@article{cebrian-piqueras_scientific_2020,
	title = {Scientific and local ecological knowledge, shaping perceptions towards protected areas and related ecosystem services},
	volume = {35},
	issn = {0921-2973},
	doi = {10/ghdrxs},
	abstract = {Context Most protected areas are managed based on objectives related to scientific ecological knowledge of species and ecosystems. However, a core principle of sustainability science is that understanding and including local ecological knowledge, perceptions of ecosystem service provision and landscape vulnerability will improve sustainability and resilience of social-ecological systems. Here, we take up these assumptions in the context of protected areas to provide insight on the effectiveness of nature protection goals, particularly in highly human-influenced landscapes. Objectives We examined how residents' ecological knowledge systems, comprised of both local and scientific, mediated the relationship between their characteristics and a set of variables that represented perceptions of ecosystem services, landscape change, human-nature relationships, and impacts. Methods We administered a face-to-face survey to local residents in the Sierra de Guadarrama protected areas, Spain. We used bi- and multi-variate analysis, including partial least squares path modeling to test our hypotheses. Results Ecological knowledge systems were highly correlated and were instrumental in predicting perceptions of water-related ecosystem services, landscape change, increasing outdoors activities, and human-nature relationships. Engagement with nature, socio-demographics, trip characteristics, and a rural-urban gradient explained a high degree of variation in ecological knowledge. Bundles of perceived ecosystem services and impacts, in relation to ecological knowledge, emerged as social representation on how residents relate to, understand, and perceive landscapes. Conclusions Our findings provide insight into the interactions between ecological knowledge systems and their role in shaping perceptions of local communities about protected areas. These results are expected to inform protected area management and landscape sustainability.},
	language = {English},
	number = {11},
	journal = {Landscape Ecology},
	author = {Cebrian-Piqueras, M. A. and Filyushkina, A. and Johnson, D. N. and Lo, V. B. and Lopez-Rodriguez, M. D. and March, H. and Oteros-Rozas, E. and Peppler-Lisbach, C. and Quintas-Soriano, C. and Raymond, C. M. and Ruiz-Mallen, I. and van Riper, C. J. and Zinngrebe, Y. and Plieninger, T.},
	month = nov,
	year = {2020},
	keywords = {climate-change, biodiversity, resilience, Biodiversity, Protected areas, conservation, Inclusive conservation, systems, challenge, design, donana, Ecosystem services, Ecosystem vulnerability, Human-nature relationships, Landscape   sustainability, Local community, Traditional ecological knowledge, values},
	pages = {2549--2567},
}

@article{harkonenClimatesensitiveForestModel2019,
  title = {A Climate-Sensitive Forest Model for Assessing Impacts of Forest Management in {{Europe}}},
  author = {H{\"a}rk{\"o}nen, S. and Neumann, M. and Mues, V. and Berninger, F. and Bronisz, K. and Cardellini, G. and Chirici, G. and Hasenauer, H. and Koehl, M. and Lang, M. and Merganicova, K. and Mohren, F. and Moiseyev, A. and Moreno, A. and Mura, M. and Muys, B. and Olschofsky, K. and Del Perugia, B. and R{\o}rstad, P. K. and Solberg, B. and {Thivolle-Cazat}, A. and Trotsiuk, V. and M{\"a}kel{\"a}, A.},
  year = {2019},
  month = may,
  volume = {115},
  pages = {128--143},
  issn = {1364-8152},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.02.009},
  abstract = {FORMIT-M is a widely applicable, open-access, simple and flexible, climate-sensitive forest management simulator requiring only standard forest inventory data as input. It combines a process-based carbon balance approach with a strong inventory-based empirical component. The model has been linked to the global forest sector model EFI-GTM to secure consistency between timber cutting and demand, although prescribed harvest scenarios can also be used. Here we introduce the structure of the model and demonstrate its use with example simulations until the end of the 21st century in Europe, comparing different management scenarios in different regions under climate change. The model was consistent with country-level statistics of growing stock volumes (R2 = 0.938) and its projections of climate impact on growth agreed with other studies. The management changes had a greater impact on growing stocks, harvest potential and carbon balance than projected climate change, at least in the absence of increased disturbance rates.},
  journal = {Environmental Modelling \& Software},
  keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-D9CYM26W,bioeconomy,bioenergy,climate-change,disturbances,environmental-modelling,europe,forest-dynamics,forest-resources,formit,precipitation,rcp26,rcp45,rcp85,scenario-analysis,sustainability,temperature,timber-harvesting,vapour-pressure},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:z-D9CYM26W}
}

@article{obradovichEmpiricalEvidenceMental2018,
  title = {Empirical Evidence of Mental Health Risks Posed by Climate Change},
  author = {Obradovich, Nick and Migliorini, Robyn and Paulus, Martin P. and Rahwan, Iyad},
  year = {2018},
  month = oct,
  volume = {115},
  pages = {10953--10958},
  issn = {0027-8424},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1801528115},
  abstract = {[Significance] Wellbeing falters without sound mental health. Scholars have recently indicated that the impacts of climate change are likely to undermine mental health through a variety of direct and indirect mechanisms. Using daily meteorological data coupled with information from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents across a decade of data collection, we find that experience with hotter temperatures and added precipitation each worsen mental health, that multiyear warming associates with an increased prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to tropical cyclones, likely to increase in frequency and intensity in the future, is linked to worsened mental health. These results provide added large-scale evidence to the growing literature linking climate change and mental health.

[Abstract] Sound mental health -- a critical facet of human wellbeing -- has the potential to be undermined by climate change. Few large-scale studies have empirically examined this hypothesis. Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health. To do so, we couple meteorological and climatic data with reported mental health difficulties drawn from nearly 2 million randomly sampled US residents between 2002 and 2012. We find that shifting from monthly temperatures between 25 \textdegree C and 30 \textdegree C to {$>$}30 \textdegree C increases the probability of mental health difficulties by 0.5\,\% points, that 1\textdegree C of 5-year warming associates with a 2\,\% point increase in the prevalence of mental health issues, and that exposure to Hurricane Katrina associates with a 4\,\% point increase in this metric. Our analyses provide added quantitative support for the conclusion that environmental stressors produced by climate change pose threats to human mental health.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14648281,climate-change,cyclone,human-health,nonmarket-impacts,precipitation,society,temperature},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14648281},
  number = {43}
}

@article{moranSustainableHydropower21st2018,
  title = {Sustainable Hydropower in the 21st Century},
  author = {Moran, Emilio F. and Lopez, Maria C. and Moore, Nathan and M{\"u}ller, Norbert and Hyndman, David W.},
  year = {2018},
  month = nov,
  volume = {115},
  pages = {11891--11898},
  issn = {0027-8424},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1809426115},
  abstract = {[Significance] North American and European countries built many large dams until 1975, after which both started to abandon a significant part of their installed hydropower because of the negative social and environmental impacts. However, there has been a recent trend of new large hydropower dams being built in developing countries, particularly in megabiodiversity river basins, such as the Amazon, the Congo, and the Mekong. The socioeconomic and environmental damages in these river systems are even greater than the early costs in North America and Europe. This paper discusses how the hydropower sector needs to not only focus on energy production but also, include the negative social and environmental externalities caused by dams and recognize the unsustainability of current common practices.

[Abstract] Hydropower has been the leading source of renewable energy across the world, accounting for up to 71\,\% of this supply as of 2016. This capacity was built up in North America and Europe between 1920 and 1970 when thousands of dams were built. Big dams stopped being built in developed nations, because the best sites for dams were already developed and environmental and social concerns made the costs unacceptable. Nowadays, more dams are being removed in North America and Europe than are being built. The hydropower industry moved to building dams in the developing world and since the 1970s, began to build even larger hydropower dams along the Mekong River Basin, the Amazon River Basin, and the Congo River Basin. The same problems are being repeated: disrupting river ecology, deforestation, losing aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, releasing substantial greenhouse gases, displacing thousands of people, and altering people's livelihoods plus affecting the food systems, water quality, and agriculture near them. This paper studies the proliferation of large dams in developing countries and the importance of incorporating climate change into considerations of whether to build a dam along with some of the governance and compensation challenges. We also examine the overestimation of benefits and underestimation of costs along with changes that are needed to address the legitimate social and environmental concerns of people living in areas where dams are planned. Finally, we propose innovative solutions that can move hydropower toward sustainable practices together with solar, wind, and other renewable sources.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14657159,climate-change,environment-society-economy,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,multi-criteria-decision-analysis,multiplicity,neglecting-non-monetary-criteria,science-society-interface,sustainability,trade-offs,water-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14657159},
  number = {47}
}

@article{naumannGlobalChangesDrought2018,
  title = {Global Changes in Drought Conditions under Different Levels of Warming},
  author = {Naumann, G. and Alfieri, L. and Wyser, K. and Mentaschi, L. and Betts, R. A. and Carrao, H. and Spinoni, J. and Vogt, J. and Feyen, L.},
  year = {2018},
  volume = {45},
  pages = {3285--3296},
  issn = {1944-8007},
  doi = {10.1002/2017GL076521},
  abstract = {[Abstract]
Higher evaporative demands and more frequent and persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how drought conditions may develop across the globe for 1.5, 2, and 3\textdegree C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show that two thirds of global population will experience a progressive increase in drought conditions with warming. For drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise at rapidly increasing rates with warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/\textdegree C below 1.5\textdegree C to 4.2 month/\textdegree C when approaching 3\textdegree C. Drought magnitudes could double for 30\% of global landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary warming rates continue, water supply-demand deficits could become fivefold in size for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central states of the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. In approximately 20\% of the global land surface, drought magnitude will halve with warming of 1.5\textdegree C and higher levels, mainly most land areas north of latitude 55\textdegree N, but also parts of South America and Eastern and South-eastern Asia. A progressive and significant increase in frequency of droughts is projected with warming in the Mediterranean basin, most of Africa, West and Southern Asia, Central America, and Oceania, where droughts are projected to happen 5 to 10 times more frequent even under ambitious mitigation targets and current 100-year events could occur every two to five years under 3\textdegree C of warming.

[Plain Language Summary]
This research investigates the climatology of global drought conditions under different global warming levels. We consider warming levels of 1.5 and 2\textdegree C set out as mitigation targets in the Paris Agreement, as well as 3\textdegree C that is closer to what is expected by the end of the 21st century if current emission trends are retained. We found that the magnitude of droughts is likely to double in 30\% of the global landmass under stringent mitigation policies. If global warming continues at the present rate, water supply-demand deficits would increase fivefold while current 1-in-100-year droughts would occur every two to five years for most of Africa, Australia, southern Europe, southern and central United States, Central America, the Caribbean, north-west China, and parts of Southern America. Approximately two thirds of the global population will experience a progressive increase in drought hazard with warming. In drying areas, drought durations are projected to rise rapidly with warming. The main impacts of long-lasting droughts are linked to the lowering of the groundwater and of the water levels in reservoirs. This will impede replenishment of water supplies and may result in a difficult recovery and prolonged socio-economic impacts after severe droughts.},
  copyright = {\textcopyright 2018. The Authors.},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-XX7445H2,climate-change,droughts,global-scale,rcp85,standardized-precipitation-evapotranspiration-index,standardized-precipitation-index},
  language = {en},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:z-XX7445H2},
  number = {7}
}

@article{pasiniAttributionRecentTemperature2017,
  title = {Attribution of Recent Temperature Behaviour Reassessed by a Neural-Network Method},
  author = {Pasini, Antonello and Racca, Paolo and Amendola, Stefano and Cartocci, Giorgio and Cassardo, Claudio},
  year = {2017},
  month = dec,
  volume = {7},
  issn = {2045-2322},
  doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-18011-8},
  abstract = {Attribution studies on recent global warming by Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles converge in showing the fundamental role of anthropogenic forcings as primary drivers of temperature in the last half century. However, despite their differences, all these models pertain to the same dynamical approach and come from a common ancestor, so that their very similar results in attribution studies are not surprising and cannot be considered as a clear proof of robustness of the results themselves. Thus, here we adopt a completely different, non-dynamical, data-driven and fully nonlinear approach to the attribution problem. By means of neural network (NN) modelling, and analysing the last 160 years, we perform attribution experiments and find that the strong increase in global temperature of the last half century may be attributed basically to anthropogenic forcings (with details on their specific contributions), while the Sun considerably influences the period 1910-1975. Furthermore, the role of sulphate aerosols and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for better catching interannual to decadal temperature variability is clarified. Sensitivity analyses to forcing changes are also performed. The NN outcomes both corroborate our previous knowledge from GCMs and give new insight into the relative contributions of external forcings and internal variability to climate.},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14551513,anthropogenic-changes,array-of-factors,artificial-neural-networks,atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation,black-carbon,climate,climate-change,climate-projections,ghg,global-scale,global-warming,model-comparison,multiplicity,solar-activity,solar-radiation,sulphates,temperature},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14551513},
  number = {1}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kass_situ_2017,
	title = {In situ nuclear magnetic resonance response of permafrost and active layer soil in boreal and tundra ecosystems},
	volume = {11},
	issn = {1994-0416},
	shorttitle = {In situ nuclear magnetic resonance response of permafrost and active layer soil in boreal and tundra ecosystems},
	url = {://WOS:000417944800001},
	doi = {10.5194/tc-11-2943-2017},
	abstract = {Characterization of permafrost, particularly warm and near-surface permafrost which can contain significant liquid water, is critical to understanding complex interrelationships with climate change, ecosystems, and disturbances such as wildfires. Understanding the vulnerability and resilience of permafrost requires an interdisciplinary approach, relying on (for example) geophysical investigations, ecological characterization, direct observations, remote sensing, and more. As part of a multiyear investigation into the impacts of wildfires on permafrost, we have collected in situ measurements of the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) response of the active layer and permafrost in a variety of soil conditions, types, and saturations. In this paper, we summarize the NMR data and present quantitative relationships between active layer and permafrost liquid water content and pore sizes and show the efficacy of borehole NMR (bNMR) to permafrost studies. Through statistical analyses and synthetic freezing simulations, we also demonstrate that borehole NMR is sensitive to the nucleation of ice within soil pore spaces.},
	language = {English},
	number = {6},
	journal = {Cryosphere},
	author = {Kass, M. A. and Irons, T. P. and Minsley, B. J. and Pastick, N. J. and Brown, D. R. N. and Wylie, B. K.},
	month = dec,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Geology, Physical Geography, carbon, alaska, climate-change, surface, nmr, regions, thermokarst, unfrozen water},
	pages = {2943--2955}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{chen_contributions_2017,
	title = {Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in {North} {America} from 1990 to 2012},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {0886-6236},
	shorttitle = {Contributions of wildland fire to terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in {North} {America} from 1990 to 2012},
	url = {://WOS:000405103200009},
	doi = {10.1002/2016gb005548},
	abstract = {Burn area and the frequency of extreme fire events have been increasing during recent decades in North America, and this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century. While many aspects of the North American carbon budget have been intensively studied, the net contribution of fire disturbance to the overall net carbon flux at the continental scale remains uncertain. Based on national scale, spatially explicit and long-term fire data, along with the improved model parameterization in a process-based ecosystem model, we simulated the impact of fire disturbance on both direct carbon emissions and net terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance in North America. Fire-caused direct carbon emissions were 106.55 +/- 15.98 Tg C/yr during 1990-2012; however, the net ecosystem carbon balance associated with fire was -26.09 +/- 5.22 Tg C/yr, indicating that most of the emitted carbon was resequestered by the terrestrial ecosystem. Direct carbon emissions showed an increase in Alaska and Canada during 1990-2012 as compared to prior periods due to more extreme fire events, resulting in a large carbon source from these two regions. Among biomes, the largest carbon source was found to be from the boreal forest, primarily due to large reductions in soil organic matter during, and with slower recovery after, fire events. The interactions between fire and environmental factors reduced the fire-caused ecosystem carbon source. Fire disturbance only caused a weak carbon source as compared to the best estimate terrestrial carbon sink in North America owing to the long-term legacy effects of historical burn area coupled with fast ecosystem recovery during 1990-2012.},
	language = {English},
	number = {5},
	journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
	author = {Chen, G. S. and Hayes, D. J. and McGuire, A. D.},
	month = may,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, Geology, biomass, united-states, storage, emissions, climate-change, balance, boreal forests, wildfire, canada, global land-cover, Meteorology \& Atmospheric, Sciences},
	pages = {878--900}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{santora_persistence_2017,
	title = {Persistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem},
	volume = {27},
	issn = {1051-0761},
	shorttitle = {Persistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem},
	url = {://WOS:000395634300019},
	doi = {10.1002/eap.1466},
	abstract = {Human impacts (e.g., fishing, pollution, and shipping) on pelagic ecosystems are increasing, causing concerns about stresses on marine food webs. Maintaining predator-prey relationships through protection of pelagic hotspots is crucial for conservation and management of living marine resources. Biotic components of pelagic, plankton-based, ecosystems exhibit high variability in abundance in time and space (i.e., extreme patchiness), requiring investigation of persistence of abundance across trophic levels to resolve trophic hotspots. Using a 26-yr record of indicators for primary production, secondary (zooplankton and larval fish), and tertiary (seabirds) consumers, we show distributions of trophic hotspots in the southern California Current Ecosystem result from interactions between a strong upwelling center and a productive retention zone with enhanced nutrients, which concentrate prey and predators across multiple trophic levels. Trophic hotspots also overlap with human impacts, including fisheries extraction of coastal pelagic and groundfish species, as well as intense commercial shipping traffic. Spatial overlap of trophic hotspots with fisheries and shipping increases vulnerability of the ecosystem to localized depletion of forage fish, ship strikes on marine mammals, and pollution. This study represents a critical step toward resolving pelagic areas of high conservation interest for planktonic ecosystems and may serve as a model for other ocean regions where ecosystem-based management and marine spatial planning of pelagic ecosystems is warranted.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Ecological Applications},
	author = {Santora, J. A. and Sydeman, W. J. and Schroeder, I. D. and Field, J. C. and Miller, R. R. and Wells, B. K.},
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, anchovy, biological hotspots, california, climate-change, cumulative human impacts, current system, dynamic ocean, fisheries, fisheries management, food web, krill, nearshore retention, northern, oil, primary productivity, protected areas, retention, sardine, seabirds, shipping, southern california current, spatial management, upwelling},
	pages = {560--574}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{marazzi_algal_2017,
	title = {Algal richness and life-history strategies are influenced by hydrology and phosphorus in two major subtropical wetlands},
	volume = {62},
	issn = {0046-5070},
	shorttitle = {Algal richness and life-history strategies are influenced by hydrology and phosphorus in two major subtropical wetlands},
	url = {://WOS:000393793100005},
	doi = {10.1111/fwb.12866},
	abstract = {We explored controls of algal taxon richness (hereafter richness) in complex and hydrologically dynamic flood-pulsed wetlands by comparing results from independent studies in two globally important subtropical wetlands: the Okavango Delta (Botswana) and the Florida Everglades (U.S.A.). In both wetlands, the flood pulse hydrology is regulated by distinct wet and dry seasons, and creates floodplain landscapes with heterogeneous habitats; algal growth is limited by phosphorus (P); and water uses threaten ecosystem function. To inform future comparisons of algal richness and distribution patterns, we assessed the role of hydrology and P as key controls of richness, and identified indicator taxa of desiccation disturbance and P scarcity in these wetlands under increasing hydrological, nutrient, and habitat changes. We used the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, and the species-energy theory to explain algal richness patterns, and the competitive, stress-tolerant, ruderal (CSR) framework to classify indicator taxa. We collected algal samples, environmental data and information expected to influence community structure (water depth, relative depth change, P concentrations, hydroperiod and habitat type) over several years at sites representing a broad range of environmental characteristics. To account for sample size differences, we estimated algal richness by determining the asymptote of taxon accumulation curves. Using multiple regression analysis, we assessed if and how water depth, depth change, P, hydroperiod, and habitat type influence richness within each wetland. We then compared the strength of the relationships between these controlling features and richness between wetlands. Using indicator species analysis on relative abundance data, we classified C, S and R indicator taxa associated with shorter/longer hydroperiod, and lower/higher P concentrations. In either wetland, we did not observe the negative unimodal relationship between site-specific richness and water depth change that was expected following the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. It is possible that this relationship exists at more highly resolved temporal scales than the semi-annual to annual scales hypothesised here. However, as nutrient flows and algal habitats depend on these wetlands' flood pulse, maintaining the Okavango's natural pulse, and increasing freshwater flow in the Everglades would help protect these wetlands' algal diversity. Chlorophyta richness (Okavango), and total, Bacillariophyta, Chlorophyta and cyanobacteria richness (Everglades) increased with higher P concentrations, as per species-energy theory. In the Okavango, we classified 6 C and 49 R indicator taxa (e.g. many planktonic Chlorophyta), and in the Everglades, 15 C, 1 S and 9 R taxa (e.g. benthic Bacillariophyta and planktonic/benthic Chlorophyta), and one stress- and disturbance-tolerant cyanobacterium species. Our results offer baseline information for future comparisons of richness, and abundance of C, S and R indicator taxa in subtropical wetlands; this can be used to quantify how algal communities may respond to potential changes in hydrology and P due to water diversion, anthropogenic nutrient loads, and climate change. Examining microhabitat heterogeneity, nitrogen and light availability, and grazing pressure in such wetlands would further illuminate patch-scale controls of richness and life-history strategy distribution in algal communities.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Freshwater Biology},
	author = {Marazzi, L. and Gaiser, E. E. and Jones, V. J. and Tobias, F. A. C. and Mackay, A. W.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {biodiversity, algae, Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, phosphorus, hydrology, water chemistry, florida everglades, species-diversity, climate-change, Marine \& Freshwater Biology, biogeographical notes, diversity relationships, floodplains, intermediate disturbance, okavango desmids zygnematophyceae, phytoplankton communities, subtropical wetlands, temporary},
	pages = {274--290}
}

@article{natureMaximumClimateAmbition2016,
  title = {The Maximum Climate Ambition Needs a Firm Research Backing},
  author = {{Nature}},
  year = {2016},
  month = sep,
  volume = {537},
  pages = {585--586},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/537585b},
  abstract = {We need to know what the 1.5 \textdegree C warming target will involve -- even if we don't reach it.

