., Chuang-Stein, C., Paget, M., Reid, C., & Hawkins, N. Pharmaceutical statistics, 13(4):265–274, 2014.
bibtex
bibtex
@article{fletcher_subgroup_2014-1,
title = {Subgroup analyses in cost-effectiveness analyses to support health technology assessments},
volume = {13},
number = {4},
journal = {Pharmaceutical statistics},
author = {Fletcher, Christine and Chuang-Stein, Christy and Paget, Marie-Ange and Reid, Carol and Hawkins, Neil},
year = {2014},
keywords = {Biomedical, Cost-Benefit Analysis, cost-effectiveness, health technology assessment, Humans, subgroups, Technology Assessment, uncertainty, Uncertainty},
pages = {265--274},
file = {Snapshot:/Users/neil.hawkins/Zotero/storage/RZMEK599/pst.html:text/html},
}2013 (7)
Free and Open Source Software Underpinning the European Forest Data Centre. Rodriguez-Aseretto, D., Di Leo, M., de Rigo , D., Corti, P., McInerney, D., Camia, A., & San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 15:12101+, 2013.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Worldwide, governments are growingly focusing on free and open source software (FOSS) as a move toward transparency and the freedom to run, copy, study, change and improve the software. The European Commission (EC) is also supporting the development of FOSS [...]. In addition to the financial savings, FOSS contributes to scientific knowledge freedom in computational science (CS) and is increasingly rewarded in the science-policy interface within the emerging paradigm of open science. Since complex computational science applications may be affected by software uncertainty, FOSS may help to mitigate part of the impact of software errors by CS community- driven open review, correction and evolution of scientific code. The continental scale of EC science-based policy support implies wide networks of scientific collaboration. Thematic information systems also may benefit from this approach within reproducible integrated modelling. This is supported by the EC strategy on FOSS: "for the development of new information systems, where deployment is foreseen by parties outside of the EC infrastructure, FOSS will be the preferred choice and in any case used whenever possible". The aim of this contribution is to highlight how a continental scale information system may exploit and integrate FOSS technologies within the transdisciplinary research underpinning such a complex system. A European example is discussed where FOSS innervates both the structure of the information system itself and the inherent transdisciplinary research for modelling the data and information which constitute the system content. [...]
@article{rodriguez-aserettoFreeOpenSource2013,
title = {Free and {{Open Source Software}} Underpinning the {{European Forest Data Centre}}},
author = {{Rodriguez-Aseretto}, Dario and Di Leo, Margherita and {de Rigo}, Daniele and Corti, Paolo and McInerney, Daniel and Camia, Andrea and {San-Miguel-Ayanz}, Jes{\'u}s},
year = {2013},
volume = {15},
pages = {12101+},
issn = {1607-7962},
doi = {10.6084/m9.figshare.155700},
abstract = {Worldwide, governments are growingly focusing on free and open source software (FOSS) as a move toward transparency and the freedom to run, copy, study, change and improve the software. The European Commission (EC) is also supporting the development of FOSS [...]. In addition to the financial savings, FOSS contributes to scientific knowledge freedom in computational science (CS) and is increasingly rewarded in the science-policy interface within the emerging paradigm of open science. Since complex computational science applications may be affected by software uncertainty, FOSS may help to mitigate part of the impact of software errors by CS community- driven open review, correction and evolution of scientific code. The continental scale of EC science-based policy support implies wide networks of scientific collaboration. Thematic information systems also may benefit from this approach within reproducible integrated modelling. This is supported by the EC strategy on FOSS: "for the development of new information systems, where deployment is foreseen by parties outside of the EC infrastructure, FOSS will be the preferred choice and in any case used whenever possible". The aim of this contribution is to highlight how a continental scale information system may exploit and integrate FOSS technologies within the transdisciplinary research underpinning such a complex system. A European example is discussed where FOSS innervates both the structure of the information system itself and the inherent transdisciplinary research for modelling the data and information which constitute the system content. [...]},
journal = {Geophysical Research Abstracts},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11988844,computational-science,data-transformation-modelling,environmental-modelling,europe,free-scientific-knowledge,free-scientific-software,free-software,gdal,geospatial,geospatial-semantic-array-programming,gis,gnu-octave,gnu-r,guidos-mspa,integrated-modelling,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,mastrave-modelling-library,modelling,modelling-uncertainty,numpy,open-science,pktools,python,robust-modelling,science-policy-interface,scipy,semantic-array-programming,semantics,semap,software-engineering,software-errors,software-uncertainty,system-engineering,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11988844},
series = {Geophysical {{Research Abstracts}}}
}Rising Policy Conflicts in Europe over Bioenergy and Forestry. Söderberg, C. & Eckerberg, K. Forest Policy and Economics, 33:112–119, August, 2013.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
[Highlights] [::] EU Bioenergy policy cuts across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. [::] Increased pressure on forest biomass risks putting EU in a wood-deficit situation. [::] Bioenergy conflicts regard land use, biodiversity, climate and sustainability. [::] Conflicts on environmental consequences from bioenergy policy are reconcilable. [::] Conflicts on globally shared rights and responsibilities are not easily reconciled. [Abstract] Growing concerns over emissions of green-house gases causing climate change as well as energy security concerns have spurred the interest in bioenergy production pushed by EU targets to fulfil the goal of 20~per cent renewable energy in 2020, as well as the goal of 10~per cent renewable fuels in transport by 2020. Increased bioenergy production is also seen to have political and economic benefits for rural areas and farming regions in Europe and in the developing world. There are, however, conflicting views on the potential benefits of large scale bioenergy production, and recent debates have also drawn attention to a range of environmental and socio-economic issues that may arise in this respect. One of these challenges will be that of accommodating forest uses - including wood for energy, and resulting intensification of forest management - with biodiversity protection in order to meet EU policy goals. We note that the use of biomass and biofuels spans over several economic sector policy areas, which calls for assessing and integrating environmental concerns across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. In this paper, we employ frame analysis to identify the arguments for promoting bioenergy and assess the potential policy conflicts in the relevant sectors, through the analytical lens of environmental policy integration. We conclude that while there is considerable leverage of environmental arguments in favour of bioenergy in the studied economic sectors, and potential synergies with other policy goals, environmental interest groups remain sceptical to just how bioenergy is currently being promoted. There is a highly polarised debate particularly relating to biofuel production. Based on our analysis, we discuss the potential for how those issues could be reconciled drawing on the frame conflict theory, distinguishing between policy disagreements and policy controversies.
@article{soderbergRisingPolicyConflicts2013,
title = {Rising Policy Conflicts in {{Europe}} over Bioenergy and Forestry},
author = {S{\"o}derberg, Charlotta and Eckerberg, Katarina},
year = {2013},
month = aug,
volume = {33},
pages = {112--119},
issn = {1389-9341},
doi = {10.1016/j.forpol.2012.09.015},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] EU Bioenergy policy cuts across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. [::] Increased pressure on forest biomass risks putting EU in a wood-deficit situation. [::] Bioenergy conflicts regard land use, biodiversity, climate and sustainability. [::] Conflicts on environmental consequences from bioenergy policy are reconcilable. [::] Conflicts on globally shared rights and responsibilities are not easily reconciled.
[Abstract] Growing concerns over emissions of green-house gases causing climate change as well as energy security concerns have spurred the interest in bioenergy production pushed by EU targets to fulfil the goal of 20~per cent renewable energy in 2020, as well as the goal of 10~per cent renewable fuels in transport by 2020. Increased bioenergy production is also seen to have political and economic benefits for rural areas and farming regions in Europe and in the developing world. There are, however, conflicting views on the potential benefits of large scale bioenergy production, and recent debates have also drawn attention to a range of environmental and socio-economic issues that may arise in this respect. One of these challenges will be that of accommodating forest uses - including wood for energy, and resulting intensification of forest management - with biodiversity protection in order to meet EU policy goals. We note that the use of biomass and biofuels spans over several economic sector policy areas, which calls for assessing and integrating environmental concerns across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. In this paper, we employ frame analysis to identify the arguments for promoting bioenergy and assess the potential policy conflicts in the relevant sectors, through the analytical lens of environmental policy integration. We conclude that while there is considerable leverage of environmental arguments in favour of bioenergy in the studied economic sectors, and potential synergies with other policy goals, environmental interest groups remain sceptical to just how bioenergy is currently being promoted. There is a highly polarised debate particularly relating to biofuel production. Based on our analysis, we discuss the potential for how those issues could be reconciled drawing on the frame conflict theory, distinguishing between policy disagreements and policy controversies.},
journal = {Forest Policy and Economics},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11738844,~to-add-doi-URL,bioenergy,biomass,europe,forest-resources,ghg,science-policy-interface,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11738844}
}Approaches for the Quantification of Uncertainies in Stochasic Magnet Design. Römer, U., Schöps, S., & Weiland, T. December 2013.
bibtex
bibtex
@Talk{ Romer_2013ac,
address = {Darmstadt},
author = {Römer, Ulrich and Schöps, Sebastian and Weiland, Thomas},
booktitle = {Beam Dynamics meets Magnets in the {EuCARD2} {XBEAM}-{XRING} Network},
citable = {0},
day = {02},
file = {Romer_2013ac.pdf},
group = {schoeps,gsce,roemer},
internal = {0},
keywords = {magnet,uncertainty,nonlinear,bh,uq,magnetostatic},
langid = {english},
month = dec,
temf-id = {2316},
title = {Approaches for the Quantification of Uncertainies in Stochasic Magnet Design},
year = {2013}
}Extrapolation of survival data in cost-effectiveness analyses: improving the current state of play. Grieve, R., Hawkins, N. S., & Pennington, M. Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 33(6):740–742, 2013.
doi bibtex
doi bibtex
@article{grieve_extrapolation_2013-1,
title = {Extrapolation of survival data in cost-effectiveness analyses: improving the current state of play},
volume = {33},
issn = {1552-681X},
shorttitle = {Extrapolation of survival data in cost-effectiveness analyses},
doi = {10.1177/0272989X13492018},
language = {eng},
number = {6},
journal = {Medical Decision Making: An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making},
author = {Grieve, R. and Hawkins, N. S. and Pennington, M.},
year = {2013},
pmid = {23864435},
keywords = {Cost-Benefit Analysis, Humans, Survival Analysis, Uncertainty},
pages = {740--742},
}Using heat as a tracer to estimate spatially distributed mean residence times in the hyporheic zone of a riffle-pool sequence. Naranjo, R. C., Pohll, G., Niswonger, R. G., Stone, M., & Mckay, A. Water Resources Research, 2013.
Paper doi bibtex
Paper doi bibtex @article{ naranjo_using_2013,
title = {Using heat as a tracer to estimate spatially distributed mean residence times in the hyporheic zone of a riffle-pool sequence},
issn = {1944-7973},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20306},
doi = {10.1002/wrcr.20306},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
author = {Naranjo, Ramon C. and Pohll, Greg and Niswonger, Richard G. and Stone, Mark and Mckay, Alan},
year = {2013},
keywords = {1830 Groundwater/surface water interaction, 1832 Groundwater transport, 1847 Modeling, 1873 Uncertainty assessment, heat as a tracer, hyporheic zone, residence time, uncertainty},
pages = {n/a--n/a}
}Hidden Heat. Nature Nature, 500(7464):501, August, 2013.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Scientists are homing in on the reasons for the current hiatus in global warming, but all must recognize that the long-term risk of warming from carbon dioxide remains high.
@article{natureHiddenHeat2013,
title = {Hidden Heat},
author = {{Nature}},
year = {2013},
month = aug,
volume = {500},
pages = {501},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/500501a},
abstract = {Scientists are homing in on the reasons for the current hiatus in global warming, but all must recognize that the long-term risk of warming from carbon dioxide remains high.},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12601813,climate,climate-projections,global-scale,global-warming,modelling-uncertainty,temperature,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12601813},
number = {7464}
}Uncertainty in Self-Adaptive Software Systems. Esfahani, N. & Malek, S. In Lemos, R., Giese, H., Müller, H. A., & Shaw, M., editors, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, volume 7475, of Lecture Notes in Computer Science, pages 214–238. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
The ever-growing complexity of software systems coupled with their stringent availability requirements are challenging the manual management of software after its deployment. This has motivated the development of self-adaptive software systems. Self-adaptation endows a software system with the ability to satisfy certain objectives by automatically modifying its behavior at runtime. While many promising approaches for the construction of self-adaptive software systems have been developed, the majority of them ignore the uncertainty underlying the adaptation. This has been one of the key inhibitors to widespread adoption of self-adaption techniques in risk-averse real-world applications. Uncertainty in this setting is a vaguely understood term. In this paper, we characterize the sources of uncertainty in self-adaptive software system, and demonstrate its impact on the system's ability to satisfy its objectives. We then provide an alternative notion of optimality that explicitly incorporates the uncertainty underlying the knowledge (models) used for decision making. We discuss the state-of-the-art for dealing with uncertainty in this setting, and conclude with a set of challenges, which provide a road map for future research.
@incollection{esfahaniUncertaintySelfAdaptiveSoftware2013,
title = {Uncertainty in {{Self}}-{{Adaptive Software Systems}}},
booktitle = {Lecture {{Notes}} in {{Computer Science}}},
author = {Esfahani, Naeem and Malek, Sam},
editor = {Lemos, Rog{\'e}rio and Giese, Holger and M{\"u}ller, Hausi A. and Shaw, Mary},
year = {2013},
volume = {7475},
pages = {214--238},
publisher = {{Springer Berlin Heidelberg}},
issn = {0302-9743},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-642-35813-5\\_9},
abstract = {The ever-growing complexity of software systems coupled with their stringent availability requirements are challenging the manual management of software after its deployment. This has motivated the development of self-adaptive software systems. Self-adaptation endows a software system with the ability to satisfy certain objectives by automatically modifying its behavior at runtime. While many promising approaches for the construction of self-adaptive software systems have been developed, the majority of them ignore the uncertainty underlying the adaptation. This has been one of the key inhibitors to widespread adoption of self-adaption techniques in risk-averse real-world applications. Uncertainty in this setting is a vaguely understood term. In this paper, we characterize the sources of uncertainty in self-adaptive software system, and demonstrate its impact on the system's ability to satisfy its objectives. We then provide an alternative notion of optimality that explicitly incorporates the uncertainty underlying the knowledge (models) used for decision making. We discuss the state-of-the-art for dealing with uncertainty in this setting, and conclude with a set of challenges, which provide a road map for future research.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12272697,adaptive-control,computational-science,homeostasis,model-drift,optimisation,self-adaptive-systems,software-errors,software-uncertainty,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12272697},
series = {Lecture {{Notes}} in {{Computer Science}}}
}2012 (5)
Choice of Forest Map Has Implications for Policy Analysis: A Case Study on the EU Biofuel Target. Seebach, L., McCallum, I., Fritz, S., Kindermann, G., Leduc, S., Böttcher, H., & Fuss, S. Environmental Science & Policy, 22:13–24, October, 2012.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
With the increasing availability of European and global forest maps, users are facing the difficult choice to select the most appropriate map for their purposes. Many of these maps are potential input datasets for forest-related applications for the European Union (EU), due to their spatial extent and harmonised approach at the European level. However, they possess different characteristics in terms of spatial detail or thematic accuracy. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these characteristics on simulation models and the resultant policy implications. In this study we tested whether the choice of a forest map has substantial influence on model output, i.e. if output differences can be related to the input differences. A sensitivity analysis of the spatially explicit Global Forest Model (G4M) was performed using four different forest maps: the pan-European high resolution forest/non-forest map (FMAP), the Corine Land Cover (CLC), the Calibrated European Forest Map (CEFM) and the Global Land Cover (GLC). Finally, the impact of potential differences owing to input datasets on decision-making was tested in a selected case study: reaching the EU 10\,% biofuel target through enhanced utilization of forest biomass. The sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of the forest cover map has a major influence on the model outputs in particular at the country-level, while having less influence at the EU27 level. Differences between the input datasets are strongly reflected in the outputs. Similarly, depending on the choice of the input alternate options for decision-making were found within the hypothesized biofuel target (case study), demonstrating a substantial value of information. In general, it was demonstrated that input maps are the major driver of decision-making if forest resource outputs of the model are their basis. Improvement of the input forest map would result in immediate benefit for a better decision-making basis. \^a\textordmasculine Sensitivity analysis of a simulation model showed strong influence of forest maps. \^a\textordmasculine Strongest effect on model outputs at country-level, less influence at EU27 level. \^a\textordmasculine An EU biofuel case study found similar effect of forest maps on decision-making. \^a\textordmasculine Importance of careful choice of forest input maps for models is highlighted. \^a\textordmasculine Map improvement brings immediate benefit to decision-making policy process.
@article{seebachChoiceForestMap2012,
title = {Choice of Forest Map Has Implications for Policy Analysis: A Case Study on the {{EU}} Biofuel Target},
author = {Seebach, Lucia and McCallum, Ian and Fritz, Steffen and Kindermann, Georg and Leduc, Sylvain and B{\"o}ttcher, Hannes and Fuss, Sabine},
year = {2012},
month = oct,
volume = {22},
pages = {13--24},
issn = {1462-9011},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2012.04.010},
abstract = {With the increasing availability of European and global forest maps, users are facing the difficult choice to select the most appropriate map for their purposes. Many of these maps are potential input datasets for forest-related applications for the European Union (EU), due to their spatial extent and harmonised approach at the European level. However, they possess different characteristics in terms of spatial detail or thematic accuracy. Little attention has been paid to the effect of these characteristics on simulation models and the resultant policy implications. In this study we tested whether the choice of a forest map has substantial influence on model output, i.e. if output differences can be related to the input differences. A sensitivity analysis of the spatially explicit Global Forest Model (G4M) was performed using four different forest maps: the pan-European high resolution forest/non-forest map (FMAP), the Corine Land Cover (CLC), the Calibrated European Forest Map (CEFM) and the Global Land Cover (GLC). Finally, the impact of potential differences owing to input datasets on decision-making was tested in a selected case study: reaching the EU 10\,\% biofuel target through enhanced utilization of forest biomass. The sensitivity analysis showed that the choice of the forest cover map has a major influence on the model outputs in particular at the country-level, while having less influence at the EU27 level. Differences between the input datasets are strongly reflected in the outputs. Similarly, depending on the choice of the input alternate options for decision-making were found within the hypothesized biofuel target (case study), demonstrating a substantial value of information. In general, it was demonstrated that input maps are the major driver of decision-making if forest resource outputs of the model are their basis. Improvement of the input forest map would result in immediate benefit for a better decision-making basis. \^a\textordmasculine{} Sensitivity analysis of a simulation model showed strong influence of forest maps. \^a\textordmasculine{} Strongest effect on model outputs at country-level, less influence at EU27 level. \^a\textordmasculine{} An EU biofuel case study found similar effect of forest maps on decision-making. \^a\textordmasculine{} Importance of careful choice of forest input maps for models is highlighted. \^a\textordmasculine{} Map improvement brings immediate benefit to decision-making policy process.},
journal = {Environmental Science \& Policy},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10900721,bioenergy,communicating-uncertainty,environmental-modelling,europe,forest-resources,mapping,modelling,science-based-decision-making,science-policy-interface,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-10900721}
}Uncertainty and the Optimal Level of Specialization. Di Maio, M. & Valente, M. Research in Economics, 66(3):213–218, September, 2012.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Using a two-sector one-factor comparative-advantage-based trade model under uncertainty, we show that (1) to specialize according to comparative advantages may be sub-optimal in a multi-period setting; (2) there are conditions under which, even if agents are risk-neutral, the decentralized solution is inefficient and characterized by overspecialization. \^a\textordmasculine Comparative-advantage-induced full specialization may be sub-optimal in a multi-period setting. \^a\textordmasculine The centralized and the decentralized optimal level of specialization are different in a multi-period setting. \^a\textordmasculine The decentralized optimal level of specialization is inefficient and characterized by overspecialization.
@article{dimaioUncertaintyOptimalLevel2012,
title = {Uncertainty and the Optimal Level of Specialization},
author = {Di Maio, Michele and Valente, Marco},
year = {2012},
month = sep,
volume = {66},
pages = {213--218},
issn = {1090-9443},
doi = {10.1016/j.rie.2012.04.001},
abstract = {Using a two-sector one-factor comparative-advantage-based trade model under uncertainty, we show that (1) to specialize according to comparative advantages may be sub-optimal in a multi-period setting; (2) there are conditions under which, even if agents are risk-neutral, the decentralized solution is inefficient and characterized by overspecialization. \^a\textordmasculine{} Comparative-advantage-induced full specialization may be sub-optimal in a multi-period setting. \^a\textordmasculine{} The centralized and the decentralized optimal level of specialization are different in a multi-period setting. \^a\textordmasculine{} The decentralized optimal level of specialization is inefficient and characterized by overspecialization.},
journal = {Research in Economics},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10618916,competition,economics,local-over-complication,overspecialization,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-10618916},
number = {3}
}Adaptive Method for Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection – Application on a Stochastic Eddy Current NDT Problem. Beddek, K., Clénet, S., Moreau, O., Costan, V., Le Menach, Y., & Benabou, A. IEEE Transactions on Magnetics, 48(2):759–762, IEEE, February, 2012.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
The Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) method is widely used for uncertainty quantification in stochastic models. The determination of the expansion of the solution on the polynomial chaos requires the computation of multidimensional integrals. An automatic adaptive algorithm based on nested sparse grids has been developed to evaluate those integrals. The adapted algorithm takes into account the weight of each random variable with respect to the output of the model. To achieve that it constructs anisotropic sparse grid of the mean, leading to a reduction of the number of numerical simulations. Furthermore, the spectral form of the solution is explicitly identified from the constructed quadrature scheme. Numerical results obtained on an industrial application in NDT demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.
@Article{ Beddek_2012aa,
abstract = {The Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection (NISP) method is widely used for uncertainty quantification in stochastic models. The determination of the expansion of the solution on the polynomial chaos requires the computation of multidimensional integrals. An automatic adaptive algorithm based on nested sparse grids has been developed to evaluate those integrals. The adapted algorithm takes into account the weight of each random variable with respect to the output of the model. To achieve that it constructs anisotropic sparse grid of the mean, leading to a reduction of the number of numerical simulations. Furthermore, the spectral form of the solution is explicitly identified from the constructed quadrature scheme. Numerical results obtained on an industrial application in NDT demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method.},
author = {Beddek, Karim and Clénet, Stéphane and Moreau, Olivier and Costan, Valentin and Le Menach, Yvonnick and Benabou, Abdelkader},
doi = {10.1109/TMAG.2011.2175204},
file = {Beddek_2012aa.pdf},
issn = {0018-9464},
journal = {IEEE Transactions on Magnetics},
keywords = {fem,uncertainty,magnetics,polynomial-chaos,field,eddy-currents},
langid = {english},
month = feb,
number = {2},
pages = {759--762},
publisher = {IEEE},
title = {Adaptive Method for Non-Intrusive Spectral Projection -- Application on a Stochastic Eddy Current {NDT} Problem},
volume = {48},
year = {2012},
shortjournal = {IEEE Trans. Magn.}
}Constrained filtering with contact detection data for the localization and registration of continuum robots in flexible environments. Tully, S., Bajo, A., Kantor, G., Choset, H., & Simaan, N. In 2012 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, pages 3388–3394, May, 2012.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
This paper presents a novel filtering technique that uses contact detection data and environmental stiffness estimates to register and localize a robot with respect to an a priori 3D surface model. The algorithm leverages geometric constraints within a Kalman filter framework and relies on two distinct update procedures: 1) an equality constrained step for when the robot is forcefully contacting the environment, and 2) an inequality constrained step for when the robot lies in the free-space of the environment. This filtering procedure registers the robot by incrementally eliminating probabilistically infeasible state space regions until a high likelihood solution emerges. In addition to registration and localization, the algorithm can estimate the deformation of the surface model and can detect false positives with respect to contact estimation. This method is experimentally evaluated with an experiment involving a continuum robot interacting with a bench-top flexible structure. The presented algorithm produces an experimental error in registration (with respect to the end-effector position) of 1.1 mm, which is less than 0.8 percent of the robot length.
