Climate Change in the Fertile Crescent and Implications of the Recent Syrian Drought. Kelley, C. P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R., & Kushnir, Y. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(11):3241–3246, March, 2015. doi abstract bibtex [Significance] There is evidence that the 2007-2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007-2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict. [Abstract] Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.
@article{kelleyClimateChangeFertile2015,
title = {Climate Change in the {{Fertile Crescent}} and Implications of the Recent {{Syrian}} Drought},
author = {Kelley, Colin P. and Mohtadi, Shahrzad and Cane, Mark A. and Seager, Richard and Kushnir, Yochanan},
year = {2015},
month = mar,
volume = {112},
pages = {3241--3246},
issn = {1091-6490},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1421533112},
abstract = {[Significance]
There is evidence that the 2007-2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007-2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict.
[Abstract]
Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13533740,climate-change,conflicts,droughts,geopolitics},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13533740},
number = {11}
}
Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Water Scarcity—Physical Limits, Sectoral Constraints, and Policy Imperatives. Scott, C. & Sugg, Z. Energies, 8(8):8211–8225, August, 2015. 00004
Paper doi abstract bibtex The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others), while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a) technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b) resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c) institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.
@article{scott_global_2015,
title = {Global {Energy} {Development} and {Climate}-{Induced} {Water} {Scarcity}—{Physical} {Limits}, {Sectoral} {Constraints}, and {Policy} {Imperatives}},
volume = {8},
issn = {1996-1073},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/8/8/8211/},
doi = {10.3390/en8088211},
abstract = {The current accelerated growth in demand for energy globally is confronted by water-resource limitations and hydrologic variability linked to climate change. The global spatial and temporal trends in water requirements for energy development and policy alternatives to address these constraints are poorly understood. This article analyzes national-level energy demand trends from U.S. Energy Information Administration data in relation to newly available assessments of water consumption and life-cycle impacts of thermoelectric generation and biofuel production, and freshwater availability and sectoral allocations from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Bank. Emerging, energy-related water scarcity flashpoints include the world’s largest, most diversified economies (Brazil, India, China, and USA among others), while physical water scarcity continues to pose limits to energy development in the Middle East and small-island states. Findings include the following: (a) technological obstacles to alleviate water scarcity driven by energy demand are surmountable; (b) resource conservation is inevitable, driven by financial limitations and efficiency gains; and (c) institutional arrangements play a pivotal role in the virtuous water-energy-climate cycle. We conclude by making reference to coupled energy-water policy alternatives including water-conserving energy portfolios, intersectoral water transfers, virtual water for energy, hydropower tradeoffs, and use of impaired waters for energy development.},
language = {en},
number = {8},
urldate = {2016-12-13},
journal = {Energies},
author = {Scott, Christopher and Sugg, Zachary},
month = aug,
year = {2015},
note = {00004},
keywords = {energy, boundaries, collapse, water, climate},
pages = {8211--8225},
file = {Scott and Sugg - 2015 - Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Wate.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\7FGK5CWC\\Scott and Sugg - 2015 - Global Energy Development and Climate-Induced Wate.pdf:application/pdf}
}
Messaging climate change uncertainty. Cooke, R. M. Nature Climate Change, 5(1):8–10, January, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex Climate change is full of uncertainty and the messengers of climate science are not getting the uncertainty narrative right. To communicate uncertainty one must first understand it, and then avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.
@article{cooke_messaging_2015,
title = {Messaging climate change uncertainty},
volume = {5},
copyright = {© 2015 Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.},
issn = {1758-678X},
url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n1/full/nclimate2466.html},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2466},
abstract = {Climate change is full of uncertainty and the messengers of climate science are not getting the uncertainty narrative right. To communicate uncertainty one must first understand it, and then avoid repeating the mistakes of the past.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2015-02-24},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
author = {Cooke, Roger M.},
month = jan,
year = {2015},
keywords = {collapse, sociology, storytelling, media},
pages = {8--10},
file = {Cooke - 2015 - Messaging climate change uncertainty.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\VAS5J8E6\\Cooke - 2015 - Messaging climate change uncertainty.pdf:application/pdf}
}
When Did the Anthropocene Begin? A Mid-Twentieth Century Boundary Level Is Stratigraphically Optimal. Zalasiewicz, J., Waters, C. N., Williams, M., Barnosky, A. D., Cearreta, A., Crutzen, P., Ellis, E., Ellis, M. A., Fairchild, I. J., Grinevald, J., Haff, P. K., Hajdas, I., Leinfelder, R., McNeill, J., Odada, E. O., Poirier, C., Richter, D., Steffen, W., Summerhayes, C., Syvitski, J. P. M., Vidas, D., Wagreich, M., Wing, S. L., Wolfe, A. P., An, Z., & Oreskes, N. Quaternary International, January, 2015. doi abstract bibtex We evaluate the boundary of the Anthropocene geological time interval as an epoch, since it is useful to have a consistent temporal definition for this increasingly used unit, whether the presently informal term is eventually formalized or not. Of the three main levels suggested - an 'early Anthropocene' level some thousands of years ago; the beginning of the Industrial Revolution at $\sim$1800 CE (Common Era); and the 'Great Acceleration' of the mid-twentieth century - current evidence suggests that the last of these has the most pronounced and globally synchronous signal. A boundary at this time need not have a Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP or 'golden spike') but can be defined by a Global Standard Stratigraphic Age (GSSA), i.e. a point in time of the human calendar. We propose an appropriate boundary level here to be the time of the world's first nuclear bomb explosion, on July 16th 1945 at Alamogordo, New Mexico; additional bombs were detonated at the average rate of one every 9.6 days until 1988 with attendant worldwide fallout easily identifiable in the chemostratigraphic record. Hence, Anthropocene deposits would be those that may include the globally distributed primary artificial radionuclide signal, while also being recognized using a wide range of other stratigraphic criteria. This suggestion for the Holocene-Anthropocene boundary may ultimately be superseded, as the Anthropocene is only in its early phases, but it should remain practical and effective for use by at least the current generation of scientists.
@article{zalasiewiczWhenDidAnthropocene2015,
title = {When Did the {{Anthropocene}} Begin? {{A}} Mid-Twentieth Century Boundary Level Is Stratigraphically Optimal},
author = {Zalasiewicz, Jan and Waters, Colin N. and Williams, Mark and Barnosky, Anthony D. and Cearreta, Alejandro and Crutzen, Paul and Ellis, Erle and Ellis, Michael A. and Fairchild, Ian J. and Grinevald, Jacques and Haff, Peter K. and Hajdas, Irka and Leinfelder, Reinhold and McNeill, John and Odada, Eric O. and Poirier, Cl{\'e}ment and Richter, Daniel and Steffen, Will and Summerhayes, Colin and Syvitski, James P. M. and Vidas, Davor and Wagreich, Michael and Wing, Scott L. and Wolfe, Alexander P. and An, Zhisheng and Oreskes, Naomi},
year = {2015},
month = jan,
issn = {1040-6182},
doi = {10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.045},
abstract = {We evaluate the boundary of the Anthropocene geological time interval as an epoch, since it is useful to have a consistent temporal definition for this increasingly used unit, whether the presently informal term is eventually formalized or not. Of the three main levels suggested - an 'early Anthropocene' level some thousands of years ago; the beginning of the Industrial Revolution at {$\sim$}1800 CE (Common Era); and the 'Great Acceleration' of the mid-twentieth century - current evidence suggests that the last of these has the most pronounced and globally synchronous signal. A boundary at this time need not have a Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP or 'golden spike') but can be defined by a Global Standard Stratigraphic Age (GSSA), i.e. a point in time of the human calendar. We propose an appropriate boundary level here to be the time of the world's first nuclear bomb explosion, on July 16th 1945 at Alamogordo, New Mexico; additional bombs were detonated at the average rate of one every 9.6 days until 1988 with attendant worldwide fallout easily identifiable in the chemostratigraphic record. Hence, Anthropocene deposits would be those that may include the globally distributed primary artificial radionuclide signal, while also being recognized using a wide range of other stratigraphic criteria. This suggestion for the Holocene-Anthropocene boundary may ultimately be superseded, as the Anthropocene is only in its early phases, but it should remain practical and effective for use by at least the current generation of scientists.},
journal = {Quaternary International},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13558672,anthropocene,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,multiauthor},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13558672}
}
Collapse of the World's Largest Herbivores. Ripple, W. J., Newsome, T. M., Wolf, C., Dirzo, R., Everatt, K. T., Galetti, M., Hayward, M. W., Kerley, G. I. H., Levi, T., Lindsey, P. A., Macdonald, D. W., Malhi, Y., Painter, L. E., Sandom, C. J., Terborgh, J., & Van Valkenburgh, B. Science Advances, 1(4):e1400103, May, 2015. doi abstract bibtex Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass $\geq$100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that ̃60\,% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs.