[Excerpt] [...] The 2015 Paris climate agreement commits governments to keeping average global surface temperatures to between 1.5\,\textdegree C and 2\,\textdegree C above the preindustrial level. But warming has already passed the 1-degree mark, and some estimates suggest that even if current commitments are fully implemented, they would allow temperatures to rise nearly 3\,\textdegree C. If the 2-degree goal seems implausible, given current politics, 1.5\,\textdegree C is very nearly inconceivable.

[] Nevertheless, countries calling for more aggressive action -- often those that have contributed the least to the problem and now have the most to lose -- pushed for the 1.5\,\textdegree C IPCC assessment. The deadlines are tight: scientists around the world now have roughly a year to run their models and submit papers to bolster the scarce body of literature surrounding the 1.5-degree goal. The IPCC will present its assessment in 2018, just before UN negotiators hold their first major meeting to assess progress under the Paris agreement and presumably to discuss ways to hasten action. [...]},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14148626,anthropic-feedback,anthropocene,anthropogenic-impacts,climate-change,environmental-policy,global-scale,global-warming,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14148626},
  number = {7622}
}

@article{dosioProjectionsClimateChange2016,
  title = {Projections of Climate Change Indices of Temperature and Precipitation from an Ensemble of Bias-Adjusted High-Resolution {{EURO}}-{{CORDEX}} Regional Climate Models},
  author = {Dosio, Alessandro},
  year = {2016},
  month = may,
  volume = {121},
  pages = {2015JD024411-5511},
  issn = {2169-897X},
  doi = {10.1002/2015jd024411},
  abstract = {Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11\textdegree ) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices have been calculated for the present (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) climate. Indices include absolute-thresholds indices, percentile-based indices, and indices based on the duration of an event. Results show that absolute-threshold indices are largely affected by bias adjustment, as they depend strongly on both the present mean climate value (usually largely biased in the original RCMs) and its shift under climate change. The change of percentile-based indices is less affected by bias adjustment, as that of indices based on the duration of an event (e.g., consecutive dry days or heat waves) although the present climate value can differ between original and bias-adjusted results. Indices like R95ptot (the total amount of precipitation larger than the 95th reference percentile) are largely affected by bias adjustment, although, when analyzing an ensemble of RCMs, the differences are usually smaller than, or comparable to, the intermodel variability.},
  journal = {J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14053888,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,climate-change,ipcc,ipcc-scenarios,precipitation,temperature},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14053888},
  number = {10}
}

@article{tollefsonClimatechangeHiatusDisappears2015,
  title = {Climate-Change 'hiatus' Disappears with New Data},
  author = {Tollefson, Jeff},
  year = {2015},
  month = jun,
  issn = {1476-4687},
  doi = {10.1038/nature.2015.17700},
  abstract = {US agency's updated temperature records suggest that global warming continues apace.

[Excerpt] An apparent pause in global warming might have been a temporary mirage, according to recent analysis. Global average temperatures have continued to rise throughout the first part of the 21st century, researchers report on 5 June in Science1.

[\textbackslash n] That finding, which contradicts the 2013 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is based on an update of the global temperature records maintained by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The previous version of the NOAA dataset had showed less warming during the first decade of the millennium.

[\textbackslash n] Researchers revised the NOAA dataset to correct for known biases in sea-surface temperature records and to incorporate data from new land-based monitoring stations that extend into the Arctic -- an area where observations are sparse. The updated NOAA dataset also includes observations from 2013 and 2014; the latter ranked as the warmest year on record. [...]},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13640209,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,climate-change,data-uncertainty,global-warming,modelling,temperature},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13640209}
}

@article{wilson_population_2015,
	title = {Population turnover, habitat use and microclimate at the contracting range margin of a butterfly},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {1366-638X},
	doi = {10/f685vp},
	abstract = {Climate change is expected to drive patterns of extinction and colonisation that are correlated with geographic gradients in the climate, such as latitude and elevation. However, local population dynamics also depend on the fine-scale effects of vegetation and topography on resource availability and microclimate. Understanding how this fine-scale variation influences population survival in the face of changing climatic favourability could provide clues for adapting conservation to climate change. Here, we document a long-term decline of the butterfly Parnassius apollo in the Sierra de Guadarrama mountain range in central Spain, and examine recent population turnover and habitat use by the species to make inferences about its ecology and conservation. A decline since the 1960s throughout the elevation range suggests a regional deterioration in favourability for the species. Since 2006, local habitat quality has been the main correlate of population persistence, with populations that persisted from 2006 to 2012 associated with high availability of larval host plants. At a finer resolution, the larval distribution in a network of suitable habitat in 2011 and 2012 was most closely related to bare ground cover. Thus, although slope, aspect and elevation lead to considerable variation in microhabitat temperatures during the period of P. apollo larval development, vegetation structure appears to have been the most critical factor for local habitat use and population persistence. The results show that site selection and management retain key roles in conservation despite the broad-scale effects of environmental change.},
	language = {English},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Journal of Insect Conservation},
	author = {Wilson, Robert J. and Bennie, Jonathan and Lawson, Callum R. and Pearson, David and Ortuzar-Ugarte, Gorka and Gutierrez, David},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {climate-change, dynamics, variability, shifts, distributions, insect, boundaries, Connectivity, Extirpation, Habitat heterogeneity, lepidoptera, Metapopulation, papilionidae, parnassius-apollo, Range   limit, Range shift},
	pages = {205--216},
}

@article{leePacificOriginAbrupt2015,
  title = {Pacific Origin of the Abrupt Increase in {{Indian Ocean}} Heat Content during the Warming Hiatus},
  author = {Lee, Sang-Ki and Park, Wonsun and Baringer, Molly O. and Gordon, Arnold L. and Huber, Bruce and Liu, Yanyun},
  year = {2015},
  month = jun,
  volume = {8},
  pages = {445--449},
  issn = {1752-0894},
  doi = {10.1038/ngeo2438},
  abstract = {Global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century1, 2, but the net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere continues to suggest an increasingly warming planet. This apparent contradiction has been reconciled by an anomalous heat flux into the ocean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, induced by a shift towards a La Ni\~na-like state with cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past decade or so. A significant portion of the heat missing from the atmosphere is therefore expected to be stored in the Pacific Ocean. However, in situ hydrographic records indicate that Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing9. Here, we analyse observations along with simulations from a global ocean-sea ice model to track the pathway of heat. We find that the enhanced heat uptake by the Pacific Ocean has been compensated by an increased heat transport from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, carried by the Indonesian throughflow. As a result, Indian Ocean heat content has increased abruptly, which accounts for more than 70\,\% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 700 m during the past decade. We conclude that the Indian Ocean has become increasingly important in modulating global climate variability.},
  journal = {Nature Geosci},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13618538,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,global-warming,heat-storage,indian-ocean,oceans},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13618538},
  number = {6}
}

@article{franksEvolutionaryPlasticResponses2014,
  title = {Evolutionary and Plastic Responses to Climate Change in Terrestrial Plant Populations},
  author = {Franks, Steven J. and Weber, Jennifer J. and Aitken, Sally N.},
  year = {2014},
  month = jan,
  volume = {7},
  pages = {123--139},
  issn = {1752-4571},
  doi = {10.1111/eva.12112},
  abstract = {As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species' life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change.},
  journal = {Evolutionary Applications},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14310132,climate-change,complexity,limiting-factor,non-linearity,phenotypes-vs-genotypes,phenotypic-plasticity,trade-offs,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14310132},
  number = {1}
}

@article{schiermeierIPCCReportFire2014,
  title = {{{IPCC}} Report under Fire},
  author = {Schiermeier, Quirin},
  year = {2014},
  month = apr,
  volume = {508},
  pages = {298},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/508298a},
  abstract = {Critics attack panel's lack of specific guidance on how countries should lower emissions. [Excerpt] [...] The document, a policy summary prepared by Working Group III of the IPCC, is the third instalment of the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. It follows reports on the science of climate and the impacts of climate change, released in the past few months. Compiled by hundreds of lead and reviewing authors over several years, the report warns that without substantial policy and technology changes, the world is heading towards dangerous temperature rises. Its focus is therefore on the technological and economic options for stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations at acceptable levels. [...] The report, released at a packed press conference in a Berlin hotel, details how annual emissions have increased from 27 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 equivalent in 1970 to 49\,Gt in 2010 (see 'Who emits what?'). Emissions may now have reached more than 52\,Gt per year. The report adds that to have a 50\,\% chance of keeping the global surface-temperature increase below the UN target of 2\,\textdegree C, humans must not release more than an additional 1,550\,Gt of greenhouse gases before 2100. At current rates, that limit will be exceeded before 2050.

The working group also warns that developed countries' emissions targets for 2020 -- agreed at a 2010 climate summit in Cancun, Mexico -- are inconsistent with the 2\,\textdegree C ceiling, which was set at the same summit. '' Meeting this goal would require further substantial reductions beyond 2020,'' the report finds. 

The IPCC also acknowledges that the renewable-energy industry is making substantial gains in performance and cost reductions. But it notes that growing global energy demand and an increase in coal's share of the global fuel mix in recent years threaten to thwart mitigation efforts. [...] Some researchers have long argued for a more pragmatic and diversified approach to climate change. For example, one group wrote in a policy paper in 2010 that fostering technological progress while focusing on poverty reduction -- an estimated 1.5 billion people have no access to electricity -- might ultimately prove more effective than international treaties such as the expired Kyoto Protocol on climate change (G. Prins et al. The Hartwell Paper; LSE, 2010). [...] Most critics agree that the IPCC, despite not having a remit to prescribe policies, has managed to strengthen the links between science and politics. '' The process forces policy-makers to really engage with the science underlying climate change''},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13140128,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,complexity,environmental-policy,ipcc,mitigation,multi-stakeholder-decision-making,science-based-decision-making,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13140128},
  number = {7496}
}

@article{yang500yearTreeringRecord2014,
  title = {A 3,500-Year Tree-Ring Record of Annual Precipitation on the Northeastern {{Tibetan Plateau}}},
  author = {Yang, Bao and Qin, Chun and Wang, Jianglin and He, Minhui and Melvin, Thomas M. and Osborn, Timothy J. and Briffa, Keith R.},
  year = {2014},
  month = feb,
  volume = {111},
  pages = {2903--2908},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1319238111},
  abstract = {[Significance] 

This paper describes the production and climatic interpretation of a tree-ring width chronology that is currently the longest, absolutely dated series produced for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and one of the longest in the world. The method of chronology construction enables comparison of variations in precipitation totals over long timescales as well as shorter periods. Precipitation in this region during the last 50 years has been historically high -- likely higher than for any equivalent length period in at least 3,500 years, even when considering the chronology and interpretational uncertainty. Notable dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. [Abstract] 

An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13072253,china,climate-change,field-measurements,forest-resources,himalayan-region,paleo-climate,past-observations,precipitation,temperature,tibet},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13072253},
  number = {8}
}

@article{averillMycorrhizamediatedCompetitionPlants2014,
  title = {Mycorrhiza-Mediated Competition between Plants and Decomposers Drives Soil Carbon Storage},
  author = {Averill, Colin and Turner, Benjamin L. and Finzi, Adrien C.},
  year = {2014},
  month = jan,
  volume = {505},
  pages = {543--545},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature12901},
  abstract = {Soil contains more carbon than the atmosphere and vegetation combined. Understanding the mechanisms controlling the accumulation and stability of soil carbon is critical to predicting the Earth's future climate. Recent studies suggest that decomposition of soil organic matter is often limited by nitrogen availability to microbes and that plants, via their fungal symbionts, compete directly with free-living decomposers for nitrogen. Ectomycorrhizal and ericoid mycorrhizal (EEM) fungi produce nitrogen-degrading enzymes, allowing them greater access to organic nitrogen sources than arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. This leads to the theoretical prediction that soil carbon storage is greater in ecosystems dominated by EEM fungi than in those dominated by AM fungi. Using global data sets, we show that soil in ecosystems dominated by EEM-associated plants contains 70\,\% more carbon per unit nitrogen than soil in ecosystems dominated by AM-associated plants. The effect of mycorrhizal type on soil carbon is independent of, and of far larger consequence than, the effects of net primary production, temperature, precipitation and soil clay content. Hence the effect of mycorrhizal type on soil carbon content holds at the global scale. This finding links the functional traits of mycorrhizal fungi to carbon storage at ecosystem-to-global scales, suggesting that plant-decomposer competition for nutrients exerts a fundamental control over the terrestrial carbon cycle.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12903789,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-stock,climate-change,forest-resources,mycorrhizal-fungi,soil-carbon,soil-resources,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12903789},
  number = {7484}
}

@article{emanuelDownscalingCMIP5Climate2013,
  title = {Downscaling {{CMIP5}} Climate Models Shows Increased Tropical Cyclone Activity over the 21st Century},
  author = {Emanuel, Kerry A.},
  year = {2013},
  month = jul,
  volume = {110},
  pages = {12219--12224},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1301293110},
  abstract = {A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12594519,atmosphere,climate-change,climate-extremes,climate-projections,cyclone,global-scale,meteorology,windstorm},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12594519},
  number = {30}
}

@article{carnicerLargescaleRecruitmentLimitation2013,
  title = {Large-Scale Recruitment Limitation in {{Mediterranean}} Pines: The Role of {{Quercus}} Ilex and Forest Successional Advance as Key Regional Drivers},
  author = {Carnicer, Jofre and Coll, Marta and Pons, Xavier and Ninyerola, Miquel and Vayreda, Jordi and Pe{\~n}uelas, Josep},
  year = {2013},
  month = oct,
  pages = {n/a},
  issn = {1466-8238},
  doi = {10.1111/geb.12111},
  abstract = {Aim Large-scale patterns of limitations in tree recruitment remain poorly described in the Mediterranean Basin, and this information is required to assess the impacts of global warming on forests. Here, we unveil the existence of opposite trends of recruitment limitation between the dominant genera Quercus and Pinus on a large scale and identify the key ecological drivers of these diverging trends. Location Spain Methods We gathered data from the Spanish National Forest inventory to assess recruitment trends for the dominant species (Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinea, Pinus pinaster, Pinus nigra, Pinus sylvestris, Pinus uncinata, Quercus suber, Quercus ilex, Quercus petraea, Quercus robur, Quercus faginea and Quercus pyrenaica). We assessed the direct and indirect drivers of recruitment by applying Bayesian structural equation modelling techniques. Results Severe limitations in recruitment were observed across extensive areas for all Pinus species studied, with recruitment failure affecting 54-71\,\% of the surveyed plots. In striking contrast, Quercus species expanded into 41\,\% of the plots surveyed compared to only 10\,\% for Pinus and had a lower local recruitment failure (29\,\% of Quercus localities compared to 63\,\% for Pinus species). Bayesian structural equation models highlighted the key role of the presence of Q.\,ilex saplings and the increase in the basal area of Q.\,ilex in limiting recruitment in five Pinus species. The recruitment of P.\,sylvestris and P.\,nigra showed the most negative trends and was negatively associated with the impacts of fire. Main conclusions This study identified Q.\,ilex, the most widespread species in this area, as a key driver of recruitment shifts on a large scale, negatively affecting most pine species with the advance of forest succession. These results highlight that the future expansion/contraction of Q.\,ilex stands with ongoing climate change will be a key process indirectly controlling the demographic responses of Pinus species in the Mediterranean Basin.},
  journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12651320,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-unsustainable-species-distribution,climate-change,ecosystem-invasibility,forest-resources,global-warming,invasive-species,mediterranean-region,pinus-halepensis,pinus-nigra,pinus-pinaster,pinus-pinea,pinus-sylvestris,pinus-uncinata,plantation,potential-habitat,quercus-faginea,quercus-ilex,quercus-petraea,quercus-pyrenaica,quercus-robur,quercus-suber,spain,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12651320}
}

@article{bernsteinLungsWarmingWorld2013,
  title = {Lungs in a Warming World: Climate Change and Respiratory Health},
  author = {Bernstein, Aaron S. and Rice, Mary B.},
  year = {2013},
  month = may,
  volume = {143},
  pages = {1455--1459},
  issn = {0012-3692},
  doi = {10.1378/chest.12-2384},
  abstract = {Climate change is a health threat no less consequential than cigarette smoking. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially CO2, in the earth's atmosphere have already warmed the planet substantially, causing more severe and prolonged heat waves, temperature variability, air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods, all of which put respiratory health at risk. These changes in climate and air quality substantially increase respiratory morbidity and mortality for patients with common chronic lung diseases such as asthma and COPD and other serious lung diseases. Physicians have a vital role in addressing climate change, just as they did with tobacco, by communicating how climate change is a serious, but remediable, hazard to their patients.},
  journal = {Chest},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14686093,acrolein,air-pollution,benzene,climate-change,forest-fires,forest-resources,formaldehyde,global-warming,heatwaves,human-diseases,human-health,humidity,nitrogen,ozone,particulate-matter,respiration,smoke,temperature,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14686093},
  number = {5}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@inproceedings{ citeulike:12378515,
  abstract = {The {JRC} {PESETA} {II} study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic {CGE} model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand, river floods, sea-level rise, forest fires, transport infrastructure).
The results show that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across {EU} regions, with strong geographical asymmetries, depending on the specific impact category and climate future. For instance, Northern Central Europe has negative impacts mainly related to sea level rise and river floods while Southern Europe is affected mainly by agriculture. The study also explores the significance of transboundary effects (where climate change causes economic damages outside the region directly affected).},
  author = {Ciscar, J. C. and Feyen, L. and Soria, A. and Lavalle, C. and Perry, M. and Raes, F. and Nemry, F. and Demirel, H. and Rozsai, M. and Dosio, A. and Donatelli, M. and Srivastava, A. and Fumagalli, D. and Zucchini, A. and Shrestha, S. and Ciaian, P. and Himics, M. and Van Doorslaer, B. and Barrios, S. and Ib́{a}ñez, N. and Rojas, R. and Bianchi, A. and Dowling, P. and Camia, A. and Libert̀{a}, G. and San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. and de Rigo, D. and Caudullo, G. and Barredo, J. I. and Paci, D. and Pycroft, J. and Saveyn, B. and Van Regemorter, D. and Revesz, T. and Mubareka, S. and Baranzelli, C. and Rocha Gomes, C. and Lung, T. and Ibarreta, D.},
  booktitle = {Impacts World 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects},
  citeulike-article-id = {12378515},
  citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
  citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2312/pik.2013.001},
  citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://scholar.google.it/scholar?cluster=3554762681150763424},
  citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2312/pik.2013.001},
  citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
  doi = {10.2312/pik.2013.001},
  keywords = {anthropogenic-impacts, assessment, climate, climate-change, economic-impacts, economics, europe, european-union, integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management, integration-techniques, multiauthor},
  location = {Postdam, Germany},
  month = {May},
  organization = {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. V.},
  pages = {87--96},
  posted-at = {2013-05-30 01:23:43},
  priority = {2},
  title = {Climate impacts in Europe: an integrated economic assessment},
  url = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
  year = {2013}
}

@article{andersenKeyPhraseTrends2013,
  title = {Key Phrase Trends in Climate Change Research and Communication},
  author = {Andersen, Theresa},
  year = {2013},
  volume = {6},
  pages = {442835+},
  abstract = {Summary.