@inproceedings{tully_constrained_2012,
title = {Constrained filtering with contact detection data for the localization and registration of continuum robots in flexible environments},
doi = {10.1109/ICRA.2012.6225080},
abstract = {This paper presents a novel filtering technique that uses contact detection data and environmental stiffness estimates to register and localize a robot with respect to an a priori 3D surface model. The algorithm leverages geometric constraints within a Kalman filter framework and relies on two distinct update procedures: 1) an equality constrained step for when the robot is forcefully contacting the environment, and 2) an inequality constrained step for when the robot lies in the free-space of the environment. This filtering procedure registers the robot by incrementally eliminating probabilistically infeasible state space regions until a high likelihood solution emerges. In addition to registration and localization, the algorithm can estimate the deformation of the surface model and can detect false positives with respect to contact estimation. This method is experimentally evaluated with an experiment involving a continuum robot interacting with a bench-top flexible structure. The presented algorithm produces an experimental error in registration (with respect to the end-effector position) of 1.1 mm, which is less than 0.8 percent of the robot length.},
booktitle = {2012 {IEEE} {International} {Conference} on {Robotics} and {Automation}},
author = {Tully, S. and Bajo, A. and Kantor, G. and Choset, H. and Simaan, N.},
month = may,
year = {2012},
keywords = {3D surface model, Estimation, Kalman filter framework, Kalman filters, Robot kinematics, Robot sensing systems, Uncertainty, Vectors, bench-top flexible structure, constrained filtering, contact detection data, contact estimation, continuum robot localization, continuum robot registration, end effectors, end-effector position, equality constrained step, filtering theory, flexible environments, geometric constraints, medical robotics, solid modelling, surface model deformation estimation},
pages = {3388--3394}
}Comparison of two approaches to compute magnetic field in problems with random domains. Mac, H., Clénet, S., & Mipo, J. IET Science, Measurement & Technology, 6(5):331–338, September, 2012.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Methods are now available to solve numerically electromagnetic problems with uncertain input data (behaviour law or geometry). The stochastic approach consists in modelling uncertain data using random variables. Discontinuities on the magnetic field distribution in the stochastic dimension can arise in a problem with uncertainties on the geometry. The basis functions (polynomial chaos) usually used to approximate the unknown fields in the random dimensions are no longer suited. One possibility proposed in the literature is to introduce additional functions (enrichment function) to tackle the problem of discontinuity. In this study, the authors focus on the method of random mappings and they show that in this case the discontinuity are naturally taken into account and that no enrichment function needs to be added.
@Article{ Mac_2012aa,
abstract = {Methods are now available to solve numerically electromagnetic problems with uncertain input data (behaviour law or geometry). The stochastic approach consists in modelling uncertain data using random variables. Discontinuities on the magnetic field distribution in the stochastic dimension can arise in a problem with uncertainties on the geometry. The basis functions (polynomial chaos) usually used to approximate the unknown fields in the random dimensions are no longer suited. One possibility proposed in the literature is to introduce additional functions (enrichment function) to tackle the problem of discontinuity. In this study, the authors focus on the method of random mappings and they show that in this case the discontinuity are naturally taken into account and that no enrichment function needs to be added.},
author = {Mac, Hung and Clénet, Stéphane and Mipo, Jean-Claude},
doi = {10.1049/iet-smt.2011.0123},
file = {Mac_2012aa.pdf},
issn = {1751-8822},
journal = {IET Science, Measurement \& Technology},
keywords = {random,domain,uncertainty,static,electromagnetics},
langid = {english},
month = sep,
number = {5},
pages = {331--338},
title = {Comparison of two approaches to compute magnetic field in problems with random domains},
volume = {6},
year = {2012},
shortjournal = {IET. Sci. Meas. Tech.}
}2011 (4)
Development of a Transparent Interactive Decision Interrogator to Facilitate the Decision-Making Process in Health Care. Bujkiewicz, S., Jones, H. E., Lai, M. C., Cooper, N. J., Hawkins, N., Squires, H., Abrams, K. R., Spiegelhalter, D. J., & Sutton, A. J. Value in Health, 14(5):768–776, July, 2011.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Background: Decisions about the use of new technologies in health care are often based on complex economic models. Decision makers frequently make informal judgments about evidence, uncertainty, and the assumptions that underpin these models. Objectives: Transparent interactive decision interrogator (TIDI) facilitates more formal critique of decision models by decision makers such as members of appraisal committees of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in the UK. By allowing them to run advanced statistical models under different scenarios in real time, TIDI can make the decision process more efficient and transparent, while avoiding limitations on pre-prepared analysis. Methods: TIDI, programmed in Visual Basic for applications within Excel, provides an interface for controlling all components of a decision model developed in the appropriate software (e.g., meta-analysis in WinBUGS and the decision model in R) by linking software packages using RExcel and R2WinBUGS. TIDI’s graphical controls allow the user to modify assumptions and to run the decision model, and results are returned to an Excel spreadsheet. A tool displaying tornado plots helps to evaluate the influence of individual parameters on the model outcomes, and an interactive meta-analysis module allows the user to select any combination of available studies, explore the impact of bias adjustment, and view results using forest plots. We demonstrate TIDI using an example of a decision model in antenatal care. Conclusion: Use of TIDI during the NICE appraisal of tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (in psoriatic arthritis) successfully demonstrated its ability to facilitate critiques of the decision models by decision makers.
@article{bujkiewicz_development_2011-1,
title = {Development of a {Transparent} {Interactive} {Decision} {Interrogator} to {Facilitate} the {Decision}-{Making} {Process} in {Health} {Care}},
volume = {14},
issn = {10983015},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1098301510000896},
doi = {10.1016/j.jval.2010.12.002},
abstract = {Background: Decisions about the use of new technologies in health care are often based on complex economic models. Decision makers frequently make informal judgments about evidence, uncertainty, and the assumptions that underpin these models. Objectives: Transparent interactive decision interrogator (TIDI) facilitates more formal critique of decision models by decision makers such as members of appraisal committees of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence in the UK. By allowing them to run advanced statistical models under different scenarios in real time, TIDI can make the decision process more efficient and transparent, while avoiding limitations on pre-prepared analysis. Methods: TIDI, programmed in Visual Basic for applications within Excel, provides an interface for controlling all components of a decision model developed in the appropriate software (e.g., meta-analysis in WinBUGS and the decision model in R) by linking software packages using RExcel and R2WinBUGS. TIDI’s graphical controls allow the user to modify assumptions and to run the decision model, and results are returned to an Excel spreadsheet. A tool displaying tornado plots helps to evaluate the influence of individual parameters on the model outcomes, and an interactive meta-analysis module allows the user to select any combination of available studies, explore the impact of bias adjustment, and view results using forest plots. We demonstrate TIDI using an example of a decision model in antenatal care. Conclusion: Use of TIDI during the NICE appraisal of tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (in psoriatic arthritis) successfully demonstrated its ability to facilitate critiques of the decision models by decision makers.},
language = {en},
number = {5},
urldate = {2019-08-06},
journal = {Value in Health},
author = {Bujkiewicz, Sylwia and Jones, Hayley E. and Lai, Monica C.W. and Cooper, Nicola J. and Hawkins, Neil and Squires, Hazel and Abrams, Keith R. and Spiegelhalter, David J. and Sutton, Alex J.},
month = jul,
year = {2011},
keywords = {Arthritis, Bias, Biomedical, Computer Graphics, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Decision Support Techniques, Drug Costs, Economic, Evidence-Based Medicine, Fetus, Health Services Research, Humans, Immunosuppressive Agents, Models, Outcome and Process Assessment (Health Care), Prenatal Diagnosis, Psoriatic, Rh Isoimmunization, Rh-Hr Blood-Group System, Rho(D) Immune Globulin, Software, Statistical, Technology Assessment, Treatment Outcome, Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha, Uncertainty, United Kingdom, User-Computer Interface},
pages = {768--776},
file = {Bujkiewicz et al. - 2011 - Development of a Transparent Interactive Decision .pdf:/Users/neil.hawkins/Zotero/storage/SWNTRTZX/Bujkiewicz et al. - 2011 - Development of a Transparent Interactive Decision .pdf:application/pdf},
}Consequences of Climate Change on the Tree of Life in Europe. Thuiller, W., Lavergne, S., Roquet, C., Boulangeat, I., Lafourcade, B., & Araujo, M. Nature, 470(7335):531–534, February, 2011.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes1, 2, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history3, 4, 5. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.
@article{thuillerConsequencesClimateChange2011,
title = {Consequences of Climate Change on the Tree of Life in {{Europe}}},
author = {Thuiller, Wilfried and Lavergne, Sebastien and Roquet, Cristina and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Lafourcade, Bruno and Araujo, Miguel},
year = {2011},
month = feb,
volume = {470},
pages = {531--534},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/nature09705},
abstract = {Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes1, 2, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history3, 4, 5. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8834184,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,consensus,ensemble,median,modelling,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8834184},
number = {7335}
}The Description / Experience Gap in the Case of Uncertainty. Arló-Costa, H. & Helzner, J. ISIPTA, 2011.
bibtex
bibtex
@article{Arlo-costa2011,
author = {Arl\'{o}-Costa, H. and Helzner, Jeffrey},
journal = {ISIPTA},
keywords = {description,descriptive,ex-,normative,perience,uncertainty},
title = {{The Description / Experience Gap in the Case of Uncertainty}},
year = {2011}
}Optimizing clinical environments for knowledge translation: strategies for nursing leaders. Scott, S., D., VandenBeld, B., & Cummings, G., G. Nursing leadership (Toronto, Ont.), 24(3):73-85, 2011.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex Using findings from our recent study that found that a context of uncertainty in the work environment hindered nurses' research utilization, we suggest strategies for nurse managers and leaders to optimize clinical environments and support efforts to put research into clinical practice (knowledge translation). Two important sources of uncertainty were the complexity of teamwork and inconsistency in management and leadership styles. To reduce the uncertainty arising from teamwork, we propose (a) clarifying nurses' scopes of practice, (b) increasing knowledge sharing through supporting journal clubs and enhanced computer access and (c) creating safe venues for multidisciplinary dialogue. To reduce uncertainty arising from variations in management and leadership, we propose (a) developing policies that enhance the consistency of leadership and clarify the strategic direction of the management team, (b) clearly communicating those policies to nurses and (c) providing explicit rationales for treatment changes. Small, incremental steps can be taken to realize substantive changes in clinical environments in order to optimize nursing work environments for knowledge translation.
@article{
title = {Optimizing clinical environments for knowledge translation: strategies for nursing leaders.},
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year = {2011},
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keywords = {Evidence-Based Nursing,Humans,Models, Nursing,Models, Organizational,Nurse Administrators,Nursing, Supervisory,Organizational Culture,Patient Care Team,evidence based nursing,human,leadership,methodology,model,nonbiological model,nurse administrator,nursing,nursing research,organization,organization and management,patient care,psychological aspect,review,social environment,uncertainty},
pages = {73-85},
volume = {24},
websites = {http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84857378230&partnerID=40&md5=01153990c31273801d8559dc71b43d25},
city = {Affiliation: Faculty of Nursing, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.; Correspondence Address: Scott, S.D.email: Shannon.scott@ualberta.ca},
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private_publication = {false},
abstract = {Using findings from our recent study that found that a context of uncertainty in the work environment hindered nurses' research utilization, we suggest strategies for nurse managers and leaders to optimize clinical environments and support efforts to put research into clinical practice (knowledge translation). Two important sources of uncertainty were the complexity of teamwork and inconsistency in management and leadership styles. To reduce the uncertainty arising from teamwork, we propose (a) clarifying nurses' scopes of practice, (b) increasing knowledge sharing through supporting journal clubs and enhanced computer access and (c) creating safe venues for multidisciplinary dialogue. To reduce uncertainty arising from variations in management and leadership, we propose (a) developing policies that enhance the consistency of leadership and clarify the strategic direction of the management team, (b) clearly communicating those policies to nurses and (c) providing explicit rationales for treatment changes. Small, incremental steps can be taken to realize substantive changes in clinical environments in order to optimize nursing work environments for knowledge translation.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Scott, S D and VandenBeld, B and Cummings, G G},
journal = {Nursing leadership (Toronto, Ont.)},
number = {3}
}2010 (5)
The optimal size of a permit market. Krysiak, F. C. & Schweitzer, P. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 60(2):133--143, September, 2010.
Paper doi bibtex
Paper doi bibtex @article{krysiak_optimal_2010,
title = {The optimal size of a permit market},
volume = {60},
issn = {00950696},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0095069610000562},
doi = {10.1016/j.jeem.2010.05.001},
number = {2},
journal = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
author = {Krysiak, Frank C. and Schweitzer, Patrick},
month = sep,
year = {2010},
keywords = {Asymmetric information, Hot spot, Non-uniformly mixed pollutant, Regulation, Spatial model, Tradable permits, uncertainty},
pages = {133--143},
file = {ScienceDirect Full Text PDF:files/31871/Krysiak and Schweitzer - 2010 - The optimal size of a permit market.pdf:application/pdf;ScienceDirect Snapshot:files/31872/science.html:text/html}
}Future climate in the Pacific Northwest. Mote, P. W. & Salathé, E. P. Climatic Change, 102(1-2):29–50, September, 2010.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8A degrees C (1.5A degrees F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1A degrees C (2.0A degrees F) by the 2020s, 1.8A degrees C (3.2A degrees F) by the 2040s, and 3.0A degrees C (5.3A degrees F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1A degrees C to 0.6A degrees C (0.2A degrees F to 1.0A degrees F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1% to +2%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8(aEuro3)) or as large as 1.3 m (50(aEuro3)).
@article{mote_future_2010,
title = {Future climate in the {Pacific} {Northwest}},
volume = {102},
issn = {0165-0009},
url = {://000281978500003},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z},
abstract = {Climate models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on the whole reproduce the observed seasonal cycle and twentieth century warming trend of 0.8A degrees C (1.5A degrees F) in the Pacific Northwest, and point to much greater warming for the next century. These models project increases in annual temperature of, on average, 1.1A degrees C (2.0A degrees F) by the 2020s, 1.8A degrees C (3.2A degrees F) by the 2040s, and 3.0A degrees C (5.3A degrees F) by the 2080s, compared with the average from 1970 to 1999, averaged across all climate models. Rates of warming range from 0.1A degrees C to 0.6A degrees C (0.2A degrees F to 1.0A degrees F) per decade. Projected changes in annual precipitation, averaged over all models, are small (+1\% to +2\%), but some models project an enhanced seasonal cycle with changes toward wetter autumns and winters and drier summers. Changes in nearshore sea surface temperatures, though smaller than on land, are likely to substantially exceed interannual variability, but coastal upwelling changes little. Rates of twenty-first century sea level rise will depend on poorly known factors like ice sheet instability in Greenland and Antarctica, and could be as low as twentieth century values (20 cm, 8(aEuro3)) or as large as 1.3 m (50(aEuro3)).},
language = {English},
number = {1-2},
journal = {Climatic Change},
author = {Mote, P. W. and Salathé, E. P.},
month = sep,
year = {2010},
keywords = {20th-century, change impacts, model, precipitation, range, simulations, temperature, trends, uncertainty, united-states},
pages = {29--50},
}UncertWeb: Chaining Web Services Accounting for Uncertainty. Cornford, D., Jones, R., Bastin, L., Williams, M., Pebesma, E., & Nativi, S. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 12:9052+, May, 2010.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
The development of interoperable services that permit access to data and processes, typically using web service based standards opens up the possibility for increasingly complex chains of data and processes, which might be discovered and composed in increasingly automatic ways. This concept, sometimes referred to as the "Model Web", offers the promise of integrated (Earth) system models, with pluggable web service based components which can be discovered, composed and evaluated dynamically. A significant issue with such service chains, indeed in any composite model composed of coupled components, is that in all interesting (non-linear) cases the effect of uncertainties on inputs, or components within the chain will have complex, potentially unexpected effects on the outputs. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project we will be developing a mechanism and an accompanying set of tools to enable rigorous uncertainty management in web based service chains involving both data and processes. The project will exploit and extend the UncertML candidate standard to flexibly propagate uncertainty through service chains, including looking at mechanisms to develop uncertainty enabled profiles of existing Open Geospatial Consortium services. To facilitate the use of such services we will develop tools to address the definition of the input uncertainties (elicitation), manage the uncertainty propagation (emulation), undertake uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and visualise the output uncertainty. In this talk we will outline the challenges of the UncertWeb project, illustrating this with a prototype service chain we have created for correcting station level pressure to sea-level pressure, which accounts for the various uncertainties involved. In particular we will discuss some of the challenges of chaining Open Geospatial Consortium services using the Business Process Execution Language. We will also address the issue of computational cost and communication bandwidth requirements for such systems. While the cost of obtaining an rigorous uncertainty analysis can be high, we would argue that without such quantified uncertainty estimates the output of a chain is almost useless, particularly in the case that the chain has been discovered and composed (semi) automatically.
@article{cornfordUncertWebChainingWeb2010,
title = {{{UncertWeb}}: Chaining Web Services Accounting for Uncertainty},
author = {Cornford, D. and Jones, R. and Bastin, L. and Williams, M. and Pebesma, E. and Nativi, S.},
year = {2010},
month = may,
volume = {12},
pages = {9052+},
issn = {1607-7962},
abstract = {The development of interoperable services that permit access to data and processes, typically using web service based standards opens up the possibility for increasingly complex chains of data and processes, which might be discovered and composed in increasingly automatic ways. This concept, sometimes referred to as the "Model Web", offers the promise of integrated (Earth) system models, with pluggable web service based components which can be discovered, composed and evaluated dynamically. A significant issue with such service chains, indeed in any composite model composed of coupled components, is that in all interesting (non-linear) cases the effect of uncertainties on inputs, or components within the chain will have complex, potentially unexpected effects on the outputs. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project we will be developing a mechanism and an accompanying set of tools to enable rigorous uncertainty management in web based service chains involving both data and processes. The project will exploit and extend the UncertML candidate standard to flexibly propagate uncertainty through service chains, including looking at mechanisms to develop uncertainty enabled profiles of existing Open Geospatial Consortium services. To facilitate the use of such services we will develop tools to address the definition of the input uncertainties (elicitation), manage the uncertainty propagation (emulation), undertake uncertainty and sensitivity analysis and visualise the output uncertainty. In this talk we will outline the challenges of the UncertWeb project, illustrating this with a prototype service chain we have created for correcting station level pressure to sea-level pressure, which accounts for the various uncertainties involved. In particular we will discuss some of the challenges of chaining Open Geospatial Consortium services using the Business Process Execution Language. We will also address the issue of computational cost and communication bandwidth requirements for such systems. While the cost of obtaining an rigorous uncertainty analysis can be high, we would argue that without such quantified uncertainty estimates the output of a chain is almost useless, particularly in the case that the chain has been discovered and composed (semi) automatically.},
journal = {Geophysical Research Abstracts},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13321751,ogc,uncertainty,web-services},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13321751},
series = {{{EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts}}}
}Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water Shortage in Phoenix. Gober, P. & Kirkwood, C. W. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(50):21295–21299, December, 2010.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterSim, is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030, even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk.
@article{goberVulnerabilityAssessmentClimateinduced2010,
title = {Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water Shortage in {{Phoenix}}},
author = {Gober, Patricia and Kirkwood, Craig W.},
year = {2010},
month = dec,
volume = {107},
pages = {21295--21299},
issn = {1091-6490},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0911113107},
abstract = {Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterSim, is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030, even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8424286,assessment,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,deep-uncertainty,global-warming,uncertainty,united-states,water-scarcity},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8424286},
number = {50}
}Towards a possibility-theoretic approach to uncertainty in medical data interpretation for text generation. Portet, F & Gatt, A In Riano, S., ten Teije, A, & Peleg, M, editors, Knowledge Representation for Health-Care: Data, Processes and Guidelines, pages 155–168. Springer, Berlin and Heidelberg, 2010.
![Towards a possibility-theoretic approach to uncertainty in medical data interpretation for text generation [pdf]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg "pdf")
Paper bibtex
Paper bibtex @incollection{portet2010towards,
Address = {Berlin and Heidelberg},
Author = {Portet, F and Gatt, A},
Booktitle = {Knowledge Representation for Health-Care: Data, Processes and Guidelines},
Editor = {SMD Riano and A ten Teije and M Peleg},
Pages = {155--168},
Publisher = {Springer},
Title = {Towards a possibility-theoretic approach to uncertainty in medical data interpretation for text generation},
Url = {http://staff.um.edu.mt/albert.gatt/pubs/kr4hc-book-final.pdf},
Year = {2010},
Keywords = {natural language generation, data-to-text, fuzzy sets, uncertainty, modals}}2009 (2)
Multi-Stage Voting, Sequential Elimination and Condorcet Consistency. Bag, P. K., Sabourian, H., & Winter, E. Journal of Economic Theory, 144(3):1278–1299, May, 2009.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
A class of voting procedures based on repeated ballots and elimination of one candidate in each round is shown to always induce an outcome in the top cycle and is thus Condorcet consistent, when voters behave strategically. This is an important class as it covers multi-stage, sequential elimination extensions of all standard one-shot voting rules (with the exception of negative voting), the same one-shot rules that would fail Condorcet consistency. The necessity of repeated ballots and sequential elimination are demonstrated by further showing that Condorcet consistency would fail in all standard voting rules that violate one or both of these conditions.
@article{bagMultistageVotingSequential2009,
title = {Multi-Stage Voting, Sequential Elimination and {{Condorcet}} Consistency},
author = {Bag, Parimal K. and Sabourian, Hamid and Winter, Eyal},
year = {2009},
month = may,
volume = {144},
pages = {1278--1299},
issn = {0022-0531},
doi = {10.1016/j.jet.2008.11.012},
abstract = {A class of voting procedures based on repeated ballots and elimination of one candidate in each round is shown to always induce an outcome in the top cycle and is thus Condorcet consistent, when voters behave strategically. This is an important class as it covers multi-stage, sequential elimination extensions of all standard one-shot voting rules (with the exception of negative voting), the same one-shot rules that would fail Condorcet consistency. The necessity of repeated ballots and sequential elimination are demonstrated by further showing that Condorcet consistency would fail in all standard voting rules that violate one or both of these conditions.},
journal = {Journal of Economic Theory},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-4368976,decision-making-procedure,democracy,human-behaviour,mathematical-reasoning,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface,society,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-4368976},
number = {3}
}The role of risks and uncertainties in technological conflicts: Three strategies of constructing ignorance. Stankiewicz, P. Innovation, 22(1):105–124, 2009. 1
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
How are the conflicts over the use of certain technologies - such as biotechnology, nuclear energy or nanotechnologies - being solved? What are the methods used by conflicting parties to assert their definitions of reality? What role do uncertainties and risks play in these conflicts? How are they treated? What strategies are used by proponents and opponents of a controversial technology to persuade the public and decision-makers? This article aims at finding answers to these questions by looking at technological conflicts from the perspective of the reduction of risks and uncertainty. The lesson drawn from the study of ongoing and past conflicts over controversies in technological development should help to better understand the dynamics of conflicts focused on converging technologies. The reduction of uncertainty is analyzed from the perspective of the sociology of non-knowledge and ignorance. It is argued that new areas of non-knowledge are being created by reducing uncertainty and risks in technological conflicts. © 2009 Interdisciplinary Centre for Comparative Research in the Social Sciences and ICCR Foundation.
@article{stankiewicz_role_2009,
title = {The role of risks and uncertainties in technological conflicts: {Three} strategies of constructing ignorance},
volume = {22},
shorttitle = {The role of risks and uncertainties in technological conflicts},
doi = {10.1080/13511610902770636},
abstract = {How are the conflicts over the use of certain technologies - such as biotechnology, nuclear energy or nanotechnologies - being solved? What are the methods used by conflicting parties to assert their definitions of reality? What role do uncertainties and risks play in these conflicts? How are they treated? What strategies are used by proponents and opponents of a controversial technology to persuade the public and decision-makers? This article aims at finding answers to these questions by looking at technological conflicts from the perspective of the reduction of risks and uncertainty. The lesson drawn from the study of ongoing and past conflicts over controversies in technological development should help to better understand the dynamics of conflicts focused on converging technologies. The reduction of uncertainty is analyzed from the perspective of the sociology of non-knowledge and ignorance. It is argued that new areas of non-knowledge are being created by reducing uncertainty and risks in technological conflicts. © 2009 Interdisciplinary Centre for Comparative Research in the Social Sciences and ICCR Foundation.},
number = {1},
journal = {Innovation},
author = {Stankiewicz, P.},
year = {2009},
note = {1},
keywords = {10 Ignorance, uncertainty and risk, Controversies, Ignorance, incertitude et risque, Non-knowledge, PRINTED (Fonds papier), Risk, Technological conflicts, ignorance, uncertainty},
pages = {105--124},
}2007 (2)
Ensemble Forecasting of Species Distributions. Araujo, M. & New, M. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 22(1):42–47, January, 2007.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.
