Keyword: climate
2021 (2)
Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa: 15,000 Years of Crises, Setbacks, and Adaptation. Thompson, W. R. & Zakhirova, L. Routledge, 2021. Google-Books-ID: TxMtEAAAQBAJ
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
Environmental factors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have played a crucial role in the historical and social development of the region. The book delves into a broad set of historical literature from the past 15,000 years that neglected to consider environmental factors to their full effect. Beyond the broad historic analysis, the chapters derive conclusions for today’s debate on whether climate change leads to more social conflict and violence. Introducing a theoretical framework focused on adaptive cycling, this book probes and refines the role of climate in ancient and modern political-economic systems in the MENA region. It also underscores just how bad the 21st-century environment may become thanks to global warming. While the MENA region may not survive the latest onslaught of deteriorating climate, there is also some interest in how a region that once led the world in introducing all sorts of innovations thousands of years ago has evolved into a contemporary setting characterized by traditional conservatism, poverty, and incessant strife. Emphasizing regional dynamics, the book's central question deals with the role of climate change in the rise and decline of the MENA region. The book will be a key resource to students and readers interested in global warming, including academics and policymakers.
@book{thompson_climate_2021,
title = {Climate {Change} in the {Middle} {East} and {North} {Africa}: 15,000 {Years} of {Crises}, {Setbacks}, and {Adaptation}},
isbn = {978-1-00-040300-8},
shorttitle = {Climate {Change} in the {Middle} {East} and {North} {Africa}},
abstract = {Environmental factors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have played a crucial role in the historical and social development of the region. The book delves into a broad set of historical literature from the past 15,000 years that neglected to consider environmental factors to their full effect. Beyond the broad historic analysis, the chapters derive conclusions for today’s debate on whether climate change leads to more social conflict and violence. Introducing a theoretical framework focused on adaptive cycling, this book probes and refines the role of climate in ancient and modern political-economic systems in the MENA region. It also underscores just how bad the 21st-century environment may become thanks to global warming. While the MENA region may not survive the latest onslaught of deteriorating climate, there is also some interest in how a region that once led the world in introducing all sorts of innovations thousands of years ago has evolved into a contemporary setting characterized by traditional conservatism, poverty, and incessant strife. Emphasizing regional dynamics, the book's central question deals with the role of climate change in the rise and decline of the MENA region. The book will be a key resource to students and readers interested in global warming, including academics and policymakers.},
language = {en},
publisher = {Routledge},
author = {Thompson, William R. and Zakhirova, Leila},
year = {2021},
note = {Google-Books-ID: TxMtEAAAQBAJ},
keywords = {Middle East, adaptation, climate, impacts},
}Compound Extremes Drive the Western Oregon Wildfires of September 2020. Abatzoglou, J. T., Rupp, D. E., O'Neill, L. W., & Sadegh, M. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(8):e2021GL092520, 2021.
![Compound Extremes Drive the Western Oregon Wildfires of September 2020 [link]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/link.svg "link")
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Abstract Several very large high-impact fires burned nearly 4,000 km2 of mesic forests in western Oregon during September 7–9, 2020. While infrequent, very large high-severity fires have occurred historically in western Oregon, the extreme nature of this event warrants analyses of climate and meteorological drivers. A strong blocking pattern led to an intrusion of dry air and strong downslope east winds in the Oregon Cascades following a warm-dry 60-day period that promoted widespread fuel flammability. Viewed independently, both the downslope east winds and fuel dryness were extreme, but not unprecedented. However, the concurrence of these drivers resulted in compound extremes and impacts unmatched in the observational record. We additionally find that most large wildfires in western Oregon since 1900 have similarly coincided with warm-dry summers during at least moderate east wind events. These results reinforce the importance of incorporating a multivariate lens for compound extremes in assessing wildfire hazard risk.
@article{abatzoglou_compound_2021,
title = {Compound {Extremes} {Drive} the {Western} {Oregon} {Wildfires} of {September} 2020},
volume = {48},
issn = {0094-8276},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021GL092520},
doi = {10.1029/2021GL092520},
abstract = {Abstract Several very large high-impact fires burned nearly 4,000 km2 of mesic forests in western Oregon during September 7–9, 2020. While infrequent, very large high-severity fires have occurred historically in western Oregon, the extreme nature of this event warrants analyses of climate and meteorological drivers. A strong blocking pattern led to an intrusion of dry air and strong downslope east winds in the Oregon Cascades following a warm-dry 60-day period that promoted widespread fuel flammability. Viewed independently, both the downslope east winds and fuel dryness were extreme, but not unprecedented. However, the concurrence of these drivers resulted in compound extremes and impacts unmatched in the observational record. We additionally find that most large wildfires in western Oregon since 1900 have similarly coincided with warm-dry summers during at least moderate east wind events. These results reinforce the importance of incorporating a multivariate lens for compound extremes in assessing wildfire hazard risk.},
number = {8},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
author = {Abatzoglou, John T. and Rupp, David E. and O'Neill, Larry W. and Sadegh, Mojtaba},
year = {2021},
keywords = {climate, compound extremes, meteorology, wildfire},
pages = {e2021GL092520},
}2018 (3)
The (Missing) Politics in Environmental and Sustainability Education. Orr, D. W. NAMTA Journal, 43(3):23–31, 2018.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex David Orr suggests that environmentalist and peace educators must teach civics, law, government, and political history to deeply cultivate an understanding of the influences and policies that create and perpetuate environmental destruction and humanitarian crises. Citizens, especially students, must comprehend the political forces and the public interests that have created the current destabilization of our environment and human community and must become civically and politically engaged to affect actual policy change.
@article{orr_missing_2018,
title = {The ({Missing}) {Politics} in {Environmental} and {Sustainability} {Education}},
volume = {43},
issn = {1522-9734},
url = {https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1244256},
abstract = {David Orr suggests that environmentalist and peace educators must teach civics, law, government, and political history to deeply cultivate an understanding of the influences and policies that create and perpetuate environmental destruction and humanitarian crises. Citizens, especially students, must comprehend the political forces and the public interests that have created the current destabilization of our environment and human community and must become civically and politically engaged to affect actual policy change.},
language = {eng},
number = {3},
journal = {NAMTA Journal},
author = {Orr, David W.},
year = {2018},
keywords = {Teaching Methods, Environmental Education, Peace, Conservation (Environment), Citizen Participation, Citizenship Education, Sustainability, Social Change, Civil Rights, Climate, Public Policy, Civics, Political Attitudes, Political Influences, Public Opinion},
pages = {23--31}
}Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of North America. Biederman, J. A., Scott, R. L., Arnone III, J. A., Jasoni, R. L., Litvak, M. E., Moreo, M. T., Papuga, S. A., Ponce-Campos, G. E., Schreiner-McGraw, A. P., & Vivoni, E. R. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 249:407–419, February, 2018.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23% of GEP) than in summer (77%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these warm desert shrublands.
@article{biederman_shrubland_2018,
title = {Shrubland carbon sink depends upon winter water availability in the warm deserts of {North} {America}},
volume = {249},
issn = {0168-1923},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192317303787},
doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.11.005},
abstract = {Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such model-based analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in open shrublands, which is the most common global land cover type, covering ∼14\% of Earth’s surface. Here we evaluate how the amount and seasonal timing of water availability regulate CO2 exchange between shrublands and the atmosphere. We use eddy covariance data from six US sites across the three warm deserts of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of ∼100–400mm, annual temperatures of 13–18°C, and records of 2–8 years (33 site-years in total). The Chihuahuan, Sonoran and Mojave Deserts present gradients in both mean annual precipitation and its seasonal distribution between the wet-winter Mojave Desert and the wet-summer Chihuahuan Desert. We found that due to hydrologic losses during the wettest summers in the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts, evapotranspiration (ET) was a better metric than precipitation of water available to drive dryland CO2 exchange. In contrast with recent synthesis studies across diverse dryland biomes, we found that NEP could not be directly predicted from ET due to wintertime decoupling of the relationship between ecosystem respiration (Reco) and gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). Ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE=GEP/ET) did not differ between winter and summer. Carbon use efficiency (CUE=NEP/GEP), however, was greater in winter because Reco returned a smaller fraction of carbon to the atmosphere (23\% of GEP) than in summer (77\%). Combining the water-carbon relations found here with historical precipitation since 1980, we estimate that lower average winter precipitation during the 21st century reduced the net carbon sink of the three deserts by an average of 6.8TgC yr1. Our results highlight that winter precipitation is critical to the annual carbon balance of these warm desert shrublands.},
urldate = {2019-03-11},
journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology},
author = {Biederman, Joel A. and Scott, Russell L. and Arnone III, John A. and Jasoni, Richard L. and Litvak, Marcy E. and Moreo, Michael T. and Papuga, Shirley A. and Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E. and Schreiner-McGraw, Adam P. and Vivoni, Enrique R.},
month = feb,
year = {2018},
keywords = {Climate, Drought, LTER-JRN, Net ecosystem exchange, Photosynthesis, Respiration, Semiarid},
pages = {407--419}
}Extreme heat waves under 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. Dosio, A., Mentaschi, L., Fischer, E. M, & Wyser, K. Environmental Research Letters, March, 2018.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated to increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5°C warming, a significant increase in heat waves magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and South-East Asia. Compared to a 1.5°C world, under 2°C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5°C world, 13.8% of world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9%) under 2°C warming, i.e., a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will also result in around 420 million less people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and \textasciitilde65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5°C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2%) in a 2°C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2°C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5°C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.
@article{dosio_extreme_2018,
title = {Extreme heat waves under 1.5°{C} and 2°{C} global warming},
issn = {1748-9326},
url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aab827},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab827},
abstract = {Severe, extreme, and exceptional heat waves, such as those occurred over the Balkans (2007), France (2003), or Russia (2010), are associated to increased mortality, human discomfort and reduced labour productivity. Based on the results of a very high-resolution global model, we show that, even at 1.5°C warming, a significant increase in heat waves magnitude is expected over Africa, South America, and South-East Asia. Compared to a 1.5°C world, under 2°C warming the frequency of extreme heat waves would double over most of the globe. In a 1.5°C world, 13.8\% of world population will be exposed to severe heat waves at least once every 5 years. This fraction becomes nearly three times larger (36.9\%) under 2°C warming, i.e., a difference of around 1.7 billion people. Limiting global warming to 1.5°C will also result in around 420 million less people being frequently exposed to extreme heat waves, and {\textasciitilde}65 million to exceptional heat waves. Nearly 700 million people (9.0\% of world population) will be exposed to extreme heat waves at least once every 20 years in a 1.5°C world, but more than 2 billion people (28.2\%) in a 2°C world. With current emission trends threatening even the 2°C target, our study is helpful to identify regions where limiting the warming to 1.5°C would have the strongest benefits in reducing population exposure to extreme heat.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2018-04-05},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
author = {Dosio, Alessandro and Mentaschi, Lorenzo and Fischer, Erich M and Wyser, Klaus},
month = mar,
year = {2018},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
file = {Dosio et al. - 2018 - Extreme heat waves under 1.5°C and 2°C global warm.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\JCIEDN4S\\Dosio et al. - 2018 - Extreme heat waves under 1.5°C and 2°C global warm.pdf:application/pdf}
}2017 (9)
Attribution of Recent Temperature Behaviour Reassessed by a Neural-Network Method. Pasini, A., Racca, P., Amendola, S., Cartocci, G., & Cassardo, C. Scientific Reports, December, 2017.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Attribution studies on recent global warming by Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles converge in showing the fundamental role of anthropogenic forcings as primary drivers of temperature in the last half century. However, despite their differences, all these models pertain to the same dynamical approach and come from a common ancestor, so that their very similar results in attribution studies are not surprising and cannot be considered as a clear proof of robustness of the results themselves. Thus, here we adopt a completely different, non-dynamical, data-driven and fully nonlinear approach to the attribution problem. By means of neural network (NN) modelling, and analysing the last 160 years, we perform attribution experiments and find that the strong increase in global temperature of the last half century may be attributed basically to anthropogenic forcings (with details on their specific contributions), while the Sun considerably influences the period 1910-1975. Furthermore, the role of sulphate aerosols and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for better catching interannual to decadal temperature variability is clarified. Sensitivity analyses to forcing changes are also performed. The NN outcomes both corroborate our previous knowledge from GCMs and give new insight into the relative contributions of external forcings and internal variability to climate.
@article{pasiniAttributionRecentTemperature2017,
title = {Attribution of Recent Temperature Behaviour Reassessed by a Neural-Network Method},
author = {Pasini, Antonello and Racca, Paolo and Amendola, Stefano and Cartocci, Giorgio and Cassardo, Claudio},
year = {2017},
month = dec,
volume = {7},
issn = {2045-2322},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-017-18011-8},
abstract = {Attribution studies on recent global warming by Global Climate Model (GCM) ensembles converge in showing the fundamental role of anthropogenic forcings as primary drivers of temperature in the last half century. However, despite their differences, all these models pertain to the same dynamical approach and come from a common ancestor, so that their very similar results in attribution studies are not surprising and cannot be considered as a clear proof of robustness of the results themselves. Thus, here we adopt a completely different, non-dynamical, data-driven and fully nonlinear approach to the attribution problem. By means of neural network (NN) modelling, and analysing the last 160 years, we perform attribution experiments and find that the strong increase in global temperature of the last half century may be attributed basically to anthropogenic forcings (with details on their specific contributions), while the Sun considerably influences the period 1910-1975. Furthermore, the role of sulphate aerosols and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation for better catching interannual to decadal temperature variability is clarified. Sensitivity analyses to forcing changes are also performed. The NN outcomes both corroborate our previous knowledge from GCMs and give new insight into the relative contributions of external forcings and internal variability to climate.},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14551513,anthropogenic-changes,array-of-factors,artificial-neural-networks,atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation,black-carbon,climate,climate-change,climate-projections,ghg,global-scale,global-warming,model-comparison,multiplicity,solar-activity,solar-radiation,sulphates,temperature},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14551513},
number = {1}
}Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015. Cheng, L., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Abraham, J., & Zhu, J. Science Advances, 3(3):e1601545, March, 2017. 00000
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study. A new assessment of how much heat Earth has accumulated since 1960 is made by examining ocean heat content changes. A new assessment of how much heat Earth has accumulated since 1960 is made by examining ocean heat content changes.
@article{cheng_improved_2017,
title = {Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015},
volume = {3},
copyright = {Copyright © 2017, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.},
issn = {2375-2548},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/3/e1601545},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1601545},
abstract = {Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.
A new assessment of how much heat Earth has accumulated since 1960 is made by examining ocean heat content changes.
A new assessment of how much heat Earth has accumulated since 1960 is made by examining ocean heat content changes.},
language = {en},
number = {3},
urldate = {2017-03-12},
journal = {Science Advances},
author = {Cheng, Lijing and Trenberth, Kevin E. and Fasullo, John and Boyer, Tim and Abraham, John and Zhu, Jiang},
month = mar,
year = {2017},
note = {00000},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, oceans},
pages = {e1601545},
file = {Cheng et al. - 2017 - Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\QX3CU3TI\\Cheng et al. - 2017 - Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960.pdf:application/pdf}
}Projecting Conflict and Cooperation under Climate Change Scenarios White Paper for Discussion. Gilmore, E., Hegre, H. a., Petrova, K., Moyer, J., & Bowlsby, D. 2017.
bibtex
bibtex
@article{gilmore_projecting_2017,
title = {Projecting {Conflict} and {Cooperation} under {Climate} {Change} {Scenarios} {White} {Paper} for {Discussion}},
author = {Gilmore, Elisabeth and Hegre, H{\textbackslash}a avard and Petrova, Kristina and Moyer, Jonathan and Bowlsby, Drew},
year = {2017},
keywords = {violence-conflicts-wars, collapse, climate},
file = {Gilmore et al. - 2017 - Projecting Conflict and Cooperation under Climate .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\8SMYEUU3\\Gilmore et al. - 2017 - Projecting Conflict and Cooperation under Climate .pdf:application/pdf}
}Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records. Hausfather, Z., Cowtan, K., Clarke, D. C., Jacobs, P., Richardson, M., & Rohde, R. Science Advances, 3(1):e1601207, January, 2017. 00000
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.
@article{hausfather_assessing_2017,
title = {Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records},
volume = {3},
copyright = {Copyright © 2017, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.},
issn = {2375-2548},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/e1601207},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1601207},
abstract = {Sea surface temperature (SST) records are subject to potential biases due to changing instrumentation and measurement practices. Significant differences exist between commonly used composite SST reconstructions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Extended Reconstruction Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST), the Hadley Centre SST data set (HadSST3), and the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SSTs (COBE-SST) from 2003 to the present. The update from ERSST version 3b to version 4 resulted in an increase in the operational SST trend estimate during the last 19 years from 0.07° to 0.12°C per decade, indicating a higher rate of warming in recent years. We show that ERSST version 4 trends generally agree with largely independent, near-global, and instrumentally homogeneous SST measurements from floating buoys, Argo floats, and radiometer-based satellite measurements that have been developed and deployed during the past two decades. We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2017-01-08},
journal = {Science Advances},
author = {Hausfather, Zeke and Cowtan, Kevin and Clarke, David C. and Jacobs, Peter and Richardson, Mark and Rohde, Robert},
month = jan,
year = {2017},
note = {00000},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, accuracy-check},
pages = {e1601207},
file = {Hausfather et al. - 2017 - Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homo.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\UTJ3KW74\\Hausfather et al. - 2017 - Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homo.pdf:application/pdf}
}Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events. Mann, M. E., Rahmstorf, S., Kornhuber, K., Steinman, B. A., Miller, S. K., & Coumou, D. Scientific Reports, 7:45242, March, 2017. 00000
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8).
@article{mann_influence_2017,
title = {Influence of {Anthropogenic} {Climate} {Change} on {Planetary} {Wave} {Resonance} and {Extreme} {Weather} {Events}},
volume = {7},
copyright = {© 2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved.},
issn = {2045-2322},
url = {http://www.nature.com/srep/2017/170327/srep45242/full/srep45242.html},
doi = {10.1038/srep45242},
abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8).},
language = {en},
urldate = {2017-03-29},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Coumou, Dim},
month = mar,
year = {2017},
note = {00000},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
pages = {45242},
file = {Mann et al. - 2017 - Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Plane.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\MVM6VKA7\\Mann et al. - 2017 - Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Plane.pdf:application/pdf}
}Continued Reforestation and Urban Expansion in the New Century of a Tropical Island in the Caribbean. Wang, C., Yu, M., & Gao, Q. Remote Sensing, 9(7):20, July, 2017.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Accurate and timely monitoring of tropical land cover/use (LCLU) changes is urgent due to the rapid deforestation/reforestation and its impact on global land-atmosphere interaction. However, persistent cloud cover in the tropics imposes the greatest challenge and retards LCLU mapping in mountainous areas such as the tropic island of Puerto Rico, where forest transition changed from deforestation to reforestation due to the economy shift from agriculture to industry and service after the 1940s. To improve the LCLU mapping in the tropics and to evaluate the trend of forest transition of Puerto Rico in the new century, we integrated the optical Landsat images with the L-band SAR to map LC in 2010 by taking advantage of the cloud-penetrating ability of the SAR signals. The results showed that the incorporation of SAR data with the Landsat data significantly, although not substantially, enhanced the accuracy of LCLU mapping of Puerto Rico, and the Kappa statistic reached 90.5% from 88.4% without SAR data. The enhancement of mapping by SAR is important for urban and forest, as well as locations with limited optical data caused by cloud cover. We found both forests and urban lands continued expanding in the new century despite the declining population. However, the forest cover change slowed down in 2000-2010 compared to that in 1991-2000. The deforestation rate reduced by 42.1% in 2000-2010, and the reforestation was mostly located in the east and southeast of the island where Hurricane Georges landed and caused severe vegetation damage in 1998. We also found that reforestation increased, but deforestation decreased along the topography slope. Reforestation was much higher within the protected area compared to that in the surroundings in the wet and moist forest zones.
@article{wang_continued_2017,
title = {Continued {Reforestation} and {Urban} {Expansion} in the {New} {Century} of a {Tropical} {Island} in the {Caribbean}},
volume = {9},
issn = {2072-4292},
shorttitle = {Continued {Reforestation} and {Urban} {Expansion} in the {New} {Century} of a {Tropical} {Island} in the {Caribbean}},
url = {://WOS:000406676800094},
doi = {10.3390/rs9070731},
abstract = {Accurate and timely monitoring of tropical land cover/use (LCLU) changes is urgent due to the rapid deforestation/reforestation and its impact on global land-atmosphere interaction. However, persistent cloud cover in the tropics imposes the greatest challenge and retards LCLU mapping in mountainous areas such as the tropic island of Puerto Rico, where forest transition changed from deforestation to reforestation due to the economy shift from agriculture to industry and service after the 1940s. To improve the LCLU mapping in the tropics and to evaluate the trend of forest transition of Puerto Rico in the new century, we integrated the optical Landsat images with the L-band SAR to map LC in 2010 by taking advantage of the cloud-penetrating ability of the SAR signals. The results showed that the incorporation of SAR data with the Landsat data significantly, although not substantially, enhanced the accuracy of LCLU mapping of Puerto Rico, and the Kappa statistic reached 90.5\% from 88.4\% without SAR data. The enhancement of mapping by SAR is important for urban and forest, as well as locations with limited optical data caused by cloud cover. We found both forests and urban lands continued expanding in the new century despite the declining population. However, the forest cover change slowed down in 2000-2010 compared to that in 1991-2000. The deforestation rate reduced by 42.1\% in 2000-2010, and the reforestation was mostly located in the east and southeast of the island where Hurricane Georges landed and caused severe vegetation damage in 1998. We also found that reforestation increased, but deforestation decreased along the topography slope. Reforestation was much higher within the protected area compared to that in the surroundings in the wet and moist forest zones.},
language = {English},
number = {7},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
author = {Wang, C. and Yu, M. and Gao, Q.},
month = jul,
year = {2017},
keywords = {Landsat, Remote Sensing, Synthetic Aperture Radar, TM/ETM, classification, climate, consequences, deforestation, forest, forest transition, imagery, integration, land cover land use change, land-cover, palsar, puerto-rico, tropical forests},
pages = {20}
}Observational Evidence for Cloud Cover Enhancement over Western European Forests. Teuling, A. J., Taylor, C. M., Meirink, J. F., Melsen, L. A., Miralles, D. G., van Heerwaarden , C. C., Vautard, R., Stegehuis, A. I., Nabuurs, G., & de Arellano , J. V. Nature Communications, 8:14065+, January, 2017.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15\,min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, we show that widespread windthrow by cyclone Klaus in the Landes forest led to a significant decrease in local cloud cover in subsequent years. Strong cloud development along the downwind edges of larger forest areas are consistent with a forest-breeze mesoscale circulation. Our results highlight the need to include impacts on cloud formation when evaluating the water and climate services of temperate forests, in particular around densely populated areas.
@article{teulingObservationalEvidenceCloud2017,
title = {Observational Evidence for Cloud Cover Enhancement over Western {{European}} Forests},
author = {Teuling, Adriaan J. and Taylor, Christopher M. and Meirink, Jan F. and Melsen, Lieke A. and Miralles, Diego G. and {van Heerwaarden}, Chiel C. and Vautard, Robert and Stegehuis, Annemiek I. and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and {de Arellano}, Jordi V.},
year = {2017},
month = jan,
volume = {8},
pages = {14065+},
issn = {2041-1723},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14065},
abstract = {Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15\,min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, we show that widespread windthrow by cyclone Klaus in the Landes forest led to a significant decrease in local cloud cover in subsequent years. Strong cloud development along the downwind edges of larger forest areas are consistent with a forest-breeze mesoscale circulation. Our results highlight the need to include impacts on cloud formation when evaluating the water and climate services of temperate forests, in particular around densely populated areas.},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257971,~to-add-doi-URL,climate,climate-projections,cloud-formation,cloudiness,cross-disciplinary-perspective,ecosystem-services,europe,featured-publication,feedback,forest-breeze,forest-resources,modelling-uncertainty,temperate-forests},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14257971}
}Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for the first time. Nature, December, 2017.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Scientists take the bold step of saying phenomena wouldn’t have happened without global warming.
@article{noauthor_extreme_2017,
title = {Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for the first time},
volume = {552},
copyright = {©2017 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
url = {http://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-08808-y},
abstract = {Scientists take the bold step of saying phenomena wouldn’t have happened without global warming.},
number = {291},
urldate = {2017-12-26},
journal = {Nature},
month = dec,
year = {2017},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
file = {2017 - Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for th.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\NNJS6GSM\\2017 - Extreme weather explicitly blamed on humans for th.pdf:application/pdf}
}Three Years to Safeguard Our Climate. Figueres, C., Schellnhuber, H. J., Whiteman, G., Rockstr?m, J., Hobley, A., & Rahmstorf, S. Nature, 546(7660):593–595, June, 2017.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world's carbon dioxide by 2020. [Excerpt] [...] According to an April report1 (prepared by Carbon Tracker in London, the Climate Action Tracker consortium, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut), should emissions continue to rise beyond 2020, or even remain level, the temperature goals set in Paris become almost unattainable. The UN Sustainable Development Goals that were agreed in 2015 would also be at grave risk. [...] [] The magnitude of the challenge can be grasped by computing a budget for CO2 emissions – the maximum amount of the gas that can be released before the temperature limit is breached. After subtracting past emissions, humanity is left with a 'carbon credit' of between 150 and 1,050 gigatonnes (Gt; one Gt is 1 \texttimes 109 tonnes) of CO2 to meet the Paris target of 1.5 °C or well below 2 °C (see go.nature.com/2rytztf). The wide range reflects different ways of calculating the budgets using the most recent figures. [] At the current emission rate of 41 Gt of CO2 per year, the lower limit of this range would be crossed in 4 years, and the midpoint of 600 Gt of CO2 would be passed in 15 years. If the current rate of annual emissions stays at this level, we would have to drop them almost immediately to zero once we exhaust the budget. Such a 'jump to distress' is in no one's interest. A more gradual descent would allow the global economy time to adapt smoothly. [...] [Six milestones] To prioritize actions, we've identified milestones in six sectors. [...] These goals may be idealistic at best, unrealistic at worst. However, we are in the age of exponential transformation and think that such a focus will unleash ingenuity. [...]
@article{figueresThreeYearsSafeguard2017,
title = {Three Years to Safeguard Our Climate},
author = {Figueres, Christiana and Schellnhuber, Hans J. and Whiteman, Gail and Rockstr?m, Johan and Hobley, Anthony and Rahmstorf, Stefan},
year = {2017},
month = jun,
volume = {546},
pages = {593--595},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/546593a},
abstract = {Christiana Figueres and colleagues set out a six-point plan for turning the tide of the world's carbon dioxide by 2020.
[Excerpt] [...] According to an April report1 (prepared by Carbon Tracker in London, the Climate Action Tracker consortium, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut), should emissions continue to rise beyond 2020, or even remain level, the temperature goals set in Paris become almost unattainable. The UN Sustainable Development Goals that were agreed in 2015 would also be at grave risk. [...]
[] The magnitude of the challenge can be grasped by computing a budget for CO2 emissions -- the maximum amount of the gas that can be released before the temperature limit is breached. After subtracting past emissions, humanity is left with a 'carbon credit' of between 150 and 1,050 gigatonnes (Gt; one Gt is 1 \texttimes{} 109 tonnes) of CO2 to meet the Paris target of 1.5 \textdegree C or well below 2 \textdegree C (see go.nature.com/2rytztf). The wide range reflects different ways of calculating the budgets using the most recent figures.
[] At the current emission rate of 41 Gt of CO2 per year, the lower limit of this range would be crossed in 4 years, and the midpoint of 600 Gt of CO2 would be passed in 15 years. If the current rate of annual emissions stays at this level, we would have to drop them almost immediately to zero once we exhaust the budget. Such a 'jump to distress' is in no one's interest. A more gradual descent would allow the global economy time to adapt smoothly. [...]
[Six milestones]
To prioritize actions, we've identified milestones in six sectors. [...] These goals may be idealistic at best, unrealistic at worst. However, we are in the age of exponential transformation and think that such a focus will unleash ingenuity. [...]},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14384358,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-mitigation,check-list,climate-change,economics,environment-society-economy,global-warming,smooth-transition,sudden-transition},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14384358},
number = {7660}
}2016 (7)
Human migration: Climate and the peopling of the world. deMenocal , P. B. & Stringer, C. Nature, September, 2016.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The human dispersal out of Africa that populated the world was probably paced by climate changes. This is the inference drawn from computer modelling of climate variability during the time of early human migration.
@article{demenocal_human_2016,
title = {Human migration: {Climate} and the peopling of the world},
issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
shorttitle = {Human migration},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature19471},
doi = {10.1038/nature19471},
abstract = {The human dispersal out of Africa that populated the world was probably paced by climate changes. This is the inference drawn from computer modelling of climate variability during the time of early human migration.},
urldate = {2016-12-26},
journal = {Nature},
author = {deMenocal, Peter B. and Stringer, Chris},
month = sep,
year = {2016},
keywords = {collapse, climate, demographics, migrations},
file = {deMenocal and Stringer - 2016 - Human migration Climate and the peopling of the w.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\E6W8GP5P\\deMenocal and Stringer - 2016 - Human migration Climate and the peopling of the w.pdf:application/pdf}
}Wave Climate in the Arctic 1992-2014: Seasonality and Trends. Stopa, J. E., Ardhuin, F., & Girard-Ardhuin, F. The Cryosphere, 10(4):1605–1629, July, 2016.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Over the past decade, the diminishing Arctic sea ice has impacted the wave field, which depends on the ice-free ocean and wind. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic spanning 1992-2014 from a merged altimeter data set and a wave hindcast that uses CFSR winds and ice concentrations from satellites as input. The model performs well, verified by the altimeters, and is relatively consistent for climate studies. The wave seasonality and extremes are linked to the ice coverage, wind strength, and wind direction, creating distinct features in the wind seas and swells. The altimeters and model show that the reduction of sea ice coverage causes increasing wave heights instead of the wind. However, trends are convoluted by interannual climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In the Nordic Greenland Sea the NAO influences the decreasing wind speeds and wave heights. Swells are becoming more prevalent and wind-sea steepness is declining. The satellite data show the sea ice minimum occurs later in fall when the wind speeds increase. This creates more favorable conditions for wave development. Therefore we expect the ice freeze-up in fall to be the most critical season in the Arctic and small changes in ice cover, wind speeds, and wave heights can have large impacts to the evolution of the sea ice throughout the year. It is inconclusive how important wave-ice processes are within the climate system, but selected events suggest the importance of waves within the marginal ice zone.
@article{stopaWaveClimateArctic2016,
title = {Wave Climate in the {{Arctic}} 1992-2014: Seasonality and Trends},
author = {Stopa, Justin E. and Ardhuin, Fabrice and {Girard-Ardhuin}, Fanny},
year = {2016},
month = jul,
volume = {10},
pages = {1605--1629},
issn = {1994-0424},
doi = {10.5194/tc-10-1605-2016},
abstract = {Over the past decade, the diminishing Arctic sea ice has impacted the wave field, which depends on the ice-free ocean and wind. This study characterizes the wave climate in the Arctic spanning 1992-2014 from a merged altimeter data set and a wave hindcast that uses CFSR winds and ice concentrations from satellites as input. The model performs well, verified by the altimeters, and is relatively consistent for climate studies. The wave seasonality and extremes are linked to the ice coverage, wind strength, and wind direction, creating distinct features in the wind seas and swells. The altimeters and model show that the reduction of sea ice coverage causes increasing wave heights instead of the wind. However, trends are convoluted by interannual climate oscillations like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In the Nordic Greenland Sea the NAO influences the decreasing wind speeds and wave heights. Swells are becoming more prevalent and wind-sea steepness is declining. The satellite data show the sea ice minimum occurs later in fall when the wind speeds increase. This creates more favorable conditions for wave development. Therefore we expect the ice freeze-up in fall to be the most critical season in the Arctic and small changes in ice cover, wind speeds, and wave heights can have large impacts to the evolution of the sea ice throughout the year. It is inconclusive how important wave-ice processes are within the climate system, but selected events suggest the importance of waves within the marginal ice zone.},
journal = {The Cryosphere},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14109175,~to-add-doi-URL,arctic-region,artic-sea-ice,climate,remote-sensing,waves-energy,wind},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14109175},
number = {4}
}Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years. Zeebe, R. E., Ridgwell, A., & Zachos, J. C. Nature Geoscience, 9(4):325–329, April, 2016. 00014
![Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years [pdf]](https://bibbase.org/img/filetypes/pdf.svg "pdf")
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of \textasciitilde10 Pg C yr−1 in 2014. Geologic analogues from past transient climate changes could provide invaluable constraints on the response of the climate system to such perturbations, but only if the associated carbon release rates can be reliably reconstructed. The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is known at present to have the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years, but robust estimates of the initial rate and onset duration are hindered by uncertainties in age models. Here we introduce a new method to extract rates of change from a sedimentary record based on the relative timing of climate and carbon cycle changes, without the need for an age model. We apply this method to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from the New Jersey shelf using time-series analysis and carbon cycle–climate modelling. We calculate that the initial carbon release during the onset of the PETM occurred over at least 4,000 years. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than 1.1 Pg C yr−1. We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a ‘no-analogue’ state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.