The media plays an important role in communicating climate change science to the public. Due to various agendas or misinterpretation, the media does not always report research as intended by the scientific source. It has been suggested that terminology itself influences perceptions of climate issues. In this study, newspapers, peer-reviewed research articles and National Science Foundation (NSF) grants were analyzed for trends in the key phrases 'climate change' (CC) and 'global warming' (GW). CC is arguably the more meaningful term because it facilitates communication between scientists, the media, and the general public and it conveys that the range of risks associated with a warming climate are not limited to temperature alone. Results indicate that the media preferentially uses the term GW while research tends to use CC. Three high-circulation newspapers exhibit similar trends in usage over time and have recently increased usage of CC. All data sources indicate climate change discourse peaked around 2008 to 2011, however, this trend may be a result of the discussion turning from general climate change to specific risks. Additional key phrase searches such as 'glacier melt' and 'sea level rise' may yield different results.},
  journal = {IEEE Earthzine},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12214056,climate-change,global-warming,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication,terminology},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12214056},
  number = {1}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{citeulike:11354245,
    abstract = {As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index ({FDSI}) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing {AD} 1000–2007. The {FDSI} is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82\% of the {FDSI} variability. Correspondence between the {FDSI} and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the {FDSI} as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.},
    author = {Park Williams, A. and Allen, Craig D. and Macalady, Alison K. and Griffin, Daniel and Woodhouse, Connie A. and Meko, David M. and Swetnam, Thomas W. and Rauscher, Sara A. and Seager, Richard and Grissino-Mayer, Henri D. and Dean, Jeffrey S. and Cook, Edward R. and Gangodagamage, Chandana and Cai, Michael and McDowell, Nate G.},
    citeulike-article-id = {11354245},
    citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
    citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
    day = {30},
    doi = {10.1038/nclimate1693},
    issn = {1758-678X},
    journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
    keywords = {climate-change, climate-projections, droughts, forest-resources, global-warming, temperature},
    month = sep,
    number = {3},
    pages = {292--297},
    posted-at = {2012-10-02 23:14:36},
    priority = {2},
    publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
    title = {Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality},
    url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1693},
    volume = {3},
    year = {2013}
}

@inproceedings{estreguilIntegratedModelingLarge2013,
  title = {Integrated Modeling of Large Scale Forest Patterns and Connectivity of Protected Areas and Relevance in the Context of Ecosystem Services and Climate Change},
  booktitle = {{{FORECOM}}: {{Forest}} Cover Changes in Mountainous Regions - Drivers, Trajectories and Implications},
  author = {Estreguil, Christine and Caudullo, Giovanni and {de Rigo}, Daniele and Whitmore, Ceri and {San-Miguel-Ayanz}, Jes{\'u}s},
  year = {2013},
  publisher = {{Institute of Geography and Spatial Management of the Jagiellonian University}},
  abstract = {The mitigation of ecosystem fragmentation is important in Target 2 of the new European Biodiversity strategy to 2020, aiming at the maintenance and enhancement of ecosystem services (e.g. habitat provision, disturbance regulation, climate change mitigation). Better knowledge on patterns, fragmentation processes and functional connectivity of focal ecosystem is needed within and between protected areas as well as in the wider country side.  An overview of JRC activities is given on tools, models and applications for a European-wide improved and harmonised reporting on forest patterns and connectivity (fragmentation). The recently available generic, reproducible and integrated characterisation of patterns based on three models and a set of indices is presented. National profiles of forest pattern in the wider country side are shown on forest morphological shapes, fragmentation landscape pattern, edge interfaces and connectivity. The connectivity of Natura2000 forest sites is then computed in few countries (Spain, Belgium, Germany and Poland), and results allow for comparison of the connectivity index value across countries and the identification of key-sites and gaps in connectivity. The presentation finally introduces the dedicated pattern web map viewer which is now available from the European Forest Data Centre (EFDAC) for data viewing and query.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12238517,climate-change,connectivity,ecosystem-services,environmental-modelling,forest-resources,integrated-modelling,integration-techniques,landscape-modelling,spatial-pattern},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12238517}
}

@article{hanewinkelClimateChangeMay2012,
  title = {Climate Change May Cause Severe Loss in the Economic Value of {{European}} Forest Land},
  author = {Hanewinkel, Marc and Cullmann, Dominik A. and Schelhaas, Mart-Jan and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and Zimmermann, Niklaus E.},
  year = {2012},
  month = sep,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {203--207},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1687},
  abstract = {European forests, covering more than 2\,million\,km2 or 32\,\% of the land surface1, are to a large extent intensively managed and support an important timber industry. Climate change is expected to strongly affect tree species distribution within these forests2, 3. Climate and land use are undergoing rapid changes at present4, with initial range shifts already visible5. However, discussions on the consequences of biome shifts have concentrated on ecological issues6. Here we show that forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation may have severe economic consequences. On the basis of our model results, the expected value of European forest land will decrease owing to the decline of economically valuable species in the absence of effective countermeasures. We found that by 2100 -- depending on the interest rate and climate scenario applied -- this loss varies between 14 and 50\,\% (mean: 28\,\% for an interest rate of 2\%) of the present value of forest land in Europe, excluding Russia, and may total several hundred billion Euros. Our model shows that -- depending on different realizations of three climate scenarios -- by 2100, between 21 and 60\,\% (mean: 34\%) of European forest lands will be suitable only for a Mediterranean oak forest type with low economic returns for forest owners and the timber industry and reduced carbon sequestration.},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11401639,climate-change,economic-impacts,europe,forest-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11401639},
  number = {3}
}

@article{barnoskyApproachingStateShift2012,
  title = {Approaching a State Shift in {{Earth}}/'s Biosphere},
  author = {Barnosky, Anthony D. and Hadly, Elizabeth A. and Bascompte, Jordi and Berlow, Eric L. and Brown, James H. and Fortelius, Mikael and Getz, Wayne M. and Harte, John and Hastings, Alan and Marquet, Pablo A. and Martinez, Neo D. and Mooers, Arne and Roopnarine, Peter and Vermeij, Geerat and Williams, John W. and Gillespie, Rosemary and Kitzes, Justin and Marshall, Charles and Matzke, Nicholas and Mindell, David P. and Revilla, Eloy and Smith, Adam B.},
  year = {2012},
  month = jun,
  volume = {486},
  pages = {52--58},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature11018},
  abstract = {Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale  tipping point  highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10753680,climate-change,global-scale,irreversibility,multiauthor,state-shift,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-10753680},
  number = {7401}
}

@article{merianSizemediatedClimategrowthRelationships2011,
  title = {Size-Mediated Climate-Growth Relationships in Temperate Forests: A Multi-Species Analysis},
  author = {M{\'e}rian, Pierre and Lebourgeois, Fran{\c c}ois},
  year = {2011},
  month = apr,
  volume = {261},
  pages = {1382--1391},
  issn = {0378-1127},
  doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2011.01.019},
  abstract = {In most dendrochronological studies, climate-growth relationships are established on dominant trees to minimize non-climatic signals. However, response to environmental factors may be affected by tree-size, which begs the question of the representativeness of dominant trees on the stand level. To highlight the variations in climate-growth relationships among sizes and species, under a wide range of ecological conditions (climate and soil properties), 61 pure even-aged stands were sampled across France. At each stand, two tree-ring chronologies were established from 10 big- to 10 small-diameter trees. Our objectives were, (1) to assess variations in climate sensitivity between the two size-diameter classes, and (2) to investigate the role of species and ecological conditions on these variations. The climate-growth relationships were evaluated from 122 tree-ring chronologies (1~220 trees) through extreme growth years and correlation function analyses. Sensitivity to climate of shade-intolerant and moderately shade-tolerant species (Picea abies (L.) Karst., Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) remained constant between the size-diameter classes for both temperature and hydric balance, while the shade-tolerant species Abies alba Mill. and Fagus sylvatica L. displayed significant differences, with larger trees being more sensitive to summer drought than smaller trees. This difference increased with increasing climatic xericity. Our results suggest that, for shade-tolerant species, (1) big trees could be more sensitive to climatic change especially under xeric climate, and (2) future tree ring studies should include trees stratified by size to produce unbiased estimation of sensitivity to climate. \^a\textordmasculine{} We investigated the tree-size effect on sensitivity to climate. \^a\textordmasculine{} Study was led on a multi-species network at broad scale. \^a\textordmasculine{} Only shade-tolerant species display changes in sensitivity among size-classes. \^a\textordmasculine{} Increasing local xericity induces increasing differences in sensitivity.},
  journal = {Forest Ecology and Management},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8837665,abies-alba,climate-change,drought-tolerance,droughts,fagus-sylvatica,forest-resources,picea-abies,pinus-sylvestris,population-growth,quercus-petraea,shade-tolerance},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8837665},
  number = {8}
}

@article{thuillerConsequencesClimateChange2011,
  title = {Consequences of Climate Change on the Tree of Life in {{Europe}}},
  author = {Thuiller, Wilfried and Lavergne, Sebastien and Roquet, Cristina and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Lafourcade, Bruno and Araujo, Miguel},
  year = {2011},
  month = feb,
  volume = {470},
  pages = {531--534},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature09705},
  abstract = {Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes1, 2, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history3, 4, 5. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8834184,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,consensus,ensemble,median,modelling,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8834184},
  number = {7335}
}

@article{pidgeonRoleSocialDecision2011,
  title = {The Role of Social and Decision Sciences in Communicating Uncertain Climate Risks},
  author = {Pidgeon, Nick and Fischhoff, Baruch},
  year = {2011},
  month = mar,
  volume = {1},
  pages = {35--41},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1080},
  abstract = {A major challenge facing climate scientists is explaining to non-specialists the risks and uncertainties surrounding potential changes over the coming years, decades and centuries. Although there are many guidelines for climate communication, there is little empirical evidence of their efficacy, whether for dispassionately explaining the science or for persuading people to act in more sustainable ways. Moreover, climate communication faces new challenges as assessments of climate-related changes confront uncertainty more explicitly and adopt risk-based approaches to evaluating impacts. Given its critical importance, public understanding of climate science deserves the strongest possible communications science to convey the practical implications of large, complex, uncertain physical, biological and social processes. Here, we identify the communications science that is needed to meet this challenge and the ambitious, interdisciplinary initiative that its effective application to climate science requires.},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-9089496,check-list,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-9089496},
  number = {1}
}

@article{dimitrakopoulosImpactDroughtWildland2011,
  title = {Impact of Drought on Wildland Fires in {{Greece}}: Implications of Climatic Change?},
  author = {Dimitrakopoulos, Alexandros P. and Vlahou, M. and Anagnostopoulou, Ch and Mitsopoulos, I. D.},
  year = {2011},
  month = feb,
  volume = {109},
  pages = {331--347},
  issn = {0165-0009},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0026-8},
  abstract = {An increasing trend and a statistically significant positive correlation between wildfire occurrence, area burned and drought (as expressed by the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) have been observed all over Greece, during the period 1961-1997. In the more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western Greece) the number of fires and area burned were positively correlated to both summer (SPI6\_October) and annual drought (SPI12\_September), whereas in the relatively more dry and hot regions (Southern and Central Greece) the number of fires and area burned were correlated only to summer drought. In 1978, Greece entered a period of prolonged drought, possibly as a result of the global climatic change. Data analysis of the period 1978-1997 revealed a statistically significant increase in the mean annual number of fires, the area burned and the summer and annual drought episodes in the relatively more humid and colder regions (Northern and Western) of Greece (which in the past were characterized by less fires and area burned) compared to the more dry and hot regions (Southern and Eastern Greece), which always presented high fire activity. Additionally, analyzing the two sub-periods (1961-1977, 1978-1997) separately, drought was significantly correlated only to fire occurrence during the years 1961-1977, whereas during 1978-1997 drought was significantly correlated mainly to area burned. It became obvious that drought episodes, although they are not solely responsible for fire occurrence and area burned, they exert an increasingly significant impact on wildfire activity in Greece.},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8944348,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,disturbances,droughts,feedback,forest-resources,natural-resources-interactions,precipitation,water-resources,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8944348},
  number = {3-4}
}

@article{evansModellingEcologicalSystems2011,
  title = {Modelling Ecological Systems in a Changing World},
  author = {Evans, Matthew R.},
  year = {2011},
  month = dec,
  volume = {367},
  pages = {181--190},
  issn = {1471-2970},
  doi = {10.1098/rstb.2011.0172},
  abstract = {The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely.},
  journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10110408,climate-change,ecology,emergent-property,environmental-modelling,extrapolation-error,forest-resources,modelling,system-of-systems},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-10110408},
  number = {1586}
}

@book{ofcommonsscienceDisclosureClimateData2010,
  title = {The Disclosure of Climate Data from the {{Climatic Research Unit}} at the {{University}} of {{East Anglia}} - {{Eighth Report}} of {{Session}} 2009-10},
  author = {{of Commons Science}, House and Committee, Technology},
  year = {2010},
  month = mar,
  publisher = {{Authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited}},
  abstract = {Summary. The disclosure of climate data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in November 2009 had the potential to damage the reputation of the climate science and the scientists involved. We believe that the focus on CRU and Professor Phil Jones, Director of CRU, in particular, has largely been misplaced. Whilst we are concerned that the disclosed e-mails suggest a blunt refusal to share scientific data and methodologies with others, we can sympathise with Professor Jones, who must have found it frustrating to handle requests for data that he knew -- or perceived -- were motivated by a desire simply to undermine his work. In the context of the sharing of data and methodologies, we consider that Professor Jones's actions were in line with common practice in the climate science community. It is not standard practice in climate science to publish the raw data and the computer code in academic papers. However, climate science is a matter of great importance and the quality of the science should be irreproachable. We therefore consider that climate scientists should take steps to make available all the data that support their work (including raw data) and full methodological workings (including the computer codes). Had both been available, many of the problems at UEA could have been avoided. We are content that the phrases such as '' trick'' or '' hiding the decline'' were colloquial terms used in private e-mails and the balance of evidence is that they were not part of a systematic attempt to mislead. Likewise the evidence that we have seen does not suggest that Professor Jones was trying to subvert the peer review process. Academics should not be criticised for making informal comments on academic papers. In the context of Freedom of Information (FOIA), much of the responsibility should lie with UEA. The disclosed e-mails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information may have been deleted, to avoid disclosure. We found prima facie evidence to suggest that the UEA found ways to support the culture at CRU of resisting disclosure of information to climate change sceptics. The failure of UEA to grasp fully the potential damage to CRU and UEA by the non-disclosure of FOIA requests was regrettable. UEA needs to review its policy towards FOIA and re-assess how it can support academics whose expertise in this area is limited. The Deputy Information Commissioner has given a clear indication that a breach of the Freedom of Information Act 2000 may have occurred but that a prosecution was time-barred; however no investigation has been carried out. In our view it is unsatisfactory to leave the matter unresolved. We conclude that the matter needs to be resolved conclusively -- either by the Independent Climate Change Email Review or by the Information Commissioner. We accept the independence of the Climate Change E-mail Review and recommend that the Review be open and transparent, taking oral evidence and conducting interviews in public wherever possible. On 22 March UEA announced the Scientific Appraisal Panel to be chaired by Lord Oxburgh. This Panel should determine whether the work of CRU has been soundly built and it would be premature for us to pre-judge its work.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11615640,climate-change,free-scientific-knowledge,knowledge-freedom,open-science,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,transparency,united-kingdom},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11615640},
  number = {HC 387-I}
}

@article{berkhoutReconstructingBoundariesReason2010,
  title = {Reconstructing Boundaries and Reason in the Climate Debate},
  author = {Berkhout, Frans},
  year = {2010},
  month = oct,
  volume = {20},
  pages = {565--569},
  issn = {0959-3780},
  doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.006},
  abstract = {In this article I argue that the climate controversies of 2009 and 2010 should be seen as a contest about the boundaries of science; a contest which sociologists argue has long been important in establishing claims about the nature and authority of science. This boundary typically comes under pressure where science is asked to contribute to public policy. Three changes appear to have brought pressure on this boundary, and therefore on the authority of science, in the domain climate change: public scrutiny of practices in science, such as peer review; the intensification of climate politics, especially around the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit; and the opportunities provided by new media for dissident opinions to play a role in the international public discourse about climate change. These changes explain the intensity of the recent climate controversies. They seem to confront climate science and science generally with uncomfortable questions about its own procedures, about the status of scientific knowledge claims in the public realm and about the role of expertise. At the end of the article I speculate about how to reconstruct a more open and interactive boundary between science and public discourse as a basis for more reasoned debate about climate change. The recent climate controversies can be viewed as a contest about the nature and authority of science. Three changes appear to have intensified this contest in the climate change. Domain: public scrutiny of practices in science; the intensification of climate politics; and opportunities the new media gives dissident opinions to play a role in public discourses about climate change. Ways of reconstructing a more open and interactive boundary between science and public discourse are discussed.},
  journal = {Global Environmental Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7762790,citizen-science,climate-change,free-scientific-knowledge,hidden-knowledge,knowledge-freedom,open-science,post-normal-science,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-7762790},
  number = {4}
}

@article{goberVulnerabilityAssessmentClimateinduced2010,
  title = {Vulnerability Assessment of Climate-Induced Water Shortage in {{Phoenix}}},
  author = {Gober, Patricia and Kirkwood, Craig W.},
  year = {2010},
  month = dec,
  volume = {107},
  pages = {21295--21299},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.0911113107},
  abstract = {Global warming has profound consequences for the climate of the American Southwest and its overallocated water supplies. This paper uses simulation modeling and the principles of decision making under uncertainty to translate climate information into tools for vulnerability assessment and urban climate adaptation. A dynamic simulation model, WaterSim, is used to explore future water-shortage conditions in Phoenix. Results indicate that policy action will be needed to attain water sustainability in 2030, even without reductions in river flows caused by climate change. Challenging but feasible changes in lifestyle and slower rates of population growth would allow the region to avoid shortage conditions and achieve groundwater sustainability under all but the most dire climate scenarios. Changes in lifestyle involve more native desert landscaping and fewer pools in addition to slower growth and higher urban densities. There is not a single most likely or optimal future for Phoenix. Urban climate adaptation involves using science-based models to anticipate water shortage and manage climate risk.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8424286,assessment,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,deep-uncertainty,global-warming,uncertainty,united-states,water-scarcity},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8424286},
  number = {50}
}

@article{thanukosScience101Building2010,
  title = {Science 101: Building the Foundations for Real Understanding},
  author = {Thanukos, A. and Scotchmoor, J. G. and Caldwell, R. and Lindberg, D. R.},
  year = {2010},
  month = dec,
  volume = {330},
  pages = {1764--1765},
  issn = {0036-8075},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1186994},
  abstract = {It's not just about evolution anymore. Growing anti-science sentiment in the United States now infuses public discourse on conservation, vaccination, distribution of research funds, and climate change (1). Low rates of scientific literacy (2) exacerbate the problem. Although the public recognizes its indebtedness to the products of scientific knowledge, few understand much about the nature of that knowledge or the processes that generated it (3). Without a basic understanding of how science works, the public is vulnerable to antiscience propaganda, which engenders distrust of science when it comes to social issues, consumer choices, and policy decisions.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8495103,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,cognitive-biases,conservation,education,evolution,research-funding,science-society-interface,scientific-communication,united-states,vaccination},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-8495103},
  number = {6012}
}

@article{klausmeyerClimateChangeHabitat2009,
  title = {Climate Change, Habitat Loss, Protected Areas and the Climate Adaptation Potential of Species in {{Mediterranean}} Ecosystems Worldwide},
  author = {Klausmeyer, Kirk R. and Shaw, M. R.},
  year = {2009},
  month = jul,
  volume = {4},
  pages = {e6392+},
  issn = {1932-6203},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0006392},
  abstract = {Mediterranean climate is found on five continents and supports five global biodiversity hotspots. Based on combined downscaled results from 23 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for three emissions scenarios, we determined the projected spatial shifts in the mediterranean climate extent (MCE) over the next century. Although most AOGCMs project a moderate expansion in the global MCE, regional impacts are large and uneven. The median AOGCM simulation output for the three emissions scenarios project the MCE at the end of the 21st century in Chile will range from 129-153\,\% of its current size, while in Australia, it will contract to only 77-49\,\% of its current size losing an area equivalent to over twice the size of Portugal. Only 4\,\% of the land area within the current MCE worldwide is in protected status (compared to a global average of 12\,\% for all biome types), and, depending on the emissions scenario, only 50-60\,\% of these protected areas are likely to be in the future MCE. To exacerbate the climate impact, nearly one third (29-31\,\%) of the land where the MCE is projected to remain stable has already been converted to human use, limiting the size of the potential climate refuges and diminishing the adaptation potential of native biota. High conversion and low protection in projected stable areas make Australia the highest priority region for investment in climate-adaptation strategies to reduce the threat of climate change to the rich biodiversity of the Mediterranean biome.},
  journal = {PLOS ONE},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257874,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,australia,biodiversity,chile,climate-change,conservation,ecosystem,habitat-conservation,mediterranean-region,protected-areas},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14257874},
  number = {7}
}

@article{amatulliProjectingFutureBurnt2009,
  title = {Projecting Future Burnt Area in the {{EU}}-{{Mediterranean}} Countries under {{IPCC SRES A2}}/{{B2}} Climate Change Scenarios},
  author = {Amatulli, Giuseppe and Camia, Andrea and {San-Miguel-Ayanz}, Jes{\'u}s},
  editor = {Chuvieco, E. and Lasaponara, R.},
  year = {2009},
  pages = {33--38},
  abstract = {The goal of this work is to use the results of statistical modelling of historical (1985-2004) monthly burnt areas in European Mediterranean countries, as a function of monthly weather data and derived fire danger indexes, and to analyse potential trends under present and future climate conditions. Meteorological variables were extracted from the ECMWF, and the FWI system components were computed from 1961 until 2004. Monthly averages of the indexes were used as explanatory variables in a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, to estimate the monthly burnt areas in each of the five most affected Mediterranean countries of Europe. Significant regression equations and satisfactory coefficient of determinations were found, although with remarkable differences among countries. Two IPCC SRES climate change scenarios (A2/B2) were simulated using the the regional climate model HIRHAM. The multiple regression models were than applied to the A2/B2 scenarios results to predict the potential burnt areas in each country. The models pointed out tangible changes in the potential burnt area extent for the future scenarios compared to the actual conditions.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11896019,array-programming,awk,climate-change,computational-science,forest-fires,forest-resources,gnu-r,mediterranean-region,reproducible-research},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11896019},
  number = {JRC55149}
}

@book{birotLivingWildfiresWhat2009,
  title = {Living with Wildfires: What Science Can Tell Us - {{A}} Contribution to the Science-Policy Dialogue},
  author = {Birot, Yves and Borgniet, Laurent and Camia, Andrea and Dupuy, Jean-Luc and Fernandes, Paulo and Goldammer, Johann G. and {Gonzalez-Olabarria}, Jos{\'e} R. and Jappiot, Mireille and {Lampin-Maillet}, Corinne and Mavsar, Robert and {Montiel-Molina}, Cristina and Moreira, Francisco and Moreno, Jos{\'e} M. and Rego, Francisco and Rigolot, Eric and {San-Miguel-Ayanz}, Jesus and Vallejo, Ramon and Velez, Ricardo},
  editor = {Birot, Yves},
  year = {2009},
  volume = {15},
  publisher = {{European Forest Institute}},
  address = {{Joensuu, Finland}},
  abstract = {[Excerpt: Introduction] Contrary to other natural hazards such as earthquakes or windstorms, wildfires are certainly among the most predictable ones. Therefore, it is a phenomenon which, in principle, should leave modern societies some degrees of freedom and margins of manoeuvre for implementing efficient counteracting strategies. However, this opportunity has not been properly used. Over the last decades, wildfires have proven to be a subject of growing concern for the Mediterranean Region. Woodlands, rangelands, maquis and garrigues in rural areas or at the interface with urban areas still continue to burn with significant environmental, social and economic impacts, in particular in case of increased frequencies of fires. Although the European statistics show that in average policies and measures related to fire prevention and suppression have been efficient, extreme climatic conditions (in 2003 in western Europe, and in 2007 in eastern Europe) result in catastrophic fires, such as those undergone by Portugal and Greece. The impacts of such disasters are tremendous, also at the political level. Although the occurrence of severe wildfires has been affecting mainly the northern rim of the Mediterranean Basin, some significant changes in climate and land use are already taking place and will most likely result in an expansion of fire threatened areas. For example, Syria, Lebanon and Algeria have recently been exposed to catastrophic wildfires. In a near future, new areas in the north will face a shift to Mediterranean-like ecological conditions, which raises the question of how to anticipate these evolutions.