@article{araujoEnsembleForecastingSpecies2007,
title = {Ensemble Forecasting of Species Distributions},
author = {Araujo, M. and New, M.},
year = {2007},
month = jan,
volume = {22},
pages = {42--47},
issn = {0169-5347},
doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2006.09.010},
abstract = {Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.},
journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-1030028,consensus,ensemble,modelling,robust-modelling,species-distribution,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-1030028},
number = {1}
}Task Sequencing for High-Level Sensor-Based Control. Mansard, N. & Chaumette, F. IEEE Transactions on Robotics, 23(1):60–72, February, 2007.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Classical sensor-based approaches tend to constrain all the degrees of freedom of a robot during the execution of a task. In this paper, a new solution is proposed. The key idea is to divide the global full-constraining task into several subtasks, which can be applied or inactivated to take into account potential constraints of the environment. Far from any constraint, the robot moves according to the full task. When it comes closer to a configuration to avoid, a higher level controller removes one or several subtasks, and activates them again when the constraint is avoided. The last controller ensures the convergence at the global level by introducing some look-ahead capabilities when a local minimum is reached. The robot accomplishes the global task by automatically sequencing sensor-based tasks, obstacle avoidance, and short deliberative phases. In this paper, a complete solution to implement this idea is proposed, along with several experiments that prove the validity of this approach
@article{mansard_task_2007,
title = {Task {Sequencing} for {High}-{Level} {Sensor}-{Based} {Control}},
volume = {23},
issn = {1552-3098},
doi = {10.1109/TRO.2006.889487},
abstract = {Classical sensor-based approaches tend to constrain all the degrees of freedom of a robot during the execution of a task. In this paper, a new solution is proposed. The key idea is to divide the global full-constraining task into several subtasks, which can be applied or inactivated to take into account potential constraints of the environment. Far from any constraint, the robot moves according to the full task. When it comes closer to a configuration to avoid, a higher level controller removes one or several subtasks, and activates them again when the constraint is avoided. The last controller ensures the convergence at the global level by introducing some look-ahead capabilities when a local minimum is reached. The robot accomplishes the global task by automatically sequencing sensor-based tasks, obstacle avoidance, and short deliberative phases. In this paper, a complete solution to implement this idea is proposed, along with several experiments that prove the validity of this approach},
number = {1},
journal = {IEEE Transactions on Robotics},
author = {Mansard, N. and Chaumette, F.},
month = feb,
year = {2007},
keywords = {Automatic control, Avoidance, Motion control, Motion planning, Robot control, Robot sensing systems, Robotics and automation, Uncertainty, collision avoidance, high-level sensor-based control, mobile robots, obstacle avoidance, path planning, planning, redundancy, robot motion control, sensor-based control, sequences, task sequencing, tasks sequencing, visual servoing},
pages = {60--72}
}2006 (1)
Improving Generalized Regression Analysis for the Spatial Prediction of Forest Communities. Maggini, R., Lehmann, A., Zimmermann, N. E., & Guisan, A. Journal of Biogeography, 33(10):1729–1749, October, 2006.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.
@article{magginiImprovingGeneralizedRegression2006,
title = {Improving Generalized Regression Analysis for the Spatial Prediction of Forest Communities},
author = {Maggini, Ramona and Lehmann, Anthony and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Guisan, Antoine},
year = {2006},
month = oct,
volume = {33},
pages = {1729--1749},
issn = {0305-0270},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x},
abstract = {Aim\hspace{0.6em} This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location\hspace{0.6em} State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods\hspace{0.6em} Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results\hspace{0.6em} Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions\hspace{0.6em} Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.},
journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-835166,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,bioclimatic-predictors,correlation-analysis,forest-resources,habitat-suitability,statistics,uncertainty,weighting},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-835166},
number = {10}
}2005 (2)
Uncertainty in discount models and environmental accounting. Ludwig, D., Brock, W., & Carpenter, S. R. Ecology and Society, 2005.
bibtex
bibtex
@article{ludwig_uncertainty_2005,
title = {Uncertainty in discount models and environmental accounting},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
journal = {Ecology and Society},
author = {Ludwig, Donald. and Brock, William. and Carpenter, Stephen R.},
year = {2005},
keywords = {NTL, eutrophication, ecosystem service, uncertainty, ecological economics, atlantic right whale, cost-benefit analysis, discounting, renewable resource}
}Solving elliptic boundary value problems with uncertain coefficients by the finite element method: the stochastic formulation. Babuška, I., Tempone, R., & Zouraris, G. E. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 194(12–16):1251–1294, Elsevier, 2005.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
This work studies a linear elliptic problem with uncertainty. The introduction gives a survey of different formulations of the uncertainty and resulting numerical approximations. The major emphasis of this work is the probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, addressing the problem of solving linear elliptic boundary value problems with stochastic coefficients. If the stochastic coefficients are known functions of a random vector, then the stochastic elliptic boundary value problem is turned into a parametric deterministic one with solution u(y, x), y ∈ Γ, x ∈ D, where D ⊂ R d , d = 1, 2, 3, and Γ is a high-dimensional cube. In addition, the function u is specified as the solution of a deterministic variational problem over Γ × D. A tensor product finite element method, of h-version in D and k-, or, p-version in Γ, is proposed for the approximation of u. A priori error estimates are given and an adaptive algorithm is also proposed. Due to the high dimension of Γ, the Monte Carlo finite element method is also studied here. This work compares the asymptotic complexity of the numerical methods, and shows results from numerical experiments. Comments on the uncertainty in the probabilistic characterization of the coefficients in the stochastic formulation are included.
@Article{ Babuska_2005ab,
abstract = {This work studies a linear elliptic problem with uncertainty. The introduction gives a survey of different formulations of the uncertainty and resulting numerical approximations. The major emphasis of this work is the probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, addressing the problem of solving linear elliptic boundary value problems with stochastic coefficients. If the stochastic coefficients are known functions of a random vector, then the stochastic elliptic boundary value problem is turned into a parametric deterministic one with solution u(y, x), y ∈ Γ, x ∈ D, where D ⊂ R d , d = 1, 2, 3, and Γ is a high-dimensional cube. In addition, the function u is specified as the solution of a deterministic variational problem over Γ × D. A tensor product finite element method, of h-version in D and k-, or, p-version in Γ, is proposed for the approximation of u. A priori error estimates are given and an adaptive algorithm is also proposed. Due to the high dimension of Γ, the Monte Carlo finite element method is also studied here. This work compares the asymptotic complexity of the numerical methods, and shows results from numerical experiments. Comments on the uncertainty in the probabilistic characterization of the coefficients in the stochastic formulation are included. },
author = {Babuška, Ivo and Tempone, Raúl and Zouraris, Georgios E.},
doi = {10.1016/j.cma.2004.02.026},
file = {Babuska_2005ab.pdf},
issn = {0045-7825},
journal = {Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering},
keywords = {elliptic,uncertainty},
langid = {english},
number = {12–16},
pages = {1251--1294},
publisher = {Elsevier},
title = {Solving elliptic boundary value problems with uncertain coefficients by the finite element method: the stochastic formulation},
volume = {194},
year = {2005},
shortjournal = {Comput. Meth. Appl. Mech. Eng.}
}2004 (2)
Would Climate Change Drive Species out of Reserves? An Assessment of Existing Reserve-Selection Methods. Araujo, M. B., Cabeza, M., Thuiller, W., Hannah, L., & Williams, P. H. Global Change Biology, 10(9):1618–1626, September, 2004.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6-11\,% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50-year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6\,% being 1-3\,% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2-5\,% to the choice of reserve-selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5\,% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2\,% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93\,% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.
@article{araujoWouldClimateChange2004,
title = {Would Climate Change Drive Species out of Reserves? {{An}} Assessment of Existing Reserve-Selection Methods},
author = {Araujo, Miguel B. and Cabeza, Mar and Thuiller, Wilfried and Hannah, Lee and Williams, Paul H.},
year = {2004},
month = sep,
volume = {10},
pages = {1618--1626},
issn = {1354-1013},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x},
abstract = {Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6-11\,\% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50-year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6\,\% being 1-3\,\% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2-5\,\% to the choice of reserve-selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5\,\% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2\,\% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93\,\% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-201812,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,clustering,conservation,europe,species-dispersal,species-distribution,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-201812},
number = {9}
}A methodology to assess the profitability of Bt-cotton: case study results from the state of Karnataka, India. Pemsl, D., Waibel, H., & Orphal, J. Crop Protection, 23(12):1249-1257, 2004.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
Bt-cotton varieties can control lepidopterous pests, hence offering the possibility to reduce chemical pesticide use. India, with the largest cotton-growing area globally, gave commercial approval for Bt cotton in 2002 and a rapid adoption of the technology is expected. This paper uses a stochastic partial budgeting approach that captures the key pest control properties of Bt cotton taking into account uncertainty of pest pressure, control effectiveness and prices to assess the profitability effects of Bt varieties and hence complements previous studies that generally excluded such issues. Results of the simulation model reveal that under the current price situation a prophylactic chemical control strategy dominates the use of Bt varieties in both, irrigated and non-irrigated cotton. The effect of a higher cotton price is assessed in a second scenario that depicts a Bt cotton variety with improved fiber quality than varieties currently approved for commercial planting. Under this assumption, the Bt strategy would be slightly better than the prophylactic use of chemical pesticides. The model can be extended to include pests other than the bollworm and correlations among variables, e.g. prices and yield, provided sufficient evidence for such correlation exists. Results of this analysis show the impact of uncertainty in the main variables that influence the profitability of Bt cotton and alternative crop protection methods.
@article{
title = {A methodology to assess the profitability of Bt-cotton: case study results from the state of Karnataka, India},
type = {article},
year = {2004},
identifiers = {[object Object]},
keywords = {Bt cotton,Economic assessment,Profitability,Uncertainty},
pages = {1249-1257},
volume = {23},
websites = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6T5T-4D1YXNJ-1/2/e155087123c544361c8f90b733984b76},
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last_modified = {2012-01-05T13:14:50.000Z},
tags = {Bt cotton,India,developing countries,economic,environmental,pesticide use,producer income and expenses,productivity},
read = {false},
starred = {false},
authored = {false},
confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
source_type = {Journal Article},
abstract = {Bt-cotton varieties can control lepidopterous pests, hence offering the possibility to reduce chemical pesticide use. India, with the largest cotton-growing area globally, gave commercial approval for Bt cotton in 2002 and a rapid adoption of the technology is expected. This paper uses a stochastic partial budgeting approach that captures the key pest control properties of Bt cotton taking into account uncertainty of pest pressure, control effectiveness and prices to assess the profitability effects of Bt varieties and hence complements previous studies that generally excluded such issues. Results of the simulation model reveal that under the current price situation a prophylactic chemical control strategy dominates the use of Bt varieties in both, irrigated and non-irrigated cotton. The effect of a higher cotton price is assessed in a second scenario that depicts a Bt cotton variety with improved fiber quality than varieties currently approved for commercial planting. Under this assumption, the Bt strategy would be slightly better than the prophylactic use of chemical pesticides. The model can be extended to include pests other than the bollworm and correlations among variables, e.g. prices and yield, provided sufficient evidence for such correlation exists. Results of this analysis show the impact of uncertainty in the main variables that influence the profitability of Bt cotton and alternative crop protection methods.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Pemsl, D and Waibel, H and Orphal, J},
journal = {Crop Protection},
number = {12}
}2002 (1)
Ecological responses to recent climate change. Walther, G., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T., J., C., Fromentin, J., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Bairlein, F., & Anonymous Nature, 416(6879):389-395, 2002.
Website bibtex
Website bibtex @article{
title = {Ecological responses to recent climate change},
type = {article},
year = {2002},
identifiers = {[object Object]},
pages = {389-395},
volume = {416},
websites = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/416389a},
id = {8df9a2db-99ef-3ba6-898e-d4e6c32695d8},
created = {2011-02-22T18:00:53.000Z},
file_attached = {false},
profile_id = {c04350e2-ca59-3023-9537-35726b8dc7ec},
group_id = {3addd0f7-d578-34d3-be80-24022cc062a1},
last_modified = {2019-06-04T14:58:47.448Z},
read = {false},
starred = {false},
authored = {false},
confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
citation_key = {Walther2002},
source_type = {Journal Article},
notes = {M3: 10.1038/416389a; 10.1038/416389a<m:linebreak></m:linebreak>Journal Article},
private_publication = {false},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Walther, G and Post, E and Convey, P and Menzel, A and Parmesan, C and Beebee, T J C and Fromentin, J and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Bairlein, F and Anonymous, undefined},
journal = {Nature},
number = {6879}
}2001 (1)
Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates. Pacala, S. W., Hurtt, G. C., Baker, D., Peylin, P., Houghton, R. A., Birdsey, R. A., Heath, L., Sundquist, E. T., Stallard, R. F., Ciais, P., Moorcroft, P., Caspersen, J. P., Shevliakova, E., Moore, B., Kohlmaier, G., Holland, E., Gloor, M., Harmon, M. E., Fan, S. M., Sarmiento, J. L., Goodale, C. L., Schimel, D., & Field, C. B. Science, 292(5525):2316–2320, 2001.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 1015 grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.
@article{pacalaConsistentLandAtmospherebased2001,
title = {Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based {{U}}.{{S}}. Carbon Sink Estimates},
author = {Pacala, S. W. and Hurtt, G. C. and Baker, D. and Peylin, P. and Houghton, R. A. and Birdsey, R. A. and Heath, L. and Sundquist, E. T. and Stallard, R. F. and Ciais, P. and Moorcroft, P. and Caspersen, J. P. and Shevliakova, E. and Moore, B. and Kohlmaier, G. and Holland, E. and Gloor, M. and Harmon, M. E. and Fan, S. M. and Sarmiento, J. L. and Goodale, C. L. and Schimel, D. and Field, C. B.},
year = {2001},
volume = {292},
pages = {2316--2320},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.1057320},
abstract = {For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 1015 grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.},
journal = {Science},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007180,carbon-cycle,forest-resources,uncertainty,united-states},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14007180},
number = {5525}
}1998 (2)
Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods. Caflisch, R. E. Acta Numerica, 7:1–49, January, 1998.
doi bibtex
doi bibtex
@Article{ Caflisch_1998aa,
author = {Caflisch, Russel E.},
doi = {10.1017/S0962492900002804},
file = {Caflisch_1998aa.pdf},
group = {casper},
issn = {1474-0508},
journal = {Acta Numerica},
keywords = {monte-carlo,uncertainty,quadrature},
langid = {english},
month = jan,
pages = {1--49},
title = {Monte {Carlo} and quasi-{Monte} {Carlo} methods},
volume = {7},
year = {1998},
shortjournal = {Acta. Num.}
}Visualizing Georeferenced data: Representing reliability of health statistics. Alan, M., M., Brewer, C., A., & Linda, W., P. Environment and Planning: A, 1998.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex The power of human vision to synthesize information and recognize pattern is fundamental to the success of visualization as a scientific method. This same power call mislead investigators who use visualization to explore georeferenced data-if data reliability is not addressed directly in the visualization process. Here, we apply an integrated cognitive-semiotic approach to devise and test three methods for depicting reliability of georeferenced health data. The first method makes use of adjacent maps, one for data and one for reliability. This form of paired representation is compared to two methods in which data and reliability are spatially coincident ton a single map). A novel method for coincident visually separable depiction of data and data reliability on mortality maps (using a color fill to represent data and a texture overlay to represent reliability) is found to be effective in allowing map users to recognize unreliable data without interfering with their ability to notice clusters and characterize patterns in mortality rates. A coincident visually integral depiction (using color characteristics to represent both data and reliability) is found to inhibit perception of clusters that contain some enumeration units with unreliable data, and to make it difficult for users to consider data and reliability independently.
@article{
title = {Visualizing Georeferenced data: Representing reliability of health statistics},
type = {article},
year = {1998},
keywords = {Lung-cancer,display,maps,reliability,uncertainty},
volume = {30},
websites = {http://www.geovista.psu.edu/publications/MacEachren/MacEachren_Visualizing_98.pdf},
id = {977979cd-5620-3f07-9c2d-215e9b1a1ba8},
created = {2018-05-29T14:06:29.596Z},
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confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
citation_key = {13130},
source_type = {article},
notes = {NCHS},
private_publication = {false},
abstract = {The power of human vision to synthesize information and recognize pattern is fundamental to the success of visualization as a scientific method. This same power call mislead investigators who use visualization to explore georeferenced data-if data reliability is not addressed directly in the visualization process. Here, we apply an integrated cognitive-semiotic approach to devise and test three methods for depicting reliability of georeferenced health data. The first method makes use of adjacent maps, one for data and one for reliability. This form of paired representation is compared to two methods in which data and reliability are spatially coincident ton a single map). A novel method for coincident visually separable depiction of data and data reliability on mortality maps (using a color fill to represent data and a texture overlay to represent reliability) is found to be effective in allowing map users to recognize unreliable data without interfering with their ability to notice clusters and characterize patterns in mortality rates. A coincident visually integral depiction (using color characteristics to represent both data and reliability) is found to inhibit perception of clusters that contain some enumeration units with unreliable data, and to make it difficult for users to consider data and reliability independently.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Alan, M MacEachren and Brewer, C A and Linda, W Pickle},
journal = {Environment and Planning: A}
}1995 (1)
Mapping health statistics: Representing data reliability. Alan, M., M., Brewer, C., A., & Linda, W., P. 1995.
Website bibtex
Website bibtex @misc{
title = {Mapping health statistics: Representing data reliability},
type = {misc},
year = {1995},
source = {Proceedings of the 17th International Cartographic Conference},
keywords = {choropleth,health maps,merger,overlay,reliability,uncertainty,\textdaggervisualization},
websites = {http://www.geovista.psu.edu/publications/ica1995/MacEachren_ Mapping health statistics.pdf},
publisher = {International Cartographic Association},
city = {Barcelona, Spain, September 3-9},
id = {9a3fad46-c343-366f-8650-e86049024967},
created = {2018-05-29T14:05:56.732Z},
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last_modified = {2018-05-29T14:05:56.732Z},
read = {false},
starred = {false},
authored = {false},
confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
citation_key = {13129},
source_type = {booklet},
notes = {NCHS},
private_publication = {false},
bibtype = {misc},
author = {Alan, M MacEachren and Brewer, C A and Linda, W Pickle}
}1993 (1)
Elastic bands: connecting path planning and control. Quinlan, S. & Khatib, O. In [1993] Proceedings IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation, pages 802–807 vol.2, May, 1993.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Elastic bands are proposed as the basis for a framework to close the gap between global path planning and real-time sensor-based robot control. An elastic band is a deformable collision-free path. The initial shape of the elastic is the free path generated by a planner. Subjected to artificial forces, the elastic band deforms in real time to a short and smooth path that maintains clearance from the obstacles. The elastic continues to deform as changes in the environment are detected by sensors, enabling the robot to accommodate uncertainties and react to unexpected and moving obstacles. While providing a tight connection between the robot and its environment, the elastic band preserves the global nature of the planned path. The framework is outlined, and an efficient implementation based on bubbles is discussed.\textless\textgreater
@inproceedings{quinlan_elastic_1993,
title = {Elastic bands: connecting path planning and control},
shorttitle = {Elastic bands},
doi = {10.1109/ROBOT.1993.291936},
abstract = {Elastic bands are proposed as the basis for a framework to close the gap between global path planning and real-time sensor-based robot control. An elastic band is a deformable collision-free path. The initial shape of the elastic is the free path generated by a planner. Subjected to artificial forces, the elastic band deforms in real time to a short and smooth path that maintains clearance from the obstacles. The elastic continues to deform as changes in the environment are detected by sensors, enabling the robot to accommodate uncertainties and react to unexpected and moving obstacles. While providing a tight connection between the robot and its environment, the elastic band preserves the global nature of the planned path. The framework is outlined, and an efficient implementation based on bubbles is discussed.{\textless}{\textgreater}},
booktitle = {[1993] {Proceedings} {IEEE} {International} {Conference} on {Robotics} and {Automation}},
author = {Quinlan, S. and Khatib, O.},
month = may,
year = {1993},
keywords = {Computer science, Control systems, Control theory, Joining processes, Laboratories, Path planning, Robot control, Robot sensing systems, Shape, Uncertainty, bubbles, computerised control, deformable collision-free path, elastic band, global path planning, path planning, real-time sensor-based robot control, robots, uncertainties},
pages = {802--807 vol.2}
}1990 (2)
On sensitivity estimation for nonlinear mathematical models. Sobol', I. M. Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie, 2(1):112–-118, 1990. Mathematical Modeling & Computational Experiment (Engl.), 1993, 1, 407–414.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
A theorem about decomposition of an integrable function into summands of different dimensions is proved. A Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for estimating the sensitivity of a function with respect to arbitrary groups of variables.
@Article{ Sobol_1990aa,
abstract = {A theorem about decomposition of an integrable function into summands of different dimensions is proved. A Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for estimating the sensitivity of a function with respect to arbitrary groups of variables.},
author = {Sobol', Ilya M.},
file = {Sobol_1990aa.pdf},
journal = {Matematicheskoe Modelirovanie},
keywords = {uncertainty,sensitivity,sobol},
langid = {russian},
note = {Mathematical Modeling \& Computational Experiment (Engl.), 1993, 1, 407–414.},
number = {1},
pages = {112–-118},
title = {On sensitivity estimation for nonlinear mathematical models},
volume = {2},
year = {1990}
}Adaptive Robust Control Scheme Applied to a Single-Zone HVAC System. Chen, Y. H., Lee, K. M., & Wepfer, W. J. In 1990 American Control Conference, pages 1076–1081, May, 1990.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
The present paper addresses the modelling and control of a heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system while the system is operating under uncertainty. The uncertainty may be due to thermal storage effect, heat and moisture generation, and outside temperature and humidity change. These may be unpredictable for a generic room. The adaptive robust control proposed for this system will take the uncertainty into account. No statistical information of the uncertainty is ever needed. The uncertainty is assumed bounded but the bound is unknown.
@inproceedings{chen_adaptive_1990,
title = {Adaptive {Robust} {Control} {Scheme} {Applied} to a {Single}-{Zone} {HVAC} {System}},
abstract = {The present paper addresses the modelling and control of a heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system while the system is operating under uncertainty. The uncertainty may be due to thermal storage effect, heat and moisture generation, and outside temperature and humidity change. These may be unpredictable for a generic room. The adaptive robust control proposed for this system will take the uncertainty into account. No statistical information of the uncertainty is ever needed. The uncertainty is assumed bounded but the bound is unknown.},
booktitle = {1990 {American} {Control} {Conference}},
author = {Chen, Y. H. and Lee, K. M. and Wepfer, W. J.},
month = may,
year = {1990},
keywords = {Adaptive control, Control systems, Humidity, Moisture, Programmable control, Robust control, Temperature control, Temperature sensors, Uncertainty, optimal control},
pages = {1076--1081},
}undefined (37)
Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields under Climate Change. Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., Ruane, A. C., Boote, K. J., Thorburn, P. J., Rötter, R. P., Cammarano, D., Brisson, N., Basso, B., Martre, P., Aggarwal, P. K., Angulo, C., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L. A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R. C., Kersebaum, K. C., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Osborne, T. M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Travasso, M., Waha, K., Wallach, D., White, J. W., Williams, J. R., & Wolf, J. 3(9):827–832.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policy making.