@article{zeebe_anthropogenic_2016,
title = {Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years},
volume = {9},
copyright = {© 2016 Nature Publishing Group},
issn = {1752-0894},
url = {http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v9/n4/pdf/ngeo2681.pdf},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2681},
abstract = {Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of {\textasciitilde}10 Pg C yr−1 in 2014. Geologic analogues from past transient climate changes could provide invaluable constraints on the response of the climate system to such perturbations, but only if the associated carbon release rates can be reliably reconstructed. The Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is known at present to have the highest carbon release rates of the past 66 million years, but robust estimates of the initial rate and onset duration are hindered by uncertainties in age models. Here we introduce a new method to extract rates of change from a sedimentary record based on the relative timing of climate and carbon cycle changes, without the need for an age model. We apply this method to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records from the New Jersey shelf using time-series analysis and carbon cycle–climate modelling. We calculate that the initial carbon release during the onset of the PETM occurred over at least 4,000 years. This constrains the maximum sustained PETM carbon release rate to less than 1.1 Pg C yr−1. We conclude that, given currently available records, the present anthropogenic carbon release rate is unprecedented during the past 66 million years. We suggest that such a ‘no-analogue’ state represents a fundamental challenge in constraining future climate projections. Also, future ecosystem disruptions are likely to exceed the relatively limited extinctions observed at the PETM.},
language = {en},
number = {4},
urldate = {2016-12-07},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
author = {Zeebe, Richard E. and Ridgwell, Andy and Zachos, James C.},
month = apr,
year = {2016},
note = {00014},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
pages = {325--329},
file = {Zeebe et al. - 2016 - Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented du.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\NJ84UND6\\Zeebe et al. - 2016 - Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented du.pdf:application/pdf}
}Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction. Brand, U., Blamey, N., Garbelli, C., Griesshaber, E., Posenato, R., Angiolini, L., Azmy, K., Farabegoli, E., & Came, R. Palaeoworld, 25(4):496–507, December, 2016. 00002
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The cause for the end Permian mass extinction, the greatest challenge life on Earth faced in its geologic history, is still hotly debated by scientists. The most significant marker of this event is the negative δ13C shift and rebound recorded in marine carbonates with a duration ranging from 2000 to 19 000 years depending on localities and sedimentation rates. Leading causes for the event are Siberian trap volcanism and the emission of greenhouse gases with consequent global warming. Measurements of gases vaulted in calcite of end Permian brachiopods and whole rock document significant differences in normal atmospheric equilibrium concentration in gases between modern and end Permian seawaters. The gas composition of the end Permian brachiopod-inclusions reflects dramatically higher seawater carbon dioxide and methane contents leading up to the biotic event. Initial global warming of 8–11 °C sourced by isotopically light carbon dioxide from volcanic emissions triggered the release of isotopically lighter methane from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrates. Consequently, the huge quantities of methane emitted into the atmosphere and the oceans accelerated global warming and marked the negative δ13C spike observed in marine carbonates, documenting the onset of the mass extinction period. The rapidity of the methane hydrate emission lasting from several years to thousands of years was tempered by the equally rapid oxidation of the atmospheric and oceanic methane that gradually reduced its warming potential but not before global warming had reached levels lethal to most life on land and in the oceans. Based on measurements of gases trapped in biogenic and abiogenic calcite, the release of methane (of ∼3–14% of total C stored) from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrate is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming (GMAT \textgreater 34 °C) and oceanic negative-carbon isotope excursion observed at the end Permian. Global warming triggered by the massive release of carbon dioxide may be catastrophic, but the release of methane from hydrate may be apocalyptic. The end Permian holds an important lesson for humanity regarding the issue it faces today with greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and climate change.
@article{brand_methane_2016,
title = {Methane {Hydrate}: {Killer} cause of {Earth}'s greatest mass extinction},
volume = {25},
issn = {1871174X},
shorttitle = {Methane {Hydrate}},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1871174X16300488},
doi = {10.1016/j.palwor.2016.06.002},
abstract = {The cause for the end Permian mass extinction, the greatest challenge life on Earth faced in its geologic history, is still hotly debated by scientists. The most significant marker of this event is the negative δ13C shift and rebound recorded in marine carbonates with a duration ranging from 2000 to 19 000 years depending on localities and sedimentation rates. Leading causes for the event are Siberian trap volcanism and the emission of greenhouse gases with consequent global warming. Measurements of gases vaulted in calcite of end Permian brachiopods and whole rock document significant differences in normal atmospheric equilibrium concentration in gases between modern and end Permian seawaters. The gas composition of the end Permian brachiopod-inclusions reflects dramatically higher seawater carbon dioxide and methane contents leading up to the biotic event. Initial global warming of 8–11 °C sourced by isotopically light carbon dioxide from volcanic emissions triggered the release of isotopically lighter methane from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrates. Consequently, the huge quantities of methane emitted into the atmosphere and the oceans accelerated global warming and marked the negative δ13C spike observed in marine carbonates, documenting the onset of the mass extinction period. The rapidity of the methane hydrate emission lasting from several years to thousands of years was tempered by the equally rapid oxidation of the atmospheric and oceanic methane that gradually reduced its warming potential but not before global warming had reached levels lethal to most life on land and in the oceans. Based on measurements of gases trapped in biogenic and abiogenic calcite, the release of methane (of ∼3–14\% of total C stored) from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrate is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming (GMAT {\textgreater} 34 °C) and oceanic negative-carbon isotope excursion observed at the end Permian. Global warming triggered by the massive release of carbon dioxide may be catastrophic, but the release of methane from hydrate may be apocalyptic. The end Permian holds an important lesson for humanity regarding the issue it faces today with greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and climate change.},
language = {en},
number = {4},
urldate = {2017-03-24},
journal = {Palaeoworld},
author = {Brand, Uwe and Blamey, Nigel and Garbelli, Claudio and Griesshaber, Erika and Posenato, Renato and Angiolini, Lucia and Azmy, Karem and Farabegoli, Enzo and Came, Rosemarie},
month = dec,
year = {2016},
note = {00002},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
pages = {496--507},
file = {Brand et al. - 2016 - Methane Hydrate Killer cause of Earth's greatest .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\24R2WFRT\\Brand et al. - 2016 - Methane Hydrate Killer cause of Earth's greatest .pdf:application/pdf}
}Weather Effects on Social Movements: Evidence from Washington, D.C., and New York City, 1960–95. Zhang, T. H. Weather, Climate, and Society, 8(3):299–311, July, 2016. 00000
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Scholars have been taking the impact of weather on social movements for granted for some time, despite a lack of supporting empirical evidence. This paper takes the topic more seriously, analyzing more than 7000social movement events and 36 years of weather records in Washington, D.C., and New York City (1960–95).Here, ‘‘good weather’’ is defined as midrange temperature and little to no precipitation. This paper uses negative binomial regression models to predict the number of social movements per day and finds social movements are more likely to happen on good days than bad, with seasonal patterns controlled for. Results from logistic regression models indicate violence occurs more frequently at social movement events when it is warmer. Most interestingly, the effect of weather is more salient when there are more political opportunities and resources available. This paper discusses the implications and suggests future research on weather and social movement studies.
@article{zhang_weather_2016,
title = {Weather {Effects} on {Social} {Movements}: {Evidence} from {Washington}, {D}.{C}., and {New} {York} {City}, 1960–95},
volume = {8},
issn = {1948-8327, 1948-8335},
shorttitle = {Weather {Effects} on {Social} {Movements}},
url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0072.1},
doi = {10.1175/WCAS-D-15-0072.1},
abstract = {Scholars have been taking the impact of weather on social movements for granted for some time, despite a lack of supporting empirical evidence. This paper takes the topic more seriously, analyzing more than 7000social movement events and 36 years of weather records in Washington, D.C., and New York City (1960–95).Here, ‘‘good weather’’ is defined as midrange temperature and little to no precipitation. This paper uses negative binomial regression models to predict the number of social movements per day and finds social movements are more likely to happen on good days than bad, with seasonal patterns controlled for. Results from logistic regression models indicate violence occurs more frequently at social movement events when it is warmer. Most interestingly, the effect of weather is more salient when there are more political opportunities and resources available. This paper discusses the implications and suggests future research on weather and social movement studies.},
language = {en},
number = {3},
urldate = {2017-02-16},
journal = {Weather, Climate, and Society},
author = {Zhang, Tony Huiquan},
month = jul,
year = {2016},
note = {00000},
keywords = {violence-conflicts-wars, collapse, climate},
pages = {299--311},
file = {Zhang - 2016 - Weather Effects on Social Movements Evidence from.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\XU4F9HD6\\Zhang - 2016 - Weather Effects on Social Movements Evidence from.pdf:application/pdf}
}From conflict to resilience? Explaining recent changes in climate security discourse and practice. Boas, I. & Rothe, D. Environmental Politics, 25(4):613–632, July, 2016. 00000
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The recent rise of resilience thinking in climate security discourse and practice is examined and explained. Using the paradigmatic case of the United Kingdom, practitioners’ understandings of resilience are considered to show how these actors use a resilience lens to rearticulate earlier storylines of climate conflict in terms of complexity, decentralisation, and empowerment. Practitioners in the climate security field tend to reinterpret resilience in line with their established routines. As a result, climate resilience storylines and practices turn out to be much more diverse and messy than is suggested in the conceptual literature. Building on these findings, the recent success of resilience thinking in climate security discourse is explained. Climate resilience – not despite but due to its messiness – is able to bring together a wide range of actors, traditionally standing at opposite ends of the climate security debate. Through resilience storylines, climate security discourse becomes something to which a wide range of actors, ranging from security to the development field, can relate.
@article{boas_conflict_2016,
title = {From conflict to resilience? {Explaining} recent changes in climate security discourse and practice},
volume = {25},
issn = {0964-4016},
shorttitle = {From conflict to resilience?},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2016.1160479},
doi = {10.1080/09644016.2016.1160479},
abstract = {The recent rise of resilience thinking in climate security discourse and practice is examined and explained. Using the paradigmatic case of the United Kingdom, practitioners’ understandings of resilience are considered to show how these actors use a resilience lens to rearticulate earlier storylines of climate conflict in terms of complexity, decentralisation, and empowerment. Practitioners in the climate security field tend to reinterpret resilience in line with their established routines. As a result, climate resilience storylines and practices turn out to be much more diverse and messy than is suggested in the conceptual literature. Building on these findings, the recent success of resilience thinking in climate security discourse is explained. Climate resilience – not despite but due to its messiness – is able to bring together a wide range of actors, traditionally standing at opposite ends of the climate security debate. Through resilience storylines, climate security discourse becomes something to which a wide range of actors, ranging from security to the development field, can relate.},
number = {4},
urldate = {2016-12-06},
journal = {Environmental Politics},
author = {Boas, Ingrid and Rothe, Delf},
month = jul,
year = {2016},
note = {00000},
keywords = {violence-conflicts-wars, collapse, climate},
pages = {613--632},
file = {Boas and Rothe - 2016 - From conflict to resilience Explaining recent cha.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\8NBXJUQG\\Boas and Rothe - 2016 - From conflict to resilience Explaining recent cha.pdf:application/pdf}
}The Climate Change Challenge and Barriers to the Exercise of Foresight Intelligence. Ross, L., Arrow, K., Cialdini, R., Diamond-Smith, N., Diamond, J., Dunne, J., Feldman, M., Horn, R., Kennedy, D., Murphy, C., Pirages, D., Smith, K., York, R., & Ehrlich, P. BioScience, 66(5):363–370, May, 2016.
Paper doi bibtex
Paper doi bibtex @article{ross_climate_2016,
title = {The {Climate} {Change} {Challenge} and {Barriers} to the {Exercise} of {Foresight} {Intelligence}},
volume = {66},
issn = {0006-3568, 1525-3244},
url = {http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/lookup/doi/10.1093/biosci/biw025},
doi = {10.1093/biosci/biw025},
language = {en},
number = {5},
urldate = {2016-12-26},
journal = {BioScience},
author = {Ross, Lee and Arrow, Kenneth and Cialdini, Robert and Diamond-Smith, Nadia and Diamond, Joan and Dunne, Jennifer and Feldman, Marcus and Horn, Robert and Kennedy, Donald and Murphy, Craig and Pirages, Dennis and Smith, Kirk and York, Richard and Ehrlich, Paul},
month = may,
year = {2016},
keywords = {collapse, climate, philosophy, scenarios},
pages = {363--370},
file = {Ross et al. - 2016 - The Climate Change Challenge and Barriers to the E.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\767SC6NK\\Ross et al. - 2016 - The Climate Change Challenge and Barriers to the E.pdf:application/pdf}
}2015 (4)
Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Ridgwell, A., & Caldeira, K. Science Advances, 1(8):e1500589, September, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources. Fossil-fuel resources are sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Fossil-fuel resources are sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
@article{winkelmann_combustion_2015,
title = {Combustion of available fossil fuel resources sufficient to eliminate the {Antarctic} {Ice} {Sheet}},
volume = {1},
issn = {2375-2548},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/8/e1500589},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1500589},
abstract = {The Antarctic Ice Sheet stores water equivalent to 58 m in global sea-level rise. We show in simulations using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model that burning the currently attainable fossil fuel resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice sheet. With cumulative fossil fuel emissions of 10,000 gigatonnes of carbon (GtC), Antarctica is projected to become almost ice-free with an average contribution to sea-level rise exceeding 3 m per century during the first millennium. Consistent with recent observations and simulations, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet becomes unstable with 600 to 800 GtC of additional carbon emissions. Beyond this additional carbon release, the destabilization of ice basins in both West and East Antarctica results in a threshold increase in global sea level. Unabated carbon emissions thus threaten the Antarctic Ice Sheet in its entirety with associated sea-level rise that far exceeds that of all other possible sources.
Fossil-fuel resources are sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Fossil-fuel resources are sufficient to eliminate the Antarctic Ice Sheet.},
language = {en},
number = {8},
urldate = {2015-09-13},
journal = {Science Advances},
author = {Winkelmann, Ricarda and Levermann, Anders and Ridgwell, Andy and Caldeira, Ken},
month = sep,
year = {2015},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, unburnable, fossil},
pages = {e1500589},
file = {Winkelmann et al. - 2015 - Combustion of available fossil fuel resources suff.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\BZZN4HTW\\Winkelmann et al. - 2015 - Combustion of available fossil fuel resources suff.pdf:application/pdf}
}The relationship between biogeography and ecology: envelopes, models, predictions. Heads, M. Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 115(2):456–468, June, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex This paper reviews ideas on the relationship between the ecology of clades and their distribution. Ecological biogeography represents a tradition that dates back to ancient times. It assumes that the distribution of organisms is explained by factors of present environment, especially climate. In contrast, modern systematics, following its origins in the Renaissance, concluded with Darwin that ‘neither the similarity nor the dissimilarity of the inhabitants of various regions can be accounted for by their climatal and other physical conditions’. In many cases, species distribution models – ecological niche models – based on the current environment of a species (its environmental envelope) fail to predict the actual distribution of the species. In particular, they often over-predict distributions. In addition, a group's niche often varies in space and time. These results provide valuable evidence that Darwin was correct, and many ecologists now recognise that there is a problem with the niche theory of distribution. Current ecological processes explain distribution at smaller scales than do biogeographical and evolutionary processes, but the latter can lead to patterns that are much more local than many ecologists have assumed. Biogeographical phenomena often occur at a much smaller scale than that of the Wallacean regions. In areas that have been subjected to marine inundation or intense tectonism, many centres of endemism are only tens of kilometres across. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 115, 456–468.
@article{heads_relationship_2015,
title = {The relationship between biogeography and ecology: envelopes, models, predictions},
volume = {115},
copyright = {© 2015 The Linnean Society of London},
issn = {1095-8312},
shorttitle = {The relationship between biogeography and ecology},
url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bij.12486/abstract},
doi = {10.1111/bij.12486},
abstract = {This paper reviews ideas on the relationship between the ecology of clades and their distribution. Ecological biogeography represents a tradition that dates back to ancient times. It assumes that the distribution of organisms is explained by factors of present environment, especially climate. In contrast, modern systematics, following its origins in the Renaissance, concluded with Darwin that ‘neither the similarity nor the dissimilarity of the inhabitants of various regions can be accounted for by their climatal and other physical conditions’. In many cases, species distribution models – ecological niche models – based on the current environment of a species (its environmental envelope) fail to predict the actual distribution of the species. In particular, they often over-predict distributions. In addition, a group's niche often varies in space and time. These results provide valuable evidence that Darwin was correct, and many ecologists now recognise that there is a problem with the niche theory of distribution. Current ecological processes explain distribution at smaller scales than do biogeographical and evolutionary processes, but the latter can lead to patterns that are much more local than many ecologists have assumed. Biogeographical phenomena often occur at a much smaller scale than that of the Wallacean regions. In areas that have been subjected to marine inundation or intense tectonism, many centres of endemism are only tens of kilometres across. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 115, 456–468.},
language = {en},
number = {2},
urldate = {2015-11-16TZ},
journal = {Biological Journal of the Linnean Society},
author = {Heads, Michael},
month = jun,
year = {2015},
keywords = {California, Climate, Grinnell, centre of origin, dispersal, niche, species distribution models},
pages = {456--468}
}Climate Modulates the Effects of Tree Diversity on Forest Productivity. Jucker, T., Av ̆ac ̆ariței, D., B ̆arnoaiea, I., Duduman, G., Bouriaud, O., & Coomes, D. A. Journal of Ecology, December, 2015.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
[Summary] [::] Despite growing evidence that, on average, diverse forests tend to be more productive than species-poor ones, individual studies often report strongly contrasting relationships between tree species richness and above-ground wood production (AWP). In the attempt to reconcile these apparently inconsistent results, we explored whether the strength and shape of AWP-diversity relationships shifts along spatial and temporal environmental gradients in forests across Europe. [::] We used tree ring data from a network of permanent forest plots distributed at six sites across Europe to estimate annual AWP over a 15-year period (1997-2011). We then tested whether the relationship between tree species richness and AWP changes (i) across sites as a function of large-scale gradients in climatic productivity and tree packing density and (ii) among years within each sites as a result of fluctuating climatic conditions. [::] AWP-species richness relationships varied markedly among sites. As predicted by theory, the relationship shifted from strongly positive at sites where climate imposed a strong limitation on wood production and tree packing densities were low, to weakly negative at sites where climatic conditions for growth were most suitable. In contrast, we found no consistent effect of interannual fluctuations in climate on the strength of AWP-species richness relationships within sites. [::Synthesis]. Our results indicate that the shape and strength of the relationship between tree diversity and forest productivity depends critically on environmental context. Across Europe, tree diversity shows the greatest potential to positively influence forest productivity at either end of the latitudinal gradient, where adverse climatic conditions limit productivity and lead to the development of less densely packed stands. [Excerpt: Implications for Forest Conservation and Management] Identifying where and when tree diversity has the greatest potential to positively influence forest productivity has important implications for forest management and conservation practises, as well as efforts to mitigate climate change (Cardinale et al. 2012; Zhang, Chen & Reich 2012; Scherer-Lorenzen 2014). We found that in terms of maximizing rates of wood production, the benefits of maintaining diverse forests are most pronounced in systems where environmental conditions strongly limit productivity. While our study provides a useful framework for predicting under which conditions tree diversity is likely to matter most, there are, however, several reasons why practises aimed at maintaining diverse forests should not necessarily be limited to specific ecological contexts or geographic regions. For instance, in addition to promoting forest productivity, tree diversity has also been shown to help stabilize wood production over time across a range of forest types, highlighting the fact that mixed-species forests are able to remain productive under a wider range of environmental conditions than monocultures (Jucker et al. 2014a; Morin et al. 2014). Secondly, although we detected clear differences in the importance of tree diversity as a driver of productivity among forest types, only one site showed any indication of a negative association between diversity and productivity. Consequently, even though gains in productivity may be negligible for certain forest types, maintaining diverse forests is unlikely to adversely affect wood production and has the advantage of delivering a number of added ecological and economic co-benefits (e.g. reduced risk of pest and pathogen outbreaks, increased associated biodiversity, greater soil carbon storage; Scherer-Lorenzen 2014). [\n] In addition to highlighting under which circumstance tree diversity is currently most important for forest productivity, our study also provides a number of clues as to how climate change is likely to influence AWP-diversity relationships in future forests. By the end of this century, Mediterranean forests in Europe are expected to suffer more frequent and prolonged periods of drought, while boreal systems are predicted to warm considerably and experience longer growing seasons (Jacob et al. 2014). As a result, diversity effects may weaken in strength, particularly in the case of boreal forests where spring warming is expected to reduce the degree of phenological mismatch among coexisting tree species (Polgar & Primack 2011). More importantly, however, our results suggest that longer-term responses of forests to climate change - such as changes in species composition and forest structure - are what will ultimately determine how the relationship between tree diversity and forest productivity will look like in the future.
@article{juckerClimateModulatesEffects2015,
title = {Climate Modulates the Effects of Tree Diversity on Forest Productivity},
author = {Jucker, Tommaso and Av{\u a}c{\u a}riței, Daniel and B{\u a}rnoaiea, Ionuț and Duduman, Gabriel and Bouriaud, Olivier and Coomes, David A.},
year = {2015},
month = dec,
pages = {n/a},
issn = {1365-2745},
doi = {10.1111/1365-2745.12522},
abstract = {[Summary]
[::] Despite growing evidence that, on average, diverse forests tend to be more productive than species-poor ones, individual studies often report strongly contrasting relationships between tree species richness and above-ground wood production (AWP). In the attempt to reconcile these apparently inconsistent results, we explored whether the strength and shape of AWP-diversity relationships shifts along spatial and temporal environmental gradients in forests across Europe.
[::] We used tree ring data from a network of permanent forest plots distributed at six sites across Europe to estimate annual AWP over a 15-year period (1997-2011). We then tested whether the relationship between tree species richness and AWP changes (i) across sites as a function of large-scale gradients in climatic productivity and tree packing density and (ii) among years within each sites as a result of fluctuating climatic conditions.
[::] AWP-species richness relationships varied markedly among sites. As predicted by theory, the relationship shifted from strongly positive at sites where climate imposed a strong limitation on wood production and tree packing densities were low, to weakly negative at sites where climatic conditions for growth were most suitable. In contrast, we found no consistent effect of interannual fluctuations in climate on the strength of AWP-species richness relationships within sites.
[::Synthesis]. Our results indicate that the shape and strength of the relationship between tree diversity and forest productivity depends critically on environmental context. Across Europe, tree diversity shows the greatest potential to positively influence forest productivity at either end of the latitudinal gradient, where adverse climatic conditions limit productivity and lead to the development of less densely packed stands.
[Excerpt: Implications for Forest Conservation and Management]
Identifying where and when tree diversity has the greatest potential to positively influence forest productivity has important implications for forest management and conservation practises, as well as efforts to mitigate climate change (Cardinale et al. 2012; Zhang, Chen \& Reich 2012; Scherer-Lorenzen 2014). We found that in terms of maximizing rates of wood production, the benefits of maintaining diverse forests are most pronounced in systems where environmental conditions strongly limit productivity. While our study provides a useful framework for predicting under which conditions tree diversity is likely to matter most, there are, however, several reasons why practises aimed at maintaining diverse forests should not necessarily be limited to specific ecological contexts or geographic regions. For instance, in addition to promoting forest productivity, tree diversity has also been shown to help stabilize wood production over time across a range of forest types, highlighting the fact that mixed-species forests are able to remain productive under a wider range of environmental conditions than monocultures (Jucker et al. 2014a; Morin et al. 2014). Secondly, although we detected clear differences in the importance of tree diversity as a driver of productivity among forest types, only one site showed any indication of a negative association between diversity and productivity. Consequently, even though gains in productivity may be negligible for certain forest types, maintaining diverse forests is unlikely to adversely affect wood production and has the advantage of delivering a number of added ecological and economic co-benefits (e.g. reduced risk of pest and pathogen outbreaks, increased associated biodiversity, greater soil carbon storage; Scherer-Lorenzen 2014).
[\textbackslash n] In addition to highlighting under which circumstance tree diversity is currently most important for forest productivity, our study also provides a number of clues as to how climate change is likely to influence AWP-diversity relationships in future forests. By the end of this century, Mediterranean forests in Europe are expected to suffer more frequent and prolonged periods of drought, while boreal systems are predicted to warm considerably and experience longer growing seasons (Jacob et al. 2014). As a result, diversity effects may weaken in strength, particularly in the case of boreal forests where spring warming is expected to reduce the degree of phenological mismatch among coexisting tree species (Polgar \& Primack 2011). More importantly, however, our results suggest that longer-term responses of forests to climate change - such as changes in species composition and forest structure - are what will ultimately determine how the relationship between tree diversity and forest productivity will look like in the future.},
journal = {Journal of Ecology},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13917201,~to-add-doi-URL,biodiversity,climate,diversity,habitat-suitability,mixed-forests,wood-production},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13917201}
}Warm-water coral reefs and climate change. Spalding, M. D. & Brown, B. E. Science, 350(6262):769–771, November, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Coral reefs are highly dynamic ecosystems that are regularly exposed to natural perturbations. Human activities have increased the range, intensity, and frequency of disturbance to reefs. Threats such as overfishing and pollution are being compounded by climate change, notably warming and ocean acidification. Elevated temperatures are driving increasingly frequent bleaching events that can lead to the loss of both coral cover and reef structural complexity. There remains considerable variability in the distribution of threats and in the ability of reefs to survive or recover from such disturbances. Without significant emissions reductions, however, the future of coral reefs is increasingly bleak.
@article{spalding_warm-water_2015,
title = {Warm-water coral reefs and climate change},
volume = {350},
copyright = {Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science},
issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/350/6262/769},
doi = {10.1126/science.aad0349},
abstract = {Coral reefs are highly dynamic ecosystems that are regularly exposed to natural perturbations. Human activities have increased the range, intensity, and frequency of disturbance to reefs. Threats such as overfishing and pollution are being compounded by climate change, notably warming and ocean acidification. Elevated temperatures are driving increasingly frequent bleaching events that can lead to the loss of both coral cover and reef structural complexity. There remains considerable variability in the distribution of threats and in the ability of reefs to survive or recover from such disturbances. Without significant emissions reductions, however, the future of coral reefs is increasingly bleak.},
language = {en},
number = {6262},
urldate = {2016-11-21},
journal = {Science},
author = {Spalding, Mark D. and Brown, Barbara E.},
month = nov,
year = {2015},
pmid = {26564846},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, oceans},
pages = {769--771},
file = {Spalding and Brown - 2015 - Warm-water coral reefs and climate change.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\8KMRIGT8\\Spalding and Brown - 2015 - Warm-water coral reefs and climate change.pdf:application/pdf}
}2014 (9)
Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum. Bowen, G. J., Maibauer, B. J., Kraus, M. J., Röhl, U., Westerhold, T., Steimke, A., Gingerich, P. D., Wing, S. L., & Clyde, W. C. Nature Geoscience, 8(1):44–47, December, 2014. 00026
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The Earth’s climate abruptly warmed by 5–8 °C during the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), about 55.5 million years ago1, 2. This warming was associated with a massive addition of carbon to the ocean–atmosphere system, but estimates of the Earth system response to this perturbation are complicated by widely varying estimates of the duration of carbon release, which range from less than a year to tens of thousands of years. In addition the source of the carbon, and whether it was released as a single injection or in several pulses, remains the subject of debate2, 3, 4. Here we present a new high-resolution carbon isotope record from terrestrial deposits in the Bighorn Basin (Wyoming, USA) spanning the PETM, and interpret the record using a carbon-cycle box model of the ocean–atmosphere–biosphere system. Our record shows that the beginning of the PETM is characterized by not one but two distinct carbon release events, separated by a recovery to background values. To reproduce this pattern, our model requires two discrete pulses of carbon released directly to the atmosphere, at average rates exceeding 0.9 Pg C yr−1, with the first pulse lasting fewer than 2,000 years. We thus conclude that the PETM involved one or more reservoirs capable of repeated, catastrophic carbon release, and that rates of carbon release during the PETM were more similar to those associated with modern anthropogenic emissions5 than previously suggested3, 4
@article{bowen_two_2014,
title = {Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the onset of the {Palaeocene}–{Eocene} thermal maximum},
volume = {8},
issn = {1752-0894, 1752-0908},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo2316},
doi = {10.1038/ngeo2316},
abstract = {The Earth’s climate abruptly warmed by 5–8 °C during the Palaeocene–Eocene thermal maximum (PETM), about 55.5 million years ago1, 2. This warming was associated with a massive addition of carbon to the ocean–atmosphere system, but estimates of the Earth system response to this perturbation are complicated by widely varying estimates of the duration of carbon release, which range from less than a year to tens of thousands of years. In addition the source of the carbon, and whether it was released as a single injection or in several pulses, remains the subject of debate2, 3, 4. Here we present a new high-resolution carbon isotope record from terrestrial deposits in the Bighorn Basin (Wyoming, USA) spanning the PETM, and interpret the record using a carbon-cycle box model of the ocean–atmosphere–biosphere system. Our record shows that the beginning of the PETM is characterized by not one but two distinct carbon release events, separated by a recovery to background values. To reproduce this pattern, our model requires two discrete pulses of carbon released directly to the atmosphere, at average rates exceeding 0.9 Pg C yr−1, with the first pulse lasting fewer than 2,000 years. We thus conclude that the PETM involved one or more reservoirs capable of repeated, catastrophic carbon release, and that rates of carbon release during the PETM were more similar to those associated with modern anthropogenic emissions5 than previously suggested3, 4},
number = {1},
urldate = {2016-12-07},
journal = {Nature Geoscience},
author = {Bowen, Gabriel J. and Maibauer, Bianca J. and Kraus, Mary J. and Röhl, Ursula and Westerhold, Thomas and Steimke, Amy and Gingerich, Philip D. and Wing, Scott L. and Clyde, William C.},
month = dec,
year = {2014},
note = {00026},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
pages = {44--47},
file = {Bowen et al. - 2014 - Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the o.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\HWZQVQ88\\Bowen et al. - 2014 - Two massive, rapid releases of carbon during the o.pdf:application/pdf}
}The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about It. Goldin, I. & Mariathasan, M. Princeton University Press, New-Jersey, USA, 2014.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
Global hyperconnectivity and increased system integration have led to vast benefits, including worldwide growth in incomes, education, innovation, and technology. But rapid globalization has also created concerns because the repercussions of local events now cascade over national borders and the fallout of financial meltdowns and environmental disasters affects everyone. The Butterfly Defect addresses the widening gap between systemic risks and their effective management. It shows how the new dynamics of turbo-charged globalization has the potential and power to destabilize our societies. Drawing on the latest insights from a wide variety of disciplines, Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan provide practical guidance for how governments, businesses, and individuals can better manage risk in our contemporary world. Goldin and Mariathasan assert that the current complexities of globalization will not be sustainable as surprises become more frequent and have widespread impacts. The recent financial crisis exemplifies the new form of systemic risk that will characterize the coming decades, and the authors provide the first framework for understanding how such risk will function in the twenty-first century. Goldin and Mariathasan demonstrate that systemic risk issues are now endemic everywhere–in supply chains, pandemics, infrastructure, ecology and climate change, economics, and politics. Unless we are better able to address these concerns, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and, inevitably, deglobalization, rising conflict, and slower growth. The Butterfly Defect shows that mitigating uncertainty and systemic risk in an interconnected world is an essential task for our future.
@book{goldin_butterfly_2014,
address = {New-Jersey, USA},
title = {The {Butterfly} {Defect}: {How} {Globalization} {Creates} {Systemic} {Risks}, and {What} to {Do} about {It}},
abstract = {Global hyperconnectivity and increased system integration have led to vast benefits, including worldwide growth in incomes, education, innovation, and technology. But rapid globalization has also created concerns because the repercussions of local events now cascade over national borders and the fallout of financial meltdowns and environmental disasters affects everyone. The Butterfly Defect addresses the widening gap between systemic risks and their effective management. It shows how the new dynamics of turbo-charged globalization has the potential and power to destabilize our societies. Drawing on the latest insights from a wide variety of disciplines, Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan provide practical guidance for how governments, businesses, and individuals can better manage risk in our contemporary world. Goldin and Mariathasan assert that the current complexities of globalization will not be sustainable as surprises become more frequent and have widespread impacts. The recent financial crisis exemplifies the new form of systemic risk that will characterize the coming decades, and the authors provide the first framework for understanding how such risk will function in the twenty-first century. Goldin and Mariathasan demonstrate that systemic risk issues are now endemic everywhere--in supply chains, pandemics, infrastructure, ecology and climate change, economics, and politics. Unless we are better able to address these concerns, they will lead to greater protectionism, xenophobia, nationalism, and, inevitably, deglobalization, rising conflict, and slower growth. The Butterfly Defect shows that mitigating uncertainty and systemic risk in an interconnected world is an essential task for our future.},
language = {English},
publisher = {Princeton University Press},
author = {Goldin, Ian and Mariathasan, Mike},
year = {2014},
keywords = {inequality, governance, collapse, infrastructures, climate, disasters, systemic-risks, supply-chains}
}Climate change impacts in the United States, highlights: U.S. national climate assessment. U.S. Global Change Research Program 2014.
