Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{ritchie_defining_2018,
	title = {Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity},
	volume = {13},
	issn = {1748-9326},
	url = {http://stacks.iop.org/1748-9326/13/i=2/a=024012},
	doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aaa494},
	abstract = {Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k -means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2018-02-10},
	journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
	author = {Ritchie, Justin and Dowlatabadi, Hadi},
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {collapse, climate, scenarios},
	pages = {024012},
	file = {Ritchie and Dowlatabadi - 2018 - Defining climate change scenario characteristics w.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\3RXV69NN\\Ritchie and Dowlatabadi - 2018 - Defining climate change scenario characteristics w.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{huss_global-scale_2018,
	title = {Global-scale hydrological response to future glacier mass loss},
	volume = {8},
	copyright = {2018 The Author(s)},
	issn = {1758-6798},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-017-0049-x},
	doi = {10.1038/s41558-017-0049-x},
	abstract = {The future of glaciers and associated runoff is projected for 56 large drainage basins globally, with glacier wastage impacting on runoff and water resources even in basins with limited glacier cover.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2018-02-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Huss, Matthias and Hock, Regine},
	month = feb,
	year = {2018},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, water},
	pages = {135--140},
	file = {Huss and Hock - 2018 - Global-scale hydrological response to future glaci.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\FA7VCIWR\\Huss and Hock - 2018 - Global-scale hydrological response to future glaci.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{feiDivergenceSpeciesResponses2017,
  title = {Divergence of Species Responses to Climate Change},
  author = {Fei, Songlin and Desprez, Johanna M. and Potter, Kevin M. and Jo, Insu and Knott, Jonathan A. and Oswalt, Christopher M.},
  year = {2017},
  month = may,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {e1603055+},
  issn = {2375-2548},
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1603055},
  abstract = {Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impacts are less understood. We analyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more tree species have experienced a westward shift (73\,\%) than a poleward shift (62\,\%) in their abundance, a trend that is stronger for saplings than adult trees. The observed shifts are primarily due to the changes of subpopulation abundances in the leading edges and are significantly associated with changes in moisture availability and successional processes. These spatial shifts are associated with species that have similar traits (drought tolerance, wood density, and seed weight) and evolutionary histories (most angiosperms shifted westward and most gymnosperms shifted poleward). Our results indicate that changes in moisture availability have stronger near-term impacts on vegetation dynamics than changes in temperature. The divergent responses to climate change by trait- and phylogenetic-specific groups could lead to changes in composition of forest ecosystems, putting the resilience and sustainability of various forest ecosystems in question.},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14362048,array-of-factors,climate-change,climatic-niche-shift,complexity,forest-resources,multiplicity,non-linearity,species-distribution,united-states},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14362048},
  number = {5}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{ripple_world_2017,
	title = {World {Scientists}’ {Warning} to {Humanity}: {A} {Second} {Notice}},
	shorttitle = {World {Scientists}’ {Warning} to {Humanity}},
	url = {https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/doi/10.1093/biosci/bix125/4605229},
	doi = {10.1093/biosci/bix125},
	abstract = {© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com...Twenty-five years ago, the Union of Concerned Scientists and more than 1700 independent scientists, including the majority of living Nobel laureates in the sciences, penned the 1992 “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity” (see supplemental file S1). These concerned professionals called on humankind to curtail environmental destruction and cautioned that “a great change in our stewardship of the Earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided.” In their manifesto, they showed that humans were on a collision course with the natural world. They expressed concern about current, impending, or potential damage on planet Earth involving ozone depletion, freshwater availability, marine life depletion, ocean dead zones, forest loss, biodiversity destruction, climate change, and continued human population growth....},
	urldate = {2017-11-13},
	journal = {BioScience},
	author = {Ripple, William J. and Wolf, Christopher and Newsome, Thomas M. and Galetti, Mauro and Alamgir, Mohammed and Crist, Eileen and Mahmoud, Mahmoud I. and Laurance, William F.},
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {collapse, limits-to-growth},
	file = {Ripple et al. - 2017 - World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity A Second No.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\SANUZU3V\\Ripple et al. - 2017 - World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity A Second No.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{ganju_spatially_2017,
	title = {Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {2041-1723},
	shorttitle = {Spatially integrative metrics reveal hidden vulnerability of microtidal salt marshes},
	url = {://WOS:000392407700001},
	doi = {10.1038/ncomms14156},
	abstract = {Salt marshes are valued for their ecosystem services, and their vulnerability is typically assessed through biotic and abiotic measurements at individual points on the landscape. However, lateral erosion can lead to rapid marsh loss as marshes build vertically. Marsh sediment budgets represent a spatially integrated measure of competing constructive and destructive forces: a sediment surplus may result in vertical growth and/or lateral expansion, while a sediment deficit may result in drowning and/or lateral contraction. Here we show that sediment budgets of eight microtidal marsh complexes consistently scale with areal unvegetated/vegetated marsh ratios (UVVR) suggesting these metrics are broadly applicable indicators of microtidal marsh vulnerability. All sites are exhibiting a sediment deficit, with half the sites having projected lifespans of less than 350 years at current rates of sea-level rise and sediment availability. These results demonstrate that open-water conversion and sediment deficits are holistic and sensitive indicators of salt marsh vulnerability.},
	language = {English},
	journal = {Nature Communications},
	author = {Ganju, N. K. and Defne, Z. and Kirwan, M. L. and Fagherazzi, S. and D'Alpaos, A. and Carniello, L.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2017},
	keywords = {vegetation, resilience, accretion, sediment transport, sea-level rise, flux, bay, Science \& Technology - Other Topics, collapse, conceptual-model, tidal wetland stability},
	pages = {7}
}

@article{andersonTroubleNegativeEmissions2016,
  title = {The Trouble with Negative Emissions},
  author = {Anderson, Kevin and Peters, Glen},
  year = {2016},
  month = oct,
  volume = {354},
  pages = {182--183},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aah4567},
  abstract = {In December 2015, member states of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2\textdegree C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\textdegree C. The Paris Agreement requires that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. Because some nonzero sources are unavoidable, this leads to the abstract concept of '' negative emissions,'' the removal of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through technical means. The Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) informing policy-makers assume the large-scale use of negative-emission technologies. If we rely on these and they are not deployed or are unsuccessful at removing CO2 from the atmosphere at the levels assumed, society will be locked into a high-temperature pathway.

[Excerpt] [...] The promise of future and cost-optimal negative-emission technologies is more politically appealing than the prospect of developing policies to deliver rapid and deep mitigation now. If negative-emission technologies do indeed follow the idealized, rapid, and successful deployment assumed in the models, then any reduction in near-term mitigation caused by the appeal of negative emissions will likely lead to only a small and temporary overshoot of the Paris temperature goals. In stark contrast, if the many reservations increasingly voiced about negative-emission technologies [...] turn out to be valid, the weakening of near-term mitigation and the failure of future negative-emission technologies will be a prelude to rapid temperature rises reminiscent of the 4\textdegree C '' business as usual'' pathway feared before the Paris Agreement.

[] Negative-emission technologies are not an insurance policy, but rather an unjust and high-stakes gamble. There is a real risk they will be unable to deliver on the scale of their promise. If the emphasis on equity and risk aversion embodied in the Paris Agreement are to have traction, negative-emission technologies should not form the basis of the mitigation agenda. [...] They could very reasonably be the subject of research, development, and potentially deployment, but the mitigation agenda should proceed on the premise that they will not work at scale. The implications of failing to do otherwise are a moral hazard par excellence.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14161174,~to-add-doi-URL,biodiversity,bioenergy,carbon-capture-and-storage,carbon-dioxide-removal,carbon-emissions,climate-change,environment-society-economy,ghg,global-warming,integrated-modelling,negative-emissions,policy-strategies-for-scientific-uncertainty,science-ethics,science-policy-interface,science-society-interface,sustainability,technology,terminology,trade-offs,uncertainty,unknown},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14161174},
  number = {6309}
}

@article{yuSystemCrashDynamics2016,
  title = {System Crash as Dynamics of Complex Networks},
  author = {Yu, Yi and Xiao, Gaoxi and Zhou, Jie and Wang, Yubo and Wang, Zhen and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Schellnhuber, Hans J.},
  year = {2016},
  month = oct,
  volume = {113},
  pages = {11726--11731},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1612094113},
  abstract = {[Significance]

System crash, as an essential part of system evolution, sometimes happens in peculiar manners: Weakened systems may survive for a surprisingly long time before suddenly meeting their final ends, whereas seemingly unbeatable giants may drastically crash to virtual nonexistence. We propose a model that describes system crash as a consequence of some relatively simple local information-based individual behaviors: Individuals leave networks according to some most straightforward assessment of current and future benefits/risks. Of note, such a simple rule may enable a single push/mistake to cause multistage-style system crash. Our study helps to make sense of the process where complex systems go into unstoppable cascading declines and provides a viewpoint of predicting the fate of some social/natural systems. [Abstract]

Complex systems, from animal herds to human nations, sometimes crash drastically. Although the growth and evolution of systems have been extensively studied, our understanding of how systems crash is still limited. It remains rather puzzling why some systems, appearing to be doomed to fail, manage to survive for a long time whereas some other systems, which seem to be too big or too strong to fail, crash rapidly. In this contribution, we propose a network-based system dynamics model, where individual actions based on the local information accessible in their respective system structures may lead to the '' peculiar'' dynamics of system crash mentioned above. Extensive simulations are carried out on synthetic and real-life networks, which further reveal the interesting system evolution leading to the final crash. Applications and possible extensions of the proposed model are discussed.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14152985,~to-add-doi-URL,complexity,dynamic-system,evolution,instability,networks,non-linearity,resilience,system-catastrophe},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14152985},
  number = {42}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{battiston2016price,
abstract = {Financial institutions form multilayer networks by engaging in contracts with each other and by holding exposures to common assets. As a result, the default probability of one institution depends on the default probability of all of the other institutions in the network. Here, we show how small errors on the knowledge of the network of contracts can lead to large errors in the probability of systemic defaults. From the point of view of financial regulators, our findings show that the complexity of financial networks may decrease the ability to mitigate systemic risk, and thus it may increase the social cost of financial crises.},
author = {Battiston, Stefano and Caldarelli, Guido and May, Robert and Roukny, Tarik and Stiglitz, Joseph E},
doi = {doi/10.1073/pnas.1521573113},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {DOLFINS{\_}T1.4,DOLFINS{\_}T2.1,DOLFINS{\_}WP1,DOLFINS{\_}WP2},
mendeley-tags = {DOLFINS{\_}T1.4,DOLFINS{\_}T2.1,DOLFINS{\_}WP1,DOLFINS{\_}WP2},
number = {36},
pages = {10031--10036},
title = {{The Price of Complexity in Financial Networks}},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/113/36/10031.short},
volume = {113},
year = {2016}
}

Paper  bibtex   

@article{battiston2016complexity,
author = {Battiston, Stefano and Farmer, J Doyne and Flache, Andreas and Garlaschelli, Diego and Haldane, Andrew G and Heesterbeek, Hans and Hommes, Cars and Jaeger, Carlo and May, Robert and Scheffer, Marten},
journal = {Science},
keywords = {DOLFINS{\_}T2.1,DOLFINS{\_}WP2},
mendeley-tags = {DOLFINS{\_}T2.1,DOLFINS{\_}WP2},
number = {6275},
pages = {818--819},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science},
title = {{Complexity theory and financial regulation}},
url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/351/6275/818.short},
volume = {351},
year = {2016}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{walsh_singularity_2016,
	title = {The {Singularity} {May} {Never} {Be} {Near}},
	url = {http://arxiv.org/abs/1602.06462},
	abstract = {There is both much optimism and pessimism around artificial intelligence (AI) today. The optimists are investing millions of dollars, and even in some cases billions of dollars into AI. The pessimists, on the other hand, predict that AI will end many things: jobs, warfare, and even the human race. Both the optimists and the pessimists often appeal to the idea of a technological singularity, a point in time where machine intelligence starts to run away, and a new, more intelligent species starts to inhabit the earth. If the optimists are right, this will be a moment that fundamentally changes our economy and our society. If the pessimists are right, this will be a moment that also fundamentally changes our economy and our society. It is therefore very worthwhile spending some time deciding if either of them might be right.},
	urldate = {2017-11-01},
	journal = {arXiv:1602.06462 [cs]},
	author = {Walsh, Toby},
	month = feb,
	year = {2016},
	note = {00004 
arXiv: 1602.06462},
	keywords = {collapse, existential-risks},
	file = {Walsh - 2016 - The Singularity May Never Be Near.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\KWSCWNW9\\Walsh - 2016 - The Singularity May Never Be Near.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{smaldinoNaturalSelectionBad2016,
  title = {The Natural Selection of Bad Science},
  author = {Smaldino, Paul E. and McElreath, Richard},
  year = {2016},
  month = sep,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {160384+},
  issn = {2054-5703},
  doi = {10.1098/rsos.160384},
  abstract = {Poor research design and data analysis encourage false-positive findings. Such poor methods persist despite perennial calls for improvement, suggesting that they result from something more than just misunderstanding. The persistence of poor methods results partly from incentives that favour them, leading to the natural selection of bad science. This dynamic requires no conscious strategizing -- no deliberate cheating nor loafing -- by scientists, only that publication is a principal factor for career advancement. Some normative methods of analysis have almost certainly been selected to further publication instead of discovery. In order to improve the culture of science, a shift must be made away from correcting misunderstandings and towards rewarding understanding. We support this argument with empirical evidence and computational modelling. We first present a 60-year meta-analysis of statistical power in the behavioural sciences and show that power has not improved despite repeated demonstrations of the necessity of increasing power. To demonstrate the logical consequences of structural incentives, we then present a dynamic model of scientific communities in which competing laboratories investigate novel or previously published hypotheses using culturally transmitted research methods. As in the real world, successful labs produce more 'progeny,' such that their methods are more often copied and their students are more likely to start labs of their own. Selection for high output leads to poorer methods and increasingly high false discovery rates. We additionally show that replication slows but does not stop the process of methodological deterioration. Improving the quality of research requires change at the institutional level.

[Excerpt: Discussion]

Incentives drive cultural evolution. In the scientific community, incentives for publication quantity can drive the evolution of poor methodological practices. We have provided some empirical evidence that this occurred, as well as a general model of the process. If we want to improve how our scientific culture functions, we must consider not only the individual behaviours we wish to change, but also the social forces that provide affordances and incentives for those behaviours. [...]

[] An incentive structure that rewards publication quantity will, in the absence of countervailing forces, select for methods that produce the greatest number of publishable results. This, in turn, will lead to the natural selection of poor methods and increasingly high false discovery rates. Although we have focused on false discoveries, there are additional negative repercussions of this kind of incentive structure. Scrupulous research on difficult problems may require years of intense work before yielding coherent, publishable results. If shallower work generating more publications is favoured, then researchers interested in pursuing complex questions may find themselves without jobs, perhaps to the detriment of the scientific community more broadly.

[] Good science is in some sense a public good, and as such may be characterized by the conflict between cooperation and free riding. We can think of cooperation here as the opportunity to create group-beneficial outcomes (i.e. quality research) at a personal cost (i.e. diminished 'fitness' in terms of academic success). To those familiar with the game theory of cooperative dilemmas, it might therefore appear that continued contributions to the public good -- cooperation rather than free riding -- could be maintained through the same mechanisms known to promote cooperation more generally, including reciprocity, monitoring and punishment. However, the logic of cooperation requires that the benefit received by cooperators can be measured in the same units as the pay-off to free riders: i.e. units of evolutionary fitness. It is possible that coalitions of rigorous scientists working together will generate greater output than less rigorous individuals working in isolation. And indeed, there has been an increase in highly collaborative work in many fields. Nevertheless, such collaboration may also be a direct response to incentives for publication quantity, as contributing a small amount to many projects generates more publications than does contributing a large amount to few projects. Cooperation in the sense of higher quality research provides a public good in the sense of knowledge, but not in the sense of fitness for the cultural evolution of methodology. Purely bottom-up solutions are therefore unlikely to be sufficient. That said, changing attitudes about the assessment of scientists is vital to making progress, and is a driving motivation for this presentation.

[] [...]

[] Whenever quantitative metrics are used as proxies to evaluate and reward scientists, those metrics become open to exploitation if it is easier to do so than to directly improve the quality of research. Institutional guidelines for evaluation at least partly determine how researchers devote their energies, and thereby shape the kind of science that gets done. A real solution is likely to be patchwork, in part because accurately rewarding quality is difficult. Real merit takes time to manifest, and scrutinizing the quality of another's work takes time from already busy schedules. Competition for jobs and funding is stiff, and reviewers require some means to assess researchers. Moreover, individuals differ on their criteria for excellence. Boiling down an individual's output to simple, objective metrics, such as number of publications or journal impacts, entails considerable savings in terms of time, energy and ambiguity. Unfortunately, the long-term costs of using simple quantitative metrics to assess researcher merit are likely to be quite great. If we are serious about ensuring that our science is both meaningful and reproducible, we must ensure that our institutions incentivize that kind of science.},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  eprint = {1605.09511},
  eprinttype = {arxiv},
  journal = {Royal Society Open Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14143905,~to-add-doi-URL,competition,cooperation,emergent-property,epistemology,evolution,feedback,game-theory,publication-bias,publish-or-perish,replicability,reproducibility,reproducible-research,research-management,research-metrics,rewarding-best-research-practices,science-ethics},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14143905},
  number = {9}
}

Paper  doi  bibtex   

@article{worm_humans_2016,
	title = {Humans as a {Hyperkeystone} {Species}},
	volume = {31},
	issn = {01695347},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169534716300659},
	doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2016.05.008},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2016-07-25},
	journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
	author = {Worm, Boris and Paine, Robert T.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2016},
	note = {00003},
	keywords = {anthropocene, collapse, philosophy},
	pages = {600--607},
	file = {Worm and Paine - 2016 - Humans as a Hyperkeystone Species.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\PSUUBSDB\\Worm and Paine - 2016 - Humans as a Hyperkeystone Species.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  bibtex   

@article{brondizio_re-conceptualizing_2016,
	title = {Re-conceptualizing the {Anthropocene}: {A} call for collaboration},
	issn = {09593780},
	shorttitle = {Re-conceptualizing the {Anthropocene}},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378016300176},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.006},
	language = {en},
	urldate = {2016-05-25},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Brondizio, Eduardo S. and O’Brien, Karen and Bai, Xuemei and Biermann, Frank and Steffen, Will and Berkhout, Frans and Cudennec, Christophe and Lemos, Maria Carmen and Wolfe, Alexander and Palma-Oliveira, Jose and Chen, Chen-Tung Arthur},
	month = mar,
	year = {2016},
	note = {00002},
	keywords = {anthropocene, collapse},
	file = {Brondizio et al. - 2016 - Re-conceptualizing the Anthropocene A call for co.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\P48T6M3X\\Brondizio et al. - 2016 - Re-conceptualizing the Anthropocene A call for co.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{kelleyClimateChangeFertile2015,
  title = {Climate Change in the {{Fertile Crescent}} and Implications of the Recent {{Syrian}} Drought},
  author = {Kelley, Colin P. and Mohtadi, Shahrzad and Cane, Mark A. and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan},
  year = {2015},
  month = mar,
  volume = {112},
  pages = {3241--3246},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1421533112},
  abstract = {[Significance]

There is evidence that the 2007-2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007-2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.