[] As any risk, wildfires cannot and should not be eradicated, and anyhow, managing fire risk through prevention and suppression has a cost. Therefore, in the context of finite financial resources and increased areas subject to fire, the appropriate response cannot be just to continue business as usual, as it will require a dramatic increase in the means and equipments allocated to fire management. The issue at stake is rather to set up integrated strategies and policies that provide '' reasonable'' trade-offs between environmental, social and economic elements, and allow us to live with wildfire risk. This new approach definitely calls for a profound rethink of these strategies and policies at national and European level, by tackling the problem in all dimensions, including a clear identification of civil protection and forest protection objectives, as they have been in the past quite often mixed up. There is a need for moving from short term driven policy of fire control, mainly based on huge technological investments, to a longer term policy of removing the structural causes of wildfires.

[] Science's traditional mission has been - and still is - to advance knowledge as a support to innovation. Today, the mission is also to provide expertise in the policy making processes. The science community feels that it can and should contribute to feed the debate on wildfire by providing research results and ideas as background material for future options in strategies and policies. Wildfire related research has been very active in Europe over the last two decades, in particular thanks to a number of EU funded projects (Framework Programmes for RTD), so that a structured research community and new expertise and competence have emerged. Time has come to make this knowledge more digestible and available to policy and decision makers, and beyond to the whole society. This is the ambition of the current paper.

[] The document is not a state of the art report covering, in an exhaustive manner, all issues related to wildfires. It focuses rather on a limited number of selected key topics on which scientists have some messages to deliver, and which should be considered in future policy making processes. The overall objective of this discussion paper is to provide understanding for managing.

[] This discussion paper is divided in four sections. The first one presents some statistical figures on wildfire and underlines the trends. The second section deals with two basic questions which should form the background of any rational strategy: why and how do woodlands burn? what is the resulting impact? Practices and strategies for acting on fire risk, including the economic and policy dimensions, are presented in the third section. In the last part, the emphasis is put on the challenges linked to increased and new wildfire risks related to climate change, and ways to cope with them.

[] [...]},
  isbn = {978-952-5453-30-0},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14256110,climate-change,economic-impacts,natural-hazards,science-policy-interface,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14256110},
  series = {Discussion {{Paper}}}
}

@article{broomeEthicsClimateChange2008,
  title = {The {{Ethics}} of {{Climate Change}}},
  author = {Broome, John},
  year = {2008},
  month = jun,
  volume = {298},
  pages = {96--102},
  issn = {0036-8733},
  doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0608-96},
  abstract = {[Key concepts]

[:1] Future generations will suffer most of the harmful effects of global climate change. Yet if the world economy grows, they will be richer than we are. [:2] The present generation must decide, with the help of expert advice from economists, whether to aggressively reduce the chances of future harm or to let our richer descendants largely fend for themselves. [:3] Economists cannot avoid making ethical choices in formulating their advice. [:4] Even the small chance of utter catastrophe from global warming raises special problems for ethical discussion.},
  journal = {Scientific American},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11583523,climate-change,communicating-uncertainty,science-ethics,scientific-communication},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11583523},
  number = {6}
}

@book{lindnerImpactsClimateChange2008,
  title = {Impacts of Climate Change on {{European}} Forests and Options for Adaptation},
  author = {Lindner, Marcus and Schopf, Axel and Kremer, Antoine and Delzon, Sylvain and Barbati, Anna and Marchetti, Marco and Corona, Piermaria and {Garcia-Gonzalo}, Jordi and Kolstr{\"o}m, Marja and Green, Tim and Reguera, Ricardo and Maroschek, Michael and Seidl, Rupert and Lexer, Manfred J. and Netherer, Sigrid},
  year = {2008},
  address = {{Brussels}},
  abstract = {[Excerpt] This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe and reviews options for forests and forestry to adapt to climate change. It has been commissioned by the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission as an initial exploration of this complex issue. Forests are particularly sensitive to climate change, because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes. Adaptation measures for forestry need to be planned well in advance of expected changes in growing conditions because the forests regenerated today will have to cope with the future climate conditions of at least several decades, often even more than 100 years. Impacts of climate change and adaptation options were reviewed by synthesizing the existing knowledge from scientific literature, complemented with expert assessments. On-going and planned adaptation measures in EU27 Member States were surveyed with a questionnaire. The exposure to climate change was analysed by reviewing latest climate change scenario projections. The main impact factors affecting forests under climate change were reviewed. Next, the sensitivity to and potential impacts of climate change were analysed. After reviewing different components of the adaptive capacity of forests and forestry, vulnerability to climate change and related risks and opportunities were highlighted. Possible adaptation measures to respond to climate change were analysed. The results are presented for four main bioclimatic zones: Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, and the Mediterranean.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13350621,adaptation,climate-change,ecological-zones,europe,forest-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13350621},
  series = {Report {{AGRI}}-2007-{{G4}}-06}
}

@article{ciaisCarbonAccumulationEuropean2008,
  title = {Carbon Accumulation in {{European}} Forests},
  author = {Ciais, P. and Schelhaas, M. J. and Zaehle, S. and Piao, S. L. and Cescatti, A. and Liski, J. and Luyssaert, S. and {Le-Maire}, G. and Schulze, E. D. and Bouriaud, O. and Freibauer, A. and Valentini, R. and Nabuurs, G. J.},
  year = {2008},
  month = jun,
  volume = {1},
  pages = {425--429},
  issn = {1752-0894},
  doi = {10.1038/ngeo233},
  abstract = {European forests are intensively exploited for wood products, yet they also form a sink for carbon. European forest inventories, available for the past 50 years, can be combined with timber harvest statistics to assess changes in this carbon sink. Analysis of these data sets between 1950 and 2000 from the EU-15 countries excluding Luxembourg, plus Norway and Switzerland, reveals that there is a tight relationship between increases in forest biomass and forest ecosystem productivity but timber harvests grew more slowly. Encouragingly, the environmental conditions in combination with the type of silviculture that has been developed over the past 50 years can efficiently sequester carbon on timescales of decades, while maintaining forests that meet the demand for wood. However, a return to using wood as biofuel and hence shorter rotations in forestry could cancel out the benefits of carbon storage over the past five decades.},
  journal = {Nature Geoscience},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-3156186,biomass,carbon-mitigation,climate-change,europe,forest-biomass,forest-resources,multiauthor,outdated-yield-tables,primary-productivity,wood-production},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-3156186},
  number = {7}
}

@article{kullmanTreeLinePopulation2007,
  title = {Tree Line Population Monitoring of {{Pinus}} Sylvestris in the {{Swedish Scandes}}, 1973-2005: Implications for Tree Line Theory and Climate Change Ecology},
  author = {Kullman, Leif},
  year = {2007},
  volume = {95},
  pages = {41--52},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2745.2006.01190.x},
  abstract = {* 1Demographic trends of Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine) tree line populations are reported for a 32-year monitoring period (1973-2005). Functional and projective aspects of tree line performance were analysed by relating temporal variability and change of vital population parameters, such as natality/mortality, vigour, injuries, height growth and seed viability to contemporary variations in air and soil temperatures. * 2The size of the entire sampled population increased by 50\,\% during the 32-year observation period and thereby pine has become a more prominent element on the landscape. This reverses a natural multicentennial or even millennial trend of tree line decline and recession. * 3Contrasting population trends were recorded for the subperiods 1973-87 and 1988-2005, viz. decline and increase, respectively. Mean summer temperatures (JJA) did not change perceivably over and between these intervals, although some exceptionally warm summers from 1997 onwards have contributed to population expansion by increased seed viability and seedling emergence. Winter temperatures (DJF) decreased significantly over the first subperiod and were consistently higher during the second, which has significantly lowered the mortality rates. * 4A functional link to winter temperature conditions was particularly stressed by the aetiology of individual plant vigour, injuries and final mortality. Classical symptoms of winter desiccation correlated significantly with low winter temperatures. This negative impact occurred with a high frequency during the decline phase and virtually ceased during the expansion phase from 1988 onwards, when winter air and root zone temperatures were raised to a consistently higher level. * 5Winter and summer temperatures in the air and soil, as well as positive feedback mechanisms and nonlinear responses, must be taken into account in the search for global or regional mechanical explanations for the tree line phenomenon. This insight helps to generate realistic tree line models for a high-CO2 world, when winter warming is usually predicted to be particularly large.},
  journal = {Journal of Ecology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11402583,climate-change,ecology,forest-resources,global-warming,pinus-sylvestris,tree-line},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11402583},
  number = {1}
}

@article{dayRestorationMississippiDelta2007,
  title = {Restoration of the {{Mississippi}} Delta: Lessons from Hurricanes {{Katrina}} and {{Rita}}},
  author = {Day, John W. and Boesch, Donald F. and Clairain, Ellis J. and Kemp, G. Paul and Laska, Shirley B. and Mitsch, William J. and Orth, Kenneth and Mashriqui, Hassan and Reed, Denise J. and Shabman, Leonard and Simenstad, Charles A. and Streever, Bill J. and Twilley, Robert R. and Watson, Chester C. and Wells, John T. and Whigham, Dennis F.},
  year = {2007},
  volume = {315},
  pages = {1679--1684},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1137030},
  abstract = {Hurricanes Katrina and Rita showed the vulnerability of coastal communities and how human activities that caused deterioration of the Mississippi Deltaic Plain (MDP) exacerbated this vulnerability. The MDP formed by dynamic interactions between river and coast at various temporal and spatial scales, and human activity has reduced these interactions at all scales. Restoration efforts aim to re-establish this dynamic interaction, with emphasis on reconnecting the river to the deltaic plain. Science must guide MDP restoration, which will provide insights into delta restoration elsewhere and generally into coasts facing climate change in times of resource scarcity.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007228,climate-change,cyclone,restoration,united-states,wind},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14007228},
  number = {5819}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{dorrepaal_changing_2007,
	title = {Changing leaf litter feedbacks on plant production across contrasting sub-arctic peatland species and growth forms},
	volume = {151},
	issn = {0029-8549, 1432-1939},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00442-006-0580-3},
	doi = {10.1007/s00442-006-0580-3},
	abstract = {Plant species and growth forms differ widely in litter chemistry, which affects decay and may have important consequences for plant growth via e.g. the release of nutrients and growth-inhibitory compounds. We investigated the overall short-term (9.5 months) and medium-term (21.5 months) feedback effects of leaf litter quality and quantity on plant production, and tested whether growth forms can be used to generalise differences among litter species. Leaf litter effects of 21 sub-arctic vascular peatland species on Poa alpina test plants changed clearly with time. Across all growth forms, litter initially reduced plant biomass compared with untreated plants, particularly litters with a high decomposition rate or low initial lignin/P ratio. In the second year, however, litter effects were neutral or positive, and related to initial litter N concentration (positive), C/N, polyphenol/N and polyphenol/P ratios (all negative), but not to decomposability. Differences in effect size among several litter species were large, while differences in response to increasing litter quantities were not significant or of similar magnitude to differences in response to three contrasting litter species. Growth forms did not differ in initial litter effects, but second-year plant production showed a trend (P {\textless} 0.10) for differences in response to litters of different growth forms: evergreen shrubs {\textless} graminoids or deciduous shrubs {\textless} forbs. While long-persisting negative litter effects were predominant across all growth forms, our data indicate that even within nutrient-constrained ecosystems such as northern peatlands, vascular plant species, and possibly growth forms, differ in litter feedbacks to plant growth. Differences in the composition of undisturbed plant communities or species shifts induced by external disturbance, such as climate change, may therefore feedback strongly to plant biomass production and probably nutrient cycling rates in northern peatlands.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2017-02-08},
	journal = {Oecologia},
	author = {Dorrepaal, Ellen and Cornelissen, Johannes H. C. and Aerts, Rien},
	month = mar,
	year = {2007},
	note = {00044},
	keywords = {\#nosource, Litter decomposition, Nitrogen, bartsia-alpina, climate-change, decomposition rates, dwarf shrub, functional types, high latitude, litter chemistry, mediated controls, phytometer, plant   functional type, responses, tundra, vegetation},
	pages = {251--261},
}

@article{lowExtraordinaryDrought20032006,
  title = {Extraordinary Drought of 2003 Overrules Ozone Impact on Adult Beech Trees ( {{Fagus}} Sylvatica )},
  author = {L{\"o}w, M. and Herbinger, K. and Nunn, A. J. and H{\"a}berle, K. H. and Leuchner, M. and Heerdt, C. and Werner, H. and Wipfler, P. and Pretzsch, H. and Tausz, M. and Matyssek, R.},
  year = {2006},
  month = sep,
  volume = {20},
  pages = {539--548},
  issn = {0931-1890},
  doi = {10.1007/s00468-006-0069-z},
  abstract = {The extraordinary drought during the summer of 2003 in Central Europe allowed to examine responses of adult beech trees ( Fagus sylvatica ) to co-occurring stress by soil moisture deficit and elevated O 3 levels under forest conditions in southern Germany. The study comprised tree exposure to the ambient O 3 regime at the site and to a twice-ambient O 3 regime as released into the canopy through a free-air O 3 fumigation system. Annual courses of photosynthesis ( A max ), stomatal conductance ( g s ), electron transport rate (ETR) and chlorophyll levels were compared between 2003 and 2004, the latter year representing the humid long-term climate at the site. ETR, A max and g s were lowered during 2003 by drought rather than ozone, whereas chlorophyll levels did not differ between the years. Radial stem increment was reduced in 2003 by drought but fully recovered during the subsequent, humid year. Comparison of AOT40, an O 3 exposure-based risk index of O 3 stress, and cumulative ozone uptake (COU) yielded a linear relationship throughout humid growth conditions, but a changing slope during 2003. Our findings support the hypothesis that drought protects plants from O 3 injury by stomatal closure, which restricts O 3 influx into leaves and decouples COU from high external ozone levels. High AOT40 erroneously suggested high O 3 risk under drought. Enhanced ozone levels did not aggravate drought effects in leaves and stem.},
  journal = {Trees - Structure and Function},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11379882,adaptation,climate-change,droughts,europe,fagus-sylvatica,forest-resources,ozone},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11379882},
  number = {5}
}

@article{tornMissingFeedbacksAsymmetric2006,
  title = {Missing Feedbacks, Asymmetric Uncertainties, and the Underestimation of Future Warming},
  author = {Torn, Margaret S. and Harte, John},
  year = {2006},
  month = may,
  volume = {33},
  pages = {n/a},
  issn = {0094-8276},
  doi = {10.1029/2005gl025540},
  abstract = {Historical evidence shows that atmospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantified this feedback for CO2 and CH4 by combining the mathematics of feedback with empirical ice-core information and general circulation model (GCM) climate sensitivity, finding that the warming of 1.5-4.5\textdegree C associated with anthropogenic doubling of CO2 is amplified to 1.6-6.0\textdegree C warming, with the uncertainty range deriving from GCM simulations and paleo temperature records. Thus, anthropogenic emissions result in higher final GhG concentrations, and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of this feedback. Moreover, a symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed toward higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think.},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-3308907,climate-change,climate-projections,feedback,ghg,global-warming,modelling,non-linearity,prediction-bias,temperature,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-3308907},
  number = {10}
}

@article{guisanPredictingSpeciesDistribution2005,
  title = {Predicting Species Distribution: Offering More than Simple Habitat Models},
  author = {Guisan, Antoine and Thuiller, Wilfried},
  year = {2005},
  month = sep,
  volume = {8},
  pages = {993--1009},
  issn = {1461-023X},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x},
  abstract = {In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory.},
  journal = {Ecology Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-280759,bioclimatic-predictors,climate-change,conservation,ecology,environmental-predictors,habitat-conservation,habitat-suitability,migration-history,mode,modelling,niche-modelling,potential-habitat,species-distribution},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-280759},
  number = {9}
}

@article{araujoWouldClimateChange2004,
  title = {Would Climate Change Drive Species out of Reserves? {{An}} Assessment of Existing Reserve-Selection Methods},
  author = {Araujo, Miguel B. and Cabeza, Mar and Thuiller, Wilfried and Hannah, Lee and Williams, Paul H.},
  year = {2004},
  month = sep,
  volume = {10},
  pages = {1618--1626},
  issn = {1354-1013},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00828.x},
  abstract = {Concern for climate change has not yet been integrated in protocols for reserve selection. However if climate changes as projected, there is a possibility that current reserve-selection methods might provide solutions that are inadequate to ensure species' long-term persistence within reserves. We assessed, for the first time, the ability of existing reserve-selection methods to secure species in a climate-change context. Six methods using a different combination of criteria (representation, suitability and reserve clustering) are compared. The assessment is carried out using European distributions of 1200 plant species and considering two extreme scenarios of response to climate change: no dispersal and universal dispersal. With our data, 6-11\,\% of species modelled would be potentially lost from selected reserves in a 50-year period. Measured uncertainties varied in 6\,\% being 1-3\,\% attributed to dispersal assumptions and 2-5\,\% to the choice of reserve-selection method. Suitability approaches to reserve selection performed best, while reserve clustering performed poorly. We also found that 5\,\% of species modelled would lose their entire climatic envelope in the studied area; 2\,\% of the species modelled would have nonoverlapping distributions; 93\,\% of the species modelled would maintain varying levels of overlapping distributions. We conclude there are opportunities to minimize species' extinctions within reserves but new approaches are needed to account for impacts of climate change on species; especially for those projected to have temporally nonoverlapping distributions.},
  journal = {Global Change Biology},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-201812,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,clustering,conservation,europe,species-dispersal,species-distribution,uncertainty},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-201812},
  number = {9}
}

@article{dullingerPatternsShrubInvasion2003,
  title = {Patterns of {{Shrub Invasion}} into {{High Mountain Grasslands}} of the {{Northern Calcareous Alps}}, {{Austria}}},
  author = {Dullinger, S. and Dirnb{\"o}ck, T. and Grabherr, G.},
  year = {2003},
  volume = {35},
  pages = {434--441},
  abstract = {Both land use and expected climate change will probably cause range shifts of tree and shrub species in the European Alps. Attempts to predict the magnitude and direction of these processes will produce reliable results only if they consider both abiotic habitat conditions and biotic interactions. In this study we analyze recruitment patterns of Pinus mugo Turra in different grassland communities of the Northern Calcareous Alps, Austria. Pinus mugo is the most important invader of abandoned subalpine pastures in the area and the predominant woody plant at the current timberline. Results indicate strong dependence of colonization success on propagule pressure and differential invasibility of grassland types but only a marginal impact of local-scale site conditions, at least within the species' current altitudinal distribution limits. Because the grassland matrix at and above the current treeline is dominated by a particularly invasible grassland type, a possible climate change-driven upward movement of Pinus mugo shrublands may take place quite rapidly. In contrast, encroachment on abandoned subalpine pastures is frequently delayed by competition with vigorous grassland canopies.},
  journal = {Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13778887,austria,climate-change,grasslands,pinus-mugo},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13778887},
  number = {4}
}

@article{aussenacEcologyEcophysiologyCircumMediterranean2002,
  title = {Ecology and Ecophysiology of Circum-{{Mediterranean}} Firsin the Context of Climate Change},
  author = {Aussenac, Gilbert},
  year = {2002},
  month = dec,
  volume = {59},
  pages = {823--832},
  issn = {1286-4560},
  doi = {10.1051/forest:2002080},
  abstract = {In the expected climatic change scenario (with increased temperatures and water deficits) related to greenhouse effect phenomena, questions are being raised concerning the migration of the potential range of forest specie (contraction in the south and at lower altitudes, extension towards the north and higher altitudes) and the consequences on silviculture. To answer these questions, information about climatic changes and the ecophysiology of the forest species concerned is required. In this paper the case of circum-Mediterranean firs is examined as they could be in danger in parts of their present range but could also provide valuable solutions for the replacement of other species in more northerly zones with temperate humid climates and that would not be adapted to new climatic conditions. We try to answer these questions using a simplified climatic analysis of the original ranges and knowledge about the ecology and ecophysiology of firs. In the original ranges of these species climatic data is rare and very incomplete. Under these conditions it is impossible to undertake a detailed climatological analysis. Also, taking into account the diversity and heterogeneity of the climatic descriptions made by the various authors, and so as to be able to compare the different firs species, we used an aridity index. By taking a numerical approach, this index allowed us to have a general and comparative view of the climatology of the original fir ranges in relation to drought problems, and also to simulate evolution easily and compare it with the present situations for each species. On the basis of all the different results obtained it seems that, in relation to a possible increase in drought linked to a temperature increase (except no doubt for Abies numidica and A. pinsapo), there is a great risk that the present ranges of circum-Mediterranean firs will decrease in the lowest zones of their range, but also in other zones characterized by southerly aspects and shallow soils. For Abies cephalonica and Abies cilicica, species with early bud burst, there is also the risk of a possible increase in late frost damage in addition to water stress effects. Except for A. nordmanniana and A. bornmulleriana, other species may also be concerned, but to a lesser extent. Regarding the replacement of species, which would become necessary in the case of climatic change, with the exceptions of A. nordmanniana which has already been used and of for A. nebrodensis, these firs could be an alternative to the regression of more hygrophilous species, especially in zones to the north of their present ranges.},
  journal = {Annals of Forest Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13495770,abies-spp,climate-change,forest-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13495770},
  number = {8}
}