Paper bibtex
Paper bibtex @book{u.s._global_change_research_program_climate_2014,
title = {Climate change impacts in the {United} {States}, highlights: {U}.{S}. national climate assessment},
isbn = {978-0-16-092403-3 0-16-092403-0},
shorttitle = {Climate change impacts in the {United} {States}, highlights},
url = {http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo48681},
language = {English},
urldate = {2014-07-30},
author = {{U.S. Global Change Research Program}},
year = {2014},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
file = {U.S. Global Change Research Program - 2014 - Climate change impacts in the United States, highl.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\JX4FUQZQ\\U.S. Global Change Research Program - 2014 - Climate change impacts in the United States, highl.pdf:application/pdf}
}A Climate-Based Model to Predict Potential Treeline Position around the Globe. Paulsen, J. & Körner, C. Alpine Botany, 124(1):1–12, 2014.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
In situ temperature measurements revealed that the position of the high-elevation treeline is associated with a minimum seasonal mean air temperature within a temperature-defined minimum season length across latitudes. Here, we build upon this experience and present the results of a global statistical analysis and a predictive model for low temperature treeline positions. We identified 376 natural treelines from satellite images across the globe, and searched for their closest climatic proxies using a climate database. The analysis included a snow and a water balance submodel to account for season length constraints by snow pack and drought. We arrive at thermal treeline criteria almost identical to those that emerged from the earlier in situ measurements: tree growth requires a minimum length of the growing season of 94 days. The model yields best fit when the season is defined as all days with a daily mean temperature $>$0.9 °C, and a mean of 6.4 °C across all these days. The resultant treeline model 'TREELIM' offers a robust estimation of potential treeline elevation based on climate data only. Error terms include imprecise treeline position in satellite images and climate approximations in mountainous terrain. The algorithm permits constraining low temperature limits of forest growth worldwide (including polar treelines) and also permits a bioclimatic stratification of mountain biota, for instance, for biodiversity assessments. As a side product, the model yields the global potentially forested area. The results support the isotherm theory for natural treeline formation. This completely independent statistical assessment of the climatic drivers of the global treeline phenomenon confirmed the results of a multi-year measurement campaign. [Excerpt: Basic model assumptions and definition of climatic treeline proxies] From our earlier works with data loggers (Körner and Paulsen 2004), it emerged that only three independent parameters are necessary to model treeline elevation by standardized meteorological data: (a) a threshold temperature DTMIN that constrains the growing season; (b) a minimum mean temperature for all days of the growing season SMT as defined in (a); (c) a minimum length of the growing season LGS. The definition of the growing season is a central issue, because temperatures outside the growing season have no predictive value (Körner 2012). The model, thus, needs to select periods suitable for tree growth, which means, warm enough conditions with sufficient soil moisture and no snow cover. [\n] Defining the beginning and end of the growing season by a critical air temperature only (as in Körner and Paulsen 2004) turned out to be problematic at a global scale because this procedure does not account for irregular seasonal temperatures at equatorial latitudes, and it does not account for snow pack and drought. Therefore, the TREELIM model presented here uses a LGS representing the sum of days with a daily mean temperature above a defined threshold temperature (DTMIN). The mean temperature of the growing season (SMT) for any site is then calculated by averaging the daily means for all these days. Days during which snow is present or during which soil water is not available do not count for season length [...] [\n] [...] [::Snowpack] The snow module of TREELIM accounts for the assumption that trees do not exert significant growth as long as there is late-laying snow on the ground. Snow pack may thus constrain the length of the growing period, despite warm air temperatures. It was assumed that all precipitation that falls at daily mean temperatures $\leq$0 °C fall as snow, and snow was assumed to stay and accumulate on the ground as long as daily mean temperatures remained $<$0 °C. If a snow layer is present, snow is assumed to melt whenever daily mean temperatures are $>$0 °C at a rate of 0.84 kg m-2 day-1 for each degree $>$0 °C (the WATFLOOD model; http://www.civil.uwaterloo.ca/watflood/). Sublimation was ignored. [\n] Whenever rain falls on an existing snow layer, this water cools to 0 °C and the thermal energy (4.186 kJ kg-1 K-1) is used to melt snow (333.5 kJ kg-1 snow). Thus, 1 mm of rain melts 1/80 kg m-2 snow per degree air temperature above 0 °C. The quantity of snow pack (in kg m-2) was calculated by a simple input-output model with a daily resolution: snow layer at day (i) = snow layer at day (i - 1) + snowfall at day (i) - snow melt at day (i). [\n] [...] [::Site water balance] [...] The water balance equation was solved by a submodel of TREELIM that accounts for precipitation (liquid and solid), evapotranspiration, and the resulting soil water content. Since climate databases offer only monthly precipitation, we had to approximate actual rainfall regimes, assuming that air temperature determines saturated vapour content of the air. We then adopted a temperature-related stepwise interpolation of mean daily rainfall from annual data with a monthly resolution. This given amount of precipitation water was allocated by plausibility to precipitation events in the following way: The mean per day event was assumed to be 5 mm if the monthly mean T was $<$5 °C, 10 mm for 5-10 °C, 15 mm for 10-15 °C, 20 mm for $>$15 °C. For instance, if the monthly mean temperature is 7.3 °C and the monthly precipitation is 27.4 mm, precipitation events are assumed to be 10 mm each, one on day 7, one on day 14, and the remaining 7.4 mm are assumed to fall on day 21. [\n] This procedure is more realistic than for instance splitting monthly precipitation into 30 events. Since soil moisture is buffering moisture availability, the actual fragmentation of monthly precipitation is not very critical, except for conditions where drought is critical, which is rare at alpine treeline elevations. Errors introduced by this procedure are certainly small compared to the uncertainty of actual precipitation at treeline, based on climatic layers derived from low elevation climate stations. [::Daily Potential evapotranspiration] (DPET) was estimated using the Hargreaves equation (Hargreaves and Samani 1985) in the FAO-56 form as adopted by Allen et al. (1998), again with a daily resolution. [...] [::The water balance] for a given day was then calculated with a two-layer bucket model for a given soil water holding capacity as defined by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP 2000). [...] [\n] [...]
@article{paulsenClimatebasedModelPredict2014,
title = {A Climate-Based Model to Predict Potential Treeline Position around the Globe},
author = {Paulsen, Jens and K{\"o}rner, Christian},
year = {2014},
volume = {124},
pages = {1--12},
issn = {1664-221X},
doi = {10.1007/s00035-014-0124-0},
abstract = {In situ temperature measurements revealed that the position of the high-elevation treeline is associated with a minimum seasonal mean air temperature within a temperature-defined minimum season length across latitudes. Here, we build upon this experience and present the results of a global statistical analysis and a predictive model for low temperature treeline positions. We identified 376 natural treelines from satellite images across the globe, and searched for their closest climatic proxies using a climate database. The analysis included a snow and a water balance submodel to account for season length constraints by snow pack and drought. We arrive at thermal treeline criteria almost identical to those that emerged from the earlier in situ measurements: tree growth requires a minimum length of the growing season of 94 days. The model yields best fit when the season is defined as all days with a daily mean temperature {$>$}0.9 \textdegree C, and a mean of 6.4 \textdegree C across all these days. The resultant treeline model 'TREELIM' offers a robust estimation of potential treeline elevation based on climate data only. Error terms include imprecise treeline position in satellite images and climate approximations in mountainous terrain. The algorithm permits constraining low temperature limits of forest growth worldwide (including polar treelines) and also permits a bioclimatic stratification of mountain biota, for instance, for biodiversity assessments. As a side product, the model yields the global potentially forested area. The results support the isotherm theory for natural treeline formation. This completely independent statistical assessment of the climatic drivers of the global treeline phenomenon confirmed the results of a multi-year measurement campaign.
[Excerpt: Basic model assumptions and definition of climatic treeline proxies]
From our earlier works with data loggers (K\"orner and Paulsen 2004), it emerged that only three independent parameters are necessary to model treeline elevation by standardized meteorological data: (a) a threshold temperature DTMIN that constrains the growing season; (b) a minimum mean temperature for all days of the growing season SMT as defined in (a); (c) a minimum length of the growing season LGS. The definition of the growing season is a central issue, because temperatures outside the growing season have no predictive value (K\"orner 2012). The model, thus, needs to select periods suitable for tree growth, which means, warm enough conditions with sufficient soil moisture and no snow cover.
[\textbackslash n] Defining the beginning and end of the growing season by a critical air temperature only (as in K\"orner and Paulsen 2004) turned out to be problematic at a global scale because this procedure does not account for irregular seasonal temperatures at equatorial latitudes, and it does not account for snow pack and drought. Therefore, the TREELIM model presented here uses a LGS representing the sum of days with a daily mean temperature above a defined threshold temperature (DTMIN). The mean temperature of the growing season (SMT) for any site is then calculated by averaging the daily means for all these days. Days during which snow is present or during which soil water is not available do not count for season length [...]
[\textbackslash n] [...]
[::Snowpack] The snow module of TREELIM accounts for the assumption that trees do not exert significant growth as long as there is late-laying snow on the ground. Snow pack may thus constrain the length of the growing period, despite warm air temperatures. It was assumed that all precipitation that falls at daily mean temperatures {$\leq$}0 \textdegree C fall as snow, and snow was assumed to stay and accumulate on the ground as long as daily mean temperatures remained {$<$}0 \textdegree C. If a snow layer is present, snow is assumed to melt whenever daily mean temperatures are {$>$}0 \textdegree C at a rate of 0.84 kg m-2 day-1 for each degree {$>$}0 \textdegree C (the WATFLOOD model; http://www.civil.uwaterloo.ca/watflood/). Sublimation was ignored.
[\textbackslash n] Whenever rain falls on an existing snow layer, this water cools to 0 \textdegree C and the thermal energy (4.186 kJ kg-1 K-1) is used to melt snow (333.5 kJ kg-1 snow). Thus, 1 mm of rain melts 1/80 kg m-2 snow per degree air temperature above 0 \textdegree C. The quantity of snow pack (in kg m-2) was calculated by a simple input-output model with a daily resolution: snow layer at day (i) = snow layer at day (i - 1) + snowfall at day (i) - snow melt at day (i).
[\textbackslash n] [...]
[::Site water balance] [...] The water balance equation was solved by a submodel of TREELIM that accounts for precipitation (liquid and solid), evapotranspiration, and the resulting soil water content. Since climate databases offer only monthly precipitation, we had to approximate actual rainfall regimes, assuming that air temperature determines saturated vapour content of the air. We then adopted a temperature-related stepwise interpolation of mean daily rainfall from annual data with a monthly resolution. This given amount of precipitation water was allocated by plausibility to precipitation events in the following way: The mean per day event was assumed to be 5 mm if the monthly mean T was {$<$}5 \textdegree C, 10 mm for 5-10 \textdegree C, 15 mm for 10-15 \textdegree C, 20 mm for {$>$}15 \textdegree C. For instance, if the monthly mean temperature is 7.3 \textdegree C and the monthly precipitation is 27.4 mm, precipitation events are assumed to be 10 mm each, one on day 7, one on day 14, and the remaining 7.4 mm are assumed to fall on day 21.
[\textbackslash n] This procedure is more realistic than for instance splitting monthly precipitation into 30 events. Since soil moisture is buffering moisture availability, the actual fragmentation of monthly precipitation is not very critical, except for conditions where drought is critical, which is rare at alpine treeline elevations. Errors introduced by this procedure are certainly small compared to the uncertainty of actual precipitation at treeline, based on climatic layers derived from low elevation climate stations.
[::Daily Potential evapotranspiration] (DPET) was estimated using the Hargreaves equation (Hargreaves and Samani 1985) in the FAO-56 form as adopted by Allen et al. (1998), again with a daily resolution. [...]
[::The water balance] for a given day was then calculated with a two-layer bucket model for a given soil water holding capacity as defined by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP 2000). [...]
[\textbackslash n] [...]},
journal = {Alpine Botany},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14127697,bioclimatic-predictors,climate,ecological-zones,environmental-modelling,forest-resources,global-scale,landscape-dynamics,precipitation,snow,temperature,tree-line},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14127697},
number = {1}
}Comparison of one-moment and two-moment bulk microphysics for high-resolution climate simulations of intense precipitation. Van Weverberg, K., Goudenhoofdt, E., Blahak, U., Brisson, E., Demuzere, M., Marbaix, P., & van Ypersele, J. Atmospheric Research, 147-148:145-161, Elsevier B.V., 10, 2014.
Website bibtex
Website bibtex @article{
title = {Comparison of one-moment and two-moment bulk microphysics for high-resolution climate simulations of intense precipitation},
type = {article},
year = {2014},
identifiers = {[object Object]},
keywords = {Climate,Convection-permitting simulations,Drop size sorting,Microphysics parameterization,Precipitation,microphysics parameterization},
pages = {145-161},
volume = {147-148},
websites = {https://www.dropbox.com/s/67sv84w3rotqmjl/VanWeverberg_etal_2014_AR.pdf?dl=0},
month = {10},
publisher = {Elsevier B.V.},
id = {1d327ba4-127b-340b-ac38-4fc2e302e91a},
created = {2019-03-22T10:54:17.010Z},
accessed = {2014-09-25},
file_attached = {false},
profile_id = {aa627fb0-f303-3d6c-90ec-f11313cac462},
group_id = {b33c0453-50f1-3116-bf7a-ce968cfd9f05},
last_modified = {2019-03-22T10:54:17.010Z},
read = {true},
starred = {false},
authored = {false},
confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
citation_key = {VanWeverberg2014},
private_publication = {false},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Van Weverberg, Kwinten and Goudenhoofdt, Edouard and Blahak, Ulrich and Brisson, Erwan and Demuzere, Matthias and Marbaix, Philippe and van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal},
journal = {Atmospheric Research}
}Oil and gas wells and their integrity: Implications for shale and unconventional resource exploitation. Davies, R. J., Almond, S., Ward, R. S., Jackson, R. B., Adams, C., Worrall, F., Herringshaw, L. G., Gluyas, J. G., & Whitehead, M. A. Marine and Petroleum Geology, 56:239–254, September, 2014. 00002
Paper doi bibtex
Paper doi bibtex @article{davies_oil_2014,
title = {Oil and gas wells and their integrity: {Implications} for shale and unconventional resource exploitation},
volume = {56},
issn = {02648172},
shorttitle = {Oil and gas wells and their integrity},
url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0264817214000609},
doi = {10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2014.03.001},
language = {en},
urldate = {2014-06-19},
journal = {Marine and Petroleum Geology},
author = {Davies, Richard J. and Almond, Sam and Ward, Robert S. and Jackson, Robert B. and Adams, Charlotte and Worrall, Fred and Herringshaw, Liam G. and Gluyas, Jon G. and Whitehead, Mark A.},
month = sep,
year = {2014},
note = {00002},
keywords = {energy, limits, collapse, gas, oil, climate, fossil},
pages = {239--254},
file = {Davies et al. - 2014 - Oil and gas wells and their integrity Implication.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\FBQPMQMW\\Davies et al. - 2014 - Oil and gas wells and their integrity Implication.pdf:application/pdf}
}Extreme temperatures and violence. Raleigh, C., Linke, A., & O'loughlin, J. Nature Climate Change, 4(2):76–77, 2014. 00034
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Ascribing violence to extreme weather and climate change risks anchoring a modern form of environmental determinism.
@article{raleigh_extreme_2014,
title = {Extreme temperatures and violence},
volume = {4},
url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n2/full/nclimate2101.html},
abstract = {Ascribing violence to extreme weather and climate change risks anchoring a modern form of environmental determinism.},
number = {2},
urldate = {2017-02-16},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
author = {Raleigh, Clionadh and Linke, Andrew and O'loughlin, John},
year = {2014},
note = {00034},
keywords = {violence-conflicts-wars, collapse, climate},
pages = {76--77},
file = {Raleigh et al. - 2014 - Extreme temperatures and violence.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\ZVSGJXDR\\Raleigh et al. - 2014 - Extreme temperatures and violence.pdf:application/pdf}
}Early occurrence of temperate oak-dominated forest in the northern part of the Little Hungarian Plain, SW Slovakia. Jamrichová, E., Potůčková, A., Horsák, M., Hajnalová, M., Barta, P., Tóth, P., & Kuneš, P. The Holocene, 24(12):1810–1824, December, 2014. [IF2013=3.794]
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Using a multi-proxy analysis of a postglacial sedimentary sequence from a lowland wetland, we address the possible drivers of change in the wetland habitats and surrounding landscapes of southwestern Slovakia. A 5 m-deep core in the Parížske močiare marshes was investigated for pollen, plant macro-remains, molluscs, organic content and magnetic susceptibility. The palaeoecological record extends from the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (≥11,200 cal. BP) to the 5th millennium cal. BP and was correlated with a macrophysical climate model (MCM) and archaeological data. Our results show the transformation of an open parkland landscape with patches of coniferous forest to a temperate deciduous forest at the onset of the Holocene. The record is remarkable for an early occurrence of Quercus pollen and macro-remains around 11,200 cal. BP and its early expansion (10,390 cal. BP) in the vegetation. Such an early spread of Quercus has not previously been recorded in the region, where Corylus is usually the first to expand among temperate trees. This unusual development of forest communities was most probably triggered by a short-lived increase in precipitation and decrease in temperature, as reconstructed by the MCM model. Higher moisture availability and low temperature inhibited Corylus and favoured the spread of Quercus. Later, the climate became drier and warmer, which, together with fires, supported the expansion of Corylus. Since 7300 cal. BP, human activities became most likely the dominant influence on the landscape. Deforestation contributed to soil erosion, which halted the accumulation of organic material after 5520 cal. BP, followed by the accumulation of clay sediments.
@article{jamrichova_early_2014,
title = {Early occurrence of temperate oak-dominated forest in the northern part of the {Little} {Hungarian} {Plain}, {SW} {Slovakia}},
volume = {24},
copyright = {All rights reserved},
issn = {0959-6836, 1477-0911},
doi = {10.1177/0959683614551225},
abstract = {Using a multi-proxy analysis of a postglacial sedimentary sequence from a lowland wetland, we address the possible drivers of change in the wetland habitats and surrounding landscapes of southwestern Slovakia. A 5 m-deep core in the Parížske močiare marshes was investigated for pollen, plant macro-remains, molluscs, organic content and magnetic susceptibility. The palaeoecological record extends from the Pleistocene–Holocene transition (≥11,200 cal. BP) to the 5th millennium cal. BP and was correlated with a macrophysical climate model (MCM) and archaeological data. Our results show the transformation of an open parkland landscape with patches of coniferous forest to a temperate deciduous forest at the onset of the Holocene. The record is remarkable for an early occurrence of Quercus pollen and macro-remains around 11,200 cal. BP and its early expansion (10,390 cal. BP) in the vegetation. Such an early spread of Quercus has not previously been recorded in the region, where Corylus is usually the first to expand among temperate trees. This unusual development of forest communities was most probably triggered by a short-lived increase in precipitation and decrease in temperature, as reconstructed by the MCM model. Higher moisture availability and low temperature inhibited Corylus and favoured the spread of Quercus. Later, the climate became drier and warmer, which, together with fires, supported the expansion of Corylus. Since 7300 cal. BP, human activities became most likely the dominant influence on the landscape. Deforestation contributed to soil erosion, which halted the accumulation of organic material after 5520 cal. BP, followed by the accumulation of clay sediments.},
language = {English},
number = {12},
urldate = {2014-12-10},
journal = {The Holocene},
author = {Jamrichová, Eva and Potůčková, Anna and Horsák, Michal and Hajnalová, Mária and Barta, Peter and Tóth, Peter and Kuneš, Petr},
month = dec,
year = {2014},
note = {[IF2013=3.794]},
keywords = {Lowland vegetation, MCM model, Palaeoecology, Plant macroremains, Slovakia, climate, conservation, cultural landscape, human impact, multi-proxy, pollen analysis},
pages = {1810--1824},
}Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission. Ricke, K. L. & Caldeira, K. Environmental Research Letters, 9(12):124002, December, 2014. 00000
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.
@article{ricke_maximum_2014,
title = {Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission},
volume = {9},
issn = {1748-9326},
url = {http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/12/124002},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002},
abstract = {It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90\% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.},
language = {en},
number = {12},
urldate = {2015-02-20},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
author = {Ricke, Katharine L. and Caldeira, Ken},
month = dec,
year = {2014},
note = {00000},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
pages = {124002},
file = {Ricke and Caldeira - 2014 - Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a ca.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\W8KDDV5T\\Ricke and Caldeira - 2014 - Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a ca.pdf:application/pdf}
}2013 (9)
Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the 20th Century. Barreca, A., Clay, K., Deschenes, O., Greenstone, M., & Shapiro, J. Technical Report w18692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, January, 2013. DOI: 10.3386/w18692
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Adaptation is the only strategy that is guaranteed to be part of the world's climate strategy. Using the most comprehensive set of data files ever compiled on mortality and its determinants over the course of the 20th century, this paper makes two primary discoveries. First, we find that the mortality effect of an extremely hot day declined by about 80% between 1900-1959 and 1960-2004. As a consequence, days with temperatures exceeding 90°F were responsible for about 600 premature fatalities annually in the 1960-2004 period, compared to the approximately 3,600 premature fatalities that would have occurred if the temperature-mortality relationship from before 1960 still prevailed. Second, the adoption of residential air conditioning (AC) explains essentially the entire decline in the temperature-mortality relationship. In contrast, increased access to electricity and health care seem not to affect mortality on extremely hot days. Residential AC appears to be both the most promising technology to help poor countries mitigate the temperature related mortality impacts of climate change and, because fossil fuels are the least expensive source of energy, a technology whose proliferation will speed up the rate of climate change.
@techreport{barreca_adapting_2013,
address = {Cambridge, MA},
title = {Adapting to {Climate} {Change}: {The} {Remarkable} {Decline} in the {U}.{S}. {Temperature}-{Mortality} {Relationship} over the 20th {Century}},
shorttitle = {Adapting to {Climate} {Change}},
url = {http://www.nber.org/papers/w18692.pdf},
abstract = {Adaptation is the only strategy that is guaranteed to be part of the world's climate strategy. Using the most comprehensive set of data files ever compiled on mortality and its determinants over the course of the 20th century, this paper makes two primary discoveries. First, we find that the mortality effect of an extremely hot day declined by about 80\% between 1900-1959 and 1960-2004. As a consequence, days with temperatures exceeding 90°F were responsible for about 600 premature fatalities annually in the 1960-2004 period, compared to the approximately 3,600 premature fatalities that would have occurred if the temperature-mortality relationship from before 1960 still prevailed. Second, the adoption of residential air conditioning (AC) explains essentially the entire decline in the temperature-mortality relationship. In contrast, increased access to electricity and health care seem not to affect mortality on extremely hot days. Residential AC appears to be both the most promising technology to help poor countries mitigate the temperature related mortality impacts of climate change and, because fossil fuels are the least expensive source of energy, a technology whose proliferation will speed up the rate of climate change.},
language = {en},
number = {w18692},
urldate = {2017-05-23},
institution = {National Bureau of Economic Research},
author = {Barreca, Alan and Clay, Karen and Deschenes, Olivier and Greenstone, Michael and Shapiro, Joseph},
month = jan,
year = {2013},
note = {DOI: 10.3386/w18692},
keywords = {Climate, Global warming, Natural disasters, Public health}
}Hidden Heat. Nature Nature, 500(7464):501, August, 2013.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Scientists are homing in on the reasons for the current hiatus in global warming, but all must recognize that the long-term risk of warming from carbon dioxide remains high.
@article{natureHiddenHeat2013,
title = {Hidden Heat},
author = {{Nature}},
year = {2013},
month = aug,
volume = {500},
pages = {501},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/500501a},
abstract = {Scientists are homing in on the reasons for the current hiatus in global warming, but all must recognize that the long-term risk of warming from carbon dioxide remains high.},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12601813,climate,climate-projections,global-scale,global-warming,modelling-uncertainty,temperature,uncertainty},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12601813},
number = {7464}
}Climate impacts in Europe: an integrated economic assessment. Ciscar, J. C., Feyen, L., Soria, A., Lavalle, C., Perry, M., Raes, F., Nemry, F., Demirel, H., Rozsai, M., Dosio, A., Donatelli, M., Srivastava, A., Fumagalli, D., Zucchini, A., Shrestha, S., Ciaian, P., Himics, M., Doorslaer, B. V., Barrios, S., Ib́añez, N., Rojas, R., Bianchi, A., Dowling, P., Camia, A., Libert̀a, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., Barredo, J. I., Paci, D., Pycroft, J., Saveyn, B., Regemorter, D. V., Revesz, T., Mubareka, S., Baranzelli, C., Gomes, C. R., Lung, T., & Ibarreta, D. In Impacts World 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects, pages 87--96, May, 2013. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. V..
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The JRC PESETA II study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic CGE model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand, river floods, sea-level rise, forest fires, transport infrastructure). The results show that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across EU regions, with strong geographical asymmetries, depending on the specific impact category and climate future. For instance, Northern Central Europe has negative impacts mainly related to sea level rise and river floods while Southern Europe is affected mainly by agriculture. The study also explores the significance of transboundary effects (where climate change causes economic damages outside the region directly affected).
@inproceedings{ citeulike:12378515,
abstract = {The {JRC} {PESETA} {II} study integrates the consequences of several separate climate change impacts into a macroeconomic {CGE} model. This enables comparison of the different impacts based on common metrics (household welfare and economic activity). The study uses a large set of climate model runs (twelve) and impact categories (agriculture, energy demand, river floods, sea-level rise, forest fires, transport infrastructure).
The results show that there is a wide dispersion of impacts across {EU} regions, with strong geographical asymmetries, depending on the specific impact category and climate future. For instance, Northern Central Europe has negative impacts mainly related to sea level rise and river floods while Southern Europe is affected mainly by agriculture. The study also explores the significance of transboundary effects (where climate change causes economic damages outside the region directly affected).},
author = {Ciscar, J. C. and Feyen, L. and Soria, A. and Lavalle, C. and Perry, M. and Raes, F. and Nemry, F. and Demirel, H. and Rozsai, M. and Dosio, A. and Donatelli, M. and Srivastava, A. and Fumagalli, D. and Zucchini, A. and Shrestha, S. and Ciaian, P. and Himics, M. and Van Doorslaer, B. and Barrios, S. and Ib́{a}ñez, N. and Rojas, R. and Bianchi, A. and Dowling, P. and Camia, A. and Libert̀{a}, G. and San-Miguel-Ayanz, J. and de Rigo, D. and Caudullo, G. and Barredo, J. I. and Paci, D. and Pycroft, J. and Saveyn, B. and Van Regemorter, D. and Revesz, T. and Mubareka, S. and Baranzelli, C. and Rocha Gomes, C. and Lung, T. and Ibarreta, D.},
booktitle = {Impacts World 2013 - International Conference on Climate Change Effects},
citeulike-article-id = {12378515},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
citeulike-linkout-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2312/pik.2013.001},
citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://scholar.google.it/scholar?cluster=3554762681150763424},
citeulike-linkout-3 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.2312/pik.2013.001},
citeulike-linkout-4 = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
doi = {10.2312/pik.2013.001},
keywords = {anthropogenic-impacts, assessment, climate, climate-change, economic-impacts, economics, europe, european-union, integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management, integration-techniques, multiauthor},
location = {Postdam, Germany},
month = {May},
organization = {Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e. V.},
pages = {87--96},
posted-at = {2013-05-30 01:23:43},
priority = {2},
title = {Climate impacts in Europe: an integrated economic assessment},
url = {http://www.climate-impacts-2013.org/files/cwi_ciscar.pdf},
year = {2013}
}Changes and interactions between forest landscape connectivity and burnt area in Spain. Martín-Martín, C., Bunce, R. G. H., Saura, S., & Elena-Rosselló, R. Ecological Indicators, 33:129--138, October, 2013.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The spatial structure, functionality and dynamics of forest landscapes in peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands were compared over the last five decades. Two particular features were studied in the sample sites: forest connectivity for wildlife and areas burnt by wildfires. 191 Squares, each 4 km × 4 km, were selected from the SISPARES (the monitoring framework designed to evaluate the trends in the structure of Spanish rural landscapes) environmental strata. Aerial photographs from 1956, 1984, 1998 and 2008 were interpreted and 11 land cover categories mapped and checked in the field, using a minimum mapping area of one hectare. The Equivalent Connected Area Index was used to assess forest connectivity over the sampling period. Social and economical factors were assessed using indicators of farm intensiveness. The Spanish forest connectivity has improved in the last five decades although two different trends can be identified: the first 40 years are characterized by positive rates of growth whereas the 10 last years are characterized by their stability. Nevertheless the area of burnt land was higher along the first 25 studied years and decreased significantly over the last decade. Our results show the climate is the main driver in the evolution of forest connectivity and burnt area in the forest landscapes, playing a direct role on forest biomass production and wildfire ignition and propagation, as well as an indirect role by keeping vertical and horizontal forest continuity through the landscape spatial pattern. Social and economic factors are very important drivers as well: Rural population density and farm size average have been tested as good indicators of landscape artificiality, highly correlated to wildfire hazard and forest connectivity. Finally, we have pointed out the evolutionary path followed by SISPARES framework as a tool for monitoring rural landscapes. It emphasises on the requirement of a 30 years time window for building-up reliable dynamic multifunctional model.
@article{citeulike:13399222,
abstract = {The spatial structure, functionality and dynamics of forest landscapes in peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands were compared over the last five decades. Two particular features were studied in the sample sites: forest connectivity for wildlife and areas burnt by wildfires. 191 Squares, each 4 km × 4 km, were selected from the {SISPARES} (the monitoring framework designed to evaluate the trends in the structure of Spanish rural landscapes) environmental strata. Aerial photographs from 1956, 1984, 1998 and 2008 were interpreted and 11 land cover categories mapped and checked in the field, using a minimum mapping area of one hectare. The Equivalent Connected Area Index was used to assess forest connectivity over the sampling period. Social and economical factors were assessed using indicators of farm intensiveness. The Spanish forest connectivity has improved in the last five decades although two different trends can be identified: the first 40 years are characterized by positive rates of growth whereas the 10 last years are characterized by their stability. Nevertheless the area of burnt land was higher along the first 25 studied years and decreased significantly over the last decade.
Our results show the climate is the main driver in the evolution of forest connectivity and burnt area in the forest landscapes, playing a direct role on forest biomass production and wildfire ignition and propagation, as well as an indirect role by keeping vertical and horizontal forest continuity through the landscape spatial pattern. Social and economic factors are very important drivers as well: Rural population density and farm size average have been tested as good indicators of landscape artificiality, highly correlated to wildfire hazard and forest connectivity.
Finally, we have pointed out the evolutionary path followed by {SISPARES} framework as a tool for monitoring rural landscapes. It emphasises on the requirement of a 30 years time window for building-up reliable dynamic multifunctional model.},
author = {Mart\'{\i}n-Mart\'{\i}n, Carmen and Bunce, Robert G. H. and Saura, Santiago and Elena-Rossell\'{o}, Ram\'{o}n},
citeulike-article-id = {13399222},
citeulike-linkout-0 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.01.018},
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citeulike-linkout-2 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.01.018},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.01.018},
issn = {1470-160X},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
keywords = {climate, connectivity, cross-disciplinary-perspective, environment-society-economy, forest-biomass, forest-fires, forest-resources, fragmentation, integration-techniques, spain, spatial-pattern},
month = oct,
pages = {129--138},
posted-at = {2014-10-16 17:17:26},
priority = {2},
title = {Changes and interactions between forest landscape connectivity and burnt area in Spain},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.01.018},
volume = {33},
year = {2013}
}Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Santer, B., D., Painter, J., F., Bonfils, C., Mears, C., a., Solomon, S., Wigley, T., M., L., Gleckler, P., J., Schmidt, G., a., Doutriaux, C., Gillett, N., P., Taylor, K., E., Thorne, P., W., & Wentz, F., J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110(43):17235-40, 10, 2013.
Paper Website abstract bibtex
Paper Website abstract bibtex Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.
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abstract = {Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Santer, Benjamin D and Painter, Jeffrey F and Bonfils, Céline and Mears, Carl a and Solomon, Susan and Wigley, Tom M L and Gleckler, Peter J and Schmidt, Gavin a and Doutriaux, Charles and Gillett, Nathan P and Taylor, Karl E and Thorne, Peter W and Wentz, Frank J},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
number = {43}
}Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Hansen, J., Sato, M., Russell, G., & Kharecha, P. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 371(2001):20120294, October, 2013.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.