@article{rippleCollapseWorldLargest2015,
title = {Collapse of the World's Largest Herbivores},
author = {Ripple, W. J. and Newsome, T. M. and Wolf, C. and Dirzo, R. and Everatt, K. T. and Galetti, M. and Hayward, M. W. and Kerley, G. I. H. and Levi, T. and Lindsey, P. A. and Macdonald, D. W. and Malhi, Y. and Painter, L. E. and Sandom, C. J. and Terborgh, J. and Van Valkenburgh, B.},
year = {2015},
month = may,
volume = {1},
pages = {e1400103},
issn = {2375-2548},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1400103},
abstract = {Large wild herbivores are crucial to ecosystems and human societies. We highlight the 74 largest terrestrial herbivore species on Earth (body mass {$\geq$}100 kg), the threats they face, their important and often overlooked ecosystem effects, and the conservation efforts needed to save them and their predators from extinction. Large herbivores are generally facing dramatic population declines and range contractions, such that{\~ }60\,\% are threatened with extinction. Nearly all threatened species are in developing countries, where major threats include hunting, land-use change, and resource depression by livestock. Loss of large herbivores can have cascading effects on other species including large carnivores, scavengers, mesoherbivores, small mammals, and ecological processes involving vegetation, hydrology, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. The rate of large herbivore decline suggests that ever-larger swaths of the world will soon lack many of the vital ecological services these animals provide, resulting in enormous ecological and social costs.},
journal = {Science Advances},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14037837,~to-add-doi-URL,conservation,ecology,ecosystem-services,global-scale,herbivory,hydrology,nutrients,vegetation,wildfires},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14037837},
number = {4}
}
Planetary Boundaries: Guiding Human Development on a Changing Planet. Steffen, W., Richardson, K., Rockström, J., Cornell, S. E., Fetzer, I., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Carpenter, S. R., de Vries , W., de Wit , C. A., Folke, C., Gerten, D., Heinke, J., Mace, G. M., Persson, L. M., Ramanathan, V., Reyers, B., & Sörlin, S. Science, 347(6223):736+, 2015. doi abstract bibtex [Editor summary: Crossing the boundaries in global sustainability] The planetary boundary (PB) concept, introduced in 2009, aimed to define the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. This approach has proved influential in global sustainability policy development. Steffen et al. provide an updated and extended analysis of the PB framework. Of the original nine proposed boundaries, they identify three (including climate change) that might push the Earth system into a new state if crossed and that also have a pervasive influence on the remaining boundaries. They also develop the PB framework so that it can be applied usefully in a regional context. [Structured abstract] [::Introduction] There is an urgent need for a new paradigm that integrates the continued development of human societies and the maintenance of the Earth system (ES) in a resilient and accommodating state. The planetary boundary (PB) framework contributes to such a paradigm by providing a science-based analysis of the risk that human perturbations will destabilize the ES at the planetary scale. Here, the scientific underpinnings of the PB framework are updated and strengthened. [::Rationale] The relatively stable, 11,700-year-long Holocene epoch is the only state of the ES that we know for certain can support contemporary human societies. There is increasing evidence that human activities are affecting ES functioning to a degree that threatens the resilience of the ES – its ability to persist in a Holocene-like state in the face of increasing human pressures and shocks. The PB framework is based on critical processes that regulate ES functioning. By combining improved scientific understanding of ES functioning with the precautionary principle, the PB framework identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the ES is likely to remain low – a '' safe operating space'' for global societal development. A zone of uncertainty for each PB highlights the area of increasing risk. The current level of anthropogenic impact on the ES, and thus the risk to the stability of the ES, is assessed by comparison with the proposed PB (see the figure). [::Results] Three of the PBs (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and ocean acidification) remain essentially unchanged from the earlier analysis. Regional-level boundaries as well as globally aggregated PBs have now been developed for biosphere integrity (earlier '' biodiversity loss''), biogeochemical flows, land-system change, and freshwater use. At present, only one regional boundary (south Asian monsoon) can be established for atmospheric aerosol loading. Although we cannot identify a single PB for novel entities (here defined as new substances, new forms of existing substances, and modified life forms that have the potential for unwanted geophysical and/or biological effects), they are included in the PB framework, given their potential to change the state of the ES. Two of the PBs – climate change and biosphere integrity – are recognized as '' core'' PBs based on their fundamental importance for the ES. The climate system is a manifestation of the amount, distribution, and net balance of energy at Earth's surface; the biosphere regulates material and energy flows in the ES and increases its resilience to abrupt and gradual change. Anthropogenic perturbation levels of four of the ES processes/features (climate change, biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, and land-system change) exceed the proposed PB (see the figure). [::Conclusions] PBs are scientifically based levels of human perturbation of the ES beyond which ES functioning may be substantially altered. Transgression of the PBs thus creates substantial risk of destabilizing the Holocene state of the ES in which modern societies have evolved. The PB framework does not dictate how societies should develop. These are political decisions that must include consideration of the human dimensions, including equity, not incorporated in the PB framework. Nevertheless, by identifying a safe operating space for humanity on Earth, the PB framework can make a valuable contribution to decision-makers in charting desirable courses for societal development.
@article{steffenPlanetaryBoundariesGuiding2015,
title = {Planetary Boundaries: Guiding Human Development on a Changing Planet},
author = {Steffen, Will and Richardson, Katherine and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan and Cornell, Sarah E. and Fetzer, Ingo and Bennett, Elena M. and Biggs, Reinette and Carpenter, Stephen R. and {de Vries}, Wim and {de Wit}, Cynthia A. and Folke, Carl and Gerten, Dieter and Heinke, Jens and Mace, Georgina M. and Persson, Linn M. and Ramanathan, Veerabhadran and Reyers, Belinda and S{\"o}rlin, Sverker},
year = {2015},
volume = {347},
pages = {736+},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.1259855},
abstract = {[Editor summary: Crossing the boundaries in global sustainability]
The planetary boundary (PB) concept, introduced in 2009, aimed to define the environmental limits within which humanity can safely operate. This approach has proved influential in global sustainability policy development. Steffen et al. provide an updated and extended analysis of the PB framework. Of the original nine proposed boundaries, they identify three (including climate change) that might push the Earth system into a new state if crossed and that also have a pervasive influence on the remaining boundaries. They also develop the PB framework so that it can be applied usefully in a regional context.
[Structured abstract]
[::Introduction]
There is an urgent need for a new paradigm that integrates the continued development of human societies and the maintenance of the Earth system (ES) in a resilient and accommodating state. The planetary boundary (PB) framework contributes to such a paradigm by providing a science-based analysis of the risk that human perturbations will destabilize the ES at the planetary scale. Here, the scientific underpinnings of the PB framework are updated and strengthened.
[::Rationale]
The relatively stable, 11,700-year-long Holocene epoch is the only state of the ES that we know for certain can support contemporary human societies. There is increasing evidence that human activities are affecting ES functioning to a degree that threatens the resilience of the ES -- its ability to persist in a Holocene-like state in the face of increasing human pressures and shocks. The PB framework is based on critical processes that regulate ES functioning. By combining improved scientific understanding of ES functioning with the precautionary principle, the PB framework identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the ES is likely to remain low -- a '' safe operating space'' for global societal development. A zone of uncertainty for each PB highlights the area of increasing risk. The current level of anthropogenic impact on the ES, and thus the risk to the stability of the ES, is assessed by comparison with the proposed PB (see the figure).
[::Results]
Three of the PBs (climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, and ocean acidification) remain essentially unchanged from the earlier analysis. Regional-level boundaries as well as globally aggregated PBs have now been developed for biosphere integrity (earlier '' biodiversity loss''), biogeochemical flows, land-system change, and freshwater use. At present, only one regional boundary (south Asian monsoon) can be established for atmospheric aerosol loading. Although we cannot identify a single PB for novel entities (here defined as new substances, new forms of existing substances, and modified life forms that have the potential for unwanted geophysical and/or biological effects), they are included in the PB framework, given their potential to change the state of the ES. Two of the PBs -- climate change and biosphere integrity -- are recognized as '' core'' PBs based on their fundamental importance for the ES. The climate system is a manifestation of the amount, distribution, and net balance of energy at Earth's surface; the biosphere regulates material and energy flows in the ES and increases its resilience to abrupt and gradual change. Anthropogenic perturbation levels of four of the ES processes/features (climate change, biosphere integrity, biogeochemical flows, and land-system change) exceed the proposed PB (see the figure).
[::Conclusions]
PBs are scientifically based levels of human perturbation of the ES beyond which ES functioning may be substantially altered. Transgression of the PBs thus creates substantial risk of destabilizing the Holocene state of the ES in which modern societies have evolved. The PB framework does not dictate how societies should develop. These are political decisions that must include consideration of the human dimensions, including equity, not incorporated in the PB framework. Nevertheless, by identifying a safe operating space for humanity on Earth, the PB framework can make a valuable contribution to decision-makers in charting desirable courses for societal development.},
journal = {Science},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-14007223,~to-add-doi-URL,anthropogenic-impacts,climate-change,global-scale,ocean-acidification,ozone,regional-scale,sustainability},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-14007223},
number = {6223}
}
Creating a Safe Operating Space for Iconic Ecosystems. Scheffer, M., Barrett, S., Carpenter, S. R., Folke, C., Green, A. J., Holmgren, M., Hughes, T. P., Kosten, S., van de Leemput , I. A., Nepstad, D. C., van Nes , E. H., Peeters, E. T. H. M., & Walker, B. Science, 347(6228):1317–1319, March, 2015. doi abstract bibtex Although some ecosystem responses to climate change are gradual, many ecosystems react in highly nonlinear ways. They show little response until a threshold or tipping point is reached where even a small perturbation may trigger collapse into a state from which recovery is difficult (1). Increasing evidence shows that the critical climate level for such collapse may be altered by conditions that can be managed locally. These synergies between local stressors and climate change provide potential opportunities for proactive management. Although their clarity and scale make such local approaches more conducive to action than global greenhouse gas management, crises in iconic UNESCO World Heritage sites illustrate that such stewardship is at risk of failing.
@article{schefferCreatingSafeOperating2015,
title = {Creating a Safe Operating Space for Iconic Ecosystems},
author = {Scheffer, M. and Barrett, S. and Carpenter, S. R. and Folke, C. and Green, A. J. and Holmgren, M. and Hughes, T. P. and Kosten, S. and {van de Leemput}, I. A. and Nepstad, D. C. and {van Nes}, E. H. and Peeters, E. T. H. M. and Walker, B.},
year = {2015},
month = mar,
volume = {347},
pages = {1317--1319},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaa3769},
abstract = {Although some ecosystem responses to climate change are gradual, many ecosystems react in highly nonlinear ways. They show little response until a threshold or tipping point is reached where even a small perturbation may trigger collapse into a state from which recovery is difficult (1). Increasing evidence shows that the critical climate level for such collapse may be altered by conditions that can be managed locally. These synergies between local stressors and climate change provide potential opportunities for proactive management. Although their clarity and scale make such local approaches more conducive to action than global greenhouse gas management, crises in iconic UNESCO World Heritage sites illustrate that such stewardship is at risk of failing.},
journal = {Science},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13555881,~to-add-doi-URL,ecology,ecosystem,global-scale,tipping-point},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13555881},
number = {6228}
}
Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change. Smith, S. J., Edmonds, J., Hartin, C. A., Mundra, A., & Calvin, K. Nature Climate Change, 5(4):333–336, April, 2015. 00032
Paper doi abstract bibtex Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature1. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt2. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. 3) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 ± 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.