@article{assengUncertaintySimulatingWheat2013,
title = {Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields under Climate Change},
author = {Asseng, S. and Ewert, F. and Rosenzweig, C. and Jones, J. W. and Hatfield, J. L. and Ruane, A. C. and Boote, K. J. and Thorburn, P. J. and Rötter, R. P. and Cammarano, D. and Brisson, N. and Basso, B. and Martre, P. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Angulo, C. and Bertuzzi, P. and Biernath, C. and Challinor, A. J. and Doltra, J. and Gayler, S. and Goldberg, R. and Grant, R. and Heng, L. and Hooker, J. and Hunt, L. A. and Ingwersen, J. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Müller, C. and Naresh Kumar, S. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Osborne, T. M. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Ripoche, D. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Steduto, P. and Stöckle, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Travasso, M. and Waha, K. and Wallach, D. and White, J. W. and Williams, J. R. and Wolf, J.},
date = {2013-06},
journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {3},
pages = {827--832},
issn = {1758-678X},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate1916},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1916},
abstract = {Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policy making.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12438735,agricultural-land,agricultural-resources,climate-change,crop-yield,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,integration-techniques,multiauthor,science-policy-interface,transdisciplinary-research,uncertainty,wheat},
number = {9}
}Reframing Ecosystem Management in the Era of Climate Change: Issues and Knowledge from Forests. Mori, A. S., Spies, T. A., Sudmeier-Rieux, K., & Andrade, A. 165:115–127.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex We discuss ” ecosystem management (EM)” to face contemporary climate change issues. EM focuses on sustaining ecosystems to meet both ecological and human needs. EM plans have been largely developed independent of concerns about climate change. However, EM is potentially effective for climate change mitigation and adaptation. We provide the principle guidelines based on EM to adaptively tackle the issues. Climate change is one of the significant concerns in land and resource management, creating an urgent need to build social-ecological capacity to address widespread and uncertain environmental changes. Given the diversity and complexity of ecological responses to climate change ” ecosystem management” approaches are needed to provide solutions for meeting both ecological and human needs, while reducing anthropogenic warming and climate-related impacts on society. For instance, ecosystem management can contribute to a reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions through improved land-use and reduced deforestation at a regional scale. Further, conserving and restoring naturally-functioning ecosystems, which is often one of the goals of ecosystem management can significantly contribute to buffering ecological responses to climate extremes such as droughts and wildfires. Moreover, ecosystem management helps build capacity for learning and adaptation at multiple scales. As a result, societies will be better prepared to respond to surprises and uncertainties associated with climate change. In this regard, it is imperative to reframe climate change issues based on the ecosystem approach. Although climate change and ecosystem management plans have largely developed independently, it is now essential for all stakeholders to work together to achieve multiple goals. The ecosystem-based approaches can enable flexible and effective responses to the uncertainties associated with climate change. Reframing ecosystem management helps to face an urgent need for reconsideration and improvement of social-ecological resilience in order to mitigate and adapt to the changing climate. [Excerpt: Conclusion] Novel approaches underpinned by sociology, ecology and climate science are necessary to perform assessments that reflect the many roles that ecosystem management can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. No single method and focal scale for addressing the effects or causes of climate change exists. Indeed, there are often trade-offs such as those between the goals of building resilience (learning from failure) and reducing vulnerability (minimizing failure) (Adger et al., 2008), suggesting some policies aimed at minimizing exposure to any hazards at the regional scale can potentially conflict with the proactive implementation of adaptive management at the local scale. In this article, we have discussed reframing ecosystem management as an effective way to address the uncertainties of climate change. It is therefore necessary to adopt flexible and robust management strategies that consider various scenarios, rather than adopting a single measure. Similar to climate change, which is intricately connected to other issues beyond physical climatic change, ecological issues are deeply associated with global issues. A number of environmental policies and plans have been historically developed with little consideration of climate instability. Among them, our attempt that integrates different management considerations into the common context lends a strong support for the objectives and approaches of ecosystem management as an effective tool to face climate change uncertainties. [\n] It is important for all stakeholders to work together to identity multiple goals. Ecologists need to address ecosystem processes and functions in the context of possible future conditions; resource managers and policymakers need to build capacity for learning and adaptation; and all stakeholders need to share a recognition that social-ecological systems are interacting not only with each other (social-ecological interdependence) but also with the climate system. In keeping with the view of Moss et al. (2010) that the future climate largely depends on the behaviour of global society, the fates of ecosystems will strongly depend on how human society faces climate change. In particular, there are still important gaps in the combined study of climate and ecosystem science that need to be addressed. At the time of UNFCCC meetings in Copenhagen in 2009, UNEP (2009a) stated that climate information, when coupled with other information such as ecology and socio-economics, should be centralized within policy formulation and decision making process for practical ecosystem management at local and regional scales with reasonable timescales of the next several decades. Bringing different fields together is essential to tackle future complexity. The constructive improvements that come from an ecosystem management strategy, as summarized in Table 2, has the potential to effectively fill the gaps among disciplines and stakeholders.
@article{moriReframingEcosystemManagement2013,
title = {Reframing Ecosystem Management in the Era of Climate Change: Issues and Knowledge from Forests},
author = {Mori, Akira S. and Spies, Thomas A. and Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen and Andrade, Angela},
date = {2013-09},
journaltitle = {Biological Conservation},
volume = {165},
pages = {115--127},
issn = {0006-3207},
doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2013.05.020},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.05.020},
abstract = {We discuss ” ecosystem management (EM)” to face contemporary climate change issues. EM focuses on sustaining ecosystems to meet both ecological and human needs. EM plans have been largely developed independent of concerns about climate change. However, EM is potentially effective for climate change mitigation and adaptation. We provide the principle guidelines based on EM to adaptively tackle the issues. Climate change is one of the significant concerns in land and resource management, creating an urgent need to build social-ecological capacity to address widespread and uncertain environmental changes. Given the diversity and complexity of ecological responses to climate change ” ecosystem management” approaches are needed to provide solutions for meeting both ecological and human needs, while reducing anthropogenic warming and climate-related impacts on society. For instance, ecosystem management can contribute to a reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions through improved land-use and reduced deforestation at a regional scale. Further, conserving and restoring naturally-functioning ecosystems, which is often one of the goals of ecosystem management can significantly contribute to buffering ecological responses to climate extremes such as droughts and wildfires. Moreover, ecosystem management helps build capacity for learning and adaptation at multiple scales. As a result, societies will be better prepared to respond to surprises and uncertainties associated with climate change. In this regard, it is imperative to reframe climate change issues based on the ecosystem approach. Although climate change and ecosystem management plans have largely developed independently, it is now essential for all stakeholders to work together to achieve multiple goals. The ecosystem-based approaches can enable flexible and effective responses to the uncertainties associated with climate change. Reframing ecosystem management helps to face an urgent need for reconsideration and improvement of social-ecological resilience in order to mitigate and adapt to the changing climate.
[Excerpt: Conclusion]
Novel approaches underpinned by sociology, ecology and climate science are necessary to perform assessments that reflect the many roles that ecosystem management can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. No single method and focal scale for addressing the effects or causes of climate change exists. Indeed, there are often trade-offs such as those between the goals of building resilience (learning from failure) and reducing vulnerability (minimizing failure) (Adger et al., 2008), suggesting some policies aimed at minimizing exposure to any hazards at the regional scale can potentially conflict with the proactive implementation of adaptive management at the local scale. In this article, we have discussed reframing ecosystem management as an effective way to address the uncertainties of climate change. It is therefore necessary to adopt flexible and robust management strategies that consider various scenarios, rather than adopting a single measure. Similar to climate change, which is intricately connected to other issues beyond physical climatic change, ecological issues are deeply associated with global issues. A number of environmental policies and plans have been historically developed with little consideration of climate instability. Among them, our attempt that integrates different management considerations into the common context lends a strong support for the objectives and approaches of ecosystem management as an effective tool to face climate change uncertainties.
[\textbackslash n] It is important for all stakeholders to work together to identity multiple goals. Ecologists need to address ecosystem processes and functions in the context of possible future conditions; resource managers and policymakers need to build capacity for learning and adaptation; and all stakeholders need to share a recognition that social-ecological systems are interacting not only with each other (social-ecological interdependence) but also with the climate system. In keeping with the view of Moss et al. (2010) that the future climate largely depends on the behaviour of global society, the fates of ecosystems will strongly depend on how human society faces climate change. In particular, there are still important gaps in the combined study of climate and ecosystem science that need to be addressed. At the time of UNFCCC meetings in Copenhagen in 2009, UNEP (2009a) stated that climate information, when coupled with other information such as ecology and socio-economics, should be centralized within policy formulation and decision making process for practical ecosystem management at local and regional scales with reasonable timescales of the next several decades. Bringing different fields together is essential to tackle future complexity. The constructive improvements that come from an ecosystem management strategy, as summarized in Table 2, has the potential to effectively fill the gaps among disciplines and stakeholders.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13912160,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,climate-change,climate-extremes,droughts,ecology,ecosystem,forest-resources,incomplete-knowledge,knowledge-integration,mitigation,uncertainty,wildfires}
}Interaction between Ash and Soil Microaggregates Reduces Runoff and Soil Loss. Thomaz, E. L. 625:1257–1263.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] An exploratory experiment was carried out using ash from a prescribed fire. [::] Interaction between the ash and soil microaggregates reduced runoff by 78%. [::] The ash–soil microaggregates interaction also reduced soil loss by 26%. [::] The ash treatment increased soil loss by 47% compared to the case of bare soil. [::] Fine particles at the topsoil do not necessarily mean the development of surface sealing. [Abstract] Areas subjected to fire have a two-layer system (i.e., ash and soil), which brings enormous complexities to hydrogeomorphic processes. In addition, the combinations of variables from the ash and the soil characteristics result in several possible two-layer system contexts. Here, the interactions among ash and microaggregates (i.e., ash placed over fine soil microaggregates) and their effects on hydro-erosional processes are explored. The ash was produced by an experimental fire and collected from a field managed by a slash-and-burn agricultural system. The design of the experiment included a strategy for considering combinations in which each of the various factors of interest, i.e., ash and microaggregates, was present or absent. In addition, the study searched for interactions between the two factors when both were present. In total, 600 g m2 of fine ash mixture ($<$0.250 mm), obtained from fire at different temperatures, and 90 g m2 of microaggregates was placed over a small splash pan (0.135 m2). Next, a rainfall of 56 mm h−1 lasting for 30 min was applied in four replicates for each treatment: 1) bare soil, 2) bare soil + microaggregates, 3) ash, and 4) ash + microaggregates. The interaction between the ash and soil microaggregates changed the soil hydrology dynamics, reducing soil moisture by 28% and surface runoff by 78%. The ash–microaggregates combination reduced soil loss by sheetwash by 20% and by rainsplash by 25%. Overall, the ash treatment increased soil loss by 47% compared to the case of bare soil. On the contrary, the ash–microaggregates interaction decreased soil loss by 26% compared to the ash treatment.
@article{thomazInteractionAshSoil2018,
title = {Interaction between Ash and Soil Microaggregates Reduces Runoff and Soil Loss},
author = {Thomaz, Edivaldo L.},
date = {2018-06-01},
journaltitle = {Science of The Total Environment},
shortjournal = {Science of The Total Environment},
volume = {625},
pages = {1257--1263},
issn = {0048-9697},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.046},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.046},
urldate = {2019-12-04},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] An exploratory experiment was carried out using ash from a prescribed fire.
[::] Interaction between the ash and soil microaggregates reduced runoff by 78\%.
[::] The ash–soil microaggregates interaction also reduced soil loss by 26\%.
[::] The ash treatment increased soil loss by 47\% compared to the case of bare soil.
[::] Fine particles at the topsoil do not necessarily mean the development of surface sealing.
[Abstract]
Areas subjected to fire have a two-layer system (i.e., ash and soil), which brings enormous complexities to hydrogeomorphic processes. In addition, the combinations of variables from the ash and the soil characteristics result in several possible two-layer system contexts. Here, the interactions among ash and microaggregates (i.e., ash placed over fine soil microaggregates) and their effects on hydro-erosional processes are explored. The ash was produced by an experimental fire and collected from a field managed by a slash-and-burn agricultural system. The design of the experiment included a strategy for considering combinations in which each of the various factors of interest, i.e., ash and microaggregates, was present or absent. In addition, the study searched for interactions between the two factors when both were present. In total, 600 g m2 of fine ash mixture ({$<$}0.250 mm), obtained from fire at different temperatures, and 90 g m2 of microaggregates was placed over a small splash pan (0.135 m2). Next, a rainfall of 56 mm h−1 lasting for 30 min was applied in four replicates for each treatment: 1) bare soil, 2) bare soil + microaggregates, 3) ash, and 4) ash + microaggregates. The interaction between the ash and soil microaggregates changed the soil hydrology dynamics, reducing soil moisture by 28\% and surface runoff by 78\%. The ash–microaggregates combination reduced soil loss by sheetwash by 20\% and by rainsplash by 25\%. Overall, the ash treatment increased soil loss by 47\% compared to the case of bare soil. On the contrary, the ash–microaggregates interaction decreased soil loss by 26\% compared to the ash treatment.},
keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-XNMZJEXD,brazil,data-uncertainty,erodibility,modelling-uncertainty,post-fire-impacts,runoff,soil-erosion,soil-resources,uncertainty,wildfires},
langid = {english}
}Welcome to Postnormal Times. Sardar, Z. 42(5):435–444.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex All that was 'normal' has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks to individuals, society and the planet. Postnormal times demands, this paper argues, that we abandon the ideas of 'control and management', and rethink the cherished notions of progress, modernisation and efficiency. The way forward must be based on virtues of humility, modesty and accountability, the indispensible requirement of living with uncertainty, complexity and ignorance. We will have to imagine ourselves out of postnormal times and into a new age of normalcy – with an ethical compass and a broad spectrum of imaginations from the rich diversity of human cultures.
@article{sardarWelcomePostnormalTimes2010,
title = {Welcome to Postnormal Times},
author = {Sardar, Ziauddin},
date = {2010-06},
journaltitle = {Futures},
volume = {42},
pages = {435--444},
issn = {0016-3287},
doi = {10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.028},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.028},
abstract = {All that was 'normal' has now evaporated; we have entered postnormal times, the in-between period where old orthodoxies are dying, new ones have not yet emerged, and nothing really makes sense. To have any notion of a viable future, we must grasp the significance of this period of transition which is characterised by three c's: complexity, chaos and contradictions. These forces propel and sustain postnormal times leading to uncertainty and different types of ignorance that make decision-making problematic and increase risks to individuals, society and the planet. Postnormal times demands, this paper argues, that we abandon the ideas of 'control and management', and rethink the cherished notions of progress, modernisation and efficiency. The way forward must be based on virtues of humility, modesty and accountability, the indispensible requirement of living with uncertainty, complexity and ignorance. We will have to imagine ourselves out of postnormal times and into a new age of normalcy -- with an ethical compass and a broad spectrum of imaginations from the rich diversity of human cultures.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-6230082,~to-add-doi-URL,chaos,complexity,deep-uncertainty,ethics,feedback,mitigation,non-linearity,post-normal-science,science-ethics,science-society-interface,social-system,technocracy,trade-offs,uncertainty,unknown},
number = {5}
}A Review of the Mechanical Effects of Plant Roots on Concentrated Flow Erosion Rates. Vannoppen, W., Vanmaercke, M., De Baets, S., & Poesen, J. 150:666–678.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Living plant roots modify both mechanical and hydrological characteristics of the soil matrix (e.g. soil aggregate stability by root exudates, soil cohesion, infiltration rate, soil moisture content, soil organic matter) and negatively influence the soil erodibility. During the last two decades several studies reported on the effects of plant roots in controlling concentrated flow erosion rates. However a global analysis of the now available data on root effects is still lacking. Yet, a meta-data analysis will contribute to a better understanding of the soil-root interactions as our capability to assess the effectiveness of roots in reducing soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow in different environments remains difficult. The objectives of this study are therefore: i) to provide a state of the art on studies quantifying the effectiveness of roots in reducing soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow; and ii) to explore the overall trends in erosion reduction as a function of the root (length) density, root architecture and soil texture, based on an integrated analysis of published data. We therefore compiled a dataset of measured soil detachment ratios (SDR) for the root density (RD; 822 observations) as well as for the root length density (RLD; 274 observations). A Hill curve model best describes the decrease in SDR as a function of R(L)D. An important finding of our meta-analysis is that RLD is a much more suitable variable to estimate SDR compared to RD as it is linked to root architecture. However, a large proportion of the variability in SDR could not be attributed to RD or RLD, resulting in a low predictive accuracy of these Hill curve models with a model efficiency of 0.11 and 0.17 for RD and RLD respectively. Considering root architecture and soil texture did yield a better predictive model for RLD with a model efficiency of 0.37 for fibrous roots in non-sandy soils while no improvement was found for RD. The unexplained variance is attributed to differences in experimental set-ups and measuring errors which could not be explicitly accounted for due to a lack of additional data. Based on those results, it remains difficult to predict the effects of roots on soil erosion rates. However, by using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we were able to establish relationships that allow assessing the likely erosion-reducing effects of plant roots, while taking these uncertainties into account. Overall, this study demonstrates that plant roots can be very effective in reducing soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow. [Excerpt: Conclusions] Vegetation can be used to reduce soil degradation by soil erosion processes. This study showed that plant roots can be very effective in controlling soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow. A combination of a well-established vegetation cover together with a dense root system in the topsoil is therefore most effective and recommended to protect the soil against soil erosion processes by water. The erosion-reducing potential of plant roots can be explained by their indirect negative effect on soil erodibility through affecting various soil properties (e.g. aggregate stability, cohesion, organic matter content, infiltration rate and moisture content). However both the environment and management practices have to be taken into account as they influence the effectiveness of plant roots in reducing soil erosion rates. Analysis of a global dataset based on published data showed that the decrease in SDR as a function of RD or RLD could be best described by a Hill curve model. Root architecture and soil texture were further considered as an attempt to improve the models. This resulted in better predictive models for RLD (for fibrous roots in non-sandy soils) while no improvement could be observed for RD. Consequently, it remains difficult to predict the erosion-reducing effects of plant roots on concentrated flow erosion rates as still a large part of the variance remains unexplained. Results of the Monte Carlo analyses ( Fig. 5) present confidence intervals on estimated SDR values for the proposed models that should be used as an estimation of the uncertainty range. As such, the established relationships between root (length) density and the soil detachment ratio allow for meaningful estimations of the mechanical effects of plant roots on concentrated flow erosion rates. The advantage of this approach is that the results of this study can be extrapolated to different environments to examine the likely root effects on erosion rates, as we implicitly take into account the variability in root and soil characteristics. [\n] As tap root systems are less effective in controlling soil erosion compared to fibrous roots, we furthermore prefer the use of RLD as root variable as it indirectly takes into account the root architecture. The influence of soil texture on erosion-reducing potential could not be demonstrated due to a lack of sufficient data on the erosion-reducing potential of plant roots in different soil textures. More empirical studies are needed to examine the role of soil texture on the erosion-reducing potential. Moreover, a more accurate global database is needed to unravel the influence of additional soil, root and environmental variables on the erosion-reducing potential of plant roots and to improve the predictive quality of the models.
@article{vannoppenReviewMechanicalEffects2015,
title = {A Review of the Mechanical Effects of Plant Roots on Concentrated Flow Erosion Rates},
author = {Vannoppen, W. and Vanmaercke, M. and De Baets, S. and Poesen, J.},
date = {2015-11},
journaltitle = {Earth-Science Reviews},
volume = {150},
pages = {666--678},
issn = {0012-8252},
doi = {10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.08.011},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2015.08.011},
abstract = {Living plant roots modify both mechanical and hydrological characteristics of the soil matrix (e.g. soil aggregate stability by root exudates, soil cohesion, infiltration rate, soil moisture content, soil organic matter) and negatively influence the soil erodibility. During the last two decades several studies reported on the effects of plant roots in controlling concentrated flow erosion rates. However a global analysis of the now available data on root effects is still lacking. Yet, a meta-data analysis will contribute to a better understanding of the soil-root interactions as our capability to assess the effectiveness of roots in reducing soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow in different environments remains difficult. The objectives of this study are therefore: i) to provide a state of the art on studies quantifying the effectiveness of roots in reducing soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow; and ii) to explore the overall trends in erosion reduction as a function of the root (length) density, root architecture and soil texture, based on an integrated analysis of published data. We therefore compiled a dataset of measured soil detachment ratios (SDR) for the root density (RD; 822 observations) as well as for the root length density (RLD; 274 observations). A Hill curve model best describes the decrease in SDR as a function of R(L)D. An important finding of our meta-analysis is that RLD is a much more suitable variable to estimate SDR compared to RD as it is linked to root architecture. However, a large proportion of the variability in SDR could not be attributed to RD or RLD, resulting in a low predictive accuracy of these Hill curve models with a model efficiency of 0.11 and 0.17 for RD and RLD respectively. Considering root architecture and soil texture did yield a better predictive model for RLD with a model efficiency of 0.37 for fibrous roots in non-sandy soils while no improvement was found for RD. The unexplained variance is attributed to differences in experimental set-ups and measuring errors which could not be explicitly accounted for due to a lack of additional data. Based on those results, it remains difficult to predict the effects of roots on soil erosion rates. However, by using a Monte Carlo simulation approach, we were able to establish relationships that allow assessing the likely erosion-reducing effects of plant roots, while taking these uncertainties into account. Overall, this study demonstrates that plant roots can be very effective in reducing soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow.
[Excerpt: Conclusions]
Vegetation can be used to reduce soil degradation by soil erosion processes. This study showed that plant roots can be very effective in controlling soil erosion rates due to concentrated flow. A combination of a well-established vegetation cover together with a dense root system in the topsoil is therefore most effective and recommended to protect the soil against soil erosion processes by water. The erosion-reducing potential of plant roots can be explained by their indirect negative effect on soil erodibility through affecting various soil properties (e.g. aggregate stability, cohesion, organic matter content, infiltration rate and moisture content). However both the environment and management practices have to be taken into account as they influence the effectiveness of plant roots in reducing soil erosion rates. Analysis of a global dataset based on published data showed that the decrease in SDR as a function of RD or RLD could be best described by a Hill curve model. Root architecture and soil texture were further considered as an attempt to improve the models. This resulted in better predictive models for RLD (for fibrous roots in non-sandy soils) while no improvement could be observed for RD. Consequently, it remains difficult to predict the erosion-reducing effects of plant roots on concentrated flow erosion rates as still a large part of the variance remains unexplained. Results of the Monte Carlo analyses ( Fig. 5) present confidence intervals on estimated SDR values for the proposed models that should be used as an estimation of the uncertainty range. As such, the established relationships between root (length) density and the soil detachment ratio allow for meaningful estimations of the mechanical effects of plant roots on concentrated flow erosion rates. The advantage of this approach is that the results of this study can be extrapolated to different environments to examine the likely root effects on erosion rates, as we implicitly take into account the variability in root and soil characteristics.
[\textbackslash n] As tap root systems are less effective in controlling soil erosion compared to fibrous roots, we furthermore prefer the use of RLD as root variable as it indirectly takes into account the root architecture. The influence of soil texture on erosion-reducing potential could not be demonstrated due to a lack of sufficient data on the erosion-reducing potential of plant roots in different soil textures. More empirical studies are needed to examine the role of soil texture on the erosion-reducing potential. Moreover, a more accurate global database is needed to unravel the influence of additional soil, root and environmental variables on the erosion-reducing potential of plant roots and to improve the predictive quality of the models.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13794980,~to-add-doi-URL,boreal-forests,comparison,eucalyptus-citriodora,forest-resources,macchia,modelling,pinus-tabulaeformis,review,robinia-pseudoacacia,sclerophyllous,soil-erosion,soil-resources,stabilization,uncertainty,vegetation}
}Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based U.S. Carbon Sink Estimates. Pacala, S. W., Hurtt, G. C., Baker, D., Peylin, P., Houghton, R. A., Birdsey, R. A., Heath, L., Sundquist, E. T., Stallard, R. F., Ciais, P., Moorcroft, P., Caspersen, J. P., Shevliakova, E., Moore, B., Kohlmaier, G., Holland, E., Gloor, M., Harmon, M. E., Fan, S. M., Sarmiento, J. L., Goodale, C. L., Schimel, D., & Field, C. B. 292(5525):2316–2320.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 1015 grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.
@article{pacalaConsistentLandAtmospherebased2001,
title = {Consistent Land- and Atmosphere-Based {{U}}.{{S}}. Carbon Sink Estimates},
author = {Pacala, S. W. and Hurtt, G. C. and Baker, D. and Peylin, P. and Houghton, R. A. and Birdsey, R. A. and Heath, L. and Sundquist, E. T. and Stallard, R. F. and Ciais, P. and Moorcroft, P. and Caspersen, J. P. and Shevliakova, E. and Moore, B. and Kohlmaier, G. and Holland, E. and Gloor, M. and Harmon, M. E. and Fan, S. M. and Sarmiento, J. L. and Goodale, C. L. and Schimel, D. and Field, C. B.},
date = {2001},
journaltitle = {Science},
volume = {292},
pages = {2316--2320},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.1057320},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1057320},
abstract = {For the period 1980-89, we estimate a carbon sink in the coterminous United States between 0.30 and 0.58 petagrams of carbon per year (petagrams of carbon = 1015 grams of carbon). The net carbon flux from the atmosphere to the land was higher, 0.37 to 0.71 petagrams of carbon per year, because a net flux of 0.07 to 0.13 petagrams of carbon per year was exported by rivers and commerce and returned to the atmosphere elsewhere. These land-based estimates are larger than those from previous studies (0.08 to 0.35 petagrams of carbon per year) because of the inclusion of additional processes and revised estimates of some component fluxes. Although component estimates are uncertain, about one-half of the total is outside the forest sector. We also estimated the sink using atmospheric models and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (the tracer-transport inversion method). The range of results from the atmosphere-based inversions contains the land-based estimates. Atmosphere- and land-based estimates are thus consistent, within the large ranges of uncertainty for both methods. Atmosphere-based results for 1980-89 are similar to those for 1985-89 and 1990-94, indicating a relatively stable U.S. sink throughout the period.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007180,carbon-cycle,forest-resources,uncertainty,united-states},
number = {5525}
}Some Pitfalls of an Overemphasis on Science in Environmental Risk Management Decisions. Gregory, R., Failing, L., Ohlson, D., & Mcdaniels, T. L. 9(7):717–735.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex This paper addresses the question whether calls for "more" and "better" science will have the intended effect of improving the quality of decisions about environmental risks. There are reasons to be skeptical: key judgment tasks that fundamentally shape many aspects of decisions about environmental risk management lie outside the domain of science. These tasks include making value judgments explicit, integrating facts and values to create innovative alternatives, and constructively addressing conflicts about uncertainty. To bring new specificity to an old debate, we highlight six pitfalls in environmental risk decisions that can occur as the result of an overemphasis on science as the basis for management choices.