@article{hansen_climate_2013,
title = {Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide},
volume = {371},
issn = {1364-503X, 1471-2962},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/371/2001/20120294},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2012.0294},
abstract = {Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.},
language = {en},
number = {2001},
urldate = {2014-02-10},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
author = {Hansen, James and Sato, Makiko and Russell, Gary and Kharecha, Pushker},
month = oct,
year = {2013},
pmid = {24043864},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
pages = {20120294},
file = {Hansen et al. - 2013 - Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric car.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\446P8UCH\\Hansen et al. - 2013 - Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric car.pdf:application/pdf}
}Evidence for a rapid release of carbon at the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. Wright, J. D. & Schaller, M. F. The Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and associated carbon isotope excursion (CIE) are often touted as the best geologic analog for the current anthropogenic rise in pCO2. However, a causal mechanism for the PETM CIE remains unidentified because of large uncertainties in the duration of the CIE’s onset. Here, we report on a sequence of rhythmic sedimentary couplets comprising the Paleocene/Eocene Marlboro Clay (Salisbury Embayment). These couplets have corresponding δ18O cycles that imply a climatic origin. Seasonal insolation is the only regular climate cycle that can plausibly account for δ18O amplitudes and layer counts. High-resolution stable isotope records show 3.5‰ δ13C decrease over 13 couplets defining the CIE onset, which requires a large, instantaneous release of 13C-depleted carbon. During the CIE, a clear δ13C gradient developed on the shelf with the largest excursions in shallowest waters, indicating atmospheric δ13C decreased by ∼20‰. Our observations and revised release rate are consistent with an atmospheric perturbation of 3,000-gigatons of carbon (GtC)., 110(40):15908–15913, October, 2013. 00041
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex National Academy of Sciences
@article{wright_evidence_2013,
title = {Evidence for a rapid release of carbon at the {Paleocene}-{Eocene} thermal maximum},
volume = {110},
issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/110/40/15908},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1309188110},
abstract = {National Academy of Sciences},
language = {en},
number = {40},
urldate = {2017-02-09},
journal = {The Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) and associated carbon isotope excursion (CIE) are often touted as the best geologic analog for the current anthropogenic rise in pCO2. However, a causal mechanism for the PETM CIE remains unidentified because of large uncertainties in the duration of the CIE’s onset. Here, we report on a sequence of rhythmic sedimentary couplets comprising the Paleocene/Eocene Marlboro Clay (Salisbury Embayment). These couplets have corresponding δ18O cycles that imply a climatic origin. Seasonal insolation is the only regular climate cycle that can plausibly account for δ18O amplitudes and layer counts. High-resolution stable isotope records show 3.5‰ δ13C decrease over 13 couplets defining the CIE onset, which requires a large, instantaneous release of 13C-depleted carbon. During the CIE, a clear δ13C gradient developed on the shelf with the largest excursions in shallowest waters, indicating atmospheric δ13C decreased by ∼20‰. Our observations and revised release rate are consistent with an atmospheric perturbation of 3,000-gigatons of carbon (GtC).},
author = {Wright, James D. and Schaller, Morgan F.},
month = oct,
year = {2013},
pmid = {24043840},
note = {00041 },
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
pages = {15908--15913},
file = {Wright and Schaller - 2013 - Evidence for a rapid release of carbon at the Pale.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\3ZII7SEX\\Wright and Schaller - 2013 - Evidence for a rapid release of carbon at the Pale.pdf:application/pdf}
}Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience. Schellnhuber, H. J., Hare, B., Serdeczny, O., Schaeffer, M., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Schwan, S., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Vieweg, M., Piontek, F., Donner, R., Runge, J., Rehfeld, K., Rogelj, J., Perette, M., Menon, A., Schleussner, C. F., Bondeau, A., Svirejeva-Hopkins, A., Schewe, J., Frieler, K., Warszawski, L., & Rocha, M. Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience., 2013. 00036
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations....
@article{schellnhuber_turn_2013,
title = {Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience},
shorttitle = {Turn down the heat},
url = {https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20133338312},
abstract = {This report focuses on the risks of climate change to development in Sub-Saharan Africa, South East Asia and South Asia. Building on the 2012 report, Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must be Avoided, this new scientific analysis examines the likely impacts of present day, 2°C and 4°C warming on agricultural production, water resources, and coastal vulnerability for affected populations....},
language = {English},
urldate = {2016-12-15},
journal = {Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience.},
author = {Schellnhuber, H. J. and Hare, B. and Serdeczny, O. and Schaeffer, M. and Adams, S. and Baarsch, F. and Schwan, S. and Coumou, D. and Robinson, A. and Vieweg, M. and Piontek, F. and Donner, R. and Runge, J. and Rehfeld, K. and Rogelj, J. and Perette, M. and Menon, A. and Schleussner, C. F. and Bondeau, A. and Svirejeva-Hopkins, A. and Schewe, J. and Frieler, K. and Warszawski, L. and Rocha, M.},
year = {2013},
note = {00036},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
file = {Schellnhuber et al. - 2013 - Turn down the heat climate extremes, regional imp.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\MCC2785C\\Schellnhuber et al. - 2013 - Turn down the heat climate extremes, regional imp.pdf:application/pdf}
}Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon dioxide removal. Smith, L. J. & Torn, M. S. Climatic Change, 118:89–103, 2013. 00027
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Terrestrial biological atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS), afforestation/reforestation, and forest and soil management is a family of proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, but there has been no systematic analysis of the potential ecological limits to and environmental impacts of implementation at the scale relevant to climate change mitigation. In this analysis, we identified site-specific aspects of land,water, nutrients, and habitat that will affect local project-scale carbon sequestration and ecological impacts. Using this framework, we estimated global-scale land and resource requirements for BCDR, implemented at a rate of 1 Pg C y−1.Weestimatethatremoving1PgCy−1via tropicalafforestation would require at least 7×10 6 ha y−1of land, 0.09 Tg y−1of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y−1of phosphorous, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50 %. Switchgrass BECS would require at least 2×10 8 ha of land (20 times U.S. area currently under bioethanol production) and 20 Tg y−1 of nitrogen (20 % of global fertilizer nitrogen production),consuming 4×10 12m3y−1of water. While BCDR promises some direct (climate) and ancillary (restoration, habitat protection) benefits, Pg C-scale implementation may be constrained by ecological factors, and may compromise the ultimate goals of climate change mitigation.
@article{smith_ecological_2013,
title = {Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon dioxide removal},
volume = {118},
url = {http://stoppingclimatechange.com/Springer%2007%20-%20Limits%20to%20CO2%20Removal.pdf},
abstract = {Terrestrial biological atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS), afforestation/reforestation, and forest and soil management is a family of proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, but there has been no systematic analysis of the potential ecological limits to and environmental impacts of implementation at the scale relevant to climate change mitigation. In this analysis, we identified site-specific aspects of land,water, nutrients, and habitat that will affect local project-scale carbon sequestration and ecological impacts. Using this framework, we estimated global-scale land and resource requirements for BCDR, implemented at a rate of 1 Pg C y−1.Weestimatethatremoving1PgCy−1via tropicalafforestation would require at least 7×10 6 ha y−1of land, 0.09 Tg y−1of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y−1of phosphorous, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50 \%. Switchgrass BECS would require at least 2×10 8 ha of land (20 times U.S. area currently under bioethanol production) and 20 Tg y−1 of nitrogen (20 \% of global fertilizer nitrogen production),consuming 4×10 12m3y−1of water. While BCDR promises some direct (climate) and ancillary (restoration, habitat protection) benefits, Pg C-scale implementation may be constrained by ecological factors, and may compromise the ultimate goals of climate change mitigation.},
urldate = {2016-12-08},
journal = {Climatic Change},
author = {Smith, Lydia J. and Torn, Margaret S.},
year = {2013},
note = {00027},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
pages = {89--103},
file = {Smith and Torn - 2013 - Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\8A96FANN\\Smith and Torn - 2013 - Ecological limits to terrestrial biological carbon.pdf:application/pdf}
}2012 (2)
Primary biological aerosol particles in the atmosphere: a review. Després, V., R., Alex Huffman, J., Burrows, S., M., Hoose, C., Safatov, A., S., Buryak, G., Fröhlich-Nowoisky, J., Elbert, W., Andreae, M., O., Pöschl, U., & Jaenicke, R. Tellus B, 64(12):55128, 2, 2012.
Paper Website bibtex
Paper Website bibtex @article{
title = {Primary biological aerosol particles in the atmosphere: a review},
type = {article},
year = {2012},
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pages = {55128},
volume = {64},
websites = {http://www.tellusb.net/index.php/tellusb/article/view/15598},
month = {2},
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author = {Després, Viviane R. and Alex Huffman, J. and Burrows, Susannah M. and Hoose, Corinna and Safatov, Aleksandr S. and Buryak, Galina and Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Janine and Elbert, Wolfgang and Andreae, Meinrat O. and Pöschl, Ulrich and Jaenicke, Ruprecht},
journal = {Tellus B},
number = {12}
}Thermal Desorption Comprehensive Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography: An Improved Instrument for In-Situ Speciated Measurements of Organic Aerosols. Worton, D., R., Kreisberg, N., M., Isaacman, G., Teng, A., P., McNeish, C., Gorecki, T., Hering, S., V., & Goldstein, A., H. Aerosol Science and Technology, 46(4):380-393, 2012.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex The organic fraction is a major constituent of fine atmospheric particulate matter, though its chemical composition is complex and not well understood. This complexity presents an extreme analytical challenge and is well suited to analysis by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC x GC). This has recently been coupled to a thermal desorption aerosol gas (TAG) chromatograph instrument to provide improved in-situ, hourly measurement of speciated organic compounds in atmospheric aerosols (2D-TAG). The original 2D-TAG instrument utilized a flame ionization detector, dual-stage modulator, and a second-dimension column that proved to be thermally unstable under optimal analysis conditions, which limited compound identification, instrument robustness, and time resolution. In this paper, we address these shortcomings by demonstrating the successful integration of a time-of-flight mass spectrometer (TOFMS), development of a simplified hybrid thermo-pneumatic modulator, and incorporation of a more thermally stable secondary column. These improvements resulted in an instrument capable of providing detailed speciated information of organic tracer compounds in atmospheric aerosols in near real time.
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title = {Thermal Desorption Comprehensive Two-Dimensional Gas Chromatography: An Improved Instrument for In-Situ Speciated Measurements of Organic Aerosols},
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year = {2012},
identifiers = {[object Object]},
keywords = {airborne particulate matter,atmosphere,climate,column,cryogenic modulation,flight mass-spectrometry,gcxgc,interface,separations,x gc},
pages = {380-393},
volume = {46},
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abstract = {The organic fraction is a major constituent of fine atmospheric particulate matter, though its chemical composition is complex and not well understood. This complexity presents an extreme analytical challenge and is well suited to analysis by comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC x GC). This has recently been coupled to a thermal desorption aerosol gas (TAG) chromatograph instrument to provide improved in-situ, hourly measurement of speciated organic compounds in atmospheric aerosols (2D-TAG). The original 2D-TAG instrument utilized a flame ionization detector, dual-stage modulator, and a second-dimension column that proved to be thermally unstable under optimal analysis conditions, which limited compound identification, instrument robustness, and time resolution. In this paper, we address these shortcomings by demonstrating the successful integration of a time-of-flight mass spectrometer (TOFMS), development of a simplified hybrid thermo-pneumatic modulator, and incorporation of a more thermally stable secondary column. These improvements resulted in an instrument capable of providing detailed speciated information of organic tracer compounds in atmospheric aerosols in near real time.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Worton, D R and Kreisberg, N M and Isaacman, G and Teng, A P and McNeish, C and Gorecki, T and Hering, S V and Goldstein, A H},
journal = {Aerosol Science and Technology},
number = {4}
}2011 (4)
Restoration relevance of recent National Fire Plan treatments in forests of the western United States. Schoennagel, T. & Nelson, C. R Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 9(5):271–277, 2011.
bibtex
bibtex
@article{schoennagel_restoration_2011,
title = {Restoration relevance of recent {National} {Fire} {Plan} treatments in forests of the western {United} {States}},
volume = {9},
issn = {1540-9309},
number = {5},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment},
author = {Schoennagel, Tania and Nelson, Cara R},
year = {2011},
keywords = {USA, climate, face, fuels, regimes, severity, vegetation, wildland-urban interface},
pages = {271--277},
}Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world. Smith, M. S., Horrocks, L., Harvey, A., & Hamilton, C. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1934):196–216, January, 2011.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.
@article{smith_rethinking_2011,
title = {Rethinking adaptation for a 4°{C} world},
volume = {369},
copyright = {This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.},
issn = {1364-503X, 1471-2962},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/196},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2010.0277},
abstract = {With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.},
language = {en},
number = {1934},
urldate = {2015-04-17},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
author = {Smith, Mark Stafford and Horrocks, Lisa and Harvey, Alex and Hamilton, Clive},
month = jan,
year = {2011},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, 4°C-and-beyond},
pages = {196--216},
file = {Smith et al. - 2011 - Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\CSJAVFDZ\\Smith et al. - 2011 - Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.pdf:application/pdf}
}Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action. Costello, A., Maslin, M., Montgomery, H., Johnson, A. M., & Ekins, P. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1942):1866–1882, May, 2011. 00045
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change—promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late.
@article{costello_global_2011,
title = {Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action},
volume = {369},
copyright = {This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society},
issn = {1364-503X, 1471-2962},
shorttitle = {Global health and climate change},
url = {http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1942/1866},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2011.0007},
abstract = {The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change—promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late.},
language = {en},
number = {1942},
urldate = {2016-12-13},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences},
author = {Costello, Anthony and Maslin, Mark and Montgomery, Hugh and Johnson, Anne M. and Ekins, Paul},
month = may,
year = {2011},
pmid = {21464077},
note = {00045 },
keywords = {collapse, climate, health-epidemics-pandemics},
pages = {1866--1882},
file = {Costello et al. - 2011 - Global health and climate change moving from deni.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\8X4F3IC4\\Costello et al. - 2011 - Global health and climate change moving from deni.pdf:application/pdf}
}Aboveground soil C inputs in the ecotone between Scots pine and Pyrenean oak in Sierra de Guadarrama. Diaz-Pines, E., Rubio, A., & Montes, F. Forest Systems, 20(3):485–495, December, 2011.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Aboveground litterfall from Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd. a semi-deciduous species), mixed Pyrenean oak-pine and pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest stands was surveyed in two sites in a Mediterranean mountain area during a period of 36 and 29 months, respectively. Separation in different litterfall fractions was performed, and C content of each fraction was measured to calculate the C flux to the soil due to litterfall. Our results showed that litterfall input was higher in pine stands than in Pyrenean oak stands (1.8-2.4 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) at pine plots and 0.9-1.4 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) at oak plots) and mixed plots showed intermediate values. Needles or leaves contributed about 50% to total litterfall, underpinning the importance of the rest of materials in the soil C input. The seasonal pattern showed a maximum in Pyrenean oak stands in autumn-early winter, while the pine stands had the maximum in summer, which is in consonance with the physiology of fall of broadleaves and coniferous trees in these latitudes, but clearly differs from needle-shed in Central and Northern Europe. A dry-spring year corresponded to a lower leaf fall during the following autumn, and leaf abscission came some weeks earlier than a year with a rainy spring.
@article{diaz-pines_aboveground_2011,
title = {Aboveground soil {C} inputs in the ecotone between {Scots} pine and {Pyrenean} oak in {Sierra} de {Guadarrama}},
volume = {20},
issn = {2171-5068},
doi = {10/fzx236},
abstract = {Aboveground litterfall from Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica Willd. a semi-deciduous species), mixed Pyrenean oak-pine and pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest stands was surveyed in two sites in a Mediterranean mountain area during a period of 36 and 29 months, respectively. Separation in different litterfall fractions was performed, and C content of each fraction was measured to calculate the C flux to the soil due to litterfall. Our results showed that litterfall input was higher in pine stands than in Pyrenean oak stands (1.8-2.4 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) at pine plots and 0.9-1.4 Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) at oak plots) and mixed plots showed intermediate values. Needles or leaves contributed about 50\% to total litterfall, underpinning the importance of the rest of materials in the soil C input. The seasonal pattern showed a maximum in Pyrenean oak stands in autumn-early winter, while the pine stands had the maximum in summer, which is in consonance with the physiology of fall of broadleaves and coniferous trees in these latitudes, but clearly differs from needle-shed in Central and Northern Europe. A dry-spring year corresponded to a lower leaf fall during the following autumn, and leaf abscission came some weeks earlier than a year with a rainy spring.},
language = {English},
number = {3},
journal = {Forest Systems},
author = {Diaz-Pines, E. and Rubio, A. and Montes, F.},
month = dec,
year = {2011},
keywords = {climate, spain, decomposition, Pinus sylvestris, Quercus pyrenaica, carbon allocation, ecotone, fall, forest ecosystems, litter production, litterfall, Mediterranean mountain, nutrient return, sylvestris l., throughfall},
pages = {485--495},
}2010 (4)
How important is organic aerosol hygroscopicity to aerosol indirect forcing?. Liu, X. & Wang, J. Environmental Research Letters, 5(4):044010, 10, 2010.
Paper Website bibtex
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author = {Liu, Xiaohong and Wang, Jian},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = {4}
}Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes. Davin, E. L. & de Noblet-Ducoudré , N. Journal of Climate, 23(1):97–112, January, 2010.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
A fully coupled land-ocean-atmosphere GCM is used to explore the biogeophysical impact of large-scale deforestation on surface climate. By analyzing the model sensitivity to global-scale replacement of forests by grassland, it is shown that the surface albedo increase owing to deforestation has a cooling effect of -1.36 K globally. On the other hand, forest removal decreases evapotranspiration efficiency and decreases surface roughness, both leading to a global surface warming of 0.24 and 0.29 K, respectively. The net biogeophysical impact of deforestation results from the competition between these effects. Globally, the albedo effect is dominant because of its wider-scale impact, and the net biogeophysical impact of deforestation is thus a cooling of -1 K. Over land, the balance between the different processes varies with latitude. In temperate and boreal zones of the Northern Hemisphere the albedo effect is stronger and deforestation thus induces a cooling. Conversely, in the tropics the net impact of deforestation is a warming, because evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness provide the dominant influence. The authors also explore the importance of the ocean coupling in shaping the climate response to deforestation. First, the temperature over ocean responds to the land cover perturbation. Second, even the temperature change over land is greatly affected by the ocean coupling. By assuming fixed oceanic conditions, the net effect of deforestation, averaged over all land areas, is a warming, whereas taking into account the coupling with the ocean leads, on the contrary, to a net land cooling. Furthermore, it is shown that the main parameter involved in the coupling with the ocean is surface albedo. Indeed, a change in albedo modifies temperature and humidity in the whole troposphere, thus enabling the initially land-confined perturbation to be transferred to the ocean. Finally, the radiative forcing framework is discussed in the context of land cover change impact on climate. The experiments herein illustrate that deforestation triggers two opposite types of forcingmechanisms-radiative forcing (owing to surface albedo change) and nonradiative forcing (owing to change in evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness)-that exhibit a similar magnitude globally. However, when applying the radiative forcing concept, nonradiative processes are ignored, which may lead to a misrepresentation of land cover change impact on climate. [Excerpt: Conclusions] In this study we addressed the biogeophysical impact of deforestation with a fully coupled land-ocean-atmosphere GCM. We contrasted the climate of a maximally forested earth with the climate resulting from the replacement of forest by grass. Our experimental design allows us to separate the respective roles of surface albedo, evapotranspiration efficiency, and surface roughness in shaping the net biogeophysical effect of deforestation. Whereas our main focus here was on the energy budget and surface temperature, investigations of the response of the hydrological cycle will be conducted in the future. [\n] Increase in surface albedo owing to complete deforestation has a cooling effect on climate (-1.36 K globally). On the other hand, forest removal decreases evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness, which warms surface climate (respectively, by 0.24 and 0.29 K globally). The magnitude of these different effects varies regionally. The cooling effect due to albedo change is stronger at high latitudes and affects both land and ocean. Conversely, the warming effect from change in evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness is stronger at low latitudes and does not affect the oceans. [\n] The net biogeophysical impact of deforestation results from the competition between these effects. Globally, the albedo effect is dominant and the net biogeophysical impact of deforestation is a cooling of -1 K. This is mainly because the albedo effect spreads over the ocean, whereas the other effects do not. On continents, however, the balance between the different processes changes with latitude. In temperate and boreal zones of the Northern Hemisphere the albedo effect is stronger and deforestation thus induces a cooling, as has already been noticed in previous studies (e.g., Betts 2001; Bounoua et al. 2002). Conversely, in the tropics the net impact of deforestation is a warming because evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness provide the dominant influence in these regions. [\n] This study also highlights the importance of the coupling with the ocean. Up to now, most of our knowledge concerning the impact of land cover change on climate comes from atmospheric models not coupled to an ocean model but instead assuming fixed oceanic conditions (e.g., Dickinson and Henderson-Sellers 1988; Nobre et al. 1991; Bonan 1997; Lean and Rowntree 1997; Chase et al. 2000; Gedney and Valdes 2000; Betts 2001; Bounoua et al. 2002; DeFries et al. 2002; Voldoire 2006). Implicitly, this assumption was justified be the fact that the perturbation owing to land cover change is applied to land and not to the ocean. However, our experiments show that taking into account the coupling with the ocean greatly affect the simulated response to deforestation. First, we noted that the ocean surface responds to deforestation by a cooling. Second, even the temperature change over land is strongly affected by the ocean coupling. By not taking into account the coupling with the ocean we would have concluded that the net effect of deforestation, averaged over all land areas, is a warming. By accounting for the ocean coupling, this net effect is of opposite sign. We also further demonstrated that the main parameter involved in the coupling with the ocean is surface albedo. This is because change in albedo modifies temperature and humidity in the whole troposphere, thus enabling the initially land-confined perturbation to be transferred to the ocean. [\n] Finally, the results presented here give some insight concerning the nature of the forcing owing to land cover change. Supporting earlier hypothesis (Pielke et al. 2002; NRC 2005; Davin et al. 2007), we showed that deforestation involves two opposite types of forcing mechanisms: a radiative forcing (owing to surface albedo change) and a nonradiative forcing (owing to change in evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness). We quantified the relative importance of these opposite forcings in the context of our complete deforestation experiments and found that, globally, they are of similar magnitude. This result highlights the limitation of the classical radiative forcing framework in which equilibrium temperature change is viewed as a response to a radiative forcing perturbation. Land cover change can also affect equilibrium temperature through nonradiative processes. Historical deforestation took place mostly in temperate regions, and therefore radiative forcing was roughly acceptable in quantifying its effect. Future deforestation, however, is expected to take place in the tropics where nonradiative effects are dominant. Hence, using the radiative forcing framework in the context of future land cover change may lead to a misrepresentation of its impact on climate.
@article{davinClimaticImpactGlobalscale2010,
title = {Climatic Impact of Global-Scale Deforestation: Radiative versus Nonradiative Processes},
author = {Davin, Edouard L. and {de Noblet-Ducoudr{\'e}}, Nathalie},
year = {2010},
month = jan,
volume = {23},
pages = {97--112},
issn = {1520-0442},
doi = {10.1175/2009jcli3102.1},
abstract = {A fully coupled land-ocean-atmosphere GCM is used to explore the biogeophysical impact of large-scale deforestation on surface climate. By analyzing the model sensitivity to global-scale replacement of forests by grassland, it is shown that the surface albedo increase owing to deforestation has a cooling effect of -1.36 K globally. On the other hand, forest removal decreases evapotranspiration efficiency and decreases surface roughness, both leading to a global surface warming of 0.24 and 0.29 K, respectively. The net biogeophysical impact of deforestation results from the competition between these effects. Globally, the albedo effect is dominant because of its wider-scale impact, and the net biogeophysical impact of deforestation is thus a cooling of -1 K. Over land, the balance between the different processes varies with latitude. In temperate and boreal zones of the Northern Hemisphere the albedo effect is stronger and deforestation thus induces a cooling. Conversely, in the tropics the net impact of deforestation is a warming, because evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness provide the dominant influence. The authors also explore the importance of the ocean coupling in shaping the climate response to deforestation. First, the temperature over ocean responds to the land cover perturbation. Second, even the temperature change over land is greatly affected by the ocean coupling. By assuming fixed oceanic conditions, the net effect of deforestation, averaged over all land areas, is a warming, whereas taking into account the coupling with the ocean leads, on the contrary, to a net land cooling. Furthermore, it is shown that the main parameter involved in the coupling with the ocean is surface albedo. Indeed, a change in albedo modifies temperature and humidity in the whole troposphere, thus enabling the initially land-confined perturbation to be transferred to the ocean. Finally, the radiative forcing framework is discussed in the context of land cover change impact on climate. The experiments herein illustrate that deforestation triggers two opposite types of forcingmechanisms-radiative forcing (owing to surface albedo change) and nonradiative forcing (owing to change in evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness)-that exhibit a similar magnitude globally. However, when applying the radiative forcing concept, nonradiative processes are ignored, which may lead to a misrepresentation of land cover change impact on climate.
[Excerpt: Conclusions]
In this study we addressed the biogeophysical impact of deforestation with a fully coupled land-ocean-atmosphere GCM. We contrasted the climate of a maximally forested earth with the climate resulting from the replacement of forest by grass. Our experimental design allows us to separate the respective roles of surface albedo, evapotranspiration efficiency, and surface roughness in shaping the net biogeophysical effect of deforestation. Whereas our main focus here was on the energy budget and surface temperature, investigations of the response of the hydrological cycle will be conducted in the future.
[\textbackslash n] Increase in surface albedo owing to complete deforestation has a cooling effect on climate (-1.36 K globally). On the other hand, forest removal decreases evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness, which warms surface climate (respectively, by 0.24 and 0.29 K globally). The magnitude of these different effects varies regionally. The cooling effect due to albedo change is stronger at high latitudes and affects both land and ocean. Conversely, the warming effect from change in evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness is stronger at low latitudes and does not affect the oceans.
[\textbackslash n] The net biogeophysical impact of deforestation results from the competition between these effects. Globally, the albedo effect is dominant and the net biogeophysical impact of deforestation is a cooling of -1 K. This is mainly because the albedo effect spreads over the ocean, whereas the other effects do not. On continents, however, the balance between the different processes changes with latitude. In temperate and boreal zones of the Northern Hemisphere the albedo effect is stronger and deforestation thus induces a cooling, as has already been noticed in previous studies (e.g., Betts 2001; Bounoua et al. 2002). Conversely, in the tropics the net impact of deforestation is a warming because evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness provide the dominant influence in these regions.
[\textbackslash n] This study also highlights the importance of the coupling with the ocean. Up to now, most of our knowledge concerning the impact of land cover change on climate comes from atmospheric models not coupled to an ocean model but instead assuming fixed oceanic conditions (e.g., Dickinson and Henderson-Sellers 1988; Nobre et al. 1991; Bonan 1997; Lean and Rowntree 1997; Chase et al. 2000; Gedney and Valdes 2000; Betts 2001; Bounoua et al. 2002; DeFries et al. 2002; Voldoire 2006). Implicitly, this assumption was justified be the fact that the perturbation owing to land cover change is applied to land and not to the ocean. However, our experiments show that taking into account the coupling with the ocean greatly affect the simulated response to deforestation. First, we noted that the ocean surface responds to deforestation by a cooling. Second, even the temperature change over land is strongly affected by the ocean coupling. By not taking into account the coupling with the ocean we would have concluded that the net effect of deforestation, averaged over all land areas, is a warming. By accounting for the ocean coupling, this net effect is of opposite sign. We also further demonstrated that the main parameter involved in the coupling with the ocean is surface albedo. This is because change in albedo modifies temperature and humidity in the whole troposphere, thus enabling the initially land-confined perturbation to be transferred to the ocean.
[\textbackslash n] Finally, the results presented here give some insight concerning the nature of the forcing owing to land cover change. Supporting earlier hypothesis (Pielke et al. 2002; NRC 2005; Davin et al. 2007), we showed that deforestation involves two opposite types of forcing mechanisms: a radiative forcing (owing to surface albedo change) and a nonradiative forcing (owing to change in evapotranspiration efficiency and surface roughness). We quantified the relative importance of these opposite forcings in the context of our complete deforestation experiments and found that, globally, they are of similar magnitude. This result highlights the limitation of the classical radiative forcing framework in which equilibrium temperature change is viewed as a response to a radiative forcing perturbation. Land cover change can also affect equilibrium temperature through nonradiative processes. Historical deforestation took place mostly in temperate regions, and therefore radiative forcing was roughly acceptable in quantifying its effect. Future deforestation, however, is expected to take place in the tropics where nonradiative effects are dominant. Hence, using the radiative forcing framework in the context of future land cover change may lead to a misrepresentation of its impact on climate.},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-6519442,~to-add-doi-URL,albedo,boreal-forests,climate,complexity,deforestation,evapotranspiration,feedback,forest-resources,global-climate-models,humidity,land-cover,large-vs-wide-scale,oceans,off-site-effects,surface-roughness,temperate-forests,temperature,trade-offs,tropical-forests,wide-scale},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-6519442},
number = {1}
}High resolution niche models of malaria vectors in northern Tanzania: a new capacity to predict malaria risk?. Kulkarni, M. A., Desrochers, R. E., & Kerr, J. T. PLoS ONE, 5(2):e9396, 2010.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission rates in Africa can vary dramatically over the space of a few kilometres. This spatial heterogeneity reflects variation in vector mosquito habitat and presents an important obstacle to the efficient allocation of malaria control resources. Malaria control is further complicated by combinations of vector species that respond differently to control interventions. Recent modelling innovations make it possible to predict vector distributions and extrapolate malaria risk continentally, but these risk mapping efforts have not yet bridged the spatial gap to guide on-the-ground control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used Maximum Entropy with purpose-built, high resolution land cover data and other environmental factors to model the spatial distributions of the three dominant malaria vector species in a 94,000 km(2) region of east Africa. Remotely sensed land cover was necessary in each vector's niche model. Seasonality of precipitation and maximum annual temperature also contributed to niche models for Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. (AUC 0.989 and 0.991, respectively), but cold season precipitation and elevation were important for An. gambiae s.s. (AUC 0.997). Although these niche models appear highly accurate, the critical test is whether they improve predictions of malaria prevalence in human populations. Vector habitat within 1.5 km of community-based malaria prevalence measurements interacts with elevation to substantially improve predictions of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in children. The inclusion of the mechanistic link between malaria prevalence and vector habitat greatly improves the precision and accuracy of prevalence predictions (r(2) = 0.83 including vector habitat, or r(2) = 0.50 without vector habitat). Predictions including vector habitat are unbiased (observations vs. model predictions of prevalence: slope = 1.02). Using this model, we generate a high resolution map of predicted malaria prevalence throughout the study region. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The interaction between mosquito niche space and microclimate along elevational gradients indicates worrisome potential for climate and land use changes to exacerbate malaria resurgence in the east African highlands. Nevertheless, it is possible to direct interventions precisely to ameliorate potential impacts.
@article{kulkarni_high_2010,
title = {High resolution niche models of malaria vectors in northern {Tanzania}: a new capacity to predict malaria risk?},
volume = {5},
issn = {1932-6203 (Electronic) 1932-6203 (Linking)},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20195366},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0009396},
abstract = {BACKGROUND: Malaria transmission rates in Africa can vary dramatically over the space of a few kilometres. This spatial heterogeneity reflects variation in vector mosquito habitat and presents an important obstacle to the efficient allocation of malaria control resources. Malaria control is further complicated by combinations of vector species that respond differently to control interventions. Recent modelling innovations make it possible to predict vector distributions and extrapolate malaria risk continentally, but these risk mapping efforts have not yet bridged the spatial gap to guide on-the-ground control efforts. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used Maximum Entropy with purpose-built, high resolution land cover data and other environmental factors to model the spatial distributions of the three dominant malaria vector species in a 94,000 km(2) region of east Africa. Remotely sensed land cover was necessary in each vector's niche model. Seasonality of precipitation and maximum annual temperature also contributed to niche models for Anopheles arabiensis and An. funestus s.l. (AUC 0.989 and 0.991, respectively), but cold season precipitation and elevation were important for An. gambiae s.s. (AUC 0.997). Although these niche models appear highly accurate, the critical test is whether they improve predictions of malaria prevalence in human populations. Vector habitat within 1.5 km of community-based malaria prevalence measurements interacts with elevation to substantially improve predictions of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in children. The inclusion of the mechanistic link between malaria prevalence and vector habitat greatly improves the precision and accuracy of prevalence predictions (r(2) = 0.83 including vector habitat, or r(2) = 0.50 without vector habitat). Predictions including vector habitat are unbiased (observations vs. model predictions of prevalence: slope = 1.02). Using this model, we generate a high resolution map of predicted malaria prevalence throughout the study region. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The interaction between mosquito niche space and microclimate along elevational gradients indicates worrisome potential for climate and land use changes to exacerbate malaria resurgence in the east African highlands. Nevertheless, it is possible to direct interventions precisely to ameliorate potential impacts.},
language = {eng},
number = {2},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
author = {Kulkarni, M. A. and Desrochers, R. E. and Kerr, J. T.},
year = {2010},
keywords = {*Ecosystem, Algorithms, Animals, Anopheles gambiae/growth \& development/parasitology, Anopheles/classification/*growth \& development/parasitology, Climate, Geography, Humans, Insect Vectors/classification/*growth \& development/parasitology, Malaria, Falciparum/epidemiology/parasitology/*transmission, Models, Biological, Population Density, Population Dynamics, Prevalence, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Seasons, Species Specificity, Tanzania/epidemiology, Temperature},
pages = {e9396}
}Worldwide allele frequencies of the human apolipoprotein E gene: climate, local adaptations, and evolutionary history. Eisenberg, D. T A, Kuzawa, C. W, & Hayes, M G. American journal of physical anthropology, 143(1):100–11, September, 2010.
Paper doi bibtex
Paper doi bibtex 2009 (9)
Seasonal weather effects on the common eider, a subarctic capital breeder, in Iceland over 55 years. Jónsson, J., Gardarsson, a., Gill, J., Petersen, a., & Gunnarsson, T. Climate Research, 38:237-248, 4, 2009.