[Abstract]

Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13533740,climate-change,conflicts,droughts,geopolitics},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13533740},
  number = {11}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{scott_global_2015,
	title = {Global {Energy} {Development} and {Climate}-{Induced} {Water} {Scarcity}—{Physical} {Limits}, {Sectoral} {Constraints}, and {Policy} {Imperatives}},
	volume = {8},
	issn = {1996-1073},
	url = {http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/8/8211/},
	doi = {10.3390/en8088211},
	abstract = {The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others), while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a) technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b) resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c) institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.},
	language = {en},
	number = {8},
	urldate = {2016-12-13},
	journal = {Energies},
	author = {Scott, Christopher and Sugg, Zachary},
	month = aug,
	year = {2015},
	note = {00004},
	keywords = {energy, boundaries, collapse, water, climate},
	pages = {8211--8225},
	file = {Scott and Sugg - 2015 - Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Wate.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\7FGK5CWC\\Scott and Sugg - 2015 - Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Wate.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{cooke_messaging_2015,
	title = {Messaging climate change uncertainty},
	volume = {5},
	copyright = {© 2015 Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
	issn = {1758-678X},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n1/full/nclimate2466.html},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2466},
	abstract = {Climate change is full of uncertainty and the messengers of climate science are not getting the uncertainty narrative right. To communicate uncertainty one must first understand it, and then avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2015-02-24},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Cooke, Roger M.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {collapse, sociology, storytelling, media},
	pages = {8--10},
	file = {Cooke - 2015 - Messaging climate change uncertainty.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\VAS5J8E6\\Cooke - 2015 - Messaging climate change uncertainty.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{zalasiewiczWhenDidAnthropocene2015,
  title = {When Did the {{Anthropocene}} Begin? {{A}} Mid-Twentieth Century Boundary Level Is Stratigraphically Optimal},
  author = {Zalasiewicz, Jan and Waters, Colin N. and Williams, Mark and Barnosky, Anthony D. and Cearreta, Alejandro and Crutzen, Paul and Ellis, Erle and Ellis, Michael A. and Fairchild, Ian J. and Grinevald, Jacques and Haff, Peter K. and Hajdas, Irka and Leinfelder, Reinhold and McNeill, John and Odada, Eric O. and Poirier, Cl{\'e}ment and Richter, Daniel and Steffen, Will and Summerhayes, Colin and Syvitski, James P. M. and Vidas, Davor and Wagreich, Michael and Wing, Scott L. and Wolfe, Alexander P. and An, Zhisheng and Oreskes, Naomi},
  year = {2015},
  month = jan,
  issn = {1040-6182},
  doi = {10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.045},
  abstract = {We evaluate the boundary of the Anthropocene geological time interval as an epoch, since it is useful to have a consistent temporal definition for this increasingly used unit, whether the presently informal term is eventually formalized or not. Of the three main levels suggested - an 'early Anthropocene' level some thousands of years ago; the beginning of the Industrial Revolution at {$\sim$}1800 CE (Common Era); and the 'Great Acceleration' of the mid-twentieth century - current evidence suggests that the last of these has the most pronounced and globally synchronous signal. A boundary at this time need not have a Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP or 'golden spike') but can be defined by a Global Standard Stratigraphic Age (GSSA), i.e. a point in time of the human calendar. We propose an appropriate boundary level here to be the time of the world's first nuclear bomb explosion, on July 16th 1945 at Alamogordo, New Mexico; additional bombs were detonated at the average rate of one every 9.6 days until 1988 with attendant worldwide fallout easily identifiable in the chemostratigraphic record. Hence, Anthropocene deposits would be those that may include the globally distributed primary artificial radionuclide signal, while also being recognized using a wide range of other stratigraphic criteria. This suggestion for the Holocene-Anthropocene boundary may ultimately be superseded, as the Anthropocene is only in its early phases, but it should remain practical and effective for use by at least the current generation of scientists.},
  journal = {Quaternary International},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13558672,anthropocene,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,multiauthor},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13558672}
}

@article{rippleCollapseWorldLargest2015,
  title = {Collapse of the World's Largest Herbivores},
  author = {Ripple, W. J. and Newsome, T. M. and Wolf, C. and Dirzo, R. and Everatt, K. T. and Galetti, M. and Hayward, M. W. and Kerley, G. I. H. and Levi, T. and Lindsey, P. A. and Macdonald, D. W. and Malhi, Y. and Painter, L. E. and Sandom, C. J. and Terborgh, J. and Van Valkenburgh, B.},
  year = {2015},
  month = may,
  volume = {1},
  pages = {e1400103},
  issn = {2375-2548},
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1400103},
  abstract = {Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass {$\geq$}100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that{\~ }60\,\% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs.},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14037837,~to-add-doi-URL,conservation,ecology,ecosystem-services,global-scale,herbivory,hydrology,nutrients,vegetation,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14037837},
  number = {4}
}

@article{steffenPlanetaryBoundariesGuiding2015,
  title = {Planetary Boundaries: Guiding Human Development on a Changing Planet},
  author = {Steffen, Will and Richardson, Katherine and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan and Cornell, Sarah E. and Fetzer, Ingo and Bennett, Elena M. and Biggs, Reinette and Carpenter, Stephen R. and {de Vries}, Wim and {de Wit}, Cynthia A. and Folke, Carl and Gerten, Dieter and Heinke, Jens and Mace, Georgina M. and Persson, Linn M. and Ramanathan, Veerabhadran and Reyers, Belinda and S{\"o}rlin, Sverker},
  year = {2015},
  volume = {347},
  pages = {736+},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1259855},
  abstract = {[Editor summary: Crossing the boundaries in global sustainability]

The planetary boundary (PB) concept, introduced in 2009, aimed to define the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. This approach has proved influential in global sustainability policy development. Steffen et al. provide an updated and extended analysis of the PB framework. Of the original nine proposed boundaries, they identify three (including climate change) that might push the Earth system into a new state if crossed and that also have a pervasive influence on the remaining boundaries. They also develop the PB framework so that it can be applied usefully in a regional context.

[Structured abstract]

[::Introduction]

There is an urgent need for a new paradigm that integrates the continued development of human societies and the maintenance of the Earth system (ES) in a resilient and accommodating state. The planetary boundary (PB) framework contributes to such a paradigm by providing a science-based analysis of the risk that human perturbations will destabilize the ES at the planetary scale. Here, the scientific underpinnings of the PB framework are updated and strengthened.

[::Rationale]

The relatively stable, 11,700-year-long Holocene epoch is the only state of the ES that we know for certain can support contemporary human societies. There is increasing evidence that human activities are affecting ES functioning to a degree that threatens the resilience of the ES -- its ability to persist in a Holocene-like state in the face of increasing human pressures and shocks. The PB framework is based on critical processes that regulate ES functioning. By combining improved scientific understanding of ES functioning with the precautionary principle, the PB framework identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the ES is likely to remain low -- a '' safe operating space'' for global societal development. A zone of uncertainty for each PB highlights the area of increasing risk. The current level of anthropogenic impact on the ES, and thus the risk to the stability of the ES, is assessed by comparison with the proposed PB (see the figure).

[::Results]

Three of the PBs (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and ocean acidification) remain essentially unchanged from the earlier analysis. Regional-level boundaries as well as globally aggregated PBs have now been developed for biosphere integrity (earlier '' biodiversity loss''), biogeochemical flows, land-system change, and freshwater use. At present, only one regional boundary (south Asian monsoon) can be established for atmospheric aerosol loading. Although we cannot identify a single PB for novel entities (here defined as new substances, new forms of existing substances, and modified life forms that have the potential for unwanted geophysical and/or biological effects), they are included in the PB framework, given their potential to change the state of the ES. Two of the PBs -- climate change and biosphere integrity -- are recognized as '' core'' PBs based on their fundamental importance for the ES. The climate system is a manifestation of the amount, distribution, and net balance of energy at Earth's surface; the biosphere regulates material and energy flows in the ES and increases its resilience to abrupt and gradual change. Anthropogenic perturbation levels of four of the ES processes/features (climate change, biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, and land-system change) exceed the proposed PB (see the figure).

[::Conclusions]

PBs are scientifically based levels of human perturbation of the ES beyond which ES functioning may be substantially altered. Transgression of the PBs thus creates substantial risk of destabilizing the Holocene state of the ES in which modern societies have evolved. The PB framework does not dictate how societies should develop. These are political decisions that must include consideration of the human dimensions, including equity, not incorporated in the PB framework. Nevertheless, by identifying a safe operating space for humanity on Earth, the PB framework can make a valuable contribution to decision-makers in charting desirable courses for societal development.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007223,~to-add-doi-URL,anthropogenic-impacts,climate-change,global-scale,ocean-acidification,ozone,regional-scale,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14007223},
  number = {6223}
}

@article{schefferCreatingSafeOperating2015,
  title = {Creating a Safe Operating Space for Iconic Ecosystems},
  author = {Scheffer, M. and Barrett, S. and Carpenter, S. R. and Folke, C. and Green, A. J. and Holmgren, M. and Hughes, T. P. and Kosten, S. and {van de Leemput}, I. A. and Nepstad, D. C. and {van Nes}, E. H. and Peeters, E. T. H. M. and Walker, B.},
  year = {2015},
  month = mar,
  volume = {347},
  pages = {1317--1319},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aaa3769},
  abstract = {Although some ecosystem responses to climate change are gradual, many ecosystems react in highly nonlinear ways. They show little response until a threshold or tipping point is reached where even a small perturbation may trigger collapse into a state from which recovery is difficult (1). Increasing evidence shows that the critical climate level for such collapse may be altered by conditions that can be managed locally. These synergies between local stressors and climate change provide potential opportunities for proactive management. Although their clarity and scale make such local approaches more conducive to action than global greenhouse gas management, crises in iconic UNESCO World Heritage sites illustrate that such stewardship is at risk of failing.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13555881,~to-add-doi-URL,ecology,ecosystem,global-scale,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13555881},
  number = {6228}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{smith_near-term_2015,
	title = {Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change},
	volume = {5},
	copyright = {© 2014 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-678X},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2552.html},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2552},
	abstract = {Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature1. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt2. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. 3) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 ± 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.},
	language = {en},
	number = {4},
	urldate = {2016-12-07},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Smith, Steven J. and Edmonds, James and Hartin, Corinne A. and Mundra, Anupriya and Calvin, Katherine},
	month = apr,
	year = {2015},
	note = {00032},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
	pages = {333--336},
	file = {Smith et al. - 2015 - Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\M4FJWXEZ\\Smith et al. - 2015 - Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature .pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{LeQuere2015,
abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1$\sigma$, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 {\%} above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 {\%} yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] {\%}, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 {\%} from EFF and 25 {\%} from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}} et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP{\_}2015).},
author = {{Le Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}}, C. and Moriarty, R. and Andrew, R. M. and Canadell, J. G. and Sitch, S. and Korsbakken, J. I. and Friedlingstein, P. and Peters, G. P. and Andres, R. J. and Boden, T. A. and Houghton, R. A. and House, J. I. and Keeling, R. F. and Tans, P. and Arneth, A. and Bakker, D. C. E. and Barbero, L. and Bopp, L. and Chang, J. and Chevallier, F. and Chini, L. P. and Ciais, P. and Fader, M. and Feely, R. A. and Gkritzalis, T. and Harris, I. and Hauck, J. and Ilyina, T. and Jain, A. K. and Kato, E. and Kitidis, V. and {Klein Goldewijk}, K. and Koven, C. and Landsch{\"{u}}tzer, P. and Lauvset, S. K. and Lef{\`{e}}vre, N. and Lenton, A. and Lima, I. D. and Metzl, N. and Millero, F. and Munro, D. R. and Murata, A. and Nabel, J. E. M. S. and Nakaoka, S. and Nojiri, Y. and O'Brien, K. and Olsen, A. and Ono, T. and P{\'{e}}rez, F. F. and Pfeil, B. and Pierrot, D. and Poulter, B. and Rehder, G. and R{\"{o}}denbeck, C. and Saito, S. and Schuster, U. and Schwinger, J. and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, R. and Steinhoff, T. and Stocker, B. D. and Sutton, A. J. and Takahashi, T. and Tilbrook, B. and van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T. and van der Werf, G. R. and van Heuven, S. and Vandemark, D. and Viovy, N. and Wiltshire, A. and Zaehle, S. and Zeng, N.},
doi = {10.5194/essd-7-349-2015},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {dec},
number = {2},
pages = {349--396},
title = {{Global Carbon Budget 2015}},
url = {http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/7/349/2015/},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}

@article{monasterskyAnthropoceneHumanAge2015,
  title = {Anthropocene: The Human Age},
  author = {Monastersky, Richard},
  year = {2015},
  month = mar,
  volume = {519},
  pages = {144--147},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/519144a},
  abstract = {Momentum is building to establish a new geological epoch that recognizes humanity's impact on the planet. But there is fierce debate behind the scenes.

[Excerpt] [...] Through mining activities alone, humans move more sediment than all the world's rivers combined. Homo sapiens has also warmed the planet, raised sea levels, eroded the ozone layer and acidified the oceans.

[\textbackslash n] Given the magnitude of these changes, many researchers propose that the Anthropocene represents a new division of geological time. The concept has gained traction, especially in the past few years -- and not just among geoscientists. The word has been invoked by archaeologists, historians and even gender-studies researchers; several museums around the world have exhibited art inspired by the Anthropocene; and the media have heartily adopted the idea. '' Welcome to the Anthropocene,'' The Economist announced in 2011.

[\textbackslash n] The greeting was a tad premature. Although the term is trending, the Anthropocene is still an amorphous notion -- an unofficial name that has yet to be accepted as part of the geological timescale. That may change soon. A committee of researchers is currently hashing out whether to codify the Anthropocene as a formal geological unit, and when to define its starting point.

[\textbackslash n] But critics worry that important arguments against the proposal have been drowned out by popular enthusiasm, driven in part by environmentally minded researchers who want to highlight how destructive humans have become. Some supporters of the Anthropocene idea have even been likened to zealots. '' There's a similarity to certain religious groups who are extremely keen on their religion -- to the extent that they think everybody who doesn't practise their religion is some kind of barbarian,'' says one geologist who asked not to be named.

[\textbackslash n] The debate has shone a spotlight on the typically unnoticed process by which geologists carve up Earth's 4.5 billion years of history. Normally, decisions about the geological timescale are made solely on the basis of stratigraphy -- the evidence contained in layers of rock, ocean sediments, ice cores and other geological deposits. But the issue of the Anthropocene '' is an order of magnitude more complicated than the stratigraphy'', says Jan Zalasiewicz, a geologist at the University of Leicester, UK, and the chair of the Anthropocene Working Group that is evaluating the issue for the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS). [...]

[\textbackslash n] When the Anthropocene Working Group started investigating, it compiled a much longer long list of the changes wrought by humans. Agriculture, construction and the damming of rivers is stripping away sediment at least ten times as fast as the natural forces of erosion. Along some coastlines, the flood of nutrients from fertilizers has created oxygen-poor 'dead zones', and the extra CO2 from fossil-fuel burning has acidified the surface waters of the ocean by 0.1 pH units. The fingerprint of humans is clear in global temperatures, the rate of species extinctions and the loss of Arctic ice.

[\textbackslash n] The group, which includes Crutzen, initially leaned towards his idea of choosing the Industrial Revolution as the beginning of the Anthropocene. But other options were on the table.

[\textbackslash n] Some researchers have argued for a starting time that coincides with an expansion of agriculture and livestock cultivation more than 5,000 years ago4, or a surge in mining more than 3,000 years ago (see 'Humans at the helm'). But neither the Industrial Revolution nor those earlier changes have left unambiguous geological signals of human activity that are synchronous around the globe (see 'Landscape architecture').

[\textbackslash n] This week in Nature, two researchers propose that a potential marker for the start of the Anthropocene could be a noticeable drop in atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 1570 and 1620, which is recorded in ice cores (see page 171). They link this change to the deaths of some 50 million indigenous people in the Americas, triggered by the arrival of Europeans. In the aftermath, forests took over 65 million hectares of abandoned agricultural fields -- a surge of regrowth that reduced global CO2.