@article{gregoryPitfallsOveremphasisScience2006,
title = {Some Pitfalls of an Overemphasis on Science in Environmental Risk Management Decisions},
author = {Gregory, Robin and Failing, Lee and Ohlson, Dan and Mcdaniels, Timothy L.},
date = {2006-10},
journaltitle = {Journal of Risk Research},
volume = {9},
pages = {717--735},
doi = {10.1080/13669870600799895},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870600799895},
abstract = {This paper addresses the question whether calls for "more" and "better" science will have the intended effect of improving the quality of decisions about environmental risks. There are reasons to be skeptical: key judgment tasks that fundamentally shape many aspects of decisions about environmental risk management lie outside the domain of science. These tasks include making value judgments explicit, integrating facts and values to create innovative alternatives, and constructively addressing conflicts about uncertainty. To bring new specificity to an old debate, we highlight six pitfalls in environmental risk decisions that can occur as the result of an overemphasis on science as the basis for management choices.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11695072,communicating-uncertainty,risk-assessment,science-based-decision-making,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication,technocracy,uncertainty},
number = {7}
}Improving Generalized Regression Analysis for the Spatial Prediction of Forest Communities. Maggini, R., Lehmann, A., Zimmermann, N. E., & Guisan, A. 33(10):1729–1749.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Aim This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.
@article{magginiImprovingGeneralizedRegression2006,
title = {Improving Generalized Regression Analysis for the Spatial Prediction of Forest Communities},
author = {Maggini, Ramona and Lehmann, Anthony and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Guisan, Antoine},
date = {2006-10},
journaltitle = {Journal of Biogeography},
volume = {33},
pages = {1729--1749},
issn = {0305-0270},
doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01465.x},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/835166},
abstract = {Aim\hspace{0.6em} This study used data from temperate forest communities to assess: (1) five different stepwise selection methods with generalized additive models, (2) the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5, (3) the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences, (4) four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation, and (5) the effect of integrating an interaction factor defined by a regression tree on the residuals of an initial environmental model. Location\hspace{0.6em} State of Vaud, western Switzerland. Methods\hspace{0.6em} Generalized additive models (GAMs) were fitted using the grasp package (generalized regression analysis and spatial predictions, http://www.cscf.ch/grasp). Results\hspace{0.6em} Model selection based on cross-validation appeared to be the best compromise between model stability and performance (parsimony) among the five methods tested. Weighting absences returned models that perform better than models fitted with the original sample prevalence. This appeared to be mainly due to the impact of very low prevalence values on evaluation statistics. Removing zeroes beyond the range of presences on main environmental gradients changed the set of selected predictors, and potentially their response curve shape. Moreover, removing zeroes slightly improved model performance and stability when compared with the baseline model on the same data set. Incorporating a spatial trend predictor improved model performance and stability significantly. Even better models were obtained when including local spatial autocorrelation. A novel approach to include interactions proved to be an efficient way to account for interactions between all predictors at once. Main conclusions\hspace{0.6em} Models and spatial predictions of 18 forest communities were significantly improved by using either: (1) cross-validation as a model selection method, (2) weighted absences, (3) limited absences, (4) predictors accounting for spatial autocorrelation, or (5) a factor variable accounting for interactions between all predictors. The final choice of model strategy should depend on the nature of the available data and the specific study aims. Statistical evaluation is useful in searching for the best modelling practice. However, one should not neglect to consider the shapes and interpretability of response curves, as well as the resulting spatial predictions in the final assessment.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-835166,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,bioclimatic-predictors,correlation-analysis,forest-resources,habitat-suitability,statistics,uncertainty,weighting},
number = {10}
}Assessing Crown Fire Potential in Coniferous Forests of Western North America: A Critique of Current Approaches and Recent Simulation Studies. Cruz, M. G. & Alexander, M. E. 19(4):377+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex To control and use wildland fires safely and effectively depends on creditable assessments of fire potential, including the propensity for crowning in conifer forests. Simulation studies that use certain fire modelling systems (i.e. NEXUS, FlamMap, FARSITE, FFE-FVS (Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator), Fuel Management Analyst (FMAPlus®), BehavePlus) based on separate implementations or direct integration of Rothermel's surface and crown rate of fire spread models with Van Wagner's crown fire transition and propagation models are shown to have a significant underprediction bias when used in assessing potential crown fire behaviour in conifer forests of western North America. The principal sources of this underprediction bias are shown to include: [::(i)] incompatible model linkages; [::(ii)] use of surface and crown fire rate of spread models that have an inherent underprediction bias; and [::(iii)] reduction in crown fire rate of spread based on the use of unsubstantiated crown fraction burned functions. [::The use of uncalibrated custom fuel models] to represent surface fuelbeds is a fourth potential source of bias. [\n] These sources are described and documented in detail based on comparisons with experimental fire and wildfire observations and on separate analyses of model components. The manner in which the two primary canopy fuel inputs influencing crown fire initiation (i.e. foliar moisture content and canopy base height) is handled in these simulation studies and the meaning of Scott and Reinhardt's two crown fire hazard indices are also critically examined. [Excerpt: Summary and concluding remarks] The ready availability of a multitude of fire modelling systems in the US in recent years has led to their widespread use in numerous simulation studies aimed at assessing various fire behaviour characteristics associated with specific fuel complex structures, including the propensity for crown fire initiation and spread (McHugh 2006). The results of these simulations, often aimed at evaluating fuel treatment effectiveness, are in turn utilised in a whole host of applications (e.g. Scott 2003; Fiedler et al. 2004; Skog et al. 2006; Johnson et al. 2007; Finkral and Evans 2008; Huggett et al. 2008; Johnson 2008; Reinhardt et al. 2010) and thus have significant implications for public and wildland firefighter safety, community fire protection, fire management policy-making, and forest management practices. As Cheney (1981) has noted, 'The reality of fire behaviour predictions is that overestimates can be easily readjusted without serious consequences; underestimates of behaviour can be disastrous both to the operations of the fire controller and the credibility of the person making the predictions'. [\n] A critical review of several of these simulation studies, as documented here, has found that the results are often unrealistic for a variety of reasons. It's recognised that the authors of these studies commonly point out the limitations of the models and modelling systems being used through a customary disclaimer concerning the unknowns regarding crown fire behaviour (e.g. Stephens et al. 2009). Nevertheless, the fact that the fuel treatment evaluation studies referenced here are based on modelling systems that utilised model linkages for gauging potential crown fire behaviour that have not previously undergone any form of performance evaluation against independent datasets or any empirical observations should be of concern. There appears, however, to be an aversion within an element of the fire research community to do so (e.g. Scott and Reinhardt 2001; Scott 2006; Stephens et al. 2009). Nevertheless, such testing is now generally regarded as a basic tenet of modern-day model development and evaluation (Jakeman et al. 2006). [\n] Fire modelling systems like NEXUS (Scott and Reinhardt 2001), FFE-FVS (Reinhardt and Crookston 2003), FARSITE (Finney 2004), FMAPlus (Carlton 2005), FlamMap (Finney 2006), and BehavePlus (Andrews et al. 2008) that are based on separate implementations or linkages between Rothermel's (1972, 1991) rate of fire spread models and Van Wagner's (1977, 1993) crown fire transition and propagation models have been shown to have a marked underprediction bias when used to assess potential crown fire behaviour. What has been allowed to evolve is a family of modelling systems composed of independently developed, linked models that were never intended to work together, are sometimes based on very limited data, and may propagate errors beyond acceptable limits. [\n] We have documented here the sources of the bias based on empirical evidence in the form of published experimental fire and wildfire datasets. By analysing model linkages and components, we have described the primary sources of such bias, namely: (1) incompatible model linkages; (2) use of surface and crown fire rate of spread models that have an inherent underprediction bias; and (3) reduction in crown fire rate of spread based on use of unsubstantiated CFB functions. The use of uncalibrated, custom fuel models to represent surface fuelbeds is considered another potential source of bias. [\n] Our analysis has also shown that the crown fire initiation underprediction bias inherent in all of these fire modelling systems could possibly be rectified by modifying the method used to calculate the surface fireline intensity for the purposes of assessing crown fire initiation potential, namely using Nelson's (2003) model to estimate tr in place of Anderson's model (1969). Other modelling systems exist for predicting the likelihood of crown fire initiation and other aspects of crown fire behaviour (Alexander et al. 2006; Cruz et al. 2006b, 2008). Mitsopoulos and Dimitrakopoulos (2007) have, for example, made extensive use of this suite of models in their assessment of crown fire potential in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) forests in Greece. These systems are based on models that have undergone performance evaluations against independent datasets and been shown to be reasonably reliable (Cruz et al. 2003b, 2004, 2006b; Cronan and Jandt 2008). Resolving the underprediction bias associated with predicting active crown fire rate of spread inherent in the Rothermel (1991) model would require substantial changes, including a reassessment of the use of a CFB function, if not complete replacement with a more robust empirically developed model (Cruz et al. 2005) that has been extensively tested (Alexander and Cruz 2006) or a physically based one that has undergone limited testing (Butler et al. 2004). [\n] Alexander (2007) has emphasised that assessments of wildland fire potential involving simulation modelling must be complemented with fire behaviour case study knowledge and by experienced judgment. This review has revealed an overwhelming need for the research users of fire modelling systems to be grounded in the theory and proper application of such tools, including a solid understanding of the assumptions, limitations and accuracy of the underlying models as well as practical knowledge of the subject phenomena (Brown and Davis 1973; Albini 1976; Alexander 2009a, 2009b).
@article{cruzAssessingCrownFire2010,
title = {Assessing Crown Fire Potential in Coniferous Forests of Western {{North America}}: A Critique of Current Approaches and Recent Simulation Studies},
author = {Cruz, Miguel G. and Alexander, Martin E.},
date = {2010},
journaltitle = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
volume = {19},
pages = {377+},
issn = {1049-8001},
doi = {10.1071/wf08132},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/wf08132},
abstract = {To control and use wildland fires safely and effectively depends on creditable assessments of fire potential, including the propensity for crowning in conifer forests. Simulation studies that use certain fire modelling systems (i.e. NEXUS, FlamMap, FARSITE, FFE-FVS (Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator), Fuel Management Analyst (FMAPlus®), BehavePlus) based on separate implementations or direct integration of Rothermel's surface and crown rate of fire spread models with Van Wagner's crown fire transition and propagation models are shown to have a significant underprediction bias when used in assessing potential crown fire behaviour in conifer forests of western North America. The principal sources of this underprediction bias are shown to include:
[::(i)] incompatible model linkages;
[::(ii)] use of surface and crown fire rate of spread models that have an inherent underprediction bias; and
[::(iii)] reduction in crown fire rate of spread based on the use of unsubstantiated crown fraction burned functions.
[::The use of uncalibrated custom fuel models] to represent surface fuelbeds is a fourth potential source of bias.
[\textbackslash n] These sources are described and documented in detail based on comparisons with experimental fire and wildfire observations and on separate analyses of model components. The manner in which the two primary canopy fuel inputs influencing crown fire initiation (i.e. foliar moisture content and canopy base height) is handled in these simulation studies and the meaning of Scott and Reinhardt's two crown fire hazard indices are also critically examined.
[Excerpt: Summary and concluding remarks]
The ready availability of a multitude of fire modelling systems in the US in recent years has led to their widespread use in numerous simulation studies aimed at assessing various fire behaviour characteristics associated with specific fuel complex structures, including the propensity for crown fire initiation and spread (McHugh 2006). The results of these simulations, often aimed at evaluating fuel treatment effectiveness, are in turn utilised in a whole host of applications (e.g. Scott 2003; Fiedler et al. 2004; Skog et al. 2006; Johnson et al. 2007; Finkral and Evans 2008; Huggett et al. 2008; Johnson 2008; Reinhardt et al. 2010) and thus have significant implications for public and wildland firefighter safety, community fire protection, fire management policy-making, and forest management practices. As Cheney (1981) has noted, 'The reality of fire behaviour predictions is that overestimates can be easily readjusted without serious consequences; underestimates of behaviour can be disastrous both to the operations of the fire controller and the credibility of the person making the predictions'.
[\textbackslash n] A critical review of several of these simulation studies, as documented here, has found that the results are often unrealistic for a variety of reasons. It's recognised that the authors of these studies commonly point out the limitations of the models and modelling systems being used through a customary disclaimer concerning the unknowns regarding crown fire behaviour (e.g. Stephens et al. 2009). Nevertheless, the fact that the fuel treatment evaluation studies referenced here are based on modelling systems that utilised model linkages for gauging potential crown fire behaviour that have not previously undergone any form of performance evaluation against independent datasets or any empirical observations should be of concern. There appears, however, to be an aversion within an element of the fire research community to do so (e.g. Scott and Reinhardt 2001; Scott 2006; Stephens et al. 2009). Nevertheless, such testing is now generally regarded as a basic tenet of modern-day model development and evaluation (Jakeman et al. 2006).
[\textbackslash n] Fire modelling systems like NEXUS (Scott and Reinhardt 2001), FFE-FVS (Reinhardt and Crookston 2003), FARSITE (Finney 2004), FMAPlus (Carlton 2005), FlamMap (Finney 2006), and BehavePlus (Andrews et al. 2008) that are based on separate implementations or linkages between Rothermel's (1972, 1991) rate of fire spread models and Van Wagner's (1977, 1993) crown fire transition and propagation models have been shown to have a marked underprediction bias when used to assess potential crown fire behaviour. What has been allowed to evolve is a family of modelling systems composed of independently developed, linked models that were never intended to work together, are sometimes based on very limited data, and may propagate errors beyond acceptable limits.
[\textbackslash n] We have documented here the sources of the bias based on empirical evidence in the form of published experimental fire and wildfire datasets. By analysing model linkages and components, we have described the primary sources of such bias, namely: (1) incompatible model linkages; (2) use of surface and crown fire rate of spread models that have an inherent underprediction bias; and (3) reduction in crown fire rate of spread based on use of unsubstantiated CFB functions. The use of uncalibrated, custom fuel models to represent surface fuelbeds is considered another potential source of bias.
[\textbackslash n] Our analysis has also shown that the crown fire initiation underprediction bias inherent in all of these fire modelling systems could possibly be rectified by modifying the method used to calculate the surface fireline intensity for the purposes of assessing crown fire initiation potential, namely using Nelson's (2003) model to estimate tr in place of Anderson's model (1969). Other modelling systems exist for predicting the likelihood of crown fire initiation and other aspects of crown fire behaviour (Alexander et al. 2006; Cruz et al. 2006b, 2008). Mitsopoulos and Dimitrakopoulos (2007) have, for example, made extensive use of this suite of models in their assessment of crown fire potential in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) forests in Greece. These systems are based on models that have undergone performance evaluations against independent datasets and been shown to be reasonably reliable (Cruz et al. 2003b, 2004, 2006b; Cronan and Jandt 2008). Resolving the underprediction bias associated with predicting active crown fire rate of spread inherent in the Rothermel (1991) model would require substantial changes, including a reassessment of the use of a CFB function, if not complete replacement with a more robust empirically developed model (Cruz et al. 2005) that has been extensively tested (Alexander and Cruz 2006) or a physically based one that has undergone limited testing (Butler et al. 2004).
[\textbackslash n] Alexander (2007) has emphasised that assessments of wildland fire potential involving simulation modelling must be complemented with fire behaviour case study knowledge and by experienced judgment. This review has revealed an overwhelming need for the research users of fire modelling systems to be grounded in the theory and proper application of such tools, including a solid understanding of the assumptions, limitations and accuracy of the underlying models as well as practical knowledge of the subject phenomena (Brown and Davis 1973; Albini 1976; Alexander 2009a, 2009b).},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13706015,~to-add-doi-URL,canada,comparison,conifers,model-comparison,modelling-uncertainty,prediction-bias,rothermel,simulation,software-uncertainty,uncertainty,united-states,wildfires},
number = {4}
}HISDAC-US, Historical Settlement Data Compilation for the Conterminous United States over 200 Years. Leyk, S. & Uhl, J. H. 5:180175+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Human settlement plays a key role in understanding social processes such as urbanization and interactions between human and environmental systems but not much is known about the landscape evolution before the era of operational remote sensing technology. In this study, housing and property databases are used to create new gridded settlement layers describing human settlement processes at fine spatial and temporal resolution in the conterminous United States between 1810 and 2015. The main products are a raster composite layer representing the year of first settlement, and a raster time series of built-up intensity representing the sum of building areas in a pixel. Several accompanying uncertainty surfaces are provided to ensure the user is informed about inherent spatial, temporal and thematic uncertainty in the data. A validation study using high quality reference data confirms high levels of accuracy of the resulting data products. These settlement data will be of great interest in disciplines in which the long-term evolution of human settlement represents crucial information to explore novel research questions.
@article{leykHISDACUSHistoricalSettlement2018,
title = {{{HISDAC}}-{{US}}, Historical Settlement Data Compilation for the Conterminous {{United States}} over 200 Years},
author = {Leyk, Stefan and Uhl, Johannes H.},
date = {2018-09},
journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
volume = {5},
pages = {180175+},
issn = {2052-4463},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2018.175},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.175},
abstract = {Human settlement plays a key role in understanding social processes such as urbanization and interactions between human and environmental systems but not much is known about the landscape evolution before the era of operational remote sensing technology. In this study, housing and property databases are used to create new gridded settlement layers describing human settlement processes at fine spatial and temporal resolution in the conterminous United States between 1810 and 2015. The main products are a raster composite layer representing the year of first settlement, and a raster time series of built-up intensity representing the sum of building areas in a pixel. Several accompanying uncertainty surfaces are provided to ensure the user is informed about inherent spatial, temporal and thematic uncertainty in the data. A validation study using high quality reference data confirms high levels of accuracy of the resulting data products. These settlement data will be of great interest in disciplines in which the long-term evolution of human settlement represents crucial information to explore novel research questions.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14633453,~to-add-doi-URL,data-integration,historical-perspective,human-settlement,integrated-modelling,integration-techniques,open-data,time-series,uncertainty,united-states}
}ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science. McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., & Glantz, M. H. 314(5806):1740–1745.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
@article{mcphadenENSOIntegratingConcept2006,
title = {{{ENSO}} as an Integrating Concept in {{Earth}} Science},
author = {McPhaden, Michael J. and Zebiak, Stephen E. and Glantz, Michael H.},
date = {2006},
journaltitle = {Science},
volume = {314},
pages = {1740--1745},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.1132588},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132588},
abstract = {The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007188,climate,education,el-nino,enso,uncertainty},
number = {5806}
}Italian Scientists Vilified in Wake of Olive-Tree Deaths. Abbott, A.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Excerpt] [...] plant scientists at various institutes in Bari, the capital of the Puglia region, [southern Italy, ...] have been subject to a police investigation about whether they are responsible for the introduction of the bacterium, Xylella fastidiosa, into Puglia, or for allowing its subsequent spread. Police have called in several researchers involved in Xylella research for questioning and confiscated computers and documents from scientific institutes. ” We'd just like to be left to do our work without this suspicion and this stress,” says Donato Boscia, head of the Bari unit of the CNR Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection (IPSP), whom police questioned in April. [...] Xylella is endemic in parts of the Americas, including Costa Rica, Brazil and California, but was not previously found in Europe. That changed in October 2013, when scientists at the IPSP and the University of Bari identified the bacterium as the cause of an unusual disease outbreak in olive trees. The outbreak immediately became subject to European Union (EU) regulations to limit its spread, and regional scientists began a systematic effort to understand the disease and contain it: the scientists went on to show that the bacterium was being carried by the spittlebug insect. [::Ornamental plants] From the start, farmers and environmentalists in Italy objected to containment measures, which involved uprooting trees and spraying the groves with pesticides. But trouble for the Puglian scientists began in April 2014, when individuals told police that they suspected that the epidemic was caused by bacteria that scientists had brought in from California for a European training course on Xylella at the Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari (IAMB) in 2010. [\n] Scientists say that this suggestion is ludicrous because the Puglia strain is different from the strains used at the workshop; the widely accepted theory is that the infection was imported with ornamental plants from Costa Rica, where the endemic Xylella strain matches the Puglia strain. [\n] However, the complaints spawned a much broader investigation by public prosecutors, including what role scientists may have had in the epidemic. [...] The prosecutors declined Nature's request for comment. But in March, one of them [...] implied in an interview [...] that they are looking into theories that the bacterium may have been deliberately introduced into the area, or became entrenched because agricultural scientists failed to monitor the region properly, either deliberately or through neglect. [...The prosecutor expressed concern] about the possible corrupting influence of businesses, such as solar-energy companies, which might stand to gain from the clearing of olive groves. [...] [\n] Puglian scientists have had to contend with public criticism too. Several popular blogs devoted to the Xylella emergency have cast doubt on scientists' ways of working and their results – saying, for example, that a remedy exists but is being suppressed [... and] that Xylella had not been proved to be the source of the outbreak and that the deaths were instead due to a fungus that could be eliminated without destroying trees. An expert panel of the European Food Safety Authority debunked these suggestions in a report published in April. [...] [\n] On 27 May, the regional government announced a €2-million (US\$2.2-million) fund for projects that might aid the diagnosis, epidemiology and monitoring of the bacterium. It said that a 'containment area' in the province of Lecce – where the bacterium is now endemic, making complete eradication impossible – will be used as an open-air Xylella laboratory. National and European research agencies have also promised money, says Boscia. ” The outdoor laboratory would be perfect for all of us – and also allow critics to put their own theories to the test.”
@article{abbottItalianScientistsVilified2015,
title = {Italian Scientists Vilified in Wake of Olive-Tree Deaths},
author = {Abbott, Alison},
date = {2015-06},
journaltitle = {Nature},
issn = {1476-4687},
doi = {10.1038/nature.2015.17651},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2015.17651},
abstract = {[Excerpt] [...] plant scientists at various institutes in Bari, the capital of the Puglia region, [southern Italy, ...] have been subject to a police investigation about whether they are responsible for the introduction of the bacterium, Xylella fastidiosa, into Puglia, or for allowing its subsequent spread. Police have called in several researchers involved in Xylella research for questioning and confiscated computers and documents from scientific institutes. ” We'd just like to be left to do our work without this suspicion and this stress,” says Donato Boscia, head of the Bari unit of the CNR Institute for Sustainable Plant Protection (IPSP), whom police questioned in April. [...]
Xylella is endemic in parts of the Americas, including Costa Rica, Brazil and California, but was not previously found in Europe. That changed in October 2013, when scientists at the IPSP and the University of Bari identified the bacterium as the cause of an unusual disease outbreak in olive trees. The outbreak immediately became subject to European Union (EU) regulations to limit its spread, and regional scientists began a systematic effort to understand the disease and contain it: the scientists went on to show that the bacterium was being carried by the spittlebug insect.
[::Ornamental plants]
From the start, farmers and environmentalists in Italy objected to containment measures, which involved uprooting trees and spraying the groves with pesticides. But trouble for the Puglian scientists began in April 2014, when individuals told police that they suspected that the epidemic was caused by bacteria that scientists had brought in from California for a European training course on Xylella at the Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari (IAMB) in 2010.
[\textbackslash n] Scientists say that this suggestion is ludicrous because the Puglia strain is different from the strains used at the workshop; the widely accepted theory is that the infection was imported with ornamental plants from Costa Rica, where the endemic Xylella strain matches the Puglia strain.
[\textbackslash n] However, the complaints spawned a much broader investigation by public prosecutors, including what role scientists may have had in the epidemic. [...] The prosecutors declined Nature's request for comment. But in March, one of them [...] implied in an interview [...] that they are looking into theories that the bacterium may have been deliberately introduced into the area, or became entrenched because agricultural scientists failed to monitor the region properly, either deliberately or through neglect. [...The prosecutor expressed concern] about the possible corrupting influence of businesses, such as solar-energy companies, which might stand to gain from the clearing of olive groves. [...]
[\textbackslash n] Puglian scientists have had to contend with public criticism too. Several popular blogs devoted to the Xylella emergency have cast doubt on scientists' ways of working and their results -- saying, for example, that a remedy exists but is being suppressed [... and] that Xylella had not been proved to be the source of the outbreak and that the deaths were instead due to a fungus that could be eliminated without destroying trees. An expert panel of the European Food Safety Authority debunked these suggestions in a report published in April. [...]