Website bibtex
Website bibtex @article{
title = {Seasonal weather effects on the common eider, a subarctic capital breeder, in Iceland over 55 years},
type = {article},
year = {2009},
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keywords = {arctic,breeding,climate,phenology,temperature,waterfowl,winter harshness},
pages = {237-248},
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journal = {Climate Research}
}Fire in the Earth System. Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J. K., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Carlson, J. M., Cochrane, M. A., D'Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R. S., Doyle, J. C., Harrison, S. P., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., Kull, C. A., Marston, J. B., Moritz, M. A., Prentice, I. C., Roos, C. I., Scott, A. C., Swetnam, T. W., van der Werf, G. R., & Pyne, S. J. Science, 324(5926):481–484, April, 2009.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.
@article{bowman_fire_2009,
title = {Fire in the {Earth} {System}},
volume = {324},
issn = {0036-8075},
url = {://000265411200037},
doi = {10.1126/science.1163886},
abstract = {Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that appears in the geological record soon after the appearance of terrestrial plants. Fire influences global ecosystem patterns and processes, including vegetation distribution and structure, the carbon cycle, and climate. Although humans and fire have always coexisted, our capacity to manage fire remains imperfect and may become more difficult in the future as climate change alters fire regimes. This risk is difficult to assess, however, because fires are still poorly represented in global models. Here, we discuss some of the most important issues involved in developing a better understanding of the role of fire in the Earth system.},
language = {English},
number = {5926},
journal = {Science},
author = {Bowman, D. M. J. S. and Balch, J. K. and Artaxo, P. and Bond, W. J. and Carlson, J. M. and Cochrane, M. A. and D'Antonio, C. M. and DeFries, R. S. and Doyle, J. C. and Harrison, S. P. and Johnston, F. H. and Keeley, J. E. and Krawchuk, M. A. and Kull, C. A. and Marston, J. B. and Moritz, M. A. and Prentice, I. C. and Roos, C. I. and Scott, A. C. and Swetnam, T. W. and van der Werf, G. R. and Pyne, S. J.},
month = apr,
year = {2009},
keywords = {atmospheric oxygen, carbon, climate, ecosystems, emissions, evolution, expansion, forest-fires, history, synchrony},
pages = {481--484},
}Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements. Slingo, J., Bates, K., Nikiforakis, N., Piggott, M., Roberts, M. J., Shaffrey, L. C., Stevens, I., Vidale, Luigi, P., & Weller, H. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 367(1890):815--31, March, 2009.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.
@article{ Slingo2009a,
author = {Slingo, Julia and Bates, Kevin and Nikiforakis, Nikos and Piggott,
Matthew and Roberts, Malcolm J. and Shaffrey, Len C. and Stevens,
Ian and Vidale, Pier Luigi and Weller, Hilary},
title = {{Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges
and achievements.}},
journal = {Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and
engineering sciences},
year = {2009},
volume = {367},
pages = {815--31},
number = {1890},
month = {March},
abstract = {Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency
over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements
may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel,
our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution
that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the
multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it
may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for
weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling
and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere
and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms
and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning
to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach
the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different
scales and processes that radically different methods may have to
be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale
computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to
numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes
advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other
fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system
processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate
(and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question
whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.},
doi = {10.1098/rsta.2008.0207},
file = {:Users/reinhard/Documents/articles/mendeley/Slingo et al‥ 2009. Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences.pdf:pdf},
issn = {1364-503X},
keywords = {Climate,Climatic Processes,Computer Simulation,Ecology,Ecology: methods,Ecology:
trends,Internet,Models,Research,Research: trends,Science,Science:
methods,Science: trends,Theoretical},
pmid = {19087925},
url = {http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19087925}
}Latitudinal trends in Spartina alterniflora productivity and the response of coastal marshes to global change. Kirwan, M. L., Guntenspergen, G., & Morris, J. Global Change Biology, 2009.
bibtex
bibtex
@article{kirwan_latitudinal_2009,
title = {Latitudinal trends in {Spartina} alterniflora productivity and the response of coastal marshes to global change.},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
author = {Kirwan, M. L. and Guntenspergen, G.R. and Morris, J.T.},
year = {2009},
keywords = {disturbance, PIE, PIE LTER, sea level, primary production, wetland, climate, biomass, organic matter, temperature, warming}
}GHG Emission Reductions with Industrial Biotechnology: Assessing the Opportunities . Buttazzoni, M. 2009.
bibtex
bibtex
@misc{
title = {GHG Emission Reductions with Industrial Biotechnology: Assessing the Opportunities },
type = {misc},
year = {2009},
keywords = {Biofuel, industrial, climate, biobased, green, car},
websites = {http://assets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_biotech_technical_report.pdf},
publisher = {WWF},
city = {Palmetto FL},
id = {59904f5e-e10d-3331-8d71-b2e459b12e49},
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source_type = {Electronic Article},
bibtype = {misc},
author = {Buttazzoni, Marco}
}Absence of Ross River virus amongst Common brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) from metropolitan Sydney, Australia. Hill, N. J., Power, M. L., & Deane, E. M. European Journal of Wildlife Research, 55(3):313–316, June, 2009.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-transmitted Alphavirus emerging in urban centres throughout Australia. The Common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), a native marsupial that has successfully adapted to human settlement, has been implicated as a maintenance reservoir for RRV. In the present study, RRV exposure was assessed amongst 72 urban-adapted possums from Northern Sydney and ten possums from a woodland area, remote from urbanisation. Serological screening was performed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect RRV antibodies in possum sera. Findings indicated that both possum populations from urban and woodland habitats were negative for the presence of RRV antibodies. Lack of exposure to RRV highlights that the host status of possums is contingent upon factors other than their abundance and proximity to human settlement. In view of the potential for climate change to favour transmission of mosquito-borne disease in Australia, identification of wildlife populations entirely absent of RRV may prove useful for monitoring the predicted spread of the virus.
@article{hill_absence_2009,
title = {Absence of {Ross} {River} virus amongst {Common} brushtail possums ({Trichosurus} vulpecula) from metropolitan {Sydney}, {Australia}},
volume = {55},
copyright = {All rights reserved},
issn = {1612-4642},
url = {://WOS:000266476800016},
doi = {10.1007/s10344-008-0238-z},
abstract = {Ross River virus (RRV) is a mosquito-transmitted Alphavirus emerging in urban centres throughout Australia. The Common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), a native marsupial that has successfully adapted to human settlement, has been implicated as a maintenance reservoir for RRV. In the present study, RRV exposure was assessed amongst 72 urban-adapted possums from Northern Sydney and ten possums from a woodland area, remote from urbanisation. Serological screening was performed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect RRV antibodies in possum sera. Findings indicated that both possum populations from urban and woodland habitats were negative for the presence of RRV antibodies. Lack of exposure to RRV highlights that the host status of possums is contingent upon factors other than their abundance and proximity to human settlement. In view of the potential for climate change to favour transmission of mosquito-borne disease in Australia, identification of wildlife populations entirely absent of RRV may prove useful for monitoring the predicted spread of the virus.},
language = {English},
number = {3},
journal = {European Journal of Wildlife Research},
author = {Hill, N. J. and Power, M. L. and Deane, E. M.},
month = jun,
year = {2009},
keywords = {Arbovirus, Environmental Sciences \& Ecology, Mosquito, Serology, Urban wildlife, Zoology, arboviruses, climate, disease, epidemics, infection, mosquitos, new-south-wales, outbreaks, queensland},
pages = {313--316},
}Climate Change and Security. , C. C. & Committee, S. Technical Report 14, Advisory Council on International Affairs, January, 2009. 00000
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
This report on climate change and security by the Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV) has been drafted for the Dutch Minister of Defence. On 10 July 2008 the Minister requested a report on ‘the likely implications of climate change for the international security situation over the next twenty years’ (see Annexe I for the request for advice). The request for advice, which was made in the context of the defence policy review on the future of the armed forces1 , complements the request for advice from the Dutch Minister for Development Cooperation on the subject of ‘climate, energy and poverty reduction’ of 15 March 2008.
@techreport{climate_change_and_security_committee_climate_2009,
title = {Climate {Change} and {Security}},
abstract = {This report on climate change and security by the Advisory Council on International Affairs (AIV) has been drafted for the Dutch Minister of Defence. On 10 July 2008 the Minister requested a report on ‘the likely implications of climate change for the international security situation over the next twenty years’ (see Annexe I for the request for advice). The request for advice, which was made in the context of the defence policy review on the future of the armed forces1 , complements the request for advice from the Dutch Minister for Development Cooperation on the subject of ‘climate, energy and poverty reduction’ of 15 March 2008.},
number = {14},
institution = {Advisory Council on International Affairs},
author = {Climate Change {and} Security Committee},
month = jan,
year = {2009},
note = {00000},
keywords = {violence-conflicts-wars, collapse, climate},
file = {Climate Change and Security Committee - 2009 - Climate Change and Security.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\3I6XPHFP\\Climate Change and Security Committee - 2009 - Climate Change and Security.pdf:application/pdf}
}Challenges for the operational detection of mountain pine beetle green attack with remote sensing. Wulder, M. A., White, J. C., Carroll, A. L., & Coops, N. C. Forestry Chronicle, 85(1):32–38, January, 2009.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Mountain pine beetle infestations are spatially correlated; current (green) attack is often located near previous (red) attack. This spatial correlation between the green and red attack stages enables operational survey methods, as detection of red attack trees-typically from an airborne survey such as a helicopter GPS survey or aerial photography-guides the location of subsequent ground surveys for green attack trees. Forest managers, in an attempt to understand beetle movement and infestation patterns, hope to utilize remotely sensed data to detect and map green attack trees, with the expectation that the spatial extent, accuracy, and timeliness afforded by remotely sensed data will greatly improve the efficacy of beetle treatment and control. In this communication, we present the biological, logistical, and technological factors that limit the operational utility of remotely sensed data for green attack detection and mapping. To provide context for these limitations, we identify the operational information needs associated with green attack and discuss how these requirements dictate the characteristics of any potential remotely sensed data source (e.g., spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics). Based upon our assessment, we conclude that the remote detection of green attack is not operationally viable, and is unlikely to become so unless the limiting factors we have identified are altered substantially or removed.
@article{wulder_challenges_2009,
title = {Challenges for the operational detection of mountain pine beetle green attack with remote sensing},
volume = {85},
issn = {0015-7546},
url = {://000263578000024},
abstract = {Mountain pine beetle infestations are spatially correlated; current (green) attack is often located near previous (red) attack. This spatial correlation between the green and red attack stages enables operational survey methods, as detection of red attack trees-typically from an airborne survey such as a helicopter GPS survey or aerial photography-guides the location of subsequent ground surveys for green attack trees. Forest managers, in an attempt to understand beetle movement and infestation patterns, hope to utilize remotely sensed data to detect and map green attack trees, with the expectation that the spatial extent, accuracy, and timeliness afforded by remotely sensed data will greatly improve the efficacy of beetle treatment and control. In this communication, we present the biological, logistical, and technological factors that limit the operational utility of remotely sensed data for green attack detection and mapping. To provide context for these limitations, we identify the operational information needs associated with green attack and discuss how these requirements dictate the characteristics of any potential remotely sensed data source (e.g., spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics). Based upon our assessment, we conclude that the remote detection of green attack is not operationally viable, and is unlikely to become so unless the limiting factors we have identified are altered substantially or removed.},
number = {1},
journal = {Forestry Chronicle},
author = {Wulder, M. A. and White, J. C. and Carroll, A. L. and Coops, N. C.},
month = jan,
year = {2009},
keywords = {CLIMATE, DAMAGE, FOLIAGE, LODGEPOLE PINE, PATTERNS, STRESS, green attack, high spatial, high spectral resolution, insect survey, operational, remote sensing, resolution},
pages = {32--38},
}Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle. Archer, D., Buffett, B., & Brovkin, V. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(49):20596–20601, December, 2009. 00134
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex We present a model of the global methane inventory as hydrate and bubbles below the sea floor. The model predicts the inventory of CH4 in the ocean today to be ≈1600–2,000 Pg of C. Most of the hydrate in the model is in the Pacific, in large part because lower oxygen levels enhance the preservation of organic carbon. Because the oxygen concentration today may be different from the long-term average, the sensitivity of the model to O2 is a source of uncertainty in predicting hydrate inventories. Cold water column temperatures in the high latitudes lead to buildup of hydrates in the Arctic and Antarctic at shallower depths than is possible in low latitudes. A critical bubble volume fraction threshold has been proposed as a critical threshold at which gas migrates all through the sediment column. Our model lacks many factors that lead to heterogeneity in the real hydrate reservoir in the ocean, such as preferential hydrate formation in sandy sediments and subsurface gas migration, and is therefore conservative in its prediction of releasable methane, finding only 35 Pg of C released after 3 °C of uniform warming by using a 10% critical bubble volume. If 2.5% bubble volume is taken as critical, then 940 Pg of C might escape in response to 3 °C warming. This hydrate model embedded into a global climate model predicts ≈0.4–0.5 °C additional warming from the hydrate response to fossil fuel CO2 release, initially because of methane, but persisting through the 10-kyr duration of the simulations because of the CO2 oxidation product of methane.
@article{archer_ocean_2009,
title = {Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in the global carbon cycle},
volume = {106},
issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/106/49/20596},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.0800885105},
abstract = {We present a model of the global methane inventory as hydrate and bubbles below the sea floor. The model predicts the inventory of CH4 in the ocean today to be ≈1600–2,000 Pg of C. Most of the hydrate in the model is in the Pacific, in large part because lower oxygen levels enhance the preservation of organic carbon. Because the oxygen concentration today may be different from the long-term average, the sensitivity of the model to O2 is a source of uncertainty in predicting hydrate inventories. Cold water column temperatures in the high latitudes lead to buildup of hydrates in the Arctic and Antarctic at shallower depths than is possible in low latitudes. A critical bubble volume fraction threshold has been proposed as a critical threshold at which gas migrates all through the sediment column. Our model lacks many factors that lead to heterogeneity in the real hydrate reservoir in the ocean, such as preferential hydrate formation in sandy sediments and subsurface gas migration, and is therefore conservative in its prediction of releasable methane, finding only 35 Pg of C released after 3 °C of uniform warming by using a 10\% critical bubble volume. If 2.5\% bubble volume is taken as critical, then 940 Pg of C might escape in response to 3 °C warming. This hydrate model embedded into a global climate model predicts ≈0.4–0.5 °C additional warming from the hydrate response to fossil fuel CO2 release, initially because of methane, but persisting through the 10-kyr duration of the simulations because of the CO2 oxidation product of methane.},
language = {en},
number = {49},
urldate = {2015-01-06},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
author = {Archer, David and Buffett, Bruce and Brovkin, Victor},
month = dec,
year = {2009},
pmid = {19017807},
note = {00134 },
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, oceans, early-warning-signals},
pages = {20596--20601},
file = {Archer et al. - 2009 - Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\2QXBT695\\Archer et al. - 2009 - Ocean methane hydrates as a slow tipping point in .pdf:application/pdf}
}2008 (2)
Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. George, S., S., Meko, D., M., & Evans, M., N. Quaternary Research, 70(2):158-172, 2008.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring. Crown Copyright © 2008.
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title = {Regional tree growth and inferred summer climate in the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783},
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abstract = {A network of 54 ring-width chronologies is used to estimate changes in summer climate within the Winnipeg River basin, Canada, since AD 1783. The basin drains parts of northwestern Ontario, northern Minnesota and southeastern Manitoba, and is a key area for hydroelectric power production. Most chronologies were developed from Pinus resinosa and P. strobus, with a limited number of Thuja occidentalis, Picea glauca and Pinus banksiana. The dominant pattern of regional tree growth can be recovered using only the nine longest chronologies, and is not affected by the method used to remove variability related to age or stand dynamics from individual trees. Tree growth is significantly, but weakly, correlated with both temperature (negatively) and precipitation (positively) during summer. Simulated ring-width chronologies produced by a process model of tree-ring growth exhibit similar relationships with summer climate. High and low growth across the region is associated with cool/wet and warm/dry summers, respectively; this relationship is supported by comparisons with archival records from early 19th century fur-trading posts. The tree-ring record indicates that summer droughts were more persistent in the 19th and late 18th century, but there is no evidence that drought was more extreme prior to the onset of direct monitoring. Crown Copyright © 2008.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {George, S. S. and Meko, D. M. and Evans, M. N.},
journal = {Quaternary Research},
number = {2}
}Carbon is forever. Inman, M. Nature Reports Climate Change, December, 2008. 00029
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Carbon dioxide emissions and their associated warming could linger for millennia, according to some climate scientists. Mason Inman looks at why the fallout from burning fossil fuels could last far longer than expected.
@article{inman_carbon_2008,
title = {Carbon is forever},
copyright = {© 2008 Nature Publishing Group},
issn = {false},
url = {http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html},
doi = {10.1038/climate.2008.122},
abstract = {Carbon dioxide emissions and their associated warming could linger for millennia, according to some climate scientists. Mason Inman looks at why the fallout from burning fossil fuels could last far longer than expected.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2016-12-07},
journal = {Nature Reports Climate Change},
author = {Inman, Mason},
month = dec,
year = {2008},
note = {00029},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
pages = {156--158},
file = {Inman - 2008 - Carbon is forever.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\HUS9IB4W\\Inman - 2008 - Carbon is forever.pdf:application/pdf}
}2007 (3)
Mineral dust is a sink for chlorine in the marine boundary layer. Sullivan, R., C., Guazzotti, S., A., Sodeman, D., A., Tang, Y., H., Carmichael, G., R., & Prather, K., A. Atmospheric Environment, 41(34):7166-7179, 2007.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
Dust particles affect the budgets of important traces gases by providing a surface on which heterogeneous reactions can occur. The uptake of soluble species on dust alters the physical, chemical, and optical properties and the overall ability of dust to act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. It is commonly assumed that all measured chloride in particulate filter samples is associated with sea-salt particles and any chloride in dust occurs as the result of internal mixtures of sea-salt and dust particles, formed by cloud processing. Here we show high temporal resolution data demonstrating the direct uptake of chlorine by dust via heterogeneous reaction with HCl(g). This reaction added significant amounts of chlorine to the dust particles during a major dust storm, representing 4-9% of the individual dust particle mass. Up to 65 +/- 4% of the dust particles contained chlorine due to this heterogeneous reaction during the dust front. Ignoring this process leads to an overestimation of sea-salt concentrations from bulk measurements, and an underestimation of the degree of sea-salt aging. The uptake of chloride will change the pH and hygroscopic properties of the dust and thus can influence the budgets of other reactive gases. Including this heterogeneous process in atmospheric measurements and chemical transport models will improve our ability to predict the atmosphere's composition and radiation budget with greater accuracy. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
@article{
title = {Mineral dust is a sink for chlorine in the marine boundary layer},
type = {article},
year = {2007},
keywords = {Sea-salt,aerosol,asian dust,atmosphere,california,chemical transport model,chemistry,climate,heterogeneous chemistry,mineral dust,sea-salt aerosol,single-particle analysis,storm particles,sulfate,sulfur},
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private_publication = {false},
abstract = {Dust particles affect the budgets of important traces gases by providing a surface on which heterogeneous reactions can occur. The uptake of soluble species on dust alters the physical, chemical, and optical properties and the overall ability of dust to act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. It is commonly assumed that all measured chloride in particulate filter samples is associated with sea-salt particles and any chloride in dust occurs as the result of internal mixtures of sea-salt and dust particles, formed by cloud processing. Here we show high temporal resolution data demonstrating the direct uptake of chlorine by dust via heterogeneous reaction with HCl(g). This reaction added significant amounts of chlorine to the dust particles during a major dust storm, representing 4-9% of the individual dust particle mass. Up to 65 +/- 4% of the dust particles contained chlorine due to this heterogeneous reaction during the dust front. Ignoring this process leads to an overestimation of sea-salt concentrations from bulk measurements, and an underestimation of the degree of sea-salt aging. The uptake of chloride will change the pH and hygroscopic properties of the dust and thus can influence the budgets of other reactive gases. Including this heterogeneous process in atmospheric measurements and chemical transport models will improve our ability to predict the atmosphere's composition and radiation budget with greater accuracy. (c) 2007 Published by Elsevier Ltd.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Sullivan, R. C. and Guazzotti, S A and Sodeman, D A and Tang, Y H and Carmichael, G R and Prather, Kimberly A},
journal = {Atmospheric Environment},
number = {34}
}The Stern Review's economics of climate change. Dasgupta, P. National institute economic review, 199(1):4–7, 2007. 00443
Paper bibtex
Paper bibtex @article{dasgupta_stern_2007,
title = {The {Stern} {Review}'s economics of climate change},
volume = {199},
url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0027950107077111},
number = {1},
urldate = {2017-03-04},
journal = {National institute economic review},
author = {Dasgupta, Partha},
year = {2007},
note = {00443},
keywords = {economics, collapse, climate},
pages = {4--7},
file = {Dasgupta - 2007 - The Stern Review's economics of climate change.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\Z74733GP\\Dasgupta - 2007 - The Stern Review's economics of climate change.pdf:application/pdf}
}Investigations of the diurnal cycle and mixing state of oxalic acid in individual particles in Asian aerosol outflow. Sullivan, R., C. & Prather, K., A. Environmental Science & Technology, 41(23):8062-8069, 2007.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
The mixing state of oxalic acid was measured in Asian outflow during ACE-Asia by direct shipboard measurements using an ATOFMS single-particle mass spectrometer. Oxalic and malonic acids were found to-be predominantly internally mixed with mineral dust and aged sea salt particles. A persistent diurnal cycle of oxalic acid in mineral dust occurred for over 25 days in marine, polluted marine, and dust storm air masses. The preferential enrichment of diacids in mineral dust over carbonaceous particles and their diurnal behavior indicate a photochemical source of the diacids. Oxalate was only detected simultaneously with elevated aged dust particle counts. This suggests that the diurnal production of diacids most likely results from episodic atmospheric processing of the polluted dust aerosol. We propose a mechanism to explain these observations in which the photochemical oxidation of volatile organic compounds is followed by partitioning of the diacids and precursors to the alkaline Asian dust, with subsequent heterogeneous and aqueous oxidation. Our data indicate that the particulate diacids were produced over just a few hours close to the source; no significant production or destruction appears to have occurred during long-range transport to the ship. No evidence of extensive cloud processing of the sampled aerosol was found. This mixing state of diacids has important implications for the solubility and cloud nucleation properties of the dominant fraction of water-soluble organics and the bioavailability of iron in dust.
@article{
title = {Investigations of the diurnal cycle and mixing state of oxalic acid in individual particles in Asian aerosol outflow},
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bibtype = {article},
author = {Sullivan, R. C. and Prather, Kimberly A},
journal = {Environmental Science & Technology},
number = {23}
}2005 (2)
Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000. Stern, D., I. Chemosphere, 58(2):163-75, 1, 2005.
Paper Website abstract bibtex
Paper Website abstract bibtex The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.
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title = {Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.},
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pages = {163-75},
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abstract = {The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Stern, David I},
journal = {Chemosphere},
number = {2}
}Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future. Andreae, M. O., Jones, C. D., & Cox, P. M. Nature, 435(7046):1187–1190, June, 2005. 00457
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain, but potentially large, amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations, and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future, aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing, because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
@article{andreae_strong_2005,
title = {Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future},
volume = {435},
issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4679},
url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature03671},
doi = {10.1038/nature03671},
abstract = {Atmospheric aerosols counteract the warming effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases by an uncertain, but potentially large, amount. This in turn leads to large uncertainties in the sensitivity of climate to human perturbations, and therefore also in carbon cycle feedbacks and projections of climate change. In the future, aerosol cooling is expected to decline relative to greenhouse gas forcing, because of the aerosols' much shorter lifetime and the pursuit of a cleaner atmosphere. Strong aerosol cooling in the past and present would then imply that future global warming may proceed at or even above the upper extreme of the range projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.},
number = {7046},
urldate = {2017-02-16},
journal = {Nature},
author = {Andreae, Meinrat O. and Jones, Chris D. and Cox, Peter M.},
month = jun,
year = {2005},
note = {00457},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, pollution},
pages = {1187--1190},
file = {Andreae et al. - 2005 - Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot f.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\E82PIRSM\\Andreae et al. - 2005 - Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot f.pdf:application/pdf}
}2004 (4)
Warming of the Arctic lower stratosphere by light absorbing particles. Baumgardner, D., Kok, G., & Raga, G. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(6):L06117, 2004.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex Recent measurements of light absorbing particles in the Arctic lower stratosphere show significantly higher mass concentrations of black carbon than were measured in 1992. The difference is primarily a result of measurements with a more quantitative and accurate technique than was previously used. We attribute the large amount of light absorbing material to transport from lower latitude, tropospheric sources rather than increases in aircraft emissions. The calculated heating rate in this aerosol layer, as compared to an atmosphere consisting of only gases, increases by 12% during the winter. This is a result of light absorption by the particles and could perturb the altitude of the local tropopause and affect tropospheric/stratospheric exchange processes.
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title = {Warming of the Arctic lower stratosphere by light absorbing particles},
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abstract = {Recent measurements of light absorbing particles in the Arctic lower stratosphere show significantly higher mass concentrations of black carbon than were measured in 1992. The difference is primarily a result of measurements with a more quantitative and accurate technique than was previously used. We attribute the large amount of light absorbing material to transport from lower latitude, tropospheric sources rather than increases in aircraft emissions. The calculated heating rate in this aerosol layer, as compared to an atmosphere consisting of only gases, increases by 12% during the winter. This is a result of light absorption by the particles and could perturb the altitude of the local tropopause and affect tropospheric/stratospheric exchange processes.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Baumgardner, D and Kok, G and Raga, G},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = {6}
}The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change. Oreskes, N. Science, 306(5702):1686–1686, December, 2004.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Policy-makers and the public who are not members of the relevant research community have had to form opinions about the reality of global climate change on the basis of often conflicting descriptions provided by the media regarding the level of scientific certainty attached to studies of climate. In this Essay, Oreskes analyzes the existing scientific literature to show that there is a robust consensus that anthropogenic global climate change is occurring. Thus, despite claims sometimes made by some groups that there is not good evidence that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities, the scientific community is in overwhelming agreement that such evidence is clear and persuasive.
@article{oreskes_scientific_2004,
title = {The {Scientific} {Consensus} on {Climate} {Change}},
volume = {306},
copyright = {© 2004 American Association for the Advancement of Science},
issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/306/5702/1686},
doi = {10.1126/science.1103618},
abstract = {Policy-makers and the public who are not members of the relevant research community have had to form opinions about the reality of global climate change on the basis of often conflicting descriptions provided by the media regarding the level of scientific certainty attached to studies of climate. In this Essay, Oreskes analyzes the existing scientific literature to show that there is a robust consensus that anthropogenic global climate change is occurring. Thus, despite claims sometimes made by some groups that there is not good evidence that Earth's climate is being affected by human activities, the scientific community is in overwhelming agreement that such evidence is clear and persuasive.},
language = {en},
number = {5702},
urldate = {2017-11-20},
journal = {Science},
author = {Oreskes, Naomi},
month = dec,
year = {2004},
pmid = {15576594},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
pages = {1686--1686},
file = {Oreskes - 2004 - The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\BKLFW258\\Oreskes - 2004 - The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change.pdf:application/pdf}
}Global Climate and the Distribution of Plant Biomes. Woodward, F. I., Lomas, M. R., & Kelly, C. K. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 359(1450):1465–1476, October, 2004.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Biomes are areas of vegetation that are characterized by the same life-form. Traditional definitions of biomes have also included either geographical or climatic descriptors. This approach describes a wide range of biomes that can be correlated with characteristic climatic conditions, or climatic envelopes. The application of remote sensing technology to the frequent observation of biomes has led to a move away from the often subjective definition of biomes to one that is objective. Carefully characterized observations of life-form, by satellite, have been used to reconsider biome classification and their climatic envelopes. Five major tree biomes can be recognized by satellites based on leaf longevity and morphology: needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf evergreen, needleleaf deciduous, broadleaf cold deciduous and broadleaf drought deciduous. Observations indicate that broadleaf drought deciduous vegetation grades substantially into broadleaf evergreen vegetation. The needleleaf deciduous biome occurs in the world's coldest climates, where summer drought and therefore a drought deciduous biome are absent. [\n] Traditional biome definitions are quite static, implying no change in their life-form composition with time, within their particular climatic envelopes. However, this is not the case where there has been global ingress of grasslands and croplands into forested vegetation. The global spread of grasses, a new superbiome, was probably initiated 30-45 Myr ago by an increase in global aridity, and was driven by the natural spread of the disturbances of fire and animal grazing. These disturbances have been further extended over the Holocene era by human activities that have increased the land areas available for domestic animal grazing and for growing crops. The current situation is that grasses now occur in most, if not all biomes, and in many areas they dominate and define the biome. Croplands are also increasing, defining a new and relatively recent component to the grassland super-biome. In the case of both grassland and croplands, various forms of disturbance, particularly frequent disturbance, lead to continued range extensions of the biomes. [Excerpt: Conclusions] Biomes have been defined traditionally by plant physiognomy and geographical distribution or climate. There has been a trend away from this non-observable biome type to one that is based on plant features that are wholly observable by remote sensing satellites. This offers the potential for objective classifications, although this may be difficult to achieve. The approach also offers a high frequency of repeat observations through the year, providing unrivalled large-scale measures of biome phenology and dynamics. Satellite observations, in addition to global fields of climate, indicate that there is only one biome with a unique climatic envelope: the deciduous needleleaf forest (figure 9). Although this biome escapes the cultivated biome there is clear overlap with C3 grassland, and also shrubs, which have not been considered here. The climatic envelope of the evergreen needleleaf forests overlaps with the cold deciduous broadleaf forests, and there is considerable overlap between the drought deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests. In all of these cases, grassland and cultivated and managed land are also present at varying frequencies. [\n] The biome concept can be supported by obvious physiognomic and phenological differences, such as between evergreen and deciduous behaviour and between broadleaf and needleleaf structure. However, the climatic overlap between most of these major biomes suggests that longterm history and migration are crucial in underpinning the actual geographical locations. The historical perspective is further amplified when it is realized that grasses, which constitute the new super-biome, through their linkage with all forms of disturbance are slowly advancing on ancient forests, in addition to changing the climate en route (Hoffmann & Jackson 2000). In bringing ecology and history together there is, therefore, a need for much greater emphasis on disturbance, in all its guises, and how it has impacted on land and biome history and phylogeny.
@article{woodwardGlobalClimateDistribution2004,
title = {Global Climate and the Distribution of Plant Biomes},
author = {Woodward, F. I. and Lomas, M. R. and Kelly, C. K.},
year = {2004},
month = oct,
volume = {359},
pages = {1465--1476},
issn = {1471-2970},
doi = {10.1098/rstb.2004.1525},
abstract = {Biomes are areas of vegetation that are characterized by the same life-form. Traditional definitions of biomes have also included either geographical or climatic descriptors. This approach describes a wide range of biomes that can be correlated with characteristic climatic conditions, or climatic envelopes. The application of remote sensing technology to the frequent observation of biomes has led to a move away from the often subjective definition of biomes to one that is objective. Carefully characterized observations of life-form, by satellite, have been used to reconsider biome classification and their climatic envelopes. Five major tree biomes can be recognized by satellites based on leaf longevity and morphology: needleleaf evergreen, broadleaf evergreen, needleleaf deciduous, broadleaf cold deciduous and broadleaf drought deciduous. Observations indicate that broadleaf drought deciduous vegetation grades substantially into broadleaf evergreen vegetation. The needleleaf deciduous biome occurs in the world's coldest climates, where summer drought and therefore a drought deciduous biome are absent.
[\textbackslash n] Traditional biome definitions are quite static, implying no change in their life-form composition with time, within their particular climatic envelopes. However, this is not the case where there has been global ingress of grasslands and croplands into forested vegetation. The global spread of grasses, a new superbiome, was probably initiated 30-45 Myr ago by an increase in global aridity, and was driven by the natural spread of the disturbances of fire and animal grazing. These disturbances have been further extended over the Holocene era by human activities that have increased the land areas available for domestic animal grazing and for growing crops. The current situation is that grasses now occur in most, if not all biomes, and in many areas they dominate and define the biome. Croplands are also increasing, defining a new and relatively recent component to the grassland super-biome. In the case of both grassland and croplands, various forms of disturbance, particularly frequent disturbance, lead to continued range extensions of the biomes.
[Excerpt: Conclusions] Biomes have been defined traditionally by plant physiognomy and geographical distribution or climate. There has been a trend away from this non-observable biome type to one that is based on plant features that are wholly observable by remote sensing satellites. This offers the potential for objective classifications, although this may be difficult to achieve. The approach also offers a high frequency of repeat observations through the year, providing unrivalled large-scale measures of biome phenology and dynamics. Satellite observations, in addition to global fields of climate, indicate that there is only one biome with a unique climatic envelope: the deciduous needleleaf forest (figure 9). Although this biome escapes the cultivated biome there is clear overlap with C3 grassland, and also shrubs, which have not been considered here. The climatic envelope of the evergreen needleleaf forests overlaps with the cold deciduous broadleaf forests, and there is considerable overlap between the drought deciduous and evergreen broadleaf forests. In all of these cases, grassland and cultivated and managed land are also present at varying frequencies.