@article{smith_near-term_2015,
title = {Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change},
volume = {5},
copyright = {© 2014 Nature Publishing Group},
issn = {1758-678X},
url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2552.html},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2552},
abstract = {Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature1. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt2. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. 3) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 ± 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.},
language = {en},
number = {4},
urldate = {2016-12-07},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
author = {Smith, Steven J. and Edmonds, James and Hartin, Corinne A. and Mundra, Anupriya and Calvin, Katherine},
month = apr,
year = {2015},
note = {00032},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, climate},
pages = {333--336},
file = {Smith et al. - 2015 - Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature .pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\M4FJWXEZ\\Smith et al. - 2015 - Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature .pdf:application/pdf}
}
Global Carbon Budget 2015. Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Korsbakken, J. I., Friedlingstein, P., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Keeling, R. F., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Bopp, L., Chang, J., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Fader, M., Feely, R. A., Gkritzalis, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Munro, D. R., Murata, A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S., Nojiri, Y., O'Brien, K., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Pérez, F. F., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., van Heuven, S., Vandemark, D., Viovy, N., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., & Zeng, N. Earth System Science Data, 7(2):349–396, dec, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1$\sigma$, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).
@article{LeQuere2015,
abstract = {Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1$\sigma$, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 {\%} above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 {\%} yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] {\%}, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 {\%} from EFF and 25 {\%} from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}} et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP{\_}2015).},
author = {{Le Qu{\'{e}}r{\'{e}}}, C. and Moriarty, R. and Andrew, R. M. and Canadell, J. G. and Sitch, S. and Korsbakken, J. I. and Friedlingstein, P. and Peters, G. P. and Andres, R. J. and Boden, T. A. and Houghton, R. A. and House, J. I. and Keeling, R. F. and Tans, P. and Arneth, A. and Bakker, D. C. E. and Barbero, L. and Bopp, L. and Chang, J. and Chevallier, F. and Chini, L. P. and Ciais, P. and Fader, M. and Feely, R. A. and Gkritzalis, T. and Harris, I. and Hauck, J. and Ilyina, T. and Jain, A. K. and Kato, E. and Kitidis, V. and {Klein Goldewijk}, K. and Koven, C. and Landsch{\"{u}}tzer, P. and Lauvset, S. K. and Lef{\`{e}}vre, N. and Lenton, A. and Lima, I. D. and Metzl, N. and Millero, F. and Munro, D. R. and Murata, A. and Nabel, J. E. M. S. and Nakaoka, S. and Nojiri, Y. and O'Brien, K. and Olsen, A. and Ono, T. and P{\'{e}}rez, F. F. and Pfeil, B. and Pierrot, D. and Poulter, B. and Rehder, G. and R{\"{o}}denbeck, C. and Saito, S. and Schuster, U. and Schwinger, J. and S{\'{e}}f{\'{e}}rian, R. and Steinhoff, T. and Stocker, B. D. and Sutton, A. J. and Takahashi, T. and Tilbrook, B. and van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T. and van der Werf, G. R. and van Heuven, S. and Vandemark, D. and Viovy, N. and Wiltshire, A. and Zaehle, S. and Zeng, N.},
doi = {10.5194/essd-7-349-2015},
issn = {1866-3516},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
month = {dec},
number = {2},
pages = {349--396},
title = {{Global Carbon Budget 2015}},
url = {http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/7/349/2015/},
volume = {7},
year = {2015}
}
Anthropocene: The Human Age. Monastersky, R. Nature, 519(7542):144–147, March, 2015. doi abstract bibtex Momentum is building to establish a new geological epoch that recognizes humanity's impact on the planet. But there is fierce debate behind the scenes. [Excerpt] [...] Through mining activities alone, humans move more sediment than all the world's rivers combined. Homo sapiens has also warmed the planet, raised sea levels, eroded the ozone layer and acidified the oceans. [\n] Given the magnitude of these changes, many researchers propose that the Anthropocene represents a new division of geological time. The concept has gained traction, especially in the past few years – and not just among geoscientists. The word has been invoked by archaeologists, historians and even gender-studies researchers; several museums around the world have exhibited art inspired by the Anthropocene; and the media have heartily adopted the idea. '' Welcome to the Anthropocene,'' The Economist announced in 2011. [\n] The greeting was a tad premature. Although the term is trending, the Anthropocene is still an amorphous notion – an unofficial name that has yet to be accepted as part of the geological timescale. That may change soon. A committee of researchers is currently hashing out whether to codify the Anthropocene as a formal geological unit, and when to define its starting point. [\n] But critics worry that important arguments against the proposal have been drowned out by popular enthusiasm, driven in part by environmentally minded researchers who want to highlight how destructive humans have become. Some supporters of the Anthropocene idea have even been likened to zealots. '' There's a similarity to certain religious groups who are extremely keen on their religion – to the extent that they think everybody who doesn't practise their religion is some kind of barbarian,'' says one geologist who asked not to be named. [\n] The debate has shone a spotlight on the typically unnoticed process by which geologists carve up Earth's 4.5 billion years of history. Normally, decisions about the geological timescale are made solely on the basis of stratigraphy – the evidence contained in layers of rock, ocean sediments, ice cores and other geological deposits. But the issue of the Anthropocene '' is an order of magnitude more complicated than the stratigraphy'', says Jan Zalasiewicz, a geologist at the University of Leicester, UK, and the chair of the Anthropocene Working Group that is evaluating the issue for the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS). [...] [\n] When the Anthropocene Working Group started investigating, it compiled a much longer long list of the changes wrought by humans. Agriculture, construction and the damming of rivers is stripping away sediment at least ten times as fast as the natural forces of erosion. Along some coastlines, the flood of nutrients from fertilizers has created oxygen-poor 'dead zones', and the extra CO2 from fossil-fuel burning has acidified the surface waters of the ocean by 0.1 pH units. The fingerprint of humans is clear in global temperatures, the rate of species extinctions and the loss of Arctic ice. [\n] The group, which includes Crutzen, initially leaned towards his idea of choosing the Industrial Revolution as the beginning of the Anthropocene. But other options were on the table. [\n] Some researchers have argued for a starting time that coincides with an expansion of agriculture and livestock cultivation more than 5,000 years ago4, or a surge in mining more than 3,000 years ago (see 'Humans at the helm'). But neither the Industrial Revolution nor those earlier changes have left unambiguous geological signals of human activity that are synchronous around the globe (see 'Landscape architecture'). [\n] This week in Nature, two researchers propose that a potential marker for the start of the Anthropocene could be a noticeable drop in atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 1570 and 1620, which is recorded in ice cores (see page 171). They link this change to the deaths of some 50 million indigenous people in the Americas, triggered by the arrival of Europeans. In the aftermath, forests took over 65 million hectares of abandoned agricultural fields – a surge of regrowth that reduced global CO2. [\n] In the working group, Zalasiewicz and others have been talking increasingly about another option – using the geological marks left by the atomic age. Between 1945 and 1963, when the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty took effect, nations conducted some 500 above-ground nuclear blasts. Debris from those explosions circled the globe and created an identifiable layer of radioactive elements in sediments. At the same time, humans were making geological impressions in a number of other ways – all part of what has been called the Great Acceleration of the modern world. Plastics started flooding the environment, along with aluminium, artificial fertilizers, concrete and leaded petrol, all of which have left signals in the sedimentary record. [...]
@article{monasterskyAnthropoceneHumanAge2015,
title = {Anthropocene: The Human Age},
author = {Monastersky, Richard},
year = {2015},
month = mar,
volume = {519},
pages = {144--147},
issn = {0028-0836},
doi = {10.1038/519144a},
abstract = {Momentum is building to establish a new geological epoch that recognizes humanity's impact on the planet. But there is fierce debate behind the scenes.
[Excerpt] [...] Through mining activities alone, humans move more sediment than all the world's rivers combined. Homo sapiens has also warmed the planet, raised sea levels, eroded the ozone layer and acidified the oceans.
[\textbackslash n] Given the magnitude of these changes, many researchers propose that the Anthropocene represents a new division of geological time. The concept has gained traction, especially in the past few years -- and not just among geoscientists. The word has been invoked by archaeologists, historians and even gender-studies researchers; several museums around the world have exhibited art inspired by the Anthropocene; and the media have heartily adopted the idea. '' Welcome to the Anthropocene,'' The Economist announced in 2011.
[\textbackslash n] The greeting was a tad premature. Although the term is trending, the Anthropocene is still an amorphous notion -- an unofficial name that has yet to be accepted as part of the geological timescale. That may change soon. A committee of researchers is currently hashing out whether to codify the Anthropocene as a formal geological unit, and when to define its starting point.
[\textbackslash n] But critics worry that important arguments against the proposal have been drowned out by popular enthusiasm, driven in part by environmentally minded researchers who want to highlight how destructive humans have become. Some supporters of the Anthropocene idea have even been likened to zealots. '' There's a similarity to certain religious groups who are extremely keen on their religion -- to the extent that they think everybody who doesn't practise their religion is some kind of barbarian,'' says one geologist who asked not to be named.
[\textbackslash n] The debate has shone a spotlight on the typically unnoticed process by which geologists carve up Earth's 4.5 billion years of history. Normally, decisions about the geological timescale are made solely on the basis of stratigraphy -- the evidence contained in layers of rock, ocean sediments, ice cores and other geological deposits. But the issue of the Anthropocene '' is an order of magnitude more complicated than the stratigraphy'', says Jan Zalasiewicz, a geologist at the University of Leicester, UK, and the chair of the Anthropocene Working Group that is evaluating the issue for the International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS). [...]
[\textbackslash n] When the Anthropocene Working Group started investigating, it compiled a much longer long list of the changes wrought by humans. Agriculture, construction and the damming of rivers is stripping away sediment at least ten times as fast as the natural forces of erosion. Along some coastlines, the flood of nutrients from fertilizers has created oxygen-poor 'dead zones', and the extra CO2 from fossil-fuel burning has acidified the surface waters of the ocean by 0.1 pH units. The fingerprint of humans is clear in global temperatures, the rate of species extinctions and the loss of Arctic ice.
[\textbackslash n] The group, which includes Crutzen, initially leaned towards his idea of choosing the Industrial Revolution as the beginning of the Anthropocene. But other options were on the table.
[\textbackslash n] Some researchers have argued for a starting time that coincides with an expansion of agriculture and livestock cultivation more than 5,000 years ago4, or a surge in mining more than 3,000 years ago (see 'Humans at the helm'). But neither the Industrial Revolution nor those earlier changes have left unambiguous geological signals of human activity that are synchronous around the globe (see 'Landscape architecture').