Website  bibtex   

@article{
 title = {Ecological responses to recent climate change},
 type = {article},
 year = {2002},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 pages = {389-395},
 volume = {416},
 websites = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/416389a},
 id = {8df9a2db-99ef-3ba6-898e-d4e6c32695d8},
 created = {2011-02-22T18:00:53.000Z},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {c04350e2-ca59-3023-9537-35726b8dc7ec},
 group_id = {3addd0f7-d578-34d3-be80-24022cc062a1},
 last_modified = {2019-06-04T14:58:47.448Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {false},
 confirmed = {true},
 hidden = {false},
 citation_key = {Walther2002},
 source_type = {Journal Article},
 notes = {M3: 10.1038/416389a; 10.1038/416389a<m:linebreak></m:linebreak>Journal Article},
 private_publication = {false},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Walther, G and Post, E and Convey, P and Menzel, A and Parmesan, C and Beebee, T J C and Fromentin, J and Hoegh-Guldberg, O and Bairlein, F and Anonymous, undefined},
 journal = {Nature},
 number = {6879}
}

@article{meehlTrendsExtremeWeather2000,
  title = {Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Issues Related to Modeling Extremes in Projections of Future Climate Change},
  author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Zwiers, Francis and Evans, Jenni and Knutson, Thomas and Mearns, Linda and Whetton, Peter},
  year = {2000},
  month = mar,
  volume = {81},
  pages = {427--436},
  issn = {1520-0477},
  doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<0427:TIEWAC>2.3.CO;2},
  abstract = {Projections of statistical aspects of weather and climate extremes can be derived from climate models representing possible future climate states. Some of the recent models have reproduced results previously reported in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, such as a greater frequency of extreme warm days and lower frequency of extreme cold days associated with a warmer mean climate, a decrease in diurnal temperature range associated with higher nighttime temperatures, increased precipitation intensity, midcontinent summer drying, decreasing daily variability of surface temperature in winter, and increasing variability of northern midlatitude summer surface temperatures. This reconfirmation of previous results gives an increased confidence in the credibility of the models, though agreement among models does not guarantee those changes will occur. New results since the IPCC Second Assessment Report indicate a possible increase of extreme heat stress events in a warmer climate, an increase of cooling degree days and decrease in heating degree days, an increase of precipitation extremes such that there is a decrease in return periods for 20 -- yr extreme precipitation events, and more detailed analyses of possible changes in 20 -- yr return values for extreme maximum and minimum temperatures. Additionally, recent studies are now addressing interannual and synoptic time and space scale processes that affect weather and climate extremes, such as tropical cyclones, El Ni\~no effects, and extratropical storms. However, current climate models are not yet in agreement with respect to possible future changes in such features.},
  journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7425318,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,climate-extremes,climate-projections,droughts,dry-spells,el-nino,extreme-events,extreme-weather,modelling,precipitation,storm,temperature},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-7425318},
  number = {3}
}

@article{inouyeEcologicalEvolutionarySignificance2000,
  title = {The Ecological and Evolutionary Significance of Frost in the Context of Climate Change},
  author = {Inouye, D. W.},
  year = {2000},
  month = sep,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {457--463},
  issn = {1461-023X},
  doi = {10.1046/j.1461-0248.2000.00165.x},
  abstract = {The effects that below-freezing temperature (frost) can have at times of year when it is unusual are an interesting ecological phenomenon that has received little attention. The physiological consequence of formation of ice crystals in plant tissue is often death of the plants, or at least of sensitive parts that can include flower buds, ovaries, and leaves. The loss of potential for sexual reproduction can have long-lasting effects on the demography of annuals and long-lived perennials, because the short-term negative effects of frosts can result in longer-term benefits through lowered populations of seed predators. The loss of host plants can have dramatic consequences for herbivores, even causing local extinctions, and the loss of just flowers can also affect populations of seed predators and their parasitoids. Frosts can cause local extinctions and influence the geographical distribution of some species. The potential for global climate change to influence the frequency and distribution of frost events is uncertain, but it seems likely that they may become more frequent in some areas and less frequent in others.},
  journal = {Ecology Letters},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-2812147,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,frost-damage},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-2812147},
  number = {5}
}

@article{rehfeldtGeneticResponsesClimate1999,
  title = {Genetic Responses to Climate in {{Pinus}} Contorta: Niche Breadth, Climate Change, and Reforestation},
  author = {Rehfeldt, Gerald E. and Ying, Cheng C. and Spittlehouse, David L. and Hamilton, David A.},
  year = {1999},
  month = aug,
  volume = {69},
  pages = {375--407},
  issn = {0012-9615},
  doi = {10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0375:GRTCIP]2.0.CO;2},
  abstract = {Fundamental plant-environment relationships were revealed by analyses of 20-yr height and survival of 118 populations representing two subspecies of Pinus contorta growing in common gardens at 60 environmentally disparate test sites in British Columbia. The approach involved (1) preparing models that described the general climate of British Columbia, (2) developing population-specific response functions driven by predicted climate variables, (3) developing general transfer functions that predict performance from the climatic distances over which populations were transferred, and (4) interpreting the results in terms of niche breadth, effects of climate change on adaptedness of populations, and reforestation in a changing environment.

Polynomial regression models used physiographic descriptors to predict seven climate variables from normalized records of 513 weather stations. Values of R2 ranged over 0.80-0.97 for thermal variables and 0.54-0.61 for precipitation variables. Validations with independent data from 45 stations were strong and suggested that the models were generally free of bias within the limits of the original data.

Response functions describing the height or survival of each population were developed from quadratic regressions using predicted climate variables for each test site. Mean annual temperature and mean temperature in the coldest month were the most effective variables for predicting population height, while the ratio of summer temperature to summer moisture was the best predictor of survival. Validation of the response functions with independent data from two additional test sites produced values of R2 between actual and predicted values that were as high as 0.93 for height and 0.73 for survival. The results demonstrated that natural populations have different climatic optima but tend to occupy suboptimal environments. Nevertheless, the general transfer functions showed that optimal growth and survival of the species as a whole is associated with the null transfer distance.

These seemingly anomalous results suggest that the same processes thought to determine the distribution of species control the distribution of genotypes within species: (1) environmental selection to produce a broad fundamental niche, and (2) density-dependent selection to produce a relatively narrow realized niche within which most populations are relegated to suboptimal environments. Consequently, the steep geographic clines typical of P. contorta seem to be driven more by density-dependent selection than by environmental selection. Asymmetric gene flow from the center of distribution toward the periphery is viewed as a primary regulator that provides the fuel for both environmental and density-dependent selection and thereby indirectly perpetuates suboptimality.

The response functions predict that small changes in climate will greatly affect growth and survival of forest tree populations and, therefore, that maintaining contemporary forest productivities during global warming will require a wholesale redistribution of genotypes across the landscape. The response functions also provide the climatic bases to current reforestation guidelines and quantify the adjustments necessary for maintaining adaptedness in planted trees during periods of small (1\textdegree C) temporal temperature shifts.},
  journal = {Ecological Monographs},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12593318,climate-change,forest-resources,niche-modelling,pinus-contorta},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12593318},
  number = {3}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{assengUncertaintySimulatingWheat2013,
  title = {Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields under Climate Change},
  author = {Asseng, S. and Ewert, F. and Rosenzweig, C. and Jones, J. W. and Hatfield, J. L. and Ruane, A. C. and Boote, K. J. and Thorburn, P. J. and Rötter, R. P. and Cammarano, D. and Brisson, N. and Basso, B. and Martre, P. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Angulo, C. and Bertuzzi, P. and Biernath, C. and Challinor, A. J. and Doltra, J. and Gayler, S. and Goldberg, R. and Grant, R. and Heng, L. and Hooker, J. and Hunt, L. A. and Ingwersen, J. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Müller, C. and Naresh Kumar, S. and Nendel, C. and O'Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Osborne, T. M. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Ripoche, D. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Steduto, P. and Stöckle, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Travasso, M. and Waha, K. and Wallach, D. and White, J. W. and Williams, J. R. and Wolf, J.},
  date = {2013-06},
  journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
  volume = {3},
  pages = {827--832},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1916},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1916},
  abstract = {Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policy making.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12438735,agricultural-land,agricultural-resources,climate-change,crop-yield,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,integration-techniques,multiauthor,science-policy-interface,transdisciplinary-research,uncertainty,wheat},
  number = {9}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{petersRapidGrowthCO22011,
  title = {Rapid Growth in {{CO2}} Emissions after the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis},
  author = {Peters, Glen P. and Marland, Gregg and Le Quéré, Corinne and Boden, Thomas and Canadell, Josep G. and Raupach, Michael R.},
  date = {2011-12},
  journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
  volume = {2},
  pages = {2--4},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1332},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332},
  abstract = {Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production grew 5.9\,\% in 2010, surpassed 9 Pg of carbon (Pg C) for the first time, and more than offset the 1.4\,\% decrease in 2009. The impact of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on emissions has been short-lived owing to strong emissions growth in emerging economies, a return to emissions growth in developed economies, and an increase in the fossil-fuel intensity of the world economy.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10096561,anthropogenic-impacts,carbon-emissions,climate-change,crisis,economic-impacts,global-scale},
  number = {1}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{moriReframingEcosystemManagement2013,
  title = {Reframing Ecosystem Management in the Era of Climate Change: Issues and Knowledge from Forests},
  author = {Mori, Akira S. and Spies, Thomas A. and Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen and Andrade, Angela},
  date = {2013-09},
  journaltitle = {Biological Conservation},
  volume = {165},
  pages = {115--127},
  issn = {0006-3207},
  doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2013.05.020},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.05.020},
  abstract = {We discuss ” ecosystem management (EM)” to face contemporary climate change issues. EM focuses on sustaining ecosystems to meet both ecological and human needs. EM plans have been largely developed independent of concerns about climate change. However, EM is potentially effective for climate change mitigation and adaptation. We provide the principle guidelines based on EM to adaptively tackle the issues. Climate change is one of the significant concerns in land and resource management, creating an urgent need to build social-ecological capacity to address widespread and uncertain environmental changes. Given the diversity and complexity of ecological responses to climate change ” ecosystem management” approaches are needed to provide solutions for meeting both ecological and human needs, while reducing anthropogenic warming and climate-related impacts on society. For instance, ecosystem management can contribute to a reduction in the greenhouse gas emissions through improved land-use and reduced deforestation at a regional scale. Further, conserving and restoring naturally-functioning ecosystems, which is often one of the goals of ecosystem management can significantly contribute to buffering ecological responses to climate extremes such as droughts and wildfires. Moreover, ecosystem management helps build capacity for learning and adaptation at multiple scales. As a result, societies will be better prepared to respond to surprises and uncertainties associated with climate change. In this regard, it is imperative to reframe climate change issues based on the ecosystem approach. Although climate change and ecosystem management plans have largely developed independently, it is now essential for all stakeholders to work together to achieve multiple goals. The ecosystem-based approaches can enable flexible and effective responses to the uncertainties associated with climate change. Reframing ecosystem management helps to face an urgent need for reconsideration and improvement of social-ecological resilience in order to mitigate and adapt to the changing climate.

[Excerpt: Conclusion]

Novel approaches underpinned by sociology, ecology and climate science are necessary to perform assessments that reflect the many roles that ecosystem management can play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. No single method and focal scale for addressing the effects or causes of climate change exists. Indeed, there are often trade-offs such as those between the goals of building resilience (learning from failure) and reducing vulnerability (minimizing failure) (Adger et al., 2008), suggesting some policies aimed at minimizing exposure to any hazards at the regional scale can potentially conflict with the proactive implementation of adaptive management at the local scale. In this article, we have discussed reframing ecosystem management as an effective way to address the uncertainties of climate change. It is therefore necessary to adopt flexible and robust management strategies that consider various scenarios, rather than adopting a single measure. Similar to climate change, which is intricately connected to other issues beyond physical climatic change, ecological issues are deeply associated with global issues. A number of environmental policies and plans have been historically developed with little consideration of climate instability. Among them, our attempt that integrates different management considerations into the common context lends a strong support for the objectives and approaches of ecosystem management as an effective tool to face climate change uncertainties.

[\textbackslash n] It is important for all stakeholders to work together to identity multiple goals. Ecologists need to address ecosystem processes and functions in the context of possible future conditions; resource managers and policymakers need to build capacity for learning and adaptation; and all stakeholders need to share a recognition that social-ecological systems are interacting not only with each other (social-ecological interdependence) but also with the climate system. In keeping with the view of Moss et al. (2010) that the future climate largely depends on the behaviour of global society, the fates of ecosystems will strongly depend on how human society faces climate change. In particular, there are still important gaps in the combined study of climate and ecosystem science that need to be addressed. At the time of UNFCCC meetings in Copenhagen in 2009, UNEP (2009a) stated that climate information, when coupled with other information such as ecology and socio-economics, should be centralized within policy formulation and decision making process for practical ecosystem management at local and regional scales with reasonable timescales of the next several decades. Bringing different fields together is essential to tackle future complexity. The constructive improvements that come from an ecosystem management strategy, as summarized in Table 2, has the potential to effectively fill the gaps among disciplines and stakeholders.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13912160,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,climate-change,climate-extremes,droughts,ecology,ecosystem,forest-resources,incomplete-knowledge,knowledge-integration,mitigation,uncertainty,wildfires}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{alfieriAdvancesPanEuropeanFlood2014,
  title = {Advances in Pan-{{European}} Flood Hazard Mapping},
  author = {Alfieri, Lorenzo and Salamon, Peter and Bianchi, Alessandra and Neal, Jeffrey and Bates, Paul and Feyen, Luc},
  date = {2014-06},
  journaltitle = {Hydrological Processes},
  volume = {28},
  pages = {4067--4077},
  issn = {0885-6087},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.9947},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9947},
  abstract = {Flood hazard maps at trans-national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans-national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan-European flood hazard map at 100\,m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long-term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100\,years along the pan-European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan-European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59\,\% and 78\,\%, critical success index between 43\,\% and 65\%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright  2013 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13239732,climate-change,emergency-events,europe,floods,hydrology,mapping,natural-hazards},
  number = {13}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@incollection{galilWaterwaysInvasionHighways2007,
  title = {Waterways as Invasion Highways - {{Impact}} of Climate Change and Globalization Biological Invasions},
  booktitle = {Biological {{Invasions}}},
  author = {Galil, Bella S. and Nehring, Stefan and Panov, Vadim},
  editor = {Nentwig, Wolfgang},
  date = {2007},
  volume = {193},
  pages = {59--74},
  publisher = {{Springer Berlin Heidelberg}},
  location = {{Berlin, Heidelberg}},
  doi = {10.1007/978-3-540-36920-2\\_5},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-36920-2_5},
  abstract = {The earliest civilizations flourished on the banks of navigable rivers. Indeed, their first monumental hydrological construction projects were concerned with irrigation and transport: around 2200 b.c., the first navigable canal, the Shatt-el-hai, linking the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in Mesopotamia, was excavated; in the 6th century b.c., a canal was built which joined the Nile with the northern Red Sea and, in the 4th century b.c., the Grand Canal in China connected Peking to Hangzhou, a distance of almost 1,000 km.The technological innovations of the 18th century led to an expansion of the network of navigable inland waterways, followed in the 19th century and the early part of the 20th century by the excavation of two interoceanic canals: the Suez Canal, which opened a direct route from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indo-Pacific Ocean, and the Panama Canal, which afforded passage between the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific oceans. Canals connecting rivers over watersheds or seas across narrow land bridges ” dissolve” natural barriers to the dispersal of aquatic organisms, thereby furnishing these with many opportunities for natural dispersal as well as for shipping-mediated transport. The introduction of alien aquatic species has proven to be one of the most profound and damaging anthropogenic deeds - involving both ecological and economic costs. Globalization and climate change are projected to increase aquatic bioinvasions and reduce environmental resistance to invasion of thermophilic biota. Navigable waterways serving as major invasion corridors offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of these processes.},
  isbn = {978-3-540-77375-7},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11477007,~to-add-doi-URL,alien-species,climate-change,global-change,natural-resources-interactions,water-resources},
  series = {Ecological {{Studies}}}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kirchmeier-youngAttributingExtremeFire2017,
  title = {Attributing Extreme Fire Risk in {{Western Canada}} to Human Emissions},
  author = {Kirchmeier-Young, Megan C. and Zwiers, Francis W. and Gillett, Nathan P. and Cannon, Alex J.},
  date = {2017-07},
  journaltitle = {Climatic Change},
  volume = {144},
  pages = {365--379},
  issn = {0165-0009},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0},
  abstract = {Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14444364,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,canada,climate-change,climate-extremes,extreme-events,fire-risk,fire-season,fire-weather-index,rcp85},
  number = {2}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{sommersSynthesisKnowledgeFire2011,
  title = {Synthesis of Knowledge: Fire History and Climate Change},
  shorttitle = {Synthesis of {{Knowledge}}},
  author = {Sommers, William and Coloff, Stanley and Conard, Susan},
  date = {2011-01-01},
  journaltitle = {JFSP Synthesis Reports},
  url = {https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/jfspsynthesis/19},
  abstract = {This report synthesizes available fire history climate change scientific knowledge to aid managers with fire decisions in tile face of ongoing 21st Century cIimate change. Fire history and climate change mange (FHCC\vphantom\{\} have been ongoing for over 400 million years of Earth history, but increasing human influences during tile Holocene epoch have changed both climate and fire regimes. We describe basic concepts of climate science and explain the causes of accelerating 21H Century climate change. Fire regimes and ecosystems classification serve to unify ecological and climate factors influencing fire, and are useful for applying fire history and climate manage information to specific ecosystems. Variable and changing patterns of climate-fire interaction occur over different time and space scales that shape use of FHCC knowledge. Ecosystem differences in fire regimes, climate change and available fire history mean that using an ecosystem specific view will be beneficial when applying FHCC knowledge.},
  keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-VTUB7FXK,climate-change,ecological-domains,ecological-zones,fire-regimes,forest-resources,united-states,vegetation,wildfires},
  number = {19}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{xuWellMitigationStrategies2017,
  title = {Well below 2 °{{C}}: Mitigation Strategies for Avoiding Dangerous to Catastrophic Climate Changes},
  author = {Xu, Yangyang and Ramanathan, Veerabhadran},
  date = {2017-09},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {114},
  pages = {10315--10323},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1618481114},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1618481114},
  abstract = {The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to ” well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5\,\%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50\,\% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: {$>$}1.5 °C as dangerous; {$>$}3 °C as catastrophic; and {$>$}5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term ({$<$}2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

[Excerpt: Summary] Basically, for a safe climate, all three levers (CN, SP, and CES) must be deployed as soon as possible. The CN and SP levers must be deployed by 2030 and 2020, respectively; the cumulative CO2 emissions from preindustrial must be limited to 2.2 trillion tons of CO2 (or 0.6 trillion tons of carbon); and the CES lever should extract and sequester as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 (CES1t), depending on when the CN lever is deployed. If the CN lever is deployed as early as 2020, the required CES is much less than 1 trillion tons.

[] We propose that mitigation goals be set in terms of climate risk category instead of a temperature threshold. In this paper, we offer three broad risk categories, but it is likely that a more granular set of categories is required. The temperature threshold has served policy very well; however, given the imminence of dangerous warming within decades, the focus must broaden to include extreme climate changes. Precipitation, flooding, fire, and drought will all become serious sources of concern. The temperature will still occupy our attention because of the heat stress phenomenon and the likelihood of approximately half of the population exposed to deadly heat by 2050 (Box 2).

[] We conclude with a commentary on the feasibility of the mitigation options considered thus far. Over 24 technological measures to reduce SLCPs have been detailed previously (39) (details are provided in SI Appendix). These measures include providing clean cook stoves to the poorest three billion of the world's total population and installing particulate filters in all diesel vehicles to reduce global BC emissions by nearly 80\,\% and also reduce air pollution-related mortalities by ∼2 million; routine maintenance of gas pipes and banning gas flaring to reduce methane leaks; recovering methane from landfills, water sewage treatment plants, and farm manure; replacing HFCs with other available refrigerants that have negligible greenhouse effects; and installing catalytic converters in vehicles to reduce emissions of ozone precursors.

[] CN levers require switching from fossil fuels to renewables such as wind, solar, geothermal and nuclear sources, among others. Also, CO2 emissions from industrial processes should be eliminated. This requires electrification of all end uses and production of electricity from renewables (40). Since many renewables (solar and wind) are intermittent, storage is a crucial issue. Batteries, hydrogen production by renewables, and pumped hydropower are all possible options for storage. While about 50\,\% of reductions are possible with scaling up of existing technologies, innovations are required for achieving carbon neutrality in a cost-effective manner (40). Achievement of carbon neutrality also requires societal transformation, governance, and market mechanisms such as cap and trade and carbon pricing (40). The encouraging sign is that 52 cities, 65 businesses, and numerous universities have already embarked on the CN pathway (41). Some of these living laboratories, like California and Stockholm, have shown that the gross domestic product (GDP) can be decoupled from carbon emissions. Their carbon emission per GDP has decreased by 20\,\% while bending the carbon emissions curve. The technology development and innovations from these living laboratories should be scaled to the world to greatly accelerate efforts to achieve CN within decades.