[\textbackslash n] In the working group, Zalasiewicz and others have been talking increasingly about another option -- using the geological marks left by the atomic age. Between 1945 and 1963, when the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty took effect, nations conducted some 500 above-ground nuclear blasts. Debris from those explosions circled the globe and created an identifiable layer of radioactive elements in sediments. At the same time, humans were making geological impressions in a number of other ways -- all part of what has been called the Great Acceleration of the modern world. Plastics started flooding the environment, along with aluminium, artificial fertilizers, concrete and leaded petrol, all of which have left signals in the sedimentary record. [...]},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13547930,anthropic-feedback,anthropocene,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,climate,ecology,evolution,featured-publication,long-distance-dispersal,species-distribution},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13547930},
  number = {7542}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{asseng_rising_2015,
	title = {Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production},
	volume = {5},
	copyright = {© 2014 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {1758-678X},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n2/full/nclimate2470.html},
	doi = {10.1038/nclimate2470},
	abstract = {Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6\% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.},
	language = {en},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2015-02-26},
	journal = {Nature Climate Change},
	author = {Asseng, S. and Ewert, F. and Martre, P. and Rötter, R. P. and Lobell, D. B. and Cammarano, D. and Kimball, B. A. and Ottman, M. J. and Wall, G. W. and White, J. W. and Reynolds, M. P. and Alderman, P. D. and Prasad, P. V. V. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Anothai, J. and Basso, B. and Biernath, C. and Challinor, A. J. and De Sanctis, G. and Doltra, J. and Fereres, E. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Hoogenboom, G. and Hunt, L. A. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jabloun, M. and Jones, C. D. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Koehler, A.-K. and Müller, C. and Naresh Kumar, S. and Nendel, C. and O’Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Eyshi Rezaei, E. and Ruane, A. C. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Stöckle, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Thorburn, P. J. and Waha, K. and Wang, E. and Wallach, D. and Wolf, J. and Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y.},
	month = feb,
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, agriculture-food-famine, climate},
	pages = {143--147},
	file = {Asseng et al. - 2015 - Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\WNX3JWN2\\Asseng et al. - 2015 - Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{trumboreForestHealthGlobal2015,
  title = {Forest Health and Global Change},
  author = {Trumbore, S. and Brando, P. and Hartmann, H.},
  year = {2015},
  month = aug,
  volume = {349},
  pages = {814--818},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aac6759},
  abstract = {Humans rely on healthy forests to supply energy, building materials, and food and to provide services such as storing carbon, hosting biodiversity, and regulating climate. Defining forest health integrates utilitarian and ecosystem measures of forest condition and function, implemented across a range of spatial scales. Although native forests are adapted to some level of disturbance, all forests now face novel stresses in the form of climate change, air pollution, and invasive pests. Detecting how intensification of these stresses will affect the trajectory of forests is a major scientific challenge that requires developing systems to assess the health of global forests. It is particularly critical to identify thresholds for rapid forest decline, because it can take many decades for forests to restore the services that they provide.

[Excerpt] Forests have evolved while experiencing disturbances such as drought, windthrow (when trees are uprooted or overthrown by wind), insect and disease outbreaks, and fire. However, forests worldwide increasingly must also cope with human-related intensification of stressors that affect forest condition, either directly through logging and clearing or indirectly through climate change, air pollution, and invasive species. These novel disturbances alter forest communities and environmental conditions outside the ranges in which current forests evolved and occur too fast for evolutionary adaptation processes to keep pace. Thus, the future of global forests will be determined by the trajectory of complex forest system responses to multiple stressors that span local to global scales. [...]

[How do we measure forest condition and assess forest health?] [...] Forests contain trees subjected to periodic stresses (e.g., drought stress) that affect the resilience of individuals and, if very intense or often repeated, can lead to mortality. We distinguish such stresses from disturbances that can kill healthy as well as unhealthy trees (e.g., windthrow, fire, and logging). Both can produce a dying patch of forest that might be considered in itself unhealthy but can facilitate a whole suite of essential ecological process such as regeneration, nutrient cycling, or habitat creation at broader spatial scales. Thus, a healthy forest is one that encompasses a mosaic of successional patches representing all stages of the natural range of disturbance and recovery. Such forests promote a diversity of nutrient dynamics, cover types, and stand structures, and they create a range of habitat niches for endemic fauna. The challenge is determining when the frequency, spatial extent, and strength of stresses and disturbances exceed the natural range of variability and affect the trajectory of vegetation recovery at the landscape to regional scale. 

[What is the legacy of declines in forest health?] One of the key attributes of a healthy forest system is its ability to recover from disturbance. [...] 

[] The various functions associated with forests recover over different time scales after major disturbances. For example, even in severely damaged forests, new leaf cover can obscure open canopy areas in as little as a few months. [...] Biomass and the associated carbon storage functions of forests recover more slowly than fluxes, taking decades to centuries to replace losses. Other forest functions, such as biodiversity, can take even longer to recover, because they depend on the presence of individual species. Although gap formation in forests can sustain biodiversity at the landscape or regional level, very broad-scale disturbances such as deforestation and firestorms dramatically reduce diversity. In such cases, the recovery of biodiversity requires replacement of the full range of tree species as well as of the fauna they host.[...] Soil-derived nutrients are resupplied slowly by atmospheric dust or mineral weathering. Thus, nutrient depletion associated with disturbance may ultimately limit the rate and degree of recovery of other functions. The difficulty is to determine which of these functions are required to recover a healthy forest condition.

[] Although we have concentrated on ecosystem properties, the definition of forest recovery also has implications for the utilitarian perspective. Forests that do not fully achieve predisturbance levels of diversity or nutrient status can almost fully regain wood production or carbon storage services, given sufficient time. A single large event such as a drought may remove the most susceptible species and leave behind more drought-resistant trees, potentially reducing tree mortality in successive droughts. However, if selective mortality occurs over a large enough area, the carbon storage and diversity services that were offered by the drought-sensitive species will take decades to centuries to recover. Thus, broad-scale and persistent degradation of forests will have lasting consequences, even if the forests themselves eventually recover. [...]

[Are we facing a future without healthy forests?]

[...] Given that many of the trees alive today will experience temperatures and CO2 levels outside the range to which they are adapted, it is critical to improve efforts to monitor forests and especially tree mortality.

[] Forests have existed for far longer than humans and have already survived a wide range of past changes in climate conditions. Over the long term, forests will probably prove resilient to rapid anthropogenic changes in climate and environment, whether in their current form or in novel community assemblages. Human concerns about forest health mostly reflect our dependence on the continued availability of the products and services that forests provide. Our vulnerability to even temporary disruptions in their supply underlines our urgent need to detect, understand, and predict potential declines in global forest health.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13708350,~to-add-doi-URL,ecosystem-resilience,ecosystem-services,featured-publication,forest-management,forest-resources,global-change,homeostasis,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,system-catastrophe},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708350},
  number = {6250}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{nagelkerken_global_2015,
	title = {Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human {CO}2 emissions},
	volume = {112},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/112/43/13272.short},
	abstract = {Rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are anticipated to drive change to ocean ecosystems, but a conceptualization of biological change derived from quantitative analyses is lacking. Derived from multiple ecosystems and latitudes, our metaanalysis of 632 published experiments quantified the direction and magnitude of ecological change resulting from ocean acidification and warming to conceptualize broadly based change. Primary production by temperate noncalcifying plankton increases with elevated temperature and CO2, whereas tropical plankton decreases productivity because of acidification. Temperature increases consumption by and metabolic rates of herbivores, but this response does not translate into greater secondary production, which instead decreases with acidification in calcifying and noncalcifying species. This effect creates a mismatch with carnivores whose metabolic and foraging costs increase with temperature. Species diversity and abundances of tropical as well as temperate species decline with acidification, with shifts favoring novel community compositions dominated by noncalcifiers and microorganisms. Both warming and acidification instigate reduced calcification in tropical and temperate reef-building species. Acidification leads to a decline in dimethylsulfide production by ocean plankton, which as a climate gas, contributes to cloud formation and maintenance of the Earth’s heat budget. Analysis of responses in short- and long-term experiments and of studies at natural CO2 vents reveals little evidence of acclimation to acidification or temperature changes, except for microbes. This conceptualization of change across whole communities and their trophic linkages forecast a reduction in diversity and abundances of various key species that underpin current functioning of marine ecosystems.},
	number = {43},
	urldate = {2015-11-10},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Nagelkerken, Ivan and Connell, Sean D.},
	year = {2015},
	keywords = {biodiversity, boundaries, collapse, oceans},
	pages = {13272--13277},
	file = {Nagelkerken and Connell - 2015 - Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning d.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\M7WFKAWP\\Nagelkerken and Connell - 2015 - Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning d.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{Karstensen2015,
abstract = {Here we present first observations, from instrumentation installed on moorings and a float, of unexpectedly low (−1) oxygen environments in the open waters of the tropical North Atlantic, a region where oxygen concentration does normally not fall much below 40 $\mu$mol kg−1. The low-oxygen zones are created at shallow depth, just below the mixed layer, in the euphotic zone of cyclonic eddies and anticyclonic-modewater eddies. Both types of eddies are prone to high surface productivity. Net respiration rates for the eddies are found to be 3 to 5 times higher when compared with surrounding waters. Oxygen is lowest in the centre of the eddies, in a depth range where the swirl velocity, defining the transition between eddy and surroundings, has its maximum. It is assumed that the strong velocity at the outer rim of the eddies hampers the transport of properties across the eddies boundary and as such isolates their cores. This is supported by a remarkably stable hydrographic structure of the eddies core over periods of several months. The eddies propagate westward, at about 4 to 5 km day−1, from their generation region off the West African coast into the open ocean. High productivity and accompanying respiration, paired with sluggish exchange across the eddy boundary, create the "dead zone" inside the eddies, so far only reported for coastal areas or lakes. We observe a direct impact of the open ocean dead zones on the marine ecosystem as such that the diurnal vertical migration of zooplankton is suppressed inside the eddies.},
author = {Karstensen, J. and Fiedler, B. and Sch{\"{u}}tte, F. and Brandt, P. and K{\"{o}}rtzinger, A. and Fischer, G. and Zantopp, R. and Hahn, J. and Visbeck, M. and Wallace, D.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-12-2597-2015},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2597--2605},
title = {{Open ocean dead zones in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean}},
url = {http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/2597/2015/},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}

Website  abstract   bibtex   

@article{
 title = {Monitoring of initial porosity and new pores formation during drying: A scientific debate and a technical challenge},
 type = {article},
 year = {2015},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Collapse,Drying,Initial porosity,Sequencing,Shrinkage,Simulations,Theoretical model,X-ray microtomography},
 pages = {179-186},
 volume = {45},
 websites = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924224415001545},
 month = {10},
 id = {86d91219-63c1-3f6d-ad8f-08b9179f6365},
 created = {2016-04-04T08:04:58.000Z},
 accessed = {2016-03-08},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {9969bc68-8302-3563-8c57-5c40ce3d5acd},
 last_modified = {2016-04-16T08:41:54.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {true},
 confirmed = {true},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {BACKGROUND
Until recently, the main/unique mechanism used to describe porosity was the evolution of the empty spaces formed as a result of water removed during drying. Although we have suggested, previously, two functions (shrinkage and collapse) to capture both the empty spaces formed as a result of water removed (first mechanism), and the evolutions initial empty spaces (second mechanism), it is still not clear yet how to interpret separately the two mechanisms. Indeed, so far, there is no technical measurement available to isolate these two mechanisms form each other. 

SCOPE AND APPROACH
In this investigation, we aim at confirming the effect of the second mechanism (evolution of initial porosity) that should be considered when modelling porosity of foodstuffs. A selection of fresh products (eggplant, zucchini and mushroom) were chosen as prototypes for which the initial porosity cannot be ignored. A deep analysis of some published data, for apple and pear, was performed aiming at understanding the sequence of these two mechanisms during the drying processes. 

KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
By using X-ray microtomography (μ-CT) imaging, it has been possible to demonstrate that the initial empty spaces “initial porosity” of some fresh products is highly significant. The results of some mathematical simulations revealed that the two mechanisms are interrelated and therefore cannot be fully isolated and interpreted separately. This study opens a challenging scientific debate and an opportunity for finding a new approach for measuring/monitoring separately the two mechanisms during drying processes.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Khalloufi, Seddik and Kharaghani, Abdolreza and Almeida-Rivera, Cristhian and Nijsse, Jaap and van Dalen, Gerard and Tsotsas, Evangelos},
 journal = {Trends in Food Science & Technology},
 number = {2}
}

@article{
 title = {Porosity, Bulk Density, and Volume Reduction During Drying: Review of Measurement Methods and Coefficient Determinations},
 type = {article},
 year = {2015},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Collapse,Density,Modeling,Porosity,Shrinkage,Volume reduction},
 pages = {1681-1699},
 volume = {33},
 id = {e16ef061-50b6-3370-801b-1f3e9df15ee0},
 created = {2016-04-06T11:56:20.000Z},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {9969bc68-8302-3563-8c57-5c40ce3d5acd},
 last_modified = {2016-04-16T08:41:55.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {true},
 confirmed = {false},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {© 2015, Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Several experimental methods for measuring porosity, bulk density, and volume reduction during drying of foodstuffs are available. These methods include, among others, geometric dimension, volume displacement, mercury porosimeter, micro-CT, and NMR. However, data on their accuracy, sensitivity, and appropriateness are scarce. This article reviews these experimental methods, areas of applications, and limits. In addition, the concept of porosity, bulk density, and volume reduction and their evolution as a function of moisture content during drying are presented. In this study, values of initial porosity (ϵ<inf>0</inf>) and density ratio (β) of some food products are summarized. It has been found that ϵ<inf>0</inf> is highly dependent on the type of food products, while β ranges from 1.1 to 1.6. The possibility of calculating solid density based on food compositions has also been validated. The inter-predictions between porosity, bulk density, and volume density have been made mathematically evident.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Qiu, J. and Khalloufi, S. and Martynenko, A. and Van Dalen, G. and Schutyser, M. and Almeida-Rivera, C.},
 journal = {Drying Technology},
 number = {14}
}

@article{millarTemperateForestHealth2015,
  title = {Temperate Forest Health in an Era of Emerging Megadisturbance},
  author = {Millar, Constance I. and Stephenson, Nathan L.},
  year = {2015},
  month = aug,
  volume = {349},
  pages = {823--826},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aaa9933},
  abstract = {Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services.

[Excerpt] Forests not only are essential components of the natural environment but also offer profound spiritual and material benefits to humanity. After centuries of exploitation, there is much to celebrate in the resilience (ability to rebound after perturbation) of temperate forests. Broad swaths of forest that were cut in recent centuries continue to regrow vigorously, absorbing a substantial proportion of anthropogenic carbon-dioxide emissions (1). Despite deeply concerning declines of ancient trees in forests worldwide (2), large trees are increasingly abundant in areas of temperate forests that are regrowing after logging (3). In other regions, air-quality regulations have reduced acidic deposition and other air-pollution effects on forests, providing improved conditions for forest growth and sustainability (4).

[] Despite some encouraging trends, 21st-century forests still face grave threats. For millennia, the main threat to forests was overexploitation, but recent research has identified a range of emerging challenges to forest persistence and health. We focus on emerging '' megadisturbances'' that are capable of driving abrupt tree mortality of a spatial extent, severity, and frequency surpassing that recorded during recent human history. Where these occur, effects to ecosystems and society follow. Thus, while acknowledging the resilience of many forests, we highlight here the nature and consequences of changing environmental conditions that increasingly threaten widespread regions of temperate forest. In particular, we describe the rise of an especially potent threat to forest health that has only recently begun to receive broad attention, that is, persistent and recurring drought combined with high temperatures (see Fig. 1). [...]

[Forests of the future: Easing transitions]

What do these changes portend for temperate forests through the 21st century? In the short term, some forests will likely continue to absorb or rebound from disturbances, sustain a diversity of ecological functions, and deliver ecosystem services similar to those of past decades (Fig. 2). Over the longer term, however, most temperate forests are likely to change in condition (49), with megadisturbances frequently catalyzing these effects (14). The changes could range from minor shifts in forest structure (e.g., tree density and ages) and species compositions to major transformation of vegetation types, some resulting in novel ecosystems relative to recent centuries. In many cases, drought-hardy species, species with physiological plasticity capable of coping with compound stresses, and species with shorter statures might outcompete current species (50, 51). Native insects and pathogens may effectively act as invasive exotics as they move beyond their historic ranges (52).

[] Minimizing the effects to society from these transitions is emerging as a primary goal for forest management today (Fig. 4). A challenge to research will be to develop tools to assess the sensitivity of forests to thresholds from cumulative disturbances and evaluate their vulnerability to transformation. If we can identify in advance the most vulnerable forests, in some cases management intervention might be able to ease the transition to new and better-adapted forest states, minimizing losses of ecosystem services. Because the scope of the challenge is vast, triage exercises will almost certainly be necessary to identify the highest-priority forests and those where management action might have the greatest effect. 

[] Success will depend on far more integrated and coordinated efforts by institutions, agencies, and governments than presently exists (53). Distributed monitoring systems that observe changes on multiple scales of forest health are essential; these will become increasingly reliant on remote methods. Climate adaptation will likely move from compartmentalized to comprehensive strategies, with attention to proactive methods (54). Although thresholds are likely to be approached in the future, and changes are inevitable, the actions we take now in temperate forests can ease and guide transitions, diminishing effects to forest ecosystems and human societies.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13708352,~to-add-doi-URL,adaptation,air-pollution,climate-change,disturbances,droughts,ecosystem-services,featured-publication,forest-management,forest-pests,integrated-natural-resources-modelling-and-management,invasive-species,pressures,sustainability,temperate-forests,wildfires},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708352},
  number = {6250}
}

@article{lugoForestryAnthropocene2015,
  title = {Forestry in the {{Anthropocene}}},
  author = {Lugo, Ariel E.},
  year = {2015},
  month = aug,
  volume = {349},
  pages = {771},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aad2208},
  abstract = {[Excerpt] Human activity has had enormous effects on the species composition of floras and faunas, creating new ecological biomes worldwide. A principal challenge in forestry research and conservation is how to deal with these novel ecosystems. Most attention to this phenomenon is centered on the negative effects of species introductions and the need to stem the tide of species invasion. However, we need to scientifically understand new ecosystems and learn to recognize adaptive species combinations that will function sustainably in changing environmental conditions. [...]

[] The role of forests in mitigating climate change is foremost in the minds of most conservationists and for scientists responsible for global ecosystem models. Forests are now valued as much for their diverse ecological services as they are for their wood production. As such, efforts have been increasing to sustain the world's forests. In the tropics, which contain over half of the world's forests and a disproportionate amount of global biodiversity, over half of the forest area is now '' secondary'' regenerating forest, replacing trees that have been lost to agricultural activities. The amount of global land covered by cultivated plantation forests is now at a historical high -- roughly 200 million ha. And urban forests are now recognized for their role in supporting the quality of life in cities where over half of the world's population lives. These changes in the forest landscape, coupled with the accelerated movement of species across biogeographical barriers, are creating novel ecosystems that we don't fully understand. [...]

[] For forests, the major questions include how they respond to Anthropocene conditions and how they mitigate anthropogenic disturbances. Without abandoning current research, priorities include focusing on novel forests, urban environments, and anthropogenic biomes. [...]