[\textbackslash n] On 27 May, the regional government announced a €2-million (US\$2.2-million) fund for projects that might aid the diagnosis, epidemiology and monitoring of the bacterium. It said that a 'containment area' in the province of Lecce -- where the bacterium is now endemic, making complete eradication impossible -- will be used as an open-air Xylella laboratory. National and European research agencies have also promised money, says Boscia. ” The outdoor laboratory would be perfect for all of us -- and also allow critics to put their own theories to the test.”},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13636189,~to-add-doi-URL,agricultural-resources,complexity,disturbances,forest-resources,multi-stakeholder-decision-making,olea-europaea,plant-pests,science-based-decision-making,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface,scientific-communication,solar-energy,uncertainty,xylella-fastidiosa}
}The Limits of Cost/Benefit Analysis When Disasters Loom. Rose-Ackerman, S. 7:56–66.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Abstract] Advances in estimating the costs and benefits of climate change policies are a welcome development, but a full-scale cost/benefit analysis that seeks to reduce complex value trade-offs to a single metric of net benefit maximization hides many important public policy issues, especially for disasters and catastrophes that are large, discontinuous, irreversible and uncertain. States should obtain public input on such policies. These policies involve value trade-offs that can be informed by technocratic estimates of costs, benefits and risk. However, such analyses cannot, in principle, be reduced to a single recommendation that 'maximizes net benefits'. Politicians must make value trade-offs informed both by technocrats and by public input. [Policy Implications] [::] Policies that seek to limit the risks of potential disasters and catastrophes - that are large, discontinuous, irreversible, and far in the future - should be informed by technocratic estimates of costs, benefits and risk. [::] However, such analyses cannot, in principle, be reduced to a single recommendation that 'maximizes net benefits'. The applied utilitarianism of cost/benefit cannot resolve such problems. [::] Policy makers should obtain public input as they make the necessary value trade-offs. [::] Once the basic policy choice has been made, the next step is a detailed allocation of costs. Those decisions involve an interplay of technical details with choices about the distribution of costs between general taxpayers, producers and users of a service (e.g. electric power), citizens affected directly by the policy in their homes and businesses and other competing values (e.g., preservation of natural areas). Such choices are not limited to policies that concern disasters; they are pervasive in all public policy choice, but they too cannot be reduced to the logic of cost/benefit analysis (CBA) which treats all benefits and costs equally. [::] CBA is a valuable tool in many contexts, but its limits are particularly obvious in the case of policies that seek to prevent disasters and catastrophes. [Excerpt: Conclusions] States should obtain public input on policies that seek to limit the risks of disasters and catastrophes - some far in the future, others of low probability. Such policies involve value trade-offs that can be informed by technocratic estimates of costs, benefits and risk. However, such analyses cannot, in principle, be reduced to a single recommendation that 'maximizes net benefits'. The applied utilitarianism of cost/benefit cannot resolve such problems; politicians must make value trade-off informed both by technocrats and by public input. Once the basic policy decision has been made, choices that involve the detailed allocation of costs are on a different plane. They involve the interplay of technical details and the way costs are distributed between general taxpayers, producers and users of a service (e.g., electric power), citizens affected directly by the policy in their homes and businesses, other competing values (e.g., preservation of natural areas). Advances in estimating the costs and benefits of climate change policies are a welcome development, but a full-scale cost/benefit CBA that seeks to reduce complex value trade-offs to a single metric of net benefit maximization hides many important public policy issues, especially for disasters and catastrophes that are large, discontinuous, irreversible and uncertain. [...]
@article{rose-ackermanLimitsCostBenefit2016,
title = {The Limits of Cost/Benefit Analysis When Disasters Loom},
author = {Rose-Ackerman, Susan},
date = {2016-05},
journaltitle = {Global Policy},
volume = {7},
pages = {56--66},
issn = {1758-5880},
doi = {10.1111/1758-5899.12279},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12279},
abstract = {[Abstract]
Advances in estimating the costs and benefits of climate change policies are a welcome development, but a full-scale cost/benefit analysis that seeks to reduce complex value trade-offs to a single metric of net benefit maximization hides many important public policy issues, especially for disasters and catastrophes that are large, discontinuous, irreversible and uncertain. States should obtain public input on such policies. These policies involve value trade-offs that can be informed by technocratic estimates of costs, benefits and risk. However, such analyses cannot, in principle, be reduced to a single recommendation that 'maximizes net benefits'. Politicians must make value trade-offs informed both by technocrats and by public input.
[Policy Implications]
[::] Policies that seek to limit the risks of potential disasters and catastrophes - that are large, discontinuous, irreversible, and far in the future - should be informed by technocratic estimates of costs, benefits and risk.
[::] However, such analyses cannot, in principle, be reduced to a single recommendation that 'maximizes net benefits'. The applied utilitarianism of cost/benefit cannot resolve such problems.
[::] Policy makers should obtain public input as they make the necessary value trade-offs.
[::] Once the basic policy choice has been made, the next step is a detailed allocation of costs. Those decisions involve an interplay of technical details with choices about the distribution of costs between general taxpayers, producers and users of a service (e.g. electric power), citizens affected directly by the policy in their homes and businesses and other competing values (e.g., preservation of natural areas). Such choices are not limited to policies that concern disasters; they are pervasive in all public policy choice, but they too cannot be reduced to the logic of cost/benefit analysis (CBA) which treats all benefits and costs equally.
[::] CBA is a valuable tool in many contexts, but its limits are particularly obvious in the case of policies that seek to prevent disasters and catastrophes.
[Excerpt: Conclusions]
States should obtain public input on policies that seek to limit the risks of disasters and catastrophes - some far in the future, others of low probability. Such policies involve value trade-offs that can be informed by technocratic estimates of costs, benefits and risk. However, such analyses cannot, in principle, be reduced to a single recommendation that 'maximizes net benefits'. The applied utilitarianism of cost/benefit cannot resolve such problems; politicians must make value trade-off informed both by technocrats and by public input. Once the basic policy decision has been made, choices that involve the detailed allocation of costs are on a different plane. They involve the interplay of technical details and the way costs are distributed between general taxpayers, producers and users of a service (e.g., electric power), citizens affected directly by the policy in their homes and businesses, other competing values (e.g., preservation of natural areas). Advances in estimating the costs and benefits of climate change policies are a welcome development, but a full-scale cost/benefit CBA that seeks to reduce complex value trade-offs to a single metric of net benefit maximization hides many important public policy issues, especially for disasters and catastrophes that are large, discontinuous, irreversible and uncertain. [...]},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14534852,cognitive-biases,communicating-uncertainty,controversial-monetarisation,cost-benefit-analysis,disasters,ethics,natural-disasters,review,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface,scientific-communication,technocracy,trade-offs,uncertainty,unknown,values-vs-scientific-evidence}
}Soil Erosion Assessment - Mind the Gap. Kim, J., Ivanov, V. Y., & Fatichi, S. 43(24):2016GL071480+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Accurate assessment of erosion rates remains an elusive problem because soil loss is strongly nonunique with respect to the main drivers. In addressing the mechanistic causes of erosion responses, we discriminate between macroscale effects of external factors – long studied and referred to as ” geomorphic external variability”, and microscale effects, introduced as ” geomorphic internal variability.” The latter source of erosion variations represents the knowledge gap, an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response, significantly impacting the low predictability skill of deterministic models at field-catchment scales. This is corroborated with experiments using a comprehensive physical model that dynamically updates the soil mass and particle composition. As complete knowledge of microscale conditions for arbitrary location and time is infeasible, we propose that new predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components in deterministic assessments of external and internal types of geomorphic variability.
@article{kimSoilErosionAssessment2016,
title = {Soil Erosion Assessment - {{Mind}} the Gap},
author = {Kim, Jongho and Ivanov, Valeriy Y. and Fatichi, Simone},
date = {2016-12},
journaltitle = {Geophys. Res. Lett.},
volume = {43},
pages = {2016GL071480+},
issn = {0094-8276},
doi = {10.1002/2016gl071480},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14257841},
abstract = {Accurate assessment of erosion rates remains an elusive problem because soil loss is strongly nonunique with respect to the main drivers. In addressing the mechanistic causes of erosion responses, we discriminate between macroscale effects of external factors -- long studied and referred to as ” geomorphic external variability”, and microscale effects, introduced as ” geomorphic internal variability.” The latter source of erosion variations represents the knowledge gap, an overlooked but vital element of geomorphic response, significantly impacting the low predictability skill of deterministic models at field-catchment scales. This is corroborated with experiments using a comprehensive physical model that dynamically updates the soil mass and particle composition. As complete knowledge of microscale conditions for arbitrary location and time is infeasible, we propose that new predictive frameworks of soil erosion should embed stochastic components in deterministic assessments of external and internal types of geomorphic variability.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257841,~to-add-doi-URL,erodibility,local-scale,modelling-uncertainty,soil-erosion,soil-resources,uncertainty},
number = {24}
}Handling uncertainty in bioenergy policy design – A case study analysis of UK and German bioelectricity policy instruments. Purkus, A., Röder, M., Gawel, E., Thrän, D., & Thornley, P. Biomass and Bioenergy.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex In designing policies to promote bioenergy, policy makers face challenges concerning uncertainties about the sustainability of bioenergy pathways (including greenhouse gas balances), technology and resource costs, or future energy market framework conditions. New information becomes available with time, but policy adjustments can involve high levels of adaptation costs. To enable an effective steering of technology choices and innovation, policies have to strike a balance between creating a consistent institutional framework, which establishes planning security for investors, and sufficient flexibility to adapt to new information. This paper examines implications of economic theory for handling cost and benefit uncertainty in bioelectricity policy design, focussing on choices between price and quantity instruments, technology differentiation, and policy adjustment. Findings are applied to two case studies, the UK's Renewables Obligation and the German feed-in tariff/feed-in premium scheme. Case study results show the trade-offs that are involved in instrument choice and design – depending on political priorities and a country's specific context, different options can prove more adequate. Combining market-based remuneration with sustainability criteria results in strong incentives for bioenergy producers to search for low-cost solutions; whereas cost-based price instruments with centrally steered technology and feedstock choices offer higher planning security for investors and more direct control for policy makers over what pathways are implemented. Independent of the choice of instrument type and technology differentiation mechanism, findings emphasise the importance of a careful policy design, which determines the exact balance between performance criteria such as cost control, incentive intensity, planning security and adaptive efficiency.
@article{purkus_handling_????,
title = {Handling uncertainty in bioenergy policy design – {A} case study analysis of {UK} and {German} bioelectricity policy instruments},
issn = {0961-9534},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0961953415001154},
doi = {10.1016/j.biombioe.2015.03.029},
abstract = {In designing policies to promote bioenergy, policy makers face challenges concerning uncertainties about the sustainability of bioenergy pathways (including greenhouse gas balances), technology and resource costs, or future energy market framework conditions. New information becomes available with time, but policy adjustments can involve high levels of adaptation costs. To enable an effective steering of technology choices and innovation, policies have to strike a balance between creating a consistent institutional framework, which establishes planning security for investors, and sufficient flexibility to adapt to new information. This paper examines implications of economic theory for handling cost and benefit uncertainty in bioelectricity policy design, focussing on choices between price and quantity instruments, technology differentiation, and policy adjustment. Findings are applied to two case studies, the UK's Renewables Obligation and the German feed-in tariff/feed-in premium scheme. Case study results show the trade-offs that are involved in instrument choice and design – depending on political priorities and a country's specific context, different options can prove more adequate. Combining market-based remuneration with sustainability criteria results in strong incentives for bioenergy producers to search for low-cost solutions; whereas cost-based price instruments with centrally steered technology and feedstock choices offer higher planning security for investors and more direct control for policy makers over what pathways are implemented. Independent of the choice of instrument type and technology differentiation mechanism, findings emphasise the importance of a careful policy design, which determines the exact balance between performance criteria such as cost control, incentive intensity, planning security and adaptive efficiency.},
urldate = {2015-04-18},
journal = {Biomass and Bioenergy},
author = {Purkus, Alexandra and Röder, Mirjam and Gawel, Erik and Thrän, Daniela and Thornley, Patricia},
keywords = {Bioenergy policy, Electricity sector, Instruments, New institutional economics, Renewable energy policy, uncertainty},
file = {ScienceDirect Full Text PDF:files/51189/Purkus et al. - Handling uncertainty in bioenergy policy design – .pdf:application/pdf;ScienceDirect Snapshot:files/51190/S0961953415001154.html:text/html}
}The Boundary Effect: Perceived Post Hoc Accuracy of Prediction Intervals. Teigen, K. H., Løhre, E., & Hohle, S. M. 13(4):309–321.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Predictions of magnitudes (costs, durations, environmental events) are often given as uncertainty intervals (ranges). When are such forecasts judged to be correct? We report results of four experiments showing that forecasted ranges of expected natural events (floods and volcanic eruptions) are perceived as accurate when an observed magnitude falls inside or at the boundary of the range, with little regard to its position relative to the ” most likely” (central) estimate. All outcomes that fell inside a wide interval were perceived as equally well captured by the forecast, whereas identical outcomes falling outside a narrow range were deemed to be incorrectly predicted, in proportion to the magnitude of deviation. In these studies, ranges function as categories, with boundaries distinguishing between right or wrong predictions, even for outcome distributions that are acknowledged as continuous, and for boundaries that are arbitrarily defined (for instance, when the narrow prediction interval is defined as capturing 50 percent and the wide 90 percent of all potential outcomes). However, the boundary effect is affected by label. When the upper limit of a range is described as a value that ” can” occur (Experiment 5), outcomes both below and beyond this value were regarded as consistent with the forecast.
@article{teigenBoundaryEffectPerceived2018,
title = {The Boundary Effect: Perceived Post Hoc Accuracy of Prediction Intervals},
author = {Teigen, Karl H. and Løhre, Erik and Hohle, Sigrid M.},
date = {2018-07},
journaltitle = {Judgment and Decision Making},
volume = {13},
pages = {309--321},
issn = {1930-2975},
url = {http://journal.sjdm.org/17/171211/jdm171211.pdf},
abstract = {Predictions of magnitudes (costs, durations, environmental events) are often given as uncertainty intervals (ranges). When are such forecasts judged to be correct? We report results of four experiments showing that forecasted ranges of expected natural events (floods and volcanic eruptions) are perceived as accurate when an observed magnitude falls inside or at the boundary of the range, with little regard to its position relative to the ” most likely” (central) estimate. All outcomes that fell inside a wide interval were perceived as equally well captured by the forecast, whereas identical outcomes falling outside a narrow range were deemed to be incorrectly predicted, in proportion to the magnitude of deviation. In these studies, ranges function as categories, with boundaries distinguishing between right or wrong predictions, even for outcome distributions that are acknowledged as continuous, and for boundaries that are arbitrarily defined (for instance, when the narrow prediction interval is defined as capturing 50 percent and the wide 90 percent of all potential outcomes). However, the boundary effect is affected by label. When the upper limit of a range is described as a value that ” can” occur (Experiment 5), outcomes both below and beyond this value were regarded as consistent with the forecast.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14644967,classification-bias,cognitive-biases,communicating-uncertainty,psychology,scientific-communication,uncertainty},
number = {4}
}Geostatistical Simulation and Error Propagation in Geomorphometry. Temme, A. J. A. M., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Schoorl, J. M., & Claessens, L. In Hengl, T. & Reuter, H. I., editors, Developments in Soil Science, volume 33, of Geomorphometry, pages 121–140. Elsevier.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex This chapter aims to demonstrate how uncertainty in digital elevation model (DEM) attributes can be quantified using geostatistical methods and to show how the propagation of errors to DEM derived products may be computed. To attribute errors DEMs may have positional errors like a shift along one or both coordinate axes, rotational errors, scaling errors, projection errors, or a combination of these. In this chapter, only attribute errors are considered. It describe how propagation of attribute errors in spatial modeling can be computed using the Monte-Carlo method. This method is the most often used error propagation method because it is generic, flexible, and intuitively appealing. In order of increasing complexity, the chapter considers the propagation of error from DEMs to three derivatives, namely slope (a local land-surface parameter), topographic wetness index (a regional land-surface parameter), and soil redistribution resulting from water erosion (a complex model). It also describes the uncertainty propagation analysis in detail.
@incollection{temmeGeostatisticalSimulationError2009,
title = {Geostatistical Simulation and Error Propagation in Geomorphometry},
booktitle = {Developments in {{Soil Science}}},
author = {Temme, A. J. A. M. and Heuvelink, G. B. M. and Schoorl, J. M. and Claessens, L.},
editor = {Hengl, Tomislav and Reuter, Hannes I.},
date = {2009-01-01},
volume = {33},
pages = {121--140},
publisher = {{Elsevier}},
doi = {10.1016/S0166-2481(08)00005-6},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-2481(08)00005-6},
urldate = {2019-11-08},
abstract = {This chapter aims to demonstrate how uncertainty in digital elevation model (DEM) attributes can be quantified using geostatistical methods and to show how the propagation of errors to DEM derived products may be computed. To attribute errors DEMs may have positional errors like a shift along one or both coordinate axes, rotational errors, scaling errors, projection errors, or a combination of these. In this chapter, only attribute errors are considered. It describe how propagation of attribute errors in spatial modeling can be computed using the Monte-Carlo method. This method is the most often used error propagation method because it is generic, flexible, and intuitively appealing. In order of increasing complexity, the chapter considers the propagation of error from DEMs to three derivatives, namely slope (a local land-surface parameter), topographic wetness index (a regional land-surface parameter), and soil redistribution resulting from water erosion (a complex model). It also describes the uncertainty propagation analysis in detail.},
keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-BGZ4NZY6,elevation,monte-carlo,randomised-ensemble-uncertainty,slope,soil-erosion,soil-resources,topographic-wetness-index,uncertainty,uncertainty-propagation},
langid = {english},
series = {Geomorphometry}
}Quantifying the Effects of Wildfire on Changes in Soil Properties by Surface Burning of Soils from the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory. Wieting, C., Ebel, B. A., & Singha, K. 13:43–57.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] Lab experiments on wildfire impacts were conducted using intact soil cores collected in the field. [::] Fire severity was simulated using a heating gun directed at the soil surface. [::] Fire severity impacted total organic carbon, field-saturated hydraulic conductivity, and water-drop penetration times. [::] Fires did not impact bulk density or core water storage. [::] Reductions in surface soil water repellency in high severity fires may increase infiltration relative to low severity fire. [Abstract] [::Study region] This study used intact soil cores collected at the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory near Boulder, Colorado, USA to explore fire impacts on soil properties. [::Study focus] Three soil scenarios were considered: unburned control soils, and low- and high-temperature burned soils. We explored simulated fire impacts on field-saturated hydraulic conductivity, dry bulk density, total organic carbon, and infiltration processes during rainfall simulations. [::New hydrological insights for the region] Soils burned to high temperatures became more homogeneous with depth with respect to total organic carbon and bulk density, suggesting reductions in near-surface porosity. Organic matter decreased significantly with increasing soil temperature. Tension infiltration experiments suggested a decrease in infiltration rates from unburned to low-temperature burned soils, and an increase in infiltration rates in high-temperature burned soils. Non-parametric statistical tests showed that field-saturated hydraulic conductivity similarly decreased from unburned to low-temperature burned soils, and then increased with high-temperature burned soils. We interpret these changes result from the combustion of surface and near-surface organic materials, enabling water to infiltrate directly into soil instead of being stored in the litter and duff layer at the surface. Together, these results indicate that fire-induced changes in soil properties from low temperatures were not as drastic as high temperatures, but that reductions in surface soil water repellency in high temperatures may increase infiltration relative to low temperatures.
@article{wietingQuantifyingEffectsWildfire2017,
title = {Quantifying the Effects of Wildfire on Changes in Soil Properties by Surface Burning of Soils from the {{Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory}}},
author = {Wieting, Celeste and Ebel, Brian A. and Singha, Kamini},
date = {2017-10-01},
journaltitle = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
shortjournal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
volume = {13},
pages = {43--57},
issn = {2214-5818},
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.07.006},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2017.07.006},
urldate = {2019-12-04},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] Lab experiments on wildfire impacts were conducted using intact soil cores collected in the field.
[::] Fire severity was simulated using a heating gun directed at the soil surface.
[::] Fire severity impacted total organic carbon, field-saturated hydraulic conductivity, and water-drop penetration times.
[::] Fires did not impact bulk density or core water storage.
[::] Reductions in surface soil water repellency in high severity fires may increase infiltration relative to low severity fire.
[Abstract]
[::Study region]
This study used intact soil cores collected at the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory near Boulder, Colorado, USA to explore fire impacts on soil properties.
[::Study focus]
Three soil scenarios were considered: unburned control soils, and low- and high-temperature burned soils. We explored simulated fire impacts on field-saturated hydraulic conductivity, dry bulk density, total organic carbon, and infiltration processes during rainfall simulations.
[::New hydrological insights for the region]
Soils burned to high temperatures became more homogeneous with depth with respect to total organic carbon and bulk density, suggesting reductions in near-surface porosity. Organic matter decreased significantly with increasing soil temperature. Tension infiltration experiments suggested a decrease in infiltration rates from unburned to low-temperature burned soils, and an increase in infiltration rates in high-temperature burned soils. Non-parametric statistical tests showed that field-saturated hydraulic conductivity similarly decreased from unburned to low-temperature burned soils, and then increased with high-temperature burned soils. We interpret these changes result from the combustion of surface and near-surface organic materials, enabling water to infiltrate directly into soil instead of being stored in the litter and duff layer at the surface. Together, these results indicate that fire-induced changes in soil properties from low temperatures were not as drastic as high temperatures, but that reductions in surface soil water repellency in high temperatures may increase infiltration relative to low temperatures.},
keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-24NU7ZSB,data-uncertainty,erodibility,fire-severity,modelling-uncertainty,post-fire-impacts,soil-erosion,soil-resources,uncertainty,united-states,wildfires},
langid = {english}
}More Accountability for Big-Data Algorithms. Nature 537(7621):449.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex To avoid bias and improve transparency, algorithm designers must make data sources and profiles public. [Excerpt] [...] Algorithms, from the simplest to the most complex, follow sets of instructions or learn to accomplish a goal. In principle, they could help to make impartial analyses and decisions by reducing human biases and prejudices. But there is growing concern that they risk doing the opposite, and will replicate and exacerbate human failings [...]. And in an era of powerful computers, machine learning and big data, these equations have taken on a life of their own. [Bias in, bias out] [...] There are many sources of bias in algorithms. One is the hard-coding of rules and use of data sets that already reflect common societal spin. Put bias in and get bias out. Spurious or dubious correlations are another pitfall. [...] [] [...] a strong movement for greater 'algorithmic accountability' is now under way in academia and, to their credit, parts of the tech industry such as Google and Microsoft. This has been spurred largely by the increasing pace and adoption of machine learning and other artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques. A sensible step in the direction of greater transparency would be for the designers of algorithms to make public the source of the data sets they use to train and feed them. Disclosure of the design of the algorithms themselves would open these up to scrutiny, but is almost certain to collide with companies' desire to protect their secrets (and prevent gaming). Researchers hope to find ways to audit for bias without revealing the algorithms. [..] As with the use of science metrics in research assessment, a simplistic over-reliance on algorithms is heavily flawed. It's clear that the (vastly more complex) algorithms that help to drive the rest of the world are here to stay. Indeed, ubiquitous and even more sophisticated AI algorithms are already in view. Society needs to discuss in earnest how to rid software and machines of human bugs.
@article{natureMoreAccountabilityBigdata2016,
title = {More Accountability for Big-Data Algorithms},
author = {{Nature}},
date = {2016-09},
journaltitle = {Nature},
volume = {537},
pages = {449},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/537449a},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/537449a},
abstract = {To avoid bias and improve transparency, algorithm designers must make data sources and profiles public.
[Excerpt] [...] Algorithms, from the simplest to the most complex, follow sets of instructions or learn to accomplish a goal. In principle, they could help to make impartial analyses and decisions by reducing human biases and prejudices. But there is growing concern that they risk doing the opposite, and will replicate and exacerbate human failings [...]. And in an era of powerful computers, machine learning and big data, these equations have taken on a life of their own.
[Bias in, bias out]
[...] There are many sources of bias in algorithms. One is the hard-coding of rules and use of data sets that already reflect common societal spin. Put bias in and get bias out. Spurious or dubious correlations are another pitfall. [...]