[] Of the three levers recommended here, the third lever dealing with CES is the most challenging and formidable due to lack of scalable technologies. However, many technologies are being explored, including capturing CO2 in bioenergy power plants (42), biochar production by pyrolysis and storage in soils (43), restoration of soil organic pools (44), chemical weathering of rocks, mineral sequestration, reforestation, and urban forestry, among others. The availability of land and conflict with food production is another important constraint in some of the CES solutions. Major breakthroughs are needed urgently, and in the meantime, the best option is to start on the CN goal by 2020 and mitigate the SPs as soon as possible, since cost-effective technologies are already present to immediately start bending the emission curves.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14438775,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,carbon-capture-and-storage,carbon-emissions,carbon-mitigation,climate-change,global-scale,mitigation,pollution,system-catastrophe},
  number = {39}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{tamarin-brodskyEnhancedPolewardPropagation2017,
  title = {Enhanced Poleward Propagation of Storms under Climate Change},
  author = {Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia and Kaspi, Yohai},
  date = {2017-11},
  journaltitle = {Nature Geoscience},
  issn = {1752-0894},
  doi = {10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-017-0001-8},
  abstract = {Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability -- often referred to as storm tracks -- which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14476167,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,cyclone,global-scale,precipitation,rcp85,storm,wind}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@incollection{tocknerFloodPlainsCritically2008,
  title = {Flood Plains: Critically Threatened Ecosystems},
  booktitle = {Aquatic {{Ecosystems}}},
  author = {Tockner, Klement and Bunn, Stuart E. and Gordon, Christopher and Naiman, Robert J. and Quinn, Gerry P. and Stanford, Jack A.},
  editor = {Polunin, Nicholas V. C.},
  date = {2008},
  pages = {45--62},
  publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}},
  location = {{Cambridge}},
  doi = {10.1017/cbo9780511751790.006},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511751790.006},
  abstract = {[Excerpt: Introduction] 

Riparian zones, river-marginal wetland environments and flood plains are key landscape elements with a high diversity of natural functions and services. They are dynamic systems that are shaped by repeated erosion and deposition of sediment, inundation during rising water levels, and complex groundwater-surface water exchange processes (Chapter 3). This dynamic nature makes flood plains among the most biologically productive and diverse ecosystems on earth [...]. Flood plains are also of great cultural and economic importance; most early civilizations arose in fertile flood plains and throughout history people have learned to cultivate and use their rich resources. Flood plains have also served as focal points for urban development and exploitation of their natural functions.

[\textbackslash n] Awareness has been growing during the past decade of the global significance of freshwater biodiversity, of the array of factors that have (or will have) threatened it and the extent to which real damage has already been done [...]. Flood plains in particular have been highly degraded throughout the world by river and flow management and by land-use pressures. Nowadays, they are among the most endangered ecosystems worldwide [...]. Accordingly, flood plains deserve increased attention for their inherent biodiversity, for the goods and services provided to human societies and for their aesthetic and cultural appeal.

[\textbackslash n] This chapter builds upon a recent comprehensive environmental review of riverine flood plains [...]. It starts with a short summary of the distribution and extent of the world's flood plains, followed by an overview of their primary economic, ecological and cultural values. The multifaceted threats that make flood plains one of the most endangered landscape elements worldwide are then discussed. Finally, future trends in floodplain exploitation in developing and developed countries are contrasted, and the ecological consequences of rapid alteration of floodplain ecosystems forecasted. Since flood plains, wetlands and river systems are not always clearly distinguished, general examples of rivers or floodplain wetlands are included in the present review when appropriate. The flood-inundated wetlands and lakes of the humid tropics are treated in more detail later (Chapter 10).

[\textbackslash n] [...]

[Flood plain distribution]

Flood plains are defined as 'areas of low lying land that are subject to inundation by lateral overflow water from rivers or lakes with which they are associated' [...]. This definition includes fringing flood plains of lakes and rivers, internal deltas and the deltaic flood plains of estuaries. [\textbackslash n] [...]

Based on data from 145 major river corridors around the world, the extent of human impacts on riparian zones is apparent [...]. For example, 11\,\% of the riparian area of African rivers (mean population density 24 people km2) is intensively cultivated, compared to 46\,\% for North American rivers (mean population density, excluding northern Canada and Alaska, 24 people km2) and 79\,\% for European rivers (mean population density 75 people km2). The most impacted riparian corridors with respect to land use are found in Europe and in the densely populated areas of Asia (catchments with population densities {$>$}200 people km2) [...]. There, 60-99\,\% of the entire riparian corridor has been transformed into cropland and/or is urbanized, the latter particularly so in Europe, where the Seine River (France) shows the highest impact of all rivers investigated.

[\textbackslash n] [...]

The current situation for European flood plains is critical [...] with 95\,\% of the original floodplain area converted to other uses [...]. In 45 European countries, 88\,\% of alluvial forests have disappeared from their potential range [...]. Many of the remaining European flood plains are far from pristine and have lost most of their natural functions. For example, of the former 26 000 km2 of floodplain area along the Danube and its major tributaries, about 20 000 km2 are isolated by levees [...]. However, major flood events have highlighted the vast extent of plains still subject to flooding [...].

[\textbackslash n] [...]

[Conclusions]

Flood plains are unique and dynamic ecosystems that link rivers with their catchments. They are highly productive environments, supporting a diverse biota, but are also intensively used by humans for agricultural and urban development, resulting in loss of biodiversity and ecological functioning. The priority for flood plains is to conserve those that are still intact and to attempt to rehabilitate those that are degraded. In both cases, protecting or restoring key components of the natural flow regime is essential, while maintaining sustainable use of floodplain resources by local communities, particularly in developing countries. Finding this compromise between conservation and resource use requires a greater understanding of the role of flow relative to other stressors in driving ecological processes in flood plains. Floodplain management and restoration strategies must also take into account climate change models that predict significant changes to flow regimes in most of the world's rivers, especially in temperate and arid regions.},
  isbn = {978-0-511-75179-0},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13938341,~to-add-doi-URL,anthropogenic-changes,arid-climate,climate-change,ecosystem,flood-frequency,flooding-tolerance,floods,forest-resources,river-flow,temperate-climate,vegetation,water-resources}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@book{lindnerImpactsClimateChange2008,
  title = {Impacts of Climate Change on {{European}} Forests and Options for Adaptation},
  author = {Lindner, Marcus and Schopf, Axel and Kremer, Antoine and Delzon, Sylvain and Barbati, Anna and Marchetti, Marco and Corona, Piermaria and Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi and Kolström, Marja and Green, Tim and Reguera, Ricardo and Maroschek, Michael and Seidl, Rupert and Lexer, Manfred J. and Netherer, Sigrid},
  date = {2008},
  location = {{Brussels}},
  url = {http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/viewaceitem?aceitem_id=2202},
  abstract = {[Excerpt] This study compiles and summarizes the existing knowledge about observed and projected impacts of climate change on forests in Europe and reviews options for forests and forestry to adapt to climate change. It has been commissioned by the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission as an initial exploration of this complex issue. Forests are particularly sensitive to climate change, because the long life-span of trees does not allow for rapid adaptation to environmental changes. Adaptation measures for forestry need to be planned well in advance of expected changes in growing conditions because the forests regenerated today will have to cope with the future climate conditions of at least several decades, often even more than 100 years. Impacts of climate change and adaptation options were reviewed by synthesizing the existing knowledge from scientific literature, complemented with expert assessments. On-going and planned adaptation measures in EU27 Member States were surveyed with a questionnaire. The exposure to climate change was analysed by reviewing latest climate change scenario projections. The main impact factors affecting forests under climate change were reviewed. Next, the sensitivity to and potential impacts of climate change were analysed. After reviewing different components of the adaptive capacity of forests and forestry, vulnerability to climate change and related risks and opportunities were highlighted. Possible adaptation measures to respond to climate change were analysed. The results are presented for four main bioclimatic zones: Boreal, Temperate Oceanic, Temperate Continental, and the Mediterranean.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13350621,adaptation,climate-change,ecological-zones,europe,forest-resources},
  series = {Report {{AGRI}}-2007-{{G4}}-06}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{chuviecoNewGlobalBurned2016,
  title = {A New Global Burned Area Product for Climate Assessment of Fire Impacts},
  author = {Chuvieco, Emilio and Yue, Chao and Heil, Angelika and Mouillot, Florent and Alonso-Canas, Itziar and Padilla, Marc and Pereira, Jose M. and Oom, Duarte and Tansey, Kevin},
  date = {2016-05},
  journaltitle = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
  volume = {25},
  pages = {619--629},
  issn = {1466-822X},
  doi = {10.1111/geb.12440},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12440},
  abstract = {[Aim] This paper presents a new global burned area (BA) product developed within the framework of the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) programme, along with a first assessment of its potentials for atmospheric and carbon cycle modelling.

[Innovation] Methods are presented for generating a new global BA product, along with a comparison with existing BA products, in terms of BA extension, fire size and shapes and emissions derived from biomass burnings.

[Main conclusions] Three years of the global BA product were produced, accounting for a total BA of between 360 and 380 Mha year-1. General omission and commission errors for BA were 0.76 and 0.64, but they decreased to 0.51 and 0.52, respectively, for sites with more than 10\,\% BA. Intercomparison with other existing BA datasets found similar spatial and temporal trends, mainly with the BA included in the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4), although regional differences were found (particularly in the 2006 fires of eastern Europe). The simulated carbon emissions from biomass burning averaged 2.1 Pg C year-1.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257088,~to-add-doi-URL,burnt-area,carbon-emissions,climate-change,fire-emissions,global-scale,wildfires},
  number = {5}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{keeganClimateChangeForest2014,
  title = {Climate Change and Forest Fires Synergistically Drive Widespread Melt Events of the {{Greenland Ice Sheet}}},
  author = {Keegan, Kaitlin M. and Albert, Mary R. and McConnell, Joseph R. and Baker, Ian},
  date = {2014-05},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {111},
  pages = {7964--7967},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1405397111},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1405397111},
  abstract = {[Significance] 

Through an examination of shallow ice cores covering a wide area of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), we show that the same mechanism drove two widespread melt events that occurred over 100 years apart, in 1889 and 2012. We found that black carbon from forest fires and rising temperatures combined to cause both of these events, and that continued climate change may result in nearly annual melting of the surface of the GIS by the year 2100. In addition, a positive feedback mechanism may be set in motion whereby melt water is retained as refrozen ice layers within the snow pack, causing lower albedo and leaving the ice sheet surface even more susceptible to future melting.

[Abstract] 

In July 2012, over 97\,\% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13201161,albedo,black-carbon,climate-change,forest-fires,forest-resources,greenland,ice-sheet,long-range-transport,melting-acceleration,off-site-effects,postfire-impacts,transboundary-effects},
  number = {22}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{ludescherStatisticalSignificanceSeasonal2017,
  title = {Statistical Significance of Seasonal Warming/Cooling Trends},
  author = {Ludescher, Josef and Bunde, Armin and Schellnhuber, Hans J.},
  date = {2017-04},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {114},
  pages = {E2998-E3003},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1700838114},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1700838114},
  abstract = {[Significance]

The question whether a seasonal climatic trend (e.g., the increase of spring temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance because seasonal climatic trends may considerably affect ecological systems, agricultural yields, and human societies. Previous studies assumed that the seasonal records can be treated as independent and are characterized by short-term memory only. Here we show that both assumptions, which may lead to a considerable overestimation of the trend significance, do not apply to temperature data. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with the Holm-Bonferroni method, we demonstrate how to obtain reliable estimates of the statistical significance of seasonal climatic trends and apply our method to representative atmospheric temperature records of Antarctica.

 [Abstract]

The question whether a seasonal climate trend (e.g., the increase of summer temperatures in Antarctica in the last decades) is of anthropogenic or natural origin is of great importance for mitigation and adaption measures alike. The conventional significance analysis assumes that (i) the seasonal climate trends can be quantified by linear regression, (ii) the different seasonal records can be treated as independent records, and (iii) the persistence in each of these seasonal records can be characterized by short-term memory described by an autoregressive process of first order. Here we show that assumption ii is not valid, due to strong intraannual correlations by which different seasons are correlated. We also show that, even in the absence of correlations, for Gaussian white noise, the conventional analysis leads to a strong overestimation of the significance of the seasonal trends, because multiple testing has not been taken into account. In addition, when the data exhibit long-term memory (which is the case in most climate records), assumption iii leads to a further overestimation of the trend significance. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with the Holm-Bonferroni method, we demonstrate how to obtain reliable estimates of the significance of the seasonal climate trends in long-term correlated records. For an illustration, we apply our method to representative temperature records from West Antarctica, which is one of the fastest-warming places on Earth and belongs to the crucial tipping elements in the Earth system.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14334502,bias-correction,climate-change,mathematics,modelling,statistics},
  number = {15}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{broadmeadowClimateChangeFuture2005,
  title = {Climate Change and the Future for Broadleaved Tree Species in {{Britain}}},
  author = {Broadmeadow, M. S. J. and Ray, D. and Samuel, C. J. A.},
  date = {2005-05},
  journaltitle = {Forestry},
  volume = {78},
  pages = {145--161},
  issn = {1464-3626},
  doi = {10.1093/forestry/cpi014},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpi014},
  abstract = {The most recent climate change predictions for the UK indicate a warming of between 2 and 5°C by the end of this century, with drier summers and wetter winters also anticipated across the majority of the country. Changes are predicted to be more extreme in the southern half of the UK, where severe summer droughts will become commonplace. Although rising atmospheric CO2 levels are likely to increase productivity through 'fertilizing' photosynthesis, water limitation in southern England is likely to lead to an overall reduction in growth and increase in drought-induced mortality. Incorporation of, the climate change scenarios within the GIS model Ecological Site Classification indicates that in isolation, the effects of climate change will result in significant changes in species suitability. Under current definitions the majority of native broadleaf species are predicted to become unsuitable for commercial timber production in southern England. Genetic variability in local native populations may enable a degree of adaptation. Existing trials of ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) suggest that the best performing provenances are those from regions with a climate similar to that of the trial site. The selection of a provenance for climate change adaptation should be from a region with a current climate well matched to a planting site's predicted climate of the future. Climate matching analysis indicates that coastal areas of western France experience a climate similar to that predicted for southern England by 2050, while the more extreme scenarios predict climates better matched to the Mediterranean region at high elevation by the end of the century. The scale of climate change predictions indicates that, in southern England, native broadleaf species may be unsuitable for timber production on some soils. The planting of non-native species may need to be considered to maintain woodland cover and ensure a viable hardwood timber industry.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-157389,britain,broadleaved,climate-change,future,tree-species},
  number = {2}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{hofgaardInterrelationshipsTreelinePosition1997,
  title = {Inter-Relationships between Treeline Position, Species Diversity, Land Use and Climate Change in the {{Central Scandes Mountains}} of {{Norway}}},
  author = {Hofgaard, Annika},
  date = {1997-11},
  journaltitle = {Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters},
  volume = {6},
  pages = {419+},
  issn = {0960-7447},
  doi = {10.2307/2997351},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2307/2997351},
  abstract = {Vegetation samples collected along altitudinal transects through the treeline ecotone in the central Scandes Mountains, Norway, were used to analyse the relationships between species diversity, species turnover and the performance of the tree layer. The study area has a long history of extensive grazing by domestic animals. The floristic composition showed a continuous change along the boreal-alpine gradient. The number of species was more or less constant throughout 600 altitudinal m centred around the treeline, and the floristic similarity between neighbouring altitudes did not show any abrupt changes at any particular altitude. The treeline position (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) spanned 190 altitudinal m (range 980-1170 m a.s.l.). The number of trees and the basal area each decreased continuously with increasing altitude from 300 altitudinal m below the treeline. The number of birch saplings also decreased from c. 150 m below the treeline towards higher altitudes. Viable, but browsed populations of birch were present along the whole length of all transects, irrespective of aspect and geological substrate, with saplings present up to summit positions at 420 altitudinal m above the treeline. Due to browsing by sheep, mean sapling height at all altitudes above the treeline was 0.2 m. The results are discussed in terms of land use and climate change. It is concluded that future vegetation responses to diminished grazing pressure are likely to override responses forced by changing climate. Such responses could easily be misinterpreted as being governed by climate change, rather than by changes in land use.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12643014,anthropogenic-changes,betula-pubescens,browsing,climate-change,diversity,forest-resources,grazing,land,land-use,norway,species-richness,tree-line},
  number = {6}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{spathelfClimateChangeImpacts2014,
  title = {Climate Change Impacts in {{European}} Forests: The Expert Views of Local Observers},
  author = {Spathelf, Peter and van der Maaten, Ernst and van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke and Campioli, Matteo and Dobrowolska, Dorota},
  date = {2014},
  journaltitle = {Annals of Forest Science},
  volume = {71},
  pages = {131--137},
  issn = {1297-966X},
  doi = {10.1007/s13595-013-0280-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-013-0280-1},
  abstract = {[Excerpt] Forests respond differently to changes in climate depending on individual site characteristics and tree status. Site conditions may buffer or boost impacts of heat, drought, and storm events. Considering contemporary changes in climate (Christensen et al. 2007), warming may increase forest productivity in those parts of Europe where growth resources like soil water are not limiting (Nabuurs et al. 2002). However, under conditions of limited resource supply and changed disturbance regime, we may expect a reduction of forest productivity and vitality (Lindner et al. 2010). Major climatic impacts on forests include both singular extreme events (changing climate variability) that are difficult to predict in time and location, as well as less obvious gradual changes (changing mean values) (Bolte et al. 2010; Reyer et al. 2013).},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13361212,climate-change,europe,forest-pests,forest-resources,limiting-factor,primary-productivity},
  number = {2},
  options = {useprefix=true}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{dosioProjectionsClimateChange2016,
  title = {Projections of Climate Change Indices of Temperature and Precipitation from an Ensemble of Bias-Adjusted High-Resolution {{EURO}}-{{CORDEX}} Regional Climate Models},
  author = {Dosio, Alessandro},
  date = {2016-05},
  journaltitle = {J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.},
  volume = {121},
  pages = {2015JD024411-5511},
  issn = {2169-897X},
  doi = {10.1002/2015jd024411},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14053888},
  abstract = {Statistical bias-adjustment of climate models' outputs is being increasingly used for assessing the impact of climate change on several sectors. It is known that these techniques may alter the mean climate signal of the adjusted variable; however, the effect on the projected occurrence of climate extremes is less commonly investigated. Here the outputs of an ensemble of high-resolution (0.11°) regional climate models (RCM) from the Coordinated Regional-climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) have been bias adjusted, and a number of climate indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices have been calculated for the present (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100) climate. Indices include absolute-thresholds indices, percentile-based indices, and indices based on the duration of an event. Results show that absolute-threshold indices are largely affected by bias adjustment, as they depend strongly on both the present mean climate value (usually largely biased in the original RCMs) and its shift under climate change. The change of percentile-based indices is less affected by bias adjustment, as that of indices based on the duration of an event (e.g., consecutive dry days or heat waves) although the present climate value can differ between original and bias-adjusted results. Indices like R95ptot (the total amount of precipitation larger than the 95th reference percentile) are largely affected by bias adjustment, although, when analyzing an ensemble of RCMs, the differences are usually smaller than, or comparable to, the intermodel variability.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14053888,~to-add-doi-URL,bias-correction,climate-change,ipcc,ipcc-scenarios,precipitation,temperature},
  number = {10}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{ungarClimateTwinsAttempt2011,
  title = {Climate Twins - {{An}} Attempt to Quantify Climatological Similarities},
  author = {Ungar, Joachim and Peters-Anders, Jan and Loibl, Wolfgang},
  editor = {Hřeb́ıček, Jiř́ı and Schimak, Gerald and Denzer, Ralf},
  date = {2011},
  journaltitle = {IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology},
  volume = {359},
  pages = {428--436},
  issn = {1868-4238},
  doi = {10.1007/978-3-642-22285-6_46},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22285-6_46},
  abstract = {As climate change appears, strategies and actions will be necessary to cope with its effects on environment and society in the coming decades. Current climate conditions can be observed everywhere in the world but future climate conditions can only be estimated through climate simulations which produce huge amounts of quantitative data. This data leads to statements like ” temperature increase is expected to exceed 2.6°C” or similar and remain fuzzy to non-experts in climate research. The Climate Twins application is designed to communicate climate changes in an intuitive and understandable way by showing regions which have now similar climate conditions according to a given Point of Interest (POI) in the future. This paper explains how the application seeks for locations with similar climatological patterns according to the POI. To achieve this goal a method has been developed to quantify similarity between two locations' climate data.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14309428,climate,climate-change,indicators,indices,multiplicity,similarity}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{pacalaStabilizationWedgesSolving2004,
  title = {Stabilization Wedges: {{Solving}} the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies},
  author = {Pacala, S. and Socolow, R.},
  date = {2004},
  journaltitle = {Science},
  volume = {305},
  pages = {968--972},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1100103},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100103},
  abstract = {Humanity already possesses the fundamental scientific, technical, and industrial know-how to solve the carbon and climate problem for the next half-century. A portfolio of technologies now exists to meet the world's energy needs over the next 50 years and limit atmospheric CO2 to a trajectory that avoids a doubling of the preindustrial concentration. Every element in this portfolio has passed beyond the laboratory bench and demonstration project; many are already implemented somewhere at full industrial scale. Although no element is a credible candidate for doing the entire job (or even half the job) by itself, the portfolio as a whole is large enough that not every element has to be used.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12344749,climate-change,mitigation,technology},
  number = {5686}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{tierneyAbruptShiftsHorn2013,
  title = {Abrupt Shifts in {{Horn}} of {{Africa}} Hydroclimate since the {{Last Glacial Maximum}}},
  author = {Tierney, Jessica E. and {deMenocal}, Peter B.},
  date = {2013-10},
  journaltitle = {Science},
  volume = {342},
  pages = {843--846},
  issn = {0036-8075},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1240411},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1240411},
  abstract = {The timing and abruptness of the initiation and termination of the Early Holocene African Humid Period are a subject of ongoing debate, with direct consequences for our understanding of abrupt climate change, paleoenvironments, and early human cultural development. Here, we provide proxy evidence from the Horn of Africa region that documents abrupt transitions into and out of the African Humid Period in northeast Africa. Similar and generally synchronous abrupt transitions at other East African sites suggest that rapid shifts in hydroclimate are a regionally coherent feature. Our analysis suggests that the termination of the African Humid Period in the Horn of Africa occurred within centuries, underscoring the non-linearity of the region's hydroclimate.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12721006,climate-change,desertification,deserts,feedback,non-linearity,paleo-climate,past-observations,system-catastrophe,tipping-point},
  number = {6160}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{yang500yearTreeringRecord2014,
  title = {A 3,500-Year Tree-Ring Record of Annual Precipitation on the Northeastern {{Tibetan Plateau}}},
  author = {Yang, Bao and Qin, Chun and Wang, Jianglin and He, Minhui and Melvin, Thomas M. and Osborn, Timothy J. and Briffa, Keith R.},
  date = {2014-02},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {111},
  pages = {2903--2908},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1319238111},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1319238111},
  abstract = {[Significance] 