[] Professional foresters and ecologists must share the responsibility of forest research and conservation with other professions from the natural and social sciences through new combinations of science such as eco-hydrology and social-ecological sciences. Because of the uncertainty of Anthropocene conditions, research that looks at new sustainable ecosystem dynamics and conservation actions must come together as never before.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13708337,~to-add-doi-URL,anthropocene,conservation,ecology,ecosystem-services,forest-dynamics,forest-resources,global-change,knowledge-integration,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708337},
  number = {6250}
}

@article{suweisResilienceReactivityGlobal2015,
  title = {Resilience and Reactivity of Global Food Security},
  author = {Suweis, Samir and Carr, Joel A. and Maritan, Amos and Rinaldo, Andrea and D'Odorico, Paolo},
  year = {2015},
  month = jun,
  volume = {112},
  pages = {6902--6907},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1507366112},
  abstract = {[Significance]

The past few decades have seen an intensification of international food trade and the increase in the number of countries that depend on food imports. As an effect of the associated globalization of food, local shocks in food production, combined with the adoption of new national or regional energy and trade policies, have recently led to global food crises. Here we develop a framework to investigate the coupled global food-population dynamics, and evaluate the effect of international trade on global food security. We find that, as the dependency on trade increases, the global food system is losing resilience and is becoming increasingly unstable and susceptible to conditions of crisis.

[Abstract]

The escalating food demand by a growing and increasingly affluent global population is placing unprecedented pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet, underpinning concerns over global food security and its sensitivity to shocks arising from environmental fluctuations, trade policies, and market volatility. Here, we use country-specific demographic records along with food production and trade data for the past 25 y to evaluate the stability and reactivity of the relationship between population dynamics and food availability. We develop a framework for the assessment of the resilience and the reactivity of the coupled population-food system and suggest that over the past two decades both its sensitivity to external perturbations and susceptibility to instability have increased.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13609043,~to-add-doi-URL,complexity,food-security,global-scale,resilience,system-of-systems},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13609043},
  number = {22}
}

@article{wingfieldPlantedForestHealth2015,
  title = {Planted Forest Health: {{The}} Need for a Global Strategy},
  author = {Wingfield, M. J. and Brockerhoff, E. G. and Wingfield, B. D. and Slippers, B.},
  year = {2015},
  month = aug,
  volume = {349},
  pages = {832--836},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aac6674},
  abstract = {Several key tree genera are used in planted forests worldwide, and these represent valuable global resources. Planted forests are increasingly threatened by insects and microbial pathogens, which are introduced accidentally and/or have adapted to new host trees. Globalization has hastened tree pest emergence, despite a growing awareness of the problem, improved understanding of the costs, and an increased focus on the importance of quarantine. To protect the value and potential of planted forests, innovative solutions and a better-coordinated global approach are needed. Mitigation strategies that are effective only in wealthy countries fail to contain invasions elsewhere in the world, ultimately leading to global impacts. Solutions to forest pest problems in the future should mainly focus on integrating management approaches globally, rather than single-country strategies. A global strategy to manage pest issues is vitally important and urgently needed.

[Excerpt] Forests and woodland ecosystems are a hugely important natural resource, easily overlooked and often undervalued (1-3). Globally, one in six people is estimated to rely on forests for food (3), and many more depend on forests for other critical ecosystem services, such as climate regulation, carbon storage, human health, and the genetic resources that underpin important wood and wood products-based industries. However, the health of forests, both natural and managed, is more heavily threatened at present than ever before (4-6). The most rapidly changing of these threats arise from direct and indirect anthropogenic influences on fungal pathogens and insect pests (hereafter referred to as pests), especially their distribution and patterns of interactions.

[] Here we focus on the importance of pests of planted forests, which are particularly vulnerable to invasive organisms yet are of growing importance as an economic resource and for various ecosystem services. Planted forests are typically of a single species. In plantations in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, they are usually of non-native species, such as species of Pinus, Eucalyptus, and Acacia. Northern Hemisphere plantations often comprise species of Pinus, Picea, Populus, Eucalyptus, and other genera, often in native areas or with closely related native species. These intensively managed tree farms cover huge areas [currently 7\,\% and potentially 20\,\% of global forests by the end of the century (1)], and they sustain major industries producing wood and pulp products. These tree genera have become natural resources of global importance, much like major agricultural crops, and are unlikely to be easily replaced. [...]

[Outlook]

The future of planted forests will be influenced by our ability to respond to damaging pests and the threat of biological invasions. The trends are clear, with at best a constant suite of emerging pests and sometimes a dramatically increasing rate of pest impacts. Increasing numbers of damaging hybrid genotypes and abiotic influences linked to global changes in the environment are further increasing the impact of these pests (4). It would be na\"ive to believe that local solutions such as quarantine at national borders can present a complete barrier to the global impact of pests on forests. For this reason, much greater focus will need to be placed on global strategies aimed at reducing pest movement and improving pest surveillance and incursion response, as well as optimizing the use of the most powerful tools to mitigate damage. 

[] Pest problems in forests are well recognized and of considerable concern in many parts of the world, but this is not balanced with the investment that would be required to make a significant difference. This is a situation that should change, but funding and coordinated efforts from across a variety of disciplines and institutions would be needed to make this possible. For example, all the tools and much of the knowledge exist to develop an international database on the diversity of insects and fungi associated with trees used in plantations [there are various unlinked databases on pests and diseases, and with various levels of accessibility, that could be linked via a central database such as, for example, QBOL: Quarantine organisms Barcode Of Life (www.qbol.org)]. Such a database could be powerfully linked to metadata related to host use, natural enemies, climate, surveillance tools and information, and more.

[] It is not possible to predict which tree pest problems are likely to be most important and damaging in the future. The so-called unknown unknowns and black swan diseases will remain a challenge (35). The appearance of new pests can still surprise local industries and governments, and responses are often erratic and inadequate. Through a more coordinated global investment in relevant research, it should be possible to respond more rapidly and mitigate problems more effectively in the future. There are also increasing opportunities to capture the imagination and support of the public, to create awareness, and to expand the capacity for surveillance beyond the limited number of specialists, through the implementation of citizen science and crowdsourcing mechanisms. [...]

[] Our capacity to deal with serious tree pest problems will remain minimal unless we can find the support and vision to launch a more global and holistic approach to study these problems and to implement mitigation strategies.

[] A global strategy for dealing with pests in planted forests is urgently needed and should include:

[::] A clearly identified body with the mandate to coordinate and raise funds for global responses to key pests and to monitor compliance with regulations.

[::] A central database on pests and diseases of key forest plantation species.

[::] Shared information on tools for and information from the surveillance of pests and pathogens in planted forests.

[::] Identification of measures with potentially high global impact for pest mitigation, and support for the development and sharing of capacity.

[::] More-structured systems for facilitating biological control, including global sharing of knowledge, best practices, and the selection of agents (organisms).

[::] Protection of the genetic resources of the key forest plantation genera.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13708354,~to-add-doi-URL,forest-pests,forest-resources,global-scale,integration-techniques,invasive-species,mitigation,quarantine},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708354},
  number = {6250}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{ceballos_accelerated_2015,
	title = {Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: {Entering} the sixth mass extinction},
	volume = {1},
	copyright = {Copyright © 2015, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.},
	issn = {2375-2548},
	shorttitle = {Accelerated modern human–induced species losses},
	url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/5/e1400253},
	doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1400253},
	abstract = {The oft-repeated claim that Earth’s biota is entering a sixth “mass extinction” depends on clearly demonstrating that current extinction rates are far above the “background” rates prevailing in the five previous mass extinctions. Earlier estimates of extinction rates have been criticized for using assumptions that might overestimate the severity of the extinction crisis. We assess, using extremely conservative assumptions, whether human activities are causing a mass extinction. First, we use a recent estimate of a background rate of 2 mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per 100 years (that is, 2 E/MSY), which is twice as high as widely used previous estimates. We then compare this rate with the current rate of mammal and vertebrate extinctions. The latter is conservatively low because listing a species as extinct requires meeting stringent criteria. Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 114 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way. Averting a dramatic decay of biodiversity and the subsequent loss of ecosystem services is still possible through intensified conservation efforts, but that window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years.
Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years.},
	language = {en},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2015-06-20},
	journal = {Science Advances},
	author = {Ceballos, Gerardo and Ehrlich, Paul R. and Barnosky, Anthony D. and García, Andrés and Pringle, Robert M. and Palmer, Todd M.},
	month = jun,
	year = {2015},
	note = {00000},
	keywords = {biodiversity, boundaries, collapse},
	pages = {e1400253},
	file = {Ceballos et al. - 2015 - Accelerated modern human–induced species losses E.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\RI5B87RH\\Ceballos et al. - 2015 - Accelerated modern human–induced species losses E.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{boteroEvolutionaryTippingPoints2015,
  title = {Evolutionary Tipping Points in the Capacity to Adapt to Environmental Change},
  author = {Botero, Carlos A. and Weissing, Franz J. and Wright, Jonathan and Rubenstein, Dustin R.},
  year = {2015},
  month = jan,
  volume = {112},
  pages = {184--189},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1408589111},
  abstract = {[Significance]

Environmental variation is becoming more frequent and unpredictable as a consequence of climate change, yet we currently lack the tools to evaluate the extent to which organisms may adapt to this phenomenon. Here we develop a model that explores these issues and use it to study how changes in the timescale and predictability of environmental variation may ultimately affect population viability. Our model indicates that, although populations can often cope with fairly large changes in these environmental parameters, on occasion they will collapse abruptly and go extinct. We characterize the conditions under which these evolutionary tipping points occur and discuss how vulnerability to such cryptic threats may depend on the genetic architecture and life history of the organisms involved.

[Abstract]

In an era of rapid climate change, there is a pressing need to understand how organisms will cope with faster and less predictable variation in environmental conditions. Here we develop a unifying model that predicts evolutionary responses to environmentally driven fluctuating selection and use this theoretical framework to explore the potential consequences of altered environmental cycles. We first show that the parameter space determined by different combinations of predictability and timescale of environmental variation is partitioned into distinct regions where a single mode of response (reversible phenotypic plasticity, irreversible phenotypic plasticity, bet-hedging, or adaptive tracking) has a clear selective advantage over all others. We then demonstrate that, although significant environmental changes within these regions can be accommodated by evolution, most changes that involve transitions between regions result in rapid population collapse and often extinction. Thus, the boundaries between response mode regions in our model correspond to evolutionary tipping points, where even minor changes in environmental parameters can have dramatic and disproportionate consequences on population viability. Finally, we discuss how different life histories and genetic architectures may influence the location of tipping points in parameter space and the likelihood of extinction during such transitions. These insights can help identify and address some of the cryptic threats to natural populations that are likely to result from any natural or human-induced change in environmental conditions. They also demonstrate the potential value of evolutionary thinking in the study of global climate change.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13475585,adaptation,climate-change,ecosystem-change,evolution,resilience,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13475585},
  number = {1}
}

@article{dakosCriticalSlowingEarly2014,
  title = {Critical Slowing down as Early Warning for the Onset of Collapse in Mutualistic Communities},
  author = {Dakos, Vasilis and Bascompte, Jordi},
  year = {2014},
  month = dec,
  volume = {111},
  pages = {17546--17551},
  issn = {1091-6490},
  doi = {10.1073/pnas.1406326111},
  abstract = {[Significance]

Little is known on whether structurally diverse ecological networks may respond abruptly to anthropogenic stress and even less on our ability to detect such responses in advance. By simulating mutualistic communities en route to a tipping point, we show how critical slowing-down indicators may be used as early warnings for the collapse of ecological networks. Our findings not only confirm the existence of the generic dynamical signatures of tipping points in ecological networks but also suggest a promising way for identifying most vulnerable components in a broad class of networks at the brink of collapse.

[Abstract]

Tipping points are crossed when small changes in external conditions cause abrupt unexpected responses in the current state of a system. In the case of ecological communities under stress, the risk of approaching a tipping point is unknown, but its stakes are high. Here, we test recently developed critical slowing-down indicators as early-warning signals for detecting the proximity to a potential tipping point in structurally complex ecological communities. We use the structure of 79 empirical mutualistic networks to simulate a scenario of gradual environmental change that leads to an abrupt first extinction event followed by a sequence of species losses until the point of complete community collapse. We find that critical slowing-down indicators derived from time series of biomasses measured at the species and community level signal the proximity to the onset of community collapse. In particular, we identify specialist species as likely the best-indicator species for monitoring the proximity of a community to collapse. In addition, trends in slowing-down indicators are strongly correlated to the timing of species extinctions. This correlation offers a promising way for mapping species resilience and ranking species risk to extinction in a given community. Our findings pave the road for combining theory on tipping points with patterns of network structure that might prove useful for the management of a broad class of ecological networks under global environmental change.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13459637,anthropogenic-impacts,ecological-networks,ecology,indicators,non-linearity,risk-assessment,system-catastrophe,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13459637},
  number = {49}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{harden_understanding_2014,
	title = {Understanding {Human}–{Landscape} {Interactions} in the “{Anthropocene}”},
	volume = {53},
	issn = {0364-152X, 1432-1009},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00267-013-0082-0},
	doi = {10.1007/s00267-013-0082-0},
	abstract = {This article summarizes the primary outcomes of an interdisciplinary workshop in 2010, sponsored by the U.S. National Science Foundation, focused on developing key questions and integrative themes for advancing the science of human–landscape systems. The workshop was a response to a grand challenge identified recently by the U.S. National Research Council (2010a)—“How will Earth’s surface evolve in the “Anthropocene?”—suggesting that new theories and methodological approaches are needed to tackle increasingly complex human–landscape interactions in the new era. A new science of human–landscape systems recognizes the interdependence of hydro-geomorphological, ecological, and human processes and functions. Advances within a range of disciplines spanning the physical, biological, and social sciences are therefore needed to contribute toward interdisciplinary research that lies at the heart of the science. Four integrative research themes were identified—thresholds/tipping points, time scales and time lags, spatial scales and boundaries, and feedback loops—serving as potential focal points around which theory can be built for human–landscape systems. Implementing the integrative themes requires that the research communities: (1) establish common metrics to describe and quantify human, biological, and geomorphological systems; (2) develop new ways to integrate diverse data and methods; and (3) focus on synthesis, generalization, and meta-analyses, as individual case studies continue to accumulate. Challenges to meeting these needs center on effective communication and collaboration across diverse disciplines spanning the natural and social scientific divide. Creating venues and mechanisms for sustained focused interdisciplinary collaborations, such as synthesis centers, becomes extraordinarily important for advancing the science.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2014-01-30},
	journal = {Environmental Management},
	author = {Harden, Carol P. and Chin, Anne and English, Mary R. and Fu, Rong and Galvin, Kathleen A. and Gerlak, Andrea K. and McDowell, Patricia F. and McNamara, Dylan E. and Peterson, Jeffrey M. and Poff, N. LeRoy and Rosa, Eugene A. and Solecki, William D. and Wohl, Ellen E.},
	month = jan,
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {anthropocene, collapse, sociology},
	pages = {4--13},
	file = {Harden et al. - 2014 - Understanding Human–Landscape Interactions in the .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\T8AEMI5H\\Harden et al. - 2014 - Understanding Human–Landscape Interactions in the .pdf:application/pdf}
}

@ARTICLE{Monastersky2014,
  author = {Richard Monastersky},
  title = {Biodiversity: Life - a status report},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2014},
  volume = {516},
  pages = {158–161},
  doi = {10.1038/516158a},
  file = {:Monastersky2014.pdf:PDF;a nice graphic:Monastersky2014graphic.pdf:PDF},
  owner = {Tiago Marques},
  timestamp = {2014.12.11}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{tainter_complexity_2014,
	title = {Complexity, problem-solving, sustainability and resilience},
	volume = {42},
	issn = {0961-3218},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09613218.2014.850599},
	doi = {10.1080/09613218.2014.850599},
	abstract = {Societies often solve problems by developing more complex technologies and institutions. Sustainability emerges from success at solving problems. Complexity is a powerful problem-solving tool, but increased complexity requires resources and carries a metabolic cost. Resilience, a condition of vulnerability or the capacity to recover from a setback, helps achieve sustainability goals. Resilient societies must have reserve problem-solving capacity to adjust to major challenges. The abilities of ancient and modern societies to respond to crises at different states of complexity illustrate the relationship between problem-solving capacity and resilience. Increasing complexity, effective at first, seems inexorably to accumulate and to evolve to diminishing returns, undermining the ability to solve future problems. These processes are illustrated through historical case studies, including urban resilience.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2014-02-11},
	journal = {Building Research \& Information},
	author = {Tainter, Joseph A. and Taylor, Temis G.},
	year = {2014},
	keywords = {collapse, limits-to-growth},
	pages = {168--181},
	file = {Tainter and Taylor - 2014 - Complexity, problem-solving, sustainability and re.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\UEHBXEPI\\Tainter and Taylor - 2014 - Complexity, problem-solving, sustainability and re.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{underwoodWorldDifference2014,
  title = {A World of Difference},
  author = {Underwood, Emily},
  year = {2014},
  month = may,
  volume = {344},
  pages = {820--821},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.344.6186.820},
  abstract = {Data show why inequality is a hot topic around the world. In the United States, the top 20\,\% of earners take home a whopping 51\,\% of income, and the share of income going to the top 1\,\% has ballooned in the past 30 years, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the World Top Incomes Database. Yet U.S. incomes are more equal than those of many countries, such as South Africa and Brazil, while Norway and Sweden are bastions of equality, as shown by data prepared especially for Science by researchers at the Luxembourg Income Study Center.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13197321,inequality,pareto-distribution,pareto-principle,poverty,statistics,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13197321},
  number = {6186}
}

@article{pringleAncientRoots2014,
  title = {The Ancient Roots of the 1\%},
  author = {Pringle, Heather},
  year = {2014},
  month = may,
  volume = {344},
  pages = {822--825},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.344.6186.822},
  abstract = {Researchers long blamed farming for the rise of inequality. They hypothesized that agriculture led to the production of surpluses and elites who controlled those surpluses. Now, archaeological and ethnographic analyses suggest that some ancient hunter-gatherers may have accumulated wealth by taking control of concentrated patches of wild foods. In this view, it is the ownership of small, resource-rich areas -- rather than farming itself -- that fosters inequality.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13197326,economy-bias,historical-perspective,inequality,pareto-distribution,pareto-principle},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13197326},
  number = {6186}
}