[\textbackslash n] This week in Nature, two researchers propose that a potential marker for the start of the Anthropocene could be a noticeable drop in atmospheric CO2 concentrations between 1570 and 1620, which is recorded in ice cores (see page 171). They link this change to the deaths of some 50 million indigenous people in the Americas, triggered by the arrival of Europeans. In the aftermath, forests took over 65 million hectares of abandoned agricultural fields -- a surge of regrowth that reduced global CO2.
[\textbackslash n] In the working group, Zalasiewicz and others have been talking increasingly about another option -- using the geological marks left by the atomic age. Between 1945 and 1963, when the Limited Nuclear Test Ban Treaty took effect, nations conducted some 500 above-ground nuclear blasts. Debris from those explosions circled the globe and created an identifiable layer of radioactive elements in sediments. At the same time, humans were making geological impressions in a number of other ways -- all part of what has been called the Great Acceleration of the modern world. Plastics started flooding the environment, along with aluminium, artificial fertilizers, concrete and leaded petrol, all of which have left signals in the sedimentary record. [...]},
journal = {Nature},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13547930,anthropic-feedback,anthropocene,anthropogenic-changes,anthropogenic-impacts,climate,ecology,evolution,featured-publication,long-distance-dispersal,species-distribution},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13547930},
number = {7542}
}
Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Martre, P., Rötter, R. P., Lobell, D. B., Cammarano, D., Kimball, B. A., Ottman, M. J., Wall, G. W., White, J. W., Reynolds, M. P., Alderman, P. D., Prasad, P. V. V., Aggarwal, P. K., Anothai, J., Basso, B., Biernath, C., Challinor, A. J., De Sanctis, G., Doltra, J., Fereres, E., Garcia-Vila, M., Gayler, S., Hoogenboom, G., Hunt, L. A., Izaurralde, R. C., Jabloun, M., Jones, C. D., Kersebaum, K. C., Koehler, A., Müller, C., Naresh Kumar, S., Nendel, C., O’Leary, G., Olesen, J. E., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Eyshi Rezaei, E., Ruane, A. C., Semenov, M. A., Shcherbak, I., Stöckle, C., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F., Thorburn, P. J., Waha, K., Wang, E., Wallach, D., Wolf, J., Zhao, Z., & Zhu, Y. Nature Climate Change, 5(2):143–147, February, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
@article{asseng_rising_2015,
title = {Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production},
volume = {5},
copyright = {© 2014 Nature Publishing Group},
issn = {1758-678X},
url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n2/full/nclimate2470.html},
doi = {10.1038/nclimate2470},
abstract = {Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6\% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.},
language = {en},
number = {2},
urldate = {2015-02-26},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
author = {Asseng, S. and Ewert, F. and Martre, P. and Rötter, R. P. and Lobell, D. B. and Cammarano, D. and Kimball, B. A. and Ottman, M. J. and Wall, G. W. and White, J. W. and Reynolds, M. P. and Alderman, P. D. and Prasad, P. V. V. and Aggarwal, P. K. and Anothai, J. and Basso, B. and Biernath, C. and Challinor, A. J. and De Sanctis, G. and Doltra, J. and Fereres, E. and Garcia-Vila, M. and Gayler, S. and Hoogenboom, G. and Hunt, L. A. and Izaurralde, R. C. and Jabloun, M. and Jones, C. D. and Kersebaum, K. C. and Koehler, A.-K. and Müller, C. and Naresh Kumar, S. and Nendel, C. and O’Leary, G. and Olesen, J. E. and Palosuo, T. and Priesack, E. and Eyshi Rezaei, E. and Ruane, A. C. and Semenov, M. A. and Shcherbak, I. and Stöckle, C. and Stratonovitch, P. and Streck, T. and Supit, I. and Tao, F. and Thorburn, P. J. and Waha, K. and Wang, E. and Wallach, D. and Wolf, J. and Zhao, Z. and Zhu, Y.},
month = feb,
year = {2015},
keywords = {boundaries, collapse, agriculture-food-famine, climate},
pages = {143--147},
file = {Asseng et al. - 2015 - Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\WNX3JWN2\\Asseng et al. - 2015 - Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production.pdf:application/pdf}
}
Forest Health and Global Change. Trumbore, S., Brando, P., & Hartmann, H. Science, 349(6250):814–818, August, 2015. doi abstract bibtex Humans rely on healthy forests to supply energy, building materials, and food and to provide services such as storing carbon, hosting biodiversity, and regulating climate. Defining forest health integrates utilitarian and ecosystem measures of forest condition and function, implemented across a range of spatial scales. Although native forests are adapted to some level of disturbance, all forests now face novel stresses in the form of climate change, air pollution, and invasive pests. Detecting how intensification of these stresses will affect the trajectory of forests is a major scientific challenge that requires developing systems to assess the health of global forests. It is particularly critical to identify thresholds for rapid forest decline, because it can take many decades for forests to restore the services that they provide. [Excerpt] Forests have evolved while experiencing disturbances such as drought, windthrow (when trees are uprooted or overthrown by wind), insect and disease outbreaks, and fire. However, forests worldwide increasingly must also cope with human-related intensification of stressors that affect forest condition, either directly through logging and clearing or indirectly through climate change, air pollution, and invasive species. These novel disturbances alter forest communities and environmental conditions outside the ranges in which current forests evolved and occur too fast for evolutionary adaptation processes to keep pace. Thus, the future of global forests will be determined by the trajectory of complex forest system responses to multiple stressors that span local to global scales. [...] [How do we measure forest condition and assess forest health?] [...] Forests contain trees subjected to periodic stresses (e.g., drought stress) that affect the resilience of individuals and, if very intense or often repeated, can lead to mortality. We distinguish such stresses from disturbances that can kill healthy as well as unhealthy trees (e.g., windthrow, fire, and logging). Both can produce a dying patch of forest that might be considered in itself unhealthy but can facilitate a whole suite of essential ecological process such as regeneration, nutrient cycling, or habitat creation at broader spatial scales. Thus, a healthy forest is one that encompasses a mosaic of successional patches representing all stages of the natural range of disturbance and recovery. Such forests promote a diversity of nutrient dynamics, cover types, and stand structures, and they create a range of habitat niches for endemic fauna. The challenge is determining when the frequency, spatial extent, and strength of stresses and disturbances exceed the natural range of variability and affect the trajectory of vegetation recovery at the landscape to regional scale. [What is the legacy of declines in forest health?] One of the key attributes of a healthy forest system is its ability to recover from disturbance. [...] [] The various functions associated with forests recover over different time scales after major disturbances. For example, even in severely damaged forests, new leaf cover can obscure open canopy areas in as little as a few months. [...] Biomass and the associated carbon storage functions of forests recover more slowly than fluxes, taking decades to centuries to replace losses. Other forest functions, such as biodiversity, can take even longer to recover, because they depend on the presence of individual species. Although gap formation in forests can sustain biodiversity at the landscape or regional level, very broad-scale disturbances such as deforestation and firestorms dramatically reduce diversity. In such cases, the recovery of biodiversity requires replacement of the full range of tree species as well as of the fauna they host.[...] Soil-derived nutrients are resupplied slowly by atmospheric dust or mineral weathering. Thus, nutrient depletion associated with disturbance may ultimately limit the rate and degree of recovery of other functions. The difficulty is to determine which of these functions are required to recover a healthy forest condition. [] Although we have concentrated on ecosystem properties, the definition of forest recovery also has implications for the utilitarian perspective. Forests that do not fully achieve predisturbance levels of diversity or nutrient status can almost fully regain wood production or carbon storage services, given sufficient time. A single large event such as a drought may remove the most susceptible species and leave behind more drought-resistant trees, potentially reducing tree mortality in successive droughts. However, if selective mortality occurs over a large enough area, the carbon storage and diversity services that were offered by the drought-sensitive species will take decades to centuries to recover. Thus, broad-scale and persistent degradation of forests will have lasting consequences, even if the forests themselves eventually recover. [...] [Are we facing a future without healthy forests?] [...] Given that many of the trees alive today will experience temperatures and CO2 levels outside the range to which they are adapted, it is critical to improve efforts to monitor forests and especially tree mortality. [] Forests have existed for far longer than humans and have already survived a wide range of past changes in climate conditions. Over the long term, forests will probably prove resilient to rapid anthropogenic changes in climate and environment, whether in their current form or in novel community assemblages. Human concerns about forest health mostly reflect our dependence on the continued availability of the products and services that forests provide. Our vulnerability to even temporary disruptions in their supply underlines our urgent need to detect, understand, and predict potential declines in global forest health.
@article{trumboreForestHealthGlobal2015,
title = {Forest Health and Global Change},
author = {Trumbore, S. and Brando, P. and Hartmann, H.},
year = {2015},
month = aug,
volume = {349},
pages = {814--818},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.aac6759},
abstract = {Humans rely on healthy forests to supply energy, building materials, and food and to provide services such as storing carbon, hosting biodiversity, and regulating climate. Defining forest health integrates utilitarian and ecosystem measures of forest condition and function, implemented across a range of spatial scales. Although native forests are adapted to some level of disturbance, all forests now face novel stresses in the form of climate change, air pollution, and invasive pests. Detecting how intensification of these stresses will affect the trajectory of forests is a major scientific challenge that requires developing systems to assess the health of global forests. It is particularly critical to identify thresholds for rapid forest decline, because it can take many decades for forests to restore the services that they provide.
[Excerpt] Forests have evolved while experiencing disturbances such as drought, windthrow (when trees are uprooted or overthrown by wind), insect and disease outbreaks, and fire. However, forests worldwide increasingly must also cope with human-related intensification of stressors that affect forest condition, either directly through logging and clearing or indirectly through climate change, air pollution, and invasive species. These novel disturbances alter forest communities and environmental conditions outside the ranges in which current forests evolved and occur too fast for evolutionary adaptation processes to keep pace. Thus, the future of global forests will be determined by the trajectory of complex forest system responses to multiple stressors that span local to global scales. [...]