This paper describes the production and climatic interpretation of a tree-ring width chronology that is currently the longest, absolutely dated series produced for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and one of the longest in the world. The method of chronology construction enables comparison of variations in precipitation totals over long timescales as well as shorter periods. Precipitation in this region during the last 50 years has been historically high -- likely higher than for any equivalent length period in at least 3,500 years, even when considering the chronology and interpretational uncertainty. Notable dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. [Abstract] 

An annually resolved and absolutely dated ring-width chronology spanning 4,500 y has been constructed using subfossil, archaeological, and living-tree juniper samples from the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The chronology represents changing mean annual precipitation and is most reliable after 1500 B.C. Reconstructed precipitation for this period displays a trend toward more moist conditions: the last 10-, 25-, and 50-y periods all appear to be the wettest in at least three and a half millennia. Notable historical dry periods occurred in the 4th century BCE and in the second half of the 15th century CE. The driest individual year reconstructed (since 1500 B.C.) is 1048 B.C., whereas the wettest is 2010. Precipitation variability in this region appears not to be associated with inferred changes in Asian monsoon intensity during recent millennia. The chronology displays a statistical association with the multidecadal and longer-term variability of reconstructed mean Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the last two millennia. This suggests that any further large-scale warming might be associated with even greater moisture supply in this region.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13072253,china,climate-change,field-measurements,forest-resources,himalayan-region,paleo-climate,past-observations,precipitation,temperature,tibet},
  number = {8}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{temunovicIdentifyingRefugiaClimate2013,
  title = {Identifying Refugia from Climate Change Using Coupled Ecological and Genetic Data in a Transitional {{Mediterranean}}-Temperate Tree Species},
  author = {Temunović, M. and Frascaria-Lacoste, N. and Franjić, J. and Satovic, Z. and Fernández-Manjarrés, J. F.},
  date = {2013-04},
  journaltitle = {Molecular Ecology},
  volume = {22},
  pages = {2128--2142},
  issn = {0962-1083},
  doi = {10.1111/mec.12252},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.12252},
  abstract = {Populations occurring in areas of overlap between the current and future distribution of a species are particularly important because they can represent ” refugia from climate change”. We coupled ecological and range-wide genetic variation data to detect such areas and to evaluate the impacts of habitat suitability changes on the genetic diversity of the transitional Mediterranean-temperate tree Fraxinus angustifolia. We sampled and genotyped 38 natural populations comprising 1006 individuals from across Europe. We found the highest genetic diversity in western and northern Mediterranean populations, as well as a significant west to east decline in genetic diversity. Areas of potential refugia that correspond to approximately 70\,\% of the suitable habitat may support the persistence of more than 90\,\% of the total number of alleles in the future. Moreover, based on correlations between Bayesian genetic assignment and climate, climate change may favour the westward spread of the Black Sea gene pool in the long term. Overall, our results suggest that the northerly core areas of the current distribution contain the most important part of the genetic variation for this species and may serve as in situ macrorefugia from ongoing climate change. However, rear-edge populations of the southern Mediterranean may be exposed to a potential loss of unique genetic diversity owing to habitat suitability changes unless populations can persist in microrefugia that have facilitated such persistence in the past.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14147786,climate-change,climate-refugia,ecology,forest-resources,fraxinus-angustifolia,genetic-diversity,mediterranean-region,temperate-climate},
  number = {8}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{amatulliProjectingFutureBurnt2009,
  title = {Projecting Future Burnt Area in the {{EU}}-{{Mediterranean}} Countries under {{IPCC SRES A2}}/{{B2}} Climate Change Scenarios},
  author = {Amatulli, Giuseppe and Camia, Andrea and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús},
  editor = {Chuvieco, E. and Lasaponara, R.},
  date = {2009},
  pages = {33--38},
  url = {http://www.spatial-ecology.net/dokuwiki/doku.php?id=wiki:firemod},
  abstract = {The goal of this work is to use the results of statistical modelling of historical (1985-2004) monthly burnt areas in European Mediterranean countries, as a function of monthly weather data and derived fire danger indexes, and to analyse potential trends under present and future climate conditions. Meteorological variables were extracted from the ECMWF, and the FWI system components were computed from 1961 until 2004. Monthly averages of the indexes were used as explanatory variables in a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, to estimate the monthly burnt areas in each of the five most affected Mediterranean countries of Europe. Significant regression equations and satisfactory coefficient of determinations were found, although with remarkable differences among countries. Two IPCC SRES climate change scenarios (A2/B2) were simulated using the the regional climate model HIRHAM. The multiple regression models were than applied to the A2/B2 scenarios results to predict the potential burnt areas in each country. The models pointed out tangible changes in the potential burnt area extent for the future scenarios compared to the actual conditions.},
  issue = {JRC55149},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11896019,array-programming,awk,climate-change,computational-science,forest-fires,forest-resources,gnu-r,mediterranean-region,reproducible-research}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kerrClimateChangeAtlantic2014,
  title = {Climate Change. {{Atlantic}} Current Can Shut down for Centuries, Disrupting Climate.},
  author = {Kerr, Richard A.},
  date = {2014-02},
  journaltitle = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
  volume = {343},
  pages = {831},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.343.6173.831},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.343.6173.831},
  abstract = {[excerpt] For decades, climate scientists have cast a worried eye at the grand ocean circulation that draws warm southern waters into the North Atlantic. A shutdown due to global warming -- a possibility hinted at by some climate models -- would not bury Manhattan under a tsunami of ice, as one Hollywood disaster movie had it. But it would unsettle climate around the North Atlantic and beyond. Now, researchers have hard evidence that the real Atlantic circulation did indeed abruptly slow or perhaps even stop for centuries at a time more than 100,000 years ago, when the world was only a bit warmer than today. [...]},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13056421,climate-change,non-linearity,ocean-circulation,paleo-climate,system-catastrophe,tipping-point},
  number = {6173}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{patzImpactRegionalClimate2005,
  title = {Impact of Regional Climate Change on Human Health},
  author = {Patz, Jonathan A. and Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid and Holloway, Tracey and Foley, Jonathan A.},
  date = {2005-11},
  journaltitle = {Nature},
  volume = {438},
  pages = {310--317},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature04188},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04188},
  abstract = {The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30~years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-398018,anthropogenic-changes,climate-change,global-warming,high-impact-publication,human-health,precipitation,regional-scale},
  number = {7066}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kellomakiSensitivityManagedBoreal2008,
  title = {Sensitivity of Managed Boreal Forests in {{Finland}} to Climate Change, with Implications for Adaptive Management},
  author = {Kellomäki, Seppo and Peltola, Heli and Nuutinen, Tuula and Korhonen, Kari T. and Strandman, Harri},
  date = {2008-07},
  journaltitle = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
  volume = {363},
  pages = {2339--2349},
  issn = {1471-2970},
  doi = {10.1098/rstb.2007.2204},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.2204},
  abstract = {This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70°{$\mkern1mu$}N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44\,\%, with an increase of 82\,\% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-8860120,climate-change,finland,forest-resources,habitat-suitability,picea-abies,pinus-sylvestris,wood-production},
  number = {1501}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@report{bachnerLandTransportSystems2015,
  title = {Land Transport Systems under Climate Change: A Macroeconomic Assessment of Adaptation Measures for the Case of {{Austria}}},
  author = {Bachner, Gabriel},
  date = {2015},
  institution = {{Department of Economics Department of Public Economics University of Graz}},
  url = {https://ideas.repec.org/p/grz/wpaper/2015-01.html},
  abstract = {In the light of climate change, transport systems become increasingly stressed by extreme weather and gradual climatic changes, resulting in direct costs which arise in the affected sector as well as indirect costs due to economic spill-over effects. To attenuate these costs, sector specific adaptation measures are needed, raising the question of the net-benefits of adaptation at a macroeconomic level. However, despite their importance such assessments of impacts and adaptation at the macro-level are scarce and coarse in their implementation. This paper contributes to fill this research gap by analyzing specific adaptation measures for the land transport sectors. To reveal both direct and indirect effects of impacts and adaptation a computable general equilibrium model is deployed. Results confirm the importance of a macroeconomic framework since the indirect effects are found to be larger than the direct ones due to strong economic interlinkages with the transport system. Adaptation measures are able to reduce climate change induced GDP and welfare losses as well as unemployment; even though adaptation does not always seem economically reasonable at the business level.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13530150,adaptation,australia,climate-change,economic-impacts,featured-publication,transport-system},
  number = {GEP 2015-01}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@incollection{tettAnthropogenicForcingsAssociated2018,
  title = {Anthropogenic Forcings and Associated Changes in Fire Risk in {{Western North America}} and {{Australia}} during 2015-2016},
  booktitle = {Bulletin of the {{American Meteorological Society}}},
  author = {Tett, Simon and Falk, Alexander and Rogers, Megan and Spuler, Fiona and Turner, Calum and Wainwright, Joshua and Dimdore-Miles, Oscar and Knight, Sam and Freychet, Nicolas and Mineter, Michael and Lehmann, Caroline},
  editor = {Herring, Stephanie C. and Christidis, Nikolaos and Hoell, Andrew and Kossin, James P. and Schreck, Carl J. and Stott, Peter A.},
  date = {2018-01},
  volume = {99},
  pages = {S60-S64},
  publisher = {{American Meteorological Society (AMS)}},
  location = {{Boston, United States}},
  issn = {1520-0477},
  doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0096.1},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14503360},
  abstract = {Extreme vapor pressure deficits (VPD) have been associated with enhanced wildfire risk. Using one model, we found for 2015/16 that human influences quintupled the risk of extreme VPD for western North America and increased the risk for extratropical Australia.

[Excerpt: Introduction] In 2016, about 3.6 million hectares of land burned in the United States and Canada (NIFC 2017; NFD 2017). In Canada, a wildfire southwest of Fort McMurray, Alberta, caused the largest wildfire evacuation in Alberta's history and destroyed 2400 homes in 2016 (McConnell 2016). Abatzoglou and Williams (2016; AP16 from hereon) showed that anthropogenic climate change has increased forest fire activity in the western United States. This raises the question if anthropogenic forcing are increasing the risk of devastating events outside this region such as the Canadian Fort McMurray fire.

[] During the Australian summer of 2015/16, the country experienced high numbers of bushfires: the southwest and southeast of the country were most affected with more than 100 000 hectares of vegetation burned in Tasmania (ABC News 2016a). Over the course of this summer, 408 residential and 500 nonresidential buildings were destroyed nationwide. This fire season was moderately destructive with insured losses of about AUD \$350 million (ABC News 2016b).

[] AP16 found for the western United States a strong link between the spring-summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the annual burned area. In this paper, we build on this work using monthly average VPD as a proxy for fire risk during the summer of 2016 for extratropical Australia (October-February) and western North America (May-August) though this link has not been directly established for either region. VPD is an absolute measure of the state of atmospheric moisture, specifically the difference between the saturation vapor pressure and the actual vapor pressure of the atmosphere (Seagar et al. 2015). Changes in VPD are associated with the drying of both live vegetation and litter fuels, and it is only when vegetation and litter fuels are sufficiently dry that fires can both ignite and spread (Bradstock 2010).

[] [...]},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14503360,~to-add-doi-URL,anthropogenic-impacts,australia,burnt-area,climate-change,climate-extremes,extreme-events,extreme-weather,north-america,risk-assessment,vapour-pressure-deficit,wildfires},
  number = {1},
  series = {Bulletin of the {{American Meteorological Society}}}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{panditHimalayasMustBe2013,
  title = {The {{Himalayas}} Must Be Protected},
  author = {Pandit, Maharaj K.},
  date = {2013-09},
  journaltitle = {Nature},
  volume = {501},
  pages = {283},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/501283a},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/501283a},
  abstract = {Climate change and human activities are pushing the fragile ecosystem ever closer to instability, warns Maharaj K. Pandit.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12634465,climate-change,disasters,ecosystem-change,ecosystem-resilience,himalayan-region,science-policy-interface,uncertainty},
  number = {7467}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{moraGlobalRiskDeadly2017,
  title = {Global Risk of Deadly Heat},
  author = {Mora, Camilo and Dousset, Bénédicte and Caldwell, Iain R. and Powell, Farrah E. and Geronimo, Rollan C. and Bielecki, Coral R. and Counsell, Chelsie W. W. and Dietrich, Bonnie S. and Johnston, Emily T. and Louis, Leo V. and Lucas, Matthew P. and McKenzie, Marie M. and Shea, Alessandra G. and Tseng, Han and Giambelluca, Thomas W. and Leon, Lisa R. and Hawkins, Ed and Trauernicht, Clay},
  date = {2017-06},
  journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
  volume = {7},
  pages = {501--506},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate3322},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14381161},
  abstract = {Climate change can increase the risk of conditions that exceed human thermoregulatory capacity. Although numerous studies report increased mortality associated with extreme heat events, quantifying the global risk of heat-related mortality remains challenging due to a lack of comparable data on heat-related deaths. Here we conducted a global analysis of documented lethal heat events to identify the climatic conditions associated with human death and then quantified the current and projected occurrence of such deadly climatic conditions worldwide. We reviewed papers published between 1980 and 2014, and found 783 cases of excess human mortality associated with heat from 164 cities in 36 countries. Based on the climatic conditions of those lethal heat events, we identified a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity become deadly. Around 30\,\% of the world's population is currently exposed to climatic conditions exceeding this deadly threshold for at least 20 days a year. By 2100, this percentage is projected to increase to ̃48\,\% under a scenario with drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and ̃74\,\% under a scenario of growing emissions. An increasing threat to human life from excess heat now seems almost inevitable, but will be greatly aggravated if greenhouse gases are not considerably reduced.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14381161,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,extreme-events,extreme-weather,heatwaves,human-health,humidity,rcp26,rcp45,rcp85,temperature},
  number = {7}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{phillipsDroughtSensitivityAmazon2009,
  title = {Drought Sensitivity of the {{Amazon}} Rainforest},
  author = {Phillips, O. L. and Aragao, L. E. O. C. and Lewis, S. L. and Fisher, J. B. and Lloyd, J. and Lopez-Gonzalez, G. and Malhi, Y. and Monteagudo, A. and Peacock, J. and Quesada, C. A. and van der Heijden, G. and Almeida, S. and Amaral, I. and Arroyo, L. and Aymard, G. and Baker, T. R. and Banki, O. and Blanc, L. and Bonal, D. and Brando, P. and Chave, J. and de Oliveira, A. C. A. and Cardozo, N. D. and Czimczik, C. I. and Feldpausch, T. R. and Freitas, M. A. and Gloor, E. and Higuchi, N. and Jimenez, E. and Lloyd, G. and Meir, P. and Mendoza, C. and Morel, A. and Neill, D. A. and Nepstad, D. and Patino, S. and Penuela, M. C. and Prieto, A. and Ramirez, F. and Schwarz, M. and Silva, J. and Silveira, M. and Thomas, A. S. and {Steege} and Stropp, J. and Vasquez, R. and Zelazowski, P. and Davila, E. A. and Andelman, S. and Andrade, A. and Chao, K. J. and Erwin, T. and Di Fiore, A. and {C., E. H.} and Keeling, H. and Killeen, T. J. and Laurance, W. F. and Cruz, A. P. and Pitman, N. C. A. and Vargas, P. N. and Ramirez-Angulo, H. and Rudas, A. and Salamao, R. and Silva, N. and Terborgh, J. and Torres-Lezama, A.},
  date = {2009-03},
  journaltitle = {Science},
  volume = {323},
  pages = {1344--1347},
  issn = {0036-8075},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1164033},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/6664284},
  abstract = {Amazon forests are a key but poorly understood component of the global carbon cycle. If, as anticipated, they dry this century, they might accelerate climate change through carbon losses and changed surface energy balances. We used records from multiple long-term monitoring plots across Amazonia to assess forest responses to the intense 2005 drought, a possible analog of future events. Affected forest lost biomass, reversing a large long-term carbon sink, with the greatest impacts observed where the dry season was unusually intense. Relative to pre-2005 conditions, forest subjected to a 100-millimeter increase in water deficit lost 5.3 megagrams of aboveground biomass of carbon per hectare. The drought had a total biomass carbon impact of 1.2 to 1.6 petagrams (1.2 × 1015 to 1.6 × 1015 grams). Amazon forests therefore appear vulnerable to increasing moisture stress, with the potential for large carbon losses to exert feedback on climate change.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-6664284,~to-add-doi-URL,amazonia,biomass,carbon-cycle,climate-change,climate-extremes,droughts,extreme-events,forest-biomass,forest-resources,global-scale,organic-carbon,tropical-forests},
  number = {5919},
  options = {useprefix=true}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{moreiraLandscapeWildfireInteractions2011,
  title = {Landscape - Wildfire Interactions in Southern {{Europe}}: Implications for Landscape Management},
  author = {Moreira, Francisco and Viedma, Olga and Arianoutsou, Margarita and Curt, Thomas and Koutsias, Nikos and Rigolot, Eric and Barbati, Anna and Corona, Piermaria and Vaz, Pedro and Xanthopoulos, Gavriil and Mouillot, Florent and Bilgili, Ertugrul},
  date = {2011-10},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Environmental Management},
  volume = {92},
  pages = {2389--2402},
  issn = {0301-4797},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2011.06.028},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/9597979},
  abstract = {[Abstract] 

Every year approximately half a million hectares of land are burned by wildfires in southern Europe, causing large ecological and socio-economic impacts. Climate and land use changes in the last decades have increased fire risk and danger. In this paper we review the available scientific knowledge on the relationships between landscape and wildfires in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on its application for defining landscape management guidelines and policies that could be adopted in order to promote landscapes with lower fire hazard. The main findings are that (1) socio-economic drivers have favoured land cover changes contributing to increasing fire hazard in the last decades, (2) large wildfires are becoming more frequent, (3) increased fire frequency is promoting homogeneous landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands; (4) landscape planning to reduce fuel loads may be successful only if fire weather conditions are not extreme. The challenges to address these problems and the policy and landscape management responses that should be adopted are discussed, along with major knowledge gaps.

[Highlights]

[::] We reviewed landscape-wildfire relationships in Southern Europe. [::] Recent land cover changes contributed to increase fire hazard in the last decades. [::] Large wildfires are becoming more frequent. [::] Increased fire frequency is creating landscapes covered by fire-prone shrublands. [::] Landscape planning to reduce fire hazard works only if fire weather is not extreme.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-9597979,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,burnt-area,check-list,climate-change,disturbances,extreme-weather,fire-fuel,fire-hazard,fire-regimes,fire-severity,fire-weather-index,forest-fires,forest-resources,land-management,land-use-land-cover-changes,landscape-changes,landscape-dynamics,mediterranean-region,mitigation,shrubs,southern-europe,vegetation-changes,wildfires},
  number = {10}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{lentonClimateTippingPoints2019,
  title = {Climate Tipping Points - Too Risky to Bet Against},
  author = {Lenton, Timothy M. and Rockström, Johan and Gaffney, Owen and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Richardson, Katherine and Steffen, Will and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim},
  date = {2019-11},
  journaltitle = {Nature},
  volume = {575},
  pages = {592--595},
  doi = {10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0},
  urldate = {2019-11-29},
  abstract = {The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions.

[Excerpt]
[\textbackslash n] [...]
We define emergency (E) as the product of risk and urgency. Risk (R) is defined by insurers as probability (p) multiplied by damage (D). Urgency (U) is defined in emergency situations as reaction time to an alert (τ) divided by the intervention time left to avoid a bad outcome (T). Thus:

[\textbackslash n] E = R × U = p × D × τ / T

[\textbackslash n] The situation is an emergency if both risk and urgency are high. If reaction time is longer than the intervention time left (τ\,/\,T\,{$>$}\,1), we have lost control.