@article{hoekstraHumanityUnsustainableEnvironmental2014,
  title = {Humanity's Unsustainable Environmental Footprint},
  author = {Hoekstra, Arjen Y. and Wiedmann, Thomas O.},
  year = {2014},
  volume = {344},
  pages = {1114--1117},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1248365},
  abstract = {Within the context of Earth's limited natural resources and assimilation capacity, the current environmental footprint of humankind is not sustainable. Assessing land, water, energy, material, and other footprints along supply chains is paramount in understanding the sustainability, efficiency, and equity of resource use from the perspective of producers, consumers, and government. We review current footprints and relate those to maximum sustainable levels, highlighting the need for future work on combining footprints, assessing trade-offs between them, improving computational techniques, estimating maximum sustainable footprint levels, and benchmarking efficiency of resource use. Ultimately, major transformative changes in the global economy are necessary to reduce humanity's environmental footprint to sustainable levels.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007213,anthropocene,anthropogenic-impacts,ecology,economics,global-change,global-scale,review,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14007213},
  number = {6188}
}

@article{arnellGlobalAssessmentEffects2013,
  title = {A Global Assessment of the Effects of Climate Policy on the Impacts of Climate Change},
  author = {Arnell, N. W. and Lowe, J. A. and Brown, S. and Gosling, S. N. and Gottschalk, P. and Hinkel, J. and {Lloyd-Hughes}, B. and Nicholls, R. J. and Osborn, T. J. and Osborne, T. M. and Rose, G. A. and Smith, P. and Warren, R. F.},
  year = {2013},
  month = may,
  volume = {3},
  pages = {512--519},
  issn = {1758-678X},
  doi = {10.1038/nclimate1793},
  abstract = {This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here -- which gives a 50\,\% chance of remaining below a 2\,\textdegree C temperature rise target -- reduces impacts by 20-65\,\% by 2100 relative to a 'business-as-usual' pathway which reaches 4\,\textdegree C, and can delay impacts by several decades. The effects of mitigation policies vary between sectors and regions, and only a few are noticeable by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.},
  journal = {Nature Clim. Change},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11894824,assessment,climate-change,global-scale,science-policy-interface},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11894824},
  number = {5}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{aklin_political_2013,
	title = {Political {Competition}, {Path} {Dependence}, and the {Strategy} of {Sustainable} {Energy} {Transitions}},
	volume = {57},
	copyright = {©2013, Midwest Political Science Association},
	issn = {1540-5907},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ajps.12002/abstract},
	doi = {10.1111/ajps.12002},
	abstract = {Previous research emphasizes the importance of path dependence for sustainable energy transitions, but their strategic nature is frequently overlooked. We examine formally how exogenous shocks, such as changes in international energy prices, interact with positive reinforcement factors, such as the growing strength of the renewables advocacy coalition. We find that political competition modifies the effect of path dependence on policy and outcomes. Specifically, while “green” governments can use positive reinforcement mechanisms to lock in policy commitments (by creating green constituencies), “brown” governments strategically underprovide public support for renewable energy (to avoid creating green constituencies). The effect of positive reinforcement also decreases with international energy prices. Our empirical analysis shows that (1) political competition conditions the policy response to exogenous shocks and market failures, while (2) governments strategically exploit path dependence for political gain.},
	language = {en},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2014-02-15},
	journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
	author = {Aklin, Michaël and Urpelainen, Johannes},
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {collapse, lock-in},
	pages = {643--658},
	file = {Aklin and Urpelainen - 2013 - Political Competition, Path Dependence, and the St.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\MJ4BH7X3\\Aklin and Urpelainen - 2013 - Political Competition, Path Dependence, and the St.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{brookDoesTerrestrialBiosphere2013,
  title = {Does the Terrestrial Biosphere Have Planetary Tipping Points?},
  author = {Brook, Barry W. and Ellis, Erle C. and Perring, Michael P. and Mackay, Anson W. and Blomqvist, Linus},
  year = {2013},
  month = jul,
  volume = {28},
  pages = {396--401},
  issn = {0169-5347},
  doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2013.01.016},
  abstract = {Tipping points where systems shift radically and potentially irreversibly into a different state have received considerable attention in ecology. Although there is convincing evidence that human drivers can cause regime shifts at local and regional scales, the increasingly invoked concept of planetary scale tipping points in the terrestrial biosphere remains unconfirmed. By evaluating potential mechanisms and drivers, we conclude that spatial heterogeneity in drivers and responses, and lack of strong continental interconnectivity, probably induce relatively smooth changes at the global scale, without an expectation of marked tipping patterns. This implies that identifying critical points along global continua of drivers might be unfeasible and that characterizing global biotic change with single aggregates is inapt.},
  journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12090029,asynchronous-change,connectivity,fragmentation,global-change,global-scale,local-scale,multi-scale,smooth-transition,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12090029},
  number = {7}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kjellstrom_climate_2013,
	title = {Climate change threats to population health and well-being: the imperative of protective solutions that will last},
	volume = {6},
	issn = {1654-9880, 1654-9716},
	shorttitle = {Climate change threats to population health and well-being},
	url = {http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/20816},
	doi = {10.3402/gha.v6i0.20816},
	abstract = {BACKGROUND:

The observational evidence of the impacts of climate conditions on human health is accumulating. A variety of direct, indirect, and systemically mediated health effects have been identified. Excessive daily heat exposures create direct effects, such as heat stroke (and possibly death), reduce work productivity, and interfere with daily household activities. Extreme weather events, including storms, floods, and droughts, create direct injury risks and follow-on outbreaks of infectious diseases, lack of nutrition, and mental stress. Climate change will increase these direct health effects. Indirect effects include malnutrition and under-nutrition due to failing local agriculture, spread of vector-borne diseases and other infectious diseases, and mental health and other problems caused by forced migration from affected homes and workplaces. Examples of systemically mediated impacts on population health include famine, conflicts, and the consequences of large-scale adverse economic effects due to reduced human and environmental productivity. This article highlights links between climate change and non-communicable health problems, a major concern for global health beyond 2015.
DISCUSSION:

Detailed regional analysis of climate conditions clearly shows increasing temperatures in many parts of the world. Climate modelling indicates that by the year 2100 the global average temperature may have increased by 34°C unless fundamental reductions in current global trends for greenhouse gas emissions are achieved. Given other unforeseeable environmental, social, demographic, and geopolitical changes that may occur in a plus-4-degree world, that scenario may comprise a largely uninhabitable world for millions of people and great social and military tensions.
CONCLUSION:

It is imperative that we identify actions and strategies that are effective in reducing these increasingly likely threats to health and well-being. The fundamental preventive strategy is, of course, climate change mitigation by significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, especially long-acting carbon dioxide (CO(2)), and by increasing the uptake of CO(2) at the earth's surface. This involves urgent shifts in energy production from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, energy conservation in building design and urban planning, and reduced waste of energy for transport, building heating/cooling, and agriculture. It would also involve shifts in agricultural production and food systems to reduce energy and water use particularly in meat production. There is also potential for prevention via mitigation, adaptation, or resilience building actions, but for the large populations in tropical countries, mitigation of climate change is required to achieve health protection solutions that will last.},
	number = {0},
	urldate = {2016-12-13},
	journal = {Global Health Action},
	author = {Kjellstrom, Tord and McMichael, Anthony J.},
	month = apr,
	year = {2013},
	note = {00037},
	keywords = {collapse, climate, health-epidemics-pandemics, 4°C-and-beyond},
	file = {Kjellstrom and McMichael - 2013 - Climate change threats to population health and we.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\EX27WZA9\\Kjellstrom and McMichael - 2013 - Climate change threats to population health and we.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{whitemanClimateScienceVast2013,
  title = {Climate Science: {{Vast}} Costs of {{Arctic}} Change},
  author = {Whiteman, Gail and Hope, Chris and Wadhams, Peter},
  year = {2013},
  month = jul,
  volume = {499},
  pages = {401--403},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/499401a},
  abstract = {Methane released by melting permafrost will have global impacts that must be better modelled, say Gail Whiteman, Chris Hope and Peter Wadhams.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12527138,anthropogenic-impacts,artic-sea-ice,climate-change,global-change,methane,permafrost},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12527138},
  number = {7459}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{kroeker_impacts_2013,
	title = {Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming},
	volume = {19},
	issn = {1365-2486},
	shorttitle = {Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12179/abstract},
	doi = {10.1111/gcb.12179},
	abstract = {Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait-based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi-species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single-species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2016-12-01},
	journal = {Global Change Biology},
	author = {Kroeker, Kristy J. and Kordas, Rebecca L. and Crim, Ryan and Hendriks, Iris E. and Ramajo, Laura and Singh, Gerald S. and Duarte, Carlos M. and Gattuso, Jean-Pierre},
	month = jun,
	year = {2013},
	note = {00510},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, acidification, oceans},
	pages = {1884--1896},
	file = {Kroeker et al. - 2013 - Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\WAJF8JEN\\Kroeker et al. - 2013 - Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{moritz_future_2013,
	title = {The {Future} of {Species} {Under} {Climate} {Change}: {Resilience} or {Decline}?},
	volume = {341},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	shorttitle = {The {Future} of {Species} {Under} {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1237190},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1237190},
	abstract = {As climates change across already stressed ecosystems, there is no doubt that species will be affected, but to what extent and which will be most vulnerable remain uncertain. The fossil record suggests that most species persisted through past climate change, whereas forecasts of future impacts predict large-scale range reduction and extinction. Many species have altered range limits and phenotypes through 20th-century climate change, but responses are highly variable. The proximate causes of species decline relative to resilience remain largely obscure;however, recent examples of climate-associated species decline can help guide current management in parallel with ongoing research.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6145},
	urldate = {2014-08-01},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Moritz, C. and Agudo, R.},
	month = aug,
	year = {2013},
	keywords = {biodiversity, boundaries, collapse, climate},
	pages = {504--508},
	file = {Moritz and Agudo - 2013 - The Future of Species Under Climate Change Resili.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\GKB2FQED\\Moritz and Agudo - 2013 - The Future of Species Under Climate Change Resili.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{hughesMultiscaleRegimeShifts2013,
  title = {Multiscale Regime Shifts and Planetary Boundaries},
  author = {Hughes, Terry P. and Carpenter, Stephen and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan and Scheffer, Marten and Walker, Brian},
  year = {2013},
  month = jul,
  volume = {28},
  pages = {389--395},
  issn = {0169-5347},
  doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2013.05.019},
  abstract = {"The history of life reveals repeated planetary-scale tipping points."The pace of global changes is often slow even after a tipping point is exceeded."The risk of long-term damage to Earth systems that support humanity is increasing."Planetary-scale governance is needed to safeguard humans and ecosystems. Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries.},
  journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12459757,anthropocene,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,climate,climate-change,connectivity,ecosystem,ecosystem-resilience,global-change,global-scale,multi-scale,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12459757},
  number = {7}
}

@article{moraProjectedTimingClimate2013,
  title = {The Projected Timing of Climate Departure from Recent Variability},
  author = {Mora, Camilo and Frazier, Abby G. and Longman, Ryan J. and Dacks, Rachel S. and Walton, Maya M. and Tong, Eric J. and Sanchez, Joseph J. and Kaiser, Lauren R. and Stender, Yuko O. and Anderson, James M. and Ambrosino, Christine M. and {Fernandez-Silva}, Iria and Giuseffi, Louise M. and Giambelluca, Thomas W.},
  year = {2013},
  month = oct,
  volume = {502},
  pages = {183--187},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature12540},
  abstract = {Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 ({$\pm$}18\,years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 ({$\pm$}14\,years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.

[Excerpt] [...] The year at which a climate variable moves out of the historical bounds was estimated independently with data from the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP45) and 8.5 (RCP85), which included the period from 2006 to 2100. These pathways or scenarios represent contrasting mitigation efforts between a concerted rapid CO2 mitigation and a 'business-as-usual' scenario (CO2 concentrations could increase to 538 and 936\,p.p.m. by 2100, according to RCP45 and RCP85, respectively). A more aggressive mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6) was not analysed, because it was not consistently used among models, and the implicit mitigation effort is considered currently unfeasible. [...]},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12711758,~to-add-doi-URL,climate-change,climate-projections,rcp26},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12711758},
  number = {7470}
}

@article{wheelerClimateChangeImpacts2013,
  title = {Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security},
  author = {Wheeler, Tim and {von Braun}, Joachim},
  year = {2013},
  volume = {341},
  pages = {508--513},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1239402},
  abstract = {Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007177,adaptation,climate-change,food-security,global-scale,human-health,mitigation,resilience,water-resources},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14007177},
  number = {6145}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{rees_denial_2013,
	title = {Denial of {Catastrophic} {Risks}},
	volume = {339},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/339/6124/1123},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1236756},
	abstract = {In a media landscape saturated with sensational science stories and "end of the world" Hollywood productions, it may be hard to persuade the wide public that real catastrophes could arise as unexpectedly as the 2008 financial crisis, and have a far greater impact. Society could be dealt shattering blows by the misapplication of technologies that exist already or could emerge within the coming decades. Some of the scenarios that have been envisaged may indeed be science fiction, but others may be disquietingly real. I believe these "existential risks" deserve more serious study. Those fortunate enough to live in the developed world fret too much about minor hazards of everyday life: improbable air crashes, possible carcinogens in food, low radiation doses, and so forth. But we should be more concerned about events that have not yet happened but which, if they occurred even once, could cause worldwide devastation.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6124},
	urldate = {2014-07-07},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Rees, Martin},
	month = mar,
	year = {2013},
	pmid = {23471373},
	keywords = {collapse, denial, existential-risks, psychology},
	pages = {1123--1123},
	file = {Rees - 2013 - Denial of Catastrophic Risks.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\AK3MPU8E\\Rees - 2013 - Denial of Catastrophic Risks.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{lentonOriginPlanetaryscaleTipping2013,
  title = {On the Origin of Planetary-Scale Tipping Points},
  author = {Lenton, Timothy M. and Williams, Hywel T. P.},
  year = {2013},
  month = jul,
  volume = {28},
  pages = {380--382},
  issn = {0169-5347},
  doi = {10.1016/j.tree.2013.06.001},
  abstract = {Tipping points are recognised in many systems, including ecosystems and elements of the climate system. But can the biosphere as a whole tip and, if so, how? Past global tipping points were rare and occurred in the coupled planetary-scale dynamics of the Earth system, not in the local-scale dynamics of its weakly interacting component ecosystems. Yet, evolutionary innovations have triggered past global transformations, suggesting that tipping point theory needs to go beyond bifurcations and networks to include evolution.},
  journal = {Trends in Ecology \& Evolution},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-12459756,climate,ecosystem-resilience,evolution,global-scale,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-12459756},
  number = {7}
}

@article{barnoskyApproachingStateShift2012,
  title = {Approaching a State Shift in {{Earth}}/'s Biosphere},
  author = {Barnosky, Anthony D. and Hadly, Elizabeth A. and Bascompte, Jordi and Berlow, Eric L. and Brown, James H. and Fortelius, Mikael and Getz, Wayne M. and Harte, John and Hastings, Alan and Marquet, Pablo A. and Martinez, Neo D. and Mooers, Arne and Roopnarine, Peter and Vermeij, Geerat and Williams, John W. and Gillespie, Rosemary and Kitzes, Justin and Marshall, Charles and Matzke, Nicholas and Mindell, David P. and Revilla, Eloy and Smith, Adam B.},
  year = {2012},
  month = jun,
  volume = {486},
  pages = {52--58},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature11018},
  abstract = {Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale  tipping point  highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-10753680,climate-change,global-scale,irreversibility,multiauthor,state-shift,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-10753680},
  number = {7401}
}