[How do we measure forest condition and assess forest health?] [...] Forests contain trees subjected to periodic stresses (e.g., drought stress) that affect the resilience of individuals and, if very intense or often repeated, can lead to mortality. We distinguish such stresses from disturbances that can kill healthy as well as unhealthy trees (e.g., windthrow, fire, and logging). Both can produce a dying patch of forest that might be considered in itself unhealthy but can facilitate a whole suite of essential ecological process such as regeneration, nutrient cycling, or habitat creation at broader spatial scales. Thus, a healthy forest is one that encompasses a mosaic of successional patches representing all stages of the natural range of disturbance and recovery. Such forests promote a diversity of nutrient dynamics, cover types, and stand structures, and they create a range of habitat niches for endemic fauna. The challenge is determining when the frequency, spatial extent, and strength of stresses and disturbances exceed the natural range of variability and affect the trajectory of vegetation recovery at the landscape to regional scale.
[What is the legacy of declines in forest health?] One of the key attributes of a healthy forest system is its ability to recover from disturbance. [...]
[] The various functions associated with forests recover over different time scales after major disturbances. For example, even in severely damaged forests, new leaf cover can obscure open canopy areas in as little as a few months. [...] Biomass and the associated carbon storage functions of forests recover more slowly than fluxes, taking decades to centuries to replace losses. Other forest functions, such as biodiversity, can take even longer to recover, because they depend on the presence of individual species. Although gap formation in forests can sustain biodiversity at the landscape or regional level, very broad-scale disturbances such as deforestation and firestorms dramatically reduce diversity. In such cases, the recovery of biodiversity requires replacement of the full range of tree species as well as of the fauna they host.[...] Soil-derived nutrients are resupplied slowly by atmospheric dust or mineral weathering. Thus, nutrient depletion associated with disturbance may ultimately limit the rate and degree of recovery of other functions. The difficulty is to determine which of these functions are required to recover a healthy forest condition.
[] Although we have concentrated on ecosystem properties, the definition of forest recovery also has implications for the utilitarian perspective. Forests that do not fully achieve predisturbance levels of diversity or nutrient status can almost fully regain wood production or carbon storage services, given sufficient time. A single large event such as a drought may remove the most susceptible species and leave behind more drought-resistant trees, potentially reducing tree mortality in successive droughts. However, if selective mortality occurs over a large enough area, the carbon storage and diversity services that were offered by the drought-sensitive species will take decades to centuries to recover. Thus, broad-scale and persistent degradation of forests will have lasting consequences, even if the forests themselves eventually recover. [...]
[Are we facing a future without healthy forests?]
[...] Given that many of the trees alive today will experience temperatures and CO2 levels outside the range to which they are adapted, it is critical to improve efforts to monitor forests and especially tree mortality.
[] Forests have existed for far longer than humans and have already survived a wide range of past changes in climate conditions. Over the long term, forests will probably prove resilient to rapid anthropogenic changes in climate and environment, whether in their current form or in novel community assemblages. Human concerns about forest health mostly reflect our dependence on the continued availability of the products and services that forests provide. Our vulnerability to even temporary disruptions in their supply underlines our urgent need to detect, understand, and predict potential declines in global forest health.},
journal = {Science},
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lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708350},
number = {6250}
}
Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human CO2 emissions. Nagelkerken, I. & Connell, S. D. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(43):13272–13277, 2015.
Paper abstract bibtex Rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are anticipated to drive change to ocean ecosystems, but a conceptualization of biological change derived from quantitative analyses is lacking. Derived from multiple ecosystems and latitudes, our metaanalysis of 632 published experiments quantified the direction and magnitude of ecological change resulting from ocean acidification and warming to conceptualize broadly based change. Primary production by temperate noncalcifying plankton increases with elevated temperature and CO2, whereas tropical plankton decreases productivity because of acidification. Temperature increases consumption by and metabolic rates of herbivores, but this response does not translate into greater secondary production, which instead decreases with acidification in calcifying and noncalcifying species. This effect creates a mismatch with carnivores whose metabolic and foraging costs increase with temperature. Species diversity and abundances of tropical as well as temperate species decline with acidification, with shifts favoring novel community compositions dominated by noncalcifiers and microorganisms. Both warming and acidification instigate reduced calcification in tropical and temperate reef-building species. Acidification leads to a decline in dimethylsulfide production by ocean plankton, which as a climate gas, contributes to cloud formation and maintenance of the Earth’s heat budget. Analysis of responses in short- and long-term experiments and of studies at natural CO2 vents reveals little evidence of acclimation to acidification or temperature changes, except for microbes. This conceptualization of change across whole communities and their trophic linkages forecast a reduction in diversity and abundances of various key species that underpin current functioning of marine ecosystems.
@article{nagelkerken_global_2015,
title = {Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human {CO}2 emissions},
volume = {112},
url = {http://www.pnas.org/content/112/43/13272.short},
abstract = {Rising anthropogenic CO2 emissions are anticipated to drive change to ocean ecosystems, but a conceptualization of biological change derived from quantitative analyses is lacking. Derived from multiple ecosystems and latitudes, our metaanalysis of 632 published experiments quantified the direction and magnitude of ecological change resulting from ocean acidification and warming to conceptualize broadly based change. Primary production by temperate noncalcifying plankton increases with elevated temperature and CO2, whereas tropical plankton decreases productivity because of acidification. Temperature increases consumption by and metabolic rates of herbivores, but this response does not translate into greater secondary production, which instead decreases with acidification in calcifying and noncalcifying species. This effect creates a mismatch with carnivores whose metabolic and foraging costs increase with temperature. Species diversity and abundances of tropical as well as temperate species decline with acidification, with shifts favoring novel community compositions dominated by noncalcifiers and microorganisms. Both warming and acidification instigate reduced calcification in tropical and temperate reef-building species. Acidification leads to a decline in dimethylsulfide production by ocean plankton, which as a climate gas, contributes to cloud formation and maintenance of the Earth’s heat budget. Analysis of responses in short- and long-term experiments and of studies at natural CO2 vents reveals little evidence of acclimation to acidification or temperature changes, except for microbes. This conceptualization of change across whole communities and their trophic linkages forecast a reduction in diversity and abundances of various key species that underpin current functioning of marine ecosystems.},
number = {43},
urldate = {2015-11-10},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
author = {Nagelkerken, Ivan and Connell, Sean D.},
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keywords = {biodiversity, boundaries, collapse, oceans},
pages = {13272--13277},
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Open ocean dead zones in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Karstensen, J., Fiedler, B., Schütte, F., Brandt, P., Körtzinger, A., Fischer, G., Zantopp, R., Hahn, J., Visbeck, M., & Wallace, D. Biogeosciences, 12(8):2597–2605, apr, 2015.
Paper doi abstract bibtex Here we present first observations, from instrumentation installed on moorings and a float, of unexpectedly low (−1) oxygen environments in the open waters of the tropical North Atlantic, a region where oxygen concentration does normally not fall much below 40 $\mu$mol kg−1. The low-oxygen zones are created at shallow depth, just below the mixed layer, in the euphotic zone of cyclonic eddies and anticyclonic-modewater eddies. Both types of eddies are prone to high surface productivity. Net respiration rates for the eddies are found to be 3 to 5 times higher when compared with surrounding waters. Oxygen is lowest in the centre of the eddies, in a depth range where the swirl velocity, defining the transition between eddy and surroundings, has its maximum. It is assumed that the strong velocity at the outer rim of the eddies hampers the transport of properties across the eddies boundary and as such isolates their cores. This is supported by a remarkably stable hydrographic structure of the eddies core over periods of several months. The eddies propagate westward, at about 4 to 5 km day−1, from their generation region off the West African coast into the open ocean. High productivity and accompanying respiration, paired with sluggish exchange across the eddy boundary, create the "dead zone" inside the eddies, so far only reported for coastal areas or lakes. We observe a direct impact of the open ocean dead zones on the marine ecosystem as such that the diurnal vertical migration of zooplankton is suppressed inside the eddies.
@article{Karstensen2015,
abstract = {Here we present first observations, from instrumentation installed on moorings and a float, of unexpectedly low (−1) oxygen environments in the open waters of the tropical North Atlantic, a region where oxygen concentration does normally not fall much below 40 $\mu$mol kg−1. The low-oxygen zones are created at shallow depth, just below the mixed layer, in the euphotic zone of cyclonic eddies and anticyclonic-modewater eddies. Both types of eddies are prone to high surface productivity. Net respiration rates for the eddies are found to be 3 to 5 times higher when compared with surrounding waters. Oxygen is lowest in the centre of the eddies, in a depth range where the swirl velocity, defining the transition between eddy and surroundings, has its maximum. It is assumed that the strong velocity at the outer rim of the eddies hampers the transport of properties across the eddies boundary and as such isolates their cores. This is supported by a remarkably stable hydrographic structure of the eddies core over periods of several months. The eddies propagate westward, at about 4 to 5 km day−1, from their generation region off the West African coast into the open ocean. High productivity and accompanying respiration, paired with sluggish exchange across the eddy boundary, create the "dead zone" inside the eddies, so far only reported for coastal areas or lakes. We observe a direct impact of the open ocean dead zones on the marine ecosystem as such that the diurnal vertical migration of zooplankton is suppressed inside the eddies.},
author = {Karstensen, J. and Fiedler, B. and Sch{\"{u}}tte, F. and Brandt, P. and K{\"{o}}rtzinger, A. and Fischer, G. and Zantopp, R. and Hahn, J. and Visbeck, M. and Wallace, D.},
doi = {10.5194/bg-12-2597-2015},
issn = {1726-4189},
journal = {Biogeosciences},
month = {apr},
number = {8},
pages = {2597--2605},
title = {{Open ocean dead zones in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean}},
url = {http://www.biogeosciences.net/12/2597/2015/},
volume = {12},
year = {2015}
}
Monitoring of initial porosity and new pores formation during drying: A scientific debate and a technical challenge. Khalloufi, S., Kharaghani, A., Almeida-Rivera, C., Nijsse, J., van Dalen, G., & Tsotsas, E. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 45(2):179-186, 10, 2015.
Website abstract bibtex BACKGROUND
Until recently, the main/unique mechanism used to describe porosity was the evolution of the empty spaces formed as a result of water removed during drying. Although we have suggested, previously, two functions (shrinkage and collapse) to capture both the empty spaces formed as a result of water removed (first mechanism), and the evolutions initial empty spaces (second mechanism), it is still not clear yet how to interpret separately the two mechanisms. Indeed, so far, there is no technical measurement available to isolate these two mechanisms form each other.