[] [...] a strong movement for greater 'algorithmic accountability' is now under way in academia and, to their credit, parts of the tech industry such as Google and Microsoft. This has been spurred largely by the increasing pace and adoption of machine learning and other artificial-intelligence (AI) techniques. A sensible step in the direction of greater transparency would be for the designers of algorithms to make public the source of the data sets they use to train and feed them. Disclosure of the design of the algorithms themselves would open these up to scrutiny, but is almost certain to collide with companies' desire to protect their secrets (and prevent gaming). Researchers hope to find ways to audit for bias without revealing the algorithms. [..] As with the use of science metrics in research assessment, a simplistic over-reliance on algorithms is heavily flawed. It's clear that the (vastly more complex) algorithms that help to drive the rest of the world are here to stay. Indeed, ubiquitous and even more sophisticated AI algorithms are already in view. Society needs to discuss in earnest how to rid software and machines of human bugs.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14143609,algorithmic-accountability,big-data,communicating-uncertainty,data-uncertainty,modelling-uncertainty,open-data,open-science,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface,scientific-communication,uncertainty},
number = {7621}
}Electric Sector Capacity Planning under Uncertainty: Climate Policy and Natural Gas in the US. Bistline, J. E. Energy Economics.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex This research investigates the dynamics of capacity planning and dispatch in the US electric power sector under a range of technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties. Using a two-stage stochastic programming approach, model results suggest that the two most critical risks in the near-term planning process of the uncertainties considered here are natural gas prices and the stringency of climate policy. Stochastic strategies indicate that some near-term hedging from lower-cost wind and nuclear may occur but robustly demonstrate that delaying investment and waiting for more information can be optimal to avoid stranding capital-intensive assets. Hedging strategies protect against downside losses while retaining the option value of deferring irreversible commitments until more information is available about potentially lucrative market opportunities. These results are explained in terms of the optionality of investments in the electric power sector, leading to more general insights about uncertainty, learning, and irreversibility. The stochastic solution is especially valuable if decision-makers do not sufficiently account for the potential of climate constraints in future decades or if fuel price projections are outdated.
@article{bistline_electric_????,
title = {Electric {Sector} {Capacity} {Planning} under {Uncertainty}: {Climate} {Policy} and {Natural} {Gas} in the {US}},
issn = {0140-9883},
shorttitle = {Electric {Sector} {Capacity} {Planning} under {Uncertainty}},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988315002157},
doi = {10.1016/j.eneco.2015.07.008},
abstract = {This research investigates the dynamics of capacity planning and dispatch in the US electric power sector under a range of technological, economic, and policy-related uncertainties. Using a two-stage stochastic programming approach, model results suggest that the two most critical risks in the near-term planning process of the uncertainties considered here are natural gas prices and the stringency of climate policy. Stochastic strategies indicate that some near-term hedging from lower-cost wind and nuclear may occur but robustly demonstrate that delaying investment and waiting for more information can be optimal to avoid stranding capital-intensive assets. Hedging strategies protect against downside losses while retaining the option value of deferring irreversible commitments until more information is available about potentially lucrative market opportunities. These results are explained in terms of the optionality of investments in the electric power sector, leading to more general insights about uncertainty, learning, and irreversibility. The stochastic solution is especially valuable if decision-makers do not sufficiently account for the potential of climate constraints in future decades or if fuel price projections are outdated.},
urldate = {2015-07-31},
journal = {Energy Economics},
author = {Bistline, John E.},
keywords = {climate policy, Electricity, risk management, stochastic programming, uncertainty}
}Are More Complex Physiological Models of Forest Ecosystems Better Choices for Plot and Regional Predictions?. Jin, W., He, H. S., & Thompson, F. R. 75:1–14.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] We evaluated performance of process-based forest ecosystem models. [::] A complex physiological model performed best at the plot scale. [::] A hybrid empirical-physiological model performed best at the regional scale. [Abstract] We evaluated performance of process-based forest ecosystem models. A complex physiological model performed best at the plot scale. A hybrid empirical-physiological model performed best at the regional scale. Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models at plot and regional scale in longer timeframe (i.e. decades). We compared model predictions of aboveground carbon by one representative model of each model type (PnET-II, ED2 and LINKAGES v2.2, respectively) with field data (19-77 years) at both scales in the Central Hardwood Forests of the United States. At plot scale, predictions by complex physiological model were the most concordant with field data, suggesting that physiological processes are more influential than forest composition and structure. Hybrid model provided the best predictions at regional scale, suggesting that forest composition and structure may be more influential than physiological processes. [Excerpt: Regional scale comparisons] The percent bias of all models was larger at the regional scale than the plot scale. Abiotic environmental heterogeneity at the regional scale could be one of the factors contributing to the larger percent bias at the regional scale. Even though we used ecological subsections as our regional scale study areas-areas where the vegetation and environmental factors are considered relatively homogenous (McNab et al., 2007), the environmental heterogeneity within each subsection would still be higher than that at each plot-scale site. Small-scale abiotic environmental variations, such as difference in water availability at different slope positions of the same soil type, have been ignored in this regional scale study, and summarized environmental factors were used to represent the average physical situations across the entire subsection. [...] [\n] Predictions based on empirical relationships like those in the hybrid model may not hold true under changing environments in the future, since those relationships were established based on observations in the past (Gustafson, 2013 and Cuddington et al., 2013). However, predictions based on empirical life history attributes might retain validity in the future due to niche conservatism (Crisp et al., 2009 and Wiens et al., 2010). For example, the tolerance range of growing degree days of a given plant species may remain largely constant despite climate change. [\n] None of the models we examined simulate forest landscape processes, which are spatially continuous and temporally dynamic processes (e.g., fire disturbance). Forest landscape processes are likely to have greater contribution to forest ecosystem responses than climate variables alone (Gustafson et al., 2010, Kurz et al., 2008, Girardin and Mudelsee, 2008 and Li et al., 2013). Therefore, greater bias could occur if forest landscape processes are not included in the prediction of forest ecosystem dynamics (Reynolds et al., 2001). [...] [\n] Superiority of complex physiological model at the plot scale was achieved at the price of more detailed input data, longer time of simulation, and more simplified representation of forest composition. While the hybrid model was the best model at the regional scale, it cannot provide carbon dynamics at a fine temporal scale (e.g., daily carbon sequestration) like the complex physiological model can. The simple physiological model provided the worst prediction. Although we primarily focused on density of aboveground woody biomass, other traits associated with forest ecosystems (e.g., forest composition, basal area) are often of interest in ecosystem and landscape modeling. Data preparation and simulation time are also often, if not always, of concern.
@article{jinAreMoreComplex2016,
title = {Are More Complex Physiological Models of Forest Ecosystems Better Choices for Plot and Regional Predictions?},
author = {Jin, Wenchi and He, Hong S. and Thompson, Frank R.},
date = {2016-01},
journaltitle = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
volume = {75},
pages = {1--14},
issn = {1364-8152},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.004},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.004},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] We evaluated performance of process-based forest ecosystem models. [::] A complex physiological model performed best at the plot scale. [::] A hybrid empirical-physiological model performed best at the regional scale.
[Abstract]
We evaluated performance of process-based forest ecosystem models. A complex physiological model performed best at the plot scale. A hybrid empirical-physiological model performed best at the regional scale. Process-based forest ecosystem models vary from simple physiological, complex physiological, to hybrid empirical-physiological models. Previous studies indicate that complex models provide the best prediction at plot scale with a temporal extent of less than 10 years, however, it is largely untested as to whether complex models outperform the other two types of models at plot and regional scale in longer timeframe (i.e. decades). We compared model predictions of aboveground carbon by one representative model of each model type (PnET-II, ED2 and LINKAGES v2.2, respectively) with field data (19-77 years) at both scales in the Central Hardwood Forests of the United States. At plot scale, predictions by complex physiological model were the most concordant with field data, suggesting that physiological processes are more influential than forest composition and structure. Hybrid model provided the best predictions at regional scale, suggesting that forest composition and structure may be more influential than physiological processes.
[Excerpt: Regional scale comparisons]
The percent bias of all models was larger at the regional scale than the plot scale. Abiotic environmental heterogeneity at the regional scale could be one of the factors contributing to the larger percent bias at the regional scale. Even though we used ecological subsections as our regional scale study areas-areas where the vegetation and environmental factors are considered relatively homogenous (McNab et al., 2007), the environmental heterogeneity within each subsection would still be higher than that at each plot-scale site. Small-scale abiotic environmental variations, such as difference in water availability at different slope positions of the same soil type, have been ignored in this regional scale study, and summarized environmental factors were used to represent the average physical situations across the entire subsection. [...]
[\textbackslash n] Predictions based on empirical relationships like those in the hybrid model may not hold true under changing environments in the future, since those relationships were established based on observations in the past (Gustafson, 2013 and Cuddington et al., 2013). However, predictions based on empirical life history attributes might retain validity in the future due to niche conservatism (Crisp et al., 2009 and Wiens et al., 2010). For example, the tolerance range of growing degree days of a given plant species may remain largely constant despite climate change.
[\textbackslash n] None of the models we examined simulate forest landscape processes, which are spatially continuous and temporally dynamic processes (e.g., fire disturbance). Forest landscape processes are likely to have greater contribution to forest ecosystem responses than climate variables alone (Gustafson et al., 2010, Kurz et al., 2008, Girardin and Mudelsee, 2008 and Li et al., 2013). Therefore, greater bias could occur if forest landscape processes are not included in the prediction of forest ecosystem dynamics (Reynolds et al., 2001). [...]
[\textbackslash n] Superiority of complex physiological model at the plot scale was achieved at the price of more detailed input data, longer time of simulation, and more simplified representation of forest composition. While the hybrid model was the best model at the regional scale, it cannot provide carbon dynamics at a fine temporal scale (e.g., daily carbon sequestration) like the complex physiological model can. The simple physiological model provided the worst prediction. Although we primarily focused on density of aboveground woody biomass, other traits associated with forest ecosystems (e.g., forest composition, basal area) are often of interest in ecosystem and landscape modeling. Data preparation and simulation time are also often, if not always, of concern.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13886261,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-toward-primacy-of-theory-over-reality,comparison,complexity,complexity-vs-uncertainty,ecosystem,environmental-modelling,forest-resources,local-over-complication,local-scale,model-comparison,modelling,regional-scale,system-of-systems,uncertainty}
}Research to Integrate Productivity Enhancement, Environmental Protection, and Human Development. Sayer, J. A. & Campbell, B. 5(2):32++.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex To meet the challenges of poverty and environmental sustainability, a different kind of research will be needed. This research will need to embrace the complexity of these systems by redirecting the objectives of research toward enhancing adaptive capacity, by incorporating more participatory approaches, by embracing key principles such as multi-scale analysis and intervention, and by the use of a variety of tools (e.g., systems analysis, information management tools, and impact assessment tools). Integration will be the key concept in the new approach; integration across scales, components, stakeholders, and disciplines. Integrated approaches, as described in this Special Feature, will require changes in the culture and organization of research.
@article{sayerResearchIntegrateProductivity2001,
title = {Research to {{Integrate Productivity Enhancement}}, {{Environmental Protection}}, and {{Human Development}}},
author = {Sayer, Jeffrey A. and Campbell, Bruce},
date = {2001},
journaltitle = {Ecology and Society},
volume = {5},
pages = {32++},
issn = {1708-3087},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/12603983},
abstract = {To meet the challenges of poverty and environmental sustainability, a different kind of research will be needed. This research will need to embrace the complexity of these systems by redirecting the objectives of research toward enhancing adaptive capacity, by incorporating more participatory approaches, by embracing key principles such as multi-scale analysis and intervention, and by the use of a variety of tools (e.g., systems analysis, information management tools, and impact assessment tools). Integration will be the key concept in the new approach; integration across scales, components, stakeholders, and disciplines. Integrated approaches, as described in this Special Feature, will require changes in the culture and organization of research.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12603983,complexity,conservation,ecology,indicators,integration-techniques,multi-objective-planning,multi-stakeholder-decision-making,non-linearity,scientific-communication,uncertainty},
number = {2}
}Communicating Thematic Data Quality with Web Map Services. Blower, J., Masó, J., D́ıaz, D., Roberts, C., Griffiths, G., Lewis, J., Yang, X., & Pons, X. 4(4):1965–1981.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Geospatial information of many kinds, from topographic maps to scientific data, is increasingly being made available through web mapping services. These allow georeferenced map images to be served from data stores and displayed in websites and geographic information systems, where they can be integrated with other geographic information. The Open Geospatial Consortium's Web Map Service (WMS) standard has been widely adopted in diverse communities for sharing data in this way. However, current services typically provide little or no information about the quality or accuracy of the data they serve. In this paper we will describe the design and implementation of a new ” quality-enabled” profile of WMS, which we call ” WMS-Q”. This describes how information about data quality can be transmitted to the user through WMS. Such information can exist at many levels, from entire datasets to individual measurements, and includes the many different ways in which data uncertainty can be expressed. We also describe proposed extensions to the Symbology Encoding specification, which include provision for visualizing uncertainty in raster data in a number of different ways, including contours, shading and bivariate colour maps. We shall also describe new open-source implementations of the new specifications, which include both clients and servers.
@article{blowerCommunicatingThematicData2015,
title = {Communicating Thematic Data Quality with Web Map Services},
author = {Blower, Jon and Masó, Joan and D́ıaz, Daniel and Roberts, Charles and Griffiths, Guy and Lewis, Jane and Yang, Xiaoyu and Pons, Xavier},
date = {2015-10},
journaltitle = {ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information},
volume = {4},
pages = {1965--1981},
issn = {2220-9964},
doi = {10.3390/ijgi4041965},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi4041965},
abstract = {Geospatial information of many kinds, from topographic maps to scientific data, is increasingly being made available through web mapping services. These allow georeferenced map images to be served from data stores and displayed in websites and geographic information systems, where they can be integrated with other geographic information. The Open Geospatial Consortium's Web Map Service (WMS) standard has been widely adopted in diverse communities for sharing data in this way. However, current services typically provide little or no information about the quality or accuracy of the data they serve. In this paper we will describe the design and implementation of a new ” quality-enabled” profile of WMS, which we call ” WMS-Q”. This describes how information about data quality can be transmitted to the user through WMS. Such information can exist at many levels, from entire datasets to individual measurements, and includes the many different ways in which data uncertainty can be expressed. We also describe proposed extensions to the Symbology Encoding specification, which include provision for visualizing uncertainty in raster data in a number of different ways, including contours, shading and bivariate colour maps. We shall also describe new open-source implementations of the new specifications, which include both clients and servers.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13815787,~to-add-doi-URL,communicating-uncertainty,geospatial,scientific-communication,uncertainty,visualization,web-map-services},
number = {4}
}The Himalayas Must Be Protected. Pandit, M. K. 501(7467):283.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Climate change and human activities are pushing the fragile ecosystem ever closer to instability, warns Maharaj K. Pandit.
@article{panditHimalayasMustBe2013,
title = {The {{Himalayas}} Must Be Protected},
author = {Pandit, Maharaj K.},
date = {2013-09},
journaltitle = {Nature},
volume = {501},
pages = {283},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/501283a},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/501283a},
abstract = {Climate change and human activities are pushing the fragile ecosystem ever closer to instability, warns Maharaj K. Pandit.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12634465,climate-change,disasters,ecosystem-change,ecosystem-resilience,himalayan-region,science-policy-interface,uncertainty},
number = {7467}
}Defining Extreme Wildfire Events: Difficulties, Challenges, and Impacts. Tedim, F., Leone, V., Amraoui, M., Bouillon, C., Coughlan, M., Delogu, G., Fernandes, P., Ferreira, C., McCaffrey, S., McGee, T., Parente, J., Paton, D., Pereira, M., Ribeiro, L., Viegas, D., & Xanthopoulos, G. 1(1):9+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Every year worldwide some extraordinary wildfires occur, overwhelming suppression capabilities, causing substantial damages, and often resulting in fatalities. Given their increasing frequency, there is a debate about how to address these wildfires with significant social impacts, but there is no agreement upon terminology to describe them. The concept of extreme wildfire event (EWE) has emerged to bring some coherence on this kind of events. It is increasingly used, often as a synonym of other terms related to wildfires of high intensity and size, but its definition remains elusive. The goal of this paper is to go beyond drawing on distinct disciplinary perspectives to develop a holistic view of EWE as a social-ecological phenomenon. Based on literature review and using a transdisciplinary approach, this paper proposes a definition of EWE as a process and an outcome. Considering the lack of a consistent ” scale of gravity” to leverage extreme wildfire events such as in natural hazards (e.g., tornados, hurricanes and earthquakes) we present a proposal of wildfire classification with seven categories based on measurable fire spread and behavior parameters and suppression difficulty. The categories 5 to 7 are labeled as EWE.
@article{tedimDefiningExtremeWildfire2018,
title = {Defining Extreme Wildfire Events: Difficulties, Challenges, and Impacts},
author = {Tedim, Fantina and Leone, Vittorio and Amraoui, Malik and Bouillon, Christophe and Coughlan, Michael and Delogu, Giuseppe and Fernandes, Paulo and Ferreira, Carmen and McCaffrey, Sarah and McGee, Tara and Parente, Joana and Paton, Douglas and Pereira, Mário and Ribeiro, Lúıs and Viegas, Domingos and Xanthopoulos, Gavriil},
date = {2018-02},
journaltitle = {Fire},
volume = {1},
pages = {9+},
issn = {2571-6255},
doi = {10.3390/fire1010009},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/fire1010009},
abstract = {Every year worldwide some extraordinary wildfires occur, overwhelming suppression capabilities, causing substantial damages, and often resulting in fatalities. Given their increasing frequency, there is a debate about how to address these wildfires with significant social impacts, but there is no agreement upon terminology to describe them. The concept of extreme wildfire event (EWE) has emerged to bring some coherence on this kind of events. It is increasingly used, often as a synonym of other terms related to wildfires of high intensity and size, but its definition remains elusive. The goal of this paper is to go beyond drawing on distinct disciplinary perspectives to develop a holistic view of EWE as a social-ecological phenomenon. Based on literature review and using a transdisciplinary approach, this paper proposes a definition of EWE as a process and an outcome. Considering the lack of a consistent ” scale of gravity” to leverage extreme wildfire events such as in natural hazards (e.g., tornados, hurricanes and earthquakes) we present a proposal of wildfire classification with seven categories based on measurable fire spread and behavior parameters and suppression difficulty. The categories 5 to 7 are labeled as EWE.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14686423,ambiguity,classification,climate-extremes,definition,extreme-events,extreme-weather,fire-spotting-distance,forest-fires,forest-resources,pyroconvection,spatial-spread,terminology,uncertainty,vegetation,wildfires,wind},
number = {1}
}Biomass and Stem Volume Equations for Tree Species in Europe. Zianis, D., Muukkonen, P., Mäkipää, R., & Mencuccini, M. Volume 4 of Silva Fennica, Finnish Society of Forest Science, Finnish Forest Research Institute.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Review of stem volume and biomass equations for tree species growing in Europe is presented. The mathematical forms of the empirical models, the associated statistical parameters and information about the size of the trees and the country of origin were collated from scientific articles and from technical reports. The collected information provides a basic tool for estimation of carbon stocks and nutrient balance of forest ecosystems across Europe as well as for validation of theoretical models of biomass allocation.
@book{zianisBiomassStemVolume2005,
title = {Biomass and Stem Volume Equations for Tree Species in {{Europe}}},
author = {Zianis, Dimitris and Muukkonen, Petteri and Mäkipää, Raisa and Mencuccini, Maurizio},
date = {2005},
volume = {4},
publisher = {{Finnish Society of Forest Science, Finnish Forest Research Institute}},
issn = {1457-7356},
url = {http://www.metla.fi/silvafennica/abs/sma/sma004.htm},
abstract = {Review of stem volume and biomass equations for tree species growing in Europe is presented. The mathematical forms of the empirical models, the associated statistical parameters and information about the size of the trees and the country of origin were collated from scientific articles and from technical reports. The collected information provides a basic tool for estimation of carbon stocks and nutrient balance of forest ecosystems across Europe as well as for validation of theoretical models of biomass allocation.},
isbn = {951-40-1984-9},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11858948,biomass,empirical-equation,forest-biomass,forest-resources,modelling-uncertainty,regression,review,uncertainty},
series = {Silva {{Fennica}}}
}The Evolution of Error: Error Management, Cognitive Constraints, and Adaptive Decision-Making Biases. Johnson, D. D. P., Blumstein, D. T., Fowler, J. H., & Haselton, M. G. 28(8):474–481.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Counterintuitively, biases can improve decision making. Numerous studies have identified biases as an effective way to manage errors. Given cognitive and evolutionary constraints, psychological biases can be adaptive. EMT has a wide scope of application for modern challenges. Counterintuitively, biases in behavior or cognition can improve decision making. Under conditions of uncertainty and asymmetric costs of 'false-positive' and 'false-negative' errors, biases can lead to mistakes in one direction but - in so doing - steer us away from more costly mistakes in the other direction. For example, we sometimes think sticks are snakes (which is harmless), but rarely that snakes are sticks (which can be deadly). We suggest that 'error management' biases: (i) have been independently identified by multiple interdisciplinary studies, suggesting the phenomenon is robust across domains, disciplines, and methodologies; (ii) represent a general feature of life, with common sources of variation; and (iii) offer an explanation, in error management theory (EMT), for the evolution of cognitive biases as the best way to manage errors under cognitive and evolutionary constraints.
@article{johnsonEvolutionErrorError2013,
title = {The Evolution of Error: Error Management, Cognitive Constraints, and Adaptive Decision-Making Biases},
author = {Johnson, Dominic D. P. and Blumstein, Daniel T. and Fowler, James H. and Haselton, Martie G.},
date = {2013-08},
journaltitle = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
volume = {28},
pages = {474--481},
issn = {0169-5347},
doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.014},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.014},
abstract = {Counterintuitively, biases can improve decision making. Numerous studies have identified biases as an effective way to manage errors. Given cognitive and evolutionary constraints, psychological biases can be adaptive. EMT has a wide scope of application for modern challenges. Counterintuitively, biases in behavior or cognition can improve decision making. Under conditions of uncertainty and asymmetric costs of 'false-positive' and 'false-negative' errors, biases can lead to mistakes in one direction but - in so doing - steer us away from more costly mistakes in the other direction. For example, we sometimes think sticks are snakes (which is harmless), but rarely that snakes are sticks (which can be deadly). We suggest that 'error management' biases: (i) have been independently identified by multiple interdisciplinary studies, suggesting the phenomenon is robust across domains, disciplines, and methodologies; (ii) represent a general feature of life, with common sources of variation; and (iii) offer an explanation, in error management theory (EMT), for the evolution of cognitive biases as the best way to manage errors under cognitive and evolutionary constraints.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12447186,cognitive-biases,communicating-uncertainty,errors,evolution,science-based-decision-making,scientific-communication,transdisciplinary-research,uncertainty},
number = {8}
}The Value of Coordinated Management of Interacting Ecosystem Services. White, C., Costello, C., Kendall, B. E., & Brown, C. J. 15(6):509–519.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Coordinating decisions and actions among interacting sectors is a critical component of ecosystem-based management, but uncertainty about coordinated management's effects is compromising its perceived value and use. We constructed an analytical framework for explicitly calculating how coordination affects management decisions, ecosystem state and the provision of ecosystem services in relation to ecosystem dynamics and socio-economic objectives. The central insight is that the appropriate comparison strategy to optimal coordinated management is optimal uncoordinated management, which can be identified at the game theoretic Nash equilibrium. Using this insight we can calculate coordination's effects in relation to uncoordinated management and other reference scenarios. To illustrate how this framework can help identify ecosystem and socio-economic conditions under which coordination is most influential and valuable, we applied it to a heuristic case study and a simulation model for the California Current Marine Ecosystem. Results indicate that coordinated management can more than double an ecosystem's societal value, especially when sectors can effectively manipulate resources that interact strongly. However, societal gains from coordination will need to be reconciled with observations that it also leads to strategic simplification of the ecological food web, and generates both positive and negative impacts on individual sectors and non-target species.