[\textbackslash n] The biome concept can be supported by obvious physiognomic and phenological differences, such as between evergreen and deciduous behaviour and between broadleaf and needleleaf structure. However, the climatic overlap between most of these major biomes suggests that longterm history and migration are crucial in underpinning the actual geographical locations. The historical perspective is further amplified when it is realized that grasses, which constitute the new super-biome, through their linkage with all forms of disturbance are slowly advancing on ancient forests, in addition to changing the climate en route (Hoffmann \& Jackson 2000). In bringing ecology and history together there is, therefore, a need for much greater emphasis on disturbance, in all its guises, and how it has impacted on land and biome history and phylogeny.},
journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13966522,~to-add-doi-URL,biome,broadleaved,climate,conifers,deciduous,ecological-zones,evergreen,forest-resources,fuzzy,grasslands},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13966522},
number = {1450}
}Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System. Rial, J. A., Pielke, R. A., Beniston, M., Claussen, M., Canadell, J., Cox, P., Held, H., Noblet-Ducoudré, N. d., Prinn, R., Reynolds, J. F., & Salas, J. D. Climatic Change, 65(1-2):11–38, July, 2004. 00267
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both. In this paper, after a brief tutorial on the basics of climate nonlinearity, we provide a number of illustrative examples and highlight key mechanisms that give rise to nonlinear behavior, address scale and methodological issues, suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies and, lastly, recommend a number of research priorities and the establishment of education programs in Earth Systems Science. It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate.
@article{rial_nonlinearities_2004,
title = {Nonlinearities, {Feedbacks} and {Critical} {Thresholds} within the {Earth}'s {Climate} {System}},
volume = {65},
issn = {0165-0009, 1573-1480},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f},
doi = {10.1023/B:CLIM.0000037493.89489.3f},
abstract = {The Earth's climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both. In this paper, after a brief tutorial on the basics of climate nonlinearity, we provide a number of illustrative examples and highlight key mechanisms that give rise to nonlinear behavior, address scale and methodological issues, suggest a robust alternative to prediction that is based on using integrated assessments within the framework of vulnerability studies and, lastly, recommend a number of research priorities and the establishment of education programs in Earth Systems Science. It is imperative that the Earth's climate system research community embraces this nonlinear paradigm if we are to move forward in the assessment of the human influence on climate.},
language = {en},
number = {1-2},
urldate = {2017-09-26},
journal = {Climatic Change},
author = {Rial, José A. and Pielke, Roger A. and Beniston, Martin and Claussen, Martin and Canadell, Josep and Cox, Peter and Held, Hermann and Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie de and Prinn, Ronald and Reynolds, James F. and Salas, José D.},
month = jul,
year = {2004},
note = {00267},
keywords = {boundaries, climate, collapse},
pages = {11--38},
file = {Rial et al. - 2004 - Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\63A8B4IK\\Rial et al. - 2004 - Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds .pdf:application/pdf}
}2003 (1)
Intercontinental transport of air pollution: will emerging science lead to a new hemispheric treaty?. Holloway, T., Fiore, A., & Hastings, M., G. Environmental science & technology, 37(20):4535-42, 10, 2003.
Paper Website abstract bibtex
Paper Website abstract bibtex We examine the emergence of InterContinental Transport (ICT) of air pollution on the agendas of the air quality and climate communities and consider the potential for a new treaty on hemispheric air pollution. ICT is the flow of air pollutants from a source continent (e.g., North America) to a receptor continent (e.g., Europe). ICT of air pollutants occurs through two mechanisms: (i) episodic advection and (ii) increasing the global background, which enhances surface concentrations. We outline the current scientific evidence for ICT of aerosols and ozone, both of which contribute to air pollution and radiative forcing. The growing body of scientific evidence for ICT suggests that a hemispheric-scale treaty to reduce air pollutant concentrations may be appropriate to address climate and air quality concerns simultaneously. Such a treaty could pave the way for future climate agreements.
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title = {Intercontinental transport of air pollution: will emerging science lead to a new hemispheric treaty?},
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pages = {4535-42},
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confirmed = {true},
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abstract = {We examine the emergence of InterContinental Transport (ICT) of air pollution on the agendas of the air quality and climate communities and consider the potential for a new treaty on hemispheric air pollution. ICT is the flow of air pollutants from a source continent (e.g., North America) to a receptor continent (e.g., Europe). ICT of air pollutants occurs through two mechanisms: (i) episodic advection and (ii) increasing the global background, which enhances surface concentrations. We outline the current scientific evidence for ICT of aerosols and ozone, both of which contribute to air pollution and radiative forcing. The growing body of scientific evidence for ICT suggests that a hemispheric-scale treaty to reduce air pollutant concentrations may be appropriate to address climate and air quality concerns simultaneously. Such a treaty could pave the way for future climate agreements.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Holloway, Tracey and Fiore, Arlene and Hastings, Meredith Galanter},
journal = {Environmental science & technology},
number = {20}
}2002 (1)
Environmental variation, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics and water/energy exchange at high latitudes. McGuire, A. D., Wirth, C., Apps, M., Beringer, J., Clein, J., Epstein, H., Kicklighter, D. W., Bhatti, J., Chapin, F. S., de Groot, B., Efremov, D., Eugster, W., Fukuda, M., Gower, T., Hinzman, L., Huntley, B., Jia, G. J., Kasischke, E., Melillo, J., Romanovsky, V., Shvidenko, A., Vaganov, E., & Walker, D. Journal of Vegetation Science, 13(3):301–314, 2002.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Abstract. The responses of high latitude ecosystems to global change involve complex interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water and energy exchange. These responses may have important consequences for the earth system. In this study, we evaluated how vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange are related to environmental variation spanned by the network of the IGBP high latitude transects. While the most notable feature of the high latitude transects is that they generally span temperature gradients from southern to northern latitudes, there are substantial differences in temperature among the transects. Also, along each transect temperature co-varies with precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation, which are also variable among the transects. Both climate and disturbance interact to influence latitudinal patterns of vegetation and soil carbon storage among the transects, and vegetation distribution appears to interact with climate to determine exchanges of heat and moisture in high latitudes. Despite limitations imposed by the data we assembled, the analyses in this study have taken an important step toward clarifying the complexity of interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange in high latitude regions. This study reveals the need to conduct coordinated global change studies in high latitudes to further elucidate how interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation distribution influence carbon dynamics and water and energy exchange in high latitudes.
@article{mcguire_environmental_2002,
title = {Environmental variation, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics and water/energy exchange at high latitudes},
volume = {13},
issn = {1654-1103},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2002.tb02055.x},
doi = {10.1111/j.1654-1103.2002.tb02055.x},
abstract = {Abstract. The responses of high latitude ecosystems to global change involve complex interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water and energy exchange. These responses may have important consequences for the earth system. In this study, we evaluated how vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange are related to environmental variation spanned by the network of the IGBP high latitude transects. While the most notable feature of the high latitude transects is that they generally span temperature gradients from southern to northern latitudes, there are substantial differences in temperature among the transects. Also, along each transect temperature co-varies with precipitation and photosynthetically active radiation, which are also variable among the transects. Both climate and disturbance interact to influence latitudinal patterns of vegetation and soil carbon storage among the transects, and vegetation distribution appears to interact with climate to determine exchanges of heat and moisture in high latitudes. Despite limitations imposed by the data we assembled, the analyses in this study have taken an important step toward clarifying the complexity of interactions among environmental variables, vegetation distribution, carbon stocks and turnover, and water and energy exchange in high latitude regions. This study reveals the need to conduct coordinated global change studies in high latitudes to further elucidate how interactions among climate, disturbance, and vegetation distribution influence carbon dynamics and water and energy exchange in high latitudes.},
number = {3},
journal = {Journal of Vegetation Science},
author = {McGuire, A. D. and Wirth, C. and Apps, M. and Beringer, J. and Clein, J. and Epstein, H. and Kicklighter, D. W. and Bhatti, J. and Chapin, F. S. and de Groot, B. and Efremov, D. and Eugster, W. and Fukuda, M. and Gower, T. and Hinzman, L. and Huntley, B. and Jia, G. J. and Kasischke, E. and Melillo, J. and Romanovsky, V. and Shvidenko, A. and Vaganov, E. and Walker, D.},
year = {2002},
keywords = {Boreal, Climate, Disturbance, Energy, Gradient, Tundra},
pages = {301--314},
}2001 (2)
A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., Imhoff, M., Lawrence, W., Easterling, D., Peterson, T., & Karl, T. Journal of Geophysical Research, 106(D20):23947-23963, 2001.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
The authors compare the United States and global surface air temperature changes of the past century using the current Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis and the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) record [Karl et al., 1990]. Changes in the GISS analysis subsequent to the documentation by Hansen et al. [1999] are as follows: (1) incorporation of corrections for time-of-observation bias and station history adjustments in the United States based on Easterling et al. [1996], (2) reclassification of rural, small-town, and urban stations in the United States, southern Canada, and northern Mexico based on satellite measurements of night light intensity [Imhoff et al., 1997], and (3) a more flexible urban adjustment than that employed by Hansen et al. [1999], including reliance on only unlit stations in the United States and rural stations in the rest of the world for determining long-term trends. We find evidence of local human effects ("urban warming") even in suburban and small-town surface air temperature records, but the effect is modest in magnitude and conceivably could be an artifact of inhomogeneities in the station records. We suggest further studies, including more complete satellite night light analyses, which may clarify the potential urban effect.
@article{
title = {A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change},
type = {article},
year = {2001},
keywords = {AD 1900 to 2000,Air pollution,Atmosphere,Atmospheric temperature,Climate,Climatology,Global change,Global surface temperature,Meteorology,Temperature,Temporal variation,United States,Warming,usa},
pages = {23947-23963},
volume = {106},
id = {c424e472-193b-362b-a38b-595bcd2b8c16},
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notes = {<m:note>Article<m:linebreak/>American Geophys. Union</m:note>},
abstract = {The authors compare the United States and global surface air temperature changes of the past century using the current Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis and the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) record [Karl et al., 1990]. Changes in the GISS analysis subsequent to the documentation by Hansen et al. [1999] are as follows: (1) incorporation of corrections for time-of-observation bias and station history adjustments in the United States based on Easterling et al. [1996], (2) reclassification of rural, small-town, and urban stations in the United States, southern Canada, and northern Mexico based on satellite measurements of night light intensity [Imhoff et al., 1997], and (3) a more flexible urban adjustment than that employed by Hansen et al. [1999], including reliance on only unlit stations in the United States and rural stations in the rest of the world for determining long-term trends. We find evidence of local human effects ("urban warming") even in suburban and small-town surface air temperature records, but the effect is modest in magnitude and conceivably could be an artifact of inhomogeneities in the station records. We suggest further studies, including more complete satellite night light analyses, which may clarify the potential urban effect.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Hansen, J and Ruedy, R and Sato, M and Imhoff, M and Lawrence, W and Easterling, D and Peterson, T and Karl, T},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
number = {D20}
}Properties of the aerosol over the central Arctic Ocean. Bigg, E., K. & Leck, C. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 106(D23):32101-32109, 2001.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex Transmission electron microscopy was used to examine the morphology and some physical and chemical properties of individual particles collected north of latitude 80degreesN by impaction or electrostatic precipitation during the period July 21 to September 18, 1996. Particles smaller than 50 nm in diameter showed no evidence of the presence of sulfuric acid, previously believed responsible for new particle formation. Many were crystalline or semicrystalline often with pentagonal or hexagonal habit and more heat resistant than ammonium salts. Most were unaffected by decane or xylene vapor, but some were wholly or partly dissolved, indicating that they were chemically different. Sulfuric acid, ammonia, and probably methane sulfonic acid appeared to be mainly responsible for growth of these particles to the sizes that could become involved in cloud drop formation, about 80-100 nm in diameter. Much greater diversity was present in larger particles, the most numerous class of which usually appeared to be very variable mixtures of sulfuric acid, methane sulfonic acid, and their ammonium salts. All contained significant organic material. Particles containing sea salt were generally larger than 250 nm in diameter and contained an amazing variety of other material, much of it organic. On days with sunshine unusual numbers of particles <5 nm and in the range 10-50 nm in diameter occurred. At the same time, concentrations of three different types of particle with diameters of the order of 100 nm were enhanced. One group was liquid when collected, had a large organic content, and wet the collecting surface. The other two were bacteria and flat insoluble plates some of which contained fragments of diatoms. It is proposed that they were ejected into the air by bubbles bursting on the open leads.
@article{
title = {Properties of the aerosol over the central Arctic Ocean},
type = {article},
year = {2001},
keywords = {autumn,climate,dimethyl sulfide,expedition,marine boundary-layer,phytoplankton,sea-salt,sulfur,summer,variability},
pages = {32101-32109},
volume = {106},
websites = {<Go to ISI>://000173479100035},
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read = {false},
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notes = {Article},
abstract = {Transmission electron microscopy was used to examine the morphology and some physical and chemical properties of individual particles collected north of latitude 80degreesN by impaction or electrostatic precipitation during the period July 21 to September 18, 1996. Particles smaller than 50 nm in diameter showed no evidence of the presence of sulfuric acid, previously believed responsible for new particle formation. Many were crystalline or semicrystalline often with pentagonal or hexagonal habit and more heat resistant than ammonium salts. Most were unaffected by decane or xylene vapor, but some were wholly or partly dissolved, indicating that they were chemically different. Sulfuric acid, ammonia, and probably methane sulfonic acid appeared to be mainly responsible for growth of these particles to the sizes that could become involved in cloud drop formation, about 80-100 nm in diameter. Much greater diversity was present in larger particles, the most numerous class of which usually appeared to be very variable mixtures of sulfuric acid, methane sulfonic acid, and their ammonium salts. All contained significant organic material. Particles containing sea salt were generally larger than 250 nm in diameter and contained an amazing variety of other material, much of it organic. On days with sunshine unusual numbers of particles <5 nm and in the range 10-50 nm in diameter occurred. At the same time, concentrations of three different types of particle with diameters of the order of 100 nm were enhanced. One group was liquid when collected, had a large organic content, and wet the collecting surface. The other two were bacteria and flat insoluble plates some of which contained fragments of diatoms. It is proposed that they were ejected into the air by bubbles bursting on the open leads.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Bigg, E K and Leck, C},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres},
number = {D23}
}1999 (1)
Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions and landcover/climate change in a subtropical savanna. Guenther, A., Archer, S., Greenberg, J., Harley, P., Helmig, D., Klinger, L., Vierling, L., Wildermuth, M., Zimmerman, P., & Zitzer, S. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Part B-Hydrology Oceans and Atmosphere, 24(6):659-667, 1999.
Website abstract bibtex
Website abstract bibtex Biogenic non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions strongly influence the chemical composition of the troposphere. Thus, variations in emissions of these compounds are expected to cause changes in concentrations of important atmospheric trace gases. Here, we assess the relative magnitude of potential changes in NMHC (e.g., isoprene and monoterpene) emissions using field flux measurements from a subtropical savanna parkland/thorn woodland site in conjunction with model predictions of climate and landcover change. NMHC emissions of about 40 plant species were characterized. Grasses, as a group, had low emission rates. Several common woody species had high emission rates. However, there was little evidence of emissions being consistently related to woody plant taxonomy, growthform or functional groups. Above-canopy measurements were used to validate modeled isoprene flux predictions of about 2 mg C m(-2) h(-1) for savanna parkland/thorn woodland and ca. 0.7 mg C m(-2) h(-1) for the regional landscape, which is a mixture of savanna parkland/thorn woodland and cropland. Linkage of the biogenic emissions model with a plant succession model indicated that landcover change since the early 1800s has elicited a 3-fold increase in total NMHC emissions. This increase reflected changes in vegetation species composition (from domination by grasses which were typically 'low emitters', to shrubs and trees, many of which were 'high emitters') and increases in foliar density. Field measurements on two common shrub species indicated that isoprene emission increased exponentially with increases in leaf temperature from 20 to 40 degrees C and were not suppressed by drought stress. Accordingly, our model predicted that projected increases in ambient temperature (3 to 6 degrees C) emissions could produce a 2-fold increase in biogenic NMHC emissions. Cloud cover, precipitation, relative humidity, and winds also exerted some control over NMHC emissions, but their influence was highly variable and difficult to estimate. Although our results are specific to southern Texas USA, they indicate the magnitude of change in NMHC emissions that could occur at other locations when climate and vegetation composition are altered. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
@article{
title = {Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions and landcover/climate change in a subtropical savanna},
type = {article},
year = {1999},
identifiers = {[object Object]},
keywords = {climate,ecosystem,isoprene emission,land-use,model,organic-compound emissions,photosynthesis,united-states,variability,woodlands},
pages = {659-667},
volume = {24},
websites = {<Go to ISI>://000082526000028},
id = {069ace12-1e1c-39ee-8c2b-fee25d481e87},
created = {2015-02-12T02:07:45.000Z},
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read = {false},
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confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
source_type = {Journal Article},
language = {English},
notes = {<m:note>235EA<m:linebreak/>Times Cited:38<m:linebreak/>Cited References Count:33</m:note>},
abstract = {Biogenic non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC) emissions strongly influence the chemical composition of the troposphere. Thus, variations in emissions of these compounds are expected to cause changes in concentrations of important atmospheric trace gases. Here, we assess the relative magnitude of potential changes in NMHC (e.g., isoprene and monoterpene) emissions using field flux measurements from a subtropical savanna parkland/thorn woodland site in conjunction with model predictions of climate and landcover change. NMHC emissions of about 40 plant species were characterized. Grasses, as a group, had low emission rates. Several common woody species had high emission rates. However, there was little evidence of emissions being consistently related to woody plant taxonomy, growthform or functional groups. Above-canopy measurements were used to validate modeled isoprene flux predictions of about 2 mg C m(-2) h(-1) for savanna parkland/thorn woodland and ca. 0.7 mg C m(-2) h(-1) for the regional landscape, which is a mixture of savanna parkland/thorn woodland and cropland. Linkage of the biogenic emissions model with a plant succession model indicated that landcover change since the early 1800s has elicited a 3-fold increase in total NMHC emissions. This increase reflected changes in vegetation species composition (from domination by grasses which were typically 'low emitters', to shrubs and trees, many of which were 'high emitters') and increases in foliar density. Field measurements on two common shrub species indicated that isoprene emission increased exponentially with increases in leaf temperature from 20 to 40 degrees C and were not suppressed by drought stress. Accordingly, our model predicted that projected increases in ambient temperature (3 to 6 degrees C) emissions could produce a 2-fold increase in biogenic NMHC emissions. Cloud cover, precipitation, relative humidity, and winds also exerted some control over NMHC emissions, but their influence was highly variable and difficult to estimate. Although our results are specific to southern Texas USA, they indicate the magnitude of change in NMHC emissions that could occur at other locations when climate and vegetation composition are altered. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Guenther, A and Archer, S and Greenberg, J and Harley, P and Helmig, D and Klinger, L and Vierling, L and Wildermuth, M and Zimmerman, P and Zitzer, S},
journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Part B-Hydrology Oceans and Atmosphere},
number = {6}
}1998 (1)
Review of Oak Stand Decline with Special Reference to the Role of Drought in Poland. Siwkcki, R. & Ufnalski, K. Forest Pathology, 28(2):99–112, March, 1998.
doi abstract bibtex
doi abstract bibtex
Declines in oak-forest ecosystems have been reported frequently throughout the world since the beginning of this century. They have been associated with the death of individual trees, of small groups of trees or of entire stands. In this paper, the phenomenon of oak decline is presented in the context of the local site conditions in selected countries. Oak decline is regarded as a result of the synergistic action between damaging agents, both biotic and abiotic. Periodic changes of the climate in selected experimental plots of Quercus robur stands in Poland were analysed by comparing Walter's climatic diagrams and annual growth rings. Climatic conditions have a major influence on the vigour of oaks. An increase in the frequency of dry years (especially when drought occurs at the beginning of the growing season, e.g. in May-June) has contributed to the complex phenomenon of oak decline.
@article{siwkckiReviewOakStand1998,
title = {Review of Oak Stand Decline with Special Reference to the Role of Drought in {{Poland}}},
author = {Siwkcki, R. and Ufnalski, K.},
year = {1998},
month = mar,
volume = {28},
pages = {99--112},
issn = {1437-4781},
doi = {10.1111/j.1439-0329.1998.tb01171.x},
abstract = {Declines in oak-forest ecosystems have been reported frequently throughout the world since the beginning of this century. They have been associated with the death of individual trees, of small groups of trees or of entire stands. In this paper, the phenomenon of oak decline is presented in the context of the local site conditions in selected countries. Oak decline is regarded as a result of the synergistic action between damaging agents, both biotic and abiotic. Periodic changes of the climate in selected experimental plots of Quercus robur stands in Poland were analysed by comparing Walter's climatic diagrams and annual growth rings. Climatic conditions have a major influence on the vigour of oaks. An increase in the frequency of dry years (especially when drought occurs at the beginning of the growing season, e.g. in May-June) has contributed to the complex phenomenon of oak decline.},
journal = {Forest Pathology},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13512768,climate,droughts,dry-years,forest-pests,quercus-cerris,quercus-ilex,quercus-petraea,quercus-pubescens,quercus-robur,quercus-spp,quercus-suber,species-decline},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13512768},
number = {2}
}1997 (1)
The physical basis of the Lake Mikri Prespa systems: geology, climate, hydrology and water quality. G. E. Hollis & A. C. Stevenson Hydrobiologia, 351:1–19, 1997.
abstract bibtex
abstract bibtex
Lake Mikri Prespa is 47 km2 in area, with a maximum depth of 8.4 m and a normal water level at around 850 m above sea level. It collects water froma granitic and karstic catchment of 189 km2 which includes snowy mountains rising to over 2000 m. The main flat land is the sedimentary plain to the east and the sandy isthmus that separates Mikri Prespa from the much larger Megali Prespa into which the former normally drains. Rainfall averages around 750mmbecause the 600 mmto 700 mmfalling on the plains is augmented by heavier falls including much snow on the mountains. There is rainfall each month with an autumnal maximum. River inputs to the lake and the lake level itself peak in the spring with the snowmelt. Mikri Prespa normally rises by about a metre to flood the surrounding wetmeadows landward of the reed fringe. The annual cycle of water level fluctuation is superimposed on infrequent upward surges in the level ofMikri andMegali Prespa because of particularly wet and snowy winters and, in recent years, the steady decline of the level of Megali Prespa because of tectonic activity. There has been considerable human modification of the hydrology of the area with the diversion of the Agios Germanos torrent from Mikri to Megali Prespa, the creation of a canal in Albania which can input or withdraw water from the lake, the culverting of the canal linking Mikri and Megali Prespa, and the creation of an irrigation scheme taking water directly from Mikri Prespa and from the Agios Germanos stream. The lake water is base rich because of the limestone in the catchment.Whilst concern has been expressed at the eutrophication of the lake, recent studies have proved that there has been no significant change in nutrient status this century and the lake is not eutrophic. There has been a significant increase in turbidity but this may be the result of sediment disturbance by an introduced fish species. The lake and its supporting hydrological system will need careful monitoring if it is to be effectively managed. A particularly high priority is the development and implementation of a water level management plan for the lake.
@article{g._e._hollis_physical_1997,
title = {The physical basis of the {Lake} {Mikri} {Prespa} systems: geology, climate,
hydrology and water quality},
volume = {351},
abstract = {Lake Mikri Prespa is 47 km2 in area, with a maximum depth of 8.4 m and a normal water level at around 850 m
above sea level. It collects water froma granitic and karstic catchment of 189 km2 which includes snowy mountains
rising to over 2000 m. The main flat land is the sedimentary plain to the east and the sandy isthmus that separates
Mikri Prespa from the much larger Megali Prespa into which the former normally drains. Rainfall averages around
750mmbecause the 600 mmto 700 mmfalling on the plains is augmented by heavier falls including much snow on
the mountains. There is rainfall each month with an autumnal maximum. River inputs to the lake and the lake level
itself peak in the spring with the snowmelt. Mikri Prespa normally rises by about a metre to flood the surrounding
wetmeadows landward of the reed fringe. The annual cycle of water level fluctuation is superimposed on infrequent
upward surges in the level ofMikri andMegali Prespa because of particularly wet and snowy winters and, in recent
years, the steady decline of the level of Megali Prespa because of tectonic activity.
There has been considerable human modification of the hydrology of the area with the diversion of the Agios
Germanos torrent from Mikri to Megali Prespa, the creation of a canal in Albania which can input or withdraw
water from the lake, the culverting of the canal linking Mikri and Megali Prespa, and the creation of an irrigation
scheme taking water directly from Mikri Prespa and from the Agios Germanos stream.
The lake water is base rich because of the limestone in the catchment.Whilst concern has been expressed at the
eutrophication of the lake, recent studies have proved that there has been no significant change in nutrient status
this century and the lake is not eutrophic. There has been a significant increase in turbidity but this may be the
result of sediment disturbance by an introduced fish species.
The lake and its supporting hydrological system will need careful monitoring if it is to be effectively managed.
A particularly high priority is the development and implementation of a water level management plan for the lake.},
journal = {Hydrobiologia},
author = {{G. E. Hollis} and {A. C. Stevenson}},
year = {1997},
keywords = {Greece, climate, geology, hydrology, lake level regime, management, water quality},
pages = {1--19},
}1995 (1)
Continuous Measurement of $ CO _ 2 $ for Estimation of Air-Water Fluxes in Lakes : An in Situ Technique. Sellers, P., Hesslein, R., H., & Kelly, C., A. Limnology and Oceanography, 40(3):575-581, 1995.
Paper bibtex
Paper bibtex @article{
title = {Continuous Measurement of $ CO _ 2 $ for Estimation of Air-Water Fluxes in Lakes : An in Situ Technique},
type = {article},
year = {1995},
pages = {575-581},
volume = {40},
id = {994d5597-003e-380e-9e6f-55c0c8de4dfa},
created = {2019-07-12T15:08:03.983Z},
file_attached = {true},
profile_id = {3c181434-ae75-3e95-a723-2bfcc2f14c0b},
group_id = {db3318bf-b2fb-3b86-9f1d-17188c0ddfa3},
last_modified = {2019-07-30T15:46:14.437Z},
read = {false},
starred = {false},
authored = {false},
confirmed = {true},
hidden = {false},
citation_key = {Sellers2009},
private_publication = {false},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Sellers, P. and Hesslein, R. H. and Kelly, C. A.},
journal = {Limnology and Oceanography},
number = {3},
keywords = {CARBON,CARBON BUDGET,CLIMATE,CO2,ELA,ELARP,GLOBAL WARMING,GREENHOUSE GASES,L979,METHODS}
}1991 (1)
Vegetation-pollen-climate relationships for the acrto-boreal region of North America and Greenland. Anderson, P. M., Bartlein, P. J., Brubaker, L. B., Gajewski, K., & Ritchie, J. Journal of Biogeography, 18:565–582, 1991.
Paper bibtex
Paper bibtex @article{anderson_vegetation-pollen-climate_1991,
title = {Vegetation-pollen-climate relationships for the acrto-boreal region of {North} {America} and {Greenland}},
volume = {18},
url = {C:\Documents and Settings\phiguera\Desktop\j[1].1365-2699.2004.01223.x.enw},
journal = {Journal of Biogeography},
author = {Anderson, P. M. and Bartlein, P. J. and Brubaker, L. B. and Gajewski, K. and Ritchie, J.C.},
year = {1991},
keywords = {Alaska, Canada, Greenland, arctic, climate, moddern analogues, multivariate analysis, paleoecology, palynology},
pages = {565--582},
}undefined (18)
Observational Evidence for Cloud Cover Enhancement over Western European Forests. Teuling, A. J., Taylor, C. M., Meirink, J. F., Melsen, L. A., Miralles, D. G., van Heerwaarden, C. C., Vautard, R., Stegehuis, A. I., Nabuurs, G., & de Arellano, J. V. 8:14065+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15\,min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, we show that widespread windthrow by cyclone Klaus in the Landes forest led to a significant decrease in local cloud cover in subsequent years. Strong cloud development along the downwind edges of larger forest areas are consistent with a forest-breeze mesoscale circulation. Our results highlight the need to include impacts on cloud formation when evaluating the water and climate services of temperate forests, in particular around densely populated areas.
@article{teulingObservationalEvidenceCloud2017,
title = {Observational Evidence for Cloud Cover Enhancement over Western {{European}} Forests},
author = {Teuling, Adriaan J. and Taylor, Christopher M. and Meirink, Jan F. and Melsen, Lieke A. and Miralles, Diego G. and van Heerwaarden, Chiel C. and Vautard, Robert and Stegehuis, Annemiek I. and Nabuurs, Gert-Jan and de Arellano, Jordi V.},
date = {2017-01},
journaltitle = {Nature Communications},
volume = {8},
pages = {14065+},
issn = {2041-1723},
doi = {10.1038/ncomms14065},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/14257971},
abstract = {Forests impact regional hydrology and climate directly by regulating water and heat fluxes. Indirect effects through cloud formation and precipitation can be important in facilitating continental-scale moisture recycling but are poorly understood at regional scales. In particular, the impact of temperate forest on clouds is largely unknown. Here we provide observational evidence for a strong increase in cloud cover over large forest regions in western Europe based on analysis of 10 years of 15\,min resolution data from geostationary satellites. In addition, we show that widespread windthrow by cyclone Klaus in the Landes forest led to a significant decrease in local cloud cover in subsequent years. Strong cloud development along the downwind edges of larger forest areas are consistent with a forest-breeze mesoscale circulation. Our results highlight the need to include impacts on cloud formation when evaluating the water and climate services of temperate forests, in particular around densely populated areas.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14257971,~to-add-doi-URL,climate,climate-projections,cloud-formation,cloudiness,cross-disciplinary-perspective,ecosystem-services,europe,featured-publication,feedback,forest-breeze,forest-resources,modelling-uncertainty,temperate-forests},
options = {useprefix=true}
}Population and forest dynamics during the Central European Eneolithic (4500–2000 BC). Kolář, J., Kuneš, P., Szabó, P., Hajnalová, M., Svobodová, H. S., Macek, M., & Tkáč, P. Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The population boom-and-bust during the European Neolithic (7000–2000 BC) has been the subject of lively discussion for the past decade. Most of the research on this topic was carried out with help of summed radiocarbon probability distributions. We aim to reconstruct population dynamics within the catchment of a medium sized lake on the basis of information on the presence of all known past human activities. We calculated a human activity model based on Monte Carlo simulations. The model showed the lowest level of human activity between 4000 and 3000 BC. For a better understanding of long-term socio-environmental dynamics, we also used the results of a pollen-based quantitative vegetation model, as well as a local macrophysical climate model. The beginning of the decline of archaeologically visible human activities corresponds with climatic changes and an increase in secondary forest taxa probably indicating more extensive land use. In addition, social and technological innovations are important, such as the introduction of the ard, wheel, animal traction and metallurgy, as well as changes in social hierarchy characterizing the same period.
@article{kolar_population_nodate,
title = {Population and forest dynamics during the {Central} {European} {Eneolithic} (4500–2000 {BC})},
issn = {1866-9557, 1866-9565},
url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12520-016-0446-5},
doi = {10.1007/s12520-016-0446-5},
abstract = {The population boom-and-bust during the European Neolithic (7000–2000 BC) has been the subject of lively discussion for the past decade. Most of the research on this topic was carried out with help of summed radiocarbon probability distributions. We aim to reconstruct population dynamics within the catchment of a medium sized lake on the basis of information on the presence of all known past human activities. We calculated a human activity model based on Monte Carlo simulations. The model showed the lowest level of human activity between 4000 and 3000 BC. For a better understanding of long-term socio-environmental dynamics, we also used the results of a pollen-based quantitative vegetation model, as well as a local macrophysical climate model. The beginning of the decline of archaeologically visible human activities corresponds with climatic changes and an increase in secondary forest taxa probably indicating more extensive land use. In addition, social and technological innovations are important, such as the introduction of the ard, wheel, animal traction and metallurgy, as well as changes in social hierarchy characterizing the same period.},
language = {English},
urldate = {2016-12-14TZ},
journal = {Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences},
author = {Kolář, Jan and Kuneš, Petr and Szabó, Péter and Hajnalová, Mária and Svobodová, Helena Svitavská and Macek, Martin and Tkáč, Peter},
keywords = {Czech Republic, MCM model, Neolithic, Population density, REVEALS, climate, cultural landscape}
}ENSO as an Integrating Concept in Earth Science. McPhaden, M. J., Zebiak, S. E., & Glantz, M. H. 314(5806):1740–1745.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.
@article{mcphadenENSOIntegratingConcept2006,
title = {{{ENSO}} as an Integrating Concept in {{Earth}} Science},
author = {McPhaden, Michael J. and Zebiak, Stephen E. and Glantz, Michael H.},
date = {2006},
journaltitle = {Science},
volume = {314},
pages = {1740--1745},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.1132588},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1132588},
abstract = {The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997-1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSO's influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007188,climate,education,el-nino,enso,uncertainty},
number = {5806}
}Microclim: Global Estimates of Hourly Microclimate Based on Long-Term Monthly Climate Averages. Kearney, M. R., Isaac, A. P., & Porter, W. P.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1\,m depth) at high resolution (̃15\,km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms.