Website  abstract   bibtex   

@article{
 title = {Pseudo-linearity of the shrinkage coefficient and a sensitivity study of collapse and shrinkage functions},
 type = {article},
 year = {2012},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Bulk density,Collapse,Drying,Experimental validation,Food,Mathematical simulations,Modeling,Porosity,Sensitivity study,Volume shrinkage coefficient},
 pages = {808-819},
 volume = {48},
 websites = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0963996912002165},
 month = {10},
 id = {ee61b357-14e8-3491-96ab-5e8bdb067a45},
 created = {2016-04-04T08:04:53.000Z},
 accessed = {2016-04-04},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {9969bc68-8302-3563-8c57-5c40ce3d5acd},
 last_modified = {2016-04-16T08:41:54.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {true},
 confirmed = {true},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {Several empirical/theoretical models are available in the open literature to predict the volume shrinkage coefficient (Sv). However, the few reported theoretical models do not consider the variation of the porosity as a function of water content during drying. In this contribution, a theoretical model was used to describe Sv as a function of water content. This model takes into account the variation of both the bulk density and the porosity during the entire drying process. Furthermore, the initial amount of air contained in the product at the beginning of the process is also included in the model. The final expression of the present model is a pseudo-linear relationship where the intercept and the slope are moisture-dependent. The model was extensively validated with various experimental data obtained by several groups for different products dried by various technologies. The results showed excellent agreement between the model and the experimental data. Comparison between this model and other published models revealed that the present model gives comparable predictions or even the lowest error when compared to some empirical models. In order to understand the mechanisms occurring during drying , collapse and shrinkage functions were used for eggplant vacuum-dried at two different pressures. Partial shrinkage and partial collapse were observed under these two pressures. However, low pressure led to less deterioration in terms of shrinkage and collapse phenomena. A sensitivity study of collapse and shrinkage functions involved in this model is also presented. In addition to leading to accurate predictions, this model allows getting phenomenological insights into the mechanisms responsible for shrinkage occurring during drying processes.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Khalloufi, Seddik and Almeida-Rivera, Cristhian and Janssen, Jo and Bongers, Peter},
 journal = {Food Research International},
 number = {2}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{battiston_debtrank:_2012,
	title = {{DebtRank}: {Too} {Central} to {Fail}? {Financial} {Networks}, the {FED} and {Systemic} {Risk}},
	volume = {2},
	copyright = {2012 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {2045-2322},
	shorttitle = {{DebtRank}},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/srep00541.},
	doi = {10.1038/srep00541},
	abstract = {DebtRank: Too Central to Fail? Financial Networks, the FED and Systemic Risk},
	language = {En},
	urldate = {2018-02-03},
	journal = {Scientific Reports},
	author = {Battiston, Stefano and Puliga, Michelangelo and Kaushik, Rahul and Tasca, Paolo and Caldarelli, Guido},
	month = aug,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {finance, collapse},
	pages = {541},
	file = {Battiston et al. - 2012 - DebtRank Too Central to Fail Financial Networks,.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\8C9CYSIX\\Battiston et al. - 2012 - DebtRank Too Central to Fail Financial Networks,.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{choat_global_2012,
	title = {Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought},
	volume = {491},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v491/n7426/abs/nature11688.html},
	abstract = {Shifts in rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures associated with climate change are likely to cause widespread forest decline in regions where droughts are predicted to increase in duration and severity1. One primary cause of productivity loss and plant mortality during drought is hydraulic failure2,3,4. Drought stress creates trapped gas emboli in the water transport system, which reduces the ability of plants to supply water to leaves for photosynthetic gas exchange and can ultimately result in desiccation and mortality. At present we lack a clear picture of how thresholds to hydraulic failure vary across a broad range of species and environments, despite many individual experiments. Here we draw together published and unpublished data on the vulnerability of the transport system to drought-induced embolism for a large number of woody species, with a view to examining the likely consequences of climate change for forest biomes. We show that 70\% of 226 forest species from 81 sites worldwide operate with narrow ({\textless}1 megapascal) hydraulic safety margins against injurious levels of drought stress and therefore potentially face long-term reductions in productivity and survival if temperature and aridity increase as predicted for many regions across the globe5,6. Safety margins are largely independent of mean annual precipitation, showing that there is global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought, with all forest biomes equally vulnerable to hydraulic failure regardless of their current rainfall environment. These findings provide insight into why drought-induced forest decline is occurring not only in arid regions but also in wet forests not normally considered at drought risk7,8.},
	number = {7426},
	urldate = {2015-01-05},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Choat, Brendan and Jansen, Steven and Brodribb, Tim J. and Cochard, Hervé and Delzon, Sylvain and Bhaskar, Radika and Bucci, Sandra J. and Feild, Taylor S. and Gleason, Sean M. and Hacke, Uwe G.},
	year = {2012},
	note = {00236},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, forests},
	pages = {752--755},
	file = {Choat et al. - 2012 - Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\E7VN733E\\Choat et al. - 2012 - Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{shepherd_reconciled_2012,
	title = {A {Reconciled} {Estimate} of {Ice}-{Sheet} {Mass} {Balance}},
	volume = {338},
	issn = {0036-8075, 1095-9203},
	url = {http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6111/1183},
	doi = {10.1126/science.1228102},
	abstract = {We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.},
	language = {en},
	number = {6111},
	urldate = {2013-01-13},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Shepherd, Andrew and Ivins, Erik R. and A, Geruo and Barletta, Valentina R. and Bentley, Mike J. and Bettadpur, Srinivas and Briggs, Kate H. and Bromwich, David H. and Forsberg, René and Galin, Natalia and Horwath, Martin and Jacobs, Stan and Joughin, Ian and King, Matt A. and Lenaerts, Jan T. M. and Li, Jilu and Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M. and Luckman, Adrian and Luthcke, Scott B. and McMillan, Malcolm and Meister, Rakia and Milne, Glenn and Mouginot, Jeremie and Muir, Alan and Nicolas, Julien P. and Paden, John and Payne, Antony J. and Pritchard, Hamish and Rignot, Eric and Rott, Helmut and Sørensen, Louise Sandberg and Scambos, Ted A. and Scheuchl, Bernd and Schrama, Ernst J. O. and Smith, Ben and Sundal, Aud V. and Angelen, Jan H. van and Berg, Willem J. van de and Broeke, Michiel R. van den and Vaughan, David G. and Velicogna, Isabella and Wahr, John and Whitehouse, Pippa L. and Wingham, Duncan J. and Yi, Donghui and Young, Duncan and Zwally, H. Jay},
	month = nov,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
	pages = {1183--1189},
	file = {Shepherd et al. - 2012 - A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\4Z4THZ7T\\Shepherd et al. - 2012 - A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{levin_overcoming_2012,
	title = {Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems: constraining our future selves to ameliorate global climate change},
	volume = {45},
	issn = {00322687},
	shorttitle = {Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems},
	url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&AuthType=athens,cookie,ip,url,uid&db=bth&AN=76171211&site=ehost-live},
	doi = {10.1007/s11077-012-9151-0},
	abstract = {Most policy-relevant work on climate change in the social sciences either analyzes costs and benefits of particular policy options against important but often narrow sets of objectives or attempts to explain past successes or failures. We argue that an 'applied forward reasoning' approach is better suited for social scientists seeking to address climate change, which we characterize as a 'super wicked' problem comprising four key features: time is running out; those who cause the problem also seek to provide a solution; the central authority needed to address it is weak or non-existent; and, partly as a result, policy responses discount the future irrationally. These four features combine to create a policy-making 'tragedy' where traditional analytical techniques are ill equipped to identify solutions, even when it is well recognized that actions must take place soon to avoid catastrophic future impacts. To overcome this tragedy, greater attention must be given to the generation of path-dependent policy interventions that can 'constrain our future collective selves.' Three diagnostic questions result that orient policy analysis toward understanding how to trigger sticky interventions that, through progressive incremental trajectories, entrench support over time while expanding the populations they cover. Drawing especially from the literature on path dependency, but inverting it to develop policy responses going forward, we illustrate the plausibility of our framework for identifying new areas of research and new ways to think about policy interventions to address super wicked problems.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2014-02-15},
	journal = {Policy Sciences},
	author = {Levin, Kelly and Cashore, Benjamin and Bernstein, Steven and Auld, Graeme},
	month = jun,
	year = {2012},
	keywords = {collapse, lock-in},
	pages = {123--152},
	file = {Levin et al. - 2012 - Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems c.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\N29PNB3K\\Levin et al. - 2012 - Overcoming the tragedy of super wicked problems c.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{spiegelhalterVisualizingUncertaintyFuture2011,
  title = {Visualizing Uncertainty about the Future},
  author = {Spiegelhalter, David and Pearson, Mike and Short, Ian},
  year = {2011},
  month = sep,
  volume = {333},
  pages = {1393--1400},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1191181},
  abstract = {We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics, and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience. Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities. Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed knowledge--or from essential indeterminacy about the future--remains a challenge.},
  journal = {Science (New York, N.Y.)},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-9753772,communicating-uncertainty,statistics,uncertainty,visualization},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-9753772},
  number = {6048}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{sharot_how_2011,
	title = {How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality},
	volume = {14},
	url = {https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3204264/},
	doi = {10.1038/nn.2949},
	abstract = {Unrealistic optimism is a pervasive human trait influencing domains ranging from personal relationships to politics and finance. How people maintain unrealistic optimism, despite frequently encountering information that challenges those biased beliefs, ...},
	language = {en},
	number = {11},
	urldate = {2016-08-29},
	journal = {Nature neuroscience},
	author = {Sharot, Tali and Korn, Christoph W. and Dolan, Raymond J.},
	year = {2011},
	pmid = {21983684},
	note = {00000 },
	keywords = {psychology, collapse, denial},
	pages = {1475},
	file = {Sharot et al. - 2011 - How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\5SS9RPHM\\Sharot et al. - 2011 - How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@book{mcnally_david_monsters_2011,
	title = {Monsters of the market : zombies, vampires, and global capitalism},
	publisher = {Brill},
	author = {{McNally, David}},
	year = {2011},
	note = {00000},
	keywords = {collapse, philosophy, sociology, storytelling, capitalism},
	file = {McNally, David - 2011 - Monsters of the market  zombies, vampires, and gl.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\SZ3NPBHV\\McNally, David - 2011 - Monsters of the market  zombies, vampires, and gl.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  bibtex   

@article{pelletier_energy_2011,
	title = {Energy intensity of agriculture and food systems},
	url = {http://www.annualreviews.org/eprint/eMDcZEJ2eIzPiYcnypqM/full/10.1146/annurev-environ-081710-161014?utm_source=&utm_medium=environ&utm_campaign=eprint},
	urldate = {2014-12-26},
	author = {Pelletier, Nathan and Audsley, Eric and Brodt, Sonja and Garnett, Tara and Henriksson, Patrik and Kendall, Alissa and Kramer, Klaas Jan and Murphy, David and Nemecek, Thomas and Troell, Max},
	year = {2011},
	note = {00051},
	keywords = {collapse, agriculture-food-famine},
	file = {Pelletier et al. - 2011 - Energy intensity of agriculture and food systems.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\XZB59GHG\\Pelletier et al. - 2011 - Energy intensity of agriculture and food systems.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{gai_complexity_2011,
	title = {Complexity, concentration and contagion},
	volume = {58},
	abstract = {This paper develops a network model of interbank lending in which unsecured claims, repo activity and shocks to the haircuts applied to collateral assume centre stage. We show how systemic liquidity crises of the kind associated with the interbank market collapse of 2007–2008 can arise within such a framework, with funding contagion spreading widely through the web of interlinkages. Our model illustrates how greater complexity and concentration in the financial network may amplify this fragility. The analysis suggests how a range of policy measures – including tougher liquidity regulation, macro-prudential policy, and surcharges for systemically important financial institutions – could make the financial system more resilient.},
	number = {5},
	urldate = {2014-10-11},
	journal = {Journal of Monetary Economics},
	author = {Gai, Prasanna and Haldane, Andrew and Kapadia, Sujit},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {finance, collapse, systemic-risks},
	pages = {453--470},
	file = {Gai et al. - 2011 - Complexity, concentration and contagion.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\PA5J2K4D\\Gai et al. - 2011 - Complexity, concentration and contagion.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{haldane_systemic_2011,
	title = {Systemic risk in banking ecosystems},
	volume = {469},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v469/n7330/abs/nature09659.html},
	abstract = {In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.},
	number = {7330},
	urldate = {2013-02-07},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Haldane, A. G. and May, R. M.},
	year = {2011},
	keywords = {finance, collapse, systemic-risks},
	pages = {351--355},
	file = {Haldane and May - 2011 - Systemic risk in banking ecosystems.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\HM7ASEQV\\Haldane and May - 2011 - Systemic risk in banking ecosystems.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{
 title = {Mathematical model for simulating the springback effect of gel matrixes during drying processes and its experimental validation},
 type = {article},
 year = {2011},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Collapse,Drying,Gels,Modeling,Shrinkage,Simulations,Springback,Swelling,Volume expansion},
 pages = {1972-1980},
 volume = {29},
 id = {a2dfc8b1-1a35-387d-907c-11a3f5b73f45},
 created = {2016-04-06T11:56:20.000Z},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {9969bc68-8302-3563-8c57-5c40ce3d5acd},
 last_modified = {2016-04-16T08:41:55.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {true},
 confirmed = {false},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {Volume change is one a fundamental aspect in characterization of drying processes. Several attempts to simulate the volume change during drying have been reported in the open literature. However, so far no theoretical approach has been used to support these simulations, especially when it comes to dealing with the springback effect. In this contribution, a theoretical model was built to predict the volume change including the springback phenomenon. The theory behind the present model is based on three physical mechanisms, which are represented by the shrinkage, collapse, and swelling functions. The resulting set of equations was implemented and solved in MATLAB(Mathworks, Inc., Natick, MA) by formulating the model as a constrained optimization problem. Data for three gels reported by an independent group and characterized by different profiles in terms of the springback effect were used to validate the model. This validation showed excellent agreement between the predictions obtained by this model and the experimental data. The average error lies somewhere between 1.6 and 4.4% depending on the gel. The information extracted from the parameters included in this theoretical model should assist in understanding the mechanisms that occur during processes involving moisture/solvent changes. Hence, the present model can be used as a reliable tool to predict volume changes and to understand the dynamic mechanisms involved in pore formation/disappearance during drying processes. © 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Khalloufi, S. and Almeida-Rivera, C. and Janssen, J. and van-der-Vaart, M. and Bongers, P.},
 journal = {Drying Technology},
 number = {16}
}

Website  abstract   bibtex   

@book{
 title = {Sensitivity of shrinkage and collapse functions involved in pore formation during drying},
 type = {book},
 year = {2011},
 source = {Computer Aided Chemical Engineering - 21st European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Porosity,collapse,drying,sensitivity,shrinkage,theoretical model},
 pages = {21-25},
 volume = {29},
 websites = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780444537119500055},
 publisher = {Elsevier},
 series = {Computer Aided Chemical Engineering},
 id = {08c40554-b03c-3cb5-afc7-5e76a8d9e62b},
 created = {2016-04-04T08:04:50.000Z},
 accessed = {2016-04-04},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {9969bc68-8302-3563-8c57-5c40ce3d5acd},
 last_modified = {2016-04-16T08:41:54.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {true},
 confirmed = {true},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {The pore formation during drying is controlled by two mechanisms which are represented by two functions. These functions are expected to be universal, thus recurrent and applicable to relevant physical properties of the products during drying. This contribution aims at studying the sensitivity of shrinkage and collapse functions in predicting the porosity as a function of moisture content. A set of experimental data from an independent research group using air-drying of carrot were used to evaluate the sensitivity of these two functions. The results of this analysis showed that (i) at high moisture content, the porosity is not sensitive to the shrinkage function whatever the value of the collapse function is, (ii) in the case of air drying and at low moisture content, the porosity could be strongly affected by the shrinkage function, and (iii) the collapse function has a strong effect on porosity in products with a high volume of initial air. These findings are reported here for the first time and the approach used in this contribution could be very relevant to assess other parameters involved in drying processes such as bulk density and shrinkage coefficient.},
 bibtype = {book},
 author = {Khalloufi, Seddik and Almeida-Rivera, Cristhian and Jansen, Jo and Van-Der-Vaart, Marcel and Bongers, Peter}
}

@article{steffenAnthropoceneGlobalChange2011,
  title = {The {{Anthropocene}}: From Global Change to Planetary Stewardship},
  author = {Steffen, Will and Persson, {\AA}sa and Deutsch, Lisa and Zalasiewicz, Jan and Williams, Mark and Richardson, Katherine and Crumley, Carole and Crutzen, Paul and Folke, Carl and Gordon, Line and Molina, Mario and Ramanathan, Veerabhadran and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan and Scheffer, Marten and Schellnhuber, Hans J. and Svedin, Uno},
  year = {2011},
  month = oct,
  volume = {40},
  pages = {739--761},
  issn = {0044-7447},
  doi = {10.1007/s13280-011-0185-x},
  abstract = {Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced. However, in the twenty-first century, we face scarcity in critical resources, the degradation of ecosystem services, and the erosion of the planet's capability to absorb our wastes. Equity issues remain stubbornly difficult to solve. This situation is novel in its speed, its global scale and its threat to the resilience of the Earth System. The advent of the Anthropence, the time interval in which human activities now rival global geophysical processes, suggests that we need to fundamentally alter our relationship with the planet we inhabit. Many approaches could be adopted, ranging from geo-engineering solutions that purposefully manipulate parts of the Earth System to becoming active stewards of our own life support system. The Anthropocene is a reminder that the Holocene, during which complex human societies have developed, has been a stable, accommodating environment and is the only state of the Earth System that we know for sure can support contemporary society. The need to achieve effective planetary stewardship is urgent. As we go further into the Anthropocene, we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.},
  journal = {AMBIO},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-11729783,adaptation,anthropocene,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,disasters,ecosystem-resilience,global-change,global-scale,homeostasis,non-linearity,tipping-point},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-11729783},
  number = {7}
}