SCOPE AND APPROACH
In this investigation, we aim at confirming the effect of the second mechanism (evolution of initial porosity) that should be considered when modelling porosity of foodstuffs. A selection of fresh products (eggplant, zucchini and mushroom) were chosen as prototypes for which the initial porosity cannot be ignored. A deep analysis of some published data, for apple and pear, was performed aiming at understanding the sequence of these two mechanisms during the drying processes.
KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
By using X-ray microtomography (μ-CT) imaging, it has been possible to demonstrate that the initial empty spaces “initial porosity” of some fresh products is highly significant. The results of some mathematical simulations revealed that the two mechanisms are interrelated and therefore cannot be fully isolated and interpreted separately. This study opens a challenging scientific debate and an opportunity for finding a new approach for measuring/monitoring separately the two mechanisms during drying processes.
@article{
title = {Monitoring of initial porosity and new pores formation during drying: A scientific debate and a technical challenge},
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abstract = {BACKGROUND
Until recently, the main/unique mechanism used to describe porosity was the evolution of the empty spaces formed as a result of water removed during drying. Although we have suggested, previously, two functions (shrinkage and collapse) to capture both the empty spaces formed as a result of water removed (first mechanism), and the evolutions initial empty spaces (second mechanism), it is still not clear yet how to interpret separately the two mechanisms. Indeed, so far, there is no technical measurement available to isolate these two mechanisms form each other.
SCOPE AND APPROACH
In this investigation, we aim at confirming the effect of the second mechanism (evolution of initial porosity) that should be considered when modelling porosity of foodstuffs. A selection of fresh products (eggplant, zucchini and mushroom) were chosen as prototypes for which the initial porosity cannot be ignored. A deep analysis of some published data, for apple and pear, was performed aiming at understanding the sequence of these two mechanisms during the drying processes.
KEY FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
By using X-ray microtomography (μ-CT) imaging, it has been possible to demonstrate that the initial empty spaces “initial porosity” of some fresh products is highly significant. The results of some mathematical simulations revealed that the two mechanisms are interrelated and therefore cannot be fully isolated and interpreted separately. This study opens a challenging scientific debate and an opportunity for finding a new approach for measuring/monitoring separately the two mechanisms during drying processes.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Khalloufi, Seddik and Kharaghani, Abdolreza and Almeida-Rivera, Cristhian and Nijsse, Jaap and van Dalen, Gerard and Tsotsas, Evangelos},
journal = {Trends in Food Science & Technology},
number = {2}
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Porosity, Bulk Density, and Volume Reduction During Drying: Review of Measurement Methods and Coefficient Determinations. Qiu, J., Khalloufi, S., Martynenko, A., Van Dalen, G., Schutyser, M., & Almeida-Rivera, C. Drying Technology, 33(14):1681-1699, 2015. abstract bibtex © 2015, Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Several experimental methods for measuring porosity, bulk density, and volume reduction during drying of foodstuffs are available. These methods include, among others, geometric dimension, volume displacement, mercury porosimeter, micro-CT, and NMR. However, data on their accuracy, sensitivity, and appropriateness are scarce. This article reviews these experimental methods, areas of applications, and limits. In addition, the concept of porosity, bulk density, and volume reduction and their evolution as a function of moisture content during drying are presented. In this study, values of initial porosity (ϵ0) and density ratio (β) of some food products are summarized. It has been found that ϵ0 is highly dependent on the type of food products, while β ranges from 1.1 to 1.6. The possibility of calculating solid density based on food compositions has also been validated. The inter-predictions between porosity, bulk density, and volume density have been made mathematically evident.
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title = {Porosity, Bulk Density, and Volume Reduction During Drying: Review of Measurement Methods and Coefficient Determinations},
type = {article},
year = {2015},
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abstract = {© 2015, Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. Several experimental methods for measuring porosity, bulk density, and volume reduction during drying of foodstuffs are available. These methods include, among others, geometric dimension, volume displacement, mercury porosimeter, micro-CT, and NMR. However, data on their accuracy, sensitivity, and appropriateness are scarce. This article reviews these experimental methods, areas of applications, and limits. In addition, the concept of porosity, bulk density, and volume reduction and their evolution as a function of moisture content during drying are presented. In this study, values of initial porosity (ϵ<inf>0</inf>) and density ratio (β) of some food products are summarized. It has been found that ϵ<inf>0</inf> is highly dependent on the type of food products, while β ranges from 1.1 to 1.6. The possibility of calculating solid density based on food compositions has also been validated. The inter-predictions between porosity, bulk density, and volume density have been made mathematically evident.},
bibtype = {article},
author = {Qiu, J. and Khalloufi, S. and Martynenko, A. and Van Dalen, G. and Schutyser, M. and Almeida-Rivera, C.},
journal = {Drying Technology},
number = {14}
}
Temperate Forest Health in an Era of Emerging Megadisturbance. Millar, C. I. & Stephenson, N. L. Science, 349(6250):823–826, August, 2015. doi abstract bibtex Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services. [Excerpt] Forests not only are essential components of the natural environment but also offer profound spiritual and material benefits to humanity. After centuries of exploitation, there is much to celebrate in the resilience (ability to rebound after perturbation) of temperate forests. Broad swaths of forest that were cut in recent centuries continue to regrow vigorously, absorbing a substantial proportion of anthropogenic carbon-dioxide emissions (1). Despite deeply concerning declines of ancient trees in forests worldwide (2), large trees are increasingly abundant in areas of temperate forests that are regrowing after logging (3). In other regions, air-quality regulations have reduced acidic deposition and other air-pollution effects on forests, providing improved conditions for forest growth and sustainability (4). [] Despite some encouraging trends, 21st-century forests still face grave threats. For millennia, the main threat to forests was overexploitation, but recent research has identified a range of emerging challenges to forest persistence and health. We focus on emerging '' megadisturbances'' that are capable of driving abrupt tree mortality of a spatial extent, severity, and frequency surpassing that recorded during recent human history. Where these occur, effects to ecosystems and society follow. Thus, while acknowledging the resilience of many forests, we highlight here the nature and consequences of changing environmental conditions that increasingly threaten widespread regions of temperate forest. In particular, we describe the rise of an especially potent threat to forest health that has only recently begun to receive broad attention, that is, persistent and recurring drought combined with high temperatures (see Fig. 1). [...] [Forests of the future: Easing transitions] What do these changes portend for temperate forests through the 21st century? In the short term, some forests will likely continue to absorb or rebound from disturbances, sustain a diversity of ecological functions, and deliver ecosystem services similar to those of past decades (Fig. 2). Over the longer term, however, most temperate forests are likely to change in condition (49), with megadisturbances frequently catalyzing these effects (14). The changes could range from minor shifts in forest structure (e.g., tree density and ages) and species compositions to major transformation of vegetation types, some resulting in novel ecosystems relative to recent centuries. In many cases, drought-hardy species, species with physiological plasticity capable of coping with compound stresses, and species with shorter statures might outcompete current species (50, 51). Native insects and pathogens may effectively act as invasive exotics as they move beyond their historic ranges (52). [] Minimizing the effects to society from these transitions is emerging as a primary goal for forest management today (Fig. 4). A challenge to research will be to develop tools to assess the sensitivity of forests to thresholds from cumulative disturbances and evaluate their vulnerability to transformation. If we can identify in advance the most vulnerable forests, in some cases management intervention might be able to ease the transition to new and better-adapted forest states, minimizing losses of ecosystem services. Because the scope of the challenge is vast, triage exercises will almost certainly be necessary to identify the highest-priority forests and those where management action might have the greatest effect. [] Success will depend on far more integrated and coordinated efforts by institutions, agencies, and governments than presently exists (53). Distributed monitoring systems that observe changes on multiple scales of forest health are essential; these will become increasingly reliant on remote methods. Climate adaptation will likely move from compartmentalized to comprehensive strategies, with attention to proactive methods (54). Although thresholds are likely to be approached in the future, and changes are inevitable, the actions we take now in temperate forests can ease and guide transitions, diminishing effects to forest ecosystems and human societies.
@article{millarTemperateForestHealth2015,
title = {Temperate Forest Health in an Era of Emerging Megadisturbance},
author = {Millar, Constance I. and Stephenson, Nathan L.},
year = {2015},
month = aug,
volume = {349},
pages = {823--826},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.aaa9933},
abstract = {Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services.
[Excerpt] Forests not only are essential components of the natural environment but also offer profound spiritual and material benefits to humanity. After centuries of exploitation, there is much to celebrate in the resilience (ability to rebound after perturbation) of temperate forests. Broad swaths of forest that were cut in recent centuries continue to regrow vigorously, absorbing a substantial proportion of anthropogenic carbon-dioxide emissions (1). Despite deeply concerning declines of ancient trees in forests worldwide (2), large trees are increasingly abundant in areas of temperate forests that are regrowing after logging (3). In other regions, air-quality regulations have reduced acidic deposition and other air-pollution effects on forests, providing improved conditions for forest growth and sustainability (4).
[] Despite some encouraging trends, 21st-century forests still face grave threats. For millennia, the main threat to forests was overexploitation, but recent research has identified a range of emerging challenges to forest persistence and health. We focus on emerging '' megadisturbances'' that are capable of driving abrupt tree mortality of a spatial extent, severity, and frequency surpassing that recorded during recent human history. Where these occur, effects to ecosystems and society follow. Thus, while acknowledging the resilience of many forests, we highlight here the nature and consequences of changing environmental conditions that increasingly threaten widespread regions of temperate forest. In particular, we describe the rise of an especially potent threat to forest health that has only recently begun to receive broad attention, that is, persistent and recurring drought combined with high temperatures (see Fig. 1). [...]
[Forests of the future: Easing transitions]
What do these changes portend for temperate forests through the 21st century? In the short term, some forests will likely continue to absorb or rebound from disturbances, sustain a diversity of ecological functions, and deliver ecosystem services similar to those of past decades (Fig. 2). Over the longer term, however, most temperate forests are likely to change in condition (49), with megadisturbances frequently catalyzing these effects (14). The changes could range from minor shifts in forest structure (e.g., tree density and ages) and species compositions to major transformation of vegetation types, some resulting in novel ecosystems relative to recent centuries. In many cases, drought-hardy species, species with physiological plasticity capable of coping with compound stresses, and species with shorter statures might outcompete current species (50, 51). Native insects and pathogens may effectively act as invasive exotics as they move beyond their historic ranges (52).
[] Minimizing the effects to society from these transitions is emerging as a primary goal for forest management today (Fig. 4). A challenge to research will be to develop tools to assess the sensitivity of forests to thresholds from cumulative disturbances and evaluate their vulnerability to transformation. If we can identify in advance the most vulnerable forests, in some cases management intervention might be able to ease the transition to new and better-adapted forest states, minimizing losses of ecosystem services. Because the scope of the challenge is vast, triage exercises will almost certainly be necessary to identify the highest-priority forests and those where management action might have the greatest effect.
[] Success will depend on far more integrated and coordinated efforts by institutions, agencies, and governments than presently exists (53). Distributed monitoring systems that observe changes on multiple scales of forest health are essential; these will become increasingly reliant on remote methods. Climate adaptation will likely move from compartmentalized to comprehensive strategies, with attention to proactive methods (54). Although thresholds are likely to be approached in the future, and changes are inevitable, the actions we take now in temperate forests can ease and guide transitions, diminishing effects to forest ecosystems and human societies.},
journal = {Science},
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lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708352},
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Forestry in the Anthropocene. Lugo, A. E. Science, 349(6250):771, August, 2015. doi abstract bibtex [Excerpt] Human activity has had enormous effects on the species composition of floras and faunas, creating new ecological biomes worldwide. A principal challenge in forestry research and conservation is how to deal with these novel ecosystems. Most attention to this phenomenon is centered on the negative effects of species introductions and the need to stem the tide of species invasion. However, we need to scientifically understand new ecosystems and learn to recognize adaptive species combinations that will function sustainably in changing environmental conditions. [...] [] The role of forests in mitigating climate change is foremost in the minds of most conservationists and for scientists responsible for global ecosystem models. Forests are now valued as much for their diverse ecological services as they are for their wood production. As such, efforts have been increasing to sustain the world's forests. In the tropics, which contain over half of the world's forests and a disproportionate amount of global biodiversity, over half of the forest area is now '' secondary'' regenerating forest, replacing trees that have been lost to agricultural activities. The amount of global land covered by cultivated plantation forests is now at a historical high – roughly 200 million ha. And urban forests are now recognized for their role in supporting the quality of life in cities where over half of the world's population lives. These changes in the forest landscape, coupled with the accelerated movement of species across biogeographical barriers, are creating novel ecosystems that we don't fully understand. [...] [] For forests, the major questions include how they respond to Anthropocene conditions and how they mitigate anthropogenic disturbances. Without abandoning current research, priorities include focusing on novel forests, urban environments, and anthropogenic biomes. [...] [] Professional foresters and ecologists must share the responsibility of forest research and conservation with other professions from the natural and social sciences through new combinations of science such as eco-hydrology and social-ecological sciences. Because of the uncertainty of Anthropocene conditions, research that looks at new sustainable ecosystem dynamics and conservation actions must come together as never before.
@article{lugoForestryAnthropocene2015,
title = {Forestry in the {{Anthropocene}}},
author = {Lugo, Ariel E.},
year = {2015},
month = aug,
volume = {349},
pages = {771},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.aad2208},
abstract = {[Excerpt] Human activity has had enormous effects on the species composition of floras and faunas, creating new ecological biomes worldwide. A principal challenge in forestry research and conservation is how to deal with these novel ecosystems. Most attention to this phenomenon is centered on the negative effects of species introductions and the need to stem the tide of species invasion. However, we need to scientifically understand new ecosystems and learn to recognize adaptive species combinations that will function sustainably in changing environmental conditions. [...]
[] The role of forests in mitigating climate change is foremost in the minds of most conservationists and for scientists responsible for global ecosystem models. Forests are now valued as much for their diverse ecological services as they are for their wood production. As such, efforts have been increasing to sustain the world's forests. In the tropics, which contain over half of the world's forests and a disproportionate amount of global biodiversity, over half of the forest area is now '' secondary'' regenerating forest, replacing trees that have been lost to agricultural activities. The amount of global land covered by cultivated plantation forests is now at a historical high -- roughly 200 million ha. And urban forests are now recognized for their role in supporting the quality of life in cities where over half of the world's population lives. These changes in the forest landscape, coupled with the accelerated movement of species across biogeographical barriers, are creating novel ecosystems that we don't fully understand. [...]
[] For forests, the major questions include how they respond to Anthropocene conditions and how they mitigate anthropogenic disturbances. Without abandoning current research, priorities include focusing on novel forests, urban environments, and anthropogenic biomes. [...]
[] Professional foresters and ecologists must share the responsibility of forest research and conservation with other professions from the natural and social sciences through new combinations of science such as eco-hydrology and social-ecological sciences. Because of the uncertainty of Anthropocene conditions, research that looks at new sustainable ecosystem dynamics and conservation actions must come together as never before.},
journal = {Science},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13708337,~to-add-doi-URL,anthropocene,conservation,ecology,ecosystem-services,forest-dynamics,forest-resources,global-change,knowledge-integration,sustainability},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708337},
number = {6250}
}
Resilience and Reactivity of Global Food Security. Suweis, S., Carr, J. A., Maritan, A., Rinaldo, A., & D'Odorico, P. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(22):6902–6907, June, 2015. doi abstract bibtex [Significance] The past few decades have seen an intensification of international food trade and the increase in the number of countries that depend on food imports. As an effect of the associated globalization of food, local shocks in food production, combined with the adoption of new national or regional energy and trade policies, have recently led to global food crises. Here we develop a framework to investigate the coupled global food-population dynamics, and evaluate the effect of international trade on global food security. We find that, as the dependency on trade increases, the global food system is losing resilience and is becoming increasingly unstable and susceptible to conditions of crisis. [Abstract] The escalating food demand by a growing and increasingly affluent global population is placing unprecedented pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet, underpinning concerns over global food security and its sensitivity to shocks arising from environmental fluctuations, trade policies, and market volatility. Here, we use country-specific demographic records along with food production and trade data for the past 25 y to evaluate the stability and reactivity of the relationship between population dynamics and food availability. We develop a framework for the assessment of the resilience and the reactivity of the coupled population-food system and suggest that over the past two decades both its sensitivity to external perturbations and susceptibility to instability have increased.
@article{suweisResilienceReactivityGlobal2015,
title = {Resilience and Reactivity of Global Food Security},
author = {Suweis, Samir and Carr, Joel A. and Maritan, Amos and Rinaldo, Andrea and D'Odorico, Paolo},
year = {2015},
month = jun,
volume = {112},
pages = {6902--6907},
issn = {1091-6490},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1507366112},
abstract = {[Significance]
The past few decades have seen an intensification of international food trade and the increase in the number of countries that depend on food imports. As an effect of the associated globalization of food, local shocks in food production, combined with the adoption of new national or regional energy and trade policies, have recently led to global food crises. Here we develop a framework to investigate the coupled global food-population dynamics, and evaluate the effect of international trade on global food security. We find that, as the dependency on trade increases, the global food system is losing resilience and is becoming increasingly unstable and susceptible to conditions of crisis.
[Abstract]
The escalating food demand by a growing and increasingly affluent global population is placing unprecedented pressure on the limited land and water resources of the planet, underpinning concerns over global food security and its sensitivity to shocks arising from environmental fluctuations, trade policies, and market volatility. Here, we use country-specific demographic records along with food production and trade data for the past 25 y to evaluate the stability and reactivity of the relationship between population dynamics and food availability. We develop a framework for the assessment of the resilience and the reactivity of the coupled population-food system and suggest that over the past two decades both its sensitivity to external perturbations and susceptibility to instability have increased.},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13609043,~to-add-doi-URL,complexity,food-security,global-scale,resilience,system-of-systems},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13609043},
number = {22}
}
Planted Forest Health: The Need for a Global Strategy. Wingfield, M. J., Brockerhoff, E. G., Wingfield, B. D., & Slippers, B. Science, 349(6250):832–836, August, 2015. doi abstract bibtex Several key tree genera are used in planted forests worldwide, and these represent valuable global resources. Planted forests are increasingly threatened by insects and microbial pathogens, which are introduced accidentally and/or have adapted to new host trees. Globalization has hastened tree pest emergence, despite a growing awareness of the problem, improved understanding of the costs, and an increased focus on the importance of quarantine. To protect the value and potential of planted forests, innovative solutions and a better-coordinated global approach are needed. Mitigation strategies that are effective only in wealthy countries fail to contain invasions elsewhere in the world, ultimately leading to global impacts. Solutions to forest pest problems in the future should mainly focus on integrating management approaches globally, rather than single-country strategies. A global strategy to manage pest issues is vitally important and urgently needed. [Excerpt] Forests and woodland ecosystems are a hugely important natural resource, easily overlooked and often undervalued (1-3). Globally, one in six people is estimated to rely on forests for food (3), and many more depend on forests for other critical ecosystem services, such as climate regulation, carbon storage, human health, and the genetic resources that underpin important wood and wood products-based industries. However, the health of forests, both natural and managed, is more heavily threatened at present than ever before (4-6). The most rapidly changing of these threats arise from direct and indirect anthropogenic influences on fungal pathogens and insect pests (hereafter referred to as pests), especially their distribution and patterns of interactions. [] Here we focus on the importance of pests of planted forests, which are particularly vulnerable to invasive organisms yet are of growing importance as an economic resource and for various ecosystem services. Planted forests are typically of a single species. In plantations in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, they are usually of non-native species, such as species of Pinus, Eucalyptus, and Acacia. Northern Hemisphere plantations often comprise species of Pinus, Picea, Populus, Eucalyptus, and other genera, often in native areas or with closely related native species. These intensively managed tree farms cover huge areas [currently 7\,% and potentially 20\,% of global forests by the end of the century (1)], and they sustain major industries producing wood and pulp products. These tree genera have become natural resources of global importance, much like major agricultural crops, and are unlikely to be easily replaced. [...] [Outlook] The future of planted forests will be influenced by our ability to respond to damaging pests and the threat of biological invasions. The trends are clear, with at best a constant suite of emerging pests and sometimes a dramatically increasing rate of pest impacts. Increasing numbers of damaging hybrid genotypes and abiotic influences linked to global changes in the environment are further increasing the impact of these pests (4). It would be naïve to believe that local solutions such as quarantine at national borders can present a complete barrier to the global impact of pests on forests. For this reason, much greater focus will need to be placed on global strategies aimed at reducing pest movement and improving pest surveillance and incursion response, as well as optimizing the use of the most powerful tools to mitigate damage. [] Pest problems in forests are well recognized and of considerable concern in many parts of the world, but this is not balanced with the investment that would be required to make a significant difference. This is a situation that should change, but funding and coordinated efforts from across a variety of disciplines and institutions would be needed to make this possible. For example, all the tools and much of the knowledge exist to develop an international database on the diversity of insects and fungi associated with trees used in plantations [there are various unlinked databases on pests and diseases, and with various levels of accessibility, that could be linked via a central database such as, for example, QBOL: Quarantine organisms Barcode Of Life (www.qbol.org)]. Such a database could be powerfully linked to metadata related to host use, natural enemies, climate, surveillance tools and information, and more. [] It is not possible to predict which tree pest problems are likely to be most important and damaging in the future. The so-called unknown unknowns and black swan diseases will remain a challenge (35). The appearance of new pests can still surprise local industries and governments, and responses are often erratic and inadequate. Through a more coordinated global investment in relevant research, it should be possible to respond more rapidly and mitigate problems more effectively in the future. There are also increasing opportunities to capture the imagination and support of the public, to create awareness, and to expand the capacity for surveillance beyond the limited number of specialists, through the implementation of citizen science and crowdsourcing mechanisms. [...] [] Our capacity to deal with serious tree pest problems will remain minimal unless we can find the support and vision to launch a more global and holistic approach to study these problems and to implement mitigation strategies. [] A global strategy for dealing with pests in planted forests is urgently needed and should include: [::] A clearly identified body with the mandate to coordinate and raise funds for global responses to key pests and to monitor compliance with regulations. [::] A central database on pests and diseases of key forest plantation species. [::] Shared information on tools for and information from the surveillance of pests and pathogens in planted forests. [::] Identification of measures with potentially high global impact for pest mitigation, and support for the development and sharing of capacity. [::] More-structured systems for facilitating biological control, including global sharing of knowledge, best practices, and the selection of agents (organisms). [::] Protection of the genetic resources of the key forest plantation genera.