@article{kearneyMicroclimGlobalEstimates2014,
title = {Microclim: {{Global}} Estimates of Hourly Microclimate Based on Long-Term Monthly Climate Averages},
author = {Kearney, Michael R. and Isaac, Andrew P. and Porter, Warren P.},
date = {2014-05},
journaltitle = {Scientific Data},
volume = {1},
issn = {2052-4463},
doi = {10.1038/sdata.2014.6},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2014.6},
abstract = {The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1\,m depth) at high resolution (̃15\,km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13465200,climate,data-sharing,evapotranspiration,free-scientific-knowledge,global-scale,open-data,precipitation,solar-radiation,temperature}
}Climatic Feedbacks and Desertification: The Mediterranean Model. Millán, M. M., Estrela, M. J., Sanz, M. J., Mantilla, E., Mart́ın, M., Pastor, F., Salvador, R., Vallejo, R., Alonso, L., Gangoiti, G., Ilardia, J. L., Navazo, M., Albizuri, A., Art́ıñano, B., Ciccioli, P., Kallos, G., Carvalho, R. A., Andrés, D., Hoff, A., Werhahn, J., Seufert, G., & Versino, B. 18(5):684–701.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Mesometeorological information obtained in several research projects in southern Europe has been used to analyze perceived changes in the western Mediterranean summer storm regime. A procedure was developed to disaggregate daily precipitation data into three main components: frontal precipitation, summer storms, and Mediterranean cyclogenesis. Working hypotheses were derived on the likely processes involved. The results indicate that the precipitation regime in this Mediterranean region is very sensitive to variations in surface airmass temperature and moisture. Land-use perturbations that accumulated over historical time and greatly accelerated in the last 30 yr may have induced changes from an open, monsoon-type regime with frequent summer storms over the mountains inland to one dominated by closed vertical recirculations where feedback mechanisms favor the loss of storms over the coastal mountains and additional heating of the sea surface temperature during summer. This, in turn, favors Mediterranean cyclogenesis and torrential rains in autumn?winter. Because these intense rains and floods can occur anywhere in the basin, perturbations to the hydrological cycle in any part of the basin can propagate to the whole basin and adjacent regions. Furthermore, present levels of air pollutants can produce greenhouse heating, amplifying the perturbations and pushing the system over critical threshold levels. The questions raised are relevant for the new European Union (EU) water policies in southern Europe and for other regions dominated by monsoon-type weather systems. [Excerpt: Discussion] Available experimental results suggest that, because of the nature of the atmospheric circulations along its coasts, the hydrological cycle in the western Mediterranean basin has been drifting toward a critical threshold level, that is, when the cloud condensation levels of the surface air masses rise above the coastal mountain ridges, leading to the loss of summer storms. Any additional perturbations to the surface air masses, including increasing their temperature (by whatever means) or decreasing evaporation and evapotranspiration along their paths, or any combinations of these, could tip the present situation further toward the loss of mountain storms and desertification at the local-regional scale. [] The question of the end radiative effect of air pollution in the Mediterranean basin, that is, is it cooling or warming the sea and surface air mass, is still open, even though our results indicate that warming dominates in the western Mediterranean at this stage. The hypothesis that the radiative effects of particulates cool the Mediterranean (Lelieveld et al. 2002) would indeed lead to less evaporation and fewer summer storms, but it would also lead to fewer torrential rains in autumn-winter-spring, which is contrary to observations in the western basin. [] Our working hypotheses on the possible reasons for the observed precipitation changes in the western Mediterranean basin relate to 1) land-use changes, as the main factor drying the surface and 2) atmospheric composition changes, that is, an increase in tropospheric ozone and aerosols producing additional greenhouse heating. The hypotheses are as follows: [::] Land use that results in surface drying leads to increased heating of the surface air mass, lower evaporation, higher cloud condensation levels, and thus fewer summer storms in the mountains inland. [::] The radiative effects of air pollution could be further heating the surface air mass and lifting the CCL; this could be perturbing (present) local balances just enough to tip the equilibrium toward decreased summer storms. [::] In turn, the recirculatory nature and the long residence times of the air masses in this region lead to the accumulation of ozone and water vapor (both acting as greenhouse gases) in the lower-to-upper troposphere over the western Mediterranean, adding to the heating of the sea surface during the summer and to an increase in torrential rains in autumn and winter at the regional (basin) scale. [] In relation to climate-vegetation feedbacks we can consider the following: [::] long-term effects, that is, fewer storms in the mountains, positive feedback through vegetation losses (less evapotranspiration), and increased surface heating (drier soil) toward desertification; [::] delayed effects, that is, a warmer Mediterranean by the end of summer and early autumn leading to more frequent and intense torrential rains, by positive feedback. These rains can occur anywhere in the basin and result in flash floods over the coasts and nearby mountain slopes; and [::] if the slope vegetation response to these flash floods is increased soil erosion, then the positive feedback toward desertification would be further reinforced. [] Finally, another far-reaching conclusion is that any perturbation to the hydrological cycle in any part of the western basin can propagate to other parts of the basin and neighboring regions. This derives from the fact that the warmer water pools move (i.e., rotate) within the basin, and, thus, any increase in sea surface temperature can result in torrential rain and flash floods anywhere in the basin.
@article{millanClimaticFeedbacksDesertification2005,
title = {Climatic Feedbacks and Desertification: The {{Mediterranean}} Model},
author = {Millán, M. M. and Estrela, M. J. and Sanz, M. J. and Mantilla, E. and Mart́ın, M. and Pastor, F. and Salvador, R. and Vallejo, R. and Alonso, L. and Gangoiti, G. and Ilardia, J. L. and Navazo, M. and Albizuri, A. and Art́ıñano, B. and Ciccioli, P. and Kallos, G. and Carvalho, R. A. and Andrés, D. and Hoff, A. and Werhahn, J. and Seufert, G. and Versino, B.},
date = {2005-03},
journaltitle = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {18},
pages = {684--701},
issn = {1520-0442},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-3283.1},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-3283.1},
abstract = {Mesometeorological information obtained in several research projects in southern Europe has been used to analyze perceived changes in the western Mediterranean summer storm regime. A procedure was developed to disaggregate daily precipitation data into three main components: frontal precipitation, summer storms, and Mediterranean cyclogenesis. Working hypotheses were derived on the likely processes involved. The results indicate that the precipitation regime in this Mediterranean region is very sensitive to variations in surface airmass temperature and moisture. Land-use perturbations that accumulated over historical time and greatly accelerated in the last 30 yr may have induced changes from an open, monsoon-type regime with frequent summer storms over the mountains inland to one dominated by closed vertical recirculations where feedback mechanisms favor the loss of storms over the coastal mountains and additional heating of the sea surface temperature during summer. This, in turn, favors Mediterranean cyclogenesis and torrential rains in autumn?winter. Because these intense rains and floods can occur anywhere in the basin, perturbations to the hydrological cycle in any part of the basin can propagate to the whole basin and adjacent regions. Furthermore, present levels of air pollutants can produce greenhouse heating, amplifying the perturbations and pushing the system over critical threshold levels. The questions raised are relevant for the new European Union (EU) water policies in southern Europe and for other regions dominated by monsoon-type weather systems.
[Excerpt: Discussion]
Available experimental results suggest that, because of the nature of the atmospheric circulations along its coasts, the hydrological cycle in the western Mediterranean basin has been drifting toward a critical threshold level, that is, when the cloud condensation levels of the surface air masses rise above the coastal mountain ridges, leading to the loss of summer storms. Any additional perturbations to the surface air masses, including increasing their temperature (by whatever means) or decreasing evaporation and evapotranspiration along their paths, or any combinations of these, could tip the present situation further toward the loss of mountain storms and desertification at the local-regional scale.
[] The question of the end radiative effect of air pollution in the Mediterranean basin, that is, is it cooling or warming the sea and surface air mass, is still open, even though our results indicate that warming dominates in the western Mediterranean at this stage. The hypothesis that the radiative effects of particulates cool the Mediterranean (Lelieveld et al. 2002) would indeed lead to less evaporation and fewer summer storms, but it would also lead to fewer torrential rains in autumn-winter-spring, which is contrary to observations in the western basin.
[] Our working hypotheses on the possible reasons for the observed precipitation changes in the western Mediterranean basin relate to 1) land-use changes, as the main factor drying the surface and 2) atmospheric composition changes, that is, an increase in tropospheric ozone and aerosols producing additional greenhouse heating. The hypotheses are as follows:
[::] Land use that results in surface drying leads to increased heating of the surface air mass, lower evaporation, higher cloud condensation levels, and thus fewer summer storms in the mountains inland.
[::] The radiative effects of air pollution could be further heating the surface air mass and lifting the CCL; this could be perturbing (present) local balances just enough to tip the equilibrium toward decreased summer storms.
[::] In turn, the recirculatory nature and the long residence times of the air masses in this region lead to the accumulation of ozone and water vapor (both acting as greenhouse gases) in the lower-to-upper troposphere over the western Mediterranean, adding to the heating of the sea surface during the summer and to an increase in torrential rains in autumn and winter at the regional (basin) scale.
[] In relation to climate-vegetation feedbacks we can consider the following:
[::] long-term effects, that is, fewer storms in the mountains, positive feedback through vegetation losses (less evapotranspiration), and increased surface heating (drier soil) toward desertification;
[::] delayed effects, that is, a warmer Mediterranean by the end of summer and early autumn leading to more frequent and intense torrential rains, by positive feedback. These rains can occur anywhere in the basin and result in flash floods over the coasts and nearby mountain slopes; and
[::] if the slope vegetation response to these flash floods is increased soil erosion, then the positive feedback toward desertification would be further reinforced.
[] Finally, another far-reaching conclusion is that any perturbation to the hydrological cycle in any part of the western basin can propagate to other parts of the basin and neighboring regions. This derives from the fact that the warmer water pools move (i.e., rotate) within the basin, and, thus, any increase in sea surface temperature can result in torrential rain and flash floods anywhere in the basin.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7749100,climate,complexity,desertification,feedback,land-use,mediterranean-region,non-linearity},
number = {5}
}Characterisation of Selected Extreme Flash Floods in Europe and Implications for Flood Risk Management. Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., & Gaume, E. 394(1-2):118–133.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex High-resolution data enabling identification and analysis of the hydrometeorological causative processes of flash floods have been collected and analysed for 25 extreme flash floods (60 drainage basins, ranging in area from 9.5 to 1856~km2) across Europe. Most of the selected floods are located in a geographical belt crossing Europe from western Mediterranean (Catalunia and southwestern France) to Black Sea, covering northern Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Slovakia and Romania. Criteria for flood selection were high intensity of triggering rainfall and flood response and availability of high-resolution reliable data. Hydrometeorological data collected and collated for each event were checked by using a hydrological model. The derivation and analysis of summarising variables based on the data archive has made it possible to outline some characteristics of flash floods in various morphoclimatic regions of Europe. Peak discharge data for more than 50\,% of the studied watersheds derive from post-flood surveys in ungauged streams. This stresses both the significance of post-flood surveys in building and extending flash flood data bases, and the need to develop new methods for flash flood hazard assessment able to take into account data from post-event analysis. Examination of data shows a peculiar seasonality effect on flash flood occurrence, with events in the Mediterranean and Alpine-Mediterranean regions mostly occurring in autumn, whereas events in the inland Continental region commonly occur in summer, revealing different climatic forcing. Consistently with this seasonality effect, spatial extent and duration of the events is generally smaller for the Continental events with respect to those occurring in the Mediterranean region. Furthermore, the flash flood regime is generally more intense in the Mediterranean Region than in the Continental areas. The runoff coefficients of the studied flash floods are usually rather low (mean value: 0.35). Moderate differences in runoff coefficient are observed between the studied climatic regions, with higher values in the Mediterranean region. Antecedent saturation conditions have a significant impact on event runoff coefficients, showing the influence of initial soil moisture status even on extreme flash flood events and stressing the importance of accounting soil moisture for operational flash flood forecasting. The runoff response displays short lag times (mostly $<$6~h). The identified relations between watershed area, stream length and response time enable determination of a characteristic mean velocity of the flash flood process (at basin scales less than 350~km2), defined as the ratio of characteristic length (mean river length) and time (response time or lag time), equal to 3~m~s-1. This is related to the celerity with which the flood wave moves through the catchment. The analysis of the response time provides information on the time resolution and the spatial density of the networks required for monitoring the storms that generate flash floods.
@article{marchiCharacterisationSelectedExtreme2010,
title = {Characterisation of Selected Extreme Flash Floods in {{Europe}} and Implications for Flood Risk Management},
author = {Marchi, L. and Borga, M. and Preciso, E. and Gaume, E.},
date = {2010-11},
journaltitle = {Journal of Hydrology},
volume = {394},
pages = {118--133},
issn = {0022-1694},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.017},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.017},
abstract = {High-resolution data enabling identification and analysis of the hydrometeorological causative processes of flash floods have been collected and analysed for 25 extreme flash floods (60 drainage basins, ranging in area from 9.5 to 1856~km2) across Europe. Most of the selected floods are located in a geographical belt crossing Europe from western Mediterranean (Catalunia and southwestern France) to Black Sea, covering northern Italy, Slovenia, Austria, Slovakia and Romania. Criteria for flood selection were high intensity of triggering rainfall and flood response and availability of high-resolution reliable data. Hydrometeorological data collected and collated for each event were checked by using a hydrological model. The derivation and analysis of summarising variables based on the data archive has made it possible to outline some characteristics of flash floods in various morphoclimatic regions of Europe. Peak discharge data for more than 50\,\% of the studied watersheds derive from post-flood surveys in ungauged streams. This stresses both the significance of post-flood surveys in building and extending flash flood data bases, and the need to develop new methods for flash flood hazard assessment able to take into account data from post-event analysis. Examination of data shows a peculiar seasonality effect on flash flood occurrence, with events in the Mediterranean and Alpine-Mediterranean regions mostly occurring in autumn, whereas events in the inland Continental region commonly occur in summer, revealing different climatic forcing. Consistently with this seasonality effect, spatial extent and duration of the events is generally smaller for the Continental events with respect to those occurring in the Mediterranean region. Furthermore, the flash flood regime is generally more intense in the Mediterranean Region than in the Continental areas. The runoff coefficients of the studied flash floods are usually rather low (mean value: 0.35). Moderate differences in runoff coefficient are observed between the studied climatic regions, with higher values in the Mediterranean region. Antecedent saturation conditions have a significant impact on event runoff coefficients, showing the influence of initial soil moisture status even on extreme flash flood events and stressing the importance of accounting soil moisture for operational flash flood forecasting. The runoff response displays short lag times (mostly {$<$}6~h). The identified relations between watershed area, stream length and response time enable determination of a characteristic mean velocity of the flash flood process (at basin scales less than 350~km2), defined as the ratio of characteristic length (mean river length) and time (response time or lag time), equal to 3~m~s-1. This is related to the celerity with which the flood wave moves through the catchment. The analysis of the response time provides information on the time resolution and the spatial density of the networks required for monitoring the storms that generate flash floods.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7583865,climate,europe,flash-flood,floods,hydrology,runoff,storm,water-resources},
number = {1-2}
}The Seasonal Effects of ENSO on European Precipitation: Observational Analysis. Shaman, J. 27(17):6423–6438.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex An analysis and characterization of seasonal changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between ENSO and western European precipitation, as well as atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic and Europe, are presented. Significant ENSO-associated changes in precipitation are evident during the boreal spring and fall seasons, marginal during boreal summer, and absent during boreal winter. The spring and fall precipitation anomalies are accompanied by statistically significant ENSO-related changes in large-scale fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. These seasonal teleconnections appear to be mediated by changes in upper tropospheric conditions along the coast of Europe that project down to the lower troposphere and produce onshore or offshore moisture flux anomalies, depending on the season. Some ENSO-related changes in storm activity are also evident during fall and winter. Analyses during boreal winter reveal little effect of coincident ENSO conditions on either European precipitation or upper tropospheric conditions over Europe.
@article{shamanSeasonalEffectsENSO2014,
title = {The Seasonal Effects of {{ENSO}} on {{European}} Precipitation: Observational Analysis},
author = {Shaman, Jeffrey},
date = {2014-09},
journaltitle = {Journal of Climate},
volume = {27},
pages = {6423--6438},
issn = {0894-8755},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-14-00008.1},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00008.1},
abstract = {An analysis and characterization of seasonal changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between ENSO and western European precipitation, as well as atmospheric conditions over the North Atlantic and Europe, are presented. Significant ENSO-associated changes in precipitation are evident during the boreal spring and fall seasons, marginal during boreal summer, and absent during boreal winter. The spring and fall precipitation anomalies are accompanied by statistically significant ENSO-related changes in large-scale fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. These seasonal teleconnections appear to be mediated by changes in upper tropospheric conditions along the coast of Europe that project down to the lower troposphere and produce onshore or offshore moisture flux anomalies, depending on the season. Some ENSO-related changes in storm activity are also evident during fall and winter. Analyses during boreal winter reveal little effect of coincident ENSO conditions on either European precipitation or upper tropospheric conditions over Europe.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13340631,anomaly-detection,climate,enso,europe,feedback,off-site-effects,precipitation},
number = {17}
}Climate Twins - An Attempt to Quantify Climatological Similarities. Ungar, J., Peters-Anders, J., & Loibl, W. 359:428–436.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex As climate change appears, strategies and actions will be necessary to cope with its effects on environment and society in the coming decades. Current climate conditions can be observed everywhere in the world but future climate conditions can only be estimated through climate simulations which produce huge amounts of quantitative data. This data leads to statements like ” temperature increase is expected to exceed 2.6°C” or similar and remain fuzzy to non-experts in climate research. The Climate Twins application is designed to communicate climate changes in an intuitive and understandable way by showing regions which have now similar climate conditions according to a given Point of Interest (POI) in the future. This paper explains how the application seeks for locations with similar climatological patterns according to the POI. To achieve this goal a method has been developed to quantify similarity between two locations' climate data.
@article{ungarClimateTwinsAttempt2011,
title = {Climate Twins - {{An}} Attempt to Quantify Climatological Similarities},
author = {Ungar, Joachim and Peters-Anders, Jan and Loibl, Wolfgang},
editor = {Hřeb́ıček, Jiř́ı and Schimak, Gerald and Denzer, Ralf},
date = {2011},
journaltitle = {IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology},
volume = {359},
pages = {428--436},
issn = {1868-4238},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-642-22285-6_46},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-22285-6_46},
abstract = {As climate change appears, strategies and actions will be necessary to cope with its effects on environment and society in the coming decades. Current climate conditions can be observed everywhere in the world but future climate conditions can only be estimated through climate simulations which produce huge amounts of quantitative data. This data leads to statements like ” temperature increase is expected to exceed 2.6°C” or similar and remain fuzzy to non-experts in climate research. The Climate Twins application is designed to communicate climate changes in an intuitive and understandable way by showing regions which have now similar climate conditions according to a given Point of Interest (POI) in the future. This paper explains how the application seeks for locations with similar climatological patterns according to the POI. To achieve this goal a method has been developed to quantify similarity between two locations' climate data.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14309428,climate,climate-change,indicators,indices,multiplicity,similarity}
}Anthropocene: The Human Age. Monastersky, R. 519(7542):144–147.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Momentum is building to establish a new geological epoch that recognizes humanity's impact on the planet. But there is fierce debate behind the scenes. [Excerpt] [...] Through mining activities alone, humans move more sediment than all the world's rivers combined. Homo sapiens has also warmed the planet, raised sea levels, eroded the ozone layer and acidified the oceans. [\n] Given the magnitude of these changes, many researchers propose that the Anthropocene represents a new division of geological time. The concept has gained traction, especially in the past few years – and not just among geoscientists. The word has been invoked by archaeologists, historians and even gender-studies researchers; several museums around the world have exhibited art inspired by the Anthropocene; and the media have heartily adopted the idea. ” Welcome to the Anthropocene,” The Economist announced in 2011. [\n] The greeting was a tad premature. Although the term is trending, the Anthropocene is still an amorphous notion – an unofficial name that has yet to be accepted as part of the geological timescale. That may change soon. A committee of researchers is currently hashing out whether to codify the Anthropocene as a formal geological unit, and when to define its starting point. [\n] But critics worry that important arguments against the proposal have been drowned out by popular enthusiasm, driven in part by environmentally minded researchers who want to highlight how destructive humans have become. Some supporters of the Anthropocene idea have even been likened to zealots. ” There's a similarity to certain religious groups who are extremely keen on their religion – to the extent that they think everybody who doesn't practise their religion is some kind of barbarian,” says one geologist who asked not to be named. [\n] The debate has shone a spotlight on the typically unnoticed process by which geologists carve up Earth's 4.5 billion years of history. Normally, decisions about the geological timescale are made solely on the basis of stratigraphy – the evidence contained in layers of rock, ocean sediments, ice cores and other geological deposits. But the issue of the Anthropocene ” is an order of magnitude more complicated than the stratigraphy”, says Jan Zalasiewicz, a geologist at the University of Leicester, UK, and the chair of the Anthropocene Working Group that is evaluating the issue for the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS). [...] [\n] When the Anthropocene Working Group started investigating, it compiled a much longer long list of the changes wrought by humans. Agriculture, construction and the damming of rivers is stripping away sediment at least ten times as fast as the natural forces of erosion. Along some coastlines, the flood of nutrients from fertilizers has created oxygen-poor 'dead zones', and the extra CO2 from fossil-fuel burning has acidified the surface waters of the ocean by 0.1 pH units. The fingerprint of humans is clear in global temperatures, the rate of species extinctions and the loss of Arctic ice. [\n] The group, which includes Crutzen, initially leaned towards his idea of choosing the Industrial Revolution as the beginning of the Anthropocene. But other options were on the table. [\n] Some researchers have argued for a starting time that coincides with an expansion of agriculture and livestock cultivation more than 5,000 years ago4, or a surge in mining more than 3,000 years ago (see 'Humans at the helm'). But neither the Industrial Revolution nor those earlier changes have left unambiguous geological signals of human activity that are synchronous around the globe (see 'Landscape architecture'). [\n] This week in Nature, two researchers propose that a potential marker for the start of the Anthropocene could be a noticeable drop in atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 1570 and 1620, which is recorded in ice cores (see page 171). They link this change to the deaths of some 50 million indigenous people in the Americas, triggered by the arrival of Europeans. In the aftermath, forests took over 65 million hectares of abandoned agricultural fields – a surge of regrowth that reduced global CO2. [\n] In the working group, Zalasiewicz and others have been talking increasingly about another option – using the geological marks left by the atomic age. Between 1945 and 1963, when the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty took effect, nations conducted some 500 above-ground nuclear blasts. Debris from those explosions circled the globe and created an identifiable layer of radioactive elements in sediments. At the same time, humans were making geological impressions in a number of other ways – all part of what has been called the Great Acceleration of the modern world. Plastics started flooding the environment, along with aluminium, artificial fertilizers, concrete and leaded petrol, all of which have left signals in the sedimentary record. [...]
@article{monasterskyAnthropoceneHumanAge2015,
title = {Anthropocene: The Human Age},
author = {Monastersky, Richard},
date = {2015-03},
journaltitle = {Nature},
volume = {519},
pages = {144--147},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/519144a},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/519144a},
abstract = {Momentum is building to establish a new geological epoch that recognizes humanity's impact on the planet. But there is fierce debate behind the scenes.
[Excerpt] [...] Through mining activities alone, humans move more sediment than all the world's rivers combined. Homo sapiens has also warmed the planet, raised sea levels, eroded the ozone layer and acidified the oceans.
[\textbackslash n] Given the magnitude of these changes, many researchers propose that the Anthropocene represents a new division of geological time. The concept has gained traction, especially in the past few years -- and not just among geoscientists. The word has been invoked by archaeologists, historians and even gender-studies researchers; several museums around the world have exhibited art inspired by the Anthropocene; and the media have heartily adopted the idea. ” Welcome to the Anthropocene,” The Economist announced in 2011.
[\textbackslash n] The greeting was a tad premature. Although the term is trending, the Anthropocene is still an amorphous notion -- an unofficial name that has yet to be accepted as part of the geological timescale. That may change soon. A committee of researchers is currently hashing out whether to codify the Anthropocene as a formal geological unit, and when to define its starting point.
[\textbackslash n] But critics worry that important arguments against the proposal have been drowned out by popular enthusiasm, driven in part by environmentally minded researchers who want to highlight how destructive humans have become. Some supporters of the Anthropocene idea have even been likened to zealots. ” There's a similarity to certain religious groups who are extremely keen on their religion -- to the extent that they think everybody who doesn't practise their religion is some kind of barbarian,” says one geologist who asked not to be named.
[\textbackslash n] The debate has shone a spotlight on the typically unnoticed process by which geologists carve up Earth's 4.5 billion years of history. Normally, decisions about the geological timescale are made solely on the basis of stratigraphy -- the evidence contained in layers of rock, ocean sediments, ice cores and other geological deposits. But the issue of the Anthropocene ” is an order of magnitude more complicated than the stratigraphy”, says Jan Zalasiewicz, a geologist at the University of Leicester, UK, and the chair of the Anthropocene Working Group that is evaluating the issue for the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS). [...]
[\textbackslash n] When the Anthropocene Working Group started investigating, it compiled a much longer long list of the changes wrought by humans. Agriculture, construction and the damming of rivers is stripping away sediment at least ten times as fast as the natural forces of erosion. Along some coastlines, the flood of nutrients from fertilizers has created oxygen-poor 'dead zones', and the extra CO2 from fossil-fuel burning has acidified the surface waters of the ocean by 0.1 pH units. The fingerprint of humans is clear in global temperatures, the rate of species extinctions and the loss of Arctic ice.
[\textbackslash n] The group, which includes Crutzen, initially leaned towards his idea of choosing the Industrial Revolution as the beginning of the Anthropocene. But other options were on the table.
[\textbackslash n] Some researchers have argued for a starting time that coincides with an expansion of agriculture and livestock cultivation more than 5,000 years ago4, or a surge in mining more than 3,000 years ago (see 'Humans at the helm'). But neither the Industrial Revolution nor those earlier changes have left unambiguous geological signals of human activity that are synchronous around the globe (see 'Landscape architecture').
[\textbackslash n] This week in Nature, two researchers propose that a potential marker for the start of the Anthropocene could be a noticeable drop in atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 1570 and 1620, which is recorded in ice cores (see page 171). They link this change to the deaths of some 50 million indigenous people in the Americas, triggered by the arrival of Europeans. In the aftermath, forests took over 65 million hectares of abandoned agricultural fields -- a surge of regrowth that reduced global CO2.
[\textbackslash n] In the working group, Zalasiewicz and others have been talking increasingly about another option -- using the geological marks left by the atomic age. Between 1945 and 1963, when the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty took effect, nations conducted some 500 above-ground nuclear blasts. Debris from those explosions circled the globe and created an identifiable layer of radioactive elements in sediments. At the same time, humans were making geological impressions in a number of other ways -- all part of what has been called the Great Acceleration of the modern world. Plastics started flooding the environment, along with aluminium, artificial fertilizers, concrete and leaded petrol, all of which have left signals in the sedimentary record. [...]},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13547930,anthropic-feedback,anthropocene,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,climate,ecology,evolution,featured-publication,long-distance-dispersal,species-distribution},
number = {7542}
}Global and Regional Analysis of Climate and Human Drivers of Wildfire. Aldersley, A., Murray, S. J., & Cornell, S. E. 409(18):3472–3481.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Identifying and quantifying the statistical relationships between climate and anthropogenic drivers of fire is important for global biophysical modelling of wildfire and other Earth system processes. This study used regression tree and random forest analysis on global data for various climatic and human variables to establish their relative importance. The main interactions found at the global scale also apply regionally: greatest wildfire burned area is associated with high temperature ($>~$28~°C), intermediate annual rainfall (350-1100~mm), and prolonged dry periods (which varies by region). However, the regions of highest fire incidence do not show clear and systematic behaviour. Thresholds seen in the regression tree split conditions vary, as do the interplay between climatic and anthropogenic variables, so challenges remain in developing robust predictive insight for the most wildfire-threatened regions. Anthropogenic activities alter the spatial extent of wildfires. Gross domestic product (GDP) density is the most important human predictor variable at the regional scale, and burned area is always greater when GDP density is minimised. South America is identified as a region of concern, as anthropogenic factors (notably land conversions) outweigh climatic drivers of wildfire burned area.
@article{aldersleyGlobalRegionalAnalysis2011,
title = {Global and Regional Analysis of Climate and Human Drivers of Wildfire},
author = {Aldersley, Andrew and Murray, Steven J. and Cornell, Sarah E.},
date = {2011-08},
journaltitle = {Science of The Total Environment},
volume = {409},
pages = {3472--3481},
issn = {0048-9697},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.05.032},
abstract = {Identifying and quantifying the statistical relationships between climate and anthropogenic drivers of fire is important for global biophysical modelling of wildfire and other Earth system processes. This study used regression tree and random forest analysis on global data for various climatic and human variables to establish their relative importance. The main interactions found at the global scale also apply regionally: greatest wildfire burned area is associated with high temperature ({$>~$}28~°C), intermediate annual rainfall (350-1100~mm), and prolonged dry periods (which varies by region). However, the regions of highest fire incidence do not show clear and systematic behaviour. Thresholds seen in the regression tree split conditions vary, as do the interplay between climatic and anthropogenic variables, so challenges remain in developing robust predictive insight for the most wildfire-threatened regions. Anthropogenic activities alter the spatial extent of wildfires. Gross domestic product (GDP) density is the most important human predictor variable at the regional scale, and burned area is always greater when GDP density is minimised. South America is identified as a region of concern, as anthropogenic factors (notably land conversions) outweigh climatic drivers of wildfire burned area.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-9491913,~to-add-doi-URL,agricultural-land,anthropic-feedback,anthropogenic-impacts,climate,global-scale,population-density,precipitation,regional-scale,temperature,wildfires},
number = {18}
}Changes in biomass burning mark the onset of an ENSO-influenced climate regime at 42°S in southwest Tasmania, Australia. Fletcher, M., Benson, A., Heijnis, H., Gadd, P. S., Cwynar, L. C., & Rees, A. B. H. Quaternary Science Reviews, 122:222–232, August.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex We use macroscopic charcoal and sediment geochemistry analysis of two proximal upper montane lakes located at 42°S in southwest Tasmania, Australia, to test the role of the southern hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in governing the climate of this sector of the southern mid-to high-latitudes. Inter-annual climate anomalies in the study area are driven by changes in both ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM - an index that describes seasonal to decadal shifts in the SWW), making it an ideal location to test assumptions about the varying influence of the SWW and ENSO, two important components of the global climate system, through time. We find multi-millennial scale trends in fire activity that are remarkably consistent with trends in hydroclimate reconstructed at the same latitude in southern South America, providing empirical support for the notion of zonally symmetric changes in the SWW governing the climate at this latitude in the Southern Hemisphere between 12 and 5 cal ka BP. A transition from multi-millennial scale to sub-millennial scale trends in fire activity occurs after ca 5 cal ka BP in concert with the onset of high frequency and amplitude ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean region. We conclude that the onset of sub-millennial scale trends in ENSO drove changes in fire activity in our study region over the last ca 5 cal ka. Geochemical data reveals divergent local impacts at the two study sites in response to these major climate transitions that are related to local topography and geography.
@article{fletcher_changes_nodate,
title = {Changes in biomass burning mark the onset of an {ENSO}-influenced climate regime at 42°{S} in southwest {Tasmania}, {Australia}},
volume = {122},
issn = {0277-3791},
url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379115001894},
doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.002},
abstract = {We use macroscopic charcoal and sediment geochemistry analysis of two proximal upper montane lakes located at 42°S in southwest Tasmania, Australia, to test the role of the southern hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in governing the climate of this sector of the southern mid-to high-latitudes. Inter-annual climate anomalies in the study area are driven by changes in both ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM - an index that describes seasonal to decadal shifts in the SWW), making it an ideal location to test assumptions about the varying influence of the SWW and ENSO, two important components of the global climate system, through time. We find multi-millennial scale trends in fire activity that are remarkably consistent with trends in hydroclimate reconstructed at the same latitude in southern South America, providing empirical support for the notion of zonally symmetric changes in the SWW governing the climate at this latitude in the Southern Hemisphere between 12 and 5 cal ka BP. A transition from multi-millennial scale to sub-millennial scale trends in fire activity occurs after ca 5 cal ka BP in concert with the onset of high frequency and amplitude ENSO variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean region. We conclude that the onset of sub-millennial scale trends in ENSO drove changes in fire activity in our study region over the last ca 5 cal ka. Geochemical data reveals divergent local impacts at the two study sites in response to these major climate transitions that are related to local topography and geography.},
journal = {Quaternary Science Reviews},
author = {Fletcher, Michael-Shawn and Benson, Alexa and Heijnis, Hendrik and Gadd, Patricia S. and Cwynar, Les C. and Rees, Andrew B. H.},
month = aug,
keywords = {Climate, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Fire, Geochemistry, Holocene, Southern Hemisphere, Southern hemisphere westerly winds (SWW), Tasmania},
pages = {222--232},
}Targeted Carbon Conservation at National Scales with High-Resolution Monitoring. Asner, G. P., Knapp, D. E., Martin, R. E., Tupayachi, R., Anderson, C. B., Mascaro, J., Sinca, F., Chadwick, K. D., Higgins, M., Farfan, W., Llactayo, W., & Silman, M. R. 111(47):E5016-E5022.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Significance] Land use is a principal driver of carbon emissions, either directly through land change processes such as deforestation or indirectly via transportation and industries supporting natural resource use. To minimize the effects of land use on the climate system, natural ecosystems are needed to offset gross emissions through carbon sequestration. Managing this critically important service must be achieved tactically if it is to be cost-effective. We have developed a high-resolution carbon mapping approach that can identify biogeographically explicit targets for carbon storage enhancement among all landholders within a country. Applying our approach to Perú reveals carbon threats and protections, as well as major opportunities for using ecosystems to sequester carbon. Our approach is scalable to any tropical forest country. [Abstract] Terrestrial carbon conservation can provide critical environmental, social, and climate benefits. Yet, the geographically complex mosaic of threats to, and opportunities for, conserving carbon in landscapes remain largely unresolved at national scales. Using a new high-resolution carbon mapping approach applied to Perú, a megadiverse country undergoing rapid land use change, we found that at least 0.8 Pg of aboveground carbon stocks are at imminent risk of emission from land use activities. Map-based information on the natural controls over carbon density, as well as current ecosystem threats and protections, revealed three biogeographically explicit strategies that fully offset forthcoming land-use emissions. High-resolution carbon mapping affords targeted interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in rapidly developing tropical nations.