@book{wuthnow_be_2010,
	address = {Oxford ; New York},
	title = {Be very afraid: the cultural response to terror, pandemics, environmental devastation, nuclear annihilation, and other threats},
	isbn = {978-0-19-973087-2},
	abstract = {Examines the human response to existential threats--once a matter for theology, but now looming before us in multiple forms. Nuclear weapons, pandemics, global warming: each threatens to destroy the planet, or at least to annihilate our species. Freud, Wuthnow notes, famously taught that the standard psychological response to an overwhelming danger is denial. In fact, Wuthnow argues, the opposite is true: we seek ways of positively meeting the threat, of doing something--anything--even if it's wasteful and time-consuming. It would be one thing if our responses were merely pointless, Wuthnow observes, but they can actually be harmful.--From publisher description},
	publisher = {Oxford University Press},
	author = {Wuthnow, Robert},
	year = {2010},
	keywords = {psychology, collapse, sociology, grief},
	file = {Robert Wuthnow-Be Very Afraid_ The Cultural Response to Terror, Pandemics, Environmental Devastation, Nuclear Annihilation, and Other Threats-Oxford University Press, USA (2010).pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\K5THP7N8\\Robert Wuthnow-Be Very Afraid_ The Cultural Response to Terror, Pandemics, Environmental Devastation, Nuclear Annihilation, and Other Threats-Oxford University Press, USA (2010).pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{
 title = {A fundamental approach and its experimental validation to simulate density as a function of moisture content during drying processes},
 type = {article},
 year = {2010},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Bulk density,Collapse,Drying,Experimental validation,Food,Mathematical simulation,Modeling,Particle density,Shrinkage,Theoretical model},
 id = {86e5c023-2355-368d-b65b-837f64291c31},
 created = {2016-04-06T11:54:57.000Z},
 file_attached = {true},
 profile_id = {9969bc68-8302-3563-8c57-5c40ce3d5acd},
 last_modified = {2016-04-16T08:41:54.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {true},
 confirmed = {false},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {Although several empirical models are available in the literature to predict density in solid matrices, only a very limited number of theoretical models have been reported. So far, no model considered the possible variation in the initial air volume existing at the beginning of the drying process. In this contribution, a theoretical model to predict bulk density of dried materials was built by considering two mechanisms that might occur during drying processes. These mechanisms are represented by collapse and shrinkage functions. The predictions obtained by this theoretical model were extensively validated with experimental data published by several independent groups for different food products dried with different technologies. In all these cases, the model gave excellent agreement with the experimental data regardless the topology of the curve bulk density versus moisture content. The model was also compared with other published models. The result of this comparison revealed that the errors resulting from the predictions obtained by the present model are among the smallest. Shrinkage and collapse functions were used to analyze the mechanisms by which bulk density varies during air-drying and freeze-drying. The model showed that both shrinkage and collapse phenomena are dramatically involved during air-drying. However, in the case of freeze-drying, no collapse is observed and only partial shrinkage is taking place. Hence, the present model can be used as a tool to predict the bulk density with excellent accuracy, to understand the dynamic mechanisms involved during drying. Moreover, this model can be incorporated to other models involving the variation of density as a function of moisture. Crown Copyright ?? 2009.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Khalloufi, Seddik and Almeida-Rivera, Cristhian and Bongers, Peter},
 journal = {Journal of Food Engineering}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{drake_early_2010,
	title = {Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorating environments},
	volume = {467},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature09389},
	doi = {10.1038/nature09389},
	abstract = {During the decline to extinction, animal populations may present dynamical phenomena not exhibited by robust populations1, 2. Some of these phenomena, such as the scaling of demographic variance, are related to small size3, 4, 5, 6 whereas others result from density-dependent nonlinearities7. Although understanding the causes of population extinction has been a central problem in theoretical biology for decades8, the ability to anticipate extinction has remained elusive9. Here we argue that the causes of a population’s decline are central to the predictability of its extinction. Specifically, environmental degradation may cause a tipping point in population dynamics, corresponding to a bifurcation in the underlying population growth equations, beyond which decline to extinction is almost certain. In such cases, imminent extinction will be signalled by critical slowing down (CSD). We conducted an experiment with replicate laboratory populations of Daphnia magna to test this hypothesis. We show that populations crossing a transcritical bifurcation, experimentally induced by the controlled decline in environmental conditions, show statistical signatures of CSD after the onset of environmental deterioration and before the critical transition. Populations in constant environments did not have these patterns. Four statistical indicators all showed evidence of the approaching bifurcation as early as 110 days ({\textasciitilde}8 generations) before the transition occurred. Two composite indices improved predictability, and comparative analysis showed that early warning signals based solely on observations in deteriorating environments without reference populations for standardization were hampered by the presence of transient dynamics before the onset of deterioration, pointing to the importance of reliable baseline data before environmental deterioration begins. The universality of bifurcations in models of population dynamics suggests that this phenomenon should be general10, 11, 12.},
	number = {7314},
	urldate = {2016-12-26},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Drake, John M. and Griffen, Blaine D.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2010},
	keywords = {collapse, early-warning-signals},
	pages = {456--459},
	file = {Drake and Griffen - 2010 - Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorati.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\D59PR4W7\\Drake and Griffen - 2010 - Early warning signals of extinction in deteriorati.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{vorosmartyGlobalThreatsHuman2010,
  title = {Global Threats to Human Water Security and River Biodiversity},
  author = {V{\"o}r{\"o}smarty, C. J. and McIntyre, P. B. and Gessner, M. O. and Dudgeon, D. and Prusevich, A. and Green, P. and Glidden, S. and Bunn, S. E. and Sullivan, C. A. and Liermann, C. Reidy and Davies, P. M.},
  year = {2010},
  month = sep,
  volume = {467},
  pages = {555--561},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature09440},
  abstract = {Protecting the world's freshwater resources requires diagnosing threats over a broad range of scales, from global to local. Here we present the first worldwide synthesis to jointly consider human and biodiversity perspectives on water security using a spatial framework that quantifies multiple stressors and accounts for downstream impacts. We find that nearly 80\,\% of the world's population is exposed to high levels of threat to water security. Massive investment in water technology enables rich nations to offset high stressor levels without remedying their underlying causes, whereas less wealthy nations remain vulnerable. A similar lack of precautionary investment jeopardizes biodiversity, with habitats associated with 65\,\% of continental discharge classified as moderately to highly threatened. The cumulative threat framework offers a tool for prioritizing policy and management responses to this crisis, and underscores the necessity of limiting threats at their source instead of through costly remediation of symptoms in order to assure global water security for both humans and freshwater biodiversity.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7926581,biodiversity,integrated-water-resources-management,multi-criteria-decision-analysis,water-resources,water-scarcity},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-7926581},
  number = {7315}
}

@article{butchartGlobalBiodiversityIndicators2010,
  title = {Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines},
  author = {Butchart, Stuart H. M. and Walpole, Matt and Collen, Ben and {van Strien}, Arco and Scharlemann, J{\"o}rn P. W. and Almond, Rosamunde E. A. and Baillie, Jonathan E. M. and Bomhard, Bastian and Brown, Claire and Bruno, John and Carpenter, Kent E. and Carr, Genevi{\`e}ve M. and Chanson, Janice and Chenery, Anna M. and Csirke, Jorge and Davidson, Nick C. and Dentener, Frank and Foster, Matt and Galli, Alessandro and Galloway, James N. and Genovesi, Piero and Gregory, Richard D. and Hockings, Marc and Kapos, Valerie and Lamarque, Jean-Francois and Leverington, Fiona and Loh, Jonathan and McGeoch, Melodie A. and McRae, Louise and Minasyan, Anahit and Morcillo, Monica H. and Oldfield, Thomasina E. E. and Pauly, Daniel and Quader, Suhel and Revenga, Carmen and Sauer, John R. and Skolnik, Benjamin and Spear, Dian and {Stanwell-Smith}, Damon and Stuart, Simon N. and Symes, Andy and Tierney, Megan and Tyrrell, Tristan D. and Vi{\'e}, Jean-Christophe and Watson, Reg},
  year = {2010},
  month = may,
  volume = {328},
  pages = {1164--1168},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1187512},
  abstract = {In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-7557349,adaptation,aggregated-indices,alien-species,biodiversity,biodiversity-impacts,climate,communicating-uncertainty,ecological-footprint,forest-resources,global-scale,indicators,indices,multiauthor,nitrogen-deposition,overexploited-fish-stocks,scientific-communication,sustainability},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-7557349},
  number = {5982}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{underdal_complexity_2010,
	series = {Governance, {Complexity} and {Resilience}},
	title = {Complexity and challenges of long-term environmental governance},
	volume = {20},
	issn = {0959-3780},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378010000117},
	doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.02.005},
	abstract = {Some important processes of environmental change – including those of climate change and loss of biodiversity – share three characteristics that make them extremely demanding challenges of governance. First, time-lags between human action and environmental effect are very long, often extending beyond one human generation. Second, problems are embedded in highly complex systems that are not well understood. Third, these problems involve global collective goods of a type that links them to a wide range of human activities and leaves them beyond the scope of unilateral solutions. Social science research offers two essentially different models of collective response to severe challenges. One portrays effective response as collective action through central leadership and contraction of power. The other conceives of societal response as involving a variety of local activities undertaken by subunits of a complex and decentralised system. I argue that both models have considerable merit, but also that they respond to different types of challenges. Therefore, useful insights can be gained by specifying more precisely the circumstances under which each model applies.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2014-07-22},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Underdal, Arild},
	month = aug,
	year = {2010},
	keywords = {governance, collapse},
	pages = {386--393},
	file = {Underdal - 2010 - Complexity and challenges of long-term environment.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\HTJG9TK3\\Underdal - 2010 - Complexity and challenges of long-term environment.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  bibtex   

@article{nisbet_communicating_2009,
	title = {Communicating {Climate} {Change}: {Why} {Frames} {Matter} for {Public} {Engagement}},
	volume = {51},
	issn = {0013-9157},
	shorttitle = {Communicating {Climate} {Change}},
	url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3200/ENVT.51.2.12-23},
	doi = {10.3200/ENVT.51.2.12-23},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2014-02-12},
	journal = {Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development},
	author = {Nisbet, Matthew C.},
	year = {2009},
	keywords = {psychology, collapse, climate, denial},
	pages = {12--23},
	file = {Nisbet - 2009 - Communicating Climate Change Why Frames Matter fo.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\7KTKI8JM\\Nisbet - 2009 - Communicating Climate Change Why Frames Matter fo.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{davidson_multiple_2009,
	title = {Multiple ecological pathways to extinction in mammals},
	volume = {106},
	issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
	url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/106/26/10702},
	doi = {10.1073/pnas.0901956106},
	abstract = {As human population and resource demands continue to grow, biodiversity conservation has never been more critical. About one-quarter of all mammals are in danger of extinction, and more than half of all mammal populations are in decline. A major priority for conservation science is to understand the ecological traits that predict extinction risk and the interactions among those predictors that make certain species more vulnerable than others. Here, using a new database of nearly 4,500 mammal species, we use decision-tree models to quantify the multiple interacting factors associated with extinction risk. We show that the correlates of extinction risk vary widely across mammals and that there are unique pathways to extinction for species with different lifestyles and combinations of traits. We find that risk is relative and that all kinds of mammals, across all body sizes, can be at risk depending on their specific ecologies. Our results increase the understanding of extinction processes, generate simple rules of thumb that identify species at greatest risk, and highlight the potential of decision-tree analyses to inform conservation efforts.},
	language = {en},
	number = {26},
	urldate = {2017-12-26},
	journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
	author = {Davidson, Ana D. and Hamilton, Marcus J. and Boyer, Alison G. and Brown, James H. and Ceballos, Gerardo},
	month = jun,
	year = {2009},
	pmid = {19528635},
	keywords = {biodiversity, boundaries, collapse},
	pages = {10702--10705},
	file = {Davidson et al. - 2009 - Multiple ecological pathways to extinction in mamm.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\4V5DYRFX\\Davidson et al. - 2009 - Multiple ecological pathways to extinction in mamm.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{crosta_numerical_2009,
	title = {Numerical modeling of 2-{D} granular step collapse on erodible and nonerodible surface},
	volume = {114},
	issn = {2156-2202},
	url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com.eproxy1.lib.hku.hk/doi/10.1029/2008JF001186/abstract},
	doi = {10.1029/2008JF001186},
	abstract = {The study of the collapse of a granular step is of great interest for understanding transient dense granular flow conditions and for modeling geophysical flows in granular materials. We present the results of a series of finite elements simulations considering variable column aspect ratios and properties for an elastoplastic material with a Mohr-Coulomb yield rule and nonassociate flow rule. The adopted approach does not suffer limitations of typical shallow water equation methods, being able to consider strong vertical motion components. Transition from initial instability to complete flow development is simulated for columns with different aspect ratios (a ≤ 20). Simulation results are compared to original tests and available well-documented experimental data, in terms of flow development, duration, profile geometry, velocity distribution, erosion and deposition, and evolution of the interface between static and moving material. Tests involving a thick erodible layer have been performed and numerical simulation results are compared also with a real case study. Numerical results support both those of qualitative and theoretical models and the proposed general scaling laws and clarify the dependence on frictional properties. Power laws describe the normalized runout versus aspect ratio (a {\textgreater} 4) relationship with constants of proportionality dependent on internal friction angle and exponents ranging between 0.68 and 0.77, in good agreement with experimental results. Total duration and evolution in three successive phases agree with observations. Time for the flow front to cease motion with respect to aspect ratio is best represented by the 3.68a0.448 relationships for a 30° internal friction angle material.},
	language = {en},
	number = {F3},
	urldate = {2017-01-23TZ},
	journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface},
	author = {Crosta, G. B. and Imposimato, S. and Roddeman, D.},
	month = sep,
	year = {2009},
	keywords = {1810 Hydrology: Debris flow and landslides, 1826 Hydrology: Geomorphology: hillslope, 1847 Hydrology: Modeling, Granular material, collapse, modeling},
	pages = {F03020}
}

Website  abstract   bibtex   

@article{
 title = {A theoretical model and its experimental validation to predict the porosity as a function of shrinkage and collapse phenomena during drying},
 type = {article},
 year = {2009},
 identifiers = {[object Object]},
 keywords = {Collapse,Drying,Food,Mathematical simulation,Pores,Porosity,Shrinkage,Theoretical model},
 pages = {1122-1130},
 volume = {42},
 websites = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0963996909001690},
 month = {10},
 id = {457da6f2-1d2d-3c30-a152-aa5f0784f06c},
 created = {2016-04-04T08:04:56.000Z},
 accessed = {2016-04-04},
 file_attached = {false},
 profile_id = {9969bc68-8302-3563-8c57-5c40ce3d5acd},
 last_modified = {2016-04-16T08:41:54.000Z},
 read = {false},
 starred = {false},
 authored = {true},
 confirmed = {true},
 hidden = {false},
 abstract = {Several models have been reported to predict the porosity during drying. However, currently these models do not allow quantifying the possible evolution of the initial air volume existing at the beginning of the drying process. In this study, a theoretical model was built to predict the porosity of dried materials by taking into account the possible changes in the initial air volume. The model involved two physical mechanisms (collapse and shrinkage phenomena) and was solved in Matlab by formulating it as a constrained optimization problem. The model predictions were extensively validated with experimental data published by several independent groups and compared with other models. In all cases, the proposed model gave a remarkable agreement with the literature data regardless of the porosity curve behavior and/or the presence/absence of inversion points. Furthermore, the shrinkage and collapse functions were used to get additional insights into the mechanisms of pore formation during air-drying and freeze-drying. The present model could be used as a reliable tool to accurately predict the porosity and to analyze the dynamic mechanisms involved during drying processes.},
 bibtype = {article},
 author = {Khalloufi, Seddik and Almeida-Rivera, Cristhian and Bongers, Peter},
 journal = {Food Research International},
 number = {8}
}

@article{dunnSixthMassCoextinction2009,
  title = {The Sixth Mass Coextinction: Are Most Endangered Species Parasites and Mutualists?},
  author = {Dunn, Robert R. and Harris, Nyeema C. and Colwell, Robert K. and Koh, Lian P. and Sodhi, Navjot S.},
  year = {2009},
  month = sep,
  volume = {276},
  pages = {3037--3045},
  issn = {1471-2954},
  doi = {10.1098/rspb.2009.0413},
  abstract = {The effects of species declines and extinction on biotic interactions remain poorly understood. The loss of a species is expected to result in the loss of other species that depend on it (coextinction), leading to cascading effects across trophic levels. Such effects are likely to be most severe in mutualistic and parasitic interactions. Indeed, models suggest that coextinction may be the most common form of biodiversity loss. Paradoxically, few historical or contemporary coextinction events have actually been recorded. We review the current knowledge of coextinction by: (i) considering plausible explanations for the discrepancy between predicted and observed coextinction rates; (ii) exploring the potential consequences of coextinctions; (iii) discussing the interactions and synergies between coextinction and other drivers of species loss, particularly climate change; and (iv) suggesting the way forward for understanding the phenomenon of coextinction, which may well be the most insidious threat to global biodiversity.},
  journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-5282381,~to-add-doi-URL,coextinction,endangered-species,mass-extinction,parasite,resilience,species-association,species-extinction},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-5282381},
  number = {1670}
}

Paper  bibtex   

@article{vanloqueren_how_2009,
	title = {How agricultural research systems shape a technological regime that develops genetic engineering but locks out agroecological innovations},
	volume = {38},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733309000614},
	number = {6},
	urldate = {2014-11-29},
	journal = {Research policy},
	author = {Vanloqueren, Gaëtan and Baret, Philippe V.},
	year = {2009},
	note = {00162},
	keywords = {collapse, lock-in},
	pages = {971--983},
	file = {Vanloqueren and Baret - 2009 - How agricultural research systems shape a technolo.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\N74WDMKT\\Vanloqueren and Baret - 2009 - How agricultural research systems shape a technolo.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{may_complex_2008,
	title = {Complex systems: {Ecology} for bankers},
	volume = {451},
	copyright = {© 2008 Nature Publishing Group},
	issn = {0028-0836},
	shorttitle = {Complex systems},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v451/n7181/full/451893a.html},
	doi = {10.1038/451893a},
	abstract = {There is common ground in analysing financial systems and ecosystems, especially in the need to identify conditions that dispose a system to be knocked from seeming stability into another, less happy state.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7181},
	urldate = {2014-10-04},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {May, Robert M. and Levin, Simon A. and Sugihara, George},
	month = feb,
	year = {2008},
	keywords = {finance, collapse},
	pages = {893--895},
	file = {May et al. - 2008 - Complex systems Ecology for bankers.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\XHED2SXZ\\May et al. - 2008 - Complex systems Ecology for bankers.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{jones_global_2008,
	title = {Global trends in emerging infectious diseases},
	volume = {451},
	issn = {0028-0836, 1476-4687},
	url = {http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature06536},
	doi = {10.1038/nature06536},
	abstract = {Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health1, 2, 3. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID ‘events’ (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3\% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8\%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3\% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease ‘hotspots’). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.},
	number = {7181},
	urldate = {2017-02-08},
	journal = {Nature},
	author = {Jones, Kate E. and Patel, Nikkita G. and Levy, Marc A. and Storeygard, Adam and Balk, Deborah and Gittleman, John L. and Daszak, Peter},
	month = feb,
	year = {2008},
	note = {02669},
	keywords = {collapse, health-epidemics-pandemics},
	pages = {990--993},
	file = {Jones et al. - 2008 - Global trends in emerging infectious diseases.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\9TMKFMXG\\Jones et al. - 2008 - Global trends in emerging infectious diseases.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{fabry_impacts_2008,
	title = {Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and ecosystem processes},
	volume = {65},
	url = {http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/65/3/414.short},
	abstract = {Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) is altering the seawater chemistry of the world’s oceans with consequences for marine biota. Elevated partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is causing the calcium carbonate saturation horizon to shoal in many regions, particularly in high latitudes and regions that intersect with pronounced hypoxic zones. The ability of marine animals, most importantly pteropod molluscs, foraminifera, and some benthic invertebrates, to produce calcareous skeletal structures is directly affected by seawater CO2 chemistry. CO2 influences the physiology of marine organisms as well through acid-base imbalance and reduced oxygen transport capacity. The few studies at relevant pCO2 levels impede our ability to predict future impacts on foodweb dynamics and other ecosystem processes. Here we present new observations, review available data, and identify priorities for future research, based on regions, ecosystems, taxa, and physiological processes believed to be most vulnerable to ocean acidification. We conclude that ocean acidification and the synergistic impacts of other anthropogenic stressors provide great potential for widespread changes to marine ecosystems.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2016-12-01},
	journal = {ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil},
	author = {Fabry, Victoria J. and Seibel, Brad A. and Feely, Richard A. and Orr, James C.},
	year = {2008},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, acidification, oceans},
	pages = {414--432},
	file = {Fabry et al. - 2008 - Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\F22IZ2J4\\Fabry et al. - 2008 - Impacts of ocean acidification on marine fauna and.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{david_path_2007,
	title = {Path dependence: a foundational concept for historical social science},
	volume = {1},
	shorttitle = {Path dependence},
	url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11698-006-0005-x},
	abstract = {This introduction to the concept of path dependence, its pertinence for the development of historical social science, and its application in economic analysis and economic history, proceeds from intuitive general ideas about history and historicity in narratives. It provides precise definitions of what is meant by describing a dynamical process as being “historical.” Deterministic and stochastic formalizations of such dynamical systems are distinguished. The characterization of stochastic path dependent processes as “non-ergodic” is explained in non-mathematical language by reference to concepts in probability theory, and a variety of representations of such processes in formal models is surveyed (including the Polya urn-process, certain kinds of Markov chain models, branching processes, and reversible spin systems) to show that while all display path dependence, their properties in other respects are quite different. The diverse set of structural, micro-level conditions that can give rise to path dependence is examined, and a further distinction is drawn between the property of path dependence and the existence of so-called “QWERTY-effects”—characterized by decentralized competitive market failures and consequent “lock-in” to Pareto-inefficient equilibria. Concluding sections consider the implications of the existence of non-ergodic dynamics for the methods of economic policy analysis, and the nature of the guidance that can be obtained in regard to public policy affecting endogenous technological change and institutional evolution.},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2014-02-15},
	journal = {Cliometrica},
	author = {David, Paul A.},
	year = {2007},
	keywords = {collapse, lock-in},
	pages = {91--114},
	file = {David - 2007 - Path dependence a foundational concept for histor.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\H2JACR2V\\David - 2007 - Path dependence a foundational concept for histor.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{kefiSpatialVegetationPatterns2007,
  title = {Spatial Vegetation Patterns and Imminent Desertification in {{Mediterranean}} Arid Ecosystems},
  author = {K{\'e}fi, Sonia and Rietkerk, Max and Alados, Concepci{\'o}n L. and Pueyo, Yolanda and Papanastasis, Vasilios P. and ElAich, Ahmed and {de Ruiter}, Peter C.},
  year = {2007},
  month = sep,
  volume = {449},
  pages = {213--217},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature06111},
  abstract = {Humans and climate affect ecosystems and their services1, which may involve continuous and discontinuous transitions from one stable state to another2. Discontinuous transitions are abrupt, irreversible and among the most catastrophic changes of ecosystems identified1. For terrestrial ecosystems, it has been hypothesized that vegetation patchiness could be used as a signature of imminent transitions3, 4. Here, we analyse how vegetation patchiness changes in arid ecosystems with different grazing pressures, using both field data and a modelling approach. In the modelling approach, we extrapolated our analysis to even higher grazing pressures to investigate the vegetation patchiness when desertification is imminent. In three arid Mediterranean ecosystems in Spain, Greece and Morocco, we found that the patch-size distribution of the vegetation follows a power law. Using a stochastic cellular automaton model, we show that local positive interactions among plants can explain such power-law distributions. Furthermore, with increasing grazing pressure, the field data revealed consistent deviations from power laws. Increased grazing pressure leads to similar deviations in the model. When grazing was further increased in the model, we found that these deviations always and only occurred close to transition to desert, independent of the type of transition, and regardless of the vegetation cover. Therefore, we propose that patch-size distributions may be a warning signal for the onset of desertification.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-1656424,~to-add-doi-URL,arid-region,cellular-automata,desertification,disturbances,ecosystem,environmental-modelling,forest-resources,fragmentation,grazing,mediterranean-region,power-law,system-catastrophe,tipping-point,vegetation},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-1656424},
  number = {7159}
}