@article{wingfieldPlantedForestHealth2015,
title = {Planted Forest Health: {{The}} Need for a Global Strategy},
author = {Wingfield, M. J. and Brockerhoff, E. G. and Wingfield, B. D. and Slippers, B.},
year = {2015},
month = aug,
volume = {349},
pages = {832--836},
issn = {1095-9203},
doi = {10.1126/science.aac6674},
abstract = {Several key tree genera are used in planted forests worldwide, and these represent valuable global resources. Planted forests are increasingly threatened by insects and microbial pathogens, which are introduced accidentally and/or have adapted to new host trees. Globalization has hastened tree pest emergence, despite a growing awareness of the problem, improved understanding of the costs, and an increased focus on the importance of quarantine. To protect the value and potential of planted forests, innovative solutions and a better-coordinated global approach are needed. Mitigation strategies that are effective only in wealthy countries fail to contain invasions elsewhere in the world, ultimately leading to global impacts. Solutions to forest pest problems in the future should mainly focus on integrating management approaches globally, rather than single-country strategies. A global strategy to manage pest issues is vitally important and urgently needed.
[Excerpt] Forests and woodland ecosystems are a hugely important natural resource, easily overlooked and often undervalued (1-3). Globally, one in six people is estimated to rely on forests for food (3), and many more depend on forests for other critical ecosystem services, such as climate regulation, carbon storage, human health, and the genetic resources that underpin important wood and wood products-based industries. However, the health of forests, both natural and managed, is more heavily threatened at present than ever before (4-6). The most rapidly changing of these threats arise from direct and indirect anthropogenic influences on fungal pathogens and insect pests (hereafter referred to as pests), especially their distribution and patterns of interactions.
[] Here we focus on the importance of pests of planted forests, which are particularly vulnerable to invasive organisms yet are of growing importance as an economic resource and for various ecosystem services. Planted forests are typically of a single species. In plantations in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, they are usually of non-native species, such as species of Pinus, Eucalyptus, and Acacia. Northern Hemisphere plantations often comprise species of Pinus, Picea, Populus, Eucalyptus, and other genera, often in native areas or with closely related native species. These intensively managed tree farms cover huge areas [currently 7\,\% and potentially 20\,\% of global forests by the end of the century (1)], and they sustain major industries producing wood and pulp products. These tree genera have become natural resources of global importance, much like major agricultural crops, and are unlikely to be easily replaced. [...]
[Outlook]
The future of planted forests will be influenced by our ability to respond to damaging pests and the threat of biological invasions. The trends are clear, with at best a constant suite of emerging pests and sometimes a dramatically increasing rate of pest impacts. Increasing numbers of damaging hybrid genotypes and abiotic influences linked to global changes in the environment are further increasing the impact of these pests (4). It would be na\"ive to believe that local solutions such as quarantine at national borders can present a complete barrier to the global impact of pests on forests. For this reason, much greater focus will need to be placed on global strategies aimed at reducing pest movement and improving pest surveillance and incursion response, as well as optimizing the use of the most powerful tools to mitigate damage.
[] Pest problems in forests are well recognized and of considerable concern in many parts of the world, but this is not balanced with the investment that would be required to make a significant difference. This is a situation that should change, but funding and coordinated efforts from across a variety of disciplines and institutions would be needed to make this possible. For example, all the tools and much of the knowledge exist to develop an international database on the diversity of insects and fungi associated with trees used in plantations [there are various unlinked databases on pests and diseases, and with various levels of accessibility, that could be linked via a central database such as, for example, QBOL: Quarantine organisms Barcode Of Life (www.qbol.org)]. Such a database could be powerfully linked to metadata related to host use, natural enemies, climate, surveillance tools and information, and more.
[] It is not possible to predict which tree pest problems are likely to be most important and damaging in the future. The so-called unknown unknowns and black swan diseases will remain a challenge (35). The appearance of new pests can still surprise local industries and governments, and responses are often erratic and inadequate. Through a more coordinated global investment in relevant research, it should be possible to respond more rapidly and mitigate problems more effectively in the future. There are also increasing opportunities to capture the imagination and support of the public, to create awareness, and to expand the capacity for surveillance beyond the limited number of specialists, through the implementation of citizen science and crowdsourcing mechanisms. [...]
[] Our capacity to deal with serious tree pest problems will remain minimal unless we can find the support and vision to launch a more global and holistic approach to study these problems and to implement mitigation strategies.
[] A global strategy for dealing with pests in planted forests is urgently needed and should include:
[::] A clearly identified body with the mandate to coordinate and raise funds for global responses to key pests and to monitor compliance with regulations.
[::] A central database on pests and diseases of key forest plantation species.
[::] Shared information on tools for and information from the surveillance of pests and pathogens in planted forests.
[::] Identification of measures with potentially high global impact for pest mitigation, and support for the development and sharing of capacity.
[::] More-structured systems for facilitating biological control, including global sharing of knowledge, best practices, and the selection of agents (organisms).
[::] Protection of the genetic resources of the key forest plantation genera.},
journal = {Science},
keywords = {*imported-from-citeulike-INRMM,~INRMM-MiD:c-13708354,~to-add-doi-URL,forest-pests,forest-resources,global-scale,integration-techniques,invasive-species,mitigation,quarantine},
lccn = {INRMM-MiD:c-13708354},
number = {6250}
}
Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction. Ceballos, G., Ehrlich, P. R., Barnosky, A. D., García, A., Pringle, R. M., & Palmer, T. M. Science Advances, 1(5):e1400253, June, 2015. 00000
Paper doi abstract bibtex The oft-repeated claim that Earth’s biota is entering a sixth “mass extinction” depends on clearly demonstrating that current extinction rates are far above the “background” rates prevailing in the five previous mass extinctions. Earlier estimates of extinction rates have been criticized for using assumptions that might overestimate the severity of the extinction crisis. We assess, using extremely conservative assumptions, whether human activities are causing a mass extinction. First, we use a recent estimate of a background rate of 2 mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per 100 years (that is, 2 E/MSY), which is twice as high as widely used previous estimates. We then compare this rate with the current rate of mammal and vertebrate extinctions. The latter is conservatively low because listing a species as extinct requires meeting stringent criteria. Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 114 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way. Averting a dramatic decay of biodiversity and the subsequent loss of ecosystem services is still possible through intensified conservation efforts, but that window of opportunity is rapidly closing. Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years. Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years.
@article{ceballos_accelerated_2015,
title = {Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: {Entering} the sixth mass extinction},
volume = {1},
copyright = {Copyright © 2015, The Authors. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license, which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited.},
issn = {2375-2548},
shorttitle = {Accelerated modern human–induced species losses},
url = {http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/5/e1400253},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1400253},
abstract = {The oft-repeated claim that Earth’s biota is entering a sixth “mass extinction” depends on clearly demonstrating that current extinction rates are far above the “background” rates prevailing in the five previous mass extinctions. Earlier estimates of extinction rates have been criticized for using assumptions that might overestimate the severity of the extinction crisis. We assess, using extremely conservative assumptions, whether human activities are causing a mass extinction. First, we use a recent estimate of a background rate of 2 mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per 100 years (that is, 2 E/MSY), which is twice as high as widely used previous estimates. We then compare this rate with the current rate of mammal and vertebrate extinctions. The latter is conservatively low because listing a species as extinct requires meeting stringent criteria. Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 114 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way. Averting a dramatic decay of biodiversity and the subsequent loss of ecosystem services is still possible through intensified conservation efforts, but that window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years.
Humans are causing a massive animal extinction without precedent in 65 million years.},
language = {en},
number = {5},
urldate = {2015-06-20},
journal = {Science Advances},
author = {Ceballos, Gerardo and Ehrlich, Paul R. and Barnosky, Anthony D. and García, Andrés and Pringle, Robert M. and Palmer, Todd M.},
month = jun,
year = {2015},
note = {00000},
keywords = {biodiversity, boundaries, collapse},
pages = {e1400253},
file = {Ceballos et al. - 2015 - Accelerated modern human–induced species losses E.pdf:C\:\\Users\\rsrs\\Documents\\Zotero Database\\storage\\RI5B87RH\\Ceballos et al. - 2015 - Accelerated modern human–induced species losses E.pdf:application/pdf}
}