[\textbackslash n] [...]},
  keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-68WDKY9P,climate-change,definition,emergency-events,global-change,global-scale,risk-assessment,terminology,tipping-point},
  langid = {english},
  number = {7784}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{linaresSilverFirDefoliation2012,
  title = {Silver Fir Defoliation Likelihood Is Related to Negative Growth Trends and High Warming Sensitivity at Their Southernmost Distribution Limit},
  author = {Linares, Juan C. and Camarero, Julio J.},
  date = {2012},
  journaltitle = {ISRN Forestry},
  volume = {2012},
  pages = {1--8},
  issn = {2090-892X},
  doi = {10.5402/2012/437690},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5402/2012/437690},
  abstract = {Changes in radial growth have been used to estimate tree decline probability since they may indicate tree responses to long- and short-term stressors. We used visual assessments of crown defoliation, an indicator of decline, and retrospective tree-ring analyses to determine whether climate-growth sensitivity and tree growth rates may be used as predictors of tree die-off probability in Abies alba (silver fir) at the Spanish Pyrenees. We used climatic data to calculate standardized temperature and precipitation data and drought indexes. Basal area increment was measured for declining (defoliation {$>$} 50\,\%) and nondeclining (defoliation {$<$} 50\,\%) silver firs in stands with contrasting defoliation. Logistic regressions were applied to predict tree die-off. Since the early 1980s, a synchronised reduction in basal area increment was observed in declining trees. The basal area increment trend correctly classified 64\,\% of declining trees and 94\,\% of nondeclining trees. The growth sensitivity to water deficit, temperature, and a drought index also significantly predicted silver fir decline, but providing underestimated predictions. Our findings underscore the idea that long-term climatic warming seems to be a major driver of growth decline in silver fir. Ongoing growth reduction and enhanced mortality may promote vegetation shifts in declining Pyrenean A. alba forests.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14307410,abies-alba,basal-area,climate-change,defoliation,die-off,drought-tolerance,droughts,fir-decline,forest-resources,global-warming,precipitation,pyrenees-region,spain,temperature}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{giulianiRobustnessReallyRobust2016,
  title = {Is Robustness Really Robust? {{How}} Different Definitions of Robustness Impact Decision-Making under Climate Change},
  author = {Giuliani, Matteo and Castelletti, Andrea},
  date = {2016},
  journaltitle = {Climatic Change},
  volume = {135},
  pages = {409--424},
  issn = {1573-1480},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1586-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1586-9},
  abstract = {Robust decision-making is being increasingly used to support environmental resources decisions and policy analysis under changing climate and society. In this context, a robust decision is a decision that is as much as possible insensitive to a large degree of uncertainty and ensures certain performance across multiple plausible futures. Yet, the concept of robustness is neither unique nor static. Multiple robustness metrics, such as maximin, optimism-pessimism, max regret, have been proposed in the literature, reflecting diverse optimistic/pessimistic attitudes by the decision maker. Further, these attitudes can evolve in time as a response to sequences of favorable (or adverse) events, inducing possible dynamic changes in the robustness metrics. In this paper, we explore the impact of alternative definitions of robustness and their evolution in time for a case of water resources system management under changing climate. We study the decisions of the Lake Como operator, who is called to regulate the lake by balancing irrigation supply and flood control, under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Results show a considerable variability in the system performance across multiple robustness metrics. In fact, the mis-definition of the actual decision maker's attitude biases the simulation of its future decisions and produces a general underestimation of the system performance. The analysis of the dynamic evolution of the decision maker's preferences further confirms the potentially strong impact of changing robustness definition on the decision-making outcomes. Climate change impact assessment studies should therefore include the definition of robustness among the uncertain parameters of the problem in order to analyze future human decisions under uncertainty.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14279187,climate-change,comparison,management,optimisation,rcp45,rcp85,robust-modelling,water-resources},
  number = {3-4}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@incollection{bugmannClimateChangeImpacts2014,
  title = {Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species, Forest Properties, and Ecosystem Services},
  booktitle = {Toward {{Quantitative Scenarios}} of {{Climate Change Impacts}} in {{Switzerland}}},
  author = {Bugmann, H. and Brang, P. and Elkin, C. and Henne, P. and Jakoby, O. and Lévesque, M. and Lischke, H. and Psomas, A. and Rigling, A. and Wermelinger, B. and Zimmermann, N. E.},
  editor = {Appenzeller, C. and Fischer, E. M. and Fuhrer, J. and Grosjean, M. and Hohmann, R. and Joos, F. and Raible, C. C. and Ritz, C. and Raible, C. C. and Strassmann, K. M.},
  date = {2014},
  pages = {79--88},
  publisher = {{OCCR, FOEN, MeteoSwiss, C2SM, Agroscope and ProClim}},
  location = {{Bern, Switzerland}},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/13590963},
  abstract = {[::] Swiss forests experience strong impacts under the CH2011 scenarios, partly even for the low greenhouse gas scenario RCP3PD. Negative impacts prevail in low-elevation forests, whereas mostly positive impacts are expected in high-elevation forests. 

[::] Major changes in the distribution of the two most important tree species, Norway spruce and European beech, are expected. Growth conditions for spruce improve in a broad range of scenarios at presently cool high-elevation sites with plentiful preci- pitation, but in the case of strong warming (A1B and A2) spruce and beech are at risk in large parts of the swiss plateau. 

[::] High elevation forests that are temperature-limited will show little change in species composition but an increase in biomass. In contrast, forests at low elevations in warm-dry inner-alpine valleys are sensitive to even moderate warming and may no longer sustain current biomass and species. 

[::] Timber production potential, carbon storage, and protection from avalanches and rockfall react differently to climate change, with an overall tendency to deteriorate at low elevations, and improve at high elevations. 

[::] Climate change will affect forests also indirectly, e.g., by increasing the risk of infestation by spruce bark beetles, which will profit from an extended flight period and will produce more generations per year.},
  isbn = {978-3-033-04406-7},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13590963,biodiversity-impacts,climate-change,forest-resources,switzerland}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{bediaForestFireDanger2014,
  title = {Forest Fire Danger Projections in the {{Mediterranean}} Using {{ENSEMBLES}} Regional Climate Change Scenarios},
  author = {Bedia, J. and Herrera, S. and Camia, A. and Moreno, J. M. and Gutiérrez, J. M.},
  date = {2014},
  journaltitle = {Climatic Change},
  volume = {122},
  pages = {185--199},
  issn = {1573-1480},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-1005-z},
  url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14160026},
  abstract = {We present future fire danger scenarios for the countries bordering the Mediterranean areas of Europe and north Africa building on a multi-model ensemble of state-of-the-art regional climate projections from the EU-funded project ENSEMBLES. Fire danger is estimated using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and a related set of indices. To overcome some of the limitations of ENSEMBLES data for their application on the FWI System -- recently highlighted in a previous study by Herrera et al. (Clim Chang 118:827-840, 2013) -- we used an optimal proxy variable combination. A robust assessment of future fire danger projections is undertaken by disentangling the climate change signal from the uncertainty derived from the multi-model ensemble, unveiling a positive signal of fire danger potential over large areas of the Mediterranean. The increase in the fire danger signal is accentuated towards the latest part of the transient period, thus pointing to an elevated fire potential in the region with time. The fire-climate links under present and future conditions are further discussed building upon observed climate data and burned area records along a representative climatic gradient within the study region.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14160026,~to-add-doi-URL,burnt-area,climate-change,comparison,fire-weather-index,forest-fires,forest-resources,ipcc-scenarios,mediterranean-region,regression,robust-modelling,wildfires},
  number = {1-2}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kleinbauerClimateChangeMight2010,
  title = {Climate Change Might Drive the Invasive Tree {{Robinia}} Pseudacacia into Nature Reserves and Endangered Habitats},
  author = {Kleinbauer, I. and Dullinger, S. and Peterseil, J. and Essl, F.},
  date = {2010-02},
  journaltitle = {Biological Conservation},
  volume = {143},
  pages = {382--390},
  issn = {0006-3207},
  doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2009.10.024},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.10.024},
  abstract = {Static networks of nature reserves disregard the dynamics of species ranges in changing environments. In fact, climate warming has been shown to potentially drive endangered species out of reserves. Less attention has been paid to the related problem that a warmer climate may also foster the invasion of alien species into reserve networks. Here, we use niche-based predictive modelling to assess to which extent the Austrian Natura 2000 network and a number of habitat types of conservation value outside this network might be prone to climate warming driven changes in invasion risk by Robinia pseudacacia L., one of the most problematic alien plants in Europe. Results suggest that the area potentially invaded by R. pseudacacia will increase considerably under a warmer climate. Interestingly, invasion risk will grow at a higher than average rate for most of the studied habitat types but less than the national average in Natura 2000 sites. This result points to a potential bias in legal protection towards high mountain areas which largely will remain too cold for R. pseudacacia. In contrast, the selected habitat types are more frequent in montane or lower lying regions, where R. pseudacacia invasion risk will increase most pronouncedly. We conclude that management plans of nature reserves should incorporate global warming driven changes in invasion risk in a more explicit manner. In case of R. pseudacacia, reducing propagule pressure by avoiding purposeful plantation in the neighbourhood of reserves and endangered habitats is a simple but crucial measure to prevent further invasion under a warmer climate.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-6334520,alien-species,climate-change,climatic-niche-shift,ecosystem-invasibility,forest-resources,habitat-conservation,habitat-suitability,invasive-species,protection,robinia-pseudoacacia},
  number = {2}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@inproceedings{estreguilIntegratedModelingLarge2013,
  title = {Integrated Modeling of Large Scale Forest Patterns and Connectivity of Protected Areas and Relevance in the Context of Ecosystem Services and Climate Change},
  booktitle = {{{FORECOM}}: {{Forest}} Cover Changes in Mountainous Regions - Drivers, Trajectories and Implications},
  author = {Estreguil, Christine and Caudullo, Giovanni and de Rigo, Daniele and Whitmore, Ceri and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús},
  date = {2013},
  publisher = {{Institute of Geography and Spatial Management of the Jagiellonian University}},
  url = {http://www.gis.geo.uj.edu.pl/forecom/OpeningConference2013/presentations.html},
  abstract = {The mitigation of ecosystem fragmentation is important in Target 2 of the new European Biodiversity strategy to 2020, aiming at the maintenance and enhancement of ecosystem services (e.g. habitat provision, disturbance regulation, climate change mitigation). Better knowledge on patterns, fragmentation processes and functional connectivity of focal ecosystem is needed within and between protected areas as well as in the wider country side.  An overview of JRC activities is given on tools, models and applications for a European-wide improved and harmonised reporting on forest patterns and connectivity (fragmentation). The recently available generic, reproducible and integrated characterisation of patterns based on three models and a set of indices is presented. National profiles of forest pattern in the wider country side are shown on forest morphological shapes, fragmentation landscape pattern, edge interfaces and connectivity. The connectivity of Natura2000 forest sites is then computed in few countries (Spain, Belgium, Germany and Poland), and results allow for comparison of the connectivity index value across countries and the identification of key-sites and gaps in connectivity. The presentation finally introduces the dedicated pattern web map viewer which is now available from the European Forest Data Centre (EFDAC) for data viewing and query.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12238517,climate-change,connectivity,ecosystem-services,environmental-modelling,forest-resources,integrated-modelling,integration-techniques,landscape-modelling,spatial-pattern},
  options = {useprefix=true},
  venue = {Kraków, Poland}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{spinoniSpatialPatternsEuropean2015,
  title = {Spatial Patterns of {{European}} Droughts under a Moderate Emission Scenario},
  author = {Spinoni, J. and Naumann, G. and Vogt, J.},
  date = {2015-07},
  journaltitle = {Advances in Science and Research},
  volume = {12},
  pages = {179--186},
  issn = {1992-0636},
  doi = {10.5194/asr-12-179-2015},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-179-2015},
  abstract = {Meteorological drought is generally defined as a prolonged deficiency of precipitation and is considered one of the most relevant natural hazards as the related impacts can involve many different sectors. In this study, we investigated the spatial patterns of European droughts for the periods 1981-2010, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, focusing on the projections under a moderate emissions scenario. To do that, we used the outputs of the KNMI-RACMO2 model, which belongs to the A1B family and whose spatial resolution is 0.25° × 0.25°. By means of monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), we computed the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at the 12-month accumulation scale. Thereafter, we separately obtained drought frequency, duration, severity, and intensity for the whole of Europe, excluding Iceland. According to both indicators, the spatial drought patterns are projected to follow what recently characterized Europe: southern Europe, who experienced many severe drought events in the last decades, is likely to be involved by longer, more frequent, severe, and intense droughts in the near future (2041-2070) and even more in the far future (2071-2100). This tendency is more evident using the SPEI, which also depends on temperature and consequently reflects the expected warming that will be highest for the Mediterranean area in Europe. On the other side, less severe and fewer drought events are likely to occur in northern Europe. This tendency is more evident using the SPI, because the precipitation increase is projected to outbalance the temperature (and PET) rise in particular in Scandinavia. Regarding the mid-latitudes, the SPEI-based analyses point at more frequent drought events, while the SPI-based ones point at less frequent events in these regions.

[Excerpt: Conclusions] In this study we investigated the tendency of drought events in Europe until 2100 under a moderate emissions scenario, the KNMI-RACMO2. To do that, we based our analyses on two drought indicators, the SPI and the SPEI, computed at a 12-month scale. Regarding the drought events, we defined four quantities (frequency, duration, severity, and intensity), and we compared the recent past (1981-2010) vs. the near (2041-2070) and the far future (2071-2100). The spatial drought patterns have been analyzed both at 0.25° × 0.25° and at the country scale. We looked for the answers to a few questions: are the drought events likely to become more frequent in the future? Will they be longer? Will they be more severe and intense? Southern Europe, that already experienced a drying trend in the second part of the 20th century (see, e.g. IPCC, 2014), is projected to be affected by more frequent, severe, intense, and longer drought events in the near future and even more in the far future. The drying trend is driven by the combination of PET increase and precipitation decrease. Oppositely, northern Europe, the area that experienced a trend toward wetness from the 1970s onwards (IPCC, 2014), is projected to be involved by fewer and less intense droughts, mainly due to the projected precipitation increase. The results of this study should be considered as a preliminary step towards more detailed analyses regarding the projections of European drought events. Many different aspects could be introduced to refine the methodologies and the outputs. Among them we plan to study seasonal droughts, adding new indicators, using other models belonging to the A1B (see Meehl et al., 2005, for a summary) and different scenario families, performing tests to compute the statistical error intervals of the climate projections, and coupling the drought information with other climate extremes.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13763436,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,droughts,europe,featured-publication,scenario-analysis,spatial-pattern}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@book{feyenClimateChangeImpacts2020,
  title = {Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in {{Europe}}},
  shorttitle = {Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in {{Europe}}},
  author = {Feyen, Luc and Ciscar, Juan Carlos and Gosling, Simon and Ibarreta, Dolores and Soria, Antonio and Dosio, Alessandro and Naumann, Gustavo and Russo, Simone and Formetta, Giuseppe and Forzieri, Giovanni and Girardello, Marco and Spinoni, Jonathan and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Bisselink, Bernard and Bernhard, Jeroen and Gelati, Emiliano and Adamovic, Marko and Guenther, Susann and De Roo, Ad and Cammalleri, Carmelo and Dottori, Francesco and Bianchi, Alessandra and Alfieri, Lorenzo and Vousdoukas, Michail and Mongelli, Ignazio and Hinkel, Jochen and Ward, P. and Costa, Hugo and de Rigo, Daneile and Libertà, Giorgio and Houston Durrant, Tracy and San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jesús and Barredo Cano, Jose I. and Mauri, Achille and Caudullo, Giovanni and Ceccherini, Guido and Beck, Pieter S. A. and Cescatti, Alessandro and Hristov, Jordan and Toreti, Andrea and Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio and Dentener, Frank and Fellmann, Thomas and Elleby, Christian and Ceglar, Andrej and Fumagalli, Davide and Niemeyer, Stefan and Cerrani, Iacopo and Panarello, Lorenzo and Bratu, Marian and Després, Jacques and Szewczyk, Wojciech and Matei, N.-Anca and Mulholland, Eamonn and Olariaga, Miguel},
  date = {2020-05-15},
  publisher = {{Publications Office of the European Union}},
  location = {{Luxembourg}},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2760/171121},
  urldate = {2020-06-12},
  abstract = {The JRC PESETA IV study shows that ecosystems, people and economies in the EU will face major impacts from climate change if we do not urgently mitigate greenhouse gas emissions or adapt to climate change. The burden of climate change shows a clear north-south divide, with southern regions in Europe much more impacted, through the effects of extreme heat, water scarcity, drought, forest fires and agriculture losses. Limiting global warming to well below 2°C would considerably reduce climate change impacts in Europe. Adaptation to climate change would further minimize unavoidable impacts in a cost-effective manner, with considerable co-benefits from nature-based solutions.},
  isbn = {978-92-76-18123-1},
  keywords = {~INRMM-MiD:z-IFW6DZYI,agricultural-resources,climate-change,disturbances,droughts,ecosystem-change,europe,forest-resources,integrated-modelling,peseta-series,rcp45,rcp85,water-resources,wildfires},
  langid = {english},
  options = {useprefix=true}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{lukesRelationshipForestDensity2013,
  title = {Relationship between Forest Density and Albedo in the Boreal Zone},
  author = {Lukeš, Petr and Stenberg, Pauline and Rautiainen, Miina},
  date = {2013-07},
  journaltitle = {Ecological Modelling},
  volume = {261-262},
  pages = {74--79},
  issn = {0304-3800},
  doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.009},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.009},
  abstract = {[Highlights]

[::] We simulated albedo of boreal zone forests using a radiative transfer model. [::] Species composition had a strong impact on forest albedo. [::] Diurnal courses of albedo were related to forest density. [::] The albedos decreased with increasing stand biomass, LAI, and canopy cover.

[Abstract]

The relationship between albedo and forest areas is complex. Little is known about the driving factors of albedo in the boreal zone. Using a radiative transfer model and an extensive forest inventory database, we simulated albedo of forest stands composed of the most abundant tree species of Fennoscandia - Scots pine, Norway spruce and Silver birch. The physically-based radiative transfer model allowed us to uncouple the driving factors of the forest albedo. We analyzed separately how biomass, canopy cover, and species composition influence the shortwave albedo of a boreal forest. The albedos differed significantly between species and increased with solar zenith angle. The lowest values were observed for spruce stands, followed by pine stands and the highest values were observed for birch stands. Diurnal courses of albedo were tightly related to forest density as quantified by biomass or canopy cover. The albedos generally decreased with increasing stand biomass and canopy cover whereas the sensitivity to solar angle increased as the stands became denser. The sharpest decrease in albedo was observed at low biomass values, after which the albedo remained relative stable. The strength of the relationships was weaker for larger solar zenith angles.

[Excerpt: Conclusions]

Forest management practices, such as logging patterns or growing monospecific or mixed forests may have a significant influence on the albedo of the boreal biome. However, the influence of the resulting forest structure and species composition on the albedo of these forests has not been studied before using an extensive forest inventory database. In this study, we identified factors driving boreal forest albedo using a theoretical model. We show that species-specific stand albedos and their diurnal courses are tightly linked to forest density. The albedos differed significantly between species with the lowest values being observed for spruce and the highest for birch. From the forest management perspective, our results suggest that an increase in albedo can be achieved by (1) increasing the proportion of birch in conifer-dominated forests and (2) managing forests to have a low stand density throughout the rotation period.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13928187,~to-add-doi-URL,albedo,anthropic-feedback,boreal-forests,climate,climate-change,forest-resources,species-association,taxon-specific-parameters}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{nethererPotentialEffectsClimate2010,
  title = {Potential Effects of Climate Change on Insect Herbivores in {{European}} Forests - {{General}} Aspects and the Pine Processionary Moth as Specific Example},
  author = {Netherer, Sigrid and Schopf, Axel},
  date = {2010-02},
  journaltitle = {Forest Ecology and Management},
  volume = {259},
  pages = {831--838},
  issn = {0378-1127},
  doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2009.07.034},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2009.07.034},
  abstract = {The nature of ” climate change” will differ with geographical regions and its final impact on ecosystems vary with the extent of temperature increase, changes in irradiance and levels of UVB, amount and patterns of precipitation and humidity, and alterations in the incidence and nature of abiotic disturbances. Despite many uncertainties, there is consensus in the fact that global warming already has and will have impact on the temporal and spatial dynamics of insect herbivores. Ectothermic organisms are affected by the changes in environmental conditions directly in dispersal, reproduction, development and mortality, and indirectly through altered plant nutritional quality, resistance and via community interactions. Ambiguous consequences are to be expected depending on the individual host plant and herbivore species, probably involving altered incidence and intensity of pest outbreaks and changes in distributional ranges. Regions that represent northern or upper limits of occurrence, such as the Alps or the boreal zone, are likely to be affected most by an increase in stability and population density of certain pest species, such as defoliating insects or bark beetles. At the same time, temperature increase and drought will render areas of distribution in southern and continental parts of Europe less suitable for heat susceptible species, which will probably not only result in northwards shifts, but range contractions. The review is based on chapters of the ” Study on impacts of climate change on European forests and options for adaptation” led by the European Forest Institute (Efi) and on results of the EU project ” PROMOTH - Global change and pine processionary moth: a new challenge for integrated pest management”. Thaumetopoea pityocampa serves as illustrative example for insect herbivores whose latitudinal and altitudinal distribution is mainly controlled by temperature and already modified by global warming.},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-5402173,agrilus-spp,betula-spp,carpinus-betulus,climate-change,elatobium-abietinum,europe,forest-pests,forest-resources,ips-typographus,lymantria-dispar,lymantria-monacha,neodiprion-sertifer,picea-abies,pinus-nigra,pinus-sylvestris,pityogenes-chalcographus,populus-tremula,salix-spp,sorbus-aucuparia,thaumetopoea-pityocampa,tortrix-viridana},
  number = {4}
}