Paper  bibtex   

@article{weitzman_review_2007,
	title = {A review of the {Stern} {Review} on the economics of climate change},
	volume = {45},
	url = {http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/aea/jel/2007/00000045/00000003/art00004},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2017-03-04},
	journal = {Journal of economic literature},
	author = {Weitzman, Martin L.},
	year = {2007},
	note = {01134},
	keywords = {economics, collapse, climate},
	pages = {703--724},
	file = {Weitzman - 2007 - A review of the Stern Review on the economics of c.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\C7VCA2PF\\Weitzman - 2007 - A review of the Stern Review on the economics of c.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{costanza_sustainability_2007,
	title = {Sustainability or collapse: what can we learn from integrating the history of humans and the rest of nature?},
	volume = {36},
	issn = {0044-7447},
	shorttitle = {Sustainability or collapse},
	abstract = {Understanding the history of how humans have interacted with the rest of nature can help clarify the options for managing our increasingly interconnected global system. Simple, deterministic relationships between environmental stress and social change are inadequate. Extreme drought, for instance, triggered both social collapse and ingenious management of water through irrigation. Human responses to change, in turn, feed into climate and ecological systems, producing a complex web of multidirectional connections in time and space. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleoenvironmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future.},
	language = {eng},
	number = {7},
	journal = {Ambio},
	author = {Costanza, Robert and Graumlich, Lisa and Steffen, Will and Crumley, Carole and Dearing, John and Hibbard, Kathy and Leemans, Rik and Redman, Charles and Schimel, David},
	month = nov,
	year = {2007},
	pmid = {18074887},
	keywords = {collapse, archaeology-history, limits-to-growth},
	pages = {522--527},
	file = {Costanza et al. - 2007 - Sustainability or collapse What can we learn from.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\3CB8TSFR\\Costanza et al. - 2007 - Sustainability or collapse What can we learn from.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{lenton_millennial_2006,
	title = {Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient {Earth} system model},
	volume = {26},
	issn = {0930-7575},
	url = {https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/26700/},
	doi = {Lenton, T.M., Williamson, M.S., Edwards, N.R., Marsh, R., Price, A.R., Ridgwell, A.J., Shepherd, J.G. and Cox, S.J.    (2006)   Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate change in an efficient Earth system model  Climate Dynamics, 26, (7-8), pp. 687-711.  (doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0109-9 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-006-0109-9>).},
	abstract = {A new Earth system model, GENIE-1, is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean, phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry, dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice, land surface physics and carbon cycling, and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8–3.3°C and predict atmospheric CO2 close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO2 emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1,100–15,000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO2 approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420–5,660 ppmv, giving 1.5–12.5°C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year?1. Under ‘business as usual’, the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year?1. Soil carbon is lost globally, boreal vegetation generally increases, whilst under extreme forcing, dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6°C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1,100 GtC, whilst 15,000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000, contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise, including thermal expansion, is 0.4–10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions, but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources.},
	language = {en},
	number = {7-8},
	urldate = {2017-04-06},
	journal = {Climate Dynamics},
	author = {Lenton, T. M. and Williamson, M. S. and Edwards, N. R. and Marsh, R. and Price, A. R. and Ridgwell, A. J. and Shepherd, J. G. and Cox, S. J.},
	year = {2006},
	note = {00081},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate, models},
	pages = {687--711},
	file = {Lenton et al. - 2006 - Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate chan.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\3P54X9QV\\Lenton et al. - 2006 - Millennial timescale carbon cycle and climate chan.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{zachos_rapid_2005,
	title = {Rapid acidification of the ocean during the {Paleocene}-{Eocene} thermal maximum},
	volume = {308},
	url = {http://science.sciencemag.org/content/308/5728/1611.short},
	abstract = {The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) has been attributed to the rapid release of ∼2000 × 109 metric tons of carbon in the form of methane. In theory, oxidation and ocean absorption of this carbon should have lowered deep-sea pH, thereby triggering a rapid ({\textless}10,000-year) shoaling of the calcite compensation depth (CCD), followed by gradual recovery. Here we present geochemical data from five new South Atlantic deep-sea sections that constrain the timing and extent of massive sea-floor carbonate dissolution coincident with the PETM. The sections, from between 2.7 and 4.8 kilometers water depth, are marked by a prominent clay layer, the character of which indicates that the CCD shoaled rapidly ({\textless}10,000 years) by more than 2 kilometers and recovered gradually ({\textgreater}100,000 years). These findings indicate that a large mass of carbon (»2000 × 109 metric tons of carbon) dissolved in the ocean at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary and that permanent sequestration of this carbon occurred through silicate weathering feedback.},
	number = {5728},
	urldate = {2016-12-01},
	journal = {Science},
	author = {Zachos, James C. and Röhl, Ursula and Schellenberg, Stephen A. and Sluijs, Appy and Hodell, David A. and Kelly, Daniel C. and Thomas, Ellen and Nicolo, Micah and Raffi, Isabella and Lourens, Lucas J.},
	year = {2005},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, acidification, oceans},
	pages = {1611--1615},
	file = {Zachos et al. - 2005 - Rapid acidification of the ocean during the Paleoc.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\GMB57AS2\\Zachos et al. - 2005 - Rapid acidification of the ocean during the Paleoc.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{foleyGlobalConsequencesLand2005,
  title = {Global Consequences of Land Use},
  author = {Foley, Jonathan A. and DeFries, Ruth and Asner, Gregory P. and Barford, Carol and Bonan, Gordon B. and Carpenter, Stephen R. and Chapin, F. Stuart and Coe, Michael T. and Daily, Gretchen C. and Gibbs, Holly K. and Helkowski, Joseph H. and Holloway, Tracey and Howard, Erica A. and Kucharik, Christopher J. and Monfreda, Chad and Patz, Jonathan A. and Prentice, I. Colin and Ramankutty, Navin and Snyder, Peter K.},
  year = {2005},
  month = jul,
  volume = {309},
  pages = {570--574},
  issn = {1095-9203},
  doi = {10.1126/science.1111772},
  abstract = {Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable losses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and services in the long term.},
  journal = {Science},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-764927,assessment,global-scale,land-use,multiauthor},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-764927},
  number = {5734}
}

@article{thomasExtinctionRiskClimate2004,
  title = {Extinction Risk from Climate Change},
  author = {Thomas, Chris D. and Cameron, Alison and Green, Rhys E. and Bakkenes, Michel and Beaumont, Linda J. and Collingham, Yvonne C. and Erasmus, Barend F. N. and {de Siqueira}, Marinez F. and Grainger, Alan and Hannah, Lee and Hughes, Lesley and Huntley, Brian and {van Jaarsveld}, Albert S. and Midgley, Guy F. and Miles, Lera and {Ortega-Huerta}, Miguel A. and Townsend Peterson, A. and Phillips, Oliver L. and Williams, Stephen E.},
  year = {2004},
  month = jan,
  volume = {427},
  pages = {145--148},
  issn = {0028-0836},
  doi = {10.1038/nature02121},
  abstract = {Climate change over the past 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20\,\% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37\,\% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (18\%) than mid-range (24\%) and maximum-change (35\%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.},
  journal = {Nature},
  keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-165308,climate-change,climate-projections,communicating-uncertainty,fragmentation,invasive-species,irreversibility,species-distribution,species-extinction},
  lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-165308},
  number = {6970}
}

@article{collins_modeling_2004,
	title = {Modeling damage and deformation in impact simulations},
	volume = {39},
	doi = {10.1111/j.1945-5100.2004.tb00337.x},
	abstract = {Numerical modeling is a powerful tool for investigating the formation of large impact craters but is one that must be validated with observational evidence. Quantitative analysis of damage and deformation in the target surrounding an impact event provides a promising means of validation for numerical models of terrestrial impact craters, particularly in cases where the final pristine crater morphology is ambiguous or unknown. In this paper, we discuss the aspects of the behavior of brittle materials important for the accurate simulation of damage and deformation surrounding an impact event and the care required to interpret the results. We demonstrate this with an example simulation of an impact into a terrestrial, granite target that produces a 10 km-diameter transient crater. The results of the simulation are shown in terms of damage (a scalar quantity that reflects the totality of fragmentation) and plastic strain, both total plastic strain (the accumulated amount of permanent shear deformation, regardless of the sense of shear) and net plastic strain (the amount of permanent shear deformation where the sense of shear is accounted for). Damage and plastic strain are both greatest close to the impact site and decline with radial distance. However, the reversal in flow patterns from the downward and outward excavation flow to the inward and upward collapse flow implies that net plastic strains may be significantly lower than total plastic strains. Plastic strain in brittle rocks is very heterogeneous; however, continuum modeling requires that the deformation of the target during an impact event be described in terms of an average strain that applies over a large volume of rock (large compared to the spacing between individual zones of sliding). This paper demonstrates that model predictions of smooth average strain are entirely consistent with an actual strain concentrated along very narrow zones. Furthermore, we suggest that model predictions of total accumulated strain should correlate with observable variations in bulk density and seismic velocity.},
	number = {2},
	journal = {Meteoritics \& Planetary Science},
	author = {Collins, G. S and Melosh, H. J and Ivanov, B. A},
	year = {2004},
	keywords = {chicxulub crater, collapse, compression, failure, friction, mechanics, peak-ring formation, rock, shear, strength},
	pages = {217--231},
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{tainter_resource_2003,
	title = {Resource transitions and energy gain: contexts of organization.},
	volume = {7},
	shorttitle = {Resource transitions and energy gain},
	url = {http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=11955449&AN=15069538&h=L9sCcCCcdHnxXl0LRfQ7VZtmVIcDGWL9%2FmVm%2B2UepNZR1pahBMz7Fui3ZaV0f%2Fr38oWL0qmNBE91hva0ide%2Byg%3D%3D&crl=c},
	abstract = {Energy gain constrains resource use, social organization, and landscape organization in human and other living systems. Changes in energy gain have common characteristics across living systems. We describe these commonalities in selected case studies involving imperial taxation, fungus-farming ants, and North American beaver, and propose a suite of hypotheses for the organization of systems that subsist on different levels of energy gain. Organizational constraints arising from energy gain predict changes to settlement and organization in postcarbon societies.},
	number = {3},
	urldate = {2014-02-14},
	journal = {Conservation Ecology (11955449)},
	author = {Tainter, Joseph A. and Allen, T. F. H. and Little, Amanda and Hoekstra, Thomas W.},
	year = {2003},
	keywords = {energy, collapse},
	file = {Tainter et al. - 2003 - Resource transitions and energy gain contexts of .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\47HKM944\\Tainter et al. - 2003 - Resource transitions and energy gain contexts of .pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  abstract   bibtex   

@article{pezzey_effect_2003,
	title = {The effect of subsistence on collapse and institutional adaptation in population–resource societies},
	volume = {72},
	issn = {03043878},
	url = {http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304387803000786},
	doi = {10.1016/S0304-3878(03)00078-6},
	abstract = {We extend the Brander–Taylor model of population and resource development in an isolated society by adding a resource subsistence requirement to people's preferences. This improves plausibility; amplifies population overshoot and collapse, and can destabilize the steady state; and allows for complete cessation of non-harvesting activities, in line with archaeological evidence for many societies. We then use bifurcation techniques to give a global analysis of four types of institutional adaptation: an ad valorem resource tax, and quotas on total resource harvest, total harvest effort and per capita effort. In all cases, we find that a higher subsistence requirement makes it harder, or often impossible, for adaptation to avoid overshoot and collapse.},
	language = {en},
	number = {1},
	urldate = {2016-02-23},
	journal = {Journal of Development Economics},
	author = {Pezzey, John C.V. and Anderies, John M.},
	month = oct,
	year = {2003},
	note = {00038},
	keywords = {collapse, models},
	pages = {299--320},
	file = {Pezzey and Anderies - 2003 - The effect of subsistence on collapse and institut.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\A3MAQJWX\\Pezzey and Anderies - 2003 - The effect of subsistence on collapse and institut.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  doi  bibtex   

@article{berkhout_technological_2002,
	title = {Technological regimes, path dependency and the environment},
	volume = {12},
	issn = {0959-3780},
	url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFV-44N3WRH-1/2/3a8e631346ca8ca0c5a05d63349899d2},
	doi = {doi: DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00025-5},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Global Environmental Change},
	author = {Berkhout, Frans},
	month = apr,
	year = {2002},
	keywords = {collapse, lock-in},
	pages = {1--4},
	file = {Berkhout - 2002 - Technological regimes, path dependency and the env.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\K27779ZZ\\Berkhout - 2002 - Technological regimes, path dependency and the env.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  abstract   bibtex   

@article{liebowitz_path_1995,
	title = {Path {Dependence}, {Lock}-{In}, and {History}},
	volume = {11},
	url = {http://jleo.oxfordjournals.org/content/11/1/205.short},
	abstract = {Do economies and markets make remediable errors in the choice of products? Does the economy "lock-in" to these incorrect choices even when the knowledge that these choices are incorrect is readily available? The literature of path dependence may be understood to argue that these lock-ins and errors occur, even in a world characterized by voluntary decisions and individually maximizing behavior. In this paper we examine path dependence and illustrate three different forms of the term, each having a different implication regarding market errors and lock-in. Two of these meanings are common in the economy but provide no support for the claims that remediable errors occur. The third meaning, which does imply irremediable error, we show to be based on restrictive assumptions that are likely to be overcome in the real world. The analysis is illustrated by examining the market's choice of videorecorder formats.},
	number = {1},
	journal = {Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization},
	author = {Liebowitz, S. J. and Margolis, Stephen E.},
	month = apr,
	year = {1995},
	keywords = {collapse, lock-in},
	pages = {205 --226},
	file = {Liebowitz and Margolis - 1995 - Path Dependence, Lock-In, and History.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\N3PZWTT4\\Liebowitz and Margolis - 1995 - Path Dependence, Lock-In, and History.pdf:application/pdf}
}

@article{falkenmark_massive_1989,
	title = {The massive water scarcity now threatening {Africa}: why isn't it being addressed?},
	shorttitle = {The massive water scarcity now threatening {Africa}},
	journal = {Ambio},
	author = {Falkenmark, Malin},
	year = {1989},
	keywords = {boundaries, collapse, water},
	pages = {112--118}
}

Paper  bibtex   

@article{david_clio_1985,
	title = {Clio and the {Economics} of {QWERTY}},
	volume = {75},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/1805621},
	number = {2},
	urldate = {2015-01-05},
	journal = {The American economic review},
	author = {David, Paul A.},
	year = {1985},
	keywords = {collapse, lock-in},
	pages = {332--337},
	file = {David - 1985 - Clio and the Economics of QWERTY.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\JRN87RBK\\David - 1985 - Clio and the Economics of QWERTY.pdf:application/pdf}
}

Paper  bibtex   

@article{merton_self-fulfilling_1948,
	title = {The self-fulfilling prophecy},
	url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/4609267},
	urldate = {2014-06-26},
	journal = {The Antioch Review},
	author = {Merton, Robert K.},
	year = {1948},
	keywords = {collapse, philosophy},
	pages = {193--210},
	file = {Merton - 1948 - The self-fulfilling prophecy.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\XDEM2WPG\\Merton - 1948 - The self-fulfilling prophecy.pdf:application/pdf}
}