@article{asnerTargetedCarbonConservation2014,
title = {Targeted Carbon Conservation at National Scales with High-Resolution Monitoring},
author = {Asner, Gregory P. and Knapp, David E. and Martin, Roberta E. and Tupayachi, Raul and Anderson, Christopher B. and Mascaro, Joseph and Sinca, Felipe and Chadwick, K. Dana and Higgins, Mark and Farfan, William and Llactayo, William and Silman, Miles R.},
date = {2014-11},
journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {111},
pages = {E5016-E5022},
issn = {1091-6490},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1419550111},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1419550111},
abstract = {[Significance]
Land use is a principal driver of carbon emissions, either directly through land change processes such as deforestation or indirectly via transportation and industries supporting natural resource use. To minimize the effects of land use on the climate system, natural ecosystems are needed to offset gross emissions through carbon sequestration. Managing this critically important service must be achieved tactically if it is to be cost-effective. We have developed a high-resolution carbon mapping approach that can identify biogeographically explicit targets for carbon storage enhancement among all landholders within a country. Applying our approach to Perú reveals carbon threats and protections, as well as major opportunities for using ecosystems to sequester carbon. Our approach is scalable to any tropical forest country. [Abstract]
Terrestrial carbon conservation can provide critical environmental, social, and climate benefits. Yet, the geographically complex mosaic of threats to, and opportunities for, conserving carbon in landscapes remain largely unresolved at national scales. Using a new high-resolution carbon mapping approach applied to Perú, a megadiverse country undergoing rapid land use change, we found that at least 0.8 Pg of aboveground carbon stocks are at imminent risk of emission from land use activities. Map-based information on the natural controls over carbon density, as well as current ecosystem threats and protections, revealed three biogeographically explicit strategies that fully offset forthcoming land-use emissions. High-resolution carbon mapping affords targeted interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in rapidly developing tropical nations.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13427624,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-cycle,carbon-emissions,carbon-mitigation,climate,deforestation,land-use,tropical-forests},
number = {47}
}Relationship between Forest Density and Albedo in the Boreal Zone. Lukeš, P., Stenberg, P., & Rautiainen, M. 261-262:74–79.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] We simulated albedo of boreal zone forests using a radiative transfer model. [::] Species composition had a strong impact on forest albedo. [::] Diurnal courses of albedo were related to forest density. [::] The albedos decreased with increasing stand biomass, LAI, and canopy cover. [Abstract] The relationship between albedo and forest areas is complex. Little is known about the driving factors of albedo in the boreal zone. Using a radiative transfer model and an extensive forest inventory database, we simulated albedo of forest stands composed of the most abundant tree species of Fennoscandia - Scots pine, Norway spruce and Silver birch. The physically-based radiative transfer model allowed us to uncouple the driving factors of the forest albedo. We analyzed separately how biomass, canopy cover, and species composition influence the shortwave albedo of a boreal forest. The albedos differed significantly between species and increased with solar zenith angle. The lowest values were observed for spruce stands, followed by pine stands and the highest values were observed for birch stands. Diurnal courses of albedo were tightly related to forest density as quantified by biomass or canopy cover. The albedos generally decreased with increasing stand biomass and canopy cover whereas the sensitivity to solar angle increased as the stands became denser. The sharpest decrease in albedo was observed at low biomass values, after which the albedo remained relative stable. The strength of the relationships was weaker for larger solar zenith angles. [Excerpt: Conclusions] Forest management practices, such as logging patterns or growing monospecific or mixed forests may have a significant influence on the albedo of the boreal biome. However, the influence of the resulting forest structure and species composition on the albedo of these forests has not been studied before using an extensive forest inventory database. In this study, we identified factors driving boreal forest albedo using a theoretical model. We show that species-specific stand albedos and their diurnal courses are tightly linked to forest density. The albedos differed significantly between species with the lowest values being observed for spruce and the highest for birch. From the forest management perspective, our results suggest that an increase in albedo can be achieved by (1) increasing the proportion of birch in conifer-dominated forests and (2) managing forests to have a low stand density throughout the rotation period.
@article{lukesRelationshipForestDensity2013,
title = {Relationship between Forest Density and Albedo in the Boreal Zone},
author = {Lukeš, Petr and Stenberg, Pauline and Rautiainen, Miina},
date = {2013-07},
journaltitle = {Ecological Modelling},
volume = {261-262},
pages = {74--79},
issn = {0304-3800},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.009},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.009},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] We simulated albedo of boreal zone forests using a radiative transfer model. [::] Species composition had a strong impact on forest albedo. [::] Diurnal courses of albedo were related to forest density. [::] The albedos decreased with increasing stand biomass, LAI, and canopy cover.
[Abstract]
The relationship between albedo and forest areas is complex. Little is known about the driving factors of albedo in the boreal zone. Using a radiative transfer model and an extensive forest inventory database, we simulated albedo of forest stands composed of the most abundant tree species of Fennoscandia - Scots pine, Norway spruce and Silver birch. The physically-based radiative transfer model allowed us to uncouple the driving factors of the forest albedo. We analyzed separately how biomass, canopy cover, and species composition influence the shortwave albedo of a boreal forest. The albedos differed significantly between species and increased with solar zenith angle. The lowest values were observed for spruce stands, followed by pine stands and the highest values were observed for birch stands. Diurnal courses of albedo were tightly related to forest density as quantified by biomass or canopy cover. The albedos generally decreased with increasing stand biomass and canopy cover whereas the sensitivity to solar angle increased as the stands became denser. The sharpest decrease in albedo was observed at low biomass values, after which the albedo remained relative stable. The strength of the relationships was weaker for larger solar zenith angles.
[Excerpt: Conclusions]
Forest management practices, such as logging patterns or growing monospecific or mixed forests may have a significant influence on the albedo of the boreal biome. However, the influence of the resulting forest structure and species composition on the albedo of these forests has not been studied before using an extensive forest inventory database. In this study, we identified factors driving boreal forest albedo using a theoretical model. We show that species-specific stand albedos and their diurnal courses are tightly linked to forest density. The albedos differed significantly between species with the lowest values being observed for spruce and the highest for birch. From the forest management perspective, our results suggest that an increase in albedo can be achieved by (1) increasing the proportion of birch in conifer-dominated forests and (2) managing forests to have a low stand density throughout the rotation period.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13928187,~to-add-doi-URL,albedo,anthropic-feedback,boreal-forests,climate,climate-change,forest-resources,species-association,taxon-specific-parameters}
}Structural and Distributional Evaluation of Forest Ecosystems in Turkey. Atalay, I. & Efe, R. 31(1):61–70.
Paper abstract bibtex
Paper abstract bibtex Turkey has very rich ecosystems and habitats in which various types of vegetation communities and fauna are found. These properties of Turkey depend on its geographical position, different climatic region, mountainous topographical conditions and climatic changes occurred during the Pleistocene. Several field works have been conducted during the period of 1975-2008. The field observations and analyses of data reveal that Turkey's forests can be divided into six main forest ecosystems (Black sea region, Marmara transitional region, Mediterranean region, Mediterranean transitional region, Inner and Eastern anatolian region, Southern anatolian region) in terms of floristic composition, forest productivity and climatic properties.
@article{atalayStructuralDistributionalEvaluation2010,
title = {Structural and Distributional Evaluation of Forest Ecosystems in {{Turkey}}},
author = {Atalay, Ibrahim and Efe, Recep},
date = {2010},
journaltitle = {Journal of Environmental Biology},
volume = {31},
pages = {61--70},
issn = {2394-0379},
url = {http://www.jeb.co.in/journal_issues/201001_jan10/paper_07.pdf},
abstract = {Turkey has very rich ecosystems and habitats in which various types of vegetation communities and fauna are found. These properties of Turkey depend on its geographical position, different climatic region, mountainous topographical conditions and climatic changes occurred during the Pleistocene. Several field works have been conducted during the period of 1975-2008. The field observations and analyses of data reveal that Turkey's forests can be divided into six main forest ecosystems (Black sea region, Marmara transitional region, Mediterranean region, Mediterranean transitional region, Inner and Eastern anatolian region, Southern anatolian region) in terms of floristic composition, forest productivity and climatic properties.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13604262,climate,ecological-zones,ecosystem,forest-resources,species-distribution,turkey},
number = {1}
}Climate Control of Terrestrial Carbon Exchange across Biomes and Continents. Yi, C., Ricciuto, D., Li, R., Wolbeck, J., Xu, X., Nilsson, M., Aires, L., Albertson, J. D., Ammann, C., Arain, M. A., de Araujo, A. C., Aubinet, M., Aurela, M., Barcza, Z., Barr, A., Berbigier, P., Beringer, J., Bernhofer, C., Black, A. T., Bolstad, P. V., Bosveld, F. C., Broadmeadow, M. S. J., Buchmann, N., Burns, S. P., Cellier, P., Chen, J., Chen, J., Ciais, P., Clement, R., Cook, B. D., Curtis, P. S., Dail, D. B., Dellwik, E., Delpierre, N., Desai, A. R., Dore, S., Dragoni, D., Drake, B. G., Dufrêne, E., Dunn, A., Elbers, J., Eugster, W., Falk, M., Feigenwinter, C., Flanagan, L. B., Foken, T., Frank, J., Fuhrer, J., Gianelle, D., Goldstein, A., Goulden, M., Granier, A., Grünwald, T., Gu, L., Guo, H., Hammerle, A., Han, S., Hanan, N. P., Haszpra, L., Heinesch, B., Helfter, C., Hendriks, D., Hutley, L. B., Ibrom, A., Jacobs, C., Johansson, T., Jongen, M., Katul, G., Kiely, G., Klumpp, K., Knohl, A., Kolb, T., Kutsch, W. L., Lafleur, P., Laurila, T., Leuning, R., Lindroth, A., Liu, H., Loubet, B., Manca, G., Marek, M., Margolis, H. A., Martin, T. A., Massman, W. J., Matamala, R., Matteucci, G., McCaughey, H., Merbold, L., Meyers, T., Migliavacca, M., Miglietta, F., Misson, L., Mölder, M., Moncrieff, J., Monson, R. K., Montagnani, L., Montes-Helu, M., Moors, E., Moureaux, C., Mukelabai, M. M., Munger, J. W., Myklebust, M., Nagy, Z., Noormets, A., Oechel, W., Oren, R., Pallardy, S. G., Paw, K. T., Pereira, J. S., Pilegaard, K., Pintér, K., Pio, C., Pita, G., Powell, T. L., Rambal, S., Randerson, J. T., von Randow, C., Rebmann, C., Rinne, J., Rossi, F., Roulet, N., Ryel, R. J., Sagerfors, J., Saigusa, N., Sanz, M. J., Mugnozza, G., Schmid, H. P., Seufert, G., Siqueira, M., Soussana, J., Starr, G., Sutton, M. A., Tenhunen, J., Tuba, Z., Tuovinen, J., Valentini, R., Vogel, C. S., Wang, J., Wang, S., Wang, W., Welp, L. R., Wen, X., Wharton, S., Wilkinson, M., Williams, C. A., Wohlfahrt, G., Yamamoto, S., Yu, G., Zampedri, R., Zhao, B., & Zhao, X. 5(3):034007+.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes and continents are lacking. Here we present data describing the relationships between net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) and climate factors as measured using the eddy covariance method at 125 unique sites in various ecosystems over six continents with a total of 559 site-years. We find that NEE observed at eddy covariance sites is (1)~a strong function of mean annual temperature at mid-~and high-latitudes, (2)~a strong function of dryness at mid-~and low-latitudes, and (3)~a function of both temperature and dryness around the mid-latitudinal belt (45°N). The sensitivity of NEE to mean annual temperature breaks down at ̃ 16\,°C (a threshold value of mean annual temperature), above which no further increase of CO 2 uptake with temperature was observed and dryness influence overrules temperature influence.
@article{yiClimateControlTerrestrial2010,
title = {Climate Control of Terrestrial Carbon Exchange across Biomes and Continents},
author = {Yi, Chuixiang and Ricciuto, Daniel and Li, Runze and Wolbeck, John and Xu, Xiyan and Nilsson, Mats and Aires, Luis and Albertson, John D. and Ammann, Christof and Arain, M. Altaf and de Araujo, Alessandro C. and Aubinet, Marc and Aurela, Mika and Barcza, Zoltán and Barr, Alan and Berbigier, Paul and Beringer, Jason and Bernhofer, Christian and Black, Andrew T. and Bolstad, Paul V. and Bosveld, Fred C. and Broadmeadow, Mark S. J. and Buchmann, Nina and Burns, Sean P. and Cellier, Pierre and Chen, Jingming and Chen, Jiquan and Ciais, Philippe and Clement, Robert and Cook, Bruce D. and Curtis, Peter S. and Dail, D. Bryan and Dellwik, Ebba and Delpierre, Nicolas and Desai, Ankur R. and Dore, Sabina and Dragoni, Danilo and Drake, Bert G. and Dufrêne, Eric and Dunn, Allison and Elbers, Jan and Eugster, Werner and Falk, Matthias and Feigenwinter, Christian and Flanagan, Lawrence B. and Foken, Thomas and Frank, John and Fuhrer, Juerg and Gianelle, Damiano and Goldstein, Allen and Goulden, Mike and Granier, Andre and Grünwald, Thomas and Gu, Lianhong and Guo, Haiqiang and Hammerle, Albin and Han, Shijie and Hanan, Niall P. and Haszpra, László and Heinesch, Bernard and Helfter, Carole and Hendriks, Dimmie and Hutley, Lindsay B. and Ibrom, Andreas and Jacobs, Cor and Johansson, Torbjörn and Jongen, Marjan and Katul, Gabriel and Kiely, Gerard and Klumpp, Katja and Knohl, Alexander and Kolb, Thomas and Kutsch, Werner L. and Lafleur, Peter and Laurila, Tuomas and Leuning, Ray and Lindroth, Anders and Liu, Heping and Loubet, Benjamin and Manca, Giovanni and Marek, Michal and Margolis, Hank A. and Martin, Timothy A. and Massman, William J. and Matamala, Roser and Matteucci, Giorgio and McCaughey, Harry and Merbold, Lutz and Meyers, Tilden and Migliavacca, Mirco and Miglietta, Franco and Misson, Laurent and Mölder, Meelis and Moncrieff, John and Monson, Russell K. and Montagnani, Leonardo and Montes-Helu, Mario and Moors, Eddy and Moureaux, Christine and Mukelabai, Mukufute M. and Munger, J. William and Myklebust, May and Nagy, Zoltán and Noormets, Asko and Oechel, Walter and Oren, Ram and Pallardy, Stephen G. and Paw, Kyaw Tha and Pereira, João S. and Pilegaard, Kim and Pintér, Krisztina and Pio, Casimiro and Pita, Gabriel and Powell, Thomas L. and Rambal, Serge and Randerson, James T. and von Randow, Celso and Rebmann, Corinna and Rinne, Janne and Rossi, Federica and Roulet, Nigel and Ryel, Ronald J. and Sagerfors, Jorgen and Saigusa, Nobuko and Sanz, Maŕıa J. and Mugnozza, Giuseppe-Scarascia and Schmid, Hans P. and Seufert, Guenther and Siqueira, Mario and Soussana, Jean-François and Starr, Gregory and Sutton, Mark A. and Tenhunen, John and Tuba, Zoltán and Tuovinen, Juha-Pekka and Valentini, Riccardo and Vogel, Christoph S. and Wang, Jingxin and Wang, Shaoqiang and Wang, Weiguo and Welp, Lisa R. and Wen, Xuefa and Wharton, Sonia and Wilkinson, Matthew and Williams, Christopher A. and Wohlfahrt, Georg and Yamamoto, Susumu and Yu, Guirui and Zampedri, Roberto and Zhao, Bin and Zhao, Xinquan},
date = {2010-07},
journaltitle = {Environmental Research Letters},
volume = {5},
pages = {034007+},
issn = {1748-9326},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034007},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034007},
abstract = {Understanding the relationships between climate and carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems is critical to predict future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide because of the potential accelerating effects of positive climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. However, directly observed relationships between climate and terrestrial CO 2 exchange with the atmosphere across biomes and continents are lacking. Here we present data describing the relationships between net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) and climate factors as measured using the eddy covariance method at 125 unique sites in various ecosystems over six continents with a total of 559 site-years. We find that NEE observed at eddy covariance sites is (1)~a strong function of mean annual temperature at mid-~and high-latitudes, (2)~a strong function of dryness at mid-~and low-latitudes, and (3)~a function of both temperature and dryness around the mid-latitudinal belt (45°N). The sensitivity of NEE to mean annual temperature breaks down at ̃ 16\,°C (a threshold value of mean annual temperature), above which no further increase of CO 2 uptake with temperature was observed and dryness influence overrules temperature influence.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13112611,carbon-cycle,climate,ecosystem,global-scale,multiauthor,precipitation,temperature},
number = {3},
options = {useprefix=true}
}Structural Factors Driving Boreal Forest Albedo in Finland. Kuusinen, N., Stenberg, P., Korhonen, L., Rautiainen, M., & Tomppo, E. 175:43–51.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] Analyzed factors driving fine spatial resolution changes in boreal forest albedo. [::] Based on field plot measurements, ALS data and albedos from Landsat-5 TM data. [::] Tree species, forest structure and understory affected albedo. [::] The dependency of albedo on forest structural variables was species-specific. [::] At high volumes albedo saturated and was mainly governed by tree species. [Abstract] Understanding the influence of forest structure on forest albedo, and thus on the energy exchange between the forest and the atmosphere, is urgently needed in areas with large forest cover and active forest management. Fine resolution albedo retrievals enable quantifying the relationships between forest variables and albedo also in patchy landscapes, such as in the managed forests in Fennoscandia. In this study, field plot data, airborne laser scanning (ALS) data and high resolution satellite albedo retrievals from Landsat were used to investigate the main factors influencing forest albedo in Central Finland in midsummer. Tree species, forest structure and understory (ground) vegetation composition all influenced forest albedo. The tree species-specific models were estimated on a subpixel scale by utilizing information on the proportions of each species within a plot. Tree species considerably improved the albedo prediction when added to a model containing only a structural variable, whereas a further addition of the site fertility class as a proxy of understory vegetation composition only slightly improved the model. Albedo decreased with increasing volume of growing stock, but the decrease leveled off at high volumes. The albedo of plots with high volume was instead mainly governed by tree species and was the lowest for Norway spruce, intermediate for Scots pine and highest for broadleaved species. Norway spruce albedo decreased almost linearly with increasing mean tree height. ALS-derived canopy cover explained fairly well the variation in albedo in the visible region, but the total shortwave albedo was better predicted by ALS-derived tree height. [Excerpt: Conclusions] Detecting the factors driving shortwave albedo change in boreal forests is important for assessing the influence of forest management actions on climate. High resolution satellite albedo data were used in this study to improve the spatial match of forest variables and albedo data in a patchy landscape compared to the use of coarse spatial resolution satellite albedos. Unmixing analysis was used to estimate species-specific relationships between forest variables and albedo. The coniferous, particularly spruce, albedo decreased almost linearly with increasing mean tree height. As the increase in height slowed down as the volume of growing stock increased, the decrease of albedo with increasing volume saturated at higher volumes. The albedo of spruce was higher than that of pine in the beginning of the rotation, but after the volume of growing stock had reached approximately 70 m3ha- 1 the reverse was true. The higher albedo for young spruce compared to young pine forests is at least partly explained by the on average higher site fertility and consequent differences in understory vegetation and site preparation. Broadleaved tree species had on average clearly higher albedo than coniferous species. For example, in stands with growing stock of 300 m3ha- 1, the broadleaved albedo was 0.038 units higher than pine and 0.053 units higher than spruce albedo. The results indicate that at average to large volumes of growing stock, moderate thinnings or selection cuttings might not have a remarkable effect on albedo, and the choice of tree species together with consideration of the rotation length would be the simplest ways to influence albedo through forest management. There are, however, limitations to the choice of tree species, understory vegetation, and stand structure, and therefore on the possibilities of modifying forest albedo caused by, for example, site fertility and geographical location. The simple models used here were not able to explain all the variation in forest albedo. This is not a surprise considering the possible error sources and the structural variability (e.g. grouping of trees, understory trees) in forest stands that could not be described by the used mean attributes. However, information on the effects of the commonly measured forest inventory variables on albedo is needed for practical purposes, such as for the evaluation of the influence of different management options on albedo and the subsequent decision making.
@article{kuusinenStructuralFactorsDriving2016,
title = {Structural Factors Driving Boreal Forest Albedo in {{Finland}}},
author = {Kuusinen, Nea and Stenberg, Pauline and Korhonen, Lauri and Rautiainen, Miina and Tomppo, Erkki},
date = {2016-03},
journaltitle = {Remote Sensing of Environment},
volume = {175},
pages = {43--51},
issn = {0034-4257},
doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2015.12.035},
url = {http://mfkp.org/INRMM/article/13928353},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] Analyzed factors driving fine spatial resolution changes in boreal forest albedo. [::] Based on field plot measurements, ALS data and albedos from Landsat-5 TM data. [::] Tree species, forest structure and understory affected albedo. [::] The dependency of albedo on forest structural variables was species-specific. [::] At high volumes albedo saturated and was mainly governed by tree species.
[Abstract]
Understanding the influence of forest structure on forest albedo, and thus on the energy exchange between the forest and the atmosphere, is urgently needed in areas with large forest cover and active forest management. Fine resolution albedo retrievals enable quantifying the relationships between forest variables and albedo also in patchy landscapes, such as in the managed forests in Fennoscandia. In this study, field plot data, airborne laser scanning (ALS) data and high resolution satellite albedo retrievals from Landsat were used to investigate the main factors influencing forest albedo in Central Finland in midsummer. Tree species, forest structure and understory (ground) vegetation composition all influenced forest albedo. The tree species-specific models were estimated on a subpixel scale by utilizing information on the proportions of each species within a plot. Tree species considerably improved the albedo prediction when added to a model containing only a structural variable, whereas a further addition of the site fertility class as a proxy of understory vegetation composition only slightly improved the model. Albedo decreased with increasing volume of growing stock, but the decrease leveled off at high volumes. The albedo of plots with high volume was instead mainly governed by tree species and was the lowest for Norway spruce, intermediate for Scots pine and highest for broadleaved species. Norway spruce albedo decreased almost linearly with increasing mean tree height. ALS-derived canopy cover explained fairly well the variation in albedo in the visible region, but the total shortwave albedo was better predicted by ALS-derived tree height.
[Excerpt: Conclusions]
Detecting the factors driving shortwave albedo change in boreal forests is important for assessing the influence of forest management actions on climate. High resolution satellite albedo data were used in this study to improve the spatial match of forest variables and albedo data in a patchy landscape compared to the use of coarse spatial resolution satellite albedos. Unmixing analysis was used to estimate species-specific relationships between forest variables and albedo. The coniferous, particularly spruce, albedo decreased almost linearly with increasing mean tree height. As the increase in height slowed down as the volume of growing stock increased, the decrease of albedo with increasing volume saturated at higher volumes. The albedo of spruce was higher than that of pine in the beginning of the rotation, but after the volume of growing stock had reached approximately 70 m3ha- 1 the reverse was true. The higher albedo for young spruce compared to young pine forests is at least partly explained by the on average higher site fertility and consequent differences in understory vegetation and site preparation. Broadleaved tree species had on average clearly higher albedo than coniferous species. For example, in stands with growing stock of 300 m3ha- 1, the broadleaved albedo was 0.038 units higher than pine and 0.053 units higher than spruce albedo. The results indicate that at average to large volumes of growing stock, moderate thinnings or selection cuttings might not have a remarkable effect on albedo, and the choice of tree species together with consideration of the rotation length would be the simplest ways to influence albedo through forest management. There are, however, limitations to the choice of tree species, understory vegetation, and stand structure, and therefore on the possibilities of modifying forest albedo caused by, for example, site fertility and geographical location. The simple models used here were not able to explain all the variation in forest albedo. This is not a surprise considering the possible error sources and the structural variability (e.g. grouping of trees, understory trees) in forest stands that could not be described by the used mean attributes. However, information on the effects of the commonly measured forest inventory variables on albedo is needed for practical purposes, such as for the evaluation of the influence of different management options on albedo and the subsequent decision making.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13928353,~to-add-doi-URL,albedo,anthropic-feedback,boreal-forests,climate,feedback,finland,forest-management,forest-resources,ground-vegetation,tree-species,understorey}
}Wildland Fire Emissions, Carbon, and Climate: Science Overview and Knowledge Needs. Sommers, W. T., Loehman, R. A., & Hardy, C. C. 317:1–8.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex [Highlights] [::] Wildland fires have influenced the global carbon cycle for ∼420 million years. [::] Fire moves carbon among terrestrial and atmospheric pools. [::] Fires emit carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon and other aerosols. [::] Climate change alters fire regimes, potentially increasing wildfire emissions. [::] The global carbon cycle accounting should include wildland fire emissions. [Abstract] Wildland fires have influenced the global carbon cycle for ∼420 million years of Earth history, interacting with climate to define vegetation characteristics and distributions, trigger abrupt ecosystem shifts, and move carbon among terrestrial and atmospheric pools. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant driver of ongoing climate change and the principal emissions component of wildland fires, while black carbon and other aerosols found in fire emissions contribute to uncertainties in climate projections. Fire emissions research to date has been focused on developing knowledge for air pollution regulatory needs and for assessing global climate impacts. Quantifying wildland fire emissions is difficult because their amount and chemical composition vary greatly among fires depending on the amount and type of combusted fuel, its structure, arrangement, chemistry, and condition, and meteorological conditions during the fire. Prediction of potential future wildland fire emissions requires integration of complex interactions of climate, fire, and vegetation; e.g., inference about the direct effects of climate changes on vegetation (fuel) distribution, amount, and condition; direct effects on fire occurrence, behavior, and effects; and feedbacks of altered fire regimes to vegetation and the climate system. Proposed climate change mitigation strategies include management of forests for increased carbon sequestration, and because wildland fires are a key component of the carbon cycle, fire ecology, behavior, and fire effects must be accounted for in these strategies. An understanding of the complex relationships and feedbacks among climate, fire regimes, and fire emissions is needed to account for the importance of fire in the carbon cycle and wildfire and carbon feedbacks to the global climate system. Fire ecology and fire emissions science is thus a necessary component for adaptively managing landscapes and for accurately assessing the long-term effectiveness of carbon sequestration projects. This overview for a special issue on wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate summarizes eight companion papers that describe the current state of knowledge, critical knowledge gaps, and importance of fire emissions for global climate and terrestrial carbon cycling. The goal is to foster understanding of complex fire emission system dynamics and feedbacks.
@article{sommersWildlandFireEmissions2014,
title = {Wildland Fire Emissions, Carbon, and Climate: Science Overview and Knowledge Needs},
author = {Sommers, William T. and Loehman, Rachel A. and Hardy, Colin C.},
date = {2014-04},
journaltitle = {Forest Ecology and Management},
volume = {317},
pages = {1--8},
issn = {0378-1127},
doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.014},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.12.014},
abstract = {[Highlights]
[::] Wildland fires have influenced the global carbon cycle for ∼420 million years. [::] Fire moves carbon among terrestrial and atmospheric pools. [::] Fires emit carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon and other aerosols. [::] Climate change alters fire regimes, potentially increasing wildfire emissions. [::] The global carbon cycle accounting should include wildland fire emissions.
[Abstract]
Wildland fires have influenced the global carbon cycle for ∼420 million years of Earth history, interacting with climate to define vegetation characteristics and distributions, trigger abrupt ecosystem shifts, and move carbon among terrestrial and atmospheric pools. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant driver of ongoing climate change and the principal emissions component of wildland fires, while black carbon and other aerosols found in fire emissions contribute to uncertainties in climate projections. Fire emissions research to date has been focused on developing knowledge for air pollution regulatory needs and for assessing global climate impacts. Quantifying wildland fire emissions is difficult because their amount and chemical composition vary greatly among fires depending on the amount and type of combusted fuel, its structure, arrangement, chemistry, and condition, and meteorological conditions during the fire. Prediction of potential future wildland fire emissions requires integration of complex interactions of climate, fire, and vegetation; e.g., inference about the direct effects of climate changes on vegetation (fuel) distribution, amount, and condition; direct effects on fire occurrence, behavior, and effects; and feedbacks of altered fire regimes to vegetation and the climate system. Proposed climate change mitigation strategies include management of forests for increased carbon sequestration, and because wildland fires are a key component of the carbon cycle, fire ecology, behavior, and fire effects must be accounted for in these strategies. An understanding of the complex relationships and feedbacks among climate, fire regimes, and fire emissions is needed to account for the importance of fire in the carbon cycle and wildfire and carbon feedbacks to the global climate system. Fire ecology and fire emissions science is thus a necessary component for adaptively managing landscapes and for accurately assessing the long-term effectiveness of carbon sequestration projects. This overview for a special issue on wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate summarizes eight companion papers that describe the current state of knowledge, critical knowledge gaps, and importance of fire emissions for global climate and terrestrial carbon cycling. The goal is to foster understanding of complex fire emission system dynamics and feedbacks.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14214532,~to-add-doi-URL,carbon-cycle,carbon-emissions,climate,climate-change,fire-emissions,wildfires}
}Predicting Wildfires. Andrews, P., Finney, M., & Fischetti, M. 297(2):46–55.
Paper doi abstract bibtex
Paper doi abstract bibtex The number of catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. has been steadily rising. The nation has spent more than \$1 billion annually to suppress such fires in eight of the past 10 years. In 2005 a record 8.7 million acres burned, only to be succeeded by 9.9 million acres in 2006. And this year is off to a furious start. To a great extent, the increase in fires stems from a buildup of excess fuel, particularly deadwood and underbrush. Forests harbor more fuel than ever in large part because for decades, land management agencies, including the U.S. Forest Service, have followed a policy of trying to quickly put out every fire that starts. Fires, however, can clear out debris, preventing material from accumulating across wide areas and feeding extremely large, intense fires that become impossible to fight. Even in the absence of such a policy, firefighters find themselves compelled to combat many blazes because people continue to build homes further into wildlands, and those structures require protection. Exacerbating the problem, spring snowmelts have been occurring earlier, extending the number of weeks every year when forests are exposed and dangerously dry.
@article{andrewsPredictingWildfires2007,
title = {Predicting {{Wildfires}}},
author = {Andrews, Patricia and Finney, Mark and Fischetti, Mark},
date = {2007-08},
journaltitle = {Scientific American},
volume = {297},
pages = {46--55},
issn = {0036-8733},
doi = {10.1038/scientificamerican0807-46},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/scientificamerican0807-46},
abstract = {The number of catastrophic wildfires in the U.S. has been steadily rising. The nation has spent more than \$1 billion annually to suppress such fires in eight of the past 10 years. In 2005 a record 8.7 million acres burned, only to be succeeded by 9.9 million acres in 2006. And this year is off to a furious start. To a great extent, the increase in fires stems from a buildup of excess fuel, particularly deadwood and underbrush. Forests harbor more fuel than ever in large part because for decades, land management agencies, including the U.S. Forest Service, have followed a policy of trying to quickly put out every fire that starts. Fires, however, can clear out debris, preventing material from accumulating across wide areas and feeding extremely large, intense fires that become impossible to fight. Even in the absence of such a policy, firefighters find themselves compelled to combat many blazes because people continue to build homes further into wildlands, and those structures require protection. Exacerbating the problem, spring snowmelts have been occurring earlier, extending the number of weeks every year when forests are exposed and dangerously dry.},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12131831,climate,climate-projections,data-integration,ecosystem,emergency-events,environmental-modelling,integrated-modelling,integration-techniques,modelling,wildfires},
number = {2}
}