@article{whiteValueCoordinatedManagement2012,
title = {The Value of Coordinated Management of Interacting Ecosystem Services},
author = {White, Crow and Costello, Christopher and Kendall, Bruce E. and Brown, Christopher J.},
date = {2012-06},
journaltitle = {Ecology Letters},
volume = {15},
pages = {509--519},
issn = {1461-0248},
doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01773.x},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01773.x},
abstract = {Coordinating decisions and actions among interacting sectors is a critical component of ecosystem-based management, but uncertainty about coordinated management's effects is compromising its perceived value and use. We constructed an analytical framework for explicitly calculating how coordination affects management decisions, ecosystem state and the provision of ecosystem services in relation to ecosystem dynamics and socio-economic objectives. The central insight is that the appropriate comparison strategy to optimal coordinated management is optimal uncoordinated management, which can be identified at the game theoretic Nash equilibrium. Using this insight we can calculate coordination's effects in relation to uncoordinated management and other reference scenarios. To illustrate how this framework can help identify ecosystem and socio-economic conditions under which coordination is most influential and valuable, we applied it to a heuristic case study and a simulation model for the California Current Marine Ecosystem. Results indicate that coordinated management can more than double an ecosystem's societal value, especially when sectors can effectively manipulate resources that interact strongly. However, societal gains from coordination will need to be reconciled with observations that it also leads to strategic simplification of the ecological food web, and generates both positive and negative impacts on individual sectors and non-target species.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10562193,cross-disciplinary-perspective,ecology,ecosystem-services,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,integration-techniques,multi-objective-planning,uncertainty},
number = {6}
}Rise of the Citizen Scientist. Nature 524(7565):265.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex From the oceans to the soil, technology is changing the part that amateurs can play in research. But this greater involvement raises concerns that must be addressed. [Excerpt] [...] Citizen science has come a long way from the first distributed-computing projects that hoovered up spare processing power on home computers to perform calculations or search for alien signals. And it has progressed further still since the earliest public surveys of wildlife: it was way back in 1900 that the Audubon Society persuaded Americans to exchange their Christmas tradition of shooting birds for a more productive effort to count them instead. [] Some professional scientists are sniffy about the role of amateurs, but as an increasing number of academic papers makes clear, the results can be valuable and can help both to generate data and to inform policy. [...] [] Technology can make scientists of us all. Data churned out by the rapid spread of consumer gadgets equipped with satellite navigation, cameras and a suite of other sensors, and the ease of sharing the results digitally, are driving the boom in citizen science. Volunteers can already identify whale songs from recordings, report litter and invasive species, and send in the skeletons of fish they have caught and consumed. But there is more to being a scientist, of course, than collecting and sharing data – especially if the results are to be used to help determine policy. [] Critics have raised concerns about data quality, and some studies do find that volunteers are less able to identify plant species than are academics and land managers. And there are issues around how to reward and recognize the contribution of volunteers, and around ensuring that data are shared or kept confidential as appropriate. But these problems seem relatively simple to address – not least because they reflect points – from authorship to data quality and access – that the professional scientific community is already wrestling with. [] More troubling, perhaps, is the potential for conflicts of interest. One reason that some citizen scientists volunteer is to advance their political objectives. [...] Scientists and funders are right to encourage the shift from passive citizen science – number crunching – to more-active roles, including sample collection. But as increased scrutiny falls on the reliability of the work of professional scientists, full transparency about the motives and ambitions of amateurs is essential.
@article{natureRiseCitizenScientist2015,
title = {Rise of the Citizen Scientist},
author = {{Nature}},
date = {2015-08},
journaltitle = {Nature},
volume = {524},
pages = {265},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/524265a},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/524265a},
abstract = {From the oceans to the soil, technology is changing the part that amateurs can play in research. But this greater involvement raises concerns that must be addressed.
[Excerpt] [...] Citizen science has come a long way from the first distributed-computing projects that hoovered up spare processing power on home computers to perform calculations or search for alien signals. And it has progressed further still since the earliest public surveys of wildlife: it was way back in 1900 that the Audubon Society persuaded Americans to exchange their Christmas tradition of shooting birds for a more productive effort to count them instead.
[] Some professional scientists are sniffy about the role of amateurs, but as an increasing number of academic papers makes clear, the results can be valuable and can help both to generate data and to inform policy. [...]
[] Technology can make scientists of us all. Data churned out by the rapid spread of consumer gadgets equipped with satellite navigation, cameras and a suite of other sensors, and the ease of sharing the results digitally, are driving the boom in citizen science. Volunteers can already identify whale songs from recordings, report litter and invasive species, and send in the skeletons of fish they have caught and consumed. But there is more to being a scientist, of course, than collecting and sharing data -- especially if the results are to be used to help determine policy.
[] Critics have raised concerns about data quality, and some studies do find that volunteers are less able to identify plant species than are academics and land managers. And there are issues around how to reward and recognize the contribution of volunteers, and around ensuring that data are shared or kept confidential as appropriate. But these problems seem relatively simple to address -- not least because they reflect points -- from authorship to data quality and access -- that the professional scientific community is already wrestling with.
[] More troubling, perhaps, is the potential for conflicts of interest. One reason that some citizen scientists volunteer is to advance their political objectives. [...] Scientists and funders are right to encourage the shift from passive citizen science -- number crunching -- to more-active roles, including sample collection. But as increased scrutiny falls on the reliability of the work of professional scientists, full transparency about the motives and ambitions of amateurs is essential.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13706673,~to-add-doi-URL,citizen-science,citizen-sensor,data-collection-bias,data-uncertainty,integration-techniques,science-ethics,uncertainty},
number = {7565}
}Multi-Dimensional Weighted Median: The Module "Wmedian" of the Mastrave Modelling Library. de Rigo, D. In Semantic Array Programming with Mastrave - Introduction to Semantic Computational Modelling. Mastrave project.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Weighted median (WM) filtering is a well known technique for dealing with noisy images and a variety of WM-based algorithms have been proposed as effective ways for reducing uncertainties or reconstructing degraded signals by means of available information with heterogeneous reliability. Here a generalized module for applying weighted median filtering to multi-dimensional arrays of information with associated multi-dimensional arrays of corresponding weights is presented. Weights may be associated to single elements or to groups of elements along given dimensions of the multi-dimensional arrays. The filtered information derives from a reduction operator applied along a custom dimension.
@incollection{derigoMultidimensionalWeightedMedian2012,
title = {Multi-Dimensional Weighted Median: The Module "Wmedian" of the {{Mastrave}} Modelling Library},
booktitle = {Semantic {{Array Programming}} with {{Mastrave}} - {{Introduction}} to {{Semantic Computational Modelling}}},
author = {de Rigo, Daniele},
date = {2012},
publisher = {{Mastrave project}},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14257128},
abstract = {Weighted median (WM) filtering is a well known technique for dealing with noisy images and a variety of WM-based algorithms have been proposed as effective ways for reducing uncertainties or reconstructing degraded signals by means of available information with heterogeneous reliability. Here a generalized module for applying weighted median filtering to multi-dimensional arrays of information with associated multi-dimensional arrays of corresponding weights is presented. Weights may be associated to single elements or to groups of elements along given dimensions of the multi-dimensional arrays. The filtered information derives from a reduction operator applied along a custom dimension.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257128,computational-science,free-scientific-software,free-software,gnu-octave,integration-techniques,mastrave-modelling-library,median,modelling,robust-modelling,semantic-array-programming,semantics,semap,software-engineering,uncertainty,weighting},
options = {useprefix=true}
}Uncertainty in the Environmental Modelling Process - A Framework and Guidance. Refsgaard, J. C., van der Sluijs, J. P., Højberg, A. L., & Vanrolleghem, P. A. 22(11):1543–1556.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex A terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modelling process, its interaction with the broader water management process and the role of uncertainty at different stages in the modelling processes. Brief reviews have been made of 14 different (partly complementary) methods commonly used in uncertainty assessment and characterisation: data uncertainty engine (DUE), error propagation equations, expert elicitation, extended peer review, inverse modelling (parameter estimation), inverse modelling (predictive uncertainty), Monte Carlo analysis, multiple model simulation, NUSAP, quality assurance, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, stakeholder involvement and uncertainty matrix. The applicability of these methods has been mapped according to purpose of application, stage of the modelling process and source and type of uncertainty addressed. It is concluded that uncertainty assessment is not just something to be added after the completion of the modelling work. Instead uncertainty should be seen as a red thread throughout the modelling study starting from the very beginning, where the identification and characterisation of all uncertainty sources should be performed jointly by the modeller, the water manager and the stakeholders.
@article{refsgaardUncertaintyEnvironmentalModelling2007,
title = {Uncertainty in the Environmental Modelling Process - {{A}} Framework and Guidance},
author = {Refsgaard, Jens C. and van der Sluijs, Jeroen P. and Højberg, Anker L. and Vanrolleghem, Peter A.},
date = {2007-11},
journaltitle = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
volume = {22},
pages = {1543--1556},
issn = {1364-8152},
doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.004},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2007.02.004},
abstract = {A terminology and typology of uncertainty is presented together with a framework for the modelling process, its interaction with the broader water management process and the role of uncertainty at different stages in the modelling processes. Brief reviews have been made of 14 different (partly complementary) methods commonly used in uncertainty assessment and characterisation: data uncertainty engine (DUE), error propagation equations, expert elicitation, extended peer review, inverse modelling (parameter estimation), inverse modelling (predictive uncertainty), Monte Carlo analysis, multiple model simulation, NUSAP, quality assurance, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, stakeholder involvement and uncertainty matrix. The applicability of these methods has been mapped according to purpose of application, stage of the modelling process and source and type of uncertainty addressed. It is concluded that uncertainty assessment is not just something to be added after the completion of the modelling work. Instead uncertainty should be seen as a red thread throughout the modelling study starting from the very beginning, where the identification and characterisation of all uncertainty sources should be performed jointly by the modeller, the water manager and the stakeholders.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-1507111,environmental-modelling,monte-carlo,multi-stakeholder-decision-making,participatory-modelling,scenario-analysis,uncertainty},
number = {11},
options = {useprefix=true}
}Free and Open Source Software Underpinning the European Forest Data Centre. Rodriguez-Aseretto, D., Di Leo, M., de Rigo, D., Corti, P., McInerney, D., Camia, A., & San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. 15:12101+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Worldwide, governments are growingly focusing on free and open source software (FOSS) as a move toward transparency and the freedom to run, copy, study, change and improve the software. The European Commission (EC) is also supporting the development of FOSS [...]. In addition to the financial savings, FOSS contributes to scientific knowledge freedom in computational science (CS) and is increasingly rewarded in the science-policy interface within the emerging paradigm of open science. Since complex computational science applications may be affected by software uncertainty, FOSS may help to mitigate part of the impact of software errors by CS community- driven open review, correction and evolution of scientific code. The continental scale of EC science-based policy support implies wide networks of scientific collaboration. Thematic information systems also may benefit from this approach within reproducible integrated modelling. This is supported by the EC strategy on FOSS: "for the development of new information systems, where deployment is foreseen by parties outside of the EC infrastructure, FOSS will be the preferred choice and in any case used whenever possible". The aim of this contribution is to highlight how a continental scale information system may exploit and integrate FOSS technologies within the transdisciplinary research underpinning such a complex system. A European example is discussed where FOSS innervates both the structure of the information system itself and the inherent transdisciplinary research for modelling the data and information which constitute the system content. [...]
@article{rodriguez-aserettoFreeOpenSource2013,
title = {Free and {{Open Source Software}} Underpinning the {{European Forest Data Centre}}},
author = {Rodriguez-Aseretto, Dario and Di Leo, Margherita and de Rigo, Daniele and Corti, Paolo and McInerney, Daniel and Camia, Andrea and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús},
date = {2013},
journaltitle = {Geophysical Research Abstracts},
volume = {15},
pages = {12101+},
issn = {1607-7962},
doi = {10.6084/m9.figshare.155700},
url = {https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.155700},
abstract = {Worldwide, governments are growingly focusing on free and open source software (FOSS) as a move toward transparency and the freedom to run, copy, study, change and improve the software. The European Commission (EC) is also supporting the development of FOSS [...]. In addition to the financial savings, FOSS contributes to scientific knowledge freedom in computational science (CS) and is increasingly rewarded in the science-policy interface within the emerging paradigm of open science. Since complex computational science applications may be affected by software uncertainty, FOSS may help to mitigate part of the impact of software errors by CS community- driven open review, correction and evolution of scientific code. The continental scale of EC science-based policy support implies wide networks of scientific collaboration. Thematic information systems also may benefit from this approach within reproducible integrated modelling. This is supported by the EC strategy on FOSS: "for the development of new information systems, where deployment is foreseen by parties outside of the EC infrastructure, FOSS will be the preferred choice and in any case used whenever possible". The aim of this contribution is to highlight how a continental scale information system may exploit and integrate FOSS technologies within the transdisciplinary research underpinning such a complex system. A European example is discussed where FOSS innervates both the structure of the information system itself and the inherent transdisciplinary research for modelling the data and information which constitute the system content. [...]},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11988844,computational-science,data-transformation-modelling,environmental-modelling,europe,free-scientific-knowledge,free-scientific-software,free-software,gdal,geospatial,geospatial-semantic-array-programming,gis,gnu-octave,gnu-r,guidos-mspa,integrated-modelling,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,mastrave-modelling-library,modelling,modelling-uncertainty,numpy,open-science,pktools,python,robust-modelling,science-policy-interface,scipy,semantic-array-programming,semantics,semap,software-engineering,software-errors,software-uncertainty,system-engineering,uncertainty},
options = {useprefix=true},
series = {Geophysical {{Research Abstracts}}}
}Rising Policy Conflicts in Europe over Bioenergy and Forestry. Söderberg, C. & Eckerberg, K. 33:112–119.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] EU Bioenergy policy cuts across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. [::] Increased pressure on forest biomass risks putting EU in a wood-deficit situation. [::] Bioenergy conflicts regard land use, biodiversity, climate and sustainability. [::] Conflicts on environmental consequences from bioenergy policy are reconcilable. [::] Conflicts on globally shared rights and responsibilities are not easily reconciled. [Abstract] Growing concerns over emissions of green-house gases causing climate change as well as energy security concerns have spurred the interest in bioenergy production pushed by EU targets to fulfil the goal of 20~per cent renewable energy in 2020, as well as the goal of 10~per cent renewable fuels in transport by 2020. Increased bioenergy production is also seen to have political and economic benefits for rural areas and farming regions in Europe and in the developing world. There are, however, conflicting views on the potential benefits of large scale bioenergy production, and recent debates have also drawn attention to a range of environmental and socio-economic issues that may arise in this respect. One of these challenges will be that of accommodating forest uses - including wood for energy, and resulting intensification of forest management - with biodiversity protection in order to meet EU policy goals. We note that the use of biomass and biofuels spans over several economic sector policy areas, which calls for assessing and integrating environmental concerns across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. In this paper, we employ frame analysis to identify the arguments for promoting bioenergy and assess the potential policy conflicts in the relevant sectors, through the analytical lens of environmental policy integration. We conclude that while there is considerable leverage of environmental arguments in favour of bioenergy in the studied economic sectors, and potential synergies with other policy goals, environmental interest groups remain sceptical to just how bioenergy is currently being promoted. There is a highly polarised debate particularly relating to biofuel production. Based on our analysis, we discuss the potential for how those issues could be reconciled drawing on the frame conflict theory, distinguishing between policy disagreements and policy controversies.
@article{soderbergRisingPolicyConflicts2013,
title = {Rising Policy Conflicts in {{Europe}} over Bioenergy and Forestry},
author = {Söderberg, Charlotta and Eckerberg, Katarina},
date = {2013-08},
journaltitle = {Forest Policy and Economics},
volume = {33},
pages = {112--119},
issn = {1389-9341},
doi = {10.1016/j.forpol.2012.09.015},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2012.09.015},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] EU Bioenergy policy cuts across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. [::] Increased pressure on forest biomass risks putting EU in a wood-deficit situation. [::] Bioenergy conflicts regard land use, biodiversity, climate and sustainability. [::] Conflicts on environmental consequences from bioenergy policy are reconcilable. [::] Conflicts on globally shared rights and responsibilities are not easily reconciled.
[Abstract] Growing concerns over emissions of green-house gases causing climate change as well as energy security concerns have spurred the interest in bioenergy production pushed by EU targets to fulfil the goal of 20~per cent renewable energy in 2020, as well as the goal of 10~per cent renewable fuels in transport by 2020. Increased bioenergy production is also seen to have political and economic benefits for rural areas and farming regions in Europe and in the developing world. There are, however, conflicting views on the potential benefits of large scale bioenergy production, and recent debates have also drawn attention to a range of environmental and socio-economic issues that may arise in this respect. One of these challenges will be that of accommodating forest uses - including wood for energy, and resulting intensification of forest management - with biodiversity protection in order to meet EU policy goals. We note that the use of biomass and biofuels spans over several economic sector policy areas, which calls for assessing and integrating environmental concerns across forest, agriculture, energy and transport sectors. In this paper, we employ frame analysis to identify the arguments for promoting bioenergy and assess the potential policy conflicts in the relevant sectors, through the analytical lens of environmental policy integration. We conclude that while there is considerable leverage of environmental arguments in favour of bioenergy in the studied economic sectors, and potential synergies with other policy goals, environmental interest groups remain sceptical to just how bioenergy is currently being promoted. There is a highly polarised debate particularly relating to biofuel production. Based on our analysis, we discuss the potential for how those issues could be reconciled drawing on the frame conflict theory, distinguishing between policy disagreements and policy controversies.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11738844,~to-add-doi-URL,bioenergy,biomass,europe,forest-resources,ghg,science-policy-interface,uncertainty}
}Probabilistic Population Projections with Migration Uncertainty. Azose, J. J., Ševč́ıková, H., & Raftery, A. E. 113(23):6460–6465.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Significance] Projected populations to the end of this century are an important factor in many policy decisions. Population forecasts become less reliable as we look farther into the future, suggesting a probabilistic approach to convey uncertainty. Migration projections have been largely deterministic until now, even in probabilistic population projections. Deterministic migration projections neglect a substantial source of population uncertainty. We incorporate a probabilistic migration model with probabilistic models of fertility and mortality to produce probabilistic population projections for all countries until 2100. The result is a substantial increase in uncertainty about the populations of Europe and Northern America, with very little change to uncertainty about the population of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole. [Abstract] We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70\,% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.
@article{azoseProbabilisticPopulationProjections2016,
title = {Probabilistic Population Projections with Migration Uncertainty},
author = {Azose, Jonathan J. and Ševč́ıková, Hana and Raftery, Adrian E.},
date = {2016-06},
journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {113},
pages = {6460--6465},
issn = {1091-6490},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1606119113},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14062239},
abstract = {[Significance]
Projected populations to the end of this century are an important factor in many policy decisions. Population forecasts become less reliable as we look farther into the future, suggesting a probabilistic approach to convey uncertainty. Migration projections have been largely deterministic until now, even in probabilistic population projections. Deterministic migration projections neglect a substantial source of population uncertainty. We incorporate a probabilistic migration model with probabilistic models of fertility and mortality to produce probabilistic population projections for all countries until 2100. The result is a substantial increase in uncertainty about the populations of Europe and Northern America, with very little change to uncertainty about the population of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole.
[Abstract]
We produce probabilistic projections of population for all countries based on probabilistic projections of fertility, mortality, and migration. We compare our projections to those from the United Nations' Probabilistic Population Projections, which uses similar methods for fertility and mortality but deterministic migration projections. We find that uncertainty in migration projection is a substantial contributor to uncertainty in population projections for many countries. Prediction intervals for the populations of Northern America and Europe are over 70\,\% wider, whereas prediction intervals for the populations of Africa, Asia, and the world as a whole are nearly unchanged. Out-of-sample validation shows that the model is reasonably well calibrated.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14062239,~to-add-doi-URL,migration-pattern,population-growth,statistics,uncertainty},
number = {23}
}Beyond Competition: Incorporating Positive Interactions between Species to Predict Ecosystem Invasibility. Bulleri, F., Bruno, J. F., & Benedetti-Cecchi, L. 6(6):e162+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Incorporating positive species interactions into models relating native species richness to community invasibility will increase our ability to forecast, prevent, and manage future invasions.
@article{bulleriCompetitionIncorporatingPositive2008,
title = {Beyond Competition: Incorporating Positive Interactions between Species to Predict Ecosystem Invasibility},
author = {Bulleri, Fabio and Bruno, John F. and Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro},
date = {2008-06},
journaltitle = {PLoS Biol},
volume = {6},
pages = {e162+},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pbio.0060162},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.0060162},
abstract = {Incorporating positive species interactions into models relating native species richness to community invasibility will increase our ability to forecast, prevent, and manage future invasions.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-2931459,competition,ecosystem-invasibility,ecosystem-resilience,invasive-species,non-linearity,species-positive-interaction,uncertainty},
number = {6}
}Trick of the Light. Nature 506(7486):6.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The Amazon doesn't absorb extra carbon in the dry season after all. It can become a carbon source.
@article{natureTrickLight2014,
title = {Trick of the Light},
author = {{Nature}},
date = {2014-02},
journaltitle = {Nature},
volume = {506},
pages = {6},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/506006b},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/506006b},
abstract = {The Amazon doesn't absorb extra carbon in the dry season after all. It can become a carbon source.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12972834,amazonia,carbon-cycle,forest-resources,modelling,modelling-uncertainty,organic-carbon,precipitation,remote-sensing,solar-radiation,uncertainty},
number = {7486}
}Reproducibility: A Tragedy of Errors. Allison, D. B., Brown, A. W., George, B. J., & Kaiser, K. A. 530(7588):27–29.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Mistakes in peer-reviewed papers are easy to find but hard to fix, report David B. Allison and colleagues. [Excerpt: Three common errors] As the influential twentieth-century statistician Ronald Fisher (pictured) said: ” To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of.” [] [...] Frequent errors, once recognized, can be kept out of the literature with targeted education and policies. Three of the most common are outlined below. These and others are described in depth in an upcoming publication7. [::1. Mistaken design or analysis of cluster-randomized trials] In these studies, all participants in a cluster (for example, a cage, school or hospital) are given the same treatment. The number of clusters (not just the number of individuals) must be incorporated into the analysis. Otherwise, results often seem, falsely, to be statistically significant8, 9. Increasing the number of individuals within clusters can increase power, but the gains are minute compared with increasing clusters. Designs with only one cluster per treatment are not valid as randomized experiments, regardless of how many individuals are included. [::2. Miscalculation in meta-analyses] Effect sizes are often miscalculated when meta-analysts are confronted with incomplete information and do not adapt appropriately. Another problem is confusion about how to calculate the variance of effects. Different study designs and meta-analyses require different approaches. Incorrect or inconsistent choices can change effect sizes, study weighting or the overall conclusions4. [::3. Inappropriate baseline comparisons] In at least six articles, authors tested for changes from the baseline in separate groups; if one was significant and one not, the authors (wrongly) proposed a difference between groups. Rather than comparing 'differences in nominal significance' (the DINS error) differences between groups must be compared directly. For studies comparing two equal-sized groups, the DINS error can inflate the false-positive rate from 5\,% to as much as 50\,% (ref. 10). [] [...]
@article{allisonReproducibilityTragedyErrors2016,
title = {Reproducibility: A Tragedy of Errors},
author = {Allison, David B. and Brown, Andrew W. and George, Brandon J. and Kaiser, Kathryn A.},
date = {2016-02},
journaltitle = {Nature},
volume = {530},
pages = {27--29},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/530027a},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/530027a},
abstract = {Mistakes in peer-reviewed papers are easy to find but hard to fix, report David B. Allison and colleagues.
[Excerpt: Three common errors]
As the influential twentieth-century statistician Ronald Fisher (pictured) said: ” To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of.”
[] [...]
Frequent errors, once recognized, can be kept out of the literature with targeted education and policies. Three of the most common are outlined below. These and others are described in depth in an upcoming publication7.
[::1. Mistaken design or analysis of cluster-randomized trials] In these studies, all participants in a cluster (for example, a cage, school or hospital) are given the same treatment. The number of clusters (not just the number of individuals) must be incorporated into the analysis. Otherwise, results often seem, falsely, to be statistically significant8, 9. Increasing the number of individuals within clusters can increase power, but the gains are minute compared with increasing clusters. Designs with only one cluster per treatment are not valid as randomized experiments, regardless of how many individuals are included.
[::2. Miscalculation in meta-analyses] Effect sizes are often miscalculated when meta-analysts are confronted with incomplete information and do not adapt appropriately. Another problem is confusion about how to calculate the variance of effects. Different study designs and meta-analyses require different approaches. Incorrect or inconsistent choices can change effect sizes, study weighting or the overall conclusions4.
[::3. Inappropriate baseline comparisons] In at least six articles, authors tested for changes from the baseline in separate groups; if one was significant and one not, the authors (wrongly) proposed a difference between groups. Rather than comparing 'differences in nominal significance' (the DINS error) differences between groups must be compared directly. For studies comparing two equal-sized groups, the DINS error can inflate the false-positive rate from 5\,\% to as much as 50\,\% (ref. 10).
[] [...]},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13924997,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,cognitive-biases,data-collection-bias,peer-review,post-publication-peer-review,publication-errors,reproducible-research,research-management,science-ethics,statistics,uncertainty,uncertainty-propagation},
number = {7